My annual draft material is in process–a fun time of year for me, but a hell of a lot of work.  For any and all who enjoy it and wish to support it you can do so via Patreon.

Trevor Shackles asks a good question: what do the Sens have in Zack Smith?  It’s a long piece with a fair amount of data, but can be summarized this way:

shooting over 20% isn’t sustainable for even the best of the best … scoring at a clip like he did last year has some luck involved … Beginning on the 51st game of the year, Smith began to mostly play with Mark Stone [and] Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and that’s when he really began to succeed … I think I can point to Smith and call him a good supplementary player that can chip in

I suggest you to read the entire piece as it’s quite long, but the above represents the key points.  Smith had his career season buoyed by talented linemates (especially Stone).  I don’t think Trevor emphasizes enough that 25 goals isn’t just an NHL high, but something Smith has never done at any level of hockey.  A few things become clear when you look at the whole picture: 1) the anchors in the bottom-six caused problems not just for Smith but for Pageau as well (namely Alex Chiasson, Chris Neil, and Curtis Lazar), 2) despite having spent a lot of time as part of the dreaded trio of Greening-Smith-Neil, it’s his wingers who were the larger part of his struggles, 3) I was advocating moving Smith while his value was high, but perhaps there’s enough behind beyond these career numbers to remain.

Nichols goes over Pierre Dorion’s comments about the draft on radio.  Unfortunately there’s not a lot here and Dorion wasn’t asked any interesting questions (will the team finally draft outside North America/Sweden; how will the draft improve with no meaningful additions to the scouting staff; how will the draft differ from when Bryan Murray was GM; etc).  The 2015 draft showed a disturbing tendency towards size over talent, but just one year isn’t enough to make a trend.  I agree with Nichols that this comment is disturbing:

we’re also looking at maybe improving our depth – having, maybe looking at getting a bit more experience. I don’t like to use the excuse that we’re young. I don’t think we’re young anymore. I think we’re a team that is looking to hit its stride and compete against some of the better teams in the league. If we can improve our depth, I think that’s definitely… looking at players that can play multiple roles on our team, that might be a bit more what we’re looking to do.

The last thing this team needs is to follow Murray’s tendency to hire veterans past their prime to take up roster spots, nor is it the team’s missing link to playoff contention depth.  Ottawa needs more talent and I’m also not keen on Dorion parroting Melnyk’s constant dictum of playoffs playoffs playoffs–know what you are and work with that.

Ross A continues to link this site which is much appreciated–the reach of The Silver Seven is far greater than mine–and he mentioned that I’d criticised his praise for Luke P’s piece for WTYKY.  The criticism is more about omission–I have no idea what specifically Ross was praising–the peon to Chris Phillips, the criticism of the fanbase, or all of it?  I wanted more context (even if the answer is to simply boost WTYKY’s viewership).

Writing the above makes me wonder more broadly about how fans feel about strong opinions.  Andrew (at WTYKY) is one of the only writers who gets as strident as I do, although there are certainly plenty of Don Cherry-clones for whom yelling disguises empty diatribes.  Most traditional media simply parrots the opinions of the organisation they cover (underwriting the pulse of hockey forums and blogs).  For myself I’ve always looked for opinions backed by analysis–the best facts and information available from which good arguments are made.  Do fans want rainbows and unicorns?  I really don’t know–sport is entertainment so perhaps that tickles their fancy more–it’s hard to say.

Free agent signing: Jonas Gunnarsoon (Nashville) via Malmo in the SHL.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 6, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

In what appears to be a nod to the new coaching staff, Ottawa signed former Ranger pick (4-107/05) Tom Pyatt, younger brother of Taylor, who spent the last two seasons playing for Geneva in the Swiss league.  Prior to his time in Europe he spent four unproductive seasons in the NHL (mostly for Tampa Bay, 205-25-24-49 PPG 0.23).  Unquestionably he’s Binghamton-bound and if there’s a potential silver lining in his middling career AHL numbers (156-32-51-83 PPG 0.53) it’s that in his final half-season in Hamilton he was on a torrid pace (41-13-22-35).  It’s worth pointing out the 09-10 Hamilton roster was stacked, so that impacted his production.  Realistically Pyatt is a borderline second-liner in the AHL and seemingly not the kind of asset Binghamton really needs, but I’ll hold off calling it a bad move until the roster is filled out.

I’m not sure what WTYKY as a site is anymore, but Luke P decided it was a good idea to attack the fanbase as a preamble to praising Chris Phillips (who not long after retired).  I don’t want to dwell on it too much, but let’s go over it briefly:

Essentially Sens fans have adopted the worst qualities of the fanbases that surround us

Luke’s evidence for this is…he offers none (just anecdotal references to radio show call-ins and social media).  The characterization is meant as a backdrop for praising the Big Rig, but it seems an odd sort of crutch to use.  I also remain puzzled by his inability to separate criticism of someone’s performance as a professional (in this case, as a hockey player) and who they are as a person (we’ve seen this in recent discussions of Luke Richardson and Mark Borowiecki, for instance).  Phillips might be a saintly human being, but that’s inconsequential to who he was as a player.  Ross A has praised the post without explanation (presumably referring to the comments on the Big Rig rather than the description of the fanbase–after all, The Silver Seven can’t get too negative).

Not surprisingly we hear that the Sens are likely to move Alex Chiasson, one of the poster-boys for how badly Murray has been beaten in trades during his time in Ottawa.  Nichols goes through his time with the team, including perceptions and organisational hype, but it can be summed up best this way:

He was given ample opportunity to play on the power play and play even strength minutes alongside skilled players. He just didn’t get the job done.

Amen.

[A late add: Mikael Wikstrand signed a four-year extension with Farejestad; that his future with Ottawa was over was never in doubt, but with the length of the contract means the Sens have surrendered any ability to make use of him as an asset short-term (they continue to control his rights, but with no out-clause in the contract they can make no use of it until it ends.  A suitably botched end to a ridiculous situation.]

More free agent signings: Tim Heed was signed by San Jose (identified on my FA list from a year ago), as was Yohann Auvitu by New Jersey.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 30, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

The Nichols machine recorded some Pierre Dorion patter from last week and I have a few thoughts about it:
1) why would you bother talking to Alex Chiasson?  Wash your hands of him and move on
2) I’m glad he doesn’t want to go to arbitration with Mike Hoffman (I enjoyed this as well, “I think our fans know that the relationship between Mike and the previous coach or previous coaches wasn’t the greatest“–yes Pierre, we know that)
3) I’m happy Dorion wouldn’t commit to signing either Quentin Shore or Gabriel Gagne (although his comments suggest more interest in the latter, which makes sense)
4) unfortunately Randy Lee is going to remain Binghamton’s GM, so the hope for AHL fans is that Dorion’s influence provides the team with decent talent (and please no more Danny Hobbs)
5) they are looking at experienced coaches for Binghamton rather than someone like Luke Richardson, which is a positive step
6) I’m not entirely sure how Marc Crawford will function as a “liaison” for the AHL coaching staff–does that make him functionally an assistant GM for Binghamton or is he simply Dorion’s go-between?  The facets of this are unclear to me, although it’s easy to understand why they want to make sure Bingo doesn’t play Richardson’s system anymore (sticking with Boucher’s)
7) Nichols doesn’t dwell on the obvious conclusion (due to the aforementioned reluctance to criticise Richardson), but clearly Dorion wasn’t happy that Richardson wasn’t imitating the NHL style of play in Binghamton (otherwise there would be no need for Crawford to be a liaison to ensure it)

The early fan love for Guy Boucher is amusing (he does have the best scar among NHL head coaches).  Nichols has a hard time not gushing and there’s no question Boucher’s a great talker and as a fan I want to buy in too.  If memory serves the Sens had interest in Boucher back in 2010, but wouldn’t give the term Tampa Bay offered (four years).  I can’t say I’m nearly as excited by the presence of Marc Crawford, whose amply demonstrated at the end of his NHL tenure that he had lost touch with what works in the NHL, but as an assistant that’s not very relevant.

It all sounds so good, but like any coach who’s introduced after his predecessor crashed and burned in the previous season, the newness and sheen of the replacement has yet to wear off. Optimism abounds and it will take some time before fans and the media can micro-analyze Boucher’s actions and identify his own shortcomings.

Exactly.  Mid-season we can take a stab at it.

At the bottom of a Ross A piece he says something I found surprising:

There’s been a lot of complaints that we’ve been too negative as a blog this past season. I know i contributed to that.

I assume the first sentence is incomplete and should say “There have been a lot of reader complaints etc.”  Really?  The entire site strikes me as positive in tone–just how fluffy do they need to be?  Obviously The Silver Seven needs to be beholden to their readership, but it’s a sad state of affairs if that many people need a rose-coloured view of the team.  Perhaps it’s a common sentiment for fans in this city?  You’d think the incessant organisational pap from the regular media would be enough.

Erik Karlsson is all smiles as he waits to talk to the media following the Ottawa Senators announcment of the signing of Bobby Ryan for an additional 7 years and that Erik Karlsson has become the 9th captain in franchise history. Assignment 118527 // Photo taken at 09:34 on October 2, 2014. (Wayne Cuddington/Ottawa Citizen)

Speaking of Ross A, he posted the individual (as opposed to collective) grades given by The Silver Seven staff and I want to point out that my old buddy Jeff Ulmer gave Max McCormick the same grade he gave Erik Karlsson (an A)–he wasn’t asked about this oddity in the Q&A, sadly, but as someone who watched  McCormick in a Binghamton context all year I wouldn’t give him an “A” if you put a gun to my head–he’s a good grinder who tops out as a fourth liner in the NHL–nothing to get excited about.  I was also entertained by a few quotes about Mark Borowiecki:

[Adnan] There is nothing useful that Borowiecki does well compared to NHL players. I think Callum is better than Boro in some ways. I don’t think there has ever been a defenceman less deserving of an NHL roster spot since I have been a Senators fan.

[NKB] Borowiecki did nothing this year to convince me he was an NHL-calibre defenseman. He’s actually a decent skater, but he simply hasn’t improved his play with the puck and the Sens have a terrible time breaking out of their end when he’s on the ice. Taken all together, he’s just not capable at this level. I can’t give anything but an F to someone who I don’t consider to be an NHL-level player.

[Callum] Every argument I’ve ever heard in favour of Borowiecki has to do with his fighting, leadership and effort. Those are the three attributes I look at the least when evaluating a player. The arguments usually end with the other person saying “you just don’t understand.” And that’s fair. Because it’s true. I don’t understand why Borowiecki is an everyday NHLer.

This tickled the cockles of my heart–I agree with all three on the Borocop–may he fester in the pressbox throughout 2016-17.  Incidentally, I’ve mentioned before that I’m not fond of grading systems (eg here) since they almost never have an actual rubric behind them, but Ary M actually created one for himself and it’s pretty similar to what I use.

Former Sens pick Marcus Sorensen has been signed by San Jose as a free agent–he was on my list of potential signings and it will be interesting to see how he does with the Sharks.

Minnesota signed Hungarian goaltender Adam Vay as a free agent out of the incredibly obscure Hungarian league (the Mol Liga)–before we get too excited about the selection he did spend two years playing US junior hockey and I suspect his size (6’5) is one of the major reasons behind the signing.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 19, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Nichols posted a great (and long) State of the Union piece on where the Sens are and what their year was like.  There’s a lot to absorb, but virtually nothing to disagree with (perhaps he could have included the insanity of Mikael Wikstrand‘s situation, but I suppose that would make the article even longer).  In essence we stand on the precipice of whether or not Pierre Dorion will truly be his own man as GM (in a positive, progressive sense), or not, along with how much Eugene Melnyk’s insanity will impact what happens.

It’s not surprisingly the Sens lost out on the Drake Caggiula sweepstakes–despite the opportunities the Sens soft lineup offers, it makes a ton of sense for the NCAA free agent to want to play with the staggering forward talent available to him in Edmonton.  There’s no guarantee Caggiula will be a great NHL player–it’s a rare thing even for hyped NCAA forwards–but for the prospect-starved Sens he would have been a great addition.

Just as unsurprising as the above was Bruce Boudreau choosing greener pastures (Minnesota), as the Sens balked at the term he wanted (4 years).  I mentioned a few weeks ago when the coaching search started that I wasn’t going to get excited by who the Sens interviewed, so never spent time speculating on what he could or couldn’t do if he was hired.  As it turned out the Sens have landed Guy Boucher (giving him 3 years), a highly touted coach back in the day who has been plying his trade in Europe since getting bounced out of Tampa Bay.  Nichols dives deep on who Boucher was in his first head coaching gig–after one good season he fell off the rails on the heels of defensive struggles (some of which can be blamed on goaltending).  Damian Cristodero talks about Boucher’s infamous 1-3-1 style, believing that after his first season teams adapted to it.  When I researched coaching success back in March I came up with this:

hiring younger, more inexperienced coaches has a more positive impact (presumably a more adaptive group); coaches with historical losing records also provide as boost, as do (paradoxically) those who have won a Stanley Cup

At 44 Boucher is young and with less than 3-seasons in the NHL he’s not heavily experienced, but you have to take all these things with a grain of salt.  Ultimately the impact of a coach is limited by the talent available to him, so that’s the next challenge for Pierre Dorion.

It has been clear to me since he was drafted that Curtis Lazar is an underwhelming player given his pedigree (first-round pick).  Trevor Shackles does a deep dive to look at the comparables and arrives at the horror show you’d expect for someone with no hands (if you read through the scouting reports prior to him being drafted none of his offensive struggles are a surprise).  He’s basically a Senators special: a physical, hard-worker who struggles to generate offence.  There was no reason to rush him into the NHL, but Bryan Murray’s inconsistent attitude towards prospects struck here.  There’s always hope for him to blossom I suppose, but I think he’ll remain a third or fourth line forward.

A little Binghamton note in relation to the potential move of the franchise to Belleville via Jeff Ulmer transcription:

All I know is that the AHL is committed to being here for not only the three years we have right now but we’re working on adding another six. The AHL is very, very committed to Broome County, I’m not even, I’m not worried about having an AHL team here, I know we will.

The key here is that Tom Mitchell didn’t say the Senators are committed to being in Binghamton, but the AHL.  I take this as a tacit admission that he’s aware that the Sens are interested in moving, but confident if that happens another franchise will take their place.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 9, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Nichols goes over the unintended comedy of Pierre Dorion saying he has carte blanche to hire the best coach available with Eugene Melnyk immediately walking the comment back including this canard:

To put that kind of money out for one single person, that’s tough, even from a  management point of view. You wouldn’t do that with an executive, why go crazy in the business of hockey to do that?

This is so absurd not even Melnyk believes it–an executive often does make absurd amounts of money in business (Melnyk seems to embrace Donald Trump’s emphasis on verbal diarrhea).  The point is less about the specific comment and more about Melnyk’s refusal to spend money on his hockey operations (season tickets available folks!), so with Dorion’s hands tied it’s hard to imagine a top coach with a brain wanting to handcuff themselves into Ottawa’s situation.  My guess is Dorion will roll the dice with an assistant coach (ala Paul MacLean).  Incidentally, I never went into how much of a slap in the face it was to Luke Richardson to tell him he won’t even be considered for Ottawa’s head coach position–while it’s the right decision, often teams will at least formally go through the motions with their AHL coach when a change is being made–not so here, which is a welcome acknowledgement of how bad Richardson was in Binghamton.

Speaking of Nichols, it’s interesting to see someone as disinterested in prospects as he is noticing the Sens going big (as in size) since Tim Murray left.  I agree with him wholeheartedly that skill is what should matter.  One interesting thing Pierre Dorion said (via the same link):

did the guy that we had slotted 10 and he wasn’t in our top-12, well, why did he go there? And did the guy that went 14, he wasn’t in our top-10 and should we have had him there? And why is that? As staffs, we sit back and always reflect on, ‘Why didn’t we like this guy that’s turned out to be a player?’ or, ‘Why did we like this guy who hasn’t turned out to be a player?’ So it’s something that we do as an exercise quite often

This is excellent to hear, but I’ve seen no evidence that the Sens have shifted their drafting philosophy due to such exercises.  There is an almost mindnumbing sameness to their drafts from 2008-2015 (with minor variations when Tim Murray was around).  Dorian also mentions that they had Cody Ceci in the top-5 or 6 of the 2012 draft and it’s difficult to make sense of that in retrospect (for those who remember my 2012 draft preview no scouting service had Ceci any higher than 10th).

Worsteverything has a four-part series on the Sens, but what I wanted to address are his comments on Luke Richardson (which echo those around the blogosphere, as I went over previously):

Luke Richardson is an awesome and inspirational person who has been through unimaginable stuff. My respect for him and his family almost makes writing stuff like this objectively quite challenging … Luke seems like a positive guy and a very good communicator from what I can gather from interviews … I hate that the organization loses such a quality person but ultimately I support both a full coaching changeover as well as giving Richardson his best chance to advance his career

I really wish bloggers who are unfamiliar with something would leave it alone (or, at least, not try to assess it).  Richardson seems like a good communicator from interviews?  Wat?  It’s the written equivalent of throwing up your hands and saying “I haven’t a clue!”–so why bother?  I’m not sure what purpose is being served here, but I suppose at the least I can repeat: he’s a bad coach (as is clear from the statistical evidence available to everyone or by hitting up Google to find an assessment), but his charity work and personal tragedy seems to overwhelm anyone’s efforts to assess him as a professional.

DJ Powers wrote a piece about Ottawa prospect Christian Wolanin–it’s a basic Q&A, although it does cover who his primary defensive partners were this season (Tucker Poolman and Keaton Thompson–both drafted players and both with better numbers than the rookie, albeit not overwhelmingly so).

Chapin Landvogt puts Marcus Hogberg at the top of drafted goaltending talent in Sweden, although there’s not a ton of substance to this, but he does say:

Taking these decent, yet not entirely uncommon, SHL numbers into account, one must note that he manned the nets behind a defensive group that featured three regulars aged 19 or younger

And then wonders if he’d be better off with another season in Sweden.  The Sens would have to sign him first for that to be a question (they lose his rights this year if they don’t), but currently there’s no place for him anywhere else, so that seems entirely probable.

My psychic powers paid off as Michael Keranen signed with Jokerit as fast as humanly possible (not, incidentally, his previous Liiga team–he was with Ilves when Minnesota signed him).

More FA signings: Sergei Zaitsev (aka Sergei Zaytsev; Toronto), Lukas Bengtsson (Pittsburgh), Linus Hultstrom (Florida), Michael Garteig (Vancouver), and Daniel Pribyl (former Montreal pick; Calgary).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 2, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

A unique set of Finnish visitors came to the site the other day reading my ancient Nathan Lawson profile from four years ago.  Someone (“Rinksu”) on the HPK end of the Jatkoaika Keskustelu boards linked it and I hope fans there got something useful out of it (HPK has lost one of its goaltenders, former Edmonton pick Samu Perhonen, while the other ‘tender, Jere Myllyniemi, had an awful season; presumably Lawson is in the rumour-mill after spending a couple of years in the Austrian league).

I also appreciate the RT from Nichols yesterday–it’s gratifying when poppabear gives you a little love.

Ary M has a piece discussing potential options for Ottawa’s bottom-pairing (something likely moot since the current options are already signed), but what grabbed my attention were these two comments:

Fredrik Claeasson has been Binghamton’s best defender for quite some time but likely caps out as a 6th defender.

Can you just state that as fact?  It’s certainly something that gets tossed around by fans a lot, but internally the organisation rewarded the god awful Mark Fraser (?) and I feel like Freddy has showed some worrying signs (such as his on-ice numbers for powerplay goals against).  My feeling is that Ary M has watched very few Binghamton games and is simply repeating sentiments he’s heard.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to save Luke Richardson

Why is this unfortunate?  As above there’s no effort to justify the statement–for those of us who’ve watched the trainwreck that was Richardson this was a welcome relief (about which I discussed here; and about the coaching staff in general, here).

Speaking of Binghamton, Nichols breaks down the rumour that Ottawa might be looking to move it’s AHL affiliate to Belleville.  There are two hurdles to this (the Bruce Garrioch report suggests the team wants the move for the 2017-18 season), and let’s look at them quickly:
1. The Sens signed an agreement with Binghamton through the 2018-19 season
I wasn’t able to find an example of an NHL team breaking it’s affiliate agreement, but I imagine it’s not an insurmountable hurdle (there are likely mechanisms within the contract allowing it to happen)
2. Millions of dollars are needed to renovate the the arena and the city council has yet to approve the money
Belleville lost it’s OHL team to Hamilton last year in part to city council refusing to invest in arena improvements; however, there was a recent report that suggests the changes required are already underway:

During closed door talks Thursday, council approved spending $510,000 (contract worth $450,000) for an Ottawa-based firm to commence drawings and designs aimed at rejuvenating the antiquated arena.

What it will do is convince a pair of current suitors the city is serious about bringing hockey back to Belleville. The mayor is holding “healthy discussions” with those clubs, one of which the city has signed a non-disclosure agreement with and the second interested party inking a “letter of intent with a party that we’ve been discussing for the last four months and we’ve extended that for 30 days. It’s a party that has interest in our community in a hockey capacity.”

We know the non-disclosure agreement is with the Senators, but not who the second suitor is.  Garrioc’s report means Ottawa’s management wants the notion floated, but it remains to be seen if an actual deal will be finalised.  (In researching this, incidentally,  I came across an old blog by AHL President Dave Andrews which is worth reading.)

For those who missed it I provided my breakdown of Binghamton’s season yesterday.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 26, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

Another long and disappointing season is in the books for Binghamton and it’s time for my review (you can read last year’s here).  Let’s start with the basics: the team finished 31-38-7 (14th in the conference), falling out of serious contention at the beginning of the season then muddling along the rest of the way.  How does this compare to last season?  Let’s compare them side-by-side (2014-15/2015-16):
34-34-8/31-38-7 (-3 wins, -7 points, -3 places in the conference (14th))
242 GF/204 GF (-38, dropping from 1st in the conference to 9th)
358 GA/341 GA (+17, moving up two places in the conference to 13th)
PP 20.6/17.8 (-2.8, dropping seven places from 2nd)
PK 81.1/81.8 (+0.7, moving up four places from 24th)

What’s evident is that Luke Richardson can’t coach defense.  The team’s goal scoring is a reflection of talent rather than strategy, but it’s staggering how awful they’ve been defensively (including on special teams) for the past two seasons.  There are plenty of excuses to be made for this fact which I’ll address below.

The AHL regular season consists of 76 games, so the most convenient way to divide it up is in four 19-game intervals (notable streaks in brackets):
5-12-2 (Oct.10-Nov.28; 5 straight losses, front end of 5 straight losses)
10-8-1 (Dec.4-Jan.16; back end of 5 straight losses, 4 straight losses, 5 straight wins, front end of 5 straight losses)
First half: 15-20-3 (33 points)
7-11-1 (Jan.22-Mar.5; back end of 5 straight losses, 4 straight wins, 4 straight losses)
9-7-3 (Mar.8-Apr.17; 4 straight wins, 7 straight losses)
Second half: 16-18-4 (36 points)

This is a remarkable number of streaks, tallying 13 of the teams total wins (41%) along with 30 of their losses (66%).  What’s apparent is how things never improved–no matter what happened to the roster, Binghamton failed more often than not–saddled with a coaching staff and management group unable to foster any solutions.  A lot of excuses have been made for these results because of the roster, so we’ll look at that next.

The players below are listed by points-per-game (PPG), with a minimum of 15 games played (this applies to ECHL stats as well); rookies are in italics; players in blue were 25 and older at the start of the season; AHL season totals are in brackets for traded players (additions to the roster during the season are underlined):

Phil Varone 21-6-17-23 (1.09) [65-19-36-55 (0.84)]
Jason Akeson 21-5-17-22 (1.04) [73-13-39-52 (0.71)]
Matt Puempel 34-17-13-30 (0.88)
Ryan Dzingel 44-12-24-36 (0.81)
Cole Schneider 54-17-25-42 (0.77) [73-21-35-56 (0.76)]
Eric O’Dell 50-18-19-37 (0.74) [67-27-23-50 (0.74)]
Casey Bailey 30-7-14-21 (0.70) [68-11-28-39 (0.57)]
Tobias Lindberg 34-5-17-22 (0.64) [56-11-23-34 (0.60)]
Michael Kostka 50-5-24-29 (0.58)
Max McCormick 57-15-15-30 (0.52)
David Dziurzynski 43-8-12-20 (0.46)
Kyle Flanagan 44-6-14-20 (0.45)
Jerome Leduc 22-4-6-10 (0.45) [76-11-15-26 (0.34)]
Patrick Mullen 36-1-15-16 (0.44) [65-3-27-30 (0.46)]
Ryan Rupert 30-7-6-13 (0.43) [59-13-12-25 (0.42)]
Buddy Robinson 62-13-10-23 (0.37)
Nick Paul 45-6-11-17 (0.37)
Michael Keranen 21-4-3-7 (0.33) [66-12-18-30 (0.45)]
Colin Greening 41-7-6-13 (0.31)
Conor Allen 17-1-4-5 (0.29) [66-3-11-14 (0.21)]
Zack Stortini 66-8-8-16 (0.24)
Ryan Penny 24-2-3-5 (0.20) [ECHL 33-10-13-23 (0.69)]
Guillaume Lepine 69-4-9-13 (0.18)
Chris Carlisle 65-4-8-12 (0.18)
Fredrik Claesson 55-3-7-10 (0.18)
Danny Hobbs 50-3-4-7 (0.14)
Travis Ewanyk 68-5-4-9 (0.13)
Ben Harpur 47-2-4-6 (0.12)
Mark Fraser 60-2-5-7 (0.11)
Michael Sdao 17-0-2-2 (0.11) [29-0-6-6 (0.20)]
Nick Tuzzolino 27-1-0-1 (0.03)

Scott Greenham 3-1-0 2.19 .928 [ECHL 11-9-3 2.78 .920]
Chris Driedger 18-15-4 2.83 .912
Matt O’Connor 10-20-3 3.31 .895

ECHL Prospects (players on ELCs)
Troy Rutkowski 61-6-24-30 (0.49)
Vincent Dunn 55-13-14-27 (0.49)

I was curious what the with-or-without you numbers were in terms of wins–which players had a noticeable drag on the lineup or gave it a boost.  With the team’s overall winning percentage serving as the baseline (0.40) and understanding this kind of breakdown favours or punishes players with fewer games played, here are the numbers (those in green are above the line, those in red are below):
Sdao 0.58
Lindberg, Keranen, Flanagan 0.47
Bailey, Rupert 0.46
Leduc 0.45
Puempel 0.44
Lepine 0.43
Kostka, Varone, Akeson, Hobbs 0.42
Greening 0.41
team 0.40
O’Dell, Paul, Carlisle, Claesson, Stortini 0.40
Schneider, Dzingel, McCormick, Harpur, Mullen 0.38
Penny, Tuzzolino 0.37
Ewanyk, Fraser 0.36
Robinson 0.35
Dziurzynski 0.32
Allen 0.29

The most obvious thing here is that players added late in the season are slightly above the average while those who did not play then are slightly below.  Sdao, Allen, Leduc,  Keranen, Varone, and Akeson did not play enough games to really establish their effect.  Anything within .03% of the team average is within the margin of error.  With that in mind Lindberg, Flanagan, Bailey, Rupert, and Puempel stand atop the list, while Dziurzynski, Robinson,  Ewanyk, and “top-defenseman” Fraser sit along the bottom.  How many wins or losses do these percentages translate too?  At the top it’s 3-5 more wins, while on the bottom it ranges from 3-6 losses.  In my opinion the difference relates to puck-possession (or lack thereof).

There is a lot to unpack with all the information that is on-hand, so let’s start with a few general observations:
-the team was awash with veterans, so making the excuse that the team’s results were due to a “youth” doesn’t wash
-Binghamton traded seven players to no noticeable effect on team performance (despite claims from others that there was improvement)
-however much some fans might want to make the excuse that a lot of the best prospects on the team were away in Ottawa, when they were in the AHL there was no tangible difference in team results
-the garbage-time production of Varone and Akeson (and Bailey) can’t be taken at face value (the tallies for the entire season seem right for their expected production)

Selected thoughts on individuals:
–McCormick‘s numbers made a solid jump in his sophomore season (0.32 to 0.52), but much of that was due to Richardson jamming him down the throat of productive lines and the PP (places he doesn’t belong–I’d keep him on the third line and off the PP)
–Robinson was jerked around all season and that impacted his totals (0.45 to 0.37); his worst struggles were at the end of the season with just 1 point in his final 12 games
–Paul‘s production was awful; he never recovered from being irrationally scratched early in the season
–Stortini was unable to replicate his career numbers from the previous season (0.32 to 0.24), despite getting enormous amounts of PP time (he finished with just 1 point in his final 16 games)
-Career ECHLer Lepine spent the entire season being carried by partner Kostka, so don’t let his numbers fool you
–Claesson did not have a great season, with particular struggles on the PK
-While Penny is not the most talented prospect out there, it boggles the mind that he was passed over for the likes of Ewanyk and Hobbs
–Driedger, while clearly the best of the tandem, he did have his struggles (particularly in January); he finished tied for 19th in the league in save percentage (third among AHL rookie goaltenders–while it’s not his rookie season as a prospect, it’s his first full season in the AHL); it’s a solid showing for him playing behind an atrocious defensecorps
–O’Connor struggled mightily in his rookie campaign, and while he stabilized with the team firmly out of the playoff race (only 3 sub-.900 games in his last 15 starts), it remains to be seen if that’s a trend or what his ceiling really is (he finished 44th in the league in save percentage)

What can we conclude?  The lineup in Binghamton was never going to light the world on fire, but the coaching staff only achieved the baseline of its potential.  Lineup choices were unimaginative, young players were stifled, and older players of limited talent were given far too much leeway.  None of the rookies who remain in the organisation had good seasons and none of the player movement had any impact on results–all the significant problems rest on the shoulders of management and coaches, none of whom were willing to accept it (instead blaming the players).  Thankfully Luke Richardson has moved on and we can only hope that Randy Lee is removed from his GM position going forward.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 25, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

I thought about going ham and doing a complete retrospective of Murray’s career, but rather than that massive wall of text I decided I’d pick a few idiosyncrasies that I think illustrate his struggles in Ottawa (and however much fans might want to give him a pass because of Eugene Melnyk’s interference, what we’re about to see is pure Bryan Murray).  For those who prefer retrospectives that are  roses and puppy-dogs, Senschirp is here for you.

Aging Veterans

If there’s one thing Murray loved it was players well past their prime:
2007-08 (1st round sweep)
Luke Richardson (38) – 76-2-7-9 (re-signed then retired early)
Cory Stillman (T) (34) – 24-3-16-19 (played 3 more seasons)
Martin Lapointe (T) (34) – 18-3-3-6 (retired)
Dean McAmmond (33) – 68-9-13-22 (played 3 more seasons)
Randy Robitaille (32) – 68-10-19-29 (6 more seasons in Europe/AHL)
Shean Donovan (T) (32) – 82-5-7-12 (2 more seasons)
2008-09 (missed playoffs)
Jason Smith (35) – 63-1-0-1 (retired)
Jarkko Ruutu (33) – 78-7-14-21 (2 more seasons)
2009-10 (1st round in 6)
Alex Kovalev (36) – 77-18-31-49 (2 more seasons)
Andy Sutton (T) (34) – 18-1-0-1 (2 more seasons)
Matt Cullen (T) (33) – 21-4-4-8 (active player)
Jonathan Cheechoo (T) (29) – 61-5-9-14 (6 seasons in Europe/AHL)
2010-11 (missed playoffs)
Sergei Gonchar (36) – 67-7-20-27 (4 more seasons)
(Francis Lessard) (31) – 24-0-0-0 (1 more AHL season)
2011-12 (1st round in 7)
Alex Auld (30) – 3.35 .884 (1 more in Europe)
Zenon Konopka (30) – 55-3-2-5 (2 more seasons)
2013-14 (missed playoffs)
Joe Corvo (36) – 25-3-7-10 (retired)
Ales Hemsky (T) (30) – 20-4-13-17 (active player)
2014-15 (1st round in 6)
David Legwand (34) – 80-9-18-27 (active player)
(Todd Bertuzzi) (39) – did not play (retired)
2015-16 (missed playoffs)
Scott Gomez (36) – 13-0-1-1 (theoretically “active”)
Dion Phaneuf (T) (30) 20-1-7-8 (active player)

Ostensibly you add veterans to make a Cup run, but there’s no corollary here.  It’s worth noting that the one season Murray didn’t add an aging vet (12-13) is the only season his team won a round in the playoffs.  Lessard is in brackets because he was on a two-way contract, but who signs a guy like that to a two-way and then plays him in the NHL?  Bertuzzi is also in brackets because he ultimately got hurt before he ever played with the Sens, but the hope was that he would.  A few of these players delivered in one way or another, but many of these signings are well beyond the keen of any sense whatsoever–Richardson, Smith, Lapointe, Donovan, Cheechoo, Auld, Konopka, Corvo, Legwand, and Gomez were all players who were done–there was nothing left in the tank and that was obvious to even casual fans on the outside.  One of Murray’s main problems was his outdated belief that veterans brought magical “character” to the room and would help in the playoffs–a bit like wearing a lucky rabbit’s foot–something that might have been true 20 years ago, but has been irrelevant since the end of the Dead Puck Era.

College/CHL Free Agents

Next let’s look at various swings at the fences when it comes to signing college and junior free agents (he did not sign any free agent players from Europe to ELCs):

2008
Jesse Winchester (NHL 285-20-50-70; technically on Colorado’s roster)
2009
Bobby Butler (NHL 130-20-29-49; bombed out in Europe)
Craig Schira-WHL (last four seasons in Europe)
2010
Stephane Da Costa (NHL 47-7-4-11; last two seasons in the KHL)
David Dziurzynski-BCHL (NHL 26-3-3-6)
2011
Pat Cannone (no NHL games played)
Wacey Hamilton-WHL (no NHL games played)
2012
Cole Schneider (NHL 2-0-0-0)
Buddy Robinson (NHL 3-1-1-2)
2013
Andrew Hammond (NHL 49 games played)
Ludwig Karlsson (career ECHLer)
Garrett Thompson (split his time between the ECHL/AHL)
Troy Rutkowski-WHL (career ECHLer)
2015
Matt O’Connor
Macoy Erkamps (WHL)

While we can’t judge the latter two yet, this is an atrocious record.  It’s a collection of marginal to poor talent with no bonafide NHL players other than perhaps Andrew Hammond (I think you could argue maybe Da Costa could have played in the right situation and the jury is still be out on Schneider, but that’s it).  The sad thing is there’s no real sign of improvement here–no noticeable trend–just shots in the dark over and over again (and their Western junior scouts need their heads examined).

I bring up these two particular elements in Murray’s playbook because they are all within his control.  There was a gradual reduction in signing older players, but that change is also tied to budgetary constraints, so it’s not clear he actually learned his lesson (despite repeatedly saying it’s “a young man’s game” he also continuously kept and signed aging vets).  As for free agents, getting one backup goaltender out of so many ELCs is a poor track record (you might count Winchester is another “success”, but I felt he was shoehorned into the NHL), and it’s sometimes difficult to understand the thinking behind the signings (Karlsson and Thompson are particularly egregious).  These self-inflicted wounds hampered the organisation and are one of the reasons Ottawa struggled so hard to just make the playoffs.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 21, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

I’ve been a little distracted lately, but while not a lot has happened in the last week for the Sens there’s enough to sink my teeth into.  I’m not that excited about who the Sens interview for coaching positions however–we’ll discuss what I think of who they hire when that happens.

Fans love their Old Time Hockey–nothing quite like grown men punching each other in the face to send a message or deal with their emotional equilibrium.  Amazingly, fighting has declined to it’s lowest point since 1968, which will come to as a shock to Rock ’em Sock ’em fans.  This isn’t surprising to anyone outside the org and Brian Burke, but it’s always worth noting.

On the Hockey PDO podcast a week ago or so NBA analyst Seth Partnow compared where the NHL is now with analytics to where the NBA was back in 2003, which is an interesting observation of just how conservative the NHL is when it comes to numbers.

Travis Yost looks at success in pulling goaltenders late in the game and concludes that the earlier the pull the better.

At long last the bell has rung for Luke Richardson as he and the Sens agreed to part ways.  It’s a sensible move, albeit one that comes long after his shortcomings were readily apparent.  There’s an immense reluctance among bloggers to criticise Richardson that I find curious.  Let’s go to my old buddy Jeff Ulmer first:

His only knock in my book, and it’s a big one, was not advancing in the post-season

Really?  That’s the only knock on him–everything else is sunshine and rainbows?  It’s hard to believe this is Jeff’s opinion, but I think it is (truculence carries you a long way apparently, as does being employed by the team).  Here’s the typically more analytical Nichols:

Binghamton’s decline is not all on Richardson however. … I only wish Richardson and his family the best. As they move on, I hope that this community continues to promote mental health awareness and Richardson’s Do It for Daron (D.I.F.D.)  initiative.

I’ve arranged the quote this way because I believe the latter is the primary reason we get the kid gloves from Nichols (that and the fact that he doesn’t watch Binghamton).  No one looking at either how the BSens have played or their numbers could think the coach has done a good job, but Richardson the human being has become a bigger persona than Richardson the coach.  This assessment should have nothing to do with his personal life–a lot of excellent professionals are terrible people in their personal lives and a lot of wonderful people are lousy professionals–I have no difficulty in separating them out.

The worrying signs for me about Richardson started last year, when I concluded the team would be better off without him (his flaws the first two seasons were largely hidden behind a wall of talent).  This feeling was compounded when Richardson blamed his first difficult year on a lack of experience, despite a lineup filled with veterans, and this habitual decision to pass the blame and refuse responsibility continued throughout this season’s difficult run.  I always thought tough guys were the ones to say “the buck stops here”, but in this case the buck never reached the top.  I called for him to be fired in November, but alas he was left to linger the rest of the year (I have to wonder if Melnykian cash restraints are part of the reason).

For anyone paying attention to how Richardson ran his lines and ran his team he was a complete disaster.  He consistently failed to learn from his mistakes, praised the wrong players, and failed at his most important job: development.  As an AHL coach there are always going to be players so talented that the coach is irrelevant, and there will always be players so awful no one can save them, but there’s no example of a marginal player who got better under Richardson.  Prospects flatlined or declined under his ministration, as Richardson favoured grinders and aging veterans over talent and this season was by far the best example of that.  I could go on about his poor choices and unwillingness to learn or accept responsibility for anything, but there’s no point in beating a dead horse (I go over some of it here).  Richardson will have no problem getting assistant coaching jobs around the league, but no one with any sense is ever going to give him a head coaching position again.

Binghamton finished playing out the string going 4-1-1 in garbage time.  I’ll do a full season breakdown in a separate article, but here are the stats for those final games:

Phil Varone 5-1-6-7
Jason Akeson 5-2-4-6
Casey Bailey 6-2-4-6
Max McCormick 6-3-2-5
Jerome Leduc 6-1-4-5
Matt Puempel 3-2-2-4
Ryan Rupert 6-2-2-4
Danny Hobbs 6-1-1-2
Michael Keranen 6-0-1-1
Buddy Robinson 3-0-1-1
Ben Harpur 3-1-0-1
Nick Tuzzolino 6-1-0-1
Chris Carlisle 6-0-1-1
David Dziurzynski 2-0-0-0
Mike Borkowski 2-0-0-0 (released)
Andrew Miller 2-0-0-0 (released)
Kevin Morris 2-0-0-0 (released)
Mark Fraser 3-0-0-0
Guillaume Lepine 6-0-0-0
Travis Ewanyk 6-0-0-0
Nathan Todd 6-0-0-0
Nicholas Trecapelli 6-0-0-0
Kevin Tansey 6-0-0-0
Chris Driedger 2-0-1 2.83 .912
Matt O’Connor 2-1-0 3.31 .895

These are garbage-time numbers, but what’s remarkable is how outside the top two lines (and a brief flurry from Leduc on the blueline) there’s absolutely nothing generated from anywhere else (I’m a little amused that Richardson, who has struggled with European players, managed to completely asphyxiate Keranen–2 points in his last 14 games).  I can only hope Pierre Dorion (or whoever makes decisions for Binghamton next season) jettisons the vast swath of ECHL talent BSens fans were forced to watch this season.  Excluding the ATO and PTO players, there are six players above who belong in the ECHL.

A few more free agent signings to note: Malte Stromwall (Rangers), Mantas Armalis (San Jose), Troy Stecher (Vancouver), Nick Ellis (Edmonton), Alex Lyon (Philadelphia), Sam Anas (Minnesota), and Justin Scott (Columbus).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 20, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments

Pierre Dorion made his first moves as GM firing most of the coaching staff (Dave Cameron, Andre Tourigny, and Rick Wamsley); Jason Smith was also removed, but offered another position which he may or may not take.  Only Chris Schwarz and Tim Pattyson remain (for now) at the NHL level.  I hope we see a similar cleansing at the AHL level, but one thing at a time–and frankly, keep in mind this is the most obvious and easy move Dorion can make.

The only potential surprise in all this is Wamsley, who has received a lot of credit for goaltending development since he joined the organisation in the summer of 2010, so let’s look at his results and see if that praise is earned:
2010-11
Brian Elliott – the worst season of his career and is traded to Colorado; has had fantastic numbers in his five seasons in St. Louis (3rd in save% this season)
Pascal Leclaire – utter disaster; retired after the season
Craig Anderson – regained his form after being acquired from Colorado (full breakdown of him below)
2011-12
Alex Auld – worst season of his career sending him to Europe before he retired
2012-13
Ben Bishop – had decent numbers, but is traded to Tampa; now the Lightning’s #1 goaltender (4th in save% this season)
2013-14
Robin Lehner – worst numbers of his career; doesn’t improve much the following season; now Buffalo’s #1 goaltender (9th in save% this season)
2014-15
Andrew Hammond – career numbers, which came back to earth this season

Wamsley has been unable to get the most out of three #1 goaltenders (we can argue about Lehner, but he’s a projected #1 goaltender and that’s how Buffalo is treating him), while ushering out the careers of two others.  What he can hang his hat on is basically Craig Anderson, and as much as fans love him he’s been all over the place with Ottawa (I’ve excluded the 2010-11 mid-season numbers as I don’t see what impact Wamsley could have had):
2011-12 .914
2012-13 .941
2013-14 .911
2014-15 .923
2015-16 .916
If you remove 12-13 this is not particularly impressive.  I don’t see anything here that suggests the Sens are truly losing something of value in Wamsley.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 12, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments