In what was described as a weak draft, it’s time to look back over the events of the past two days and assess the collective prognostication. Without further ado, here are the numbers from myself and the sources I used to make my predictions (I’m not concerned with Player X at position X, so what’s below is simply the correct player by round). Acronyms: EOTS (Eye on the Sens), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), RLR (Red Line Report), and ISS (International Scouting Service).
First Round
EOTS/HP (and Bob McKenzie): 27/30
FC: 26/30
RLR/ISS: 24/30
Highly accurate numbers all around; everyone got Ivan Barbashev wrong, with the Russian falling out of the round (Roland McKeown was the next most surprising drop); every pick this round had at least one first round selection, so there were no genuine surprises.
Second Round
EOTS: 18/30
HP: 17/30
RLR/ISS/FC: 12/30
Solid numbers for the round; all but one player with a first round vote was taken here (Jack Glover being the exception); the biggest surprise pick was Alex Lintuniemi, whose highest selection was in the 5th round (FC) and was not included in the draft by ISS and HP; Vitek Vanecek also surprised (no one had him higher than fourth)
Third Round
EOTS/ISS: 8/30
HP/RLR: 7/30
FC: 3/30
Aussie Nathan Walker was an odd pick here, as Washington already had him on an AHL-deal this past season; Elvis Merzlikins only had one source put him in the draft (RLR in the sixth), as did Jonas Johansson (FC); Kyle Wood and Mark Friedman were also surprise picks
Fourth Round
HP/FC: 7/30
RLR: 5/30
EOTS: 4/30
ISS: 2/30
Quite a few unranked players were taken here (Christoffer Ehn, Devon Toews, Sam Lafferty, and Danton Heinin) and they were coupled with innumerable off-the-wall selections
Fifth Round
HP: 5/30
RLR/ISS: 3/30
FC: 2/30
EOTS: 1/30
Five more unranked players were taken (three Europeans and a pair of junior-B players), joining the mishmash of swings for the fences one expects in a weak draft; Gustav Forsling, a projected second-rounder for some, was finally picked
Sixth Round
HP: 4/30
ISS/FC: 2/30
EOTS/RLR: 0/30
Thirteen players (over a third of the round) taken were not ranked coming into the draft; Adam Ollas Mattsson, expected to go in the second round, was finally picked
Seventh Round
EOTS/ISS/RLR: 2/30
HP/FC: 1
Another nine unranked players were taken; the highly regarded Emil Johansson was finally selected, as was Spencer Watson
Total
HP: 71/210
EOTS: 60/210
FC/ISS/RLR: 53/210
Congratulations to HP whose 33% is quite high for by-round predictions. The more important number is how many players selected were actually taken in the draft, and here’s how we all did (with variance from last year noted):
EOTS/HP: 149/210 (71%) +2%
FC: 145/210 (69%) +1%
RLR: 136/210 (64%) -3%
ISS: 132/210 (62%) -3%
Once again I finished tied with HP, so all credit to them (two years running). It’s a slight improvement on last year for both, although my specific accuracy slipped slightly while HP’s improved. I have to admit, if HP is at the top next year I may retire my own version of predictions (there’s not much point if my method can’t out pick a single source).
The highest ranked players to fall out of the draft were Vladimir Tkachev and Sebastian Aho, both of whom I had pegged for early in the third round, but their size seems to have scared teams away.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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