Hockey Prospect‘s draft guide is out and here are my thoughts on it (for the last two year’s go here and here). In terms of accuracy, this is how they’ve performed the last three years (compared to Red Line Report, ISS, and Hockey Prospects, all of whom also predict the entire draft): 2013 69% (1st), 2012 72% (3rd), and 2011 47% (3rd). [Note: A few readers are confused about the nature of “accuracy” when referring to any hockey guide’s success in predicting the draft when their lists are (often) intended to simply list the best players in their opinion. The “accuracy” I’m referring to is for fans in judging which list comes closest to how the draft plays out (so how accurately their list reflects what will actually happen at the draft)–it has nothing to do with the quality of any particular guide’s scouting (which would be an entirely different question). If you’re interested in draft selection versus quality of player I suggest you check out my NHL Draft Success article from April to get a sense of it, but I don’t data old enough from the guides to relate their predictions to draft success yet.] Here’s their top-30 list:
1 Bennett
2 Reinhart
3 Ekblad
4 Ehlers
5 Ritchie
6 Draisaitl
7 Dal Colle
8 Nylander
9 Larkin
10 Fleury
11 Tuch
12 Milano
13 Barbashev
14 Scherbak
15 Fiala
16 Sanheim
17 Pastrnak
18 Virtanen
19 Kapanen
20 Perlini
21 Kempe
22 Bleackley
23 Honka
24 Fabbri
25 McCann
26 Lemieux
27 Dougherty
28 Schmaltz
29 Goldobin
30 Vrana
The guide has 16 unique players listed (compared to the other big guides), all of whom are peppered throughout the sixth and seventh rounds; they have much more in common with the ISS and FC player lists than the more radical Red Line Report. Despite the girth of the guide (nearly 700 pages) it does not include any specific organisational material or a mock draft. The contents, beyond the list, consists of scouting profiles and lengthy game reports–the latter are the one unique element in the product, but I’m dubious of its value and would rather see that cut for other content.
In general I’m not fond of HP’s guide, as they offer less than FC at almost twice the price. If they can repeat their accuracy from last season, however, it remains a useful resource.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
3 Comments
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eyeonthesens 
HP and other draft guides aren’t trying to predict where guys will be drafted, their rankings are based purely on who they think will have the best career.
Hi Nick–your comment is addressed in the Red Line Report article below, but to reiterate what was said there: the “accuracy” I’m referring to is for fans in judging who gets picked from their list (so how accurately their list reflects what will actually happen at the draft)–it has nothing to do with the quality of HP’s scouting. That’s actually the point of all of this. If you’re interested in draft selection versus quality of player I suggest you check out my NHL Draft Success article (https://eyeonthesens.com/2014/04/19/nhl-draft-success-2005-08/) from April to get a sense of it, but without data from HP etc I can’t relate that information to their predictions yet.
As always, I appreciate the feedback!
[…] most accurate draft guide for the past two years (for previous reviews go here, here and here). Like Future Considerations (but unlike Red Line Report or ISS), Hockey […]