As the pain of the Alex DeBrincat trade subsides (The Athletic also roasted Dorion), we got an org move that I’ve been expecting since February (when Troy Mann was fired), as his brother Trent was fired. Trent Mann has been with the organization since 2011 and run the drafts since 2017 (which is to say, he’s run all of Dorion’s drafts). The theory about why Troy was fired has long been that Dorion didn’t want an independent voice talking to new ownership about his many boondoggles–Trent is cut from the same cloth as Troy and as new ownership is about to take over, it’s time to go. If Andlauer has any hockey sense at all, Dorion will be gone ASAP regardless (something I believe can’t happen earlier than September, at which point he might be allowed to remain throughout the season until he can be properly be replaced next year). We already have two new long term contracts the org will have to deal with in future (Korpisalo and MacEwen), and the cap space cleared by moving DeBrincat gives Dorion the opportunity to add more. If I’m Andlauer, I don’t want him to do anymore damage than he already has. One positive is that almost all his prior mistakes (in terms of dead cap and retained salary) end after this season (only Colin White lasts forever). The Sens have three serious financial headaches going forward at the moment (Korpisalo, Forsberg, and Mathieu Joseph, tallying 9.7 million combined), but Dorion could make that worse.

Back to Trent, I’ve long taken issue with his public comments that he no longer wants to take chances on skilled players. It’s fair to say that this is as much Dorion’s edict as Mann’s. We know that Dorion, as a former scout, can push for picks that he wants, so when we look at Trent’s drafts we can’t know where his GM has overruled him (it’s more likely in early rounds, but we can’t limit it to that). We also know that either Dorion, Mann, or both have a passion for players whose fathers were in the NHL (my guess is this is a Dorion thing, who likes the ego stroke of their fathers being connected to the team). The idea of bloodlines being meaningful has no real basis, but the team clearly thinks it does (cf). That said, let’s look at Trent’s drafts (my scale of success is a player who has or will play 200+ NHL games):

2017 (2-2-0)
1-28 Shane Bowers (USHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 174-31-35-66) – hard worker, but scouts saw all sorts of red flags and they were right; dumped as part of the Duchene trade; Colorado then dumped him on Boston who in turn sent him to New Jersey
2-47 Alex Formenton (OHL; NHL 109-23-16-39; AHL 76-31-26-57) – outside his (still unresolved) personal issues, he’s an excellent pick (via the link you can see Pronman faceplant in his analysis, but people like Hockey Prospect were on the money), although he remains a dead asset until the aforementioned are decided (the NHL has taken its time for fear of being sued is my guess–his Wiki is completely scrubbed which is interesting)
4-121 Drake Batherson (QMJHL; NHL 227-62-97-159; AHL 103-38-78-116) – a fantastic pick based on skill (I was very happy with it at the time); he was also under the Formenton cloud, but that seems to have been baseless
6-183 Jordan Hollett (WHL; retired) – he’s big, which has been the guiding factor in Ottawa’s goaltending selections, but there was no development curve
2018 (1-5-2)
1-4 Brady Tkachuk (NCAA; NHL 359-125-150-275) – there were a few concerns at the time about his ability to produce in the NHL, but he’s blown those away
1-26 Jacob Bernard-Docker (AJHL; NHL 32-0-2-2; AHL 99-4-11-15) – you can read scouts badly whiffing on his offensive abilities, and my concerns were not elevated enough as in my opinion he’s not an NHL player (his AHL numbers are horrendous)–it’s not clear JBD knows what the puck is for
2-48 Jonny Tychonick (BCHL; AHL-contract) – while I was enthused for the team to take a chance on skill, it never quite translated in the NCAA; Toronto signed him to a two-year AHL-deal when he completed his college career
4-95 Johnny Gruden (USHL; NHL 3-0-0-0; AHL 161-32-40-72) – I thought it was a terrible pick at the time, as nothing about his game stood out; the Sens dumped him as part of the Matt Murray trade and he remains in Pittsburgh’s org
4-126 Angus Crookshank (BCHL; AHL 90-31-32-63) – loved the pick when it was made and while his career trajectory remains uncertain, he’s got NHL depth potential I like (which is to say, he can score and grind)
6-157 Kevin Mandolese (QMJHL; NHL 3GP .916; AHL 43GP .893) – see below, but another big ‘tender whose career has been very erratic
7-188 Jakov Novak (NAHL; AHL-contract) – a gamble on skill that did not pay off; the NCAA grad has signed a one-year AHL deal with Laval (Montreal)
7-194 Luke Loheit (USHS; unsigned) – a pick I hated at the time and he’s yet to land even an AHL-deal
2019 (1-1-4)
1-19 Lassi Thomson (WHL; NHL 18-0-5-5; AHL 135-18-54-72) – I liked the pick and I continue to like the player (he’s much more talented than JBD above), although his ceiling remains uncertain
2-32 Shane Pinto (USHL; NHL 99-21-22-43) – scouts were spot on and he’s been a fantastic pick thus far
2-37 Mads Sogaard (WHL; NHL 21GP .889; AHL 64GP .904) – have I mentioned big? Mads is huge. Like Mandolese above, he’s been very erratic in his career thus far, but that’s not unusual with goaltenders
4-94 Viktor Lodin (SHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 38-11-12-23) – I mistakenly thought he was a grinder when picked due to a lack of info, but he earned an ELC which was ruined by injury and it seems likely he’ll return to Sweden
5-125 Mark Kastelic (WHL; NHL 81-9-6-15; AHL 102-19-24-43) – has banged and crashed around as expected, but as a marginal player he could disappear very quickly (I wasn’t a fan of the pick and really, why keep him when you signed MacEwen?)
7-187 Maxence Guenette (QMJHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 120-11-48-59) – reminded me of Max Lajoie (who signed a two-way deal with Toronto for next season); I like the player, although it’s unlikely he’ll be a regular NHLer
2020 (2-1-7)
1-3 Tim Stuetzle (DEL; NHL 210-73-104-177) – no complaints here
1-5 Jake Sanderson (USHL; NHL 77-4-28-32) – I had some concerns offensively, but those were unfounded
1-28 Ridly Greig (WHL; NHL 20-2-7-9; AHL 46-16-16-32) – his style of play combined with his size cause concerns about durability; I’m not quite sure where is he is offensively (we don’t yet see the dominant AHL numbers of a Batherson)–top-nine?
2-33 Roby Jarventie (Mestis; AHL 114-29-37-66) – the Sens have had limited luck from Finland, but I liked the pick (skill) and his trajectory has been good thus far (his totals don’t look remarkable, but if you go year-by-year you see the jumps in performance (0.47->0.75) and keep in mind he’s been the youngest player for the BSens every season)
2-44 Tyler Kleven (USHL; NHL 8-0-2-2) – the collective komming in the fanbase over him is hilarious (Yorkie has to change his shorts just talking about him), but it’s not at all clear how he projects (can he distribute the puck, or is he a limited, physical 5-6 guy?)
2-61 Egor Sokolov (QMJHL; NHL 13-1-1-2; AHL 169-55-79-134) – everyone likes the good natured Russian, with concerns largely being about his skating (which has gone from glacial to slow) and how well his skills translate (none of that is resolved); the perfect scenario for him is as a top-nine player (his AHL numbers suggest he can’t be top-six), but it’s unclear if he can do that
3-71 Leevi Merilainen (Jr SM-Liiga; NHL 2GP .878; AHL 4GP .933) – short by Sens standards; he underwhelmed in the OHL, but returned to form in Finland and had an excellent start in Belleville (barring roster changes I expect him to backup Sogaard)
5-155 Eric Engstrand (SHL; unsigned) – the Sens have a hard-on for big, lumbering European players who don’t pan out (Filip Ahl/Markus Nurmi), an observation I made when he was picked
6-158 Philippe Daoust (QMJHL; AHL 24-2-10-12) – due to injury we still have no idea what the Sens have in him, but he was drafted for skill, so I approve
6-181 Cole Reinhardt (WHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 169-32-44-76) – I wasn’t sure what the org was aiming at with him and I’m still not sure, although we have at least seen improvement (0.36->0.43->0.51)
2021 (link above; 0-3-3)
1-10 Tyler Boucher (USHL; signed) – the train wreck that is this pick continues with most questioning it at the time; I fully expect him to be packaged in a trade (sooner or later)
2-39 Zack Ostapchuk (WHL; signed) – a big project player that I liked at the time because he had some skill; what he is and how that will translate is unclear (he was a good but not great WHL player), but top-nine is what it feels like if he pans out
2-49 Ben Roger (OHL) – big and very fit, which doesn’t mean anything and he’s a wasted 2nd-round pick
3-74 Oliver Johansson (Allsvenskan) – a excellent skater with some skill; the Sens have plenty of time to make up their minds about him
4-123 Carson Latimer (WHL) – great skater, but nothing else making it a wasted pick
7-202 Chandler Romeo (GOJHL) – have I mentioned big? He was big, but not much of a hockey player
2022 (cf) (0-0-9)
2-64 Filip Nordberg (Allsvenskan) – reminds me a lot of Andreas Englund, which is not a great template to follow
3-72 Oskar Pettersson (J20; signed) – showed improvement after he was drafted and there could be potential in him (SHL numbers don’t blow you away, but at his age he isn’t playing much)
3-87 Tomas Hamara (U20; signed) – scouts didn’t think he excelled in any particular area, but the Sens rushed to sign him for some reason; he had a disappointing OHL-season and I’m not sure what exactly he’s supposed to do for you as a pro (I’m guessing he’s loaned back to Europe for the upcoming season)
4-104 Stephen Halliday (USHL) – I liked this pick and he had a good year in the NCAA (skilled player)
5-136 Jorian Donovan (OHL; signed) – had an excellent post-draft season so signing him made a lot of sense
5-143 Cameron ONeill (NEPACK 18U) – no idea what the org was smoking with this pick (another crasher and banger, but no signs of puck skill and the Sens have an awful track record drafting from tier-2 junior leagues in the US)
5-151 Kevin Reidler (J20) – another big goaltender who had a solid season in Sweden
6-168 Theo Wallberg (J20) – like Hamara he bombed out after his draft (in the USHL), so is going to have to show a lot this upcoming season (feels like another Englund-clone)
7-206 Tyson Dyck (BCHL) – a gamble on offense, so I like it
2023 (0-0-5)
4-108 Hoyt Stanley (BCHL) – drafted as a skilled defenseman, so on principal I like it, although the Sens have not done well with players out of the BCHL
5-140 Matthew Andonovski (OHL) – looks like a train wreck (same MO as Roger above)–no idea what the org was thinking
7-204 Owen Beckner (BCHL) – another skilled player, so on principal I like it
7-207 Vladimir Nikitin (Kazakhstan) – big goalie picked off his performance in one tournament–dicey decision, but it is the seventh round so the opportunity cost is small
7-215 Nicholas VanTassell (USHL) – another big blueliner with unimpressive numbers–I wouldn’t expect much

So what does it all mean? In terms of preferred leagues (likely related to what and where they spend their scouting money): USHL 8, WHL 8, Sweden 7, Canadian tier-2 (BCHL etc) 7, QMJHL 5, OHL 4, American tier-2 (USHS etc) 3, Finland 3, NCAA 1, Germany 1, Kazakhstan 1. Overall these trends are similar to those under Bryan Murray (cf), except for a growing focus on the Western hockey leagues. Has this emphasis on the US system worked? No. As far back as as Dorion’s involvement (link above), the Sens have failed the most from that system, which is a sign that despite rotation in the scouting group nothing has been learned in the last 15-years. Most of the Mann-drafts above are recent enough that we can’t definitively assess the wins and losses, but we can make some judgements (6-9-27):
2017 – a good draft, despite a wasted first round pick
2018 – a poor draft saved by the first-round pick
2019 – will end as a good draft if one of Thomson or Sogaard achieve potential
2020 – a fantastic draft from the looks of it (the best since 2008)
2021 – a terrible draft (lining up to be like 2014)
2022 – far too soon to say, but seems to lack high end talent
2023 – almost certainly to be disastrous (ala 2014)
Let’s keep in mind it’s easier to seem smart with high draft picks (especially top-ten) and the latter is what makes 2020 such a win for the team. Since that draft, despite having another top-ten pick, things have taken a turn for the worse. 2021 was a awful and the Sens had high picks; 2022 is filled with concerns and its highly likely 2023 will be a complete miss. Mann has been going in the wrong direction and so however convenient it is for Dorion to remove him, the team needs a change in its drafting direction.

Kevin Mandolese, GL, 6’5, DOB 00, 6-157/18
2021-22 AHL 17GP .901/ECHL 6GP .916
2022-23 NHL 3GP .916/AHL 17GP .890/ECHL 7GP .927
As expected since he was qualified, the Sens re-signed RFA goaltender Kevin Mandolese (only two other qualified RFAs remain). He is the fifth ‘tender in the organization (behind the two one-way deals mentioned above along with Mads Sogaard and rookie Leevi Merilainen), which isn’t an inherent flaw, but it’s interesting that they decided to keep him after a very erratic three seasons with the team. There’s no question Mandolese has talent, but his problem has been consistency–this is truly a make or break year for him. The other thing his presence affords is the ability to trade a goalender. I think it’s quite likely the Sens would like to move Forsberg (given his regression to the mean last year as well as coming off two major injuries), although it’s difficult to imagine anyone taking him without something better thrown in.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 13, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens

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