Senators News & Notes

The Sens lost 2-1 to Florida in a shootout in a game where they basically didn’t deserve even a point.  Dave Cameron showed his lack of imagination by barely playing either Ryan Dzingel or Shane Prince and continuing to give us a steady diet of guys who are “good in the corners” (David Dziurzynski now has the NHL’s worst Corsi rating).

6th sens

Nichols points to Ottawa’s December-slide and their continuing poor underlying numbers.  You’d think something like this would alert the organisation to the reality of analytics, but we all know how they think–they will blame the schedule and think about how if they had just a bit more toughness and ‘compete level’ everything would be alright….

I bring this up just for Nichols:

Dzingel has never appeared or earned an honorable mentionable in one of ESPN Insider’s Corey Pronman top 10 prospects lists for the Senators since his draft year

Take this as a sign about Pronman’s ability to assess prospects.  I know ESPN pays him to write things about prospects and you want to rely on a professional since you don’t pay attention to prospects, but the proof is in the pudding and his track record with Ottawa is awful.  Anyone who has watched Ryan Dzingel play or paid attention to his career is not surprised by the recall.

STATS

I stumbled across this the other day and it’s a quote I think is well-worth sharing:

It’s not hard to see why MSM [mainstream media] would hate advanced stats, of course. It undercuts their voice of authority and takes away from the ability to craft a narrative at will. Why take at face value a story from an MSM member about a certain player “always crumbling under pressure” when you can see an argument, with numbers readily available to anybody with some time on their hands, showing that might not be the case.

We can add to this that many of them find understanding advanced stats difficult, putting them in a position to be embarrassed by the general public, so rather than admit ignorance they simply attack the system and its advocates.

Binghamton_Senators_svg

Jeff Ulmer has a post praising both Fredrik Claesson and Ryan Dzingel and I thought I’d add my own two cents on both players:

The 23-year-old Swede is playing the role of a mentor this season being paired up with rookie Ben Harpur

Claesson has played 14 of his 26 games paired with the hapless Harpur.  Here are his numbers with each partner:
Harpur 14-1-3-4 -10
Carlisle 7-1-2-3 +2
Tuzzolino 5-0-1-1 +2
There’s little question that Harpur is the primary drag for Freddy.

He excels on the penalty kill and is always the one out on the ice killing penalties and the occasional five on three situations.

This brings up one of the weirdest stats I’ve tracked: he’s been on-ice for a disproportionate number of powerplay goals against (19 of 25), far above any other defender (his usual PK partner Michael Kostka is next at 12; Patrick Mullen is at 7, Mark Fraser at 6, Guillaume Lepine at 4, and Tuzzolino and Harpur at 1 each).  Is this simply bad luck for Claesson?  A larger sample size is needed before I’d be comfortable saying either way, but it’s something to keep in mind.

There has been some rumors that he might return to his homeland and play for his beloved Djurgården hockey team in Johanneshov, Sweden if Ottawa doesn’t tender a new contract after signing an extension over the off season

I hadn’t heard this particular rumour before, although I’d be shocked if Ottawa didn’t offer him a contract extension.

Moving on to the recalled and returned Ryan Dzingel:

Might need to add some weight as his speed will work in the AHL but that could be an issue when facing bigger, more experienced players in the NHL. He’s got time in his development to fill out while continue to improve in finishing out his play-making abilities while carrying the puck in the offensive zone. Should be a strong contender for next year’s opportunity in training camp as he’s still a ways off before getting a call.

I think Jeff means he may need to add some strength rather than size (added size would dilute one of his assets, namely speed).  Dzingel‘s NHL-potential is hard to assess as yet, but he certainly has the hands and speed to play (reminiscent of Mike Hoffman in that respect), but this is an organisation that jerks their skilled players around, so it’s hard to see what Dzingel‘s fate will be moving forward.  It is a positive that he was recalled over Matt Puempel.

There’s less to say from Jeff’s piece on Dzingel, but I’ll add he was given a bit of the Tobias Lindberg treatment in his rookie season as Luke Richardson jerked him around the lineup and periodically benched him for worse players.  This season at least, Dzingel is getting the opportunities he deserves at the AHL-level.

prospects

QMHL
Francis Perron (Rouyn-Noranda) 31-25-33-58
Now third in the league in scoring (also third in points-per-game)
Filip Chlapik
(Charlottetown) 26-6-17-23
Is with the Czech WJC team
Tomas Chabot
(Saint John) 22-7-13-20
Is with Canada’s WJC team
Gabriel Gagne (Victoriaville/Shawinigan) 6-4-3-7
Traded to Shawinigan on the 20th; has been injured most of the year

USHL
Joel Daccord (Muskegon) 9-7-1 2.67 .906
Dropped to 17th in league save percentage

NCAA
Colin White (Boston College) 16-8-15-23
Playing on the US WJC team
Christian Wolanin (U North Dakota) 16-3-5-8
Third on the team in blueline scoring
Quentin Shore (U Denver) 16-4-4-8
Starting to produce
Kelly Summers
(Clarkson U) 15-0-6-6
No change since last time
Robert Baillargeon
(Boston U) 17-3-3-6
Continues to struggle in his junior season
Shane Eiserman (New Hampshire) 15-0-6-6
At about the same pace as his rookie season
Miles Gendron (Connecticut) 12-2-3-5
Third on the team in blueline scoring
Chris Leblanc (Merrimack) 14-1-1-2
Continues along his ugly junior season

Sweden
Marcus Hogberg (Linkoping) 8-3-3 2.64 .897
Hasn’t played since last time
Andreas Englund (Djurgardens) 24-1-0-1
With Sweden’s WJC team
Filip Ahl
(HV71) 12-0-0-0 (HV71 Jr) 18-18-13-31
Crushing Swedish junior (fourth in overall scoring, first in points-per-game)
Christian Jaros (Lulea) 3-0-0-0 (Asploven Jr) 22-2-3-5
Continues to be 5th in scoring from the blueline

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Advertisements

2 Comments

  1. Claeson,whom i have watched for years is just an average minor league defenceman.doesn’t do anything particularly well or badly.the hype on him a few years ago was rather strange.
    Dzingel will play in the nhl but not with the sens. He will be packaged alongwith a second round pick for joe corvo,or a taller player.
    You are right about the game having passed murray by. Analytics,however,is not the answer.

    • Oh Joe Corvo–if only he wasn’t retired
      Claesson doesn’t have the puck-moving chops for the NHL, but he’s better than Borowiecki, which is apparently all you need to play bottom pair on the Sens
      You have to fill me in–why is analytics not the answer?


Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s