-Paul MacLean won the Jack Adams trophy as the NHL’s coach of the year, while Daniel Alfredsson won the Mark Messier award for leadership.  Both wins are well-deserved and it’s a nice pat on the back from the hockey establishment.

–Travis Yost dives into team shooting percentage in the NHL in order to make some sense out of it.  He believes the idea of shot quality is overrated, with the evidence illustrating that puck possession and goaltending are what’s really relevant to a team’s success.

-There has been a proliferation of mock drafts, but not many by anyone notable.  NHL.com‘s latest (consisting of Adam Kimmelman, Mike G. Morreale, and Steven Hoffner) has the Sens picking: Max Domi (x2) or Kerby Rychel.  Last year Kimmelman correctly predicted the Sens would take Cody Ceci in the first round.

–Dave Young wonders why there are so many UFA speculation stories surrounding the Sens and doesn’t hit on the most obvious reason: bloggers and journalists have to write about something and there’s just not that much news to report.

-Speaking of idle speculation, Mark Parisi imagines a world where Mika Zibanejad is trade bait for any top player on the St. Louis Blues.  I have no idea why he believes the Blues have an interest in Mika (or the Sens in moving him), but for those who like to dream that dream, enjoy!

-More European free agents have come off the market, with Reto Suri signing with Tampa and Joacim Eriksson going to Vancouver.

-Nashville somehow turned Ottawa castaway Bobby Butler into an asset (T. J. Brennan).  Neither Florida or Nashville have to sign their new players (both are RFA’s), but it would be odd to make the transaction without that intent.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 17, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Kaspars Daugavins talked about the differences between Ottawa and Boston:

Well, the first thing probably was that the guys are really serious. There is a lot on the line on this team; they want to win. I saw that right away when I came in. I knew these guys are in for a job and were more serious than Ottawa maybe. I know these guys can win. They work hard in practice. They work hard after practice in June. I knew this would be a good team to play for.

I agree with Nichols that this isn’t Daugavins taking a shot at his former teammates, but rather him contrasting where the organisations are right now (Cup contender versus rebuilding franchise).

-Lacklustre Senator Mike Lundin has read the tea leaves and seen no future in the NHL and signed a KHL deal with Barys Astana.

–worsteverything contemplates potential free agent signings for the Sens, which makes for fun reading, but I don’t think any of the players mentioned is coming to the capital.

–Nichols believes the Sens need a leftwinger and pitches for Patrik Elias, who fits the kind of past-his-prime talent Murray has managed to land in the past.

-Speaking of free agents, any Sens fans who are expecting Ottawa to be a successful player on the free agent market needs to reconsider.  Murray nibbled at inexpensive fill-ins this season and that’s prior to the full development/flood of top-end prospects entering the organisation.  The Sens might add an inexpensive veteran blueliner or forward this off-season, or they may sit tight and do nothing.

-Here’s my look at the Sens draft post-lockout draft success (05-08).

-Here’s my look at The Hockey Writers various draft pieces.

–David Johnson offers some words on the statistical analysis wars that go on in assessing player-talent in the NHL.  I can’t condense his arguments sensibly (I suggest you read it yourself), but I will quote his conclusion:

The possession method primarily provides value when dealing with small sample sizes as it will reduce small sample size and random variance issues. Shot differential metrics are inherently a flawed metric though because shot differential isn’t the end goal of the player (goal differential is what matters in the win/loss column) and shot quality and ability to drive/suppress shooting percentages exists and are real. There is nothing wrong with using possession metrics as an evaluation tool so long as we are aware of this limitation just as there is nothing wrong with using goal based metrics as an evaluation tool so long as we are aware of its sample size, randomness and uncertainty limitations. Neither are perfect, both have their uses, both have their limitations and in reality both should be considered in any player evaluation.

I agree with Johnson that one method does not dismiss the other when making assessments.

-A number of European free agents have been signed over the last month or two and the number may be fairly high this year with the cap shrinking.  Here’s the current list of signees: Antti Raanta (Chicago), Reto Berra (Calgary), Ilari Melart (Columbus), Anton Belov (Edmonton), Michael Raffl (Philadelphia), and Petter Emanuelsson (San Jose).

-The Penguins threw my prediction for a loop by re-signing Dan Bylsma.  To my mind this puts Ray Shero on the firing line if things don’t work out, although it’s worth keeping in mind a new contract doesn’t guarantee much for a head coach.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 12, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-The Sens traded Sergei Gonchar to the Dallas Stars for a conditional 6th round pick; the Stars subsequently signed Gonchar to a two-year deal.  I applaud the Sens for getting something for the veteran (Scott Cullen agrees; they essentially retrieve the pick they wasted on Matt Kassian, albeit it’s a 2013 they acquired versus a 2014 they surrendered) and the move fits with my assumption that Gonchar was never part of Ottawa’s plans going forward.

–Chris Lund looks at the Sens shooting percentage this season and breaks down the numbers.  He concludes that the Sens were with the NHL pack when it came to the quality of the opportunities, but (in his estimation) simply suffered from bad luck to finish at the bottom of the scoring efficiency barrel.  He reminds us that this season is a small sample size and thus hard to judge from (which is entirely sensible).

-Speaking of shots, Corey Sznajder Tweets zone-entry plus shot-generation stats for the Sens in the Montreal series, which illustrates how effective Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson, Milan Michalek, and Erik Condra were in that regard.

–Mark Parisi wonders about Bryan Murray’s future.  The beginning of the article describes what lead to the rebuild and goes over some of the moves Murray made (for a full overview of Murray’s time as Sens GM go here).  He wonders whether Tim Murray or Pierre Dorion would take over if Bryan decides that (at age seventy) it’s time to retire or move to a less stressful position.  My feeling has long been that Tim will take over for his uncle when the time comes, but I agree with Mark that at this stage Bryan can punch his own ticket whenever he feels like it.

-Here’s my look at Red Line Report’s NHL draft guide.

-Here’s my comparison of the various NHL draft guides.

–Travis Yost documents the inconsistency of the Brendan Shanahan-fronted NHL disciplinary decisions.  I’m not sure what more can be said about the NHL’s inability (or unwillingness) to police itself, but Travis does a nice job looking at the face of the current era.

-The conference finals were both short series’ this season, with the Bruins bouncing the Penguins in four straight while Chicago knocked off the defending cup champs in five.  I was happy with both results and the NHL will be pleased in having two big markets in the finals.  Hopefully the final will be more contested than it was last year.  I prefer the Blackhawks style of play over Boston’s, but otherwise have no strong feeling either way for who I want to win.  Incidentally, I wonder where writers who thought Jonathan Quick was on his way to another Conn Smythe will jump too now that the Kings have been eliminated.

-The debate about whether Penguins coach Dan Bylsma should be fired or not doesn’t seem like a difficult call to me.  Other than yanking the overrated Marc-Andre Fleury, he didn’t make a lot of coaching adjustments during their playoff run.  The Penguins simply overwhelmed the Islanders and Sens with talent, something they were unable to do against the defence-first Bruins.  He has to pay the price, otherwise the blame moves upstairs to the GM.

–Ken Campbell reminds us that officiating continues to be awful in the playoffs.  As much as I agree and sympathise with Campbell, I can’t remember a single time where the league has tried to officiate the playoffs with something resembling regular season form (maybe some language to that effect in Carolina’s cup run, but otherwise the NHL embraces the chaos).

-Corey Pronman has posted his 2013 NHL draft rankings and here’s his top-30 (keep in mind Pronman takes a dim view of goaltenders and defensemen at the draft–he explains his reasons if you click on his introduction link; I gave my opinion of his rating model last year):

1. Jonathan Drouin, Left Wing, Halifax-QMJHL
2. Nathan MacKinnon, Center, Halifax-QMJHL
3. Seth Jones, Defense, Portland-WHL
4. Valeri Nichushkin, Right Wing, Traktor-KHL
5. Aleksander Barkov, Center, Tappara-SM-Liiga
6. Elias Lindholm, Center, Brynas-SEL
7. Sean Monahan, Center, Ottawa-OHL
8. Rasmus Ristolainen, Defense, TPS-SM-Liiga
9. Max Domi, Center, London-OHL
10. Hunter Shinkaruk, Center, Medicine Hat-WHL
11. Darnell Nurse, Defense, Sault Ste. Marie-OHL
12. Ryan Pulock, Defense, Brandon-WHL
13. Andre Burakowsky, Left Wing, Malmo-Allsvenskan
14. Bo Horvat, Center, London-OHL
15. Alexander Wennberg, Center, Djurgardens-Allsvenskan
16. Nikita Zadorov, Defense, London-OHL
17. Pavel Buchnevich, Left Wing, Severstal-KHL
18. Adam Erne, Left Wing, Quebec-QMJHL
19. Valentin Zykov, Right Wing, Baie-Comeau-QMJHL
20. Josh Morrissey, Defense, Prince Albert-WHL
21. Robert Hagg, Defense, MODO-SEL
22. Anthony Mantha, Left Wing, Val-d’Or-QMJHL
23. Madison Bowey, Defense, Kelowna-WHL
24. Artturi Lehkonen, Left Wing, KalPa-SM-Liiga
25. J.T. Compher, Center, USA Under-18-USHL
26. Mirco Mueller, Defense, Everett-WHL
27. Jacob De La Rose, Left Wing, Leksands-Allsvenskan
28. Steven Santini, Defense, USA Under-18-USHL
29. Curtis Lazar, Center, Edmonton-WHL
30. Shea Theodore, Defense, Seattle-WHL

His list this year isn’t as unorthodox as 2012’s with Pavel Buchnevich as the only player Pronman picks in the first round that isn’t echoed elsewhere.  I didn’t specifically break down his predictive success in 2012 as I didn’t use him as a source (he also only listed 125 players in 2012, unlike the 250 this year), but in terms of player X at position X he was 3/30 which was actually good for last year (only Bob McKenzie did better).

-In non-hockey news, I have no idea what Ottawa’s CFL franchise was thinking in picking the name “Redblacks” for the franchise–the only thing it brings to mind for me is a racial slur, but even if that doesn’t resonate with others it’s neither catchy nor iconic.  Hopefully the team will be better than the name.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 10, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Nichols transcribes Pierre Dorion’s interview on The Team and includes his thoughts.  These echo Dorion’s comments from last year, but a few things stuck out to me.  Talking about how they try to break players from giving just pat answers:

Well, maybe it’ll be a player whose work ethic was questionable and we’ll ask him why his work ethic isn’t really good. And we’ll give specific dates – on specific dates, ‘On this date and this date, we had this scouts here and he questioned why was that? What were you trying to do?’ Or, if it’s someone that’s a scorer that tells us that he’s scored and we’ve seen him 10 times, and he tells us we haven’t seen him score, ‘how come against these teams he didn’t score?’ – a little bit something along those lines.

How they approach the draft:

You never know what could happen – we could move up or we could move down, we’ve done that in the past. I’ve been doing this for quite a long time now, almost 20 years in the NHL, I have a pretty good idea at seventeen, if you give us a range of five or six players, we have a good idea what we’re doing. But, we always have surprises. I think as you mentioned last year, we had Cody Ceci in our top five and we ended up having him at fifteen. Bryan and Tim (Murray) have told me from day one, prepare for any scenario – whether it’s picking one, which I think maybe is not realistic, or picking five or picking whatever, as a group of scouts, we’re always prepared for any scenario. Even though sometimes it doesn’t matter, sometimes we’ll argue… this year we argued on five or six on our list because you never know what can happen and we want to be prepared for it.

His thoughts on mock drafts and trying to guess who other teams will pick:

I think we just do our own homework. I think mock drafts are great for fans and I think it’s great to see what your respective team might get (at their draft spot) but until the draft happens and the first sixteen players are taken, I don’t think the Ottawa Senators are really worried about what other teams are going to do. We have got to be good at what we do. We do do our homework. We have an idea of what players are going to go where through enough of our contacts, so we have a pretty good idea of what’s going on, but we might have a surprise. From that point of view, we might just wait for the first sixteen and then make our selection.

When asked to name the biggest surprises in terms of player development Dorion didn’t mention any surprising names, talking about Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Patrick Wiercioch, Eric Gryba, Mika Zibanejad, and Robin Lehner.

–Dmitry Chesnokov reports that Sergei Gonchar is close to signing a KHL deal, but I believe this is largely posturing (Tavis Yost does too).  Everyone knows he could go make a pile of money playing in Russia, but clearly his goal is to play in the NHL.

-Here’s my look at the Senators roster decisions.

-Here are my reviews of McKeen’s and Hockey Prospects‘ 2013 NHL draft guides.

–Andy McDonald was forced to announce his retirement due to post-concussion issues.  The NHL continues to not take the issue seriously and I expect that (like the NFL) legal action will ultimately be necessary before the league truly removes head shots (and perhaps fighting) from the game.

–Stu Hackel takes a look at Pittsburgh’s struggles against Boston in the playoffs and believes a lack of discipline is a big part of the problem–it’s a characteristic of the Crosby era and clearly puts the Penguins on tilt.

-For those who remember my look at European free agents, one of the players from the previous year (Simon Moser) has been invited to Nashville’s training camp in the fall.  I’ll do a thorough review of my speculation after free agent madness is over.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 7, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

With the season over it’s time to look at Ottawa’s roster decisions this off-season.  I believe most of the decisions are straightforward, but I’ll list the full contract roster and go through all the RFA’s and UFA’s and then speculate on possible trade bait (next year’s rookies are marked in italics; players I expect to be re-signed are in green and those let go/may be traded are in red):

NHL
Forwards (15)
Daniel Alfredsson (UFA)
Peter Regin (UFA)
Guillaume Latendresse (UFA)
Erik Condra (RFA)
Jason Spezza
Milan Michalek
Kyle Turris
Chris Neil
Zack Smith
Mika Zibanejad
Cory Conacher
Jakob Silfverberg
Colin Greening
Jim O’Brien
Matt Kassian
Defensemen (9)
Sergei Gonchar (UFA)
Andre Benoit (UFA)
Mike Lundin (UFA)
Patrick Wiercioch (RFA)
Erik Karlsson
Chris Phillips
Marc Methot
Jared Cowen
Eric Gryba
Goaltenders (2)
Craig Anderson
Robin Lehner

AHL/ECHL
Forwards (18)
Hugh Jessiman (UFA)
Mike Hoffman (RFA)
Stephane Da Costa (RFA)
Corey Cowick (RFA)
David Dziurzynski (RFA)
Louie Caporusso (RFA)
Buddy Robinson
Stefan Noesen
Matt Puempel
Cole Schneider
Wacey Hamilton
Shane Prince
Mark Stone
Andre Petersson
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jakub Culek
Derek Grant
Darren Kramer
Defensemen (8)
Mark Borowiecki (RFA)
Cody Ceci
Ben Blood
Troy Rutkowski
Fredrik Claesson
Michael Sdao
Tyler Eckford
Chris Wideman
Goaltenders (2)
Nathan Lawson (UFA)
Andrew Hammond

The easy decisions are letting Regin, Latendresse (the decision has already been made), Lundin, Jessiman, and Caporusso walk (Capgeek has the latter with another year on his deal, but that does not fit their prior listing for him–I don’t know if they were wrong before or are wrong now, but I think it’s the latter).  I don’t expect Lawson to stay–not that the Sens wouldn’t want a solid minor league goalie, but veteran goaltenders in the AHL rarely stay in one place–always looking for a better deal/opportunity.  Benoit might be let go if he insists on a one-way deal.  Da Costa may have run out of rope with the organisation, although he’s young enough that they may be able to trade him.  I believe Gonchar will depart for wherever he can land a two-year deal (I don’t think the Sens will offer him one).  The other UFA’s and RFA’s I expect to stay.

Of the signed players, there’s no need to keep Kassian, but it seems as though the organisation likes him so he may stay.  O’Brien appears to be on the way out the door and if he’s traded I’d expect a draft pick in return.  Hamilton hasn’t impressed in his first two seasons with Binghamton, but doesn’t have any trade value so he may stick around.  There’s going to be a big inject of talent in Binghamton with the arrival of three first round picks (Noesen, Pumpel, and Ceci), but they should easily slip into top positions abandoned by the Sens Swedes once the current NHL season commenced.  I haven’t listed Pageau as part of the NHL roster because I don’t think he’s guaranteed a spot–he’ll have to earn it in training camp.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 6, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

-The Sens rookie tournament will take place in London this year (playing with the Leafs, Penguins, and Blackhawks).

-Sens prospects Chris Driedger and Francois Brassard were both invited to Hockey Canada’s Program of Excellence goaltending camp.

–Nichols indulges in Don Brennan’s speculation that the Sens should pursue Bryan Bickell in free agency, but quickly concludes he’s essentially Colin Greening and there’s not much sense in paying more for a player you already have.  I don’t see the point in the move either–the Sens aren’t in need of grinding forwards.

–Nichols also peaks behind ESPN’s pay wall to look at Corey Pronman’s rising and falling prospects.  Cody Ceci is listed as falling:

Ceci was actually named an OHL second-team All-Star and ranked second among OHL defensemen in scoring. Even with that in mind, scouts I talked to came away with mixed feelings about Ceci‘s play this season. While his offensive ability is not at all in question, his play at the other end of the rink left some concerns. “His defense looked very average, if not bad,” one scout said. The defensive-end struggles were more evident during the first half of the OHL season, which may not have coincidentally led to a lack of an invite to Canada’s world juniors camp in his last season of U-20 eligibility. After being dealt from Ottawa to Owen Sound, Ceci‘s play picked up in the 27 games he played with Owen. He’s a dynamic skater who moves the puck well, with a good shot. As he enters his first pro season, it will be interesting to monitor how Ottawa’s staff works with him on his defensive issues.

But there’s some context that Nichols provides to belay that concern.  On the flipside, Pronman see’s Robin Lehner as rising (I’m not sure how he’d be seen any other way):

For years Lehner has been touted as a gifted goaltender but had yet to put it all together in a full season in North America. It all came together during the 2012-13 campaign. Lehner has been a brick wall in the AHL and during brief appearances in the NHL. He’s a big (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) goaltender with the athletic tools of an agile goalie half his size. He recovers quickly, generates a lot of power from his feet and shows good puck-tracking skills. Some small nitpicks with Lehner may be he’s not perfectly refined yet and could learn to be a little more technical. But when you’re stopping 93-94 percent of shots faced, it doesn’t seem to be that much of an issue.

-Sens prospect Jordan Fransoo (7-186/11) was not signed and has become a free agent.  Fransoo never really progressed, so the move comes as no surprise.  Speaking of prospects who are now free agents, although there’s still no official word, I have to assume Bryce Aneloski (7-196/10) is also not in the Sens plans.

–Travis Yost wonders if the Sens will move Mika Zibanejad to the wing given their current situation at center and it’s certainly a possibility for next season.  I agree with Travis that ultimately Zibanejad himself may force the Sens to make space for him if he proves a better pivot than a winger.

–Adnan thinks the Sens would like to keep Sergei Gonchar, but only on a one-year deal.  I don’t see him staying–if Ottawa won’t give him two years, someone else will.

–Ryan Classic looks at Ottawa’s UFA’s and makes sensible guesses except for Mike Lundin (who should be in the “definitely won’t be re-signed” category), Nathan Lawson (veteran AHL-goalies generally don’t stick around in organisations), and Andre Benoit (who, if he insists on a one-way deal, may not be kept).

-Here’s my look back at the Sens regular season.

-Here’s my review of Future Considerations 2013 NHL draft guide.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 3, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Ottawa Senators finished 14th in the lockout-shortened NHL, with a record of 25-17-6 for 56 points; this represents a pro-rated 3-point (and 1 win) improvement over last season (when they were 16th in the league).  The team was 26th in scoring (dropping from 5th last year), which made them the lowest scoring team in the playoffs.  They were 4th in goals against (up from 24th last season), tied for 10th in goal differential (up from 14th), tied for 20th on the powerplay (down from 11th), had the league’s best penalty killing percentage (up from 20th), were 15th in 5-on-5 goals for/against (down from 11th), first in shots per game (up from 5th), 23rd in shots allowed per game (up from 29th), and 21st in faceoffs (down from 16th).  This was all accomplished with the 25th lowest payroll in the NHL (lower payrolls that made the playoffs: the Islanders (28th) and the Blues (29th)).

Back in January I made my prediction that the Sens would finish 9th and miss the playoffs, likely due to injury problems.  I was correct about the injuries, but not the team’s performance.  As in the previous season, the Sens initial lineup changed significantly throughout the season, this time due to injuries.  Unexpected players became regulars (Eric Gryba and Andre Benoit), while a number of rookies played their first NHL games (the aforementioned Gryba along with Jean-Gabriel Pageau, David Dziurzynski, and Derek Grant).  Ottawa made two trades, sending pending RFA Ben Bishop to Tampa for Cory Conacher, and giving up a 2014 6th round pick for pugilist Matt Kassian (they lost the popular but little-used Kaspars Daugavins via waivers).  None of the deals made much impact, which fits in with Bryan Murray’s mediocre trade track record in Ottawa.  Turris lead the team with a meagre 29 points; Wiercioch, Silfverberg, and Zibanejad were a team best +9, while Smith was a team worst -9.

Throughout the season I posted ten-game segments looking at how the Sens performed, so here’s a brief recap of the season that was:
The first ten games the Sens went 6-3-1 and were lead by Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson, and Milan Michalek; Craig Anderson put up ridiculous numbers, Jason Spezza was lost for the rest of the regular season, and the Mark Borowiecki experiment came and went
The next segment saw the Sens again go 6-3-1, with Colin Greening and Daniel Alfredsson leading the way with a meagre 5-points each; Craig Anderson continued to be excellent until he was injured and then Ben Bishop picked up the ball; Ottawa lost Karlsson, Michalek, the aforementioned Anderson, and the unproductive Peter Regin to injury; this year’s Stephane Da Costa experiment ended, while Gryba and Dziurzynski were added to the lineup
The next segment the Sens went 4-2-4 and were lead by Sergei Gonchar (his best stretch of games as a Sen) and Patrick Wiercioch; Robin Lehner had phenomenal numbers despite losing four games in extra time/shootouts, Marc Methot was somehow -7; Kassian was added to the lineup via trade, while Mark Stone was called up
The next segment saw the Sens go 4-6-0, lead by Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, and Methot; Anderson returned, Bishop was dealt (so Conacher was added) and Daugavins waived, Stone was sent down while Mike Hoffman and Pageau were called up
The final segment the Sens went 5-3-0 and were lead by Turris and Gonchar; Karlsson and Michalek returned to the lineup, Chris Neil was a team worst -4

Here’s a look at how the players performed throughout the season with my analysis and a grade for each player (A=outstanding season, B=above expectations, C=expectations met, D=below expectations, F=well below expectations), for players who played in the minors or other organisations, I’m only looking at how they did with Ottawa (TOI=time on ice, FO%=faceoff percentage, INJ=games missed due to injury, SCR=scratched):

Kyle Turris 48-12-17-29 +6 TOI 19:38 FO% 49.0 Grade C
In the absence of Jason Spezza, Turris demonstrated two things: he isn’t a first line center, but his production isn’t hurt by facing an opposing team’s top checkers.  We learned that Turris is a legitimate NHL-caliber 2nd-line center, but doesn’t have the juice to be more than that.

Sergei Gonchar 45-3-24-27 +4 TOI 23:59 INJ 3 Grade B
In the absence of Karlsson the 39-year old was able to carry enough weight for the team to make the playoffs.  His legs aren’t once what they were and he doesn’t have it in him to shut down the NHL’s elite, but he did more than was expected and the season is a nice send-off for the veteran who I do not expect to be re-signed by Ottawa.

Daniel Alfredsson 47-10-16-26 +1 TOI 19:20 INJ 1 Grade C
It was an unremarkable regular season for the captain, who remains an effective top-six forward, but simply can’t do it all on his own anymore.  While he raised his game to another level in the playoffs and has the juice to play another season of two, he needs people around him to step in and take over some of his offensive production.

Mika Zibanejad 42-7-13-20 +9 TOI 13:33 FO% 46.4 SCR 1 Grade B
Despite a mediocre debut in the AHL, Zibanejad was more productive at the NHL level, only looking overwhelmed when the Sens got into the playoffs.  He has defensive struggles and needs to improve on faceoffs, but as a 2o-year old there’s a lot more to look forward too.

Jakob Silfverberg 48-10-9-19 +9 TOI 16:13 Grade C
He was able to dominate in Binghamton and was close to a pro-rated 20-goal pace in his NHL rookie season.  Solid defensively, if he can add a little quickness he’ll be more productive at this level.

Colin Greening 47-8-11-19 +5 TOI 14:43 SCR 1 Grade C
Responded well after an early season benching.  He can’t produce consistently, but he’s an effective player who is good up and down the lineup.

Patrick Wiercioch 42-5-14-19 +9 TOI 15:41 SCR 6 Grade B
Finally got over the hump in the AHL and showed flashes of the same in the NHL.  Still lacks consistency and could use a little more strength, but there was a lot to like about his first season as a full-time NHLer.

Zack Smith 48-4-11-15 -9 TOI 15:08 Grade D
Despite having the full support of the coaching staff it was not a great year for Smith, who struggled at times on both sides of the puck.  I see it as an off-year rather than a trend.

Chris Phillips 48-5-9-14 -5 TOI 21:02 Grade C
The big rig continues to truck along; when he’s playing protected minutes on the third-pairing he’s very effective, but he when that changes he starts to break down.  I have no idea why he keeps appearing on the Sens powerplay.

Milan Michalek 23-4-10-14 +8 TOI 18:11 INJ 25 Grade D
This season represents what we’ve come to expect from the big Czech winger–missing huge parts of the season because of injury.  Even if healthy I thought there was no chance for him to score like he did in his career season last year.  Can he come back and be productive after yet more surgery?  Time will tell, but you do have to wonder when the penny will drop and his career gets derailed by his body.

Erik Karlsson 17-6-8-14 +8 TOI 27:09 INJ 31 Grade B
He came back too soon from injury, but when healthy he was all-world and would have challenged for the Norris trophy.  The question that remains is what shape will he be in when the season starts?

Chris Neil 48-4-8-12 Even TOI 13:51 Grade C
More of the same from the Sens tough winger; his goal-scoring was a bit low, but offence isn’t really what the team is looking for from him.

Erik Condra 48-4-8-12 +3 TOI 13:10 Grade C
One of the smartest players on the team, I can’t help but wonder how productive he’d be if he had more finish around the net.  A useful player who helps drive puck possession, expect more of the same next season.

Marc Methot 47-2-9-11 +2 TOI 22:13 INJ 1 Grade B
I didn’t know what to expect from the big blueliner when Murray traded for him last summer, but he was better than I expected.  He was excellent when paired with Karlsson and continued to be excellent without him.

Andre Benoit 33-3-7-10 -3 TOI 16:25 SCR 15 Grade B
I’m not sure that Benoit has established himself as an NHLer, but he did a good job filling in while the Sens were short on the blueline.  It’s a little ominous for his future that he was scratched down the stretch run, but there will always be work somewhere for him as long as he stays healthy.

Guillaume Latendresse 27-6-4-10 -2 TOI 14:48 INJ 19 SCR 2 Grade D
My expectations weren’t high for the plodding winger and he managed to slip even under those.  He has good hands, but can’t keep up with the pace and simply doesn’t use his size enough to be truly effective.  As expected, injury cost him a good chunk of the season.

Eric Gryba 33-2-4-6 -3 TOI 20:16 SCR 1 Grade B
Long touted by the organisation as a good depth player, he got more than just a look this year beating out Borowiecki as a full time player on the team.  There were a lot of struggles for him, but Paul MacLean gave him tough minutes which is a sign he believes Gryba can handle it.  One wonders where he fits in with the Sens plans next season.

Jim O’Brien 29-5-1-6 -2 TOI 11:25 FO% 45.7 INJ 4 SCR 15 Grade D
After a hot start O’Brien quickly slipped down the depth chart until he was an afterthought in the pressbox.  No one seems sure what it is that O’Brien did to lose his spot on the roster, but the future is bleak for him going forward.

Jason Spezza 5-2-3-5 +3 TOI 19:10 FO% 57.1 INJ 43 Grade incomplete
Looked dynamic to start the season, but yet another back injury derailed his season.

Cory Conacher 12-2-3-5 +6 TOI 12:50 Grade C
After a hot start with the Lightning the diminutive forward continued mediocre play with the Sens.  There’s a lot to like about his tenacity, but he needs to work on his play without the puck.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau 9-2-2-4 +3 TOI 11:29 FO% 48.8 Grade incomplete
A sensation in the playoffs there was a lot to like about the undersized rookie in his brief debut.  Was it all a flash in the pan?  Can he continue that level of play next season?  He’ll get the opportunity, but time will tell.

Kaspars Daugavins 19-1-2-3 -7 TOI 11:25 SCR 12 Grade F
A popular player, it was not a great season for Daugavins who earned a spot on the bench and then on the waiver wire.  I’m not convinced he’ll ever be an NHL regular, although his positive attitude may see him as a 13th forward for awhile.

Peter Regin 27-0-3-3 -4 TOI 11:31 FO% 43.8 INJ 7 SCR 14 Grade F
I like the Dane, but clearly the injuries have taken too much away from his play for him to be a useful NHL forward.  The offense is gone and he’s too fragile to grind it out.  I expect him to be in Europe next season.

David Dziurzynski 12-2-0-2 -1 TOI 12:32 INJ 6 Grade incomplete
His brief debut included two surprises: goals (he doesn’t produce much in the AHL) and being knocked out in his first NHL fight.  I don’t know that Dizzy has enough talent to ever be an NHL regular, but he played well in his brief time in the league.

Stephane Da Costa 9-1-1-2 -3 TOI 11:51 FO% 60.9 Grade incomplete
This might have been the end of the line for Da Costa who seems to be at the same level that he was last season and is getting surpassed by other players in the organisation.  There’s talent there, but conditioning and defensive play remain his issues.

Mike Lundin 11-0-1-1 -2 TOI 15:30 INJ 23 SCR 14 Grade F
It was an ugly year for the free agent signee, who did absolutely nothing to demonstrate he can still play in the league.

Matt Kassian 15-1-0-1 Even TOI 6:22 SCR 6 Grade incomplete
What can you say about a one-dimensional enforcer?  He dropped the gloves a few times.

Jared Cowen 7-1-0-1 +1 TOI 20:17 INJ 41 Grade incomplete
A wasted year for the big blueliner, who wasn’t himself when he returned from injury.  Watch for him to bounce back next season.

Derek Grant 5-0-0-0 -1 TOI 8:39 FO% 54.8 SCR 1 Grade incomplete
Did not look ready for the big time in his limited debut, but I can see what the Sens are hoping from him (a checking third line center who can score).

Mark Borowiecki 6-0-0-0 TOI 12:59 SCR 4 Grade incomplete
The stage was set for the Borocop to be an NHL regular this year, but instead he lost his roster spot to Gryba.  He has a lot of great intangibles and it will be interesting to see how he does in training camp in the fall.

Mike Hoffman 3-0-0-0 -1 TOI 12:19 INJ 12 Grade incomplete
The idea of Hoffman as a second line forward makes no sense to me, but there might be space for him as a third line player.  He just doesn’t have enough on his resume to be sure, but he has played long enough in the AHL to demonstrate he doesn’t produce enough at that level to score a lot in the NHL.

Mark Stone 4-0-0-0 -1 TOI 10:00 Grade incomplete
Had an up and down year in Binghamton complicated by injury; was decent in limited time with Ottawa, but didn’t show enough of his hands to guarantee himself a spot next season.

Craig Anderson 12-9-5 1.69 .941 INJ 12 Grade A
It was a great season for Andy; fantastic until he was injured.  He was a huge part of the team making the playoffs, his collapse against the Penguins notwithstanding.

Robin Lehner 5-3-4 2.20 .936 Grade B
He’s finally made it as a full time player as the team got rid of Bishop.  There was never any question about his talent, just his conditioning and his mental toughness.  He’ll push Anderson next season and is great security in case of injury.

Ben Bishop 8-5-0 2.45 .922 Grade C
Couldn’t out shine Lehner in the AHL and wasn’t able to do so in the NHL either.  I’m not sure he’s consistent enough to be a starting goaltender, but he may get that chance in Tampa.

The season was a success not just because of the modest gains in the standings (and subsequent playoff run), but because of Ottawa’s resilience in the face of key injuries.  Besides the goaltenders no player truly stood out with an especially strong year, but the sum of the whole proved greater than the parts.  There’s a lot to absorb and a number of conclusions to be made (a full discussion of changes for next season is forthcoming).  Various peripheral pieces of the team played their way off it (some during the season, others now in the off-season), while others have staked their place in the roster going forward.  Looking ahead the Sens will continue to need improvement from within, especially when it comes to scoring.  It was an entertaining year and I think fans are safe in expecting more of them in the future.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 3, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

-It’s Sens post-mortem time across the blogosphere and Nichols weighs in, providing brilliant context to the season that was which includes this gem:

The fact that management willingly parlayed an asset to acquire Matt Kassian, the realization that this was a bit of a lost season dawned on many of us

After going through all the positives he poses an obvious question:

You have to wonder whether the Senators’ goaltending may have masked the deficiencies this team had

Clearly they did and the open question Nichols’ leaves us with is whether there will be regression or not.  The positive is that the organisation feels confident in both their goaltenders, so if one falters they have a Plan B.  Nichols then wonders if the Sens are truly a contender going into next season:

The Senators are short on elite talent and problematically, each of its best offensive forwards are entering the final years of their respective deals and given their age and health issues, with the exception of Daniel Alfredsson, the  in Ottawa’s best interests to retain Milan Michalek or Jason Spezza.  Compounding the problem is that there is no one internally who can replace an Alfie, a Spezza or even a Michalek. Hell, they probably will have a difficult time replacing Gonchar’s minutes should the veteran defenceman find a better fit (read: one who gives him the money and term he’s looking for) on the free agent market.  In a nutshell, the Senators are left with two options: 1) they can move assets for an already established NHL player who can conceivably help this team for years to come; or 2) they can move a number of pieces in an effort to move up in the draft.

I partially agree with him in the context of next season.  Of the players mentioned Spezza‘s production simply can’t be replaced outside the draft or a monumental trade, while I think Michalek and Gonchar are more easily replaced (the former is rarely healthy and outside of last season his production wasn’t remarkable; I anticipate Patrick Wiercioch will provide a good chunk of offense produced by a declining Gonchar).  Can/should the Sens try to move up in the draft or make a deal?  I’m just not sure the team gets better exchanging one needed asset to acquire another–what do they have in abundance that they can afford to give up?

It’s a great article and I highly recommend it (although Nichols needs to figure out how to keep the ads on his site from blocking the text or his articles).

-Travis Yost examines a pair of playoff performances (here and here), beginning by looking at how much Alfredsson excelled in the Sens loss to Pittsburgh and how awful Jared Cowen was in the playoffs overall.  Yost wonders if Cowen will be ready for top-four duty next season, but admits there’s no other option as things stand.  If he’s healthy I think he’ll be fine, although a lot depends on who he is paired with.

–Bryan Murray believes the Sens need a scorer in their prime, but it’s difficult to see how they could land such a player (free agency is not remotely promising).

-It doesn’t seem like news, but Ottawa has told Guillaume Latendresse that he won’t be back next season.  Unable to produce enough, the painfully slow Latendresse will be looking for a new team via free agency.

–Don Brennan offers his grades for the season and doesn’t offer any particularly egregious assessments (his grade for Patrick Wierioch is a little low and Chris Neil is too high, but given his normal penchant for outright ridiculousness it’s not bad).

-Here’s my look at the ISS Draft Guide.

–Allan Maki talks about the NHL’s relief that Stephen Walkom’s embarrassing performance can be ignored since Chicago ultimately won their game.  This isn’t Walkom’s first horror show and runs with how consistently awful NHL officiating has been (despite empty apologetics from Mark Spector).

–Brian Cazeneuve offers a retrospective on John Tortorella’s time as head coach of the Rangers.  There’s not much love in the media for Tortorella, but for entertainment’s sake I’d love to see him back with TSN.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 30, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Jason Spezza returned to playoff action with a torn meniscus and will have surgery to repair it in the off-season.

–Jakob Silfverberg talked about what he wanted to improve for next season:

I want to score more goals, I guess. You’ve got to take (the puck) to the net, you’ve got to drive the net hard and that’s one thing I’m trying to learn every day. You’ve got to be able to be tough (at the) net and go through some guys and be harder around the net.  You’ve got to go faster, they’re so quick. That’s where we want to be in a couple of years and that’s where I want to be in a couple of years, too.

–Mark Parisi comes out swinging in his final Ups & Downs for the final week that was, criticising Craig Anderson after the fact, but even in the criticism he tries to offer excuses.  I don’t know why the blogging community struggles so much with pointing out that Anderson wasn’t good against the Penguins–it doesn’t make him a bad goaltender, it just means he was in the series (and the regular season).  The fact that Andy himself was offering up excuses bothers me a lot more than his performance (has any other Ottawa goaltender gotten away with that?).  Mark’s other arrows are all over the place and I’m not going to go through them all.

–Dave Young makes the assumption that because an injury-rattled Sens team couldn’t score in the playoffs against Pittsburgh they need scoring depth (Ken Warren makes the same assumption).  Do they?  I really don’t know–the full team only played five games together and that’s not enough time to mean anything.  Every team could use more goal scorers, but Ottawa won’t land any prime fish in free agency (Warren is smoking something to think the Sens could land David Clarkson) so they are going to have to look within for goals.

-The WTYKY lads got together for a round table of death (no one died) to discuss the season that was for Ottawa.  The fellahs are positive about things going forward.  They debated keeping Sergei Gonchar, but I agree with James that it’s a no-brainer that they let him walk.  James pats himself on the back for predicting Jean-Gabriel Pageau to break out, but his argument that this is definitely different from Bobby Butler, Peter Regin, or the cast of thousands who have looked good over a short period of time isn’t convincing.  I think Pageau will remain a useful player, but the sample size is too small to be certain.

–Jeremy Milks offers his roster decisions (let’s recall that Jeremy thought Zenon Konopka and Matt Carkner needed to be retained last season) and decides Jim O’Brien, Guillaume Latendresse, Peter Regin, and Mike Lundin are likely gone (agreed), while (surprise!) he thinks Matt Kassian should be retained.  He’s unsure about Sergei Gonchar (my thoughts above) and Andre Benoit, but with Benoit wanting a one-way deal I suspect he is gone as well.

-Speaking of Benoit, he believes he has proven he’s an everyday NHL player.  That may be true, but I don’t think it will be with the Sens.

–Bryce Aneloski‘s Allen Americans won the President’s Cup (the CHL championship), although he never suited up after the first round.

–Jordan Fransoo (along with Aneloski) are on the clock for their rights to be reliquished by the Sens.

-ISS has released its latest 2013 draft rankings (for their previous list go here):

Almost no positions changed except at the very top.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 28, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-The Senators season ended with a thud as they lost 6-2 to Pittsburgh in a game that wasn’t close.  Craig Anderson continued to be ordinary against the Penguins (he made 27 saves) and the Sens simply had no answer to the offensive barrage (Milan Michalek and Kyle Turris scored the final goals of the playoffs for Ottawa).  The inclusion of Cory Conacher in the lineup made no discernible difference, although he played more than Mika Zibanejad who saw a meagre 8:14 of ice time.  Here’s the boxscore; Scott had the scoring chances 12/18.

–Paul MacLean reflects on the loss:

It’s a hard lesson to swallow, these last two games. It’s real tough for our goaltender, our team and our coaching staff and our organization to get beat like we did in the last two games, but one thing about our group is adversity really tends to be something (we learn from). We will take good things out of this and it will make us better. (The Penguins) never stepped off the pedal one time and that’s what it takes.

I think it’s indicative that MacLean mentioned the goaltender first.  Anderson deserved the praise he got this season, but he was not good against the Penguins in either the regular or post-season.  Anderson could not accept that he didn’t perform well however:

At the end of the day, if you lose the game 3-2 or 6-2, it doesn’t matter, you still lose. Obviously, statistics show a little bit, they don’t show the whole truth. If you break down the scoring chances and break down the quality of scoring chances, that’s what tells the story. Anybody that’s watching the game and knows anything about hockey, they’ll take the statistics and throw them out the window, because that’s just kind of the way things are.

There’s a pretty big difference in losing 3-2 or 6-2 and Andy shouldn’t hang his hat on losing being okay because the other team had a lot of scoring chances.  I’m not a fan of players making excuses.

-Prior to the series I predicted the Sens would lose in five and none of the trends of the match-up explored in the regular season changed in the post-season.  Anderson continued to be average (The Raaymaker offers up excuses for Andy, but a near-Vezina winning goaltender puts up better numbers than that), the Penguins continued to get the lion’s share of the powerplays, and the Sens continued to give up the first goal and were unable to keep up offensively.  An Ottawa loss is what most saw in the tea leaves prior to the series (other than Senschirp who thought Ottawa had the edge in all categories); the Penguins are locked and loaded and Ottawa just didn’t have the horses to run with them.

-Speaking of Raaymaker (link above), he gives up his random Milan Michalek criticism in the end–with Michalek scoring in back-to-back games it becomes hard to maintain the illusion he’s playing poorly.  He’s correct in criticising Jared Cowen‘s performance, but the Gonchar criticism doesn’t make much sense.

–Jared Crozier, who brought up the idea of biased officiating in the playoffs, now dismisses it out of hand (25/18 was the powerplay split by the end–the Pens averaged five powerplays a game, just like in the regular season against Ottawa).  Crozier thought that game two was the breaking point for Ottawa because the Penguins “got” to Anderson.  Given that Pittsburgh “got” to Anderson in the regular season I don’t really see his point (they also scored 4 in the first game against him too).

-Speaking of Crozier, he looks forward to next season and puts forward the following:

With Sergei Gonchar a pending UFA, there will be a hole in the top 4.  After Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, and Jared Cowen, there is question marks.  Patrick Wiercioch should have been the 4th, but he has failed to gain the trust of Paul MacLean based on the way the Senators used him.

He has?  I wish Crozier would explain the point, because I’ve seen no indication of that at all.

-I’ll be looking at the Sens season, playoffs, and what’s coming up going forward soon, but the obvious roster changes will be the departure of Peter Regin, Mike Lundin, Guillaume Latendresse, and presumably Sergei Gonchar.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 26, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment