Ottawa Senators Draft Trends

I was going to wait for Ary M and Colin’s draft series to conclude before putting out anything of my own, but as that’s going to stretch on for quite some time I decided to move ahead. The Senators have followed particular trends since John Muckler was fired in 2007, and ignoring that specific draft (since Bryan Murray’s people were not in place for it), let’s look at the trends from 2008 until the present.  Before we dig into the numbers, here are the current picks for Ottawa: 28th, 47th (Cal), 121st, 183rd (their 2nd is with Tor, 3rd to Chi (via Car), 5th to Pit, 7th to SJ).

First Round
1-6/11 Mika Zibanejad – 6’2; Djurgardens (SuperElit/SHL/WJC-18)
1-9/09 Jared Cowen (D) – 6’5; Spokane (WHL)
1-11/16 Logan Brown – 6’6; Windsor (OHL; WJC-18)
1-13/13 Curtis Lazar – 6’0; Edmonton (WHL)
1-15/08 Erik Karlsson (D) – 5’ll; Frolunda (SuperElit/WJC-18)
1-15/12 Cody Ceci (D) – 6’2; Ottawa (OHL)
1-18/15 Thomas Chabot (D) – 6’2; Saint John (QMJHL)
1-21/11 Stefan Noesen – 6’1; Plymouth (OHL)
1-21/15 Colin White – 6’1; USDP (WJC-18)
1-24/11 Matt Puempel – 6’2; Peterborough (OHL)

Second Round
2-36/15 Gabriel Gagne – 6’5; Victoriaville (QMJHL)
2-39/09 Jakob Silverberg – 6’1; Brynas (SuperElit)
2-40/14 Andreas Englund (D) – 6’3; Djurgardens (SuperElit; WJC-18)
2-42/08 Patrick Wiercioch (D) – 6’5; Omaha (USHL)
2-42/16 Jonathan Dahlen – 5’11; Timra (Allsvenskan)
2-46/09 Robin Lehner (G) – 6’3; Frolunda (SuperElit)
2-48/15 Filip Chlapik – 6’1; Charlottetown (QMJHL)
2-61/11 Shane Prince – 5’10; Ottawa (OHL)

Third Round
3-70/14 Miles Gendron (D) – 6’3; The Rivers (USHS)
3-76/10 Jakub Culek – 6’3; Rimouski (QMJHL)
3-76/12 Chris Driedger (G) – 6’4; Calgary (WHL)
3-78/13 Marcus Hogberg (G) – 6’5; Linkoping (SuperElit)
3-79/08 Zack Smith – overage; 6’2; Swift Current (WHL)
3-82/12 Jarrod Maidens – 6’1; Owen Sound (OHL)

Fourth Round
4-96/11 Jean-Gabriel Pageau – 5’9; Gatineau (QMJHL)
4-100/09 Chris Wideman (D) – 5’10; Miami (NCAA)
4-100/14 Shane Eiserman – 6’2; Dubuque (USHL)
4-102/13 Tobias Lindberg – 6’2; Djurgardens (SuperElit)
4-103/16 Todd Burgess – 6’2; Fairbanks (NAHL)
4-106/10 Marcus Sorensen – 5’11; Sodertalje (SuperElit)
4-106/12 Tim Boyle (D) – 6’2; Noble & Greenough (USHS)
4-107/15 Christian Wolanin (D) – 6’1; Muskegon (USHL)
4-108/13 Ben Harpur (D) – 6’6; Guelph (OHL)
4-109/08 Andre Petersson – 5’10; HV71 (SuperElit; WJC-18)
4-109/15 Filip Ahl – 6’3; HV71 (SuperElit; WJC-18)
4-119/08 Derek Grant – 6’3; Langley (BCHL)

Fifth Round
5-126/11 Fredrik Claesson – 6’0; Djurgardens (SHL)
5-130/09 Mike Hoffman – overage; 6’1; Drummondville (QMJHL)
5-133/16 Maxime Lajoie (D) _ 6’0; Swift Current (WHL)
5-136/12 Robert Baillargeon – 6’0; Indiana (USHL)
5-138/13 Vincent Dunn – 6’0; Val-d’Or (QMJHL)
5-139/08 Mark Borowiecki (D) – 6’1; Smith Falls (CJHL)
5-139/15 Christian Jaros (D) – 6’3; Lulea (SHL; WJC-20)
5-146/09 Jeff Costello – 5’11; Cedar Rapids (USHL)

Sixth Round
6-156/11 Darren Kramer – overage; 6’1; Spokane (WHL)
6-160/09 Corey Cowick – 6’3; Ottawa (OHL)
6-161/13 Chris Leblanc – 6’3; overage; South Shore (EJHL)
6-163/16 Markus Nurmi – 6’3; TPS (U20; WJC-18)
6-166/12 Francois Brassard (G) – 6’1; Quebec (QMJHL)
6-168/13 Quentin Shore – 6’2; Denver (NCAA)
6-171/11 Max McCormick – 5’11; Sioux City (USHL)
6-178/10 Mark Stone – 6’2; Brandon (WHL)

Seventh Round
7-186/11 Jordan Fransoo (D) – 6’3; Brandon (WHL)
7-189/14 Kelly Summers (D) – 6’1; Carleton (CCHL)
7-190/09 Brad Peltz – 6’0; Avon (USHS)
7-190/14 Francis Perron – 6’0; Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
7-191/09 Michael Sdao (D) – 6’4; Lincoln (USHL)
7-196/10 Bryce Aneloski (D) – overage 6’2; Cedar Rapids (USHL)
7-196/12 Mikael Wikstrand (D) – 6’2; Mora (Allsvenskan)
7-199/08 Emil Sandin – 5’10; Brynas (SuperElit)
7-199/15 Joel Daccord (G) – 6’2; Cushing (USHS)
7-204/11 Ryan Dzingel – 6’0; Lincoln (USHL)

So, basic numbers first (through 9 drafts):
CHL (OHL, WHL, QMJHL, tier-2): 28
US systems (USHS, USHL, NCAA): 18
Europe (Sweden, Finland): 16
Goaltenders: 5 (2 CHL, 2 Sweden, 1 US)
Defensemen: 20 (9 CHL, 7 US, 4 Sweden)
Forwards: 37 (17 CHL, 10 Sweden, 10 US)

Thoughts: in general there’s not much preference, other than the restriction of CHL, US, and Swedish systems.  There are trends within those limitations, but I’ll get to them later.

First-rounders (10): 7 CHL, 2 Sweden, 1 US; 4 Defensemen
Second-rounders (8): 4 Sweden, 3 CHL, 1 US; 1 Goalie, 2 Defensemen
Third-rounders (6): 4 CHL, 1 Swede, 1 US; 2 Goalies, 1 Defenseman
Fourth-rounders (12): 5 US, 4 Sweden, 3 CHL; 4 Defensemen
Fifth-rounders (8): 4 CHL, 2 Sweden, 2 US; 4 Defensemen
Sixth-rounders (8): 4 CHL, 3 US, 1 Finland; 1 Goalie
Seventh-rounders (10): 5 US, 3 CHL, 2 Sweden; 1 Goalie, 5 Defensemen

Thoughts: with few exceptions, the top-90 picks will be either from the CHL or Sweden; there has been a shift towards the CHL for the first-round (5 straight selections are from Canadian junior), but otherwise this preference is unchanged. The org also likes to stash various players in college or Europe from the fourth-round onwards (all tier-2 picks are within this range as well as 15 of the 18 US selections; in total 27 of 38 have more time on the development clock). What’s also clear is that goaltenders are not first-round material (we haven’t had even a second round selection since 2009).

Size*
6’0: Peltz (09), Claesson (11), Dzingel (11), Baillargeon (12), Lazar (13), Dunn (13), Perron (14), Lajoie (16)
Under 6’0: Karlsson (08), Peterson (08), Sandin (08), Wideman (09), Costello (09), Sorensen (10), Prince (11), Pageau (11), McCormick (11), Dahlen (16)
Goalies 6’0 and under: none
Defenseman under 6’0: Karlsson (08), Wideman (09)
*we can quibble over size all day long, since teams tend to “grow” players, but for the sake of simplicity I’m using what’s listed on Elite Prospects

Thoughts: it’s painfully obvious that whatever tolerance the organisation had for smaller players has ebbed away.  Since 2011 only one player under 6’0 has been drafted (Dahlen), and he was subsequently moved.  Five players at the bubble height have been taken in that time, with one already moved (Lazar), one failed (Dunn), one unsigned (Baillargeon), and the other two undetermined (Perron and Lajoie). In essence the Senators will not take a smaller player outside of extraordinary circumstances.

Trends:
-First-round players are from the CHL and will not be a goalie
-Rounds 1-3 are from the CHL or Sweden
-No goaltenders until round 3 at the earliest
-Always 1 player from Sweden and 1 from the US systems taken; there’s also been at least one French-Canadian player picked since 2008
-Despite having done so in the past, it’s unlikely the Sens will take a tier-2 or NCAA player (just 1 in the last 8 years and 1 in the last 7 respectively)
-Despite taking a Finnish player last year, Ottawa does not draft from anywhere in Europe outside of Sweden
-Russians are not drafted regardless of circumstances
-Size is important; just one player under 6’0 has been taken the last five drafts; no goalie 6’0 or smaller has ever been drafted by this org; there hasn’t been a D under 6’0 since 2009
-The org has relied more on the Q than the OHL and WHL of late (4 of the 6 players drafted from the CHL in the last 3 years have been from the Q)
-As much as Dorion/Lee still overvalue toughness, they haven’t drafted a bonafide goon since Kramer (2011); they may also be moving away from drafting agitators/pests, as neither Dunn (13) nor Eiserman (14) have panned out; perhaps they’re settling on big as opposed to targeting aggression

I’ll get into my specific picks for Ottawa subsequently, but with all the mock drafts out there (and more forthcoming) I think remembering the tendencies of what the org actually does will get you closer to what’s actually likely.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)