Binghamton Senators: Number Crunching

At the end of last season I did a “with-or-without” list for players versus team-performance and I was curious where things stood with that stat this year.  For those unfamiliar with the idea, what you’re looking for is significant impact of a player being in (or out) of the lineup in terms of wins and losses.  The more games played the more a player’s numbers will regress to the mean.  For the numbers below I excluded those with minimal games played (so Erkamps, GrantDunn, Loiselle, and Doornbosch).  Before the individual stats we can compare this year’s team to last years (for the latter go here, with green representing improvement, red decline):

7-17-2 (0.30), 29th in the league/10-17-3 (0.38), 30th in the league
Goals For: 2.73/2.33 (-0.40)
Goals Against: 3.61/3.33 (+0.28)
PP: 14.6 (13 goals)/11.7 (13 goals) (-2.9%, goals even)
PK: 79.2 (25 against)/78.8 (21 against) (-0.4%, -4 goals)
Win/loss when scoring a PPG: 4-5-1/5-4-2 (slight improvement)
Win/loss when surrendering a PPG: 3-13-1/7-11-1 (improved)

So what has the Kurt Kleinendorst accomplished?  He’s played four more games than at the same point last year and arrives with a slightly better winning percentage.  Offensively the team continues a decline whose trend goes back a few seasons, but defensively there’s been marginal improvement.  On special teams the offensive decline is present and the PK isn’t any better, although the impact of special teams on results is heading in the right direction.  It’s not included above, but Binghamton gives up far fewer penalties than under Luke Richardson’s limp regime.  I’m inclined to put most of the blame on the teams struggles on management–this is their assembly of talent–but Kleinendorst doesn’t get off scot-free.  I’ll delve more into where I think he deserves blame below.

Winning Percentage Individual Numbers (the team is 0.38)
Gabriel Gagne 0.55
Jason Akeson 0.45
Chad Nehring 0.44
Nick Paul 0.42
Chris Carlisle 0.41
Ben Harpur 0.41
Patrick Sieloff 0.40
Alex Krushelnyski 0.40
Fredrik Claesson 0.40
Mike Blunden 0.39
TEAM 0.38
Francis Perron 0.38
Casey Bailey 0.38
Jack Rodewald 0.38
Kyle Flanagan 0.37
Buddy Robinson 0.37
Gulliaume Lepine 0.36
Chris Rumble 0.35
Andreas Englund 0.34
Curtis Lazar 0.34
Mike Kostka 0.33
Phil Varone 0.31
Ryan Rupert 0.31
Zack Stortini 0.29

The least surprising thing about this data is the drag Stortini is on team performance–he’s a terrible player who has neither the speed nor skill to help his teammates.  No one should get excited about Gagne‘s number here–it’s a small sample size during which individually he’s done nothing (10-0-0-0).  Both Akeson and Nehring are quickly regressing to the mean, so on the top side there’s nothing truly notable.  On the bottom end it’s interesting seeing Varone and Kostka well below the norm–this could be a symptom of being overplayed (particularly in the latter’s case)–albeit it’s still a little alarming.  I think where you can question Kleinendorst is in player usage–who he dresses, who he starts, etc, and there’s room for improvement here (albeit we can’t know how hamstrung he is by management edicts).

Here are some other numbers:

Powerplay Leaders
Kostka 5
Rodewald 4
Bailey 4
Carlisle 4
Varone 3
Rumble 3

Even Strength Leaders
McCormick 13
Varone 12
Flanagan 12
Bailey 10
Blunden 9
Paul 9
Robinson 9

Shot Support for Goaltenders (as in, a better shots-for than shots-against ratio)
Matt O’Connor 8-10
Chris Driedger 8-1
Andrew Hammond 2-0
Scott Greenham 0-2

I included this stat simply because of how much more support Driedger has received.  Last year I noted there was more scoring when he was between the pipes–I have no explanation to offer here, I just find it interesting.

A selective Binghamton ‘Where Are They Now’ from last season (Luke Richardson remains unemployed):
Cole Schneider (AHL Rochester) 25-11-17-28
Leads the Amerks in scoring
Eric O’Dell (KHL HK Sochi) 34-5-8-13
He’s 7th in team scoring
David Dziurzynski (DEL Iserlohn) 30-6-5-11
Middling numbers in Germany
Jerome Leduc (Czech Pardubice) 31-3-5-8
2nd in blueline scoring
Travis Ewanyk (ECHL Idaho) 28-12-11-23
Doing well at the level he belongs
Michael Keranen (KHL/Liiga Jokerit/Ilves) 7-1-2-3
Struggling mightily since leaving the Minnesota organisation
Danny Hobbs (Denmark Sonderjysk) 26-9-18-27
Randy Lee-favourite has found a good league for his skills
Mark Fraser (AHL Bakersfield) 25-0-1-1
Being big and fast continues to give him unwarranted opportunities
Ryan Penny (ECHL Reading) 28-6-13-19
Third in team scoring
Nick Tuzzolino (ACH Stoney Creek) 8-0-7-7
If you’re asking wtf is the ACH it’s the Allen Cup League

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)


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