I wrote about Binghamton’s season back in April and then graded the prospects a week ago, but I return to the topic because Manny has gifted us with analytics via Josh Weissbock for the AHL.  Weissbock’s methodology is not included in the blog (just a link to his Twitter), but by the power of Internet I went and found an article he wrote for nhlnumbers which gives us somewhere to start:

To create a proxy for possession in the AHL, I looked at all games that have been played so far this year, added up each teams Shots For and Shots Against and calculated their Shots For %. This means there are some obvious limitations. These numbers also include special teams (not just even strength) and don’t take account score effects. So this a very rough proxy for the possession numbers we usually use for the NHL.

There’s clearly more to it now, but it sheds some light on where Weissbock’s numbers come from (he did Tweet how he calculated TOI).  I’m not going to break down each player comparing my thoughts to Manny’s because the differences aren’t extreme enough for that.  Instead I’ll highlight differences and reinforcements that I consider significant.

Goaltenders

I thought Andrew Hammond was solid in net and the numbers agree, although Manny believes more is needed from him next season; conversely I thought Nathan Lawson was average that was far too kind to the UFA.

Blueliners

No surprises here at all; I didn’t think much of Mark Borowiecki‘s season, nor is it a surprise to know he faced the toughest opposition in the league–I still expected more from him.

Forwards

I didn’t think much of Darren Kramer, Wacey Hamilton, or Corey Cowick‘s seasons and their underlying numbers are awful.  The former two comes as no surprise to anyone, but I think the data here makes it clear that Cowick cannot effectively handle a checking role (he was also a drag for Derek Grant and David Dziurzynski).  Jean-Gabriel Pageau was a monster against the toughest opposition.  It’s worth listing Binghamton’s forwards by the level of competition they faced (the number in brackets is where they finished in points-per-game in scoring by forwards; I’ve bolded the top-scorers):
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4)
David Dziurzynski (11)
Derek Grant (9)
Jim O’Brien (8)
Corey Cowick (12)
Mark Stone (2)
Cole Schneider (5)
Matt Puempel (7)
Darren Kramer (14)
Wacey Hamilton (13)
Stephane Da Costa (3)
Buddy Robinson (10)
Mike Hoffman (1)
Shane Prince (6)
It would have been nice to see where Andre Petersson fit here before he left, but while excluded from Manny’s list his name appears amongst the bubbles of QoT/QoC and he slots ahead of Schneider above.  It’s worth pointing out that I gave Puempel and Prince equal grades and it’s clear the former had a better season given his QoT; Grant warranted a bit more generosity as well.

The last thing I want to address is the NHL Equivalency number included in the final chart.  These numbers are derived from a now gone-from-the-web Gabe Desjardins article, but Manny got his formula via Justin Azevedo:

I have no doubt Desjardins put a lot of work into this, but as a cautionary tale for taking this chart as gospel, it predicts that Brandon Bochenski (KHL) is a 72-point producer at the NHL level (hell, Nigel Dawes is a 61-point player); or, for an AHL-example, Martin St. Louis should have been a 42-point NHL player.  I don’t think there’s a useful way to take statistics from one league and apply them to another, although it’s still fun to try.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 18, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 9 Comments

The second installment of my look at the Sens prospects (you can find Part One here).  After covering prospects in junior, college, and the ECHL, I’m taking a look at AHLers.  I have left out players who I don’t believe will return (like Wacey Hamilton), while players who are through their ELC’s who have established what they are (like Mark Borowiecki) are treated a bit further below (as is Cody Ceci, who spent most of his season in the NHL).  As always, for players without significant time in the NHL it’s worthwhile viewing the scouting reports when drafted (many of which can be found via the link above).

Cole Schneider (FA NCAA 2012; 69-20-34-54; previous season 60-17-18-35; splits 10-4-1-5/10-2-6-8/10-6-8-14/10-3-3-6/10-1-4-5/10-3-5-8/9-1-5-6)
An excellent sophomore campaign with only a few periods of inconsistency; so far Schneider has been an excellent free agent signing and all that remains to be tested is his capabilities at the next level–he can clearly dominate in the AHL.  Does he need to be a top-six player to pan out at the next level?  I think that remains to be seen–if he’s a possession guy then the goals aren’t the only way for him to step up.

Chris Wideman (4-100/09; 73-9-42-51; previous season 60-2-16-18; splits 10-1-7-8/10-1-3-4/10-1-7-8/10-2-10-12/10-1-4-5/10-0-3-3/13-2-8-10)
A fantastic sophomore season, slowing a little in the second half (32 points in the first 40, 19 in the next 33); undersized NCAA grad will always have to do more to get his shot, but another dominant AHL-season is going to force Ottawa’s hand.  It’s very rare for a small blueliner to play a depth role, so he has to push for at least a 4-5, second unit powerplay spot to have a realistic shot.

Matt Puempel (1-24/11; 74-30-18-48; splits 10-3-2-5/10-3-2-5/10-3-1-4/10-5-2-7/10-5-2-7/10-5-3-8/14-6-5-11)
First-rounder’s rookie season improved over the course of the season (went from 0.46 points-per-game in the first 30 to 0.77 the rest of the way); sniper projects as a top-six player who can eat up powerplay minutes, but whether he’ll achieve that potential is still up in the air (his ability at the AHL-level is not in question).

Shane Prince (2-61/11; 69-21-27-48; previous season 65-18-17-35; splits 10-2-2-4/10-3-5-8/10-2-5-7/10-6-4-10/10-3-2-5/10-3-3-6/9-2-5-7)
Improved over last season; his primary issue is inconsistency, but his tracking the right direction; I don’t know if Prince has the chops for the next level, but that possibility remains (perhaps as a pesky top-nine player).

Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4-96/11; 46-20-24-44; NHL 28-2-0-2; previous season 69-7-22-29; splits 10-5-9-14/10-2-4-6/10-2-8-10/16-11-3-14)
While his time in the NHL was a disappointment, he dominated in the AHL and his future remains bright; he’s not a lock for the NHL roster next season, but that league is in his future (even if he never produces enough to escape a bottom six role).

Mark Stone (6-178/10, 37-15-26-41; NHL 19-4-4-8; previous season 54-15-23-38; splits 10-4-4-8/10-6-6-12/10-3-9-12/7-2-7-9)
Injury-prone, but there’s no questioning Stone‘s hands or instincts; it remains to be seen if his feet are fast enough to be an NHL-regular, but he’ll get an opportunity to show that sooner than later.

Buddy Robinson (FA NCAA 2013, 69-15-16-31; splits 10-2-1-3/10-4-3-7/10-1-1-2/10-1-2-3/10-2-3-5/10-1-3-4/9-4-2-6)
The big winger gradually became more consistent over the course of his rookie season, which echoed Cole Schneider‘s last year; NHL-potential hasn’t been tested yet, but at the least he’s going to be a good AHLer.

Fredrik Claesson (5-126/11, 75-3-26-29; previous season 70-3-8-11; splits 10-0-0-0/10-0-5-5/10-1-6-7/10-1-8-9/10-0-1-1/10-1-1-2/15-0-5-5)
Steady Freddy enjoyed a fantastic sophomore season; defensively dependable, there’s no question he could at least fill-in at the NHL-level, so the question now is whether he can be a regular or not.

Corey Cowick (6-160/09, 72-12-13-25; previous season 72-16-19-35; splits 10-1-1-2/10-3-1-4/10-0-2-2/10-4-4-8/10-2-1-3/10-1-1-2/12-0-3-3)
After a successful season riding shotgun with Jean-Gabriel Pageau, everything came crashing to earth for Cowick who, other than a short stretch in December, put up awful numbers (even for a checker).  He’s clearly someone who needs to be insulated to perform at his best and that doesn’t bode well for an NHL future, even if he’s now fully established as an AHLer.

Derek Grant (4-119/08, 46-12-10-22; NHL 20-0-2-2; previous season 63-19-9-28; splits 10-3-3-6/10-3-1-4/10-0-2-2/16-6-4-10)
His numbers marginally improved over last season and he spent a good chunk of the early season in the NHL; projects as a PK forward and the upcoming season is going to be make-or-break for him (I don’t think he’ll be on the Sens roster, but he should dominate in the AHL no matter where he’s played).

Michael Sdao (7-191/09, 61-5-6-11; splits: 10-1-0-1/10-1-2-3/10-0-2-2/10-2-1-3/10-1-0-1/11-1-0-1)
Drafted as the best fighter of the 2009 class, his rookie season saw him eventually push Ben Blood out of the lineup, but not do enough to dress in the playoffs; he projects as a 5-6 guy.  His numbers are actually quite decent and he can do more with the puck than someone who is just a goon–the question remains if he can translate that to the next level and at this point it’s too early to tell.

Darren Kramer (6-156/11, 45-2-2-4; previous season AHL 21-1-0-1/ECHL 19-3-7-10; splits 10-1-1-2/10-1-0-1/10-0-1-1/15-0-0-0)
The best fighter in his draft class, he was a full-time roster player in his sophomore season, but dressed for only just over half the games–despite appearing in the playoffs, it’s clear his skill level isn’t high enough for him to fill anything other than the role of a fighter, something I don’t see him translating to the NHL.

Older/NHL Players

Cody Ceci (1-15/12; NHL 49-3-6-9; AHL 27-2-17-19)
First-rounder was locked into Ottawa’s lineup for the same kind of WTF reasoning that keeps Chris Phillips in the lineup; like most young defenseman there’s a lot growth yet to come and a full season in the AHL would likely help; an offense-first blueliner, the future should be bright for Ceci–the only question is when he’ll be ready for full-time NHL duty.

Mike Hoffman (5-130/09; AHL 51-30-37-67; NHL 25-3-3-6; previous season AHL 41-13-15-28)
He has nothing left to prove at the AHL level, so the question remains whether or not he can be a regular NHL player; I think he can–he has the speed and hands to be useful even if he can’t translate his scoring–the only question is whether he does this in Ottawa or not, and whether he’s someone who plays for parts of a few seasons and then disappears.

Stephane Da Costa (FA NCAA 2011; AHL 56-18-40-48; NHL 12-3-1-4; previous season AHL 57-13-25-38)
This was the first season where Da Costa looked like a (potentially) useful NHL player; I’m still not sure how well his skills translate, since I don’t think he’s particularly useful in a depth role and his production might not warrant anything else, but given that after last year I thought his peak was the AHL, he’s become a more interesting asset.

Mark Borowiecki (5-139/08; AHL 50-2-6-8; NHL 13-1-0-1; previous season 53-4-10-14)
Heart and soul player had a poor season–too many penalties, too many fights, sub par production, etc.  There’s no questioning his worth ethic, but the more I see of Borowiecki the more I’m convinced his peak is a 6-7 blueliner who is as good as he’s going to get right now.

David Dziurzynski (FA BCHL 2010; AHL 68-13-12-25; previous season AHL 54-4-16-20; NHL 12-2-0-2)
There’s nothing left for Dizzy to prove in the AHL–he’s a well-established checking forward whose numbers have been almost ruthlessly consistent (points-per-game per season: 0.26, 0.38, 0.37, and 0.36); is he good enough to perform the same role in the NHL?  I thought he looked out of place with Ottawa two season’s ago, but that’s not to say he couldn’t fit on a line in the right situation–although I’m dubious he’ll get that chance with the Sens.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 12, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The signing of prospect Mikael Wikstrand on Thursday got me thinking about what we can expect from Ottawa’s many prospects.  Given the great multitude this will be done in two parts.  I’m leaving out players like RFA Ben Blood (he won’t be retained), Francois Brassard (the organisation has made it known they have no intention of signing him), or the injured Jarrod Maidens.  Acronym of note for players in pro: ppg = points-per-game.  Players who will be playing pro next season have been coloured green.

CHL Prospects

It’s worth noting here that production (unless it’s bad) doesn’t mean much at this level; Tyler Donati was an OHL star and couldn’t manage to become an AHL-regular, so keep that in mind.  Scouting reports are much better guides to these players and you can find most of them by draft year: 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

Curtis Lazar (1-17/13; WHL 58-41-35-76; previous season 72-38-23-61)
The scouting consensus was that the first-rounder was a solid, well-rounded second-line player and nothing from this season would suggest otherwise.  His numbers were up from his draft year and he performed very well at the WJC.  The organisation has talked about him making the jump to the NHL next season, but there’s no reason (beyond budget) to rush him into the lineup.

Vincent Dunn (5-138/13; QMJHL 50-31-20-51; AHL 1-0-0-0; previous season 53-25-27-52)
Super pest dropped a long way in the draft; his numbers were essentially unchanged from the previous season and all the scouting reports project him as a pesky bottom six forward–nothing from this year has changed that estimation.

Ben Harpur (4-108/13; OHL 67-3-13-16; previous season 67-3-12-15)
Drafted primarily because he was big; a stay-at-home blueliner,  his limitations with the puck are going to make the transition to pro very difficult (his numbers did not improve over his draft year); I don’t believe the organisation will sign him when they have to make that choice next year.

Chris Driedger (3-76/12; WHL 28-14-7 2.64 .918; ECHL 1-2 3.92 .893; AHL no result; previous season 36-14-4, 2.51 .915)
Won the goaltending sweepstakes within the organisation by beating out sixth-rounder Brassard; scouting reports are all over the place and contradictory, largely because Driedger was not the full-time ‘tender in his draft year; his numbers have improved in each of the two season since he was drafted and he’s slotted in to play backup in the AHL (a backup at the NHL-level is where he projects out).

NCAA/USPHL

College scoring is more predictive at the minor pro level than that of the CHL, but it’s still not the best guide.  The various US junior systems are as potentially misleading as those in CHL.

Tim Boyle (4-106/12; USPHL 37-5-16-21; previous season NCAA 15-0-2-2)
The Sens surprise pick of the 2012 draft, Boyle left the NCAA after a year at Union College to go back into the US junior system; his numbers were good, but not dominant (ala former Sens prospect Bryce Aneloski who did the same thing); there’s a lot of time left for him to develop so it’s too early to judge him, but there’s a lot for him to prove.

Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11; NCAA 37-22-24-46; AHL 9-2-5-7; previous season 40-16-22-38)
Left college early (after three seasons) to turn pro; another skilled player who fell in the draft (his second) because of his size and lack of physicality; after dominating at Ohio State he did not look out of place in his short debut with Binghamton; is he another Ryan Shannon, or is he something more than that?  It’s difficult to judge at this point.  The challenge for all top scorers when they turn pro is can they do anything else if their scoring doesn’t translate.

Max McCormick (6-171/11; NCAA 37-11-24-35; previous season 40-15-16-31)
Teammate of Dzingel and drafted in the same year; he has been very good at Ohio, albeit not quite as electric as the above; he”ll finish up his college career before turning pro; he’s a hard-working player who projects as a depth, energy player.

Garrett Thompson (FA 2013; NCAA 43-16-16-32; AHL 7-1-2-3; previous season NCAA 37-11-15-26)
Free agent signee from Ferris State I don’t know enough about to project–he was not on the radar when he was draft eligible and has been described as a meat and potatoes type of player, so projects as a depth forward.

Robert Baillargeon (5-136/12; NCAA 35-10-17-27; previous season USHL 55-18-23-41)
Lead Boston U in scoring in his rookie season, benefitting from a more settled season than his last in the USHL; his stock fell at the draft due to a lack of “toughness”, but all the things that actually matter (speed, skill with the puck) are present and were demonstrated this season.  I think to his the highest level he’ll have to become an Erik Condra; a depth player with good possession numbers.

Quentin Shore (6-168/13; NCAA 33-7-18-25; previous season 39-10-9-19)
A solid season at U Denver; drafted as a two-way player and something of a gamble, we’re still a few years away from judging him.

Chris Leblanc (6-161/13; NCAA 23-6-6-12; previous season EJHL 44-13-20-33)
A surprise draft pick enjoyed a solid rookie season with Merrimack; there were no scouting reports on him beyond the organisation describing him as a “big two-way player”; he’s a long way away, but projects as a depth player.

Europe

Much like the CHL above, production does not mean much except in absence here.

Mikael Wikstrand (7-196/12; SHL 19-4-7-11; Alls 27-4-16-20; previous season Alls 45-11-14-25)
Benefitted the previous season from playing with lockout players like Anze Kopitar, but this year he not only maintained but improved his production in the absence of NHL superstars.  Scouting reports when drafted all indicated he was a good, two-way player (his 3 points in his draft year seem the primary reason he nearly fell out of the draft), but his performance as a powerplay quarterback eluded everyone (including the Sens organisation).  He should do well in Binghamton this upcoming season, although the usual switch to smaller ice might lead to a slow start.  He was projected as a bottom-pairing NHL player, but if his offense translates he might also be a second unit PP guy.  Time will tell.

Tobias Lindberg (4-102/13; SuperElit 38-7-15-22; Alls 3-0-0-0; previous season SuperElit 43-9-13-22)
An off-the-wall pick last year, Lindberg‘s numbers improved only slightly from his draft year (ppg went from 0.51 to 0.57) and I think his future is heavily tied into how he does next season.  I have a suspicion he’ll wind up being Marcus Sorensen (4-106/10)–an energy player whose skills don’t quite translate outside of Europe.

Marcus Hogberg (3-78/13; Alls 5-8-0 2.93 .892; SHL 4-0-0 1.08 .960; previous season SuperElit 2.77 .906)
Scouts struggle to figure goaltenders out (have some fun and scan goaltending picks from any draft), so what little was said about Hogberg at the draft was all over the place; his numbers weren’t great this season for Mora in the Allsvenskan, but he was fantastic in the SHL and one wonders how much of his stats are dependent on the defense in front of him.  He’ll spend another year in Sweden, but I’d expect him to come to Binghamton in 15-16.

ECHL Prospects

Elmira just finished a disastrous season (24-40-8, third worst in the league), which is their last season in affiliation with Ottawa (no official replacement has been named for the Sens).  The Jackals produced the second fewest goals in the league and allowed the second most–it was an unmitigated disaster and that’s worth keeping in mind for the players below.

Troy Rutkowski (FA WHL 2013, ECHL 41-0-9-9 PPG 0.21; AHL 12-1-0-1; ECHL splits 10-0-3-3/10-0-2-2/10-0-1-1/11-0-3-3)
The disaster that is Troy Rutkowski makes it clear why Colorado walked away from him (5-137/10) last year.  Now, it’s possible that he could turn into a decent AHL player (and certainly he might have a future bouncing around Europe), but NHL-calibre players don’t struggle in the ECHL.  With plenty of opportunity in Elmira, the offense-minded blueliner was unable to translate his CHL success.  Yes, the Jackals had a terrible season and a bad team, but that didn’t prevent other prospects from performing adequately.  There was no sign of evolution of his play over the season (his production did not increase).  Ottawa is stuck with Rutkowski‘s contract for two more seasons and given the thinness of their blueline in Binghamton he’ll probably get one more try before they attempt to move him.

Jakub Culek (3-76/10; ECHL 49-8-22-30 PPG 0.61; AHL 7-0-0-0; ECHL splits 10-3-6-9/10-1-5-6/10-4-5-9/10-0-4-4/9-0-2-2)
Enjoyed a moderately successful rookie season in Elmira, although he faded badly down the stretch (18-0-4-4).  I don’t think there’s any NHL potential in him (when drafted he projected as a depth, checking forward), but he could become a solid bottom-six forward in the AHL.

Ludwig Karlsson (FA NCAA 2013; ECHL 39-11-13-24 PPG 0.61; AHL 8-0-0-0; ECHL splits 10-2-2-4/10-2-5-7/10-2-4-6/9-5-2-7)
Did not perform as expected (you don’t sign a college free agent to play in the ECHL), but at least in Elmira he was decent (other than the games immediately after his injury).  His season was derailed early and he got stuck behind a huge logjam at forward–next season will be make-or-break for the Swede.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 10, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Just like last year, the B-Sens playoffs ended with a whimper against the Penguins (losing the series 3-1, as the AHL has five-game series to open the playoffs for whatever reason).    Three of the games were one-goal decisions and there are a few things that stand out to me about the series (Jeff Ulmer has offered his thoughts as well).

1. Four of the five Penguins who dominated in the series were older players (30s), most with a ton of NHL experience: Tom Kostopoulos (630), Chuck Kobasew (601), and former B-Sen Andrew Ebbett (200); goaltender Peter Mannino is a six-year AHL vet.

2. Lack of secondary scoring: once Wilkes-Barre shut down Mark Stone and Stephane Da Costa, Binghamton was not able to generate enough offence.  With Mike Hoffman and Matt Puempel unable to participate, secondary scoring dried up from Cole Scheider, Shane Prince, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau (one wonders if the team might have benefitted from keeping Andre Petersson in that respect).

3. Defensive struggles: new additions Alex Grant and Patrick Mullen did not make the difference needed (the former in particular); I believe Chris Wideman played with an injury so his struggles didn’t bother me as much; Cody Ceci, just like in the NHL, needs to put more work in.

4. Penalties: while officiating is extremely erratic, the B-Sens followed their parent club in taking a ridiculous number of penalties–wearing down their PK players and their goaltender.  I believe the organisation does not do enough to punish players who continual take stupid penalties (case in point: Chris Neil).

5. Goaltending: Andrew Hammond could not win a game for his team this series, which was something they clearly needed.

In the end there was no single fatal flaw–a lot went wrong for Binghamton.  The result does not take away from what was a very successful season.  Ottawa has always treated its AHL-affiliates as a development project where winning is nice, but not something to do at all costs.  The older Wilkes-Barre lineup was much more suited to winning in the playoffs, as team’s that win championships in the AHL always have an abundance of older players leading the way.  Whether or not the experience of losing aids anyone’s development is unknown (I’ve never seen a study on it, so anything anyone says about it is purely speculative).  The same, oddly, goes for winning.  Players with Calder Cup rings do not receive any sort of definitive development boost either.

The team has lot’s of rosters decisions to make for next year, but will at least begin jettisoning some dead weight (Tyler Eckford, Ben Blood, Wacey Hamiltion, and Jim O’Brien at least).  There’s still a lack of depth on the blueline, although if they can bring Mikael Wikstrand over (which seems unlikely given his contract with Frolunda) that would help exponentially.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 4, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Binghamton’s regular season has wrapped up and it’s time to take a quick look at the East Division champs and how the players on the roster performed.  The team finished 44-24-8 (virtually their exact record from last season), setting up a re-match with the Wilkes-Barre Penguins who upset them last year.  The B-Sens were the highest scoring team in the AHL, their 276 goals (+49 from last season) far above most team’s in the league and 18 more than their closest competitor (St. John’s); on the flip side they allowed the most goals in the Eastern Conference (232; up 44 from last season).  Below I’ve graded each player specifically for their play in the AHL (for last year’s examination go here); acronyms ppp=powerplay points, ppg=points-per-game; I put RFA’s in green and UFA’s in red.  Grade rationale is simple: A – above expectations, B – met expectations, C – didn’t grow, but didn’t decline, D – below expectations, F – awful.

Mike Hoffman RFA (5-130/09) 51-30-37-67 ppp 35 ppg 1.31 [NHL 25-3-3-6] Grade: A
Finally experienced the explosion in production that I expected last year and made a legitimate push to be considered an NHL player; he lead the team in points, goals, and powerplay points; he has pro speed and good hands, but the question remains is he Ryan Shannon or something more?
Stephane Da Costa RFA (NCAA FA/11) 56-18-40-58 ppp 27 ppg 1.04 [NHL 12-3-1-4] Grade: A
Also produced as I’d expected in the previous season and showed firmer glimmers of NHL potential (with solid underlying numbers–ala Hoffman, although Travis Yost seems to have backed off in relation to Da Costa in his year-end grades); doesn’t have the blazing speed of Hoffman, but good hands and offensive instincts–fitness has been a problem and the question remains how well his skills translate
Cole Schneider RFA (NCAA FA/12) 69-20-34-54 ppp 15 ppg 0.78 Grade A
The organisation doesn’t always hit homeruns with their FA college signings and while Cole’s translation at the next level remains unknown, he’s improved leaps and bounds over his rookie season; his hands stand out most (both shooting and passing)
Chris Wideman RFA (4-100/09) 73-9-42-51 ppp 30 ppg 0.70 Grade A
A fantastic sophomore season by the blueliner (leading the team in assists) whose size might be his chief impediment to getting a taste at the next level–smaller defenseman have to be quick and proactive
Matt Puempel (1-24/11) 74-30-18-48 ppp 18 ppg 0.65 Grade B
An excellent rookie season for the first-rounder, who on a team with less depth likely would have posted even better numbers; good speed and great hands
Shane Prince (2-61/11) 69-21-27-48 ppp 10 ppg 0.70 Grade B
A modest improvement over last year including struggles to start the season, but he did lead the team in even strength scoring despite rumours he demanded a trade; a smaller player he has more to prove, particularly given how many undersized forwards compete with him in the organisation
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4-96/11) 46-20-24-44 ppp 12 ppg 0.96 [NHL 28-2-0-2] Grade A
Many expected him to spend the entire season in Ottawa (I was not among them) and while he wasn’t particularly good in the NHL he was excellent in Bingo; excellent speed and defensively responsible
Mark Stone (6-178/10) 37-15-26-41 ppp 18 ppg 1.11 [NHL 19-4-4-8] Grade A
Last season’s leading scoring, the injury-prone Stone put up good numbers again (with the same underlying NHL numbers of Hoffman and Da Costa above); he’s second on the roster in points-per-game; doesn’t have great footspeed, but a heady player with great hands
Alex Grant UFA (4-118/07 Pit) 71-9-28-37 ppg 0.52 Grade B
Acquired in a trade from Norfolk to solidify the blueline and he has proven a solid addition; savvy veteran has posted consistent numbers
Patrick Mullen UFA (NCAA FA/09 LA) 66-8-24-32 ppg 0.48 Grade C
Another deadline acquisition for defensive depth, this time from Utica; a decent all-around player
Buddy Robinson (NCAA FA/13) 69-15-16-31 ppp 0 ppg 0.45 Grade B
Like Schneider he’s another early NCAA departure with a lot of raw tools; an up and down rookie season, but solid overall as he trends upward; good speed for a big man along with soft hands
Jim O’Brien UFA (1-29/07) 51-11-18-29 ppp 4 ppg 0.57 Grade F
Pissed off the organisation enough to bury him in Bingo with a one-way contract; middling numbers given his past performance (I’d been told he’d been sent home, but now hear he’s practicing with the team and could play)
Fredrik Claesson (5-126/11) 75-3-26-29 ppp 0 ppg 0.39 Grade A
Excellent sophomore campaign from the defensive defenseman; continues to grow in leaps and bounds, keeping his game simple
David Dziurzynski RFA (BCHL FA/10) 68-13-12-25 ppp 0 ppg 0.37 Grade C
Seems to have plateaued and his future as a depth player in the NHL is very much in doubt
Corey Cowick RFA (6-160/09) 72-12-13-25 ppp 0 ppg 0.35 Grade C
Without riding shotgun with JJP his numbers plummeted and whatever hints of NHL-potential fell with them; seems to be missing some of the elements needed to become a depth NHL-forward
Derek Grant RFA (4-119/08) 46-12-10-22 ppp 3 ppg 0.48 [NHL 20-0-2-2] Grade C
His unexpected NHL call-up did not yield better AHL-returns; his numbers are only slightly better than last year; he apparently developed an attitude after his time in Ottawa; projects as a depth penalty killer and there’s still time for that to happen
Wacey Hamilton RFA (WHL FA/11) 63-4-16-20 ppp 0 ppg 0.32 Grade C
The org has missed badly in their free agent CHL-signings and I’m still scratching my head over what they thought they were getting in Hamilton
Cody Ceci (1-15/12) 27-2-17-19 ppp 6 ppg 0.70 [NHL 49-3-6-9] Grade B
A good albeit short rookie season for the first-rounder, whose time in the NHL was rocky; has all the offensive tools, but defensive play still needs work
Daniel New (NCAA FA/12 AHL) 31-1-12-13 ppp 4 ppg 0.42 [ECHL 22-2-9-11] Grade C
Any time an ECHL defenseman plays over 30 games and gets powerplay time you know you have a weak blueline
Michael Sdao RFA (7-191/09) 61-6-5-11 ppp 1 ppg 0.18 Grade C+
The best fighter in the 2009 draft, Sdao will look to continue to grow into a depth defenseman (unlike Blood below)
Mark Borowiecki (5-139/08) 50-2-6-8 ppp 0 ppg 0.16 [NHL 13-1-0-1] Grade C
A season marred by injury, poor production, and taking too many penalties; gritty blueliner is at his best a #6 in the NHL
Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11) 9-2-5-7 ppp 1 ppg 0.78 Grade incomplete
Did not look out of place as he left the NCAA; has great hands and head for the game
Darren Kramer (6-156/11) 45-2-2-4 ppp 0 ppg 0.09 Grade D
The toughest fighter in the 2011 draft, it looks doubtful he can do much more than that at the AHL-level
Tyler Eckford UFA (7-217/04 NJ) 32-0-4-4 ppp 0 ppg 0.12 Grade F
Awful last year, he was somehow even worse this season–a terrible signing (like O’Brien he’s apparently been sent home)
Garrett Thompson (NCAA FA/14) 7-1-2-3 ppp 0 ppg 0.43 Grade incomplete
NCAA free agent was solid in his brief debut
Danny Hobbs (NCAA FA/12 AHL) 13-1-2-3 ppp 0 ppg 0.23 [ECHL 52-17-18-35] Grade incomplete
ECHL call-up had 2 points in his first game and 1 in his next 12–enough said
Ben Blood RFA (4-120/07) 54-0-3-3 ppp 0 ppg 0.06 Grade F
I’m amazed he dressed for more than half the season; no offensive tools and despite his size isn’t particularly aggressive
Troy Rutkowski (WHL FA/13) 12-1-0-1 ppp 1 ppg 0.08 [ECHL 41-0-9-9] Grade F
Was awful in the ECHL as well and could well join the long line of bad CHL free agent signings for the organisation; a puck-mover at the junior level he was unable to bring that into the pro game
Vincent Dunn (5-138/13) 1-0-0-0 Grade incomplete
One game is just not a big enough sample size
Jakub Culek (3-76/10) 7-0-0-0 [ECHL 49-8-22-30] Grade F
Was solid in the ECHL, but I’m not sure there’s more to him
Ludwig Karlsson (NCAA FA/13) 8-0-0-0 [ECHL 39-11-13-24] Grade F
A lot more has to be expected from an NCAA free agent–he needs to be better

Andrew Hammond (NCAA FA/13) 25-19-3 2.81 .910 [NHL 1 game, no result] Grade B
A solid year for the rookie, who sported better numbers than Lawson; proved he has AHL-chops, but whether he can be more is an open question
Nathan Lawson UFA (NCAA FA/07 ECHL) 15-8-1 3.05 .908 [NHL 1 game no result] Grade C
Mr. Glass was often on the shelf, but solid when he appeared (he’s finished for the season due to injury)
Scott Greenham (NCAA FA/11 AHL) 4-0-1 2.57 .912 [ECHL 8-15-3 3.21 .904] Grade B
ECHL ‘tender looked good in limited duty–better than he did on an awful Elmira team
Chris Driedger (3-76/12) 4.58 .909 [ECHL 1-2-0 3.92 .893] Grade incomplete
You can’t judge from him playing part of one game

It was another successful season in the AHL as Binghamton has a good chance to go deep in the playoffs.  There are no future NHL stars playing here, but there are a number of NHL-caliber players and worthwhile call-ups which is a compliment to the now-departed Tim Murray, Luke Richardson, and the scouting staff.  The main issue for the organisation is their hit-and-miss veteran signings and their swings for the fences with CHL free agents.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 23, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 11 Comments

Both Ottawa and the Leafs were officially eliminated last night, a fact Sens fans have accepted for a while, but Leafs fans are having difficult times coming to terms with.  It’s difficult to encapsulate how badly Ottawa’s management misjudged their roster this year and I’m sure even in a bad draft Bryan Murray wishes he had his pick back.  This doesn’t mean the Sens will be as bad next year, but it should temper expectations.

Manny looks at the reasons why the Sens failed to make the playoffs this year and points to the following: goaltending, possession, penalties, and player usage.  Three of those four are heavily influenced by coaching (Travis Yost also looks at shot blocking, which also falls under this umbrella), so Paul MacLean should be under the microscope.  Will he be fired?  Some are making the financial argument that they won’t want to pay MacLean not to coach (of course, if he’s hired elsewhere that obligation disappears), but a successful team is far more valuable to ownership and if they believe that can happen with another coach, a change will be made.

Elliotte Friedman explores the futures of Jason Spezza and Bobby Ryan with the Sens and Nichols (via the link) would rather both be moved than simply maintain the status quo.  Given the organisations odd obsession with veterans (Neil and Phillips), perhaps the status quo is exactly what we’ll get.  I really don’t know what to want from the situation, althoughSpezza is disposable given his chronic back problems.

The Sens are trying to trade the rights of Francois Brassard (6-166/12), although it’s hard to imagine what they would get back if they can find a dance partner (not much presumably).  Brassard is a victim of numbers, behind the just-signed Chris Driedger and 2013 draft pick Marcus Hogberg.

Peter Morrow looks at the Sens Swedish and NCAA prospects where he includes a little scouting information, but not where he got it from (it isn’t noted, so I’d take it with a grain of salt).

Speaking of prospects, here’s an update (signed players are in italics):

SHL
Mikael Wikstrand (Frolunda, D) 20-4-7-11

NCAA
Ryan Dzingel (Ohio, C) 37-22-24-46
Max McCormick (Ohio, LW) 37-11-24-35
Robert Baillargeon (BU, C) 35-10-17-27
Quentin Shore (Denver, C) 33-7-18-25
Chris Leblanc (Merrimack, RW) 23-6-6-12

CHL
Curtis Lazar (Edmonton, C) 58-41-35-76
Vincent Dunn (Gatineau, LW) 50-31-20-51
Ben Harpur (Guelph, D) 67-3-13-16
Jarrod Maidens (injured)
Chris Driedger (Calgary, G) 28-14-7 2.64 .918
Francois Brassard (Quebec, G) 28-12-9 2.95 .909

Allsvenskan
Marcus Hogberg (Mora, G) 5-8-0 2.93 .892

SuperElit
Tobias Lindberg (Djurgardens, RW) 21-6-5-11

USPHL
Tim Boyle (South Shore Kings, D) 35-4-15-19

I’ve never understood all the hate that Alexander Ovechkin gets from traditional media, so I was quite happy when he hit the 50-goal plateau last night (well ahead of Corey Perry which makes him a lock to receive the Rocket Richard trophy). Speaking of production, the NHL’s limp attempts to increase scoring continue to fail as only Sidney Crosby will finish the season with over 100-points.  Fans like points–if defensive hockey sold then the dead puck era would have resulted in remarkable growth.  I don’t expect this to change, but it’s worth noting.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 9, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

As the Sens season winds down to its disappointing conclusion the organisation has signed a few players to ELC–one expected, one hoped for, and 0ne off the radar:

Goaltender Chris Driedger (3-76/12) has wrapped up his CHL career in Calgary and has signed an ATO to play for Elmira in the ECHL.  Driedger established a career high in save percentage (.918, slightly above the .915 from last year) and has a good chance to back up Andrew Hammond in Binghamton next season if (as I suspect) the oft-injured Nathan Lawson goes elsewhere.  For an extensive scouting report on the goaltender go here.

The hoped-for signee is Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11); the seventh round pick had another year of NCAA eligibility, but choose to turn pro with an ATO with Binghamton where he’s expected to play.  There was nothing left for Dzingel to prove at Ohio State as his numbers have improved in every respect each year (37-22-24-46 this year, leading his team in scoring).  Here‘s a scouting report on him.

The surprising player is collegiate free agent Garrett Thompson; the 24-year old Ferris State grad finished his senior year tied for the lead in scoring (43-16-16-32) and has signed an ATO in Binghamton and is expected to play.  Thompson was not ranked when he was draft eligible nor was he heavily recruited.  Described as a hard-working, meat and potatoes player he doesn’t look like an NHL-caliber player on the surface, but the team wouldn’t sign him to an ELC if they didn’t believe he had that potential, so we’ll have to see what happens.

The addition of two more forwards adds to the glut in Binghamton and we have to assume more roster moves are planned (beyond trading away Andre Petersson and the rights to Jeff Costello), even if purely through attrition (ie, letting contracts expire at season’s end).  The Sens also need to make decisions on Francois Brassard and Jarrod Maidens or lose their rights to them (both were 2012 draft picks)–I suspect neither will be signed (I consider signing Mikael Wikstrand a foregone conclusion).

As for the NHL team itself, rumours have surfaced that Paul MacLean’s head might be on the block.  MacLean’s player usage, assuming it’s completely his decision, is so perplexing even Travis Yost has no idea what he’s doing:

Chris Phillips, Chris Neil, Zack Smith — are regularly being sent over the boards, rewarded with ice-time when things maybe aren’t going in the team’s favor. Why? I have no discernible idea. I hear often how these guys give an “honest shift”, playing hard through and after the whistles. That’s fantastic. They’re killed in the areas where hockey matters, energy or not, and they’ve certainly contributed adversely to this team’s position in the standings more than a lot of the other guys. I have no idea why so much time this season has been spent sending messages and banishing productive players and rewarding guys who just get obliterated against the competition, but that’s more or less what’s occurred here.

He’s not the only one confused.  If MacLean stays presumably this puzzling player usage will continue, but if Bryan Murray shares his coaches philosophy I’m not sure a new voice will be any different.  Time will tell.

A little more Binghamton news: the always disappointing Ben Blood has been sent down to Elmira.  There’s no reason to expect Ottawa to retain his rights once the season (and his ELC) is over.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 4, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

St. Patrick’s Day seems like an opportune time to add some thoughts as the Sens season goes into the drink (Varada see’s no reason for hysteria, as the Sens are exactly the bubble team he predicted–I wince a bit when he says “most” people felt that way–Rob Vollman and others were very high on the team).  The off-season is less than a month away (April 14th kids, mark your calendars), and I think obituaries should be held until then.  Regardless, since I last chimed in on the season the Sens have gone 1-3-2 and seen their tiny playoff odds slip to almost non-existent.  It turns out those November musings that the season was over (referenced here) were spot on.  As Nichols points out (props on being paid for your opinion amigo–it’s well deserved), the Sens aren’t that different a team from this year to last, but they aren’t receiving the miracle goaltending of the lockout shortened campaign.  However, I’m not a fan of this thought:

if Bryan Murray can add better two-way forwards

I think Sens have an over abundance of forwards to whom that appellation is given (albeit not by Nichols), eg the lamentable Greening-Smith-Neil (Manny does his best to understand Paul MacLean’s obsession with the trio, concluding its their zone entries that he loves so much).  I actually like the Sens defence, minus the re-signed Chris Phillips (if he’s good in the room, leave him in the room) and Jared Cowen–at least the latter has hope to improve (Manny does a good job describing Eric Gryba, “he’s a serviceable bottom-pairing defenseman”).

-Any move that Don Brennan doesn’t like is going to be a good one, but no one needs his idiotic opinion to realise the acquisition of Ales Hemsky at the deadline was a good move and I hope he isn’t just a rental.   I wasn’t a fan of trading Andre Petersson, but this is the final year of his ELC and clearly the organisation thinks it has more than enough forward prospects to let him go (the much less interesting NCAA prospect Jeff Costello was also jettisoned).  Speaking of undersized forwards, Corey Conacher was gifted to Bryan’s nephew Tim via the waiver wire–while he didn’t score much in Ottawa, his underlying metrics were very good and it wouldn’t surprise me if he blossomed as a Sabre.  Dumping Joe Corvo into the AHL made sense–his addition over the summer seemed pointless to me at the time and it was a mercy for him and the team to move on.

–Manny gives us some analytics on scoring chances and after a lengthy exploration concludes:

Possession is the component that drives even-strength scoring. The results herein further enforce the notion that goal-based statistics do not provide adequate assessments of players’ overall performances, but rather the summation of innumerable factors in constant flux. Though possession drives scoring opportunities and in turn, those opportunities goals, too much becomes lost in translation at the individual level. Given what we know, it’s best to rely on bulk shot-based metrics to provide statistical insight into how a player contributes towards out-scoring opponents.

I recommend reading the entire article.

–Amelia L does a great job looking at the disappointing effort Sportsnet is putting into its planned national broadcast coverage of the NHL (Fox News style–aim for old white men as your audience).  My favourite bit:

Analysts like Friedman have tried to drag HNIC into the 21^st century on issues as diverse as player safety and statistical analysis but the show as a whole remains firmly lodged in the past. Too often Friedman, who embraces social media and hockey’s growing online voices, is shouted down by PJ Stock and Glenn Healy, the current embodiments of hockey’s archaic “code” culture. Too often the loudest panelist wins on HNIC, regardless of how well his argument has been articulated.

This is one of the many reasons I don’t watch HNIC unless I have no choice.

–Jared Crozier offers us this:

I have laid the blame on the official before, and will probably do so again, so this might be a little hyppocritcal. But at some point the Senators fan base has to look at the team they support and see that it is more their doing than the guys in stripes.

Put aside Jared’s anger at people blaming officials when he plans on blaming them in the future and go more to the point: simply accept NHL officiating is bad and your lives will be more peaceful.

–Jeremy Milks gets self-reflective:

For some reason I’ve gotten that reputation [of liking tough guys over skilled guys] in the Sens small but fiercely opinionated online community and maybe that’s my own fault. … Even if I’m wrong sometimes, I take satisfaction in defending a player that gets almost unanimous scorn. … I don’t want to turn this into another stats argument and point to a bunch of numbers. We all know they’re good.

I like that Jeremy wants to defend underdogs and not simply bow to the opinion of the majority (albeit his opinions are the majority in print/radio/TV media), but I do find his disinclination to deal with stats amusing.  He has to know that stats are a way of describing and analysing the events he’s seeing, so they (should) provide insight rather than get in the way of discussion.

–Jeff Ulmer continues to provide great coverage of Binghamton’s season (the B-Sens finally getting out of their funk as they reclaimed first place in the East); former beat reporter PuckJoy is also doing a great job on Twitter doing the same.

–Peter Morrow offers us his top-20 prospect list; there’s no real analysis (or rationale for how players are compared–is it fulfilling their potential, against each other’s potential, how ready they are, or what?), but for list-lovers everywhere it creates room for debate and discussion.

-I didn’t cite Travis Yost here, but do yourself a favour and follow him (TravisHeHateMe)

-A very different flavour, but PuckPossessed is also someone to watch on your Twitter dial

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 17, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

The Binghamton Senators have passed the 50-game mark and it’s time to take stock and see how the team and the players are performing.  The B-Sens went 5-5-0, keeping them 1st in their division and 3rd in the conference (for their previous ten games go here).  The team’s 191 goals remain 1st in the conference, while their 153 goals has improved to 12th.

Player’s stats (NHL=games in the NHL, ECHL=games in the ECHL):

Mike Hoffman 10-9-9-18 +3
Shane Prince 10-8-5-13 +7
Andre Petersson 9-1-11-12 +12
Jim O’Brien 10-5-5-10 +8
Mark Stone 6-6-3-9 +4
Cole Schneider 10-3-5-8 +2
Jean-Gabriel Pageau 10-2-6-8 +4
Chris Wideman 10-1-7-8 +10
Matt Puempel 8-4-2-6 Even
Corey Cowick 10-3-3-6 +5
David Dziurzynski 9-2-3-5 -1
Daniel New 10-0-5-5 +1
Stephane Da Costa 3-1-3-4 +3 [NHL 8-3-1-4 +1]
Buddy Robinson 9-1-2-3 Even
Mark Borowiecki 10-0-2-2 +5
Wacey Hamilton 9-0-2-2 -3
Michael Sdao 6-2-0-2 +3
Derek Grant 3-2-0-2 +1
Danny Hobbs 2-1-1-2 +3 [ECHL 7-4-2-6 Even]
Fredrik Claesson 10-0-1-1 +3
Darren Kramer 6-0-1-1 Even
Tyler Eckford 5-0-1-1 +3
Ben Blood 9-0-0-0 +6
Ludwig Karlsson [ECHL 12-4-3-7 +1]
Jakub Culek [ECHL 12-2-4-6 +7]
Troy Rutkowski [ECHL 13-0-3-3 -2]

Andrew Hammond 4-3-0 2.73 .901
Nathan Lawson 1-1 2.68 .917
Scott Greenham 1-0-0 3.00 .917

It was a fantastic stretch for Hoffman, who earned an AHL all-star selection.  This is the kind of dominance expected of him at this level when he arrived, but only in his fourth year has he final reached it.  Prince and the rest of the offence also exploded, so it’s easier to focus on players not producing, amounting to two forwards: Robinson (who has truly fallen off since the start of the season) and Hamilton (who just doesn’t put up numbers at this level).  New continues to play regularly, ahead of actual Sens prospects, and it’s interesting that Blood (who offers nothing offensively) played more than Sdao who has a little more punch (in more than one way) than he does.  Petersson lead the team as a plus, while Hamilton was the worst of only two minuses.  Hammond‘s numbers continue to improve (including earning his first shutout) and Greenham won his first start with the B-Sens; Lawson‘s problems in staying healthy remain.  In the ECHL, Culek and Karlsson‘s production remains erratic, while Rutkowski seems a bit behind where they are in his development (certainly his offensive talent has yet to show itself).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 17, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments