Senators News: June 27th

-Despite his reputation as a temperamental guy, Robin Lehner has learned to answer media questions when it comes to his future.  “I’m trying to prepare myself as good as I can now, to get a spot. You never know. You go for it and see what happens. I’m feeling good. I’m looking forward to (camp) and I’m excited. They’re doing the best they think, for me. They’re not trying to go against me. They’re trying to develop me as good as they want. I’m an asset to them. They want me to do as good as possible. You’ve got to trust them, too. They’ve got a lot of hockey experience in this organization. I’m 20, going on 21. I don’t know that much. I’m just eager to play, eager to show myself. When I’m in Sweden during the summer, of course you’re trying to see what happens. But I’m confident, I’m not too nervous. I really like this organization. I don’t want to leave this organization. Whatever it takes. I don’t think it’s going to happen. That’s my gut feeling. I don’t see it happening. If it would, it would. I’m an asset and they’re going to use me as best they can.

James Gordon floats the idea of signing Jordan Tootoo.  It’s not a preposterous idea, but I don’t see the Sens signing any FA other than a defenceman.

ISS (Ross MacLean) looks at the best draft picks by round and gives the Sens the nod for the third round, saying “The third round had several great picks, but Ottawa made my two favorite selections of the entire draft with goaltender Chris Driedger at 76 and Jarrod Maidens at 82. Driedger has great potential and brings a tremendous attitude and never-quit passion to the crease, while Maidens would have been a first-rounder if he hadn’t missed most of the OHL season due to injury. While Maidens’ long-term health status remains in the air, his upside is tremendous.

Ken Warren doesn’t like the fact that Justin Schultz is getting to pick the team he plays on.  Warren’s argument is that because the Ducks picked him and invested in him as an asset, he owes it to Anaheim to play for them.  He suggests that this kind of behaviour violates the spirit of the draft.  It’s an absurd argument.  Any team that drafted Schultz would have put the same effort into developing him–all drafted players are assets that teams develop.  The Ducks could have tried to salvage something from losing him by trading his rights, but declined to do so.  Warren is right that the draft is designed to add balance to the league, but here I’d say the fault is Anaheim’s for not making their organisation appealing enough to Schultz.   Finally,  Schultz is fully within his rights to do exactly what he is doing.  If the Ducks don’t like it, they can blame the league and try to negotiate a way to prevent it in the next CBA, but I doubt anything will change.  Almost all the power within the league is with the teams and I have no issue with a player using a loophole available to him.

Reviewing the Ottawa Senators’ 2012 NHL Entry Draft

With the draft in the books it’s time to take a look at how the Ottawa Senators did.  Just like the previous two drafts the Sens tried to land a 2nd round pick and were unable to do so.  As with the recent Murray trends, the team went local with an Ottawa 67, picked a player from the QMJHL, selected from the WHL, USHL, Sweden, and picked a player nearly off the map.  I’ve compiled all the scouting reports I can find below.  Beyond that I look at my predictions.  Here’s who was picked:

First Round – Cody Ceci 15th overall

Third Round – Chris Driedger 76th overall, Jarrod Maidens 82nd overall (pick acquired from Nashville in the Mike Fisher trade)

Fourth Round – Timothy Boyle 106th overall

Fifth Round – Robbie Baillargeon 136th overall

Sixth Round – Francois Brassard 166th overall

Seventh Round – Mikael Wikstrand 196th overall

Acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), RLR (Red Line Report), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), McK (Mckeen’s), THN (The Hockey News), CSNA (Central Scouting North American skater), CSNAG (CS North American goalie), CSE (CS European skater)

The Players
Cody Ceci (DR, 6’2, DOB 1993, OHL 64-17-43-60)
Draft rankings: CSNA #6, THN/ISS #10, FC #11, McK #12, HP #13, TSN #14, RLR #19
The highest scoring draft-eligible CHL defenseman this year, Ceci is yet another pick from Ottawa’s backyard, the OHL’s 67s.  This is the third time Bryan Murray has drafted a 67, following in the footsteps of last year’s Shane Prince and 2009’s Corey Cowick.  A three-year veteran in the OHL, Ceci played internationally for Canada’s U-18 team in 2010-11 and was a late cute for this year’s World Junior roster.  Tim Murray said Ceci was in their top-five.
ISS’ scouting report: they list his size/strength, skating, puck skills, shot, defensive play, and hockey sense as Very Good, his offensive play as Excellent, and his physical play and competitiveness as Good.  They write that his strenghts are his vision on the puck, a heavy/accurate shot, quick feet and can jump into the play, and smart own zone play.  “Weaknesses: Physical play & Aggressiveness low in zone. Skill: Excellent all-around game while showing intelligent/creative plays on both sides of the puck. Scouting Report: Cody plays a dynamic two way game. He continually shows his ability to shutdown the opposition using his speed and smarts. This season he showcased his superior offensive talents where he quarterbacked the Ottawa 67’s offense. Cody has shown strengths on both sides of the puck from anticipation in laying the big hit and awareness in rushing the puck up ice. Ceci has tons of confidence on the backend and although being able to shutdown top opponents he has definitely added a high risk, high reward aspect to his game. When he keeps it simple in his own end he is generally more effective. Headsy D-man with tremendous upside. Possesses the right attitude to continue to develop his game. NHL Potential: Big time Upside – top 4 who can play all situations. Style compares to: Brent Burns.
TSN’s Craig Button writes: “Cody is the prototypical work horse player. He goes about the game playing in all of the important situations and at the critical times, seemingly effortless but with an incredible effectiveness and efficiency that goes unheralded but is ultimately important to winning. He plays a game that is rooted in his razor sharp attention to detail, strong positioning and an awareness of what he can do to shift the balance to his team’s favour. He does it in so many ways; eliminating opponents in defensive situations, getting the puck up the ice, either by passing or skating, jumping into the attack when required, running the power play with a combination of passing and shooting and helping kill penalties with whatever sacrifices are necessary. He possesses all of the requisite skills, physical and mental, as well as a determination to make a difference in the game in some way, shape or form. He is a coach’s dream in that when he is on the ice, the game is under control and your team has an increased chance of success.
FC’s scouting report: “STRENGTHS: Ceci’s progression this season has been outstanding. From our initial viewing at the NHL R&D to now, he may have been the one player who has grown the most all year. His mobility, with a focus on his lateral movement and acceleration, has really improved as well. There has been a big jump in Ceci’s mobility and his footwork. He looks to have added some speed to his game. Always known as a strong defense first defenseman, Ceci is now showing that he has some nteresting offensive upside. He was aggressive with the puck, skating it out of his end and either passing it off to a teammate or skating it into the offensive zone. He has one of the strongest shots in the league, both accurate and heavy. He has smart positioning in his own end. He has really improved his puck skills and is showing the ability to create offense from the back end. He has the size and strength to consistently win puck battles down low at his own end. He blocks shots and closes off passing lanes with positioning and his active stick-handling. He shows a strong anticipation for when it is time to pinch into the zone for added offensive pressure. His combination of size, mobility and puck skills make him an intriguing player. WEAKNESSES: His physicality has still not shown even though he is a six-foot-three, 210-pound defenseman. He shies away from destroying smaller opponents, which is admirable, but not if it is for a lack of aggressiveness. There is some debate as to whether his offensive skills will translate in the NHL to the points we are seeing him put up in junior as he is not overly creative or puck savvy. SCOUT QUOTE: “The big blueliners progression this season has been outstanding. From my initial viewing at the NHL R&D to now, he may be the one player who has grown the most all year.” NHL POTENTIAL: Top four two-way defenseman.”
Here’s HP’s scouting report: “Cody’s skating isn’t perfect by any means, but he moves fairly smoothly up the ice. His first few steps are far from great, but he has good overall mobility for a player his size. He generates good speed and his puck rushing ability is excellent. He’s very calm with the puck and intelligent in the decisions he makes. He reacts quickly to the movement of the puck and is extremely powerful down low. He clears the front of the net, will block shots and has great positioning. Cody’s physical game requires some explaining. He doesn’t have a mean streak and doesn’t go looking to pound opposing players enough. He separates the forward from the puck when challenged. When they try to go around him, he forces them outside fairly well, and as we mentioned earlier, his mobility allows him to stay with rushing forwards. Cody is effectively physical because he’s build so solid and is so strong, he could destroy players along the boards, but that is just not an aspect of his game he seems to get excited about. While he’s a solid defensive defenseman, he shows a lot of offensive upside as an offensive defenseman as well. Cody is the anchor on the 67’s power play and has a cannon for a shot. It comes in low and hard and is extremely effective. He moves the puck well, picking the right options with limited time to process the situation. What is really impressive, is he seems to have great instincts and recognition of when to pinch on the opposing blueline. We’ve seen him score a few goals utilizing this ability. Cody is one of the safer prospects in the draft. He has great size and is effective in every area of the game. He is one of the most NHL ready players in the draft and it should be interesting to see where he gets selected. We don’t realistically expect him to stick in the NHL until he completes at least one more year of junior, and perhaps a season in the AHL.

Chris Driedger (GL, 6’3, DOB 1994, WHL 24-12-3 2.80 .896)
Draft Rankings: ISS 3rd rnd, CSNAG #13, RLR #129, FC #155, HP #185
A slightly off-the-wall pick (only ISS had him as a third-rounder), taken shortly after Daniel Altshuller was scooped up by Carolina.  After spending last year as the back-up with Tri-City, Driedger carried the mail for Calgary this year.  He played in the U-17 tournament in 2010-11, but has no international experience this season.  There’s no question he’s going back for another year in the WHL (Pierre Dorion implied he was a project while Tim Murray said he’s extremely athletic).  George Fargher, the scout most responsible for the pick, said he thought Driedger was 3-4 years away from being NHL-ready.
Here’s ISS’ scouting report: they list all his attributes as Very Good, then write: “While Matt Murray got most of the attention for his play during the Top Prospect Game, Driedger was equally as good, if not better and should have cemented himself in the top 5 goalie talk for the draft. Driedger is already very good, but has shown incredible development in his ability to track the puck and adjust to rebounds this season. He still has a ton to learn and seems eager to put in the work to do so.
All FC’s has to say it: “A hot and cold puck stopper who shows flashes of potential; he needs to be more consistent.”
Here’s HP’s scouting report: “A big goaltender who showed some flashes of brilliance as the season progressed. Driedger split the regular season with his goaltending partner, and was able to have a fairly good season for Calgary. Driedger plays a controlled style. He is mostly a butterfly style, but has shown some good display of athleticism when required. He moves from post to post at an above average level, and has a tendency to dive when there is a quick pass being made. He has to improve on his quickness to be more effective. He has average puck tracking abilities, and must get better at looking through traffic to stop shots. He is a little slow at reacting to plays when there is a screen in front of him. One of his strengths is his rebound control. He is very good at steering shots to the corners and making sure that opponents do that get many opportunities to try to bang home a rebound. He keeps his stick active to direct those pucks away from danger. One other area of improvement would be his puck handling skills. He is not very good at moving the puck to his defensemen, and is almost a liability every time he goes behind the net to stop a dump in. Driedger still has a lot of improvements to make, but looks well on his way to potentially become a good goaltender as a pro. He certainly has the size to move up the ladder, but needs to put everything in his game together to do so.

Jarrod Maidens (C/LW, 6’0, DOB 1994, OHL 28-12-11-23)
Draft Rankings: CSNA #35, THN #38, McK #47, TSN #48, ISS #58, FC #61, HP #74, RLR #81
Had his season ended by a nasty concussion which is probably what caused him to slide down so far in the draft.  He gets a lot of flattering comparisons to other players, although it’s sometimes hard to match specific comments to the overall assessments.  He’s also someone I’d expect to be returned to junior hockey.  Pierre Dorion flat out called him a pro (meaning in the future) and said his health was fine.  Greg Royce, the scout most responsible for him, said they liked his competitiveness and projects him as a third line player.  He’s not expected to attend the development camp.
ISS’ scouting report: they list his skating, puck skills, shot, defensive play, and physical play as Very Good, his competitiveness as Excellent, and his size/strength, offensive play, and hockey sense as Good.  They give his strengths as compete level, leadership/character, defensive awareness, and accurate shot/quick hands.  They write: “Weaknesses: Continue to add strength & Mobility Skill: Very good puck handling and offensive instincts with incredible grit. Scouting Report: The kind of player that every coach wants on his team. Extremely driven, effective in all zones while being most dangerous from the hashmarks in. Unfortunately for scouts Maidens got injuried and missed the final 44 games of 2011-2012 season with Concussion like symptoms. Center with a powerful stride, excellent speed once he’s moving, and a strong heavy shot. Plays a meat and potatoes type game defensively while showing a high degree of smarts in the offensive end, knows where his teammates will be and thinks ahead of the play. Competes from start to finish. Communicates to his teammates and is a natural leader. Looking forward to seeing what he will achieve when he is healthy next season. NHL Potential: Top 6 – grit and leadership mixed with offensive upside. Style compares to: Mike Richards.”
FC’s scouting report: “A strong power centre with goal scorer’s instincts. Not a pylon but could use work on his first few steps and edge work for quick turning. Has a very deceiving skating stride that generates a very good amount of straight line speed. His shot is his biggest strength as it is pro-caliber and dangerous when he gets into the offensive zone. Uses his size to protect the puck and drive into the greasy areas for a scoring chance. He thinks the game quickly and shows solid maturity in his overall game. Wants to win and shows the work ethic and leadership to take charge and lead by example. Could use some added strength but uses what he has to battle for pucks and bring a hard forecheck. He is not a fighter but will stand up for himself and is projected to play a power forward game at the next level. His draft season was not what he wanted it to be to say the least as he struggled with concussion symptoms all year. His potential is first round worthy but injury concerns push his stock down. NHL POTENTIAL: Top six two-way forward.”
HP’s scouting report: “When Jarrod Maidens was selected 4th Overall, he was expected to be an impact player for the Attack as he developed. However up to this point it’s been a bit of a reverse role than most rookies. Due to a concussion, Jarrod was only able to participate in 28 games this season. However Maidens’ biggest moment with the Attack likely came while still in his rookie season. Jarrod scored the OHL Championship winning goal in overtime to help the Attack capture their first ever OHL Championship. Jarrod is a good skater for someone over 6 ft. tall. He rushes the puck effectively and particularly when he’s on Left Wing, he drives the wing hard, protecting the puck towards the net. He has a good shot, with a very quick release on it. While his puck protection is good and he seems to absorb contact well, showing good balance, he doesn’t seem to engage much in the physical game. His willingness to throw hits is inconsistent at best and he does take the long route to the puck, trying to win it without taking the initial hit. He has size, but overall plays a little smaller. We’d like to see him add some more muscle and physicality to his game, as he needs to be more aggressive to maximize his potential. His skating, hands and shot will make him a valuable prospect, but we feel he could drop more than his skill would suggest, due to how much hockey he missed with his concussion.”

Timothy Boyle (DR, 6’1, DOB 1993, USHS 24-6-12-18)
Draft Rankings: CSNA #208
The most enigmatic pick by the Sens.  No one has a scouting report on him, although he’s Brian Boyle‘s brother.  He’s coming off a down year at Noble & Greenborough and will be playing for Union College in the NCAA.  A long term project, it will be interesting to see what he can do at this year’s development camp (if he attends).  Pierre Dorion said they decided to draft Boyle after seeing him play with other players they were scouting and feeling he was the best player on the ice.  Tim Murray expects him to play out his collegiate career.  Bob Janecyk (the scout most responsible for him) said he was a skilled guy  who can skate and has good size.

Robbie Baillargeon (CR, 6’0, DOB 1993, USHL 54-14-34-48)
Draft Rankings: CSNA #50, ISS #69, HP #71, THN #73, RLR #76, FC #107
Another player whose stock fell during the draft, he’s coming off a strong rookie season in the USHL after dominating at Cushing Academy.  He’s scheduled to attend Boston University and much like Boyle above I’d expect him to do so.  Tim Murray implied he would play the full four years in college.
ISS’ scouting report: they list his skating, puck skills, and hockey sense as Very Good, while his shot is Good and his size/strength is Average.  They write: “A quality player that makes his teammates better. He doesn’t look like much physically, but he’s a real playmaker who is a couple of steps ahead of everyone else out there. Although he has not set the USHL scoring charts on fire, he was able to showcase good offensive potential for the next level. He is creative and skilled enough to execute in difficult circumstances. He is not strong and that does force him to rely on his skating and stick skills too heavily.”
FC’s scouting report: “A fleet footed offensive minded forward. His feet generate good speed and are able to make lateral cuts very quickly. His skating ability and soft, creative hands adds considerably to his ability to produce offensive chances for his line. Reads the game well with strong anticipation and vision. Makes strong, crisp passes and has the moves to beat defenders and goalies one-on-one. His shot, while not overpowering by any means, is accurate and off his stick quickly. Defensively he has the ability and smart to know where his check is and what to do to close of the lane but does not always execute from lack of trying. Other times he looks like a true two-way force. His body language can be problematic as he shows his frustration playing with less skilled linemates from time to time. He will need to add considerable strength as he is often out-muscled when engaging in puck battles. Committed to Boston University. NHL POTENTIAL: Second line offensive forward.”
HP’s scouting report: “Baillergeron joined in the Indiana Ice this season and is a Boston University commit for the 2013 season. Considering he only really played secondary minutes in Indiana this season, his numbers are extremely impressive. What sticks out about Baillargeon is his entire offensive game. He can really do it all in the offensive zone. He has the ability to finesse, or to play a power game, which allows him to be very dynamic. Moreover, his high level finishing and distributing abilities while being able to make elusive plays. He is lanky right now, but is still strong on the puck. In fact, he has a very good frame to develop into. In terms of improvement, he needs to work on his first few steps. His skating is not a setback by any means, but improving the first few steps will really help him. Obviously, he must also add some strength to his frame before entering BU in 2013. His defensive play is not perfect, but has come a long way. Overall, his first USHL season has been quite impressive and with his offensive upside we won’t be surprised if he gets selected earlier than some may think.”

Francois Brassard (GL, 6’1, DOB 1994, QMJHL 20-10-3, 2.80, .905)
Draft Rankings: CSNAG #15, RLR #120, ISS 5th rnd, HP #191
One of the goaltenders brought to Ottawa prior to the draft and a local product, I have to see him as insurance in case Driedger does not turn out.  He’s projected as a backup however, so there may simply be different expectations of him from the organisation.  He will undoubtedly return to the Q next season.  Tim Murray called him a raw talent, but wasn’t nearly as effusive about him as Driedger.  Trent Mann, the scout most responsible for his selection, emphasized how much of a battler he was.
HP’s scouting report: “The back-up to Louis Domingue, Brassard saw his fair share of action this season and responded well. The first thing we noticed with Brassard is his composure when he’s between the pipes. He is very calm and that’s always a good sign coming from a young goaltender. He excels with his butterfly style and has good lateral movements. He covers the bottom of the net well with his pads even though he has a tendency to go on his knees too quick. Brassard also reads the play well and is able to follow the puck through traffic. He needs to develop his glove side a little bit more and would benefit a lot from challenging the shooters more as he plays deep in his crease. His upside is not high end at this point but his abilities, along with composure and mental toughness makes him a good flyer to take later in the draft.”

Mikael Wikstrand (DL, 6’1, DOB 1993, Allsvenskan 47-2-1-3)
Draft Rankings: CSE #23, ISS/THN #85, FC #113, HP #167, RLR #191
Continuing the trend of players who slipped down the draft, Wikstrand (I’ve seen the name spelled “Vikstrand” as well) is the token Swede for the Sens this year.  He was part of Sweden’s U-18 squad last year and spent most of this past season playing in Sweden’s tier-2 professional league.  At the moment the plan is for him to return to Mora and develop.  From the scouting reports he looks like a hit or miss prospect.  Pierre Dorion believes he’ll be on Sweden’s World Junior squad next season.  Tim Murray called him well-rounded saying he does everything well.  Vaclav Burda, the scout most responsible for his selection, emphasized his skating.  Hey and fellow scout Mikko Ruutu also liked that he was able to handle himself in the men’s league.  They want to see him work on his physicality.
ISS’ scouting report: they list his size/strength, skating, and shot as Good, while his puck skills and hockey sense are Average.  They write: “A good mobile, two-way defender that moves the puck effectively. Vikstrand accelerates well in all directions and exhudes maturity, already having played over 75 pro level games in Sweden. He stands out most in situations when he has a little bit of extra time and space to make a play, such as the PP- but proves to be capable in 5 on 5 situations as well. He has good upper body strength & battles hard along the boards & can throw the odd big hit here and there.”
FC’s scouting report: “A smart and safe two-way defenseman. Skates well with good speed and quick feet but is not overly dynamic. Has nice vision and makes strong breakout passes. Can get his point shot off quickly and on target. Defends well with an active stick and strong body positioning, closing gaps quickly and blocking off passing lanes. He does many things very well, and is a smart defensive player coupled with decent puck moving skills. However, he’s not extremely physical, and he does not possess much in the way of a high offensive upside. His cool and calm all-around game and the confidence he brings to his blueline are like what you see in a ten year veteran. Might be more ready for pro hockey than many others in this draft out of Sweden, but the upside is certainly not as high as some. He will need to add some more strength over the summer to have a shot at cracking an NHL lineup. NHL POTENTIAL: Bottom pairing two-way defenseman.”

My predictions went down in flames for the most part, although I did guess two of the seven picks and in some cases they selected players I did not think would still be available.  Here’s a review:
1-15 – I thought Hampus Lindholm would be the pick here or, in his absence, Derrick Pouliot or Olli Maatta.  Only the latter was available when the Sens picked, but they clearly had Ceci ahead of the Finnish blueliner (who was not expected to be available at this point).
3-76 I had Calle Andersson listed here, with James Melindy, Dylan Blujus, or Baillargeon as alternatives; Andersson was available as were all my alternatives except Blujus, but the Sens went with their first goaltender Dreidger
3-82 I had Esa Lindell here, but he was taken as was my alternative Mitchell Moroz; Maidens was not supposed to be available this late
4-106 I had Erik Karlsson listed here, but he was already gone; Kevin Roy was my alternative, but he too was gone; Boyle was not a player I would have guessed the Sens would pick
5-136 I had Daniel Altshuller here, but he was taken in the third round; Baillargeon was not supposed to be here (but was considered above)
6-166 I had Carter Rigby here who went undrafted; my alternative was Brassard who the Sens picked (I did not guess they would draft two goaltenders)
7-196 I had Mike McKee as the pick, but he was long gone; my alternative Zane Jones went undrafted; Wikstrand was not supposed to be available here

Looking Back at Round One of the 2012 NHL Draft

The first round is in the books and it featured a barrage of trades along with the 30 players selected.  Here I’ll take a quick look to see how I (and my sources) did in predicting tonight’s results.  The first round is the easiest one to pick, but precise predictions (player X going at #X) are almost impossible.  In the previous two drafts the best ratio has been Bob McKenzie in 2010 (6/30, I was one behind him that year and tied for first with him in 2011, going a measly 4/30).  This year has produced lower results overall (here I’m considering TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospects), ISS (International Scouting Service), THN (The Hockey News), McK (McKeen’s):
TSN 5/30
HP/FC/ISS/McK 2/30
RLR/Eye on the Sens 1/30

I didn’t include Corey Pronman’s picks from Hockey Prospectus as part of my rankings, but he wound up going 3/30.

The more important thing to look at is how many players selected to be drafted in the first round actually were.  Last year I was tied with TSN for the most selections (25/30), while in 2010 I edged him out by one (26/30).  This year Bob was once again the champ and I dropped down in the pack:
TSN 27/30
McK 26/30
RLR 25/30
Eye on the Sens/THN 24/30
ISS/FC/HP 22/30
Corey Pronman 20/30

There were no truly off-the-board selections in the sense that all players picked were considered first-rounders by at least one source. Tanner Pearson was the lowest ranked player taken, but he was not the only player with only one first-round pick (Jordan Schmaltz being the other).  Henrik Samuelsson had the second least first-round selections with two.

The highest ranked players who were not selected were Matthew Finn (considered a first-rounder by everyone), Sebastien Collberg (only a second-rounder to HP), and Pontus Aberg (only a second-rounder to TSN).  No other players are near their uniformity of ranking.

Here’s the recap of the first round (correct publications in brackets):
1. Edmonton, Nail Yakupov (everyone except HP)
2. Columbus, Ryan Murray (TSN)
3. Montreal, Alex Galchenyuk (n/a)
4. New York Islanders, Griffin Reinhart (HP, TSN)
5. Toronto, Morgan Rielly (n/a)
6. Anaheim, Hampus Lindholm (n/a)
7. Minnesota, Matt Dumba (n/a)
8. Pittsburgh (from Carolina), Derrick Pouliot (n/a)
9. Winnipeg, Jacob Trouba (THN, TSN)
10. Tampa Bay, Slater Koekkoek (n/a)
11. Washington, Filip Forsberg (n/a)
12. Buffalo, Mikhail Grigorenko (TSN, HP)
13. Dallas, Radek Faksa (FC)
14. Buffalo (from Calgary), Zemgus Girgensons (n/a)
15. Ottawa, Cody Ceci (n/a)
16. Washington, Tom Wilson (n/a)
17. San Jose, Thomas Hertl (n/a)
18. Chicago, Teuvo Teravainen (n/a)
19. Tampa Bay, Andrei Vasilevski (n/a)
20. Philadelphia, Scott Laughton (n/a)
21. Calgary (from Buffalo), Mark Jankowski (n/a)
22. Pittsburgh, Olli Maatta (n/a)
23. Florida, Mike Matheson (n/a)
24. Boston, Malcolm Subban (McK)
25. St. Louis, Jordan Schmaltz (n/a)
26. Vancouver, Brendan Gaunce (n/a)
27. Phoenix, Henrik Samuelsson (ISS)
28. New York Rangers, Brady Skjei (n/a)
29. New Jersey, Stefan Matteau (n/a)
30. Los Angeles, Tanner Pearson (n/a)

I’ll have a full recap of the draft tomorrow.

Ottawa 2012 Draft Predictions

Here follows predictions for Ottawa’s selections over the next two days.  Before getting into the specifics it’s worth looking at draft trends under Bryan Murray.  There’s not much to be drawn from the 2007 draft class given when Murray was hired, so I’ve left it out, but the four drafts since then are indicative.  First, a brief look at the picks and where they are now:

2008
1-15 Erik Karlsson (DR, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC) – NHL
2-42 Patrick Wiercioch (DL, USHL, Omaha) – AHL
3-79 Zack Smith (C/LW, WHL, Swift Current) – NHL
4-109 Andre Petersson (RW/LW, SuperElit, HV71; WJC) – AHL
4-119 Derek Grant (C/LW, BCHL, Langley) – AHL
5-139 Mark Borowiecki (DL, CJHL, Smith Falls) – AHL
7-199 Emil Sandin (RW/LW, SuperElit, Brynas) – FA (unsigned)
2009
1-9 Jared Cowen (DL, WHL, Spokane; WHC-17) – NHL
2-39 Jakob Silfverberg (C/W, SuperElit, Brynas; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
2-46 Robin Lehner (G, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC-18) – AHL
4-100 Chris Wideman (DR, NCAA, Miami) – AHL
5-130 Mike Hoffman (C/LW, QMJHL, Drummondville) – AHL
5-146 Jeff Costello (LW, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
6-160 Corey Cowick (LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – AHL
7-190 Brad Peltz (LW, USHS, Avon Old Farms) – NCAA
7-191 Michael Sdao (DL, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA
2010
3-76 Jakub Culek (C/LW, QMJHL, Rimouski; WJC-18) – AHL
4-106 Marcus Sorensen (RW, SuperElit, Sodertalje) – FA (unsigned)
6-178 Mark Stone (RW, WHL, Brandon) – AHL/NHL
7-196 Bryce Aneloski (DR, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
2011
1-6 Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, SEL, Djurgardens; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
1-21 Stefan Noesen (C/RW, OHL, Plymouth) – OHL
1-24 Matt Puempel (LW, OHL, Peterborough) – OHL
2-61 Shane Prince (C/LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – OHL/AHL
4-96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, QMJHL, Gatineau) – QMJHL/AHL
5-126 Fredrik Claesson (DL, SEL, Djurgardens, WJC-18) – AHL
6-156 Darren Kramer (C/LW, WHL, Spokane) – AHL
6-171 Max McCormick (LW, USHL, Sioux City) – NCAA
7-186 Jordan Fransoo (DR, WHL, Brandon) – WHL
7-204 Ryan Dzingel (C/LW, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA

That’s a total of 30 players, with 20 forwards, 9 defencemen, and 1 goaltender; 14 from the Canadian junior systems, 8 from the various US systems, and 8 from Sweden.  As for trends, 8 teams have had two players selected by the Senators (Frolunda, Brynas, Djurgardens, Ottawa 67s, Brandon, Spokane, Lincoln and Cedar Rapids).  In at least a few cases it seems that scouting one player has lead to the selection of another (Brandon Fransoo via Mark Stone and Bryce Aneloski via Jeff CostelloChris Wideman also played for Cedar Rapids).  The only trend among the Swedes is that most had international experience prior to being drafted and none are from the northern club teams.  Among the USHL selections (6), most have been from the West Division (Lincoln, Omaha, and Sioux City).  Of the Canadian selections 4 players have been from local teams (Mark Borowiecki, Corey Cowick, Shane Prince, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau), but are otherwise fairly spread out.  Thus far the only busts have been undersized Swedes (Emil Sandin and Marcus Sorensen).  I have to wonder if the Swedish flavour will be diminished by the absence of former scout Anders Forsberg.  The other trend is that the Sens try to make trades at the draft (be it the deal that landed Erik Karlsson in 2008, the trade to pick Michael Sdao in 2009, moving the first-rounder to get David Rundblad in 2010, or the deal that landed them Matt Puempel in 2011).

As far as what this means for this year’s draft we’ll have to wait and see, but there’s no reason to doubt that the team will make drafting blueliners and a goaltender a priority.  Ottawa has the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  I think the odds are good that the Sens will try to trade up, likely sacrificing their third-round selections in the hopes of landing a goaltender (I do not believe they will use their first-round pick on a goalie).  However, if they keep all their picks here’s my guess at the players they will select:
1-15 Hampus Lindholm (DL 6’2 SuperElit Rogle) – the Swedish blueliner has been a popular selection in mock drafts for the Sens and there’s little reason to doubt he’s part of their discussions; other players to consider are Olli Maatta (DL 6’1 OHL London) or Derrick Pouliot (DL 6’0 WHL Portland)
3-76 Calle Andersson (DR 6’2 SuperElit Malmo) – a right-handed Swedish blueliner; could also see James Melindy (DR 6’3 QMJHL Moncton), Dylan Blujus (DR 6’3 OHL Brampton), or scoring winger Robbie Baillargeon (RW 6’0 USHL Indiana)
3-82 Esa Lindell (DL 6’2 Fin Jr Jokerit) – Finnish blueliner coming off a solid WJC-18; it could also be any of the players mentioned above or power forward Mitchell Moroz (LW 6’2 WHL Edmonton)
4-106 Erik Karlsson (LW 5’11 SuperElit Frolunda) – Swedish winger; it could also be Moroz (above) or scoring winger Kevin Roy (LW 5’10 USHL Lincoln)
5-136 Daniel Altshuller (G 6’2 OHL Oshawa) – the Sens brought him to Ottawa; could also be Roy (above)
6-166 Carter Rigby (LW 6’0 WHL Kelowna) – power forward; could also be Francois Brassard (G 6’0 QMJHL Quebec), another goalie brought to Ottawa
7-196 Mike McKee (DL 6’4 USHL Lincoln) – rugged blueliner; it could also be Zane Jones (LW 6’0 WHL Victoria) a rugged winger

So, if my analysis and predictions for the draft are 100% correct in terms of who is available when (unlikely), the list looks like this:
Hampus Lindholm (D) – a Swede and a blueliner
James Melindy (D) – would fill the QMJHL quota (one player each of the last three drafts)
Mitchell Moroz – the Sens like power forwards
Erik Karlsson – undersized Swedish forward with skill (and would be another player picked from Frolunda)
Daniel Altshuller (G) – they’ve said repeatedly they will pick a goalie
Carter Rigby – yet another power forward
Mike McKee (D) – tough blueliner in the mould of Michael Sdao (and would be another player from Cedar Rapids)

Senators News: May 9th

-I’m beginning to wonder if Don Brennan gets a bonus for coming up with dumb ideas.  His latest pitch is for perennial disappointment Dustin Penner on the logic that Bryan Murray signed him out of college.  It’s an idle rumour and pure nonsense (Nicholls puts far too much effort into taking the idea seriously), but I do get a masochistic enjoyment out of Brennan.

Kurt Kleinendorst has decided to move on from the Ottawa organisation.  Kleinendorst clearly wants to be an NHL head coach and that isn’t a possibility with the Senators.  Speculation has assistant coach Steve Stirling taking over in Binghamton.  The always classy Kleinendorst had nothing but good things to say about the organisation, “It’s just a personal decision on my part. It’s one I’ve thought long and hard about. Decisions like this don’t come easy. I have nothing but good things to say about Bryan Murray and the organization, and the same is true for Binghamton. It’s been one of my nicer stops along the way. The people here are wonderful. The players that I’ve experienced for two years here have been wonderful. I get a lot of satisfaction out of my job. That’s why I do what I do, and that’s what makes it such a difficult decision. But having said that, I’ve always been one to follow my heart and my gut. This isn’t just something that I whipped up over the weekend. It’s something that I put a lot of thought into and came to this decision. The last thing I want is for anyone to feel is that it’s a Binghamton thing. I’ve told Bryan that as a young hockey player, and as a coach, this is a great place to be. The fans are passionate, and they’re educated. To get through a year like this and not have the fans come down on me, that really stood out.”

Sylvain St-Laurent speculates Andre Benoit will be signed by the Sens after spending a year in the KHL.  While Benoit confirmed he won’t return to Russia, he didn’t indicate a preference for where he would sign.

-Here’s my profile of Sens prospect Ryan Dzingel, which wraps up my prospect profiles.  Links to all of them are below.

Steve Lloyd confirms the Sens won’t sign prospect Marcus Sorensen (2010), which will make him a free agent.  He’s only the third Murray draft pick whose rights have been released (Emil Sandin (2008) and Ruslan Bashkirov (2007) are the others).

-The second round of the playoffs are nearly over and have completely lacked drama.  I’m now fully on board for a Phoenix Cup win just to see Gary Bettman hand the trophy to himself in June.  While the NHL may be pleased if the Rangers join LA in moving on to the Conference Finals, I don’t think the third round is going to make anyone outside the city’s in question tune in.

-Complete prospect profiles (Dzingel is above):
2007
Ben Blood (signed)
2009
Jakob Silfverberg (signed)
Chris Wideman (signed)
Jeff Costello
Brad Peltz
Michael Sdao
2010
Jakub Culek (must be signed or becomes a free agent)
Marcus Sorensen (rights to be released)
Mark Stone (signed)
Bryce Aneloski
2011
Mika Zibanejad (signed)
Stefan Noesen (signed)
Matt Puempel (signed)
Shane Prince
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Fredrik Claesson
Darren Kramer
Max McCormick
Jordan Fransoo

Prospect Profile: Jordan Fransoo

Jordan Fransoo (D-R, 6’2, DOB 1993, 7-186/11)
2009-10 SMHL Saskatoon Con 42-11-20-31 56pim (ppg 0.73) 2nd d-pts
2010-11 WHL Brandon 63-6-12-18 +4 72pim (ppg 0.28) 4th
2011-12 WHL Brandon/Victoria 71-3-18-21 -2 45pim (ppg 0.29) 2nd

An off-the-radar pick by the Sens (no one listed him), Fransoo was a teammate of fellow Senators draft pick Mark Stone, but was traded this year to Victoria mid-season.  He improved slightly on his point totals, but Fransoo is seen more of a shutdown defender.  He will return to the WHL next year to continue developing his game.  Quality scouting reports on him are lacking, but Hockey’s Future says “the Senators staff like his competitive level and tall frame, which should fill out as he matures. As with most late-round picks there is much uncertainty. Fransoo‘s work ethic and desire to succeed are both plusses. More of a defensive defenseman, he has shown the ability to contribute on the scoresheet.”  Here’s Sens scout Bob Lowes talking about Fransoo (2:20 onward), where he emphasizes his work ethic.  Here’s Fransoo in a fight and here’s Victoria coach Marc Habscheid briefly talking about his acquisition (2:53-3:03).

Prospect Profile: Max McCormick

Max McCormick (LW, 5’11, DOB 1992, 6-171/11)
2009-10 USHS Notre Dame 29-38-37-75 (ppg 2.58) 1st pts
2010-11 USHL Sioux City 55-21-21-42 +6 102pim (ppg 0.76) 4th all-star
2011-12 NCAA Ohio 27-10-12-22 -6 31pim (ppg 0.81) t-3rd all-rookie

The former Wisconsin Mr. Hockey winner (ranked #161 by Central Scouting) enjoyed a strong if injury-plagued rookie season with Ohio State (he was named to the CCHA all-rookie team).  McCormick is a well-rounded player with a physical edge.  Playing with fellow Senator draft pick Ryan Dzingel, he’s a long term prospect who will likely finish his NCAA career before turning pro.  Hockey’s Future writes “While no one of area of his game is exceptional, he plays an honest two-way game. Offensively, his shooting ability is his biggest strength, and he is also a play-maker who recognizes open areas and can distribute the puck effectively.”  Describing himself he said “My overall smarts of the game and sense of the game really got a lot better this year [10-11]. It’s a really competitive league [USHL] because everyone is trying to move on. The players are trying to move on, the coaches are trying to move on, even the refs are trying to move on. It’s really competitive and makes it a lot of fun, and it improved my game a lot.”  His Sioux City coach Luke Strand said “He has the attributes of an offensive player with speed, a good stick and the complete level to win battles and be physical“.  Here’s McCormick fighting in the USHL and here’s an interview with him after he was drafted.

Prospect Profile: Darren Kramer

Darren Kramer (C-L, 6’1, DOB 1991, 6-156/11)
2009-10 AJHL Grande Prairie 58-19-11-30 331pim (ppg 0.51) 7th pts
2010-11 WHL Spokane 68-7-7-14 +10 306pim (ppg 0.20) 18th
2011-12 WHL Spokane 71-21-19-40 +4 200pim (ppg 0.56) 7th

The unranked overage draft pick was considered the best fighter in the draft (47 majors!) and a great team guy.  The Sens sent him to Spokane for his final year of junior with instructions to work on his skills and he responded with a career best in goals and assists (reducing his fisticuffs down to 26).  There’s no doubt he will be signed and join Binghamton in the fall.  Describing himself he said, “People ask me why I do it and I say ‘if I could score 47 goals, I’d do it that way. But after you get to a certain age, you see the guys get better and spots become limited on teams. So I figured out (fighting) was something I enjoyed doing and I wasn’t too bad at it, either. I started fighting and playing an energy role. But I didn’t fight just to fight. I did it for the right reasons and tried to pick my spots properly and try to motivate the team and the crowd at times.”  His coach Don Nachbaur said “He’s been a breath of fresh air. He doesn’t wear a letter but this is a credit to him, I’d name him as one of the leaders on this hockey team and I think every guy in that locker room feels the same. He’s an intelligent player. He knows the situation. He doesn’t fight for himself. He’s the ultimate team guy, he does it for his team. I can’t think of an instance he got into a fight because some guy hit him too hard. It’s always been about the team first.”  Here’s Kramer fighting Dalton Thrower earlier this season.  Finally, I can’t help but reference Kramer’s invention (a new kind of peanut butter jar).

Prospect Profile: Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Jean-Gabriel Pageau (C/RW, 5’9, DOB 1992, 4-96/11)
2009-2010 QMJHL Gatineau 62-16-15-31 +4 20pim (ppg 0.50) 7th pts
2010-11 QMHL Gatineau 67-32-47-79 +23 22pim (ppg 1.17) 1st
2011-12 QMJHL Gat/Chicoutimi 46-32-33-65 Even 25pim (ppg 1.41) 3rd

Ottawa’s second undersized forward of the draft (after Shane Prince), Pageau was not ranked by Central Scouting, although every other scouting agency had him listed (#102 by ISS for example).  Pierre Dorion is a huge fan of Pageau‘s, who was the dominating leader for Gatineau before a trade to Chicoutimi saw a drop in his production.  Because he’s very responsible defensively, it may seem less incumbent on Pageau to score at the next level, but there aren’t many undersized checking centers.  Pageau talked about his motivation after being drafted, “You saw a lot of players (drafted) before me, good players, too, but I know I can play with them. I know there’s a lot of good players in the first round, second round, third round, but I know I can play with them. So I’m not stressed about it.” AndI think there’s good examples in the NHL [of smaller guys]. There’s small players with every team, and I believe and I hope that I’m going to be the next one. I don’t get affected [by] people always saying you’re too small [and] not strong enough – I work hard to get stronger so I’m not afraid of that“.  There’s little reason to doubt that he will be signed, although another year of junior hockey is a possibility.  The Hockey News said, “Hardworking and very talented, size is an obvious handicap”, while Red Line Report saidAnother midget with 2nd round skills, but no size.”  Here’s Pageau in a rare fight and here he is scoring a goal.

Prospect Profile: Shane Prince

Shane Prince (C-L, 5’10, DOB 1992, 2-61/11)
2009-10 OHL Kitchener/Ottawa 65-15-15-30 -2 45pim (ppg 0.50) 8th
2010-11 OHL Ottawa 59-25-63-88 +43 18pim (ppg 1.49) 2nd
2011-12 OHL Ottawa 57-43-47-90 +34 12pim (ppg 1.57) 2nd

The intense Prince was picked by the Senators at the end of the second round (ranked #26 by Central Scouting).  He followed up his breakout season last year with a strong campaign this year (the 67s are still in the playoffs), although he did not make the US World Junior Championship team.  He’ll likely be signed and join Binghamton in the fall.  As an undersized forward, it will be interesting to see how his game translates at the pro level.  Red Line Report was a big fan, saying, “We love everything about him – except his inability to stay healthy.  Plays much bigger than his mediocre size; edgy player who isn’t afraid to stick his nose in – very competitive and smart.  Biggest concern in his penchant for carrying the puck into traffic without regard for his body – takes some big hits to make plays but also ended up with a bum shoulder and a head/neck injury late in the season.  Has terrific speed and is an agile, elusive skater.  Makes imaginative passes at top end gear – excellent vision and playmaking skills.  Team catalyst has tremendous work ethic.  Blocks a ton of shots on the PK unit and starts dangerous rushes the other way, transitioning from defence to offence in a heartbeat.  His team was one of the OHL’s best with him in the lineup, and couldn’t win a game when he was out injured.”  ISS said, “Prince hasn’t enjoyed a lot of the same hype that fellow OHLer Ryan Strome has even while eclipsing him in the scoring column for part of the season. The reason for this is that scouts believe Prince‘s stronger supporting cast is amplifying his skill set and that without this he doesn’t project as well. Ranked much higher at CSS, however ISS scouts have not been impressed by Prince’s production away from his star teammate Tyler Toffoli. Prince is the big risk/reward!” All his skills were listed as very good except his size/strength which is “average”.  Here’s Prince being drafted and here’s a highlight package.