It’s draft prep time for me which is both enormously fun and an enormous amount of work (there’s also a BSens piece in the pipeline).  That said, there are plenty of Sens things to talk about, so without further ado, here we go.

I’ve never been a fan of BLT‘s, but BLT offers The Silver Seven‘s primer on the expansion draft (it’s pure information rather than Sens speculation).  Looking at SensChirps article about the same it’s funny/horrifying to see how his polls reflect the org’s backwards thinking so accurately–presumably it’s where the Mark Borowiecki fan club hangs out.

Speaking of SS7, I want whatever Colin4000 is smoking, as his piece assessing the organisation includes this gem:

Then came the trade deadline, which is what really pushed Dorion into NHL Awards territory. He recognized the Sens’ gaping need for depth, and contrary to the years of Bryan Murray, he went out and got it. Brought into the lineup were Tommy Wingels, Alex Burrows (albeit at a steep price), Viktor Stalberg and Jyrki Jokipakka, who all helped solidify the Sens’ lineup.

I remember those Jokipakka games vividly.  Remember that time he…?  No, wait, there was that other time he…?  Clearly Guy Boucher forgot he was on the roster just like the rest of us.  None of Wingels, Stalberg, or Burrows achieved anything during the playoffs–the only arguments you’ll get to the contrary is that they were better than the alternatives, which isn’t much of an argument.

One other thing I want to talk about from his article (since I’ve seen versions of it from many others) is this:

It’s easy to remember the poor decisions and criticize

Actually, it’s far easier to praise.  Criticism is difficult to do, which is why good critical content is so hard to find (I’m not sure The Ottawa Sun has ever produced any).  So no, there hasn’t been “too much” criticism of the Sens this year (as the saying goes, “Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed. Everything else is public relations”–for those curious as to the source of this quote, have fun going down the rabbit-hole).

Ryan Stimson posted a fascinating document that includes analytics highlights as he proposes a new system for NHL teams to follow (while recognizing the arch-conservative league is unlikely to do so).  Something in particular that stands out to me is Stimson’s emphasis on offense when so many coaches focus on defense (Guy Boucher certainly fits that category).  Another thing that struck me was a Dawson Sprigings piece from the fall where he talked about the benefits of spreading out elite players in the lineup, which is a complimentary but slightly more evolved take on Alex Novet’s that I mentioned back in April.  The idea is that if you have more than one elite player (so this wouldn’t apply to Ottawa), it’s better to spread them out as opposed to having them on the same line (you can see this operating in Pittsburgh, for example).

Speaking of analytics, it was nice to hear Peter Laviolette pays attention to it now. The NHL is an imitative league and if Nashville wins the Cup a few more dinosaurs in management will be forced to listen to reason (not in Ottawa, however).

Travis Yost is very excited about the Jake Guentzel‘s playoff run, and while all the signs for him being a productive NHL player are there (good NCAA stats, good AHL stats), it’s worth pointing out that playoff stats, even extraordinary ones, are not necessarily predictors of the future (especially if that player is being supported by a superstar).  The simplest examples are Chris Kontos (1989) and John Druce (1990).  Kontos scored 9 goals in 11 games riding shotgun with Wayne Gretzky in LA; he had one good NHL season with Tampa afterwards before fading away completely. Druce‘s season was with Washington (14 goals in 15 games); his career slipped away more gradually, as he was able to function as a depth player before finally leaving to play in Germany.  I’d take the performance with a grain of salt.

Two more free agents were signed off my list, as forwards Henrik Haapala (Florida) and former King pick Tomas Hyka (Vegas) were signed.  Also signed (by Chicago) was 26-year old Czech defenseman Jan Rutta.  This brings the total up to twenty (8 forwards, 11 blueliners, 1 goalie), which is approaching the usual NCAA high tide.  In terms of which teams are dipping into the EU pool:
Arizona: 1
Buffalo: 1
Chicago: 2
Detroit: 2
Florida: 1
LA: 1
LV: 2
Montreal: 1
Nashville: 1
NJ: 1
NYR: 1
San Jose: 2
Toronto: 3
Vancouver: 1
That’s 14 of 31 franchises

For comparison, these are the NCAA FA’s signed this season (22): defenseman Neal Pionk (NYR), Alex Iafallo (LA), goaltender Hunter Miska (Ari), goaltender Shane Starrett (Edm), goaltender Angus Redmond (Ana), Mike Vecchione (Phi), defenseman Nick Desimone (San Jose), C. J. Smith (Buf), Justin Kloos (Min), Griffen Molino (Van), Joe Gambardella (Edm), defenseman Michael Kapla (NJ), defenseman Vince Pedrie (NYR), Vinni Lettieri (NYR), John Stevens (NYI), defenseman Josh Healey (Cal), goaltender Chris Nell (NYR), Mitch Hults (Ana), Tim Clifton (SJ), Sam Vigneault (Clb), defenseman Gavin Bayreuther (Dal), and Zach Aston-Reese (Pit).  The list includes 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 4 goaltenders.  By franchise:
Ana: 2
Ari: 1
Buf: 1
Cal: 1
Clb: 1
Dal: 1
Edm: 2
LA: 1
Min: 1
NJ: 1
NYI: 1
NYR: 4
Phi: 1
Pit: 1
SJ: 2
Van: 1
That’s 16 of 31 franchises

Seven teams appear on both lists (Ari, Buf, LA, NJ, NYR, SJ, and Van), meaning that a combined 23 of 31 teams availed themselves of free agents from either source. The teams on the outside looking in include Ottawa, Boston, Carolina, Colorado, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington and Winnipeg.  There are, of course, a small number of junior league free agents signed (5): goaltender Matiss Edmunds Kivlenieks out of the USHL (Clb), Dawson Leedahl (NYR), Antoine Waked (Mtl), Giovanni Fiore (Ana), and defenseman Jalen Chatfield (Van) from the CHL, but all of these come from the group of teams that signed FA’s from the usual sources.  The question remains: are the eight teams shooting blanks doing so intentionally or are they simply unable to compete with what the other franchises are offering?  I suspect the latter.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 8, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

With both the expansion and entry draft ahead there’s roster uncertainty ahead for the nascent Belleville Senators, but there’s a lot we do know about the Sens affiliate, so it’s worth going through it.

First, let’s start with some basic AHL information: teams are permitted six “veteran” players (veteran status is determined this way: only five players can have more than a combined 320 AHL, NHL, or European league games under their belt, with the sixth vet at 320 and under; CHL players must turn 20 in that calendar year (as in the first half of the season), or else have played in 4 CHL seasons.

Historically Ottawa’s AHL affiliates have frittered away their veteran contracts with useless “character” players (examples from the last ten years: Zack Stortini (x2), Brad Mills, Tyler Eckford, Hugh Jessiman, Mark Parrish, Francis Lessard, Jeremy Yablonski, Geoff Waugh, and Greg Amadio), and Pierre Dorion has shown the same tendency in his short tenure (so keep that in mind).  Here’s the list of signed players who can or will play for Belleville next season (broken down by position, rookies in italics, veterans in bold, I’ve given their current age as well):

Goaltenders (1)
Marcus Hogberg (22, 2 year ELC)

Defensemen (8)
Thomas Chabot (20, ELC)
Cody Donaghey (21, 2 year ELC)
Macoy Erkamps (22, 2 more years)
Andreas Englund (21, 2 more years)
Ben Harpur (22, 1 more year)
Christian Jaros (21, ELC)
Maxime Lajoie (19, ELC) – while AHL-eligible he could return to junior
Jordan Murray (24, 2 year AHL contract)

Forwards (9) [Logan Brown is signed but isn’t AHL-eligible]
Mike Blunden (1 more year)
Filip Chlapik (20, ELC)
Chris DiDomenico* (28, 1 year)
Vincent Dunn (21, 1 more year)
Kyle Flanagan (28, 1 more year on his AHL contract)
Gabriel Gagne (20, 2 more years)
Nick Paul (22, 1 more year)
Francis Perron (21, 2 more years)
Colin White (20, 2 more years)
* I’m assuming his time in Italian leagues count

Theoretically the Sens have two other draft picks to make decisions on (both NCAA grads: Chris Leblanc (6-161/13) and Robert Baillargeon (5-136/12)), but at this point it seems unlikely they will be signed (other than, perhaps, the former getting an AHL or ECHL contract).  Among the other draft picks the only conceivable signing (to my mind) would be Filip Ahl (4-109/15), but it’s more likely they’ll let him play another year before making a decision on him.

Here are the RFA and UFA situations from the 2016-17 roster (again, broken down by position):

Goaltenders (3)
Chris Driedger (23, RFA)
Scott Greenham (30, had an AHL contract)
Matt O’Connor (25, RFA)

Defensemen (5)
Chris Carlisle (22, had an AHL contract)
Brandon Gormley (25, UFA)
Guillaume Lepine (30, had an AHL contract)
Chris Rumble (27, had an AHL contract)
Patrick Sieloff (23, RFA)

Forwards (8)
Jason Akeson (27, had an AHL contract)
Casey Bailey (25, UFA)
Marc Hagel (28, UFA)
Alex Krushelnyski (26, had an AHL contract)
Max McCormick (25, UFA)
Chad Nehring (29, UFA)
Jack Rodewald (23, had an AHL contract)
Ryan Rupert (23, RFA)
Phil Varone (26, UFA)

Here are my thoughts by position:

Goaltenders

Signing Marcus Hogberg (3-78/13) signals that one of Matt O’Connor (NCAA FA 2015) or Chris Driedger (3-76/12) is on their way out.  While the difference between the two isn’t large, O’Connor is older and shown little sign of improvement, so I’d guess Driedger will be retained (he’d also be cheaper).  There’s the possibility Andrew Hammond could be buried in the AHL this season, but I doubt Melnyk will tolerate his salary rotting away, so I expect the org to remove him one way or another.  On the ECHL side of things it would be easy to retain Scott Greenham, despite a subpar year, but they could easily sign another ‘tender to replace him.
Expectation: Driedger/Hogberg; ECHL Greenham 50/50

Defensemen

I suspect Chabot (1-18/15) will play in the NHL, but even so it’s a crowded blueline, as such I suspect that Lajoie (5-133/16) will be returned to junior for his final WHL season.  There’s no chance former Arizona first-round pick Gormley (1-13/10) sticks around and we can hope that we’ve seen the last of ECHLer Lepine.  The org could keep Sieloff–he’s an unremarkable defensive defenseman, but decent AHL depth (my guess is no, but the possibility remains). I suspect Carlisle will be retained (both Richardson and Kleinendorst liked him), especially if he’s willing to accept an AHL contract, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rumble walked (he could make good money in Europe).
Expectation: Donaghey, Erkamps, Englund, Harpur, Jaros, Murray, Carlisle, plus a FA signing (a veteran)

Forwards

As large as this group seems, Dunn (5-138/13), assuming he’s not moved, will be buried in the ECHL.  I also believe White (1-21/15) will remain in the NHL, leaving us with seven players signed.  I suspect the org would like to keep Varone, but he may decide to explore his options (I believe Akeson will leave on his own accord, just as he did last season–his return to the team early last season was unplanned).  Of the remaining players the org will fall over itself to re-sign McCormick (6-171/11), with the possibility they’ll give him a one-way deal (something I see as likely).  We could see Rodewald get another AHL-contract and the team might try to keep Bailey, but the rest are gone.
Expectation: Blunden, Chlapik, DiDomenico, Flanagan, Gagne, Paul, Perron, Rodewald, Varone; four or five other players will be signed including at least one veteran

This would make for a very inexperienced roster, particularly on the blueline and in net, but with more talent than the previous season.  What Belleville really needs is scoring and it remains to be seen if DiDomenico can show the touch he had in Europe (he’ll need support regardless).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 3, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments