Senators News: April 6th

-There will be no final game drama in the NHL to decide who does or doesn’t get into the playoffs–all sixteen teams were set as of last night.  Positioning jockeying remains, but there will be a large number of meaningless contests to close out the regular season.

Daniel Alfredsson admits it has been difficult to get excited about the last two games, “We’ve really tried to stay upbeat after the four wins and clinching the playoff spot, keeping the emotion going. It’s been tough to regroup to get the game to where we want. That game was nowhere near playoff intensity or the intensity we’re going to see next week. It’s more mental than anything. We’ll regroup, try to play a good game on Saturday and then move on.”  The truth is that it’s irrelevant if the Sens finish 7th or 8th–they will be heavy underdogs regardless, although I think they match-up better against the Rangers.  Don Brennan thinks the Sens should have been sending messages in last night’s game, but I don’t see the benefit in brawling with the Bruins in a meaningless game (unless they want to go ala Pittsburgh and try to injure players).  Save the energy and gusto for the games that matter.

Ian Mendes Tweets that Chris Neil took a nasty spill in practice and won’t join the team in New Jersey.

-I keep hearing commentators talk in hushed tones about how Erik Karlsson is going to have to be aware that he’ll be targeted in the playoffs.  The comments always imply he’ll struggle and that he has no idea what to expect.  It’s frankly ridiculous.  He’s been targeted all season long, he’s played playoff hockey (his rookie year), and for anyone who has watched him play they can see he’s very good at avoiding being hit.  It’s frankly much ado about nothing.

Mika Zibanejad and Fredrik Claesson‘s seasons are over with Djurgarden, which means Zibanejad will be on his way to Binghamton shortly.  Marcus Sorensen‘s season with Boras is also over.

-Here are my profiles of Sens prospects Marcus Sorensen and Bryce Aneloski.

Denis Boucher says mental toughness is a myth, “If you don’t learn to manage your thoughts and emotions and strictly focus on being mentally tough, you’re putting yourself in a perpetual state of denial. This is not at all helpful, because you’re just trying to hide the fact that you don’t know what to do with your negative thoughts and emotions. We can’t ignore the fact that stress and negative thoughts and emotions are part of being an athlete. Trying not to think about it by being mentally tough brings us back to the White Bear Syndrome. If I say to you, “don’t think about a white bear” what are you going to do? Think about a white bear. Since it is impossible to get rid of stress, negative thoughts and emotions, why not train athletes to deal with them and take control of their brain activity?

Prospect Profile: Bryce Aneloski

Bryce Aneloski (D-R, 6’2, DOB 1990, 7-196/10)
2007-08 USHL Cedar Rapids 59-8-12-20 +13 39pim (ppg 0.33) 4th d-pts
2008-09 NCAA Providence 16-0-1-1 8pim (ppg 0.06)
2008-09 USHL Cedar Rapid 38-4-8-12 -3 38pim (ppg 0.31) 4th
2009-10 USHL Cedar Rapids 60-15-39-54 +10 34pim (ppg 0.90) 1st all-star
2010-11 NCAA Nebraska-Omaha 39-2-17-19 +15 (ppg 0.48) 2nd
2011-12 NCAA Nebraska-Omaha 38-6-14-20 -5 12pim (ppg 0.52) 1st

The Sens final pick of the 2010 draft, Aneloski got a lot of exposure to their scouts by playing with 2009 Sens draft picks Jeff Costello and Chris Wideman in Cedar Rapids (he was not ranked by Central Scouting when drafted).  He was selected the year after a failed semester with Providence in the NCAA.  A puck-mover, he’s completed his second season with Nebraska-Omaha where he lead the team in scoring and slightly improved his offensive totals over last year.  It’s safe to assume Aneloski will play at least one more year in the NCAA before considering turning pro.  He describes himself, “I think I’m a good puck-moving defenseman. I think I can make a good outlet pass. I think I can play good stick-on-stick in the d-zone and stuff like that. I’d say the biggest strength that’s come this year [09-10] has been my play in the offensive zone, just making a little bit more stickhandles, like the feel of the puck and stuff like that, and I think my shot, too, just by working at it this summer.”  Tim Murray said, “(Aneloski) is just a guy that is a puck-moving, transition defenceman that you usually can’t get in the draft at that point in time. He’s two years older, he’s a late bloomer. But we’ve had success with guys like that … (who) have gone through the draft, that really have a heartbeat and a chance to be players. We’re not afraid of those guys. But they do drop because they’ve been through a draft. There’s still that stigma with some teams, I believe, but why should you be scared off … He’s got talent. I guess we didn’t address our needs, but he was too good to (pass) by.”  Here’s an interview with Sens scouts Bill McCarthy and Bob Janecyk about Aneloski, and here’s a goal by him from this year.

Ottawa 1, Boston 3

In a game that meant nothing to either team it was played without intensity.   No messages were sent nor tone established for the upcoming series.  The Sens had plenty of chances, but struggled to get pucks on net.  Here’s the box score.

First Period
With no energy or urgency the teams went through the motions.  The Bruins opened the scoring when Kuba gets caught on a pinch and capitalize on a 2-on-1.  Despite badly outshooting the Bruins, the Sens only had good scoring chance (Turris) in the period.
Second Period
Another lackadaisical period with the Bruins scoring again as Bishop flubs a shot by Zanon.  Perhaps lulled to sleep, the Bruins got back on their heels and the Sens scored on a broken play as Spezza beat Khubodin from the slot.  The Sens got energy from the goal and Winchester had a fantastic chance.  On the same play Bishop made his best save on a 2-on-1.  Nick Foligno had several fantastic opportunities throughout the period, but couldn’t capitalise.
Third Period
Not much pace to the period, but Karlsson missed an empty net on a beautiful pass from Smith in the closing minutes.  Lucic salted it away when the Sens got caught on a bad change and Kuba couldn’t stop Krejci‘s pass to Lucic who beat Bishop five-hole.

Here’s a look at the goals:
1. Boston, Pouliot
Kuba gets caught pinching and Karlsson can’t stop the cross-ice feed that Pouliot bangs in
2. Boston, Zanon
Bishop flubs the shot which goes through his glove
3. Spezza (Karlsson, Kuba)
4. Boston, Lucic
Kuba can’t stop the pass to Lucic in the slot who beats Bishop five-hole

Top-performers: no one earned honours in the laconic contest.

Players Who Struggled:
Ben Bishop – should have had the second goal and probably the third
Filip Kuba – guilty on two plays that lead directly to goals

Prospect Profile: Marcus Sorensen

Marcus Sorensen (RW, 5’11, DOB 1992, 4-106/10)
2008-09 J18 Sodertalje 18-8-9-17 36pim (ppg 0.94) 1st pts
2009-10 J18 Sodertalje 15-15-27-42 61pim (ppg 2.80) 3rd
2009-10 SupEl Sodertalje 27-7-10-17 -7 54pim (ppg 0.62) 7th
2010-11 SupEl Djurgarden 31-14-22-36 +26 53pim (ppg 1.16) 4th
2010-11 SEL Djurgarden 7-1-1-2 +2 0pim (ppg 0.28)
2011-12 SupEl SkellefteaJ20 8-2-3-5 -1 57pim (ppg 0.62)
2011-12 Allsvenskan Boras 29-8-9-17 -2 55pim (ppg 0.58) 9th

An off the wall pick (he was not ranked and was “shocked” to be drafted) who played with future Sens picks Mika Zibanejad and Fredrik Claesson, it was a rough year for Sorensen.  He was signed by Skelleftea but couldn’t make their lineup, so he spent time with their junior team before finishing the year on loan to Boras of the Allsvenskan (which has survived relegation; he has another year left on his contract with Skelleftea).  The Sens have t0 decide if they want to qualify and keep Sorensen, who may have been expected to play regularly in the SEL.  Projected as an energy forward, former Sens scout Anders Forsberg described him on draft day, “He’s a long (time) away. He’s a character guy who sticks his nose in everywhere he goes. He battles, he hits the (opponents). He just needs to put muscles on his body … he’s a raw, raw kid. We believe if we work with him well, we might get a home run. He has the potential to be a very good player. He has good hands and is a good skater.”  Here’s video from Forsberg (with Vaclav Burda) talking about him.

Senators News: April 5th; Binghamton 1, Syracuse 5

Ben Bishop will get the start as the Sens play a game that’s meaningless for the Bruins.  Matt Gilroy comes out of the lineup as Sergei Gonchar returns.

Stu Hackel looks at the goaltending for playoff teams in the east, saying this about Ottawa, “One of the league’s biggest surprise teams benefitted from Craig Anderson’s strong play. He responded well to his recent adversity, when a finger injury kept him out of the lineup for nearly a month. After some shaky moments in his first two games, he’s returned to his usual form, and everyone in Ottawa is breathing a little easier, especially after his 44-save game in Winnipeg last week. The biggest downside here is that Anderson has limited playoff experience at any level, having never won more than two games or played in more than six at any level since junior hockey. Big rookie Ben Bishop, who was excellent as an injury fill-in for Anderson, has a groin problem and his fitness for the playoffs is uncertain.

-Here’s my look at the Sens over their last ten games (link).

-As widely reported (here’s Joy Lindsay‘s report) Ben Blood has signed his ELC with Ottawa and is joining Binghamton in Norfolk.

-Binghamton got rolled by Syracuse last night, a game I was able to see most of.  Robin Lehner did not get much help from the team in front of him and despite the goal total played well (he made 37 saves).  Jack Downing scored the only goal, cleaning up Andre Petersson‘s garbage.  The team struggled in the defensive zone, with breakouts, and maintaining offensive pressure.  Here’s the box score and Joy Lindsay‘s game summary.

-Elmira lost last night and are now 0-2 in their first round series; Brian Stewart dressed as the backup.  Josh Godfrey and one of Binghamton’s forwards (probably Corey Cowick) have been sent down.

-The season isn’t quite over, but Scott Cullen goes through the rationale for his power rankings for TSN this year and how it all worked out.  I like the idea, although I think it would have made more sense to list the teams by his pre-season rankings rather than alphabetically.  Here’s how he did (the team’s current ranking is in brackets):
Boston 1st (5th)
Chicago 2nd (8th)
San Jose 3rd (12th)
Philadelphia 4th (9th)
Vancouver 5th (6th)
Washington 6th (18th)
Buffalo 7th (17th)
Detroit 8th (7th)
Pittsburgh 9th (1st)
Los Angeles 10th (13th)
New York Rangers 11th (3rd)
St. Louis 12th (2nd)
Nashville 13th (4th)
Tampa Bay 14th (26th)
Anaheim 15th (23rd)
Montreal 16th (25th)
Dallas 17th (14th)
Carolina 18th (22nd)
New Jersey 19th (11th)
Toronto 20th (29th)
Calgary 21st (21st)
New York Islanders 22nd (24th)
Columbus 23rd (30th)
Colorado 24th (19th)
Winnipeg 25th (20th)
Phoenix 26th (15th)
Minnesota 27th (28th)
Edmonton 28th (27th)
Florida 29th (16th)
Ottawa 30th (10th) (“After killing my preseason ranking by going in the tank last season, the Senators bounced back and ruined this year’s preseason ranking too. They were mediocre through Christmas, going 13-13-4 as of December 10th, but the season started to turn and, not entirely coincidentally, after they acquired Kyle Turris from Phoenix. It’s not so much that the Senators couldn’t find the 28 points in 47 games that Turris provided (though their second-line centres weren’t offering that much), it’s that Turris‘ presence allowed the Senators to balance their top two lines, keeping Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson on separate lines and both were productive. Getting bounceback seasons from 39-year-old Alfredsson and 37-year-old Sergei Gonchar certainly contributed to this season’s surprise result, as did the giant progression in the game of third-year Erik Karlsson, who went from dynamic offensive defenceman to Norris Trophy candidate (he’s still more O than D, but he does O like no one else). The Senators have also benefitted from good health and even when Craig Anderson suffered a freak finger injury at a time when it could have derailed their season, goaltenders Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner kept the Sens’ playoff hopes alive.“)

-I’m not sure explaining why Mike Milbury is behind the times is necessary, but Stu Hackel does so at length (comparing him to another dinosaur, Don Cherry).

Ottawa at the Eighty-Game Mark

The Sens are now eighty-games into the season (for the previous ten-game segment go link).  Ottawa went 5-4-1, earning 11 points (a 2 point decrease from their previous ten games).  They are 2nd in their division (unchanged), 7th in the conference (unchanged), and 13th in the overall standings (down from 12th).  They are 4th in goals for (unchanged), 22nd in goals against (up from 26th), 9th in powerplay percentage (down from 6th), 15th on the penalty kill (unchanged).  They remain 10th in 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio (1.06); they are 15th in the league in faceoffs (up from 17th); they are 29th in shots allowed (unchanged) and 9th in shots-for (unchanged).

Here’s a quick snapshot of player’s stats over the last ten games, although with TOI and faceoffs I’ve simply indicated if the numbers have changed significantly (INJ=games missed due to injury, SCR=scratched):
Daniel Alfredsson 9-5-5-10 +9 TOI 19:00 INJ 1
Jason Spezza
8-4-6-10 +3 TOI 19:55 FO% 53.8 INJ 2
Milan Michalek 10-3-6-9 +3 TOI 19:32
Kyle Turris 10-4-4-8 +3 TOI 16:52 FO% 46.3 (TOI increasing)
Erik Karlsson
10-1-7-8 +4 TOI 25:21
Colin Greening 10-4-3-7 +3 TOI 15:32
Filip Kuba 10-1-4-5 +7 TOI 23:41  
Nick Foligno
10-1-4-5 +4 TOI 14:38
Sergei Gonchar 9-2-2-4 -2 TOI 22:16
Chris Neil 10-2-1-3 -5 TOI 12:47 (TOI declining)
Chris Phillips 10-1-1-2 +7 TOI 19:03 (TOI increasing)
Zack Smith 10-0-2-2 +2 TOI 14:05 FO% 48.6 (TOI decreasing)
Jesse Winchester 2-0-1-1 +1 TOI 10:39 INJ 8
Bobby Butler 4-0-1-1 Even TOI 11:28 SCR 6
Matt Carkner 4-0-1-1 +3 TOI 11:51 SCR 6 (TOI decreasing)
Kaspars Daugavins 6-1-0-1 Even TOI 11:17 SCR 4
Rob Klinkhammer
9-0-1-1 -2 TOI 11:40 SCR 1 (TOI decreasing)
Jim O’Brien 10-0-1-1 -1 TOI 11:50 FO% 47.5 (FO decreasing) INJ 1
Erik Condra 10-0-1-1 -1 TOI 14:11
Jared Cowen 10-0-1-1 -4 TOI 18:55 (TOI decreasing)
Matt Gilroy 7-0-0-0 -3 TOI 17:30 SCR 3
Zenon Konopka 2-0-0-0 Even TOI 7:50 FO% 58.9 SCR 8
Peter Regin (injured)
Ben Bishop 1-2-1 2.41 .912 (GAA and SV declined) INJ 4
Craig Anderson 4-2-0 2.83 .914 (GAA and SV improved)

Alfredsson lead the team in goals and Karlsson the team in assists.  Alfredsson also lead the team in plus/minus (with a robust +9), while Chris Neil was at the bottom at -5.  Zenon Konopka and Bobby Butler are essentially out of the lineup, while the return of Jesse Winchester probably spells the end of Rob KlinkhammerMatt Gilroy‘s failure to produce continues.  Ben Bishop‘s numbers came back down to earth prior to his injury.

Senators News: April 4th

-The Sens loss last night means they can only face either Boston or the New York Rangers.  There’s no doubt that the team would be better off against the Rangers, but in either case they will be heavy underdogs.  As neither the Bruins, Rangers, nor the Sens have anything to play for in their final two games, no conclusions can be drawn by what happens over the next several days.  The key for Ottawa is to stay healthy.

Daniel Alfredsson can’t understand how Chris Neil‘s goal was called off last night, “I cannot believe that wasn’t a goal. In Winnipeg (Evander Kane) scored the exact same way and he didn’t use his hand to bat it in. It should have been a good goal.”

Sport Illustrated‘s rankings are out with Ottawa 11th.

-Here’s my profile of Sens prospect Jakub Culek.

-Elmira lost last night, with Brian Stewart taking the loss (Stewart, incidentally, was named the ECHL goaltender of the month for March).

-No one should care what Mike Milbury thinks, but his rant about Sidney Crosby is an opportunity to talk about the NHL’s marketing focus.  Crosby is a great player, arguably the best player of his era, but the idea that he should be immune to criticism (recall his elbow on Nick Foligno earlier this season) is absurd.  He’s a histrionic, chippy player (Craig Berube weighs in, although as one of the Flyers assistant coaches it’s in his interest to criticise) and even if he wasn’t no one is beyond reproach.  It does seem like criticising him is unacceptable around the league however (as Milbury‘s subsequent apology illustrates)–it reminds me of the approach to the league’s officiating–“best in the world” is the only acceptable narrative.

Prospect Profile: Jakub Culek

Jakub Culek (LW, 6’4, DOB 1992, 3-76/10)
2008-09 Czech U18 Plzen 29-15-16-31 98pim (ppg 1.06) 4th pts
2008-09 Czech U20 Plzen 12-3-2-5 10pim (ppg 0.41)
2009-10 QMJHL Rimouski 63-13-34-47 Even 54pim (ppg 0.74) 8th
2010-11 WJC Czech 6-1-1-2 (ppg 0.33) 11th
2010-11 QMJHL Rimouski 54-7-15-22 +2 37pim (ppg 0.40) 12th
2011-12 WJC Czech 5-1-3-4 (ppg 0.80) 4th
2011-12 QMJHL Rimouski 55-13-27-40 +3 58pim (ppg 0.72) 5th

Ottawa’s highest draft pick in 2010 (ranked #52 by Central Scouting), Culek rebounded from a terrible season last year.  Projected as a third-line player, the Sens have to make a decision on whether to retain him or not.  When he was drafted ISS said, “Culek was one of Rimouski’s better player’s night in and night out. He centered one of Rimouski’s top two lines plus played both PP and PK minutes. He finished the regular season with decent numbers. He possesses above average puck skills, puck protection and hockey sense. His skating has shown improvement from the start of the year, with added strength. He is a big project with third line upside.”  Red Line Report (who ranked him #70) said, “Big power winger has a good stride, but lacks balance.  Long wingspan that he uses to shield off defenders. Has improved his puck skills dramatically since last season [with Plzen], when he was essentially a big body who played a rugged game along the walls. Is a more confident puck-handler–willing to carry through the neutral zone and make moves off the rush. Nice release on wristers from the slot area, but is not a natural finisher around net. Creates his offence through hard work and aggression, banging and crashing down low and driving to net with and without the puck. Occasionally ridden off the puck too easily by smaller d-men he should be overpowering. Shows defensive awareness to cut off passing lanes and drop back to cover for rushing d-men. Fine prosepct if he continues to round the rough edges and add pieces to his game.”  Sens scouts Greg Royce and Vaclav Burda talked about Culek after the draft, echoing the sentiments above.  This is Culek scoring against Russia at the World Junior Championships.

Ottawa 1, Carolina 2

I was at tonight’s game and as expected it was a letdown with the Sens having secured their playoff spot.  The game was slow and dull, despite a rambunctious crowd.  It wasn’t a stellar night for the officials (Greg Kimmerly and Chris Rooney), but the Sens suffered more from a no-goal call under video review (continuing the trend of rulings against them this season) and sloppy play throughout the game.  Here’s the box score.  I don’t have my period-by-period breakdown, but there frankly weren’t many meaningful plays in the game.  The biggest moments not mentioned above were Chris Neil‘s breakaway (stopped by Ward) and Erik Karlsson saving a goal when Anderson fanned on the puck while out of his net.

A look at the goals:
1. Carolina, Sutter
Begun by a Condra turnover, Sutter’s harmless shot simply goes through Anderson
2. Carolina, Ruutu (pp)
Deflected the puck in off Kuba
3. Spezza (Greening, Alfredsson)
Great play in front of the net by Greening to get Spezza an empty net to shoot in

Top-performers:
Chris Neil – scored a goal (called back) and tried to add energy to the game

Players Who Struggled:
Craig Anderson – let in a bad goal and nearly surrendered another (Karlsson bailed him out)

Senators News: April 3rd

Bryan Murray talked about the Sens being in the playoffs, “I think anything can happen. I think we can play with anybody. I’m not going to say that we want to start (the playoffs) tomorrow. But I think we can play with most teams. Craig Anderson in goal gives us a chance every night, and when you have that to start with, it gives a lot of confidence to the group. To be fair to the people, many of them, they didn’t know our group as well as we think we knew them. (The experts) looked at (Chris) Phillips, (Filip) Kuba, (Sergei) Gonchar, (Daniel Alfredsson) and even (Jason Spezza) to a degree and felt that they weren’t able to rebound to the level that they did (this year). The other thing people didn’t respect is that we had a group in the minors that won a championship. When you win … they grew a great deal in that two-month period. They weren’t the big scorers, but they came in and gave us role definition. They allowed us to play hard every night. I don’t know whether it was a rebuild or what it was, but we kept our core guys. It’s a great achievement for our group and important for our fan base. I believe things will only get better as we go forward.”

Murray was on The Team 1200 and said he hopes Mika Zibanejad will play in Binghamton’s final two games after Djurgarden’s season is over on Friday.  He said it was very unlikely that Zibanejad would play for Ottawa in the playoffs.

The Hockey News and TSN‘s power rankings are out with Ottawa 11th and 10th (“the most surprising success story for an NHL team this season“).

Nichols has an interesting statistical breakdown of Erik Karlsson compared to the other Norris trophy candidates (he also compares him to the other Sens blueliners).  I think it’s unlikely Karlsson will win the trophy irrespective of his relative merits, but the numbers are worth checking out.

Joy Lindsay Tweets Binghamton’s lines at practice: Schneider-Cannone-Grant, Hoffman-Da Costa-Downing, Dziurzynski-Hamilton-Petersson (Lessard), Puempel-Bartlett-Cowick; Borowiecki-Schira, Henningson-Conboy, Wiercioch-Gryba.

-Here’s my profile of Sens prospect Brad Peltz.

Ken Campbell writes about how mis-management has hurt Canadian franchises (true), but makes the mistake of downplaying the value of the Canadian dollar in the ability of Canadian franchises competing (he brings up Winnipeg without making the connection that they wouldn’t have a franchise without the higher dollar).

-Prospect updates for those still playing (their position in team scoring is noted in brackets, defence compared to defence):
CHL
Stefan Noesen (C/RW, Plymouth, OHL) 6-7-7-14 (1st) (Plymouth defeated Guelph 4-2)
Shane Prince (C/LW, Ottawa 67s, OHL) 6-4-3-7 (t-1st) (67′s defeated Belleville 4-2)
Mark Stone
(RW, Brandon, WHL) 5-2-3-5 (2nd) (Brandon defeated Calgary 4-1)
Jakub Culek (C/LW, Rimouski, QMJHL) 4-2-2-4 (t-5th) (Rimouski defeated Val-D’Or 4-0)
Darren Kramer (C/LW, Spokane, WHL) 5-2-2-4 (t-5th) (Spokane defeated Vancouver 4-2)
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, Chicoutimi, QMJHL) 4-0-4-4 (t-6th) (Chicoutimi defeated Acadia-Bathurst 4-2)
Jordan Fransoo (D, Victoria, WHL) 4-0-2-2 (t-1st) (Victoria was eliminated by Kamloops 0-4)
SEL
Jakob Silfverberg (C/RW, Brynas) 10-7-5-12 (1st) (Brynas lead Farjestad 3-1)
Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, Djurgarden) 8-3-2-5 (3rd) (Djurgarden is 2-2-4 in relegation with two games left to play)
Fredrik Claesson (D, Djurgarden) 8-1-1-2 (3rd) (Djurgarden is 2-2-4 in relegation with two games left to play)
Allsvenskan
Marcus Sorensen (RW, Boras) 6-2-0-2 (10th) (Boras is 5-2-1 in relegation with two games left to play)