Ottawa Senators-New York Rangers Playoff Preview: The Numbers

I’ve already posted my prediction for this series (link), where I included some of the basic numbers of both teams, but I think it’s worth going into greater depth with the numbers.  First, a review of those basic numbers (keep in mind, the Rangers had a better record so they should dominate most categories):

New York Rangers (51-24-7)-Ottawa Senators (41-31-10)
2nd (overall)/1st (east)-16th (overall), 8th (east)
Home Record: 27-12-2 (NYR, 7th), 20-17-4 (Ott, 24th)
Road Record: 24-12-5 (NYR, 3rd), 21-14-6 (Ott, 7th)
Season series: Ottawa 3-1-0/Rangers 1-2-1
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 (NYR), 4-6-0 (Ott)
Winning % Outshot: .556 (NYR, 11th), .533 (Ott, 14th)
Goals For: 249 (Ott, 5th), 226 (NYR, 13th)
Goals Against: 187 (NYR, 3rd), 240 (Ott, 24th)
Powerplay: 18.2% (Ott, 11th), 15.7% (NYR, 23rd)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (NYR, 5th), 81.6% (Ott, 20th)
Times Shorthanded: 260 (12th), 310 (28th)
Faceoffs: 50.1% (Ott, 16th), 50% (NYR, 18th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.14 (NYR, 6th), 1.05 (Ott, 11th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.8 (NYR, 6th), 32.0 (Ott, 29th)
Injuries: Regin (indefinitely), Carkner (day-to-day); Zuccarello (indefinitely), Sauer (concussion), Eminger (day-to-day)

There’s not much that’s unexpected in the basic numbers–Ottawa scores more, the Rangers give up fewer goals.  The overall faceoff numbers are a wash and special teams essentially cancel each other out.  The Sens take too many penalties, but that’s less relevant in the playoffs when fewer calls are made.  While the Sens give up more shots than the Rangers, they have a better record when outshot so that too is largely irrelevant.  Both teams were excellent on the road.  The Senators have a healthy roster, while the Rangers are a bit short on the blueline.

General Player Comparisons (keep in mind that official tracking of hits, blocked shots, etc have to be taken with a grain of salt)
TOI leader (blueline): Karlsson (25:19); Girardi (26:14)
TOI leader (forward): Spezza (19:55); Callahan (21:02)
Faceoff % leaders: Konopka (58.9), Winchester (53.6), Spezza (53.5); Dubinsky (51.9), Richards (51.8), Boyle (51.8)
Faceoffs taken leaders: Spezza (1700), Smith (990), Turris (723); Richards (1316), Boyle (1215), Stepan (867)
Powerplay goal leaders: Spezza/Michalek (10); Callahan (13)
Powerplay goals by defensemen: 12 (Ott); 3 (NYR)
Shorthanded goals: Alfredsson (3); Hagelin/Prust (2)
Game Winning goals: Karlsson (5); Callahan/Richards (9)
Shot leaders: Karlsson (261), Spezza (232), Michalek (212); Gaborik (276), Callahan (235), Richards (229)
Plus/Minus leader (blueline): Kuba (+26); McDonagh (+25)
Plus/Minus leader (forward): Alfredsson (+16); Hagelin (+21)
Hits (forward): Neil (271), Foligno (196), Greening (189); Callahan (271), Boyle (236), Dubinsky (207)
Hits (defense): Cowen (217), Phillips (134), Karlsson (60); Girardi (236), Del Zotto (156), McDonagh (118)
Blocked shots: Kuba (149), Phillips (137), Gonchar (115); Girardi (185), McDonagh (182), Del Zotto (95)
Giveaways: Karlsson/Spezza (84); Girardi (61)
Takeaways: Karlsson (67); Callahan/Stepan (51)
PIM leaders: Konopka (193), Neil (178), Foligno (124); Prust (156), Dubinsky (110), Bickel (108)
Corsi Quality Competition (playing against the best) Defense: Kuba, Karlsson, Gonchar; McDonagh, Girardi, Del Zotto
Corsi Quality Competition Forwards: Turris, Greening, Michalek; Callahan, Richards, Dubinsky
Corsi Quality Competition (playing against the worst) Defense: Carkner, Cowen, Phillips; Bickel, Stralman, Staal
Corsi Quality Competition Forwards: O’Brien, Neil/Winchester; Rupp, Mitchell, Prust
Playoff Experience (forwards expected to play): 293 (Ott); 298 (NYR)
Playoff Experience (defense expected to play): 250 (Ott); 59 (NYR)
Playoff Experience (starting goaltenders): 6 (Ott); 35 (NYR)

Paul MacLean has used his players more evenly than Tortorella, with the latter largely dependent on his top three lines and top four defensemen.  The Sens have a distinctive edge in faceoffs player by player, although Spezza takes a disproportionate amount of Ottawa’s draws.  For all the accolades about the Rangers blocking shots it’s clear that their top pairing are the ones largely responsible for it.  In terms of playoff experience the only significant edge is on the blueline, where Ottawa has a clear advantage (I don’t think the experience difference between goaltenders means as much because Anderson has played in the league for a long time).

Defensemen (compared by TOI)
Karlsson (81-19-58-78 +16 25:19)-Girardi (82-5-24-29 +13 26:14)
Kuba (73-6-26-32 +26 23:36)-McDonagh (82-7-25-32 +25 24:44)
Gonchar (74-5-32-37 -4 22:15)-Del Zotto (77-10-31-41 +20 22:26)
Phillips (80-5-14-19 +12 19:06)-Staal (46-2-3-5 -7 19:53)
Cowen (82-5-12-17 -4 18:53)-Stralman (53-2-16-18 +9 17:05)
Gilroy (67-3-17-20 +2 17:30)-Bickel (51-0-9-9 +2 10:26)

The Sens, if they stay healthy, have the edge on the blueline.  The Rangers are overly dependent on their top-four and have no room for error if one of them struggles or gets injured.  Ottawa also has a much more offensively productive blueline.

Forwards (compared by TOI)
Spezza (80-34-50-84 +11 19:55)-Callahan (76-29-25-54 -8 21:02)
Michalek (77-35-25-60 +4 19:33)-Richards (82-25-41-66 -1 20:15)
Alfredsson (75-27-32-59 +16 18:56)-Gaborik (82-41-35-76 +15 19:30)
Turris (55-12-17-29 +10 16:51)-Stepan (82-17-34-51 +14 18:56)
Greening (82-17-20-37 -4 15:35)-Dubinsky (77-10-24-34 +16 16:16)
Foligno (82-15-32-47 +2 14:38)-Anisimov (79-16-20-36 +12 15:24)
Condra (81-8-17-25 +11 14:09)-Boyle (82-11-15-26 +2 15:14)
Smith (81-14-12-26 +4 14:04)-Hagelin (64-14-24-38 +21 15:02)
Neil (72-13-15-28 -10 12:47)-Fedotenko (73-9-11-20 -7 13:35)
O’Brien (28-3-3-6 +6 11:45)-Prust (82-5-12-17 -1 11:56)
Daugavins (65-5-6-11 -2 11:19)-Mitchell (63-5-11-16 +10 10:09)
Winchester (32-2-6-8 +2 10:38)-Rupp (60-4-1-5 -1 6:38)

The Rangers have a slight physical edge with their forward group, but otherwise I don’t see a distinct advantage either way.

Goaltenders
Anderson (63-33-22-6 2.84 .914 TOI 3492:18)-Lundqvist (62-39-18-5 1.97 .930 TOI 3753:30)
Bishop (10-3-3-2 2.48 .909 TOI 531:39)-Biron (21-12-6-2 2.46 .904 TOI 1220:01)

Lundqvist is a better goaltender–there’s no argument to be made that he isn’t–but he hasn’t brought that talent to the playoffs yet and for whatever reason Ottawa has enjoyed success against him (recently and historically).  There’s no real alternative for the Rangers if Lundqvist gets hurt or struggles, whereas the Sens have confidence in both Bishop and Lehner.

Take the numbers for what they’re worth.  Hockey is a game of emotion and momentum and it’s hard to predict.  In Ottawa’s favour is that winning either of the first two games is a bonus–all the pressure is on the heavily favoured Rangers.  It’s already been a successful season for the Senators and whereas anything other than a long playoff run would be a disappointment for New York.

April 11, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: April 11th

-Here’s my playoff preview, with a more detailed look at Ottawa’s series to come.  Like most of the experts I haven’t picked many upsets (going by the overall standings I’ve only picked one in the first round; my Cup prediction takes a hit as the Bruins have reported Nathan Horton will miss the entire post-season).

–Jason Spezza talks about the upcoming series, “They’re a team that tries to play similar to how we try to play, a physical up-tempo game. We’ll try to get pucks behind them, we want to be on the offence. That makes it an easier game for us. They’re a team we’ve looked at all year and tried to play similar to, because we respect them and think they play the game the right way. We feel we play the game the right way, too so that’s why we think it can be a good series.”  Chris Phillips said, “The biggest thing, is not playing defence. Get the puck quickly and we’re moving it to a teammate, or a forward, if we have it and we’re skating out of the zone. Get to the puck first, be hard on them and make good plays.”

-TSN’s playoff preview show was last night and it was a welcome relief after the nonsense of Sportsnet‘s preview on the weekend.  Like most prognosticators the panel favoured Pittsburgh to win the Cup.

-Sens bloggers are taking their kick at the cat for predictions, with The Silver Seven dragging it out as much as possible with articles separated by position.  Unfortunately, there’s not much statistical information used to back up what’s said and their opinions are all over the map, so I can’t recommend the series.  Neither 6th Sens nor Senshot have posted their previews yet, while Jeremy Milks at Black Aces has only written about John Tortorella.  Sens Chirp offers his opinion, but there’s no data behind it, just his gut feel.  Travis Yost spent a few minutes looking at the numbers and includes something I hadn’t read before–Ottawa has a career winning record against Lundqvist (11-12-2).  Normally there’s not much stock in career numbers against a team, but some of the Senators core has been around as long as the Ranger goaltender.

–Sports Illustrated and TSN‘s power rankings are out with Ottawa 14th and 10th (Pittsburgh is 1st in both).  Adrian Dater writes, “A preseason poll of the league’s pundits probably would have found about five  percent of them predicting that this team would make the playoffs. But here are  the Senators, thanks to solid coaching by Paul MacLean, great years from Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza, and some strong goaltending from Craig Anderson. This  team is big and it can skate, but it’s probably not deep enough for a deep  playoff run.”

–Joy Lindsay Tweets Binghamton’s lines at practice: Dziurzynski-Cannone-Petersson, Hoffman-Zibanejad-Downing, Schneider-Da Costa-Parrish, Puempel-Grant-Bartlett/Lessard; Borowiecki-Schira, Blood-Conboy, Wiercioch-Gryba.

–Jeremy Roenick is another commentator who calls the Penguins whiners (if you watch the Sportsnet intro video for the story, critics of Crosby and Malkin are called whiners by the host–classy!).

April 11, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

2012 Playoff Preview

With the matchups set prognosticators around the hockey world are gauging the auguries and making feverish calculations on their abacuses, here are my thoughts on round one.  A few points before I get into the specific series:
1. Team’s rarely repeat Cup runs; the classic exceptions are Detroit and Pittsburgh (08 and 09), but all other finalists since the lockout have failed early (Carolina and Edmonton to make the playoffs; only Philadelphia moved as far as the second round)
2. The Cup winner has been no lower than 8th overall in the NHL (Carolina and Anaheim were 4th, Detroit 1st, Pittsburgh 8th, Chicago 3rd, and Boston 7th), which means while the President’s Trophy is largely meaningless, a team must be among the best to win it all (following this formula the potential Cup winners are Vancouver, the Rangers, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Philadelphia, Boston, and Detroit)
3. Playoff experience is something that gets thrown around as a vital ingredient over and over again, but I’ve never seen actual data to show that it equals success (for recent Cup winners it works with Boston, but not Chicago)–if it was a vital criteria than Detroit should win the Cup every year
4. The idea that teams need to lose before they win is simply absurd–29 teams lose every year, so other than the Cup winner it’s axiomatic for everyone
5. The officiating will be awful (Ottawa favourites Dan O’Rourke, Kevin Pollock and Tim Peel have made it into the playoffs, while Greg Kimmerly is on standby and Dean Morton didn’t make it); calls will be missed and bad calls will be made (including goals reviewed)

New York Rangers (2nd)-Ottawa (16th)
Season series: Ottawa 3-1-0/Rangers 1-2-1
Goals For: 249 (Ott, 5th), 226 (NYR, 13th)
Goals Against: 187 (NYR, 3rd), 240 (Ott, 24th)
Powerplay: 18.2% (Ott, 11th), 15.7% (NYR, 23rd)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (NYR, 5th), 81.6% (Ott, 20th)
Faceoffs: 50.1% (Ott, 16th), 50% (NYR, 18th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.14 (NYR, 6th), 1.05 (Ott, 11th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.8 (NYR, 6th), 32.0 (Ott, 29th)

Conventional wisdom says good defence beats good offence and if that holds true than the Rangers should beat Ottawa.  There are, however, examples that run against that wisdom with the Rangers, who have lost in that same situation to Washington twice (in 09 and 11).  The Senators don’t have the firepower of those Capital teams, but that and their season series record does provide some hope.  The Sens have more offensively depth, while the Rangers have an edge in physical forwards.  All the pressure is on New York and a loose and healthy Ottawa team could take the series.  I feel like the Rangers’ problems scoring will prove to be their achilles heel.  Ottawa in seven.

Boston (7th)-Washington (15th)
Season Series: Boston 1-2-1/Washington 3-1-0
Goals For: 269 (Bos, 2nd), 222 (Wsh, 15th)
Goals Against: 202 (Bos, 5th), 230 (Wsh, 18th)
Powerplay: 17.2% (Bos, 15th), 16.7% (Wsh, 18th)
Penalty Kill: 83.5% (Bos, 11th), 81.6% (Wsh, 21st)
Faceoffs: 54.5% (Bos, 1st), 50% (Wsh, 17th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.32 (Bos, 3rd), 1.01 (Wsh, 13th)
Shots Against Per Game: 29.8 (Bos, 13th), 30.2 (Wsh, 16th)

Boston has all the numbers in this series and should win, but the crazy thing about Washington is that they have enough talent to pull off an upset (they won the season series, for instance).  The Caps are down to their third goalie however, and if the Bruins can stay healthy they should beat the Capitals.  Boston in six.

Florida (14th)-New Jersey (9th)
Season Series: Florida 2-1-1/New Jersey 2-2-0
Goals For: 228 (NJ, 11th), 203 (Flo, 25th)
Goals Against: 209 (NJ, 8th), 227 (Flo, 17th)
Powerplay: 18.5% (Flo, 7th), 17.2% (NJ, 14th)
Penalty Kill: 89.6% (NJ, 1st), 79.5% (Flo, 25th)
Faceoffs: 50.6% (Flo, 11th), 47.1% (NJ, 29th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 0.93 (NJ, 19th), 0.88 (Flo, 25th)
Shots Against Per Game: 26.8 (NJ, 2nd), 30.5 (Flo, 18th)

A statistical mismatch is almost everyway the one advantage the Panthers have (their powerplay) won’t be much of a factor given how rarely the Devils are penalized.  Brodeur has been slowing down for years and hasn’t been good in the playoffs post-lockout, but I’m not a fan of Theodore and think he’ll out play him.  While the Panthers did win the season series, I’d be shocked if they beat New Jersey.  Jersey in five.

Pittsburgh (4th)-Philadelphia (6th)
Season Series: Philadelphia 4-2-0/Pittsburgh 2-3-1
Goals For: 282 (Pit, 1st), 264 (Phi, 3rd)
Goals Against: 221 (Pit, 12th), 232 (Phi, 21st)
Powerplay: 19.7% (Pit/Phi, 5th/6th)
Penalty Kill: 87.8% (Pit, 3rd), 81.8% (Phi, 17th)
Faceoffs: 50.4% (Pit, 13th), 48.3% (Phi, 24th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.17 (Pit, 5th), 1.13 (Phi, 7th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.4 (Pit, 4th), 28.4 (Phi, 7th)

Two of the highest scoring teams in the league, I think the Penguins have the physical edge and I expect the series to get goofy in an awful hurry.  Injuries are to be expected.  I don’t like the goaltending on either team (I’m not a fan of Fleury), but the Penguins own all the statistical edges and are healthier going into the series so they should pull it out.  Pittsburgh in seven.

Vancouver (1st)-Los Angeles (13th)
Season Series: Vancouver 2-1-1/Los Angeles 2-2-0
Goals For: 249 (Van, 4th), 194 (LA, 29th)
Goals Against: 179 (LA, 2nd), 198 (Van, 4th)
Powerplay: 19.8% (Van, 4th), 17% (LA, 17th)
Penalty Kill: 87% (LA, 4th), 86% (Van, 6th)
Faceoffs: 52.2% (Van, 3rd), 51.5% (LA, 7th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.19 (Van, 4th), 0.98 (LA, 17th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.4 (LA, 5th), 30.8 (Van, 21st)

This series comes down to defence and Jonathan Quick.  The only chance the Kings have of winning is to shut down the Canucks and have Quick win the series for them, but I think that’s unlikely.  Vancouver is strong defensively and has two goaltenders who can win games for them, minimizing the Kings’ advantage, and teams that can’t score don’t win the Cup in the post-lockout era.  Canucks in five.

St. Louis (3rd)-San Jose (12th)
Season Series: St. Louis 4-0-0/San Jose 0-4-0
Goals For: 228 (SJ, 12th), 210 (Stl, 22nd)
Goals Against: 165 (Stl, 1st), 210 (SJ, 10th)
Powerplay: 21.1% (SJ, 2nd), 16.7% (Stl, 19th)
Penalty Kill: 85.8% (Stl, 7th), 76.9% (SJ, 29th)
Faceoffs: 53.3% (SJ, 2nd), 50.4% (Stl, 14th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.34 (Stl, 2nd), 1.10 (SJ, 9th)
Shots Against Per Game: 26.7 (Stl, 1st), 28.6 (SJ, 8th)

The Blues own most of the statistical edges and dominated the Sharks in the regular season series; given San Jose’s lengthy history of playoff chokes there’s little reason to expect St. Louis to lose.  Blues in five.

Phoenix (11th)-Chicago (10th)
Season Series: Phoenix 3-1-0/Chicago 1-2-1
Goals For: 248 (Chi, 7th), 216 (Phx, 17th)
Goals Against: 204 (Phx, 7th), 238 (Chi, 22nd)
Powerplay: 15.2% (Chi, 26th), 13.6% (Phx, 29th)
Penalty Kill: 85.5% (Phx, 8th), 78.1% (Chi, 27th)
Faceoffs: 50.6% (Chi, 12th), 50.2 (Phx, 15th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.11 (Phx, 8th), 1.01 (Chi, 14th)
Shots Against Per Game: 28.6 (Chi, 9th), 31.6 (Phx, 28th)

Two teams with underwhelming goaltending, it’s a good offence against a good defence.  I think the dynamic of the series changes if Toews is able to play, but even without their captain the intangibles go to the Hawks.  Chicago in six.

Nashville (5th)-Detroit (8th)
Season Series: 3-3-0
Goals For: 248 (Det, 6th), 237 (Nsh, 8th)
Goals Against: 203 (Det, 6th), 210 (Nsh, 9th)
Powerplay: 21.6% (Nsh, 1st), 16.1% (Det, 22nd)
Penalty Kill: 83.6% (Nsh, 10th), 81.8% (Det, 18th)
Faceoffs: 51.6% (Det, 6th), 49.0% (Nsh, 22nd)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.44 (Det, 1st), 1.05 (Nsh, 10th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.0 (Det, 3rd), 30.8 (Nsh, 20th)

A difficult series to call and it has to be kept in mind that Rinne has played 73 games this season (!).  A physical Nashville team could wear down Detroit, but ultimately I think goaltending is going to be the key and assuming Rinne still has gas left in the tank the edge has to go to the Predators.  Nashville in seven.

The second round would look like this:
Boston–Ottawa
The Bruins have the Sens number and Ottawa will be gased after beating the Rangers.  Boston in five.
Pittsburgh–New Jersey
An emotionally drained and physically exhausted Penguin team will be stymied by their boring opponent (who will likely employ the box-out strategy the Habs used to beat the Penguins two years ago).  New Jersey in six.
Vancouver–Chicago
Yet another rematch between the two teams, the edge goes to the Canucks if they are healthy.  Vancouver in six
St. Louis–Nashville
Eventually a team has to score goals and I think the punchless Blues will suffer due to their lack of offence.  Nashville in six.

The third round:
Boston–New Jersey
The Devils don’t match up well against the Bruins at all and will be run out of the rink.  Boston in five.
Vancouver–Nashville
The Canucks are going to be beaten up (emotionally and physically) and will run out of gas.  Nashville in seven.

Cup final:
Boston–Nashville
An interesting match-up in many ways, but the Bruins will be healthier and they’ve been here before.  Boston in five.

April 10, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

Senators News: April 10th

-Like everyone else I made pre-season predictions and it’s time to look at how I did.  I kept my prognostication to the Eastern Conference (with publications cited alongside me, McK=McKeens, THN=The Hockey News), with their actual positions in bold:

1. Washington (McK 1st, THN 1st, TSN 1st) 8th
2. Boston (McK 4th, THN 3rd, TSN 3rd) 2nd
3. Philadelphia (McK 8th, THN 4th, TSN 4th) 5th
4. Pittsburgh (McK 3rd, THN 2nd, TSN 2nd) 4th
5. Buffalo (McK 2nd, THN 6th, TSN 6th) 9th
6. Tampa Bay (McK 6th, THN 5th, TSN 5th) 10th
7. Montreal (McK 5th, THN 9th, TSN 8th) 15th
8. New York Rangers (McK 7th, THN 7th, TSN 7th) 1st
9. Carolina (McK 11th, THN 10th, TSN 11th) 12th
10. New Jersey (McK 10th, THN 12th, TSN 9th) 6th
11. Toronto (McK 9th, THN 8th, TSN 10th) 13th
12. Winnipeg (McK 14th, THN 13th, TSN 12th) 11th
13. Ottawa (McK 15th, THN 15th, TSN 15th) 8th
14. New York Islanders (McK 11th, THN 11th, TSN 13th) 14th
15. Florida (McK 13th, THN 14th, TSN 14th) 3rd

So I was exactly right with three of my predictions (Boston, Pittsburgh, and the Islanders), and picked 5 of 8 playoff teams.  My biggest error was the Florida Panthers.  How does that compare to the publications?  Here’s the breakdown (exact/playoff teams):
Eye on the Sens 3/5
TSN 0/5
THN 0/5
McKeens 0/5

All of us only predicted five of the Eastern playoff teams, each predicting Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the New York Rangers correctly. McKeens had Florida highest at 13th, while I had Ottawa highest at 13th, and TSN picked New Jersey to be 9th.

–Katie Strang and Allen Panzeri predict the Sens will lose to the Rangers in seven, while Scott Cullen predicts the Rangers to win in six.

–Zack Smith talked about the biggest lesson learned during Binghamton’s Calder Cup run, “I learned that you have to control your emotions a lot better, too. It’s a seven-game series and you can’t get carried away.”

–ESPN‘s power rankings are out with Ottawa 16th (“Every season there’s a team that exceeds everyone’s regular-season expectations, and the playoffs come as a nice bonus. That’s Ottawa this year; there were few better stories in the NHL. Now the Senators need to prove they’re not just happy to be here. That they’re still hungry to prove more“).

-Elmira won 4-2 last night to eliminate Reading and move on to the next series.  Brian Stewart got the win, while Corey Cowick scored twice and Jack Downing picked up an assist.

-Prospect updates for those still playing (their position in team scoring is noted in brackets, defence compared to defence):
CHL
Stefan Noesen (C/RW, Plymouth, OHL) 6-7-7-14 (1st) (injured; Plymouth trails Saginaw 2-1)
Shane Prince (C/LW, Ottawa 67s, OHL) 8-6-4-10 (2nd) (67′s tied 1-1 with Barrie)
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, Chicoutimi, QMJHL) 6-2-6-8 (3rd) (Chicoutimi is tied 1-1 with Shawinigan)
Darren Kramer (C/LW, Spokane, WHL) 7-3-3-6 (4th) (Spokane is tied 1-1 with Tri-City)
Mark Stone (RW, Brandon, WHL) 7-2-4-6 (2nd) (Brandon is down 0-2 to Edmonton)
Jakub Culek (C/LW, Rimouski, QMJHL) 6-2-3-5 (8th) (Rimouski is tied 1-1 with Blainville-Boisbriand)
SEL
Jakob Silfverberg (C/RW, Brynas) 11-7-6-13 (1st) (Brynas plays Skelleftea in the finals)
Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, Djurgarden) 10-4-2-6 (3rd) (Djurgarden was relegated)
Fredrik Claesson (D, Djurgarden) 10-1-1-2 (3rd) (Djurgarden was relegated)
Allsvenskan
Marcus Sorensen (RW, Boras) 7-2-0-2 (12th) (Boras survived in relegation)

April 10, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: April 9th

–Kevin Sellathamby turns off his spell check and looks at the Mike Green–Erik Karlsson comparison.  It’s not something that worries me as a fan–I think Green is a more physical player, but looser defensively–but for those who are anxious for Karlsson to win the Norris it’s worth checking out.

-Here’s my review of the Sens regular season and my profile of Sens prospect Mark Stone.

–Ian Mendes provides a boatload of trivia going into the Ottawa-Ranger series.  One bit not included: seven players who won the Calder Cup with Binghamton last year are on their roster–I’m guessing that’s a record.

–Joy Lindsay Tweets that Mika Zibanejad is in Ottawa and is expected to play in Binghamton’s final two games on the weekend.

–Nicholas J. Cotsonika points out that despite the supposed parity in the NHL no team outside the top-four conference seeds has won the Cup since 1995 (New Jersey).  Post-lockout, only three #8 seeds have won (3 times in 6 years; Edmonton in 06, Anaheim 09, and Montreal in 10) and only two #7’s (Colorado in 06 and Philadelphia in 10).  Cotsonika also provides his predictions and in Ottawa’s case see’s them losing in seven games with a realistic chance of an upset.

–Chris Stevenson makes his first round predictions and picks the Sens to beat the Rangers in seven.

–Central Scouting‘s final rankings for the 2012 draft were released this morning.  CS ranks players in an odd way, with goalies separated out and European and North American players compared only to each other.

-Here’s a look at the entertainment value of each series.  Defense tends to dominate the playoffs as scoring plunges due to a lack of special teams play.  From best to worst, here are the series worth watching (Greg Wyshynski tackles the same issue and his rankings are in brackets):
1. Pittsburgh-Philadelphia (1)
Both teams hate each other, have players who play on (and over) the edge, and they both play an aggressive style
2. Nashville-Detroit (3)
While the Preds are defensive minded, they use an aggressive forecheck system and that combined with the Wings puck-possession and the teams mutual animosity should produce entertaining hockey
3. Boston-Washington (2)
This could turn into a snore-fest, but both teams have the potential to play energetic styles
4. New York Rangers-Ottawa (6)
The Sens are a loose team defensively and like to push the pace, while the Rangers will forecheck aggressively
5. Vancouver-Los Angeles (4)
The Kings play a style that makes your eyeballs bleed, but if the Canucks can push the pace it might create some excitement
6. Phoenix-Chicago (7)
The Coyotes are yet another dull team to watch, but the Hawks are a fun team to watch and might force Phoenix into something palatable
7. St. Louis-San Jose (5)
A defensive juggernaut playing a notorious playoff choker
8. New Jersey-Florida (8)
Putting the style of play aside, does anyone care about this series?  Two of the NHL’s least interesting teams

-I had the misfortune of watching Sportsnet‘s playoff preview on Saturday and have no way to get my two hours back.  It featured Scott Morrison, Damian Cox, Denis Potvin, and a bunch of other people whose opinions hold the weight of a wet paper towel.  I sometimes wonder if TSN looks as good as it does simply because of how bad Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada are.  The analysis from Sportsnet can be summed up like this: Nick Kypreos played for the Rangers, Mike Keenan coached the Rangers, Neil Smith managed the Rangers, and, er, everyone is confused by criticism of Crosby and the Penguins and theorize it can only be professional jealousy.

-Not to be out done with useless analysis, Pierre McGuire threw his hat into the ring this morning on The Team 1200 and offered the following chestnuts: 1) the Rangers previous playoff failures (referencing 09 and 11, although the Rangers haven’t made it past the second round post-lockout) were not due to Henrik Lundqvist being overplayed, 2) the Rangers playoff failures make them better suited for success this year.  If there’s logic in that I can’t find it.  Let’s use Pierre-think on Ottawa: the Sens lost in 2010 as did Craig Anderson with Colorado, therefore those failures have taught them lessons that will lead to success.  Hell, if failure leads to success then the Canucks should win the Cup, right?  No, wait, 15 teams in the playoffs this year didn’t win last year, so they will all have success!  Given how rarely teams repeat as Stanley Cup winners, suggesting failure leads to success is going to work in at least one case every year.

April 9, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Prospect Profile: Mark Stone

Mark Stone (RW, 6’2, DOB 1992, 6-178/10)
2008-09 WHL Brandon 56-17-22-39 -5 27pim (ppg 0.69) 10th pts
2009-10 WHL Brandon 39-11-17-28 +13 25pim (ppg 0.71) 9th
2010-11 WHL Brandon 71-37-69-106 +14 28pim (ppg 1.49) 1st all-star
2011-12 WHL Brandon 66-41-82-123 +45 22pim (ppg 1.86) 1st
2011-12 WJC Canada 6-7-3-10 +10 2pim (1.66) 1st

Nearing the end of a fantastic year where he finished second in scoring in the WHL (behind Brendan Shinnimin) and was a star in the World Junior Championships for Canada, Mark Stone was signed before the season began and will play in Binghamton next year.  The year he was drafted he was projected as a fourth-line player (ranked #119 by Central Scouting), with Red Line Report saying, “Big winger has nice hands, but skating issues drop him on our list.  Stride saw improvement this season, but is still a problem – heavy footed and has a short stride.  Has good hands in close and a decent passing touch, but tends to be a garbage goal scorer and we’ve only seen rare glimpses of an accurate shooting touch.  Makes accurate passes and is especially adept at finding linemates in transition. Very good at protecting the puck, but skating keeps him from being able to drive the net with authority.  Despite good size and decent strength, doesn’t use the body at all.  Tends to be a bit timid in board battles and doesn’t initiate much contact.  Progress stalled this season due to broken thumb and concussion.”  The injuries referenced by RLR played a big role in his stock falling at the draft (as did his place on a stacked Brandon team, with Stone playing third line minutes).  Hockey Futures says, “The size and hands are there as is the willingness to work the boards and get to the dirty areas. In the offensive end he has good instincts, an underrated shot and impressive passing skills. His hockey IQ is way up there and his anticipation allows him to get in good position on both ends of the ice. The one noticeable weakness is his choppy stride which he’s working on and has spent time with the Ottawa skating coach improving his foot-speed. Smart on the ice and well-spoken off of it, Stone has the talent, intensity and work ethic to get himself to the NHL in time.”  Here’s Stone being interviewed after scoring the OT winner at this year’s rookie tournament, and here’s a goal from the World Junior Championships.

April 9, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

Ottawa Senators: 2011-12 Regular Season Review

The Ottawa Senators finished 16th in the NHL with a 41-31-10 record for 92 points, which represents an 18-point (and 9 win) improvement over last year when they were 26th in the league.  The team was 5th in scoring (57 more goals than previous season), 24th in goals against (only a ten goal improvement from last year; they had the worst GA among playoff teams, but only 2 goals behind Chicago), 14th in goal differential (10th in team plus/minus and 2nd on the road), 11th on the powerplay, 20th in penalty-killing, 11th in 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio, 9th in shots per game, 29th in shots allowed, and 16th in faceoffs.  Finally, the Sens had the 7th best road record in the league (21-14-6) and were 5th in the league in fighting majors.  All of this was accomplished with the 26th highest payroll (Nashville was the only playoff team with a lower number at 27th).

Back in October, I made my prediction and thought the Sens would finish 13th in the conference.  While I correctly predicted that they would have a rough start, it did not last long and I didn’t guess that Ottawa would ride their offence to success.  Ottawa’s lineup from the start of the season changed radically, with Nikita Filatov back in the KHL, Mika Zibanejad loaned back to Djurgarden, David Rundblad traded to Phoenix, Stephane Da Costa sent down to Binghamton, Brian Lee traded to Tampa, and Peter Regin missing most of the season due to injury.  Players like Kaspars Daugavins and Kyle Turris rounded out the lineup while the team’s veterans enjoyed bounce back seasons.  As Scott Cullen points out, the Sens were a .500 team (13-13-4) prior to the acquisition of Turris, with Ottawa going 28-18-6 after his acquisition.  The Sens season has been a complete success.

Throughout the year I’ve posted ten-game segments looking at how the Sens performed, so here’s a brief recap of the season that was:
The first ten games the Sens were 5-5-0 with Spezza, Michalek, and Karlsson leading the way and the Zibanejad experiment over
The second segment Ottawa was 5-4-1 with Karlsson, Michalek, and Foligno leading the way
The third ten game segment the Sens were 3-4-3 with Foligno, Spezza, and Alfredsson leading the way and the Filatov and Da Costa experiments over
The fourth segment Ottawa was 7-2-1 with Spezza, Alfredsson, and Karlsson leading the way and Rundblad traded for Turris
The fifth ten game segment the Sens were again 7-2-1 with Spezza, Turris, and Karlsson leading the way
The sixth segment Ottawa was a season worst 3-5-2 with Spezza, Alfredsson, and Karlsson leading the way
The seventh ten game segment the Sens were 6-3-1 with Karlsson, Michalek, and Spezza leading the way; Lee traded for Gilroy; Bishop acquired
The eighth and final segment the Sens were 5-4-1 with Alfredsson, Spezza, and Michalek leading the way

Here’s a look at how player performed throughout the season with my analysis and a grade for each player (A=outstanding season, B=above expectations, C=expectations met, D=below expectations, F=well below expectations), for players who played in the minors or other organisations, I’m only looking at how they did with Ottawa (TOI=time on ice, FO%=faceoff percentage, INJ=games missed due to injury, SCR=scratched, FM=fighting majors):
Jason Spezza 80-34-50-84 +11 TOI 19:55 FO% 53.5 INJ 2 Grade A
Lead the team in scoring and enjoyed his most productive campaign since 07-08 (finishing 4th in league scoring), managing to stay healthy throughout the season; this is the player the organisation expects year in and year out
Erik Karlsson 81-19-59-78 +16 TOI 25:19 INJ 1 Grade A
Lead the entire league in scoring from the blueline (25 points ahead of his nearest competitors, tied for the goal-scoring lead with Shea Weber, and tied for third overall among all players in assists), improved all aspects of his play and won the Norris Trophy
Milan Michalek 77-35-25-60 +4 TOI 19:33 INJ 5 Grade A
Enjoyed a career year in goals and points and was able to stay healthy throughout the season for the first time as a Senator; he’s a streaky producer, but good in all three zones
Daniel Alfredsson 75-27-32-59 +16 TOI 18:56 INJ 7 Grade A
The healthiest he’s been since 07, he enjoyed a bounce back season with his best goal-scoring output since 07-08 (he also lead the team with three short-handed goals); quietly played most of the year on the second line and remains the consummate leader of the team
Nick Foligno 82-15-32-47 TOI 14:38 +2 FM 3 Grade B
A career year in points for (including a career best in assists), but consistency remained elusive (bursts or productivity followed by long droughts); he was traded to Columbus in the off-season for Marc Methot
Colin Greening 82-17-20-37 TOI 15:35 -4 FM 4 Grade B
The big winger was the most productive rookie among the Bingo grads and his work ethic earned him a place in the top-six; does a lot of the dirty work for skilled players
Sergei Gonchar 74-5-32-37 -4 TOI 22:15 INJ 8 FM 1 Grade C
A bounce back year for the veteran, whose production is nowhere near his days with the Penguins; he does a lot of things to help the offensive flow
Filip Kuba 73-6-26-32 +26 TOI 23:36 INJ 9 Grade A
Fully healthy he returned to the form that earned him his three-year deal in 09, finishing with the team lead in plus/minus (a career high) and scoring the most goals since 07-08; he’s helped out Karlsson a lot (and vice versa); signed with Tampa in the off-season
Kyle Turris 49-12-17-29 TOI 16:51 FO% 46.8 +12 FM 1 Grade B
His most productive season to date, with career highs in goals, assists, points and plus/minus; took some of the pressure off of Spezza
Chris Neil 72-13-15-28 -10 TOI 12:47 INJ 10 FM 10 Grade C
Enjoyed his most productive season since 06-07 and tallied the most goals since 05-06; he was by far the worst minus on the team and as a veteran needs to be more responsible
Zack Smith 81-14-12-26 +4 TOI 14:04 FO% 48.9 SCR 1 FM 8 Grade B
While technically not a rookie, he played his first full season in the league and finished 7th on the team in goals despite minimal powerplay time; wasn’t consistently physical, but is more effective when he is; faded badly down the stretch
Erik Condra 81-8-17-25 +11 TOI 14:09 SCR 1 Grade B
The rookie was excellent defensively (including two short-handed goals); fantastic hockey IQ
Chris Phillips 80-5-14-19 TOI 19:06 +12 Grade C
A rebound season for the big rig who played his 1,000th career game; returned to his usual levels of production and enjoyed his best plus/minus since 07-08; he also had a career low 16 pim’s and a career high 4 powerplay goals; mental errors in his own zone remain a problem
Jared Cowen 82-5-14-19 TOI 18:53 -4 FM 2 Grade B
While the rookie slowed down considerably in the second half, he showed glimpses of what he will become in a few years; guilty of defensive lapses that should be ironed out in time
Bobby Butler 56-6-10-16 +8 TOI 11:28 INJ 6 SCR 20 Grade F
Defined sophomore slump despite not playing a full NHL season last year; couldn’t match last season’s production despite playing 20 more games and continually getting opportunities in the top-six; he was bought-out in the off-season and signed a two-way deal with New Jersey
Kaspars Daugavins 65-5-6-11 -2 TOI 11:19 INJ 1 SCR 8 Grade B
Unexpectedly earned his rookie campaign with the Sens and while his play tapered off towards the end of the season he provided intangibles for the bottom-six
Jesse Winchester 32-2-6-8 +2 TOI 10:38 FO% 53.6 INJ 50 FM 2 Grade C
Missed 50 games due to a pair of injuries; he was a plus for the first time in his career, but his production remained minimal; currently a UFA
Brian Lee 35-1-7-8 -2 TOI 14:40 INJ 11 SCR 18 FM 1 Grade F
Moved at the deadline for Gilroy, Lee was never able to establish his identity in the organisation; he resigned with Tampa
Jim O’Brien 28-3-3-6 +6 TOI 11:45 FO% 47.3 INJ 1 Grade B
Earned his call-up in February and hasn’t looked back; his defensive play and excellent skating put Konopka in the press box
Stephane Da Costa 22-3-2-5 TOI 12:09 FO% 36.9 -9 Grade D
Had a great opportunity to stick with the team at the start of the season, but wasn’t able to produce enough; needs to improve his conditioning
Zenon Konopka 55-3-2-5 -4 TOI 7:50 FO% 58.9 INJ 1 SCR 26 FM 18 Grade F
Brought in to be physical and win faceoffs, he was guilty of bad decisions defensively and taking dumb penalties; he signed with Minnesota in the off-season
Peter Regin 10-2-2-4 TOI 14:05 FO% 49.2 +3 Grade incomplete
Unable to stay healthy, his wonky shoulder required surgery again; he has great tools and was re-signed by the team
David Rundblad 24-1-3-4 -11 TOI 15:37 SCR 9 Grade C
Showed flashes of brilliance, but team needs saw him dealt for Turris; he’ll be a great player for Phoenix in time
Matt Gilroy 14-1-2-3 Even TOI 17:30 SCR 4 Grade D
Brought in as a replacement for Lee, he initially replaced Carkner in the lineup, but sloppy play saw him spend time in the press box as well; remains a UFA
Matt Carkner 29-1-2-3 Even TOI 11:54 INJ 24 SCR 24 FM 3 Grade D
Started the year injured and when he finally returned to the lineup he struggled with the speed of the game; virtually no one will fight him; signed a ridiculous deal with the Islanders
Rob Klinkhammer 15-0-2-2 Even TOI 11:26 SCR 1 Grade C
Acquired from Chicago to help Binghamton, he earned his call-up and helped keep Butler and Konopka in the press box; he signed a two-way deal with Phoenix
Nikita Filatov 9-0-1-1 +1 TOI 9:49 SCR 7 Grade D
Couldn’t impress the coaching staff and saw limited ice time before he was loaned to the KHL; he remains in Russia, but was qualified as an RFA
Mika Zibanejad 9-0-1-1 -3 TOI 12:54 Grade C
Lost his confidence and his cautious play saw him sent back to Djurgarden to avoid losing a year of his ELC
Mark Borowiecki 2-0-0-0 -1 TOI 12:29 SCR 3 Grade incomplete
Earned a call-up during a western swing for the Sens and was solid in his debut
Mike Hoffman 1-0-0-0 -1 TOI 9:01 Grade incomplete
Played well in his audtiionn
Andre Petersson 1-0-0-0 Even TOI 5:02 SCR 4 Grade incomplete
Barely played during his call-up
Craig Anderson 63-33-22-6 2.84 .914 INJ 12 Pulled 6 Grade C
Played the second-most games and earned the second-most wins of his career, but his save percentage and GAA were his lowest since 05-06; he was solid this year, but not great
Alex Auld 14-2-4-2 3.35 .884 INJ 3 SCR 4 Pulled 2 Grade F
I was one of the people who expected Auld to be awful and he produced a career worst GAA and save percentage (requiring the acquisition of Ben Bishop); he signed with EC Salzburg in Austria
Ben Bishop 10-3-3-2 2.48 .909 INJ 4 Grade C
Lost in the shuffle in St. Louis with the emergence of Brian Elliott, Bishop started on fire with Ottawa (3-0-2), but came back down to earth with three straight losses
Robin Lehner 5-3-2-0 2.01 .935 Grade B
He has been brilliant in limited action with the Sens; the most athletic of the four goalies

Looking at performances as a whole, four players enjoyed career years (Karlsson, Michalek, Foligno, and Turris), while all the veterans who struggled last year had at least average seasons if not better (only Auld had a career worst year).  None of the key players were out with extended injuries and the players who struggled were either rookies (like Da Costa) or peripheral players (like Konopka).  The team had two 30 goal-scorers, three with at least 20, but more importantly nine players with at least 12 goals, providing the scoring depth Ottawa has lacked for quite some time.  Ten rookies dressed for at least nine games or more (eleven if Lehner is included), indicating a general depth the organisation hasn’t had post-lockout.  By any measure the roster as a whole has enjoyed a fantastic season.

I made predictions for player productions throughout the summer via player profiles and here’s how I did (in many cases I offered a range of points, so to simplify things I’ve given the average; the actual results are in brackets and my close calls are in bold and my big misses are in italics):
Spezza 82 (84) -2
Alfredsson 63 (59) +4
Karlsson 50 (78) -28
Butler 50 (16) +34
Gonchar 40 (37) +3
Regin 40 (injured)
Michalek 42 (60) -18
Foligno 34 (47) -13
Kuba 33 (32) +1
Condra 30 (25) +5
Greening 28 (37) -9
Rundblad 23 (7; 19 over a full season) +4
Phillips 20 (19) +1
Neil 18 (28) -10
Winchester 18 (injured)
Smith 15 (26) -11
Konopka 11 (5) +6
Lee 10 (16) -6
Carkner 8 (injured)
Filatov – I predicted success (50) or KHL
Cowen – I thought he’d spend significant time in the AHL
Daugavins – see above

Anderson 33 Wins (33)
Auld 6 Wins (2) +4

Overall I did quite well, with my biggest error being my Bobby Butler projection.  Nine players are within 5 points (or wins) of the projections, while six are 10 or more off the reality.

Throughout the year I watched 80 of the teams 82 games and named players as top-performers or as ones who struggled.  Throughout the year no player was named among the best more than Erik Karlsson (19 times), while Chris Phillips earned the opposite honour (15 times).  Simply being named isn’t the only way to assess performance however, and when the combination of both is factored in the player who stood out most was Daniel Alfredsson (beating out Filip Kuba and Milan Michalek).  Among rookies Colin Greening and Erik Condra tied for the lead.  The worst player was the under achieving Bobby Butler.  The full numbers are below:

Senators best/worst throughout the season
Daniel Alfredsson 17/0 (+17)
Milan Michalek 17/3 (+14)
Filip Kuba 16/2 (+14)
Colin Greening 12/0 (+12)
Erik Condra 12/0 (+12)
Erik Karlsson 19/8 (+11)
Zack Smith 11/1 (+10)
Craig Anderson 17/12 (+5)
Chris Neil 8/3 (+5)
Sergei Gonchar 4/1 (+3)
Jim O’Brien 2/0 (+2)
Robin Lehner 2/0 (+2)
Peter Regin 2/0 (+2)
Jesse Winchester 2/1 (+1)
Kaspars Daugavins 1/0 (+1)
David Rundblad 2/2 (even)
Ben Bishop 3/3 (even)
Kyle Turris 4/5 (-1)
Nikita Filatov 0/1 (-1)
Jason Spezza 10/12 (-2)
Matt Gilroy 1/3 (-2)
Jared Cowen 9/12 (-3)
Nick Foligno 2/5 (-3)
Mika Zibanejad 0/3 (-3)
Alex Auld 1/5 (-4)
Matt Carkner 0/4 (-4)
Chris Phillips 10/15 (-5)
Zenon Konopka 0/5 (-5)
Stephane Da Costa 1/6 (-5)
Brian Lee 1/8 (-7)
Bobby Butler 1/10 (-9)
Rob Klinkhammer, Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman, and Andre Petersson were never named to either category

April 8, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 7 Comments

Senators News: April 8th; Binghamton 1, Norfolk 4

-The Sens achieved the best possible result last night as they dropped to eighth to face the New York Rangers (beginning Thursday).  While Ottawa might have been able to beat Tim Thomas and the Boston Bruins over a seven game series, it’s not something they’ve demonstrated all season.  Against the Rangers the Sens are 3-1, with their one loss a 3-2 affair in November.  Two of the three wins were against Lundqvist, so it’s not like the Sens benefitted from facing backup Biron.

–Paul MacLean talked after yesterday’s game, “It’s over now, so it’s good. We’re excited about next week and getting into the Stanley Cup playoffs, and having an opportunity there. We just sort of got through this one safe and healthy. Now we can start preparing for the Stanley Cup playoffs. We’re excited about that. Work would be the first thing we could do. If we did that, it’d make a significant difference in the outcome of the games. Be a little more mentally focused and sharp … we can’t just be giving away goals and expect to keep up. We have to get a little better focus, a little better work ethic and rely on the structure of our team to have a little success.”

–The Hockey News just can’t help themselves in dumping on Ottawa and see the Sens being swept by the Rangers.  The publication gives New York the edge in all categories (forwards, defense, goaltending, coaching, and special teams).  Just for a moment putting aside the specifics, sweeps in the first round are rare (since the lockout–so six seasons–there has only been one per year, except in  2010 when there were none and 2009 when three teams were swept), so clearly The Hockey News has no faith in the Sens whatsoever as a playoff team.

-Binghamton lost to Norfolk again last night, in a game that featured injuries to Wacey Hamilton, Dan Henningson, and Matt Puempel.  Mike McKenna made 36 saves in the loss, while Craig Schira scored the only goal.  Tim Conboy was a team worst -3; Ben Blood had his first AHL fight.  Here’s the box score and Joy Lindsay‘s game summary.  After the game Kurt Kleinendorst said, “We played really well. This was one of our best efforts of the year. It’s unfortunate. We just always find a way to lose a game, and it’s always a different guy. We played with nine forwards, relied on a few D more than others. This was two games in two nights against an elite team. Maybe we ran out of gas, but we didn’t fall apart.”

-Sens prospect Stefan Noesen broke his finger in the final game of Plymouth’s first round series and is out for their series against Kitchener

–Cap Geek has preliminary numbers for Ben Blood (0.825/14).

-The criticism of Sidney Crosby continues on the fringes of the media and within the NHL (Mike Milbury, Flyer assistant coach Craig Berube, Ranger coach John Tortorella, and now Don Cherry), and putting aside the specifics I wonder if this will impact the dismissive denial within the media that’s made Crosby immune to criticism.  With all the money invested by the NHL (and others) into Crosby‘s image it’s hard to imagine the status quo will change (here’s Larry Brooks‘ exploration of the issue), but perhaps the emergence of Steven Stamkos (or some other superstar) will permit more open discussion about him.

April 8, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Ottawa 2, New Jersey 4

The final game of the regular season was the expected no-hitter with little intensity.  Ottawa did themselves a favour by losing to New Jersey in regulation and with a little help can play the Rangers instead of Boston.  The broadcast was handled by the CBC’s Bob Cole and every time I hear him I wonder when they are finally going to put him out to pasture (today Alfredsson became Anderson, which was entertaining).  Here’s the box score.

First Period
The Sens started the game half-asleep, but prevented the Devils from any good chances.  Turris got hauled down on Ottawa’s first opportunity (no call), which was followed by an Ottawa penalty that was killed off very efficiently.  Anderson and Foligno giveaways presented the Devils with their first opportunities, which was followed by a 2-on-1 with Sykora unable to capitalise.  Brodeur put a weak backhand from Gilroy into his own net to give the Sens the early lead.  The Devils tied the game on the powerplay with a great shot from Kovalchuk.  In the final minute Greening had a great chance in the slot, but couldn’t put it home.
Second Period
The Sens started the period on the powerplay, but struggled to get set-up in the Devils zone and gave up a short-handed opportunity.  Smith had the first good chance for Ottawa.  New Jersey took over with a couple of excellent scoring chances in the middle of the frame.  A great shift from Ottawa’s Bingo line resulted in a goal by O’Brien.  Anderson made a huge save on a Sykora breakaway while the Devils were on the powerplay, but the Sens gave up a 5-on-1 as Klinkhammer, Alfredsson, and Cowen got caught deep and Sykora tied the game.  Michalek had a great chance late to tie it, but shot the puck over the net and then Anderson passed the puck to Kovalchuk whom he stopped on the terrific chance.
Third Period
The Sens had the first good chance of the period as Daugavins was in all alone.  Ottawa had the better chances through the first half of the period.  The Devils took the lead as Gonchar got watching the puck on a 2-on-2 instead of the man and Gionta banged in the rebound.  The Sens got a late powerplay, but had trouble getting pucks to the net.  Parise had a chance to finish the game, but Anderson made a great save.  Greening was unable to capitalise on a great feed from Karlsson late in the game and then Kovalchuk wrapped things up with an empty-netter.

Here’s a look at the goals:
1. Gilroy (Turris, Foligno)
Throws the puck on net with a weak backhand and Brodeur deflects it into his own net
2. New Jersey, Kovalchuk (pp)
Beats Anderson far side from the faceoff dot
3. O’Brien (Condra, Gilroy)
A great pass by Condra through the slot to O’Brien who roofs it on Brodeur
4. New Jersey, Sykora (pp)
Sens give up a 5-on-1 and capitalise on a nice passing play
5. New Jersey, Gionta
Alfredsson forces Ponikarovsky to throw a weak backhand on Anderson who kicks the rebound out and Gonchar is caught watching the puck so Gionta bangs it in
6. New Jersey, Kovalchuk (en)

Top-performers:
Jim O’Brien – excellent on the PK and scored a great goal
Chris Phillips – strong defensively and solid offensively
Matt Gilroy – it was a mixed bag defensively, but you can’t argue with his goal and assist

Players Who Struggled:
Jason Spezza – lapped the field with turnovers

April 7, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Senators News: April 7th; Binghamton 1, Norfolk 3

–Daniel Alfredsson doesn’t expect the game this afternoon to be full of fireworks, “I don’t think it will be an overly physical affair.”  Paul MacLean de-emphasized the importance of the game, “it’s more important to be prepared for that day. One thing I’ve learned over the years is that once Game 83 comes, it’s a whole new season. Doesn’t matter what you did before you get there. I think it’s two different seasons. Once it starts, momentum is going to go one way or the other. It’s whoever handles the momentum swings the best usually ends up winning.”  Given that there’s almost no chance the two teams will meet in the playoffs, expect a passionless no-hitter.

-I watched Binghamton’s loss last night, with the team overwhelmed during the first period and unable to generate much pressure throughout the game.  There’s a lot of individual play and very little structure in the offensive zone.  Why Tim Conboy played on the powerplay is beyond me (Binghamton was 0-5) and Ben Blood was little used in his debut.  Robin Lehner played well in the loss (making 32 saves), with the second goal bouncing in off Henningson and the third a result of terrible coverage by Patrick Wiercioch.  Jack Downing scored the team’s only goal.  Here’s the box score and Joy Lindsay‘s game summary.

–Kurt Kleinendorst talked about the loss, “You can’t fault the effort, for sure. Again, it’s just a little bit more of the same. Guys show up, make a great effort — really no passengers. (Goalie) Robin (Lehner) didn’t have to be great, but he was good. We’re certainly not pinning this one on him. Funny bounce, puck ends up in the back of the net. The team that’s winning finds a way to win, and the team that’s losing manages to lose. That [second goal] went in off of (Dan) Henningson. But we had a chance to block the shot, which you’ve got to do to find a way to win a hockey game. If we make that block, the puck never gets into the front of the net. It was a shot from a bad angle that they threw to the net, then it bounced off Henningson up in the air over Robin‘s shoulder. As well as we played, two of their three goals were preventable if we just blocked a shot.”

-Elmira won 5-2 last night to avoid elimination in the ECHL playoffs; Brian Stewart picked up the win and Corey Cowick held off the scoresheet.

April 7, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

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