-The Sens have gone 3-3-2 since I last checked in, giving up a pile of goals and playing erratically.  This leaves them in the morass of teams on the outside looking in, with a tantalizing chance to make it.  Incomprehensibly, the team recalled Stephane Da Costa back on January 20th–Paul MacLean must have a hard-on for seeing the Frenchman struggle with limited minutes on the fourth line (his two goals against Columbus earned him only 2 more minutes of playing time the following game).

-The team continues to kick the tires for a playoff rental, but Murray’s track record in doing so is largely abysmal so I’d prefer they stayed the course (unless they can remove some dead weight at the same time).

-Binghamton is 6-2 over the last couple of weeks and while both losses were ugly (5-1 to Manchester and 5-2 to Rochester) they’ve played quite well.  Jeff Ulmer’s excellent recaps of those games can be found over at SenShot.  Interestingly enough, the team choose to recall Danny Hobbs rather than one of Ottawa’s prospects (he did well in his first game, picking up a goal and an assist).  Scott Greenham, now back in the ECHL, finally did get an AHL-start with Bingo and won it (against Albany).

-Here’s my look at Binghamton at the forty-game mark.

-In Elmira, Jakub Culek has returned to the lineup and put up good numbers (6-1-6-7); Ludwig Karlsson has gone cold (8-2-4-6) with only one point in his last five; Troy Rutkowski (9-0-1-1) continues to struggle.

–Peter Morrow looks at the Sens pro prospects, but unfortunately it’s a mere summary rather than offering specific insight, scouting reports, or projections for those players.

-Fans may not want to hear about the economics of the team, but money impacts the organisation whether fans like it or not, so its worth tracking.  TSN, having given up on national coverage, locked up regional coverage of the Sens a few days ago.  Travis (via the link) raises the most interesting question: will the extra money Ottawa receives be pumped into the hockey team or into Melnyk’s other business ventures?  The owner isn’t required to do the former, so it will be interesting to watch.

-Here’s a look at how the various players in the Sens system are doing (the ranking in brackets is their position in team scoring for the team or among defenseman, depending on the position of the player):

CHL
Curtis Lazar (WHL) 38-29-25-54 (2nd)
Vincent Dunn (QMJHL) 36-20-17-37 (3rd)
Ben Harpur (OHL) 20-3-13-16 (4th)
Jarrod Maidens (OHL) injured
Chris Driedger (WHL) 20-12-6 2.55 .918
Francois Brassard (QMJHL) 23-9-6 3.00 .908

US Junior
Tim Boyle (USPHL) 29-5-13-18 (2nd)

Swedish Junior
Tobias Lindberg (SuperElit/Allsvenskan) 21-6-5-11/3-0-0-0 (7th)

NCAA
Ryan Dzingel (NCAA) 24-17-19-36 (1st)
Max McCormick (NCAA) 24-10-14-24 (2nd)
Robert Baillargeon (NCAA) 25-6-12-18 (2nd)
Quentin Shore (NCAA) 23-6-13-19 (2nd)
Jeff Costello (NCAA) 27-8-6-14 (7th)
Chris Leblanc (NCAA) 21-5-5-10 (3rd)

Swedish Pro
Mikael Wikstrand (SHL/Allsvenskan) 10-2-3-5 (5th)/27-4-16-20 (1st)
Marcus Hogberg (Allsvenskan) 5-7-0 2.86 .897

Not much has changed among the junior prospects, although Driedger and Brassard‘s numbers have declined and Hogberg‘s have improved.  On the college side a number of players have moved up a little in terms of where they sit in team scoring, but no one has had a meteoric change in their numbers.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 2, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Binghamton Senators have passed the 40-game mark so it’s time to take stock and see how the team and the players are performing.  The B-Sens went 7-3-0 (roaring out of their losing streak), keeping them 1st in their division and 3rd in the conference (for their previous ten games go here).  The team’s 145 goals remain 1st in the conference, while their 122 goals are next to last.

Player’s stats (NHL=games in the NHL, ECHL=games in the ECHL):

Mike Hoffman 10-3-9-12 Even
Stephane Da Costa 10-3-7-10 +3
Chris Wideman 10-3-7-10 -1
Andre Petersson 10-7-2-9 +2
Fredrik Claesson 10-1-8-9 +9
Cole Schneider 10-3-5-8 Even
Matt Puempel 10-5-2-7 -4
Shane Prince 10-3-4-7 +5
Jim O’Brien 10-3-4-7 Even
Corey Cowick 10-3-3-6 -3
Wacey Hamilton 8-1-3-4 -2
Daniel New 10-0-4-4 -1
Jean-Gabriel Pageau 2-0-3-3 +2 [NHL 5-0-0-0 Even]
Buddy Robinson 8-1-2-3 +4
David Dziurzynski 8-1-2-3 -2
Michael Sdao 9-0-2-2 +5
Derek Grant 6-1-0-1 -1
Mark Borowiecki 10-0-1-1 Even
Ben Blood 6-0-0-0 -1
Tyler Eckford 5-0-0-0 -4
Ludwig Karlsson 5-0-0-0 -1 [ECHL 6-2-2-4 -3]
Darren Kramer 3-0-0-0 -3
Troy Rutkowski [ECHL 10-0-3-3 -7]
Jakub Culek [ECHL 6-2-1-3 -4]

Nathan Lawson 3-1-0 2.52 .923
Andrew Hammond 4-2-0 3.20 .898

The recall of Mark Stone to Ottawa didn’t slow Binghamton’s production at all.  Petersson, Prince, and Cowick‘s numbers took a leap forward from the previous ten games, while Grant‘s took a dive.  Claesson continues to be a dominant plus player and his production continues to improve as well (despite that he doesn’t play on the powerplay).  Puempel and Eckford were at the bottom of the minus pile–the veteran defenseman looks completely done, but given that Blood is also on the roster keeps getting rotated in.  New has been a solid addition, but his fit into the lineup is more of an indictment of a weakness of depth than anything else (certainly Rutkowski is not AHL-ready; Borowiecki‘s numbers are also far off his norm).  Hammond‘s numbers continue to slowly improve, but Lawson is the rock of consistency (Richardson had the option of giving Scott Greenham his first start, but choose to go with Hammond).  With Ottawa playing well there’s less likelihood of call-ups, but assuming there isn’t the default of a Pageau recall (so recently returned), Schneider continues to make his case and the aforementioned Claesson might warrant a reward on the blueline.

With a little over half the season completed it’s worth putting these numbers into context, so here’s the overall player stats thus far (rookies have a * next to their name, players beyond their ELC’s are in blue, and those currently in the NHL are in italics):

Mike Hoffman 38-18-27-45 +5 [NHL 3-0-0-0 -2]
Stephane Da Costa 37-12-25-37 +11 [NHL 4-0-0-0 +1]
Cole Schneider 36-14-18-32 +13
Chris Wideman 38-5-24-29 -5
Andre Petersson 32-15-10-25 +7
*Matt Puempel 40-14-7-21 -10
Fredrik Claesson 40-2-19-21 +27
Shane Prince 34-8-12-20 +9
Jean-Gabriel Pageau 17-6-13-19 +7 [NHL 21-2-0-2 -5]
Mark Stone 19-9-9-18 +2 [NHL 7-1-1-2 -1]
*Cody Ceci 24-2-15-17 +8 [NHL 17-1-4-5 +5]
Jim O’Brien 31-6-10-16 +3
*Buddy Robinson 34-7-7-14 +10 [ECHL 1-0-0-0 -1]
Corey Cowick 37-7-6-13 -8
David Dziurzynski 36-3-8-11 +1
Wacey Hamilton 35-2-8-10 -1
Derek Grant 18-4-4-8 +2 [NHL 20-0-2-2 -3]
Mika Zibanejad 6-2-5-7 +1 [NHL 39-10-9-19 -9]
*Michael Sdao 33-2-5-7 +9
Daniel New 15-1-5-6 +1 [ECHL 22-2-9-11 -12]
Darren Kramer 20-2-1-3 -9
Tyler Eckford 25-0-3-3 +5
Mark Borowiecki 27-1-1-2 -2 [NHL 13-1-0-1 -2]
Ben Blood 30-0-2-2 +3
*Troy Rutkowski 8-1-0-1 -5 [22-0-6-6 -7]
*Ludwig Karlsson 8-0-0-0 -3 [22-6-9-15 -6]
*Jakub Culek 2-0-0-0 -2 [ECHL 25-6-12-18 -1]

Nathan Lawson 22-14-5-0 2.52 .923
*Andrew Hammond 21-11-7-3 3.20 .898

Claesson and Schneider are the most improved players from last year, with the two first-round picks (Ceci and Puempel) the most impressive rookies.  Of the trio of rookies who have spent most of their time in the ECHL only Karlsson looks like he might be getting ready for AHL play.  In terms of disappointment, Eckford‘s complete descent from competent veteran defenseman to third-pairing alternate is shocking, while Cowick‘s drop in offensive production is less surprising.  Hoffman and Da Costa‘s dominance is to be expected (especially the Frenchman’s), albeit I had begun to wonder if Hoffman could really bring the noise at the AHL-level.

What remains to be seen is how Binghamton will do in the playoffs and if they can thrive in the many absences of Lawson.  To my mind they could use a defenseman and (possibly) a veteran back-up, but whether or not the organisation agrees or would make such a move is up in the air (if so, I’d expect it over the next 6 weeks or so).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 19, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 7 Comments

-Ottawa rounded out its road trip with a 3-0 over hapless Minnesota.  Robin Lehner picked up the shutout in a game where he wasn’t challenged much.

–Jean-Gabriel Pageau was returned to Binghamton after being outplayed by Matt Kassian.  Just kidding.  Pageau‘s second tour of duty in Ottawa was as unremarkable as his first (13-1-0-1 -2, getting less than ten minutes TOI in roughly half those games).  This isn’t to say that the Pageau hype prior to the season is completely unwarranted, but he’s a young player who I never expected to produce and perform at the same pace as the end of last season.  Time down in Bingo won’t hurt him and he should dominate there.

–Randy Lee talked about his promotion to assistant GM and the comment that stood out for me was this:

We have one of the smaller staffs in the NHL, to be very honest

This is on top of the fact that it was even smaller under John Muckler.  Full credit goes to the organisation for being able to do what it does with so few people.

–Travis Yost looks at which NHL teams are improving/sliding via score-adjusted Fenwick.  New Jersey, Tampa, and Boston (in the east) as the best over the last 20 games or so, while Toronto, Buffalo, and the Islanders are the worst.  Ottawa gets the most improved score under that metric (Pittsburgh has the biggest decline).

-Binghamton fell 5-3 to Adirondack last night, despite Corey Cowick‘s three points.

–Jeff Ulmer offers us his second quarter grades for Binghamton and see’s the following players improving: Fredrik Claesson, Chris Wideman, Cole Schneider, Mark Stone, Jim O’Brien, David Dziurzynski, and Tyler Eckford.  On the regression front he has Buddy Robinson, Shane Prince, Corey Cowick, Stephane Da Costa, Ben Blood, Andrew Hammond, and Nathan Lawson.  He has Michael Sdao, Matt Puempel, Andre Petersson, Mike Hoffman, and Wacey Hamilton at the same level, while all other players either have no point of comparison from the first quarter or else not enough sample size to judge.  The only real surprise for me in either of these lists is Prince, who for whatever reason hasn’t been able to put it together this season (sophomore jinx?).  I imagine Blood will find his way to Elmira whenever the team is happy enough with its depth at the AHL level.  Shedding Eckford‘s large salary will have to wait for the off-season it would seem.  I’ll have my own look at Binghamton on Sunday after they hit the 40 game mark.

-Prospect Curtis Lazar‘s stock is on the rise, albeit I’m not sure what impact that really has in the grand scheme of things other than the Sens being unwilling to move him (which itself is no surprise).  For those who want in-depth scouting reports on Lazar go here.

-The call-up of Scott Greenham to Binghamton had me wondering about his numbers so here’s a detailed look.  He’s 6-10-2, 3.08, and .909 (these are better numbers than Devil’s prospect Maxime Clermont, who he shares the net with), with a .900 or better save percentage in 11 of 19 starts.  He’s given up 4+ goals in 7 of those games, but I think GAA is a less important stat given how dependent the number and quality of chances are a result of the team in front of you.  Last year (with Bakersfield) in 36 games Greenham was .900 or better in 20 games (finishing with an overall number that’s almost identical to what he has this year, .908).  Has he improved?  It’s hard to tell.  His ratio is slightly better than last season and in each case he played on awful teams, but the margins are too close to be sure.  It will be interesting to see how he performs with Binghamton.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 16, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-Ottawa played two games since my last post, choking away a game to Colorado in overtime (4-3), and then beating Nashville in a shootout (2-1).  The Sens keep picking up points which irrespective of how they play is a good thing (and for those of you who don’t like the three-point games–it keeps the standings close and believe me, having grown up in the previous era, it’s a much better system).

–Travis Yost looks at Ottawa’s playoff chances and he sums it up this way:

The math’s [to make it is] still not good, but what Ottawa’s done in the last month or so has almost certainly given their fan base a reason to believe that they may have an inside track on a playoff berth — something I never would have suggested during those ugly November games.

I was a little more optimistic than Travis early in the season, but I’d almost given up before the Sens began to climb.

-The always engaging Amelia L offers some thoughts and I wanted to comment on two of them: Erik Karlsson‘s physical play (as evidenced in the Colorado game)–I think it’s easy to forget that before he came to Ottawa Karlsson threw big hits, but largely cut that out of his game in the NHL after getting hurt hitting Ryan Kesler in his rookie season.  As a smaller player he has to pick his spots, but I’m not surprised to see it crop up in his game from time to time.  Amelia also asks the pertinent question of whether or not Cody Ceci can keep playing at his current level given the sophomore jinx and how easily players (ala Jared Cowen) can slip early in their careers.  It’s good food for thought.

-My favourite part of Tim Murray’s news conference after he was announced as Buffalo’s new GM was this:

And obviously ownership allows you to do your job. It allows you to spend money when the time is right, but that’s on the ice.

There’s only one interpretation of this: my previous owner (Melnyk) wasn’t allowing the organisation to spend money.

-The shakeup has Varada in a thoughtful mood:

With all the hand-wringing about money, and Melnyk’s propensity for playing with the sentiment of fans to pressure city council, I am not looking forward to a prolonged—years-long, potentially—debate with my city councillor, my mayor, my family, my boss, my girlfriend, my colleagues, James’ dog, etc. about the role of the sports franchise as a public institution and its right (or lack thereof) to public funding. Personally, I tend to fall on the side of “a few tax breaks” rather than “tens or hundreds of millions in public dollars,” but I think the latter is where we’re headed. That’s the precedent, and Melnyk will say “me too” when the time is right. Fair-weather fan Ottawa will slap on the chastity belt, and the debate will go on for-fucking-ever.

I’m with Varada in not wanting to open the public purse for the team, but a cash-strapped Melnyk is certainly going to push for that.  On the plus side, it’s pretty clear that the NHL itself won’t allow his shenanigans to get too crazy (ala threatening to move the team), given the tenacity with which Bettman has shown in keeping franchises where they are no matter what.  I don’t think there’s much public sentiment to fund Eugene’s plans, but the public has little to do with political decisions.

-Speaking of the organisation, an extension for Bryan Murray is all but done.  There’s not much to say about it other than it is a good move for the franchise.

-Binghamton went 2-1 since I last wrote, beating Rochester (3-1) and Hershey (4-2) before losing to Adirondack (4-1) and losing Nathan Lawson to injury (again).  At the end of the stretch Ludwig Karlsson was returned to Elmira (having not produced during his stay), which indicates there are enough healthy forwards in Binghamton to do so.  In the meantime the team has recalled Scott Greenham to back-up Andrew Hammond; they have also summoned Troy Rutkowski after improved (albeit not productive) play in Elmira.

-Speaking of the Jackals, they are in the midst of a tailspin, losing three straight on the weekend and only scoring three goals.  Jakub Culek did not play in the last two games and I may or may not be injured.

–Joy Lindsay writes about Fredrik Claesson and there’s a lot of good material, starting with comments from Luke Richardson:

But he’s a really good kid, he doesn’t get frustrated, he doesn’t get down on himself — even after a mistake. You show him the video, and he listens and he learns. This year, he came in with a little more confidence, and … every shift when I put him on the ice, I can count on him. Because of our younger defence this year, we rely on him more … he’s really taken the opportunity and run with it. Sometimes guys take a little longer and they feel their way in. He’s really made the step and jumped at it and really taken a hold of it in all situations and done really well.

Assistant coach Steve Stirling adds:

Even though he’s only a second-year pro, with the young defence that we have, we’re counting on him to be a veteran. Most nights, he’s playing with Mike Sdao or Benny Blood, and those are two really young kids who are right where Freddy was a year ago. He’s been a mainstay, and it’s helped those two progress, slowly but surely.

Digest that comment a little: two four-year college grads, one of whom (Blood) is in his second pro season, are learning from the younger Claesson.  It’s a great compliment to Freddy, but an interesting one for his partners (especially Blood).  It’s all good news for the Sens and the odds look good that they have a future safe, third-pairing blueliner in the making.

–Mark Volain takes a look at the Eastern Conference in the AHL and remarks upon Mike Hoffman‘s fantastic first half of the season (mostly summarizing).

–D. J. Powers looks at the NCAA scene through December and only comments on one Sens collegian, Ryan Dzingel:

Dzingel is quietly having a career year with the Buckeyes. In December, he posted two goals and six assists in Ohio State’s three games during the month. The Wheaton, IL native has been the driving force behind the Buckeyes offense this season. After finishing with 38 points last season, Dzingel is on pace to top the 40-point plateau this season. He has appeared in all 16 games for Ohio State so far and leads the team with 23 points (10 goals, 13 assists).

No analysis here, just a stats summary, but worth keeping in mind and is the kind of thing Pierre Dorion was referencing when he talked about NCAA prospects being ready for the pro game.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 13, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-The Sens continued to win since my last post, beating Winnipeg (4-3) and then Montreal (4-3) in overtime.  Neither game was a Picasso, but Ottawa has to be happy with every win they can get.  Mark Stone scored after being called up, which can only help his chances of staying with the team (I don’t think he has a future as a checker–his skating just isn’t strong enough to play that role).

–Travis Yost provides the data the illustrates how good a penalty killer Erik Karlsson is.  Given his talent this comes as no surprise, although Travis may have a point that ideally he shouldn’t be on the PK.

-Speaking of Travis, he illustrates how much better Ottawa’s third line is with Neil replaced by Condra, yet another piece of evidence that the dreaded Neil-Smith-Greening combination just doesn’t work.

–Nichols put on his transcribing hat to give us the goods on Paul MacLean’s recent interview and he had a lot to say about Cody Ceci:

Well, during the lockout when Cody was here with the 67s, I went to watch him and I would go home. Like, I wouldn’t even watch the whole game. I’d be like, ‘Oh, it can’t be. He can’t be… how could we pick this guy? Our scouts are way better than this.’ But he was playing a different game and a different type of system. And every once in a while you could see it. (Our scouts) told me he could really skate, but you never really saw that with the 67s that year, whether or not beforehand they must have saw it but that year. And then I saw him play with Team Canada in Halifax in the summertime. My son Adrian and I went up to Halifax to watch one of those Russian/Canada things and he had a bad night that night too. So my (report) card on Cody wasn’t very flattering coming into training camp to begin with, but I said, ‘He’s a young player. He has all these tools to put into the toolbox, so don’t overrate him too early.’ And I thought that in training camp, he came in and played very well. He skated and we (said) to him, ‘You need to skate. If you’re not going to defend by using your feet and skate, then you’re not going to have any chance to play in the league.’ And he took to coaching like a duck to water and then he went down with Luke (Richardson) and obviously continued to do the same things down there. He turned himself into, arguably, the best player in the American Hockey League over the strength of October and most of November before we called him up. He was like, the best player in the league and that says a lot. It’s a pretty good league when you get down there and get playing. And he’s come up here and he’s continued to do what he did down there. Obviously he had it in him and we just had to find the right tap to open up and get it to come out.

Calling him the best player in the AHL is (as Nichols points out) high praise (albeit likely hyperbole), and I agree that Ceci‘s play has allowed Murray to stop trying to force a trade for a defenseman.  MacLean also talked about Mika Zibanejad:

his strength and his size is one of his strengths and he’s been good. He’s been through the middle of the rink, like 200 feet, like impressively. He’s really done a good job of getting through the middle of the rink and when you have a centerman that can do that, it makes a huge difference in your offence and what they can bring and how the other team has to defend you and what they need to do to be able to counter what you’re doing. He’s just taken the bull by the horns a little bit now and you’re starting to see him, when he’s playing good, he’ll start getting against better players and challenging them a little bit. But, he’s stepped up and he’s answered those physical challenges when people have tried to get up in his face and tried to get him to back off a little bit. To his credit, he’s come back out and put his foot on the gas pedal and gone right through them.

This isn’t news to most Sens fans, but given MacLean’s reluctance to play him a lot this season it’s an encouraging thing to hear.

–Erik Karlsson has (not surprisingly) made Sweden’s Olympic roster; more surprisingly, Milan Michalek made the Czech team.  It’s a good thing for the team that so few players will be going to Sochi, as there’s less chance for injury or fatigue.

-The flap regarding Brian Burke’s comments on Bobby Ryan has been covered extensively and all I’ll add is that his exclusion from Team USA is a plus for the other squads.

-Binghamton went 2-1 over the weekend, beating Manchester (5-4) and Syracuse (6-5 OT), before falling to Hershey (4-1).  From all reports the B-Sens pooped the bed in their final game, but after winning seven straight a letdown isn’t surprising.

-Since I last looked at Sens players in Elmira, Jakub Culek has posted average numbers (5-2-1-3), while Troy Rutkowski has pulled out of his offensive drought (5-0-2-2).

–Pierre Dorion offered his thoughts on the Sens prospects at the WJC (Curtis Lazar, Marcus Hogberg, and Quentin Shore):

Curtis is going on a real good trend right now. I think he’s having a great season with his Edmonton team and that carried over to the World Junior team. I think the way the coaches used him, I think he was a key part of the team, I think he’s a high character kid. The way he handles the puck, the way he puck with pace, the way he drives offensively, the way he goes to tough areas — he can score goals just with his release but he can also score goals in tight — he makes plays off the cycle, I think he is very responsible defensively, he’ll block shots, he’ll do all the little things you need to do to win and I think we got a high character there.

It’s tough to say when someone [Hogberg] doesn’t play a lot and they weren’t really tested. In that game [10-0 win over Norway] I think he had to make two or three big saves, I think one went off the shoulder. He looked big in his net, he looked comfortable. I think Rick Wamsley going over there spending time with him, with his team, was very beneficial for him and I think he is headed in the right direction.

I think his [Shore] development has been going really good, I think we drafted a good player there, especially in the late rounds. I think he understands the game, I think he has got to get stronger and quicker and I think Randy (Lee) has addressed that with him as far as those things. He is smart, he knows how to play above the puck, he knows how to get in lanes to check, he has got good skills for a role player. I think down the road, I don’t think we’re going to see someone who is going to come in here and get a lot of points, but I think with his progression and development he has a chance to be an NHL player one day.

Dorion also briefly spoke about the system in general:

I think obviously the first two guys that we drafted last year, Lazar and Hogberg, are having — Lazar has been having a good season and Hogberg has been up and down. I think we’ve got a few guys that are coming out in major junior this year that we’re going to have big decisions to make on with Chris Driedger and Francois Brassard. We also have some college players on their way that could be good pros.

Assuming Dorion’s college comment is specifically on those close to turning pro, this could reference any or all of Jeff Costello (09), Max McCormick (11), and Ryan Dzingel (11).

-The boys at WTYKY (who cluttered up Twitter this morning by spamming movie titles, to the consternation of anyone who wanted to see anything else on their Twitter feed) made the excellent choice of bringing Puck Possessed into the fold to feature her always entertaining illustrations.  Check them out if you haven’t already.

-To any StarCraft fans who follow the blog, I’ve created a separate one for it.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 7, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

-We’ve all rung in the New Year and the Sens have to hope 2014 starts the same way 2013 did.  Since my last post, Ottawa has gone 3-2-1, with wins over Pittsburgh (5-0), Boston (4-3), and Washington (3-1), with losses to Florida (4-2), Phoenix (4-3 OT), and Boston (5-0).  While underlying trends might be improving (you can judge for yourself where things are at), the bottom line remains as erratic as the rest of the season.  The injury bug has hit the team, unintentionally removing many of Paul MacLean’s irrational love affairs for veteran players: Jason Spezza (hip, 28th), Chris Neil (leg muscle, 30th), and Chris Phillips (foot, 28th)–Travis Yost delves into the changes it forced in how players were being used and why they were good for the team.  The carnage has resulted in the recall of Mark Stone from Binghamton.

-Speaking of Spezza, Nichols does a great job looking at the expectations for him coming into this season and what’s happened to him since.  For those beating the trade drums (and Nichols only says there were good reasons to do so before the season started), I wish them good luck with that this season.  No one who might want him has the cap room, so he’ll be around through the rest of the season.

-Another veteran player who had a rough start to the season gets some love from Jeremy Milks, who points out much of Craig Anderson‘s struggles are due to him getting destroyed by Western Conference teams.  This idea would carry more weight if he’d compared it to Robin Lehner‘s numbers with the same distinction, but comparative analysis isn’t Jeremy’s strong suit (even if correct he’s also damning with faint praise–while losing to the West is understandable, getting obliterated by them does not mesh with Andy being an elite goaltender).

–Amelia L provides her top-ten headlines for the Sens through 2013 (alas, Melnyk’s CSI investigation was not referenced).

-Despite the season seemingly lost in terms of playoff possibilities, rumours continue to swirl that the Sens are taking a run at Ranger defenseman Michael Del Zotto (passim, along with some fuel for the fire).  The same problems that confronted that effort earlier in the season haven’t changed and now that we’re half way through the season I don’t see what the point is.  The team should let their your young blueliners develop and leave it at that.

–Here is my look at player performances through games 21-40.

-Binghamton has won five straight games since my last post, defeating Syracuse (5-2), Albany (3-2), Hershey (4-1), Utica (4-3), and Norfolk (3-2).  The primary difference for the B-Sens was the return of Nathan Lawson from injury, but is also a compliment to their no-name blueline given the absence of Cody Ceci (resulting in Danny New being in Bingo).  The loss of Stone has meant Binghamton has recalled Ludwig Karlsson from Elmira (Cowick and Grant are also injured).

-My review of Binghamton’s performance through games 21-30.

-Former B-Sen Louie Caporusso has left Reading (ECHL) to join Augsburger in the DEL.  It’s a good move for the college grad who just doesn’t have the chops to be a regular AHL player.

-It has been awhile since I posted a prospect update, so here’s a look at how the various players in the Sens system are doing (the ranking in brackets is their position in team scoring for the team or among defenseman, depending on the position of the player):

CHL
Curtis Lazar (WHL) 27-21-15-37 +22 (2nd)
Vincent Dunn (QMJHL) 29-16-11-27 +4 (3rd)
Ben Harpur (OHL) 36-3-11-14 +25 (4th)
Jarrod Maidens (OHL) injured
Chris Driedger (WHL) 15-7-5 2.32 .927
Francois Brassard (QMJHL) 15-7-6 2.47 .907

US Junior
Tim Boyle (USPHL) 27-5-12-17 n/a (2nd)

Swedish Junior
Tobias Lindberg (SuperElit) 21-6-5-11 -4 (7th)

NCAA
Ryan Dzingel (NCAA) 16-10-13-23 +7 (1st)
Max McCormick (NCAA) 16-7-11-18 -1 (2nd)
Robert Baillargeon (NCAA) 17-5-8-13 +7 (1st)
Quentin Shore (NCAA) 17-3-10-13 -4 (t-2nd)
Jeff Costello (NCAA) 18-5-4-9 +3 (9th)
Chris Leblanc (NCAA) 15-2-4-6 -1 (t-4th)

Swedish Pro
Mikael Wikstrand (SHL/Allsvenskan) 3-1-1-2 Even (n/a)/27-4-16-20 +5 (1st)
Marcus Hogberg (Allsvenskan) 4-5-0 3.14 .891

Both Lazar, Shore, and Hogberg are on their respective World Junior squads (the latter serving as Sweden’s backup).  Not many surprises here, although Costello‘s numbers are low for a fourth-year college player, while Baillargeon‘s are excellent for a freshman.  I wonder if Dzingel will feel tempted to turn pro at the end of this year (his third), as I’m not sure what he has left to prove at the college-level.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 2, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

The Binghamton Senators have passed the 30-game mark so it’s time to take stock and see how the team and the players are performing.  The B-Sens went 4-3-3, putting them 1st in their division and 3rd in the conference (for their previous ten games go here).  The team’s 107 goals remain 1st in the conference, while their 90 goals are tied for 11th worst.

Player’s stats (NHL=games in the NHL, ECHL=games in the ECHL):

Cole Schneider 7-5-6-11 +5
Mark Stone 9-5-5-10 -1
Mike Hoffman 8-5-4-9 -2 [NHL 3-0-0-0 -2]
Stephane Da Costa 10-3-5-8 +2
Fredrik Claesson 10-1-6-7 +3
Chris Wideman 10-0-7-7 -5
Derek Grant 9-1-5-6 +1 [NHL 1-0-0-0 Even]
Jim O’Brien 10-2-3-5 +2
Andre Petersson 10-1-4-5 -2
Matt Puempel 10-3-1-4 -2
David Dziurzynski 10-2-1-3 +2
Jean-Gabriel Pageau 4-1-1-2 +1 [NHL 8-1-0-1 -2]
Cody Ceci 4-0-2-2 +2 [NHL 8-1-1-2 -1]
Danny New 5-1-1-2 +2 [ECHL 6-1-5-6 Even]
Buddy Robinson 8-1-1-2 Even [ECHL 1-0-0-0 -1]
Mark Borowiecki 8-1-0-1 -2 [NHL 1-0-0-0 -1]
Michael Sdao 8-0-1-1 -2
Corey Cowick 8-0-1-1 -4
Wacey Hamilton 7-0-1-1 -1
Shane Prince 6-0-1-1 +2
Ben Blood 8-0-0-0 Even
Tyler Eckford 6-0-0-0 +2
Darren Kramer 4-0-0-0 -2
Troy Rutkowski 1-0-0-0 Even [ECHL 8-0-2-2 -3]
Jakub Culek [ECHL 8-1-5-6 -4]
Ludwig Karlsson [ECHL 9-2-6-8 +1]

Nathan Lawson 3-1-0 2.37 .928
Andrew Hammond 1-2-3 3.33 .895

The B-Sens went through the bulk of an awful losing streak in the absence of Lawson, but have bounced back since the veteran returned.  Hammond wasn’t terrible during the streak, but isn’t ready to take on that kind of workload.  On the positive side, Schneider is red-hot and a healthy Stone along with Hoffman and Da Costa are lighting it up.  Claesson is providing unexpected offence, matching Wideman‘s tally over the stretch as the pair took over the scoring duties in Ceci‘s absence.  On the downside, Cowick‘s season last year is looking more and more like a fluke as he cannot produce, Prince (when in the lineup) is struggling again, and Robinson was demoted briefly due to performance.  On the blueline Blood and Eckford add nothing offensively and Borowiecki is well off his usual pace.  Rutkowski has been mediocre in Elmira, while Culek has cooled off in the ECHL while Karlsson is heating up (we might see him called up in the near future).  Schneider lead the team as a plus (+5), while Wideman anchored the team as a minus (-5).  It’s difficult to guess what the parent club might do if they choose to call up a player (this would require sending someone down or an injury/trade), but at this point it would be hard to ignore Schneider (Claesson, alas, just has too many bodies in front of him while Ottawa is healthy).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 27, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

-The Sens went 2-2 since I last wrote, narrowly beating the hapless Buffalo 2-1 (boxscore), losing to powerhouse Los Angeles 5-2 (boxscore), defeating St. Louis 3-2 in overtime (boxscore), and then dropping a disappointing effort 5-2 to the mediocre Devils (boxscore and Amelia L‘s excellent recap; the game featured Marc Methot as a healthy scratch).  The latter loss sent Paul MacLean over the top and he blasted the team afterward:

We’re an inconsistent group. We can’t get the puck out of our zone. We play good against good teams. We play bad against teams below us. That’s just a lack of focus, a lack of leadership and that’s a lack of us wanting to play in the National Hockey League and be an elite team. We are a long, long way from being an elite team.

No one can argue with MacLean about the team’s inconsistency or them not being elite, but the shot at leadership is interesting.  Jason Spezza has been a target of criticism throughout his career, but media darlings Chris Phillips and Chris Neil are sacrosanct in print/radio and I don’t doubt that the focus from local journalists will remain fixated on the captain (it does make you wonder if MacLean misses having Daniel Alfredsson in the room).  Regardless, the comment smacks of desperation (as does the insertion of Matt Kassian into the lineup for tonight’s game).  Is MacLean truly at the end of his rope?  At some point I thought we might see his line combinations come in line with analytics, but whatever stock the coaching staff puts into Corsi et al it clearly does not sway the many gut feels we see game-in and game-out.  The various closed-door meetings seem pretty useless to me–has any team turned it around in the regular season because of a meeting?  Needless to say, the fanbase is collectively losing it’s shit.

–Travis Yost explores the data to see which forwards are weighing down their linemates and the long trend of Spezza‘s bad season is obvious (Jeremy Milks argues he could use consistent wingers, which is true), whose only real compatriot is Milan Michalek (the two really stand well below anyone else).  Kyle Turris and Clarke MacArthur are outstanding (as expected), and Mika Zibanejad‘s numbers continue to demonstrate he’s underutilized.

–Varada warms the cockles of my heart by talking about the most annoying term of analysis in hockey: compete level.

I think that trying to quantify “effort” in pro sports is a game of diminishing returns—if you’re looking to consistently gain advantage over another group of pro athletes, “trying harder” or raising your “compete level” probably isn’t the way to do it. Some teams or players have lazy moments, but I would wager those are extremely insignificant outliers on an overall level of competition that, to us mere mortals, is unfathomable. Everybody tries hard.  I suspect that when I hear “effort,” like when I hear “focus” or “leadership” or “grit,” what I’m actually hearing is an easy substitution for any number of more nuanced and complex reasons for why a team might stink. Effort is always unquantifiable, so, there can always be more of it. What’s worrisome is that you hear these platitudes the most from Paul MacLean. Now, MacLean isn’t exactly going to get up in front of the media and outline the Xs and Os of his playbook for all the world to see. What else is he going to say other than, “We need to get ready for the next game, prepare properly, and raise our compete level”? But I’m telling you—if this is what the players are getting in the dressing room, I don’t know how mad we can be about the Sens’ current record. After almost half a season of hearing about compete level, it’s starting to sound obnoxiously disconnected from the real world.

This is sweet, sweet music to my ears.  I want to punch every hack who goes on about “compete level” or any other effort-related euphemism and those punches are going to go Paul MacLean’s way soon if he doesn’t shut up about it.  Varada is absolutely correct that coach’s aren’t going to detail the specific flaws in their team or players, but they need to mix it up a little–many fans take to heart that a player isn’t trying hard, apparently unaware of the fact that you can’t be a regular NHL player without working your ass off.  Players sometimes make bad decisions, but the effort is always there.

-Despite the disappointing season, Eugene Melnyk is negotiating to extend Bryan Murray.  This comes as no surprise as the faults this year largely lay in the lap of the owner rather than the GM.

-Binghamton lost both its games since I last wrote, dropping a 5-2 decision to Utica (boxscore and Jeff Ulmer‘s recap) and then a 7-4 game to Hershey (boxscore and Jeff‘s recap).  Andrew Hammond took both losses as Luke Richardson wasn’t willing to play his now-released PTO goalie.  Despite the long losing streak, Richardson remains positive, in contrast to MacLean.  Admittedly, Luke is under a lot less pressure, but I prefer his handling of the B-Sens.  The return of Nathan Lawson will definitely help matters.

-I took at look at how Sens prospects and players on AHL contracts are performing in Elmira.

-Speaking of prospects, Peter Morrow writes about the Sens prospects (focussing on those in junior), but doesn’t offer much analysis.

–Mikael Wikstrand has joined Frolunda, having clearly outgrown the Allsvenskan.

–SkinnyFish takes a look at Steve Simmons inability to remain consistent (along with his struggle with analytics)–a problem many of his colleagues share.

–The Raaymaker departs from his usual poorly thought out opinion pieces to review Stan Fischler’s Behind the Net.  Hockey books aren’t generally my thing, but for those interested he provides a reasonable summary of the contents.

-The NHL is talking expansion and the usual chestnuts of Las Vegas and Seattle are being floated.  The former has been described as an option since the 1980s while the latter has come up since the 90s.  I can’t say the chatter excites me at all.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 19, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

I thought I’d take a look at how Sens prospects (and B-Sens signees) are performing in Elmira (for those who don’t know, both Ottawa and New Jersey share Elmira as an ECHL affiliate).  The Jackals are 9-11-2, which makes them 10th in the Eastern Conference.  Like every ECHL team, their lineup fluctuates constantly, but as a constant throughout the league it’s no more or less a factor for their competition (the weirdest instance was Jordon Southorn departing for Britain’s EIHL, only to come back shortly thereafter to play for Fort Wayne).  I’m not going to tackle the issue of whether winning matters for a prospect’s development (off the cuff I’d say good coaching is more important, but I’m not a fan of gut feels as fact so take that with a large grain of salt).  At some point in the future I’m sure there will be advanced statistics like Corsi at this level (I’ve always liked Graphic Comments‘ explanation of them), but for now we have the more traditional stats to work with (in this case I’m only interested in their ECHL stats).  Note: I’ve ignored Buddy Robinson, as he suited up for only a single game before being recalled to Binghamton.

Ottawa prospects (those on their ELC; all are rookies):

Jakub Culek (C/LW)
2012-13 QMJHL 9-4-3-7 ppg 0.77 (missed most of the season due to injury/junior technicalities)
2013-14 ECHL 17-4-11-15 ppg 0.88
I haven’t always been kind to Culek as a prospect, but at least at this level the 21-year old leads the team in scoring, points-per-game, and plus/minus; the one critique I could make is he doesn’t shoot enough (32 SOG), but that’s a pretty minor flaw in what has been a great start to his pro career in Elmira.  He’s seen action in two AHL games.

Ludwig Karlsson (LW)
2012-13 NCAA 17-5-3-8 ppg 0.47 (missed half the season with a wrist injury)
2013-14 ECHL 13-3-4-7 ppg 0.50
The 22-year old free agent signees’ performance took a step back after suffering a concussion and it’s only in his last four games that he’s rounded into form (4-2-2-4 +2).  Due to the injury, it’s difficult to assess his play, but he should dominate at this level.  His three games in Binghamton don’t permit much analysis.

Troy Rutkowski (D)
2012-13 WHL 72-20-46-66 ppg 0.91
2013-14 ECHL 9-0-3-3 ppg 0.33
The 21-year old unsigned Colorado draft pick has spent less than half the season with Elmira, so it’s difficult to really judge his performance, but it’s clearly better than what he’s shown in his six games in Binghamton.  He should dominate here and I think if he spends enough time with the Jackals he will.

AHL-contracts:

Danny Hobbs (LW)
2012-13 ECHL 53-9-22-31 ppg 0.58
2013-14 ECHL 22-7-6-13 ppg 0.59
The 24-year old ex-Greenville Road Warrior and former Ranger draft pick is on par with his performance last year; he’s very unlikely to see time in Binghamton.

Danny New (D)
2012-13 ECHL 21-2-9-11 ppg 0.52
2013-14 ECHL 22-2-9-11 ppg 0.50
24-year old blueliner attended the Sens 2010 development camp and spent half of last season in Binghamton; his numbers (like Hobbs above) are a mirror-image of the previous season, although he’s saddled with an awful plus/minus (-12).  He has played one AHL game this season, with more to come given his call-up today.

Scott Greenham (G)
2012-13 ECHL 11-19-3 3.39 .908
2013-14 ECHL 5-6-1 2.59 .920
The 26-year old ex-Bakersfield Condor attended the Sens 2011 development camp and is in the midst of his best pro season.  He hasn’t started since December 6th and is apparently injured.

Both Karlsson and Culek are going to struggle to get much AHL action given the glut of forwards in Binghamton, but Rutkowski can push his way onto the blueline given the relative thinness at that position.  I’m not sure if Greenham has AHL-chops, but goaltender development is about as strange as it can get, so it will be interesting to see if/when he gets his shot.  I think New is a player who will generally bounce back and forth between levels.

Sens/B-Sens players who played in Elmira last year have all had varied paths this season (New is above): Ben Blood has been a Binghamton regular and appears to have benefitted substantially from his time with the Jackals; Darren Kramer is also a regular, but I’m less certain his game has evolved; Louie Caporusso continues to be an ECHL star (with Reading, but no transition to the next level); Dustin Gazley is also with Reading, but isn’t having the same success; Jack Downing joined Boston’s organisation and has had a cup of coffee with Providence.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 16, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-Ottawa played three straight shootout games, losing to Toronto (boxscore), beating Philadelphia (boxscore), and then losing to Buffalo (boxscore), who they face again tonight.  The Sens sent down Mike Hoffman and replaced him with Jean-Gabriel Pageau; they also called up Cody Ceci as Jared Cowen is suspended for two games and Marc Methot has the flu.

-Speaking of Hoffman, Nichols echoes my thoughts:

A few days after Paul MacLean emphasized how pleased he has been with the way that Mike Hoffman has played, today it was announced that Hoffman had been demoted to the Binghamton Senators.

It’s getting a little absurd how much the organisation yoyo’s its comments on players (Defense Minister was having some fun with that on Twitter today, relating to Mika Zibanejad).  Bobby Kelly expounds on his frustration with how the organisation handled Hoffman.

–Travis Yost sums up my thoughts about Zibanejad:

One of the things I’ve really been harping on this season — and again, it’s one of my only two objections with Paul MacLean’s deployment; I’ve absolved him of most of the team’s struggles this year — is the continued supressed usage of F Mika Zibanejad. Since the summer, particularly due to the way this roster has been assembled, it became clear to me rather quickly that if Zibanejad could transition to the wing, he’d be quite the weapon for this team — and allow for ideal line combination structure. Zibanejad was laughably cut from the team for reasons unknown, but since his call-up, he’s more or less tore through the competition. He’s the team’s best raw neutral zone player (probably second-best when adjusted for quality of competition), leads the team in EV possession, and generates shots at league-high levels. The argument to have him logging big minutes is hugely-supported; the argument to suppress his minutes (and consequently, create big minutes for lesser forwards) is far less supported. The idea that the Swedish forward suddenly morphed into a guy who can handle top-six minutes is rather ludicrous, particularly when you look at all of the available data and video from last season. I had doubts that Zibanejad could comfortably transition to wing, but a few games with Jason Spezza later, I saw a guy who reminded me a whole lot of the good Alexander Semin — not nearly as polished offensively, but twice as ready to fight away from the puck, defending his net.

–Nichols looks at the Sens playoff odds and offers us this (the third column is the required winning percentage for the Sens):

–Eric T looks at how to bring shot quality into player evaluation:

The stat community relies heavily on shot differential measures (Corsi and Fenwick) that don’t make any effort to account for the quality of those shots. But of course shot quality also has to matter a little bit, so why not try to factor it in?

He overviews Delta, the term for measuring shot quality and concludes:

Delta is even a slightly worse predictor of future Delta.

Eric offers five suggestions to make the approach more useful.

-Binghamton has continued to lose, dropping three more games since my last post (4-2 to Hershey (boxscore and Jeff Ulmer‘s recap);  3-2 to Albany (boxscore and Jeff‘s recap); and 4-3 to the Bears last night (boxscore and Jeff‘s recap)).  The latter two losses were via shootout (echoing the parent club).

-Elmira lost 2-1 last night with Jakub Culek scoring the lone goal for the Jackals.  I don’t know if Culek has AHL-chops, but among the Sens prospects toiling in the ECHL he’s been the best, as he’s now tied with Jordan Pietrus for the team’s scoring lead (but with a much better PPG ratio).  Neither Ludwig Karlsson nor Troy Rutkowski have dominated, although the former may still be dealing with the after effects of his concussion.  AHL-signee Danny New has decent numbers (20-1-8-9), but has the second worst plus/minus on the team (-12).  Danny Hobbs has been adequate, but neither he nor New are likely to see action in Binghamton barring major injuries.  Scott Greenham is having a career year (this is his third in the ECHL), but given that Binghamton choose to sign Rob Madore (playing for Cincinnati in the ECHL) to a PTO rather than recall him while Nathan Lawson recovers from injury presumably says something. [It seems as if Greenham is injured, as he hasn’t started for Elmira since December 6th.]

-I always liked Peter Regin, but his time on the Island hasn’t changed him from the sad shadow of his former self as he was last season (29-1-3-4 statistical line thus far).  Ouch.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 12, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments