Sens Make the Playoffs: Reflecting on Trades and Roster Decisions

Before we dig in, a quick observation: despite the quality coverage of hockey on Youtube, the Sens (as in all other formats), are poorly represented. On the written side, fan site The Silver Seven‘s content garners virtually no engagement and is presumably nearing the end (The Athletic‘s Julian McKenzie is somehow even worse). Back to the matter at hand, let’s congratulate the org for finally achieving their goal of making the playoffs. I had a lot of questions about their decisions in the off-season (passim), but despite those concerns they made the dance for the first time since the 2017 miracle run.

So how was it achieved? Through internal development or savvy moves? Examining the latter determines the former, so let’s take a look at the changes between seasons. We need to keep in mind scoring decreased this year and is in danger of sliding back to the unwatchable doldrums that have characterized the Bettman era (cf). We can only judge these trades/signings by how they have gone so far, so in the future judgements could change.

Trades/Roster Moves

Linus Ullmark/Joonas Korpisalo+Mark Kastelic (Bos)
Ullmark .910 (-.005) resigned 8.25/4 yrs
Korpisalo/Kastelic .893 (+.003); Bos 61-5-9-14 (0.23, +.07) resigned 1.566/3 yrs

This was a substantial improvement in net and, despite four bad periods to start the playoffs, Ullmark has been as advertised. If he continues to perform then this is a steal for the Sens, as Korpisalo made it obvious in Boston that he’s never going to recapture the form he had for half a season in Columbus. This is a clear win thus far.

Jensen/Chychrun (Wsh)
Jensen 71-3-18-21 (0.29, +0.11)
Chychrun 74-20-27-47 (0.63, +0.13) resigned 9.0/4 yrs

Jensen is an underwhelming return for Chychrun, who was excellent in Washingon this year. The Sens picked the older Chabot over him and oddly both injury-prone players were healthy this year. Ottawa can’t win the trade, but even in terms of what they were trying to do, I think they fumbled the asset. Jensen is a useful depth piece for a Cup-contending team, which Ottawa is not and won’t be in the upcoming season. In essence, is Chabot a more useful part of a Cup chase than Chychrun? I doubt it. This is a loss.

David Perron
43-9-7-16 (0.37, -0.25)

He was abysmal during the regular season, but better in the playoffs. Does Ottawa need a player like this when the goal is just to make the playoffs? I don’t think so. Perron, just like Jensen above, is an addition for a realistic Cup run. Another loss, granting that if we see a good season from him next year and the Sens take another step, that can turn around.

Mathieu Joseph (Stl)
Stl 60-4-10-14 (0.23, -0.25)

He had a terrible season in St. Louis, which is what I was expecting, so moving on from his awful contract was needed. Amusingly, many fans who liked the Perron addition disliked the Joseph deletion–you couldn’t have both with the season’s Cap ceiling. Win.

Erik Brannstrom
Van 28-3-5-8 (0.28, +0.02) signed in Europe

He was traded twice this season and spent time in the minors. At this stage of his career it seems like the first-rounder doesn’t have enough talent to be a full-time NHLer and I suspect he’ll jump to the KHL or NLA to make a fortune. Win. [Since writing this he signed a deal in the NLA.]

Michael Amadio
72-11-16-27 (0.38, even)

I remain mystified by the addition. An unremarkable player who doesn’t hurt you, but doesn’t move the needle (he was largely invisible in the Toronto series). Overpaid for what he does, but with the cap going up it’s not a disaster. Loss.

Adam Gaudette
81-19-7-26 (0.32, AHL; vs last NHL season, +0.08)

Gaudette had his best season since he was 22 and playing in Vancouver (for Travis Green). Apparently Green can get the most out of him and he even showed that in the playoffs. He should be cheap and easy to resign if he wants to stay. Win.

Nick Cousins
50-6-9-15 (0.30, +0.08)

This signing puzzled me. I didn’t hate the addition, but players like Cousins are a dime a dozen and he brings nothing to the table that you couldn’t get from anyone else (including prospects). A wasted roster spot. Loss.

Parker Kelly (Col)
Col 80-8-11-19 (0.24, +0.01)

Is what he is, which is to say a marginal player who could easily find himself in the AHL or Europe because of his offensive limitations. The Sens did well to move on from him. Win.

Xavier Bourgault+Jake Chiasson+4th/Roby Jarventie (Edm)
Bourgault 61-12-14-26 (0.43, +0.07)
Jarventie 2-0-2-2 (1.00, +0.09)

Jarventie was hurt again this year, so one could say the Sens acquired an asset for damaged goods. That said, Bourgault was unimpressive and isn’t worth hanging onto (he had long and frequent droughts, with his only sustained performance coming near the end of the season, 9-4-3-7). In terms of talent there’s no question Edmonton won this deal (Jarventie has NHL-level offensive abilities), but talent isn’t useful if the player can’t play. However, given Bourgault’s performance, they got nothing in return (Chiasson was an expected disaster). Yes, the Sens were going to have to take a risk here, but they could have done better. Loss.

Jan Jenik/Igor Sokolov (Utah)
Jenik 52-12-17-27 (0.56, -0.09)
Sokolov 72-22-22-44 (0.61, -0.03)

Both teams have to be disappointed by this trade, as neither player was able to take a step forward. For the loveable Sokolov, this is probably the end of his NHL journey. His skating and production just aren’t good enough, but he can make good money in Europe. As for Jenik, he’s going to have to find a way to be a useful depth forward or else he’ll suffer the same fate. Let’s also point out that Jenik is the final, sad piece remaining from the Mark Stone trade–yikes! Wash.

6th/Kevin Mandolese (Col)
.903 (+.002)

Maintained roughly the same level of play in Colorado’s system, but there was no breakout and the Sens needed to move on from him. Win.

Fabian Zetterlund+Tristen Robins+4th/Zack Ostapchuk+Noah Gregor+2nd
Zetterlund/Robins 20-2-3-5 (0.20, -0.36)/AHL 15-1-5-6 (0.40, -0.04)
Ostapchuk/Gregor 13-0-0-0 (0.00, -0.09)/12-0-1-1 (0.08, -0.07)

Neither Ostapchuk or Gregor could produce as fourth-liners (if they can produce at all), so moving them for an asset makes sense. Zetterlund was not very good when he arrived, but he was buried in the lineup and struggled to find his place. If the Sens can do something with him (either via trade or usage), this is a good move. Robins is an unremarkable prospect and the Sens should let him walk. I’m not thrilled about the 2nd-round pick that’s included in the trade, so if that isn’t recouped and Zetterlund flames out or doesn’t get a good return, this is a loss. However, for now, Wash.

Dylan Cozens+Dennis Gilbert+2nd/Josh Norris+Bernard Jacob-Docker
Cozens/Gilbert 21-5-11-16 (0.76, +0.25)/4-0-1-1 (0.25, +0.05)
Norris/JBD 3-1-1-2 (0.66, +0.04)/15-1-3-4 (0.26)

I’ve never liked JBD and the oft-injured Norris needed to go (someone whose abilities have been increasingly hampered by injuries). Cozens is overpaid for what he does and Gilbert was just a throw-in for cap reasons (I see no reason to retain him), but as long as Cozens can maintain second-line production levels it’s a good deal (although I wonder if this means Pinto is on his way out). Win.

Internal Development vs Savvy Moves

Of the roster additions that joined the Sens, the most impactful was Ullmark. Stable goaltending, which the Sens haven’t had since the 2016-17 season, made all the difference. Their goalscoring slightly declined (I think simply in measure with that across the league), but cutting the goals against by almost 50 was fantastic. The Sens gave away Filip Gustavsson in 2022 and Joey Daccord in 2021, so perhaps they could have internally accomplished this earlier, but nevertheless, that huge hole has been filled. Internally Sanderson saw an appreciable bump in production, but otherwise the roster more or less performed as expected. So my answer to the question is a mix, as one key move and an expected internal development pushed the team into playoff territory. That said, the team is by no means guaranteed to make the playoffs again next year.

Belleville

The BSens finished the season 34-27-11, which is slightly better than last (31-31-10; a modest 3 extra wins and 7 points). The team struggled to score (206, which is 27 less than last season), although they did cut down goals against (35 from the prior season, keeping in mind scoring throughout the league dropped). Unlike last season, the BSens did not qualify for the playoffs.

Halliday had an excellent rookie season, despite being hobbled by ECHL linemates to start the season (8-0-2-2; Rees/Boucher). His totals might not have been as halcyon as hoped, but are enough to confirm there is NHL potential, even if his defensive play needs work. He should dominate next season.

For Crookshank, this is the season where I’ve finally given up on his NHL potential. His footspeed is a huge impediment to his style of play (a bottom-six agitator/energy guy), and he’s not quite productive enough to overcome that. He’s excellent at this level, but not suited to the top line.

Reinhardt had a Jack Rodewald-style spike in production, which is not indicative of where his true potential is (ending the season 11-1-3-4). If (if) he has NHL-potential, it’s as a defensively sound depth player with good speed (a bit like a Peter Schaefer). That’s fantastic, but very much remains an if at this stage.

This was a down year for Guenette, which suggests there’s no NHL-potential and he’s simply a useful AHL defender (much like Max Lajoie, who left the org five years ago). Daoust, who was finally healthy, had a decent rookie season, but did nothing to show what the Sens expected when he was drafted (more time is needed, if he’s retained; he had an awful month-long stretch in Jan-Feb, 10-0-0-0).

Sebrango got hot early, but then went back to his typical play for the rest of the season (ending 14-2-2-4). I don’t see NHL-potential in him, although he has shown he can be a solid player at the AHL-level (something that was in doubt when acquired as part of the DeBrincat trade).

Both Rees and Boucher confirmed that they are marginal players (the former seems more like an ECHLer and the latter may be as well). Donovan had a very rough introduction to the league (20-0-0-0), but did improve as it went on. Toure‘s time in the ECHL helped and his transition was smoother because of it, but it’s not clear either defender has NHL-potential.

What a disaster this season was for Sogaard, who was hurt (again!) and awful in both the NHL and AHL (career worst numbers). Merilainen was the bright spot, but with no quality goaltender behind him he was overplayed. The Subban story is nice, but he can’t carry the load at this level anymore. The Sens suffered by taking a risk on their third minor league ‘tender as Simpson was not ready (such that we saw the return of Sinclair, who had that role the prior two seasons, but he couldn’t provide relief either). I don’t think goaltending is the only reason the BSens didn’t make the playoffs, but it didn’t help.

Overall, looking at the roster the BSens entered the season with, only Reinhardt and Bongiovanni (along with the aforementioned Halliday) stood out. The addition of Jeremy Davies helped a lackluster d-corps, but the roster was littered with useless additions (Roos), failed reclamation projects (Rees), and prospects with little apparent talent (Boucher, Pettersson). There’s a lot of work needed for both the prospect pool and in Belleville generally.

NHL Playoffs

I was happy to see some playoff hockey in Ottawa and other than the first game it was an entertaining series. It had no echo of the old rivalry with Toronto, as the modern Leafs are an inoffensive team you can’t hate for their style of play. The broadcasting was tolerable, although Craig Simpson remains one of the worst play-by-play analysts I’ve ever heard (my kingdom for Ray Ferraro!). I wasn’t expecting the Sens to win, but they would have been a more entertaining challenge for Florida (they would have lost too, particularly if there was an ‘accidental’ injury to Ullmark).

Playoff viewership numbers for the NHL continue to go down (albeit the article linked simply invents reasons for it, rather than digging into the data). This is no surprise, as I’ve been covering this in hockey and sports in general for years (and years, and years, and most recently). No one cares about Florida (or any of the sunbelt teams) and that will never change–hockey is too expensive and requires too much real estate to saturate communities already invested in other sports. When anyone can play basketball or baseball or soccer at virtually no cost (and the bar of entry for football isn’t high), there’s no room for hockey outside regional areas (mostly in the north). The league dodged a bullet by Dallas losing, as no one would watch Florida-Dallas. The smart thing for Bettman to do is relent and allow a Canadian team to win (the logic against it has always been: Canadians watch anyway and their market is saturated, so encourage/support the American base by having those franchises win). Giving the league’s only superstar (McDavid) a Cup makes sense (a bit like Ovechkin’s in 2018) before we go back to seeing unwatchable, marginal teams win in meaningless markets.

This article was written by Peter Levi

June 3, 2025
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Sens Off-Season Continues to go off the Rails

Fans in Ottawa live in a myopic bubble where everything is positive until you can’t ignore reality anymore. Thankfully, outside this space you can get a reality check and we have one from The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn: “Everything else [besides the Ullmark trade] the Senators have done has only hurt their playoff chances. The Jakob Chychrun trade was a disaster. Not qualifying Erik Brannstrom probably wasn’t wise. And signing Michael Amadio at the expense of Mathieu Joseph didn’t make a whole lot of sense given the latter is probably cheaper and better.” He gives the Perron deal a pass (which I don’t) and this was written before the deals discussed below. The Chychrun trade in particular is one of those that, in future, will be in the hall of fame of the org’s bad deals.

What’s irritating about all this as a fan is that this counternarrative is ignored locally. Why the silence? Clicks? Access? The latter appears to be the case for Nicholls, as he’s landed work at The Hockey News, but the days of he, Ary, and others actively challenging the org seems passe except after the fact.

Speaking of dumb moves, they continue. The Sens jettisoned one of their only remaining talented prospects by sending Roby Jarventie to Edmonton for spare parts (and to be clear: most prospects don’t pan out, but in terms of talent this trade is a joke). Let’s look at what came back.

Xavier Bourgault, 10/02, 6’0, CR/RW, 1-21/21 Edm
23-24 55-8-12-20 0.36
23-22 62-13-21-34 0.55
Career 117-21-33-54 0.46

The former first-round pick is on the decline, having shown nothing in his first two seasons as a pro (Jarventie‘s career AHL numbers aren’t massively higher, 0.63, but if you eliminate his rookie season, he’s 0.81, close to double Bourgault). There’s not much room on the BSens roster for the new addition, so the point in acquiring him seems to be getting rid of Jarventie. The justification for the trade is that Jarventie is injured too much (I guess Chabot and Tyler Boucher are also on their way out) and “Bourgault is a fairly one-dimensional, offensive player, and he wasn’t being put in a position to succeed with the Condors, and he wasn’t the only one. There is a lot more talent with Bourgault than was shown over his last two seasons. His final season in the Quebec Maritime Junior Hockey League was his best and he posted 75 points in 43 games.” We’re basing everything on part of a season in the Q? Why? There’s no sign of this in the AHL and unlike Jarventie his performance is dropping. There’s no reason to imagine a turnaround.

Jake Chaisson, 05/03, 6’2, RW, 4-116/21 Edm
23-24 ECHL 68-9-11-20 0.29
22-23 WHL 70-20-38-58 0.83

This part of the deal reminds me a great deal of the org acquiring Graham McPhee (an Oiler castoff with no apparent talent). His ECHL numbers are abysmal, so I don’t expect him in Belleville unless there are injury problems. Undoubtedly he was someone the Oilers wanted to get rid of and Staios can’t turn down a bad player when offered one.

In a more minor deal, the Sens sent qualified third-stringer RFA Kevin Mandolese to Colorado along with a 7th round pick for a 6th. That’s not much value for the asset, but at least it’s something back as opposed nothing. With Sogaard re-signed it means he and Merilainen will carry the load for Belleville (which is fine).

The BSens signed blueliner Wyatte Wylie to an AHL-contract. Let’s take a look:

Wyatte Wylie, 11/99, 6’0, DR, 5-127/18 Phi
23-24 45-2-11-13 0.29
22-23 45-3-7-10 0.22
21-22 65-5-13-18 0.0.28
Career 176-11-37-48 0.27

An offensively gifted player when drafted from the WHL, he’s had an unremarkable career in the Philadelphia and LA systems. The BSens, with the loss of Thomson to the SEL, are short on the right side, so he arrives to help shore that up. He’s essentially a more talented version of part-time blueliner Ryan MacKinnon, who has departed to play in the Slovakian league.

The team also signed Keean Washkurak:

Keean Washkurakm, 08/01, 5’10, CL, 5-155/19 Stl
23-24 63-4-6-10 0.16
22-23 45-10-3-13 0.29
Career 175-27-19-46 0.26

The undersized forward has had an unremarkable career in the AHL after a similarly unremarkable career in the OHL. Clearly signed for depth, I’m not sure what he’s supposed to bring to the table besides a pulse.

I got what might be an indirect shoutout from NKB (as the org is still on the Titanic post-Dorion).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 16, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The Staios Nightmare Unfolds

Having spent time so much time covering Pierre Dorion, I know what incompetence feels like and this off-season feels very familiar. We had hints of this at the trade deadline with the awful Tarasenko trade (along with the inability to move either Joseph or Brannstrom), but that was just an appetizer. Every GM across the league should be picking up the phone to call Ottawa (as St. Louis did, getting Mathieu Joseph not just for nothing, but with a 3rd-round pick thrown in). I’m going to go through the latest roster moves and we can share the pain together. To save those of you who just want to skim for what I liked or disliked, I’ve colour-coded that with green for good, red for bad, and no highlight when I think it’s mixed.

Chychrun for Jensen/3rd-rounder (2026)
It’s difficult to imagine a worse trade. To quote The Athletic: “There’s no way to say right now just what the market on Chychrun was, but it’s fair to call it a highly underwhelming return.“. The Sens gave up on a signed, 26-year old dynamic blueliner who is finally healthy, affordable, and wanted to be in Ottawa, for a declining 33-year old blueliner coming off his worst year via analytics. I’m sure he’s good in the corners and I know he plays the right side, but he’s old, overpaid, and won’t be here long. Org defenders have come out with the refrain: “Chychrun was a sunk cost, so there is no use complaining about that anymore.” This is ridiculous (as one can see from The Athletic‘s reaction–and frankly everyone’s from outside the local market). Acquiring Chychrun is one of the few good trades from the Dorion regime and Staios’ failure to handle an asset (again!) simply illustrates he’s struggles as a general manager. It even fails in comparison to Dorion’s terrible DeBrincat trade, because he at least Dorian got a 1st-round pick. One can imagine Staios in the same scenario impatiently trading straight-up for Kubalik and a 4th-rounder.

What’s clear from the above and what follows is that Andlauer has given Staios a free reign and has no idea how to handle hockey assets. There’s positives in that he won’t interfere, but if he doesn’t have a meaningful understanding of hockey, a terrible manager can linger like Jarmo Kekalainen for years.

FA signing David Perron
He’s 35, so he can’t be bought out; he’s coming off his worst year via analytics ever (link above); and he’s signed with term for 4 million. I was trying to figure out the internal logic for this one and I think the org has done it projecting to the 25-26 season, after Giroux walks, is traded, or retires. Perron becomes a less expensive veteran in the lineup and clearly the org wants an older player in their top-six. Of course, Perron isn’t remotely as good a player as Giroux is. My problem, putting the questionable logic aside, is his cap hit, trajectory, and the inability to do anything with him if he completely falls off.

Re-signing Shane Pinto
There was never a question that he’d be re-signed, just for what and how long. The cap hit is fine (3.75) and while the term is short (two years), given all contracts coming off the books it’s possible for the team to keep him (at that point the state of Josh Norris should be clear–the worst case scenario for the Sens is Norris gets healthy but is a shadow of his former self).

Nothing for Mathieu Joseph and a 3rd-rounder (2025)
It’s amazing how easily Staios throws up his hands and gives up on players. Not only did he give Joseph away (having replaced him with someone only marginally cheaper in Amadio), he had to include a pick as well. I’m sure ‘sunk costs’ will explain this one locally too, but there’s no excuse for this. I’ve been eager for Joseph to go for a long time (based on the absurd contract Dorion gave him), but to get nothing in a market when talented players can be acquired for Nick Jensen is inexcusable.

Nothing letting Erik Brannstrom walk
I know, I know, ‘sunk cost’ mumble mumble couldn’t find a trade partner. Yet another complete fail without getting anything for an asset. What’s funny is that with both this and Chychrun‘s departure, the Sens are now lacking talent and skill on their blueline. Chabot is unlikely to ever play much more than half a season, Hamonic isn’t an NHL player any longer, and JBD has his own issues. The decision seems to be gambling on Kleven and simply hoping the puck magically moves from the blueline to the forwards.

FA signing Michael Amadio
He was with the org before, but this deal seems almost as bad as the Mathieu Joseph contract. Signed for 3-years, he’s a guy who will get the team 25-30 points a year…hopefully. He’s only achieved that on a very talented Vegas team, being much worse otherwise (0.37 with Vegas, 0.22 elsewhere). If there was less term (or cash) I could give it a pass, but the potential down sides are very unappealing.

FA signing Noah Gregor
The team let Parker Kelly walk (something I approve of) and replaced him with Gregor. The org’s rationale is that he’s quicker, while I’d say he’s marginally better offensively (0.26 per game vs 0.20; it’s almost eerie how similar they are as players). It feels like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

FA signing Hayden Hodgson (2-way)
A pointless goon signing (especially with McEwen on the roster–someone I fully expect to play in the minors where he’s also a productive forward). He’s slightly more talented than Imama (0.34 vs 0.23), so that’s the silver lining, but he’s an unnecessary addition.

FA signing Filip Roos (2-way)
The big Swede hasn’t show much as an AHLer (0.28) and I have no idea where you play him (even with Kleven in the NHL there’s still five d-men on the left side). I find the choice baffling, but at least it’s not a veteran slot.

FA signing Jeremy Davies (2-way)
This makes a bit more sense to me, as the veteran is a puck mover at the AHL-level (0.49). The BSens haven’t brought in a player like him in quite some time (the last time they did it successfully was in 2012-13, with Andre Benoit, but the last time they tried was Michael Kostka in 2015-16), leaning on prospects to do that from the blueline, so I like the idea behind the move.

FA signing Adam Gaudette (2-way)
We’ve seen this movie before, but at least he’s not been signed for the NHL roster. He’s a very productive AHL-scorer and a welcome addition.

Retained AHL vet Garrett Pilon
While his regular season was just average, he was good in the playoffs. I don’t mind the two-year contract, as there’s not much coming through the Sens pipeline now.

The Sens have a few more RFA situations to sort out, but none are of immediate NHL-impact nor do I think any of them will be difficult to sort out. I’m not clear on why they qualified Kevin Mandolese again, but he is insurance at the AHL-level.

There’s not much cap room left, but if Norris is unavailable to start the season (which is my assumption), the team will need two players on two-way contracts to fill out spots on the third and fourth line (there are plenty of options for both). I’m also assuming Kleven is in the mix for the defensemen, so on paper the lineup is set. Is it a good lineup? That’s a different question and I’ll leave that for a separate discussion.

As a post-note, I missed Kyle Betts being re-signed to an AHL-deal with Belleville back in March. It’s a move I’m fine with. Betts won’t blow anyone away with his skill, but he can plug-and-play as a fourth-liner, which is a useful thing for the BSens to have.

The BSens also retained Bell as their head coach while replacing both his assistants with Stefan Legein (from the WHL), and Andrew Campbell (from the OHL). Gone are assistants Chris Dennis and Nathan McIver (I have no idea if the change is a conscious one from the org or if both simply moved on).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 3, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Ullmark Trade, Re-Signings, and the Draft

While I was not happy with Steve Staios at the trade deadline (cf), he did manage to undo one of the bigger Pierre Dorion flubs by dumping Joonas Korpisalo on the Bruins in return for one year of Linus Ullmark. The Sens were also able to get rid of a worthless one-way contract in Mark Kastelic, but had to give up a first-round pick in 2024, which the Bruins used to select 6’6 center Dean Letourneau. It’s a much better hockey trade for Boston (who already tried and failed to move Ullmark at the deadline), but this wipes the slate clean for Staios by getting him out from under the Korpisalo (and Kastelic). This frees his hands when it comes to goaltending, as both Ullmark and Forsberg have just one year left on their deals, while the Kastelic move creates opportunity for players like Crookshank, Jarventie, Halliday, etc. [After writing the bulk of this I learned that the Sens are not qualifying Erik Brannstrom, which is a suitably botched ending to the Mark Stone trade–yet another reason why Staios failed the trade deadline]

Linus Ullmark, DOB 93, 6’4, 6-163/12 Buf; 1yr remaining
2022-23 .915 2.58
2021-22 .938 1.89

Ullmark has never been a #1 goaltender before, at best being the 1A for Boston in 21-22. He’s been awful in the playoffs (including in the AHL), but the Sens won’t be a playoff team, so that’s not relevant. He’s played on bad teams before in Buffalo and put up better numbers than Korpisalo, Forsberg, Matt Murray, etc, in that situation, so he’s an improvement. To me the ideal circumstance is to move him at the deadline for other assets. The only hesitation here is that he’s never handled a starter’s workload in the NHL and it’s unclear how he’ll respond to that.

Besides the big trade, Staios has also been busy re-signing various players (mostly RFA’s) to two-way deals (you can see how their seasons went here). In order:
Angus Crookshank (50-24-22-46) – a one-year deal; this should be the transition deal where he graduates to the NHL team or is moved elsewhere; I like him quite a bit, with the potential issue for him being speed
Cole Reinhardt (56-8-15-23) – one-year; statistically on a down year, but he’s not in the org to produce; definitely a make or break season as I think he has to define a niche and excel in it (PK/energy role suits him best)
Maxence Guenette (58-7-27-34) – one-year; while he established himself as the top offensive blueliner in Belleville, he also trailed off as the season wore on; he’ll need to show more consistency next season
Nikolas Matinpalo (67-4-10-14) – one-year; the undrafted Finn is good defensively, so I think continuing that trend while being more physical and adding a more offense is what I’d look for
Jamieson Rees (51-0-8-8) – one-year; an absolute disaster for both Carolina and Ottawa, the Sens are banking on him rebounding somewhere close to the form he had in 21-22 (otherwise he’s a complete bust)
Wyatt Bongiovanni (48-16-9-25) – one-year; unlike Rees above, he did respond to the move to Ottawa and has been rewarded; he needs to produce, so that’s what to look for
Matthew Highmore (43-9-22-31) – one-year; the only UFA on this list, I suspect the team likes his versability, where he can function in the NHL while also doing his duty in the minors
Michael Simpson (OHL .905 2.61; AHL-deal) – one-year; undersized (6’1) undrafted OHLer signed to serve in the ECHL

One thing I didn’t discuss was the AHL playoffs for Belleville. To briefly recap: the Sens won their opening round 2-1 than lost 2-3 in the next. Halliday was the highlight among prospects (leading the team in scoring), with a trio of veterans doing most of the rest of the work. Generally the prospects wilted in the playoffs, with Sogaard erratic between the pipes.

For those who have read my coverage for a long time you know I like taking risks on skill and goaltending–the two rarest things in the NHL. The Sens have long preferred to take risks on grinders, tough guys, and defensive stalwarts. This approach echoes most of what Ottawa’s commentators ask for. This approach has caused the prospect pool to dry up we can see that the scouting team under Steve Staios still operates under that principal. Neither Scott Wheeler nor Corey Pronman‘s liked their draft.

In reflecting on these picks, it’s worth noting that despite incessantly picking from the US systems, the Sens have a terrible track record with those picks. Gonig over the trends from 2008 to 2021 (the Dorion era forward; success is equal to 400 NHL games or where we can presume it; for some younger players it’s TBD; I put first-round picks in green since that’s as close to idiot-proof as you can get):
US systems (24): Dzingel, (Daccord), Tkachuk, Pinto, Sanderson
WHL/BCHL (18): Smith, Grant, Stone, Lazar, (Greig)
Sweden (16): Karlsson, Silfverberg, Lehner, Zibanejad
OHL/CCHL/etc (14): Borowiecki, Noesen, Ceci, (Formenton)
QMJHL (11): Hoffman, Pageau, Chabot, Batherson
Finland (4): none
Germany (1): Stutzle
Out of 88 total picks, 27% are from the US systems, much more than the 20% from Western Canada in second (the combined CHL is much more, of course, 49%, but that’s to be expected). Despite that US preponderance, those selections aren’t ahead in terms of success, sitting tied with the West, Sweden, and QMJHL (and just ahead of the OHL). To me that suggests the org needs to reevaluate its US scouting.

1-7 Carter Yakemchuk, RD, 6’3, WHL, 66-30-41-71
Lead the blueline in scoring and was second on the team overall; this is the one pick the aforementioned analysts actually liked, although it’s higher than the consensus listings. The criticisms of him (and why he wasn’t a top-five consideration) is based on his defending and mental mistakes. Defense is easily taught, but mental errors are harder to fix.

2-39 Gabriel Eliasson, LD, 6’7, Swe-J20, 36-1-5-6
Will be going to the NCAA from Sweden; amongst the worst producers on his team; the negative sentiments from scouts about him are overwhelming; the Sens are hoping his unique size and onery temperament will be enough to carry him through–it’s unlikely, but the org likes taking these kinds of risks based on size (Djibril Toure, Ben Roger, Chandler Romero, Filip Nordberg, Theo Wallberg, etc); like the pick above, he went ahead of projections. From Pronman: “He is a player some evaluators love because of how hard he plays, but there is some real doubt he can make even basic plays versus pros.” Wheeler: “I didn’t rank him on my board after watching him get in his own way more than any defenseman I’ve scouted in 11 years of doing this. He is the most undisciplined player I’ve ever watched and has shown no ability to play with any restraint“

4-104 Lucas Ellinas, LW/CL, 6’2, OHL, 67-16-17-33
Plays with fellow Sens’ pick Andonovski; he was 7th in scoring; scouts liked his shot and work ethic; it’s worth noting he’s already had shoulder problems and there are mixed feelings about his skating (Pronman thinks it’s not good, Wheeler says he has good speed).

4-112 Javon Moore, LW, 6’4, USHS, 28-26-27-53
The pick acquired from Detroit in the DeBrincat trade; was third on his high school team in scoring. Pronman: “I didn’t think he dominated high school opponents like his talent dictated he should, whether it was due to so-so hockey sense or too much perimeter play.“

4-117 Blake Montgomery, LW, 6’4, USHL, 58-22-21-43
The pick acquired from Tampa in the Paul trade; third in scoring on the team, but first in points-per-game; picked slightly ahead of projections. Pronman: “he’s a great athlete who has some physicality and OK skill that will make him appealing to NHL teams.“

5-136 Eerik Wallenius, DL, 6’4, Finn-U20, 14-3-5-8
Bounced between leagues (as is normal for younger players in Europe), but in limited action was the most successful offensive blueliner. Pronman: “His mobility isn’t great … and I don’t see the top-level puck play to compensate for that.“

(Ottawa’s 3rd-round pick was lost to Chicago in the DeBrincat trade; the 6th-round was lost to Carolina in the inexplicable Rees trade; the 7th-round pick went to Toronto in the Murray trade.)

There’s a pretty obvious theme in the players above and that’s size. Nearly all the players were taken ahead of projections and are projects (many of which verge between bust and depth). This tendency goes back to Troy Mann and thus far none of the ‘truculent’ players have panned out. The successes Mann had were risks on skilled players (Batherson, Pinto, etc). How many Tyler Boucher‘s can you draft before the lesson sinks in? Apparently there is no limit. (Tangentially I have to comment on lazy writing from The Silver Seven on the later prospects–using the Google machine won’t hurt you Beata!)

The odds of Yakemchuk working out are good, because top-ten picks usually do (Boucher is an exception), but we’ll have to see with the rest of the crew, none of whom are coming soon. On the surface this isn’t a great draft, but I want to see some results before I take a strong stance on it.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 1, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Sens Acquire Two Minor Leaguers and Sign Halliday

Under the radar Sens GM Staios made a couple of minor league deals about a week ago (March 15th), acquiring failed Winnipeg asset Wyatt Bongiovanni for nothing (future considerations) and sending their 6th round pick for failed Carolina asset Jamieson Rees. The former deal I greet with a shrug of the shoulders–it costs nothing and the BSens are short on useful forwards, so why not try? I’m less enamored with the second deal, since dumping picks for questionable assets is a poor use of draft capital. Let’s look at both players.

Wyatt Bongiovanni, DOB 99, CL, 6’0, undrafted
2021-22 NCAA 42-16-18-34 0.81 (2nd)
2022-23 AHL 56-13-5-18 0.32 (11th)
2022-24 AHL 34-8-7-15 0.44 (10th)

A relatively unremarkable USHL player who moved on to Quinnipiac where he was much better; he finished his final NCAA season second in scoring to the undrafted, undersized defenseman Zach Metsa (who is having a decent season with Rochester as a rookie). Was he unproductive on the Moose or was he not given the opportunity? Given that the Jets gave him away I’m leaning towards the former.

Jamieson Rees, DOB 01, CL, 5’10, 2-44/19
2021-22 61-7-17-24 0.39 (8th)
2022-23 65-14-28-42 0.64 (3rd)
2023-24 37-0-4-4 0.11 (sub-12th)

The OHL grad’s career has derailed after a solid third AHL-season last year. He’s never been dominant in the minors and I don’t see the NHL upside, so I’m lost on why the Sens want to take a flier on him (as in, what’s the hope for him with the org?). Barring a late season surge this looks like a fail off the hop. For those with good memories (or a nose for trivia), Rees has an Ottawa connection, as the pick used to draft him was part of the Erik Karlsson deal, subsequently traded away to draft Mads Sogaard (cf).

We had one other transaction that I’ve expected for some time: signing Stephen Halliday to his ELC (cf for projection thoughts).

Stephen Halliday, DOB 02, CL, 6’3, 4-104/22
2021-22 62-35-60-95 (1st)
2022-23 40-9-32-41 (1st)
2023-24 38-10-26-36 (1st)

For once the Sens drafted for talent in the later rounds and he’s proceeded to lead his team in production every season. The BSens are desperate for scoring (something neither of the two players above can solve) and the org in general needs a talent-injection. Here’s hoping he can provide that (certainly his size gives him the option of being more than just a scorer as well). If his description sounds a little bit like failed picks Todd Burgess (4-103/16) and Jakov Novak (7-188/18) it’s worth noting that Halliday was much more productive than both as a college player. He was, incidentally, playing with Sens prospect Theo Wallberg who has turned poor USHL production into solid NCAA production as a rookie, which is encouraging.

This article was written by Peter Levi

March 23, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Sens Fail at the Deadline

While there are plenty of excuses, Sens GM Steve Staios ends the deadline in failure, having moved just one piece that needed to go (cf my prior concern). Kubalik will walk away for nothing, Brannstrom is still here, and so on. Yes, the market was soft, but the best GM’s figure it out and Staios did not.

That’s not to write him off or say he can’t handle the job, we’re just looking at this specific situation. On the plus side, he didn’t make any bad trades or silly additions (Boris Katchouk off waivers is fine, if perplexing). Staios hasn’t made the team any worse, but he hasn’t improved it either. We’ll have a better sense of his true capabilities at the draft and then in free agency. With that said, let’s look at the one deal he did pull off.

Tarasenko, as a Sen, performed as expected:
57-17-24-41 0.72 (-0.04 with St. Louis last year, where he was averaging +1:29 TOI)
The primary criticism was signing him in the first place–it created cap hell for Ottawa and didn’t make the team better (nor did he produce at Debrinkat levels–0.80 with the Sens last year, 0.86 with Detroit this year).

Outside of local Ottawa reporters, no one liked the Tarasenko trade, despite the limitations (supposedly Florida was the only place he’d go and his family has been living there the entire season). Both writers at The Athletic gave Staios a poor grade (a C from Dom Luszczyszyn and a C- from Sean Gentille), and I agree with them. The picks provided by the Panthers will be late in those rounds and two 3rds or a 3rd/4th aren’t likely to produce NHL players (the last time I ran the numbers about 10% of 3rd-rounders made it (the last Ottawa 3rd-rounder to pan out was Zack Smith in 2008); the picks are useful as elements for other deals)–the value is very similar to what Toronto gave up for marginal defenseman Joel Edmundson, while Seattle GM Ron Francis was able to squeeze a 2nd-rounder from the Rangers for Alexander Wennberg. Retaining half his salary this season is fine given that Norris is (again!) injured.

The brief run the Sens went on with Jacques Martin has ended and they will likely finish as a bottom-five team in. The primary problem remains goaltending. It will be interesting to see if Staios believes they have the solution in the minors with Sogaard or if they look for someone else (obviously Korpisalo isn’t the solution, but that’s only a surprise to the departed Pierre Dorion). I’d try and get a veteran goalie with a decent track record (so not the scattered records of either Forsberg or Korpisalo), and either pair them with Sogaard or stick with Forsberg until you find a better solution. That’s on-paper what Dorion did in free agency, but Korpisalo clearly does not fit that bill.

Beyond goaltending there’s the depth problem (cf), something Dorion has tried to draft for years. While Jason York (& others) want to add ‘toughness’, the problem Ottawa has is the huge talent gap beyond their top players. The bottom half of the lineup can’t produce, which makes smothering the offense easy for elite teams. Players like Kastelic, MacEwen, and Chartier don’t move the needle enough and the Sens aren’t drafting enough talent (T. Boucher etc). It will be interesting to see how Staios envisions the bottom-six and what he does to fulfill that vision.

I want to go all the way back to August to look at moves. I have St. Louis as a buyer, not just because they are technically still in the wild card race, but more for how they’ve behaved (Calgary, who are tied with them, have operated more like sellers). For conditional picks I’ve leaned on what seems most likely; ‘prospects’ includes players on two-way deals; FC=future considerations.

Sellers
Anaheim 23-36-3 14th
In: Lyubushkin (Buf); prospects: Gauthier (Phi), Mysak (Mtl), Meyers (Col); picks: 1st (24/Edm), 3rd (25/Tor)
Out: Drysdale (Phi), Lyubushkin (Car-Tor); prospects: Perreault (Mtl); picks: 2nd (25/Ana), 4th (Min/25), 5th (24/Ana)
Arizona 25-33-5 13th
In: picks: 4th (27/Edm), 5th (27/TB), 6th (24/Dal)
Out: Stecher (Edm), Zucker (Nsh), Dumba (TB); picks: 7th (24/Bos), 7th (25/Ari)
Buffalo 29-30-5 13th
In: Robinson (Clb), Byram (Col); prospects: Sjalin (Flo); picks: 4th (24/Phi), 4th (Min/25), 7th (24/Flo), 7th (25/Wsh); FC (Mtl)
Out: Lyubushkin (Ana), Mittelstadt (Col), Okposo (Flo), Johnson (Phi); prospects: Cederqvist (Mtl); picks: 7th (25/Nsh)
Calgary 31-26-5 9th
In: Kuzmenko (Van), Miromanov (Vgk), Okhotiuk (SJ); prospects: Jurmo (Van), Brzustewicz (Van), Grushnikov (Dal), Pettersen (Dal); picks: 1st (24/Van), 1st (26/Vgk), 2nd (24/Dal), 2nd (25/Vgk), 3rd (26/Van), 4th (24/NJ), 5th (24/Chi or better)
Out: Zadorov (Van), Lindholm (Van), Tanev (NJ-Dal); picks: 5th (24/Chi or better)
Chicago 16-42-5 16th
In: Beauvillier (Van), Pitlick (Pit); picks: 5th (24/Nsh)
Out: Beauvillier (Nsh); picks: 5th (24/Chi or better), 7th (26/Chi)
Columbus 22-31-10 16th
In: Nylander (Pit); prospects: Subban (Stl), Zboril (Bos); picks: 3rd (27/Bos), 4th (26/NYR), 6th (26/Pit), 7th (25/Nsh)
Out: Robinson (Buf), Peeke (Bos), Roslovic (NYR)
Minnesota 30-27-6 12th
In: Bogosian (TB); prospects: Raska (SJ), Butcher (Pit), Elson (NYR), Toporowski (Bos), Ovchinnikov (Tor); picks: 3rd (26/Col), 6th (26/Bos)
Out: Addison (SJ), Duhaime (Col), Maroon (Bos), Dewar (Tor); prospects: Cajkovic (Min), Petan (NYR)
Montreal 24-29-10 14th
In: Lindstrom (Det), Pearson (Van); prospects: Legare (Pit), Novak (Ott), Perreault (Ana), Cederqvist (Buf); picks: 1st (24/Win), 2nd (Pit/25), 2nd/3rd (25/NJ), 3rd (Van/25), 4th (Det or Bos/25)
Out: Pitlick (Pit), Hoffman (SJ), Allen (NJ); prospects: Mysak (Ana); FC (Buf)
New Jersey 31-28-4 11th
In: Allen (Mtl), Vanecek (SJ); prospects: Durandeau (NYI); picks: 2nd (25/Win), 3rd (24/Win), 4th (26/Dal), 4th (26/Win)
Out: Toffoli (Win), Kahkonen (SJ), Miller (Win); prospects: Thompson (NJ), Brady (Dal); picks 3rd/2nd (25/NJ)
Ottawa 25-32-4 15th
In: picks: 3rd (25/Flo), 4th (24/Flo); FC (Mtl)
Out: Tarasenko (Flo); prospects: Novak (Mtl)
Pittsburgh 28-25-8 12th
In: Karlsson (SJ), Pitlick (Mtl), Bemstrom (Clb), Bunting (Car); prospects: Hamaliuk (SJ), Rathbone (Van), Plasek (Van), Cajkovic (Min), Ponoarev (Car), Lucius (Car), Koivunen (Car), Waeber (Flo); picks: 2nd (24/Phi), 3rd (SJ/26), 5th (24/Car), 7th (25/Flo)
Out: DeSmith (Mtl), Pitlick (Chi), Nylander (Clb), Guentzel (Car), Ruhwedel (NYR); prospects: Legare (Mtl), Friedman (Van), Glover (Van), Butcher (Min); picks: 2nd (Pit/25), 4th (27/NYR), 6th (26/Pit)
Seattle 28-23-11 10th
In: Tatar (Col); picks: 2nd (24/NYR), 4th (25/Dal)
Out: Wennberg (NYR); picks: 5th (24/Sea)
San Jose 15-40-7 15th
In: Granlund (Pit), Rutta (Pit), Hoffman (Mtl), Addison (Min), Kahkonen (NJ), Kostin (Det); prospects: Studnicka (Van), Thompson (TB), Cooley (Buf), Edstrom (Vgk); picks: 1st (24/Pit), 1st (25/Vgk), 3rd (24/TB), 5th (24/Chi or better), 7th (25/NJ)
Out: Karlsson (Pit), Duclair (TB), Simek (Det), Okhotiuk (Cal), Vanecek (NJ); prospects: Hamaliuk (Pit), Raska (Min); picks: 3rd (SJ/26), 7th (24/NJ), 7th (25/SJ)
Washington 29-23-9 10th
In: picks: 2nd (24/Vgk), 3rd (24/NYI), 3rd (25/Car), 4th (26/Vgk), 5th (25/Chi)
Out: Mantha (Vgk), Edmundson (Tor), Kuznetsov (Car)

Buyers
Boston 37-13-15 2nd
In: Maroon (Min), Peeke (Clb)
Out: prospects: Toporowski (Min), Zboril (Clb); picks: 3rd (27/Bos), 6th (26/Bos)
Carolina 37-19-6 4th
In: Kase (Phi), Guentzel (Pit), Kuznetsov (Wsh), prospects: Burke (Col); picks: 6th (26/Tor)
Out: Bunting (Pit); prospects: Rizzo (Phi), Jones (Car), Slepets (Tor), Webber (Tor), Ponomarev (Pit), Lucius (Pit), Koivunen (Pit); picks: 2nd (24/Phi), 3rd (25/Car), 5th (24/Car), 5th (25/Car), 6th (24/Tor)
Colorado 39-20-5 4th
In: Tatar (Sea), Walker (Phi), Mittelstadt (Buf), Duhaime (Min), Trenin (Nsh); prospects: Jones (Car), Bardakov (NJ), Sward (Nsh); picks: 5th (24/Ana), 5th (25/Phi), 7th (24/Nsh)
Out: MacDermid (NJ), Byram (Buf); prospects: Burke (Car), Meyers (Ana); picks: 3rd (25/Col), 5th (24/Sea)
Dallas 38-17-9 2nd
In: Tanev (Cal-NJ); prospects: Brady (NJ), Damiani (Cal)
Out: prospects: Grushnikov (Cal); picks: 2nd (24/Dal), 4th (Dal/26)
Detroit 33-23-6 7th
In: Petry (Mtl-Pit), Simek (SJ)
Out: Lindstrom (Mtl), Kostin (Det); picks: 4th (Det or Bos/25), 7th (24/NJ)
Edmonton 38-21-2 5th
In: Henrique (Ana-TB), Carrick (Ana), Stecher (Ari); prospects: Taylor (TB); picks: 7th (24/Ana), 7th (24/Bos)
Out: picks: 1st (24/Edm), 4th (25/Edm), 5th (25/Edm), 7th (25/Flo), 7th (27/Edm)
Florida 43-17-4 1st
In: Tarasenko (Ott), Okposo (Buf); prospects: Hellberg (Pit)
Out: prospects: Sjalin (Buf), Waeber (Flo); picks: 3rd (25/Flo), 4th (24/Flo), 7th (24/Flo)
Los Angeles 32-19-11 6th
No moves
Nashville 36-25-3 7th
In: Beauvillier (Chi), Zucker (Ari); prospects: Hanzel (Col), Allison (Phi); picks: 3rd (25/Col)
Out: Trenin (Col), Gurianov (Phi); prospects: Sward (Col); picks: 5th (24/Nsh), 6th (24/Dal)
NYI 28-20-14 9th
In: Bortuzzo; prospects: Durandeau (NJ)
Out: prospects: Thompson (NJ); picks: 7th (24/NYI)
NYR 40-18-4 3rd
In: Wennberg (Sea), Ruhwedel (Pit), Roslovic (Clb); prospects: Petan (Min)
Out: prospects: Elson (Min); picks: 2nd (24/NYR), 4th (25/Dal), 4th (26/NYR), 4th (27/NYR)
Philadelphia 33-23-8 6th
In: Drysdale (Ana), Johansen (Col), Johnson (Buf), Gurianov (Nsh); prospects: Rizzo (Car); picks: 1st (25/Col), 2nd (25/Ana), 5th (24/Vgk), 5th (Car/25)
Out: Kase (Car), Walker (Col); prospects: Gauthier (Ana), Allison (Nsh); picks: 4th (24/Phi), 5th (26/Phi)
St. Louis 32-28-3 11th
In: FC (Clb)
Out: prospects: Subban (Clb)
Tampa Bay 33-25-6 8th
In: Duclair (SJ), Dumba (Ari); picks: 7th (25/Ari), 7th (25/Min), 7th (25/SJ)
Out: Bogosian (Min); prospects: Thompson (SJ); picks: 3rd (24/TB), 5th (27/TB)
Toronto 36-19-8 5th
In: Lyubushkin (Ana-Car), Edmundson (Wsh), Dewar (Min); prospects: Slepets (Car), Webber (Tor); picks: 5th (24/Van)
Out: Lafferty (Van); prospects: Ovchinnikov (Min); picks: 3rd (24/NYI), 3rd (25/Tor), 5th (25/Chi), 6th (24/Tor), 6th (26/Car)
Vancouver 41-17-7 1st
In: DeSmith (Pit-Mtl), Lafferty (Tor), Lindholm (Cal); prospects: Friedman (Pit), Glover (Pit), Cicek (SJ); picks: 5th (24/Chi or better), 6th (24/SJ)
Out: Pearson (Mtl), Beauvillier (Chi), Kuzmenko (Van); prospects: Rathbone (Pit), Plasek (Pit), Jurmo (Van), Brzustewicz (Van); picks: 1st (24/Van), 3rd (25/Van), 4th (24/NJ), 5th (24/Van)
Vegas 33-23-7 8th
In: Mantha (Wsh), Hanifin (Cal-Phi), Hertl (SJ); prospects: Vorobyov (Phi); picks: 3rd (25/SJ), 3rd (27/SJ)
Out: picks: 1st (25/Vgk), 1st (26/Vgk), 2nd (24/Vgk), 2nd (25/Vgk), 4th (26/Vgk), 5th (24/Vgk)
Winnipeg 39-17-5 3rd
In: Monahan (Mtl), Toffoli (NJ), Miller (NJ)
Out: 1st (24/Win), 2nd (25/Win), 3rd (24/Win), 4th (26/Win)

Going into the deadline, The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn wrote about five ‘buyer beware’ players and three of them were acquired: Dumba to Tampa, E. Johnson to Philadelphia, and Peeke to Boston. All three are big, physical defensemen, which is what’s in vogue and in the first two cases are purely rentals.

Other interesting notes: LA made no deals over this period (the only such team); Calgary acquired the most picks (7 and although one of those was traded away, 6 remains the most); Vegas surrendered the most (6). Teams that gave away 1st-round picks: Vegasx2 (Hertl, Hanifin), Edmonton (Henrique/Carrick), Winnipeg (Monahan), Pittsburgh (Karlsson), Vancouver (Lindholm), and Colorado (Walker; other than the Penguins these are all playoff teams). San Jose added the most NHL players (6), while they and Pittsburgh traded away the most (5 each). Pittsburgh also acquired the most prospects (8), while Carolina traded away the most (7). While the deadline was a dud for Ottawa, it was a busy time overall.

This article was written by Peter Levi

March 9, 2024
Categories: Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Sens Deadline Moves

It’s deadline time and (yet again) the Sens are sellers. I talked about this a bit before, but it’s worth going through what’s likely to happen and what I think should happen (contracts beyond this season noted). I’m not expecting the Sens to add a significant player (not that they can’t, just that nothing suggests that they are). In terms of needs, goaltending is the priority, followed by depth (both on the blueline and at forward), but the latter isn’t something they should worry about in a dead season. [Why Ian Mendes continues to put Drake Batherson on his lists is beyond me–his contract is excellent for what he does–I can’t help but wonder if there other reasons behind it (the early stain of the 2018 WJC accusations come to mind).]

Players Who Will Be Moved
Tarasenko (UFA) – He must go or they lose him for nothing; in the link above I go through his expected destinations; the team won’t get the value for him that St. Louis got last year, but he should yield a couple of picks or a pick and a prospect (highest pick being a 2nd)
Kubalik (UFA) – As above (he must go or they lose him for nothing); I think they’ll get very little for him and may have to take a salary back or retain salary (I’d guess they get a pick for him–maybe they can squeeze out a 4th)
Brannstrom (RFA/arbitration) – There is no room for him in the org, particularly since he’s on the left side (even if one of the Big Three get moved–as I think will happen–there’s Kleven behind him who is better suited to depth minutes); the price is probably a prospect and/or a pick for him (might get a 2nd for him if there are still believers in the league)

Players Who Should Move
Chabot (8.0/27-28) – I love the player, but at his cost I’d rather keep Chychrun as #2 behind Sanderson; the Sens will have to take a salary back (whether just to finish out the season or to keep is hard to say), but they should also get a prospect and a couple of picks (I’d want a 1st); this is a decision that can wait until the off-season, however
Hamonic (1.1/24-25) – He’s completely fallen apart and needs to go, but I don’t think anyone will take him, so a buyout in the off-season is likely
Korpisalo (4.0/27-28) – Has to be bought out as there’s no market for his absurd contract (I’ve seen it argued there’s too much term/money left for a buyout, but this isn’t Toronto where you can magically bury someone on LTIR like Matt Murray) [Mendes makes that argument, link above]
T. Boucher (ELC 0.863/25-26) – As a declining asset I’d move him if anyone wants him (he’s injured again)–maybe you can squeeze someone for a 2nd, but much more likely a 3rd is all you can hope for [Mendes, link above, wants to keep him because ‘he has upside’–every young player does, but they usually have shown something by this point.]

Players Who Could Move
Kelly (RFA arbitration) – Could go, but he’s cheap and an RFA so the only pressure to do so is if they want to clear roster space for prospects/fresh blood (someone like Crookshank, for instance); nothing of substance would come back (a late pick perhaps)
Mandolese (RFA arbitration) – If you prioritize Meriliainen over him (as presumably they do), he’s a third-wheel going into next season (there’s a caveat to this: if they want Sogaard to play in the NHL next year you can keep him); if they move him they get a late pick (6th) or prospect
Joseph (2.95/25-26) – I think he’s overpaid, but with the cap going up the Sens might have decided he’s worth keeping (don’t pay attention his current career numbers as they are due to usage and almost certainly not repeatable); the Sens could get a prospect and/or picks for him (might squeeze out a late 2nd for him) [Mendes considers him untouchable and doesn’t go into the potential cap problems he creates]
Norris (7.95/29-30) – I’ve begun to wonder if the org wants to move on from someone with such a short track record (just one dominant season) given his contract and with (much cheaper) centers Pinto and Grieg behind him; a salary would have to come back with a prospect and/or picks (would any other team think he’s an 8 million dollar player? Jarmo Kekalainen isn’t in the league anymore so I’m not sure)–there is, however, no specific reason to move him at the deadline (it’s much easier to move a salary like this in the off-season)

[Mendes includes Smejkal as someone who will likely be moved, which makes it clear he hasn’t watched many (if any) BSens games or had a clear understanding of what kind of player he’d be across the pond–could he be moved? Sure, it’s much more likely a disappointing AHL-veteran (Currie, for instance) gets shifted to end the lineup chaos in Belleville. His AHL list that follows seems equally random, although we’ll credit that Mendes has, perhaps, talked to the org ahead of time (doesn’t seem like it, but maybe).]

That’s how I see it. Tarasenko, Kubalik, and Brannstrom go, with 1-2 players coming back (just to finish out the season) along with 1-2 prospects and some picks (possibly two 2nds). Beyond that it’s much more up in the air and many of the players who could be moved have difficult contracts to deal with, so that may be all the Sens do (I don’t envision Staios as someone who wants to shake up the lineup too much yet).

This article was written by Peter Levi

February 25, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Goaltending, Tarasenko, Prospects, and Formenton

As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).

With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams:
Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening
Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible
Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination
Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina
Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move
Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be

My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).

The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold):
1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment
2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues)
3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet
4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling
5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20)
6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each)
7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player
8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL
9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2)
10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge
11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point
12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers)
13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that
14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental
15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)

I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.

We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.

As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).

This article was written by Peter Levi

February 19, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Another Lost Season, but Hope for the Future

The Sens have not hit the halfway point of the season, but 38-games in (squeaking past the worst team in the league this afternoon), with no significant help coming on the goaltending front (the LTIR they get from Forsberg just makes room for Pinto), Ottawa is going to miss the playoffs again and I think it’s a fitting final note to the Pierre Dorion regime (the same that had been prematurely declaring the end of the rebuild since 2019). I’d argue Dorion was damaging the organization back from when he simply managed the draft and some blame has to be given to Bryan Murry and Eugene Melnyk for buying into his bullshit. You reap what you sow and Dorion had no idea how to build a winning team despite seeing examples year after year after year (as I went over exhaustively in the link above).

Unfortunately for new GM Steve Staios (how many former NHL players are GMs now? Verbeek, Sweeney, Adams, Conroy, Kekalainen, Nill, Yzerman, Blake, Guerin, Fitzgerald, Drury, Briere, Grier, Francis, and MacLellan–16 if my counting is correct), he has a team that’s too good to rebuild (with a fanbase exasperated by the Dorion rebuild), but not good enough to compete. He has assets he can play with, but not a lot given the teams problems.

I went through the problems about a month ago, so a quick recap:
Goaltending: Korpisalo and Forsberg have been about equally bad, but we’ve had ex-Sens goaltenders post up fantastic numbers behind good defensive clubs (Filip Gustavsson and Cam Talbot). Clearly, it’s not just the goaltending (and shoutout to Joey Daccord, yet another discarded Sens ‘tender who has found success)–how goaltending coach Zak Bierk still has a job is mystery–you can see the erratic results in the minors as well.
Depth: at forward and on defense is not good enough. There’s a long list of players who should not be in the lineup and there’s very little in the system that’s NHL ready to plug those holes.

What can they do? Move bodies. A lot of bodies. Here’s who I would move and why (cap number included), keeping in mind that realistically the Sens (even if they wanted to) could not trade that many players before the deadline so I’ve highlighted them in probability (green absolutely will go, orange is 50-50, and red is my wishful thinking):

Tarasenko (5.0) – he’s on everyone’s list because of his expiring contract, although that will reduce what you can get for him (the Sens will have to take a player back for cap reasons)
Joseph (2.95/26) – Ian Mendes has bought into the hype again (what’s the definition of insanity?), but you sell high and he can’t get higher than now (the Sens problem is his contract–term/cost)
Kubalik (2.5) – he’s 28, on an affordable expiring deal, and you have a prospect who can fill his roll in Jarventie (if not this season, perhaps next), so get something for him
Brannstrom (2.0) – nothing against him, but there’s no space for his role on the team assuming we’re keeping both Chabot and Chychrun (which I would); his age (24) and decent season should increase what you can get for him
Hamonic (1.1/25) – the wheels have fallen off (just like they did in Vancouver); he really shouldn’t have been retained [After I posted this The Athletic listed him as the biggest underperformer on the team, cf, along with Kubalik above]
Kastelic (0.835/25) – there are plenty of suckers for truculence in the league–he’s averaging less TOI than Smejkal when he’s in the lineup–time to go!)
MacEwen (0.775/26) – no one plays less than he does–if you don’t trade him you’ll have to buy him out (which I would do if no one will take him); alternatively you permanently bury him in Belleville
Kelly (0.7625) – he’s on the verge of a career year (over 82 games a whole 15-points) and he’s cheap, but he’s not so good in his role that you can’t replace him with a player with more upside

You’ll note one name I constantly deride is not on this list: JBD. Why? It may be a fluke, but he hasn’t been the trainwreck that he was in the AHL (perhaps the better structure in the NHL makes it easier for him). He’s so cheap (0.805) that he’s harmless to keep if you are shifting out a large number of players (as I’m suggesting). So for now I am holding back on my policy of firing Bernard-Docker straight into orbit.

There are two other players to discuss: Giroux, not because the team wouldn’t want him, but if he wants out. As a player-directed event, we can’t know if that’s an issue, so we’ll leave it be. The other is Zub, largely because of the cap hit and term–I think he’s overpaid (4.6), but it’s not egregious and Sens get cap relief next season, so I doubt he moves.

What about the pipeline Staios is inheriting? How are things in Belleville? On an individual basis it’s a mixed bag. There are some odd things happening (no idea what coach Bell is thinking replacing Lassi Thomson on the PP with Jacob Larsson, who has the offensive instincts of a dead whale). Among the prospects Crookshank and Jarventie are the only ones who have been consistent (although the latter is currently hurt); Sokolov is slowly getting over the worst start of his career; Guenette had a fantastic start but has hit a wall (five game pointless streak and 4 over his last 12); Thomson‘s numbers have cratered (at least in part due to the PP change); T. Boucher and Ostapchuk are finding their feet, and so on. Kleven is the one guy, along with the aforementioned at the top, who might be able to make the transition, but I’d leave him in Belleville for as long as you can to get him the reps as a pro. He’s not a dominant AHLer (yet at least), so he’s going to be a depth player in the NHL if he comes up.

As for the older prospects Dorion gambled on, Smejkal has a lot of components you like, but he’s slow, doesn’t use his size, and doesn’t generate enough offense to make the leap (at 27, he has to be ready now). For the younger Matinpalo (25), defensively he’s got the tools and like all Finnish players the physical side isn’t an issue. The concern for him was production and keeping in mind he isn’t on the PP I’m not convinced there’s enough there. I think he was intimidated during his NHL audition so fans did not get a chance to see him play his game (which is quite good defensively). In a dead season after some moves, I’d be content to see if he can handle being a 6 on the blueline, but whether he has a long term future or not remains in doubt. None of the other assorted veteran players taken off the scrapheap have stood out (Highmore and Currie are underperforming, while Pilon has been average, and there’s still no reason for Imama to be there at all).

What about prospects not currently in the org? Let’s start with those signed:
Toure, 20, RD (OHL 25-6-6-12) – undrafted; an improvement over last year (as you’d expect from an older player), but unclear how well his talent will translate
Hamara (3-87/22), 19, LD (OHL 33-1-11-12) – improvement over last year, but like Toure, I don’t know how well it translates and since he’s not a big guy you want to see numbers
Donovan (5-136/22), 19, LD (OHL 36-9-21-30) – about the same pace as last year, but it’s good to see him maintain high numbers
Pettersson (3-72/22), 19, RW (SHL 22-0-1-1) – roughly the same production in the men’s league as last year, which is a bit disappointing (but not yet a big deal yet)
The bottom three all played in the WJC (absent Russia, making it feel like the 84′ Olympics–does it really matter?), but only Hamara had good results there. It also feels odd that all three OHLers have been traded, but trivial matters aside, nothing that’s happened staples any of these guys as significant NHLers in the near future (if at all).

How about the unsigned?
Halliday (4-104/22), 21, CL (NCAA 21-6-15-21) – similar to last year
Wallberg (6-168/22), 20, DL (NCAA 21-1-12-13) – these are good numbers given his unremarkable USHL season prior
Nordberg (2-64/22), 19, LD (USHL 24-1-10-11) – so-so numbers in a fairly weak junior league
O’Neill (5-143/22), 19, RW (NCAA 14-2-2-4) – coming off pretty terrible USHL numbers last year, this isn’t too bad
Reidler (5-151/22), 19, GL (USHL .902) – he’s played well
Dyck (7-206/22), 19, CL (NCAA 18-0-7-7) – switched schools and the results have improved
Nikitin (7-207/23), 19, GL (BCHL .847) – getting caved-in by tier-2 (which is still a big step-up from the Kazakh league)
Van Tassell (7-215/23), 19, CR (NCAA 12-0-1-1) – unimpressive numbers from an unimpressive USHLer
Stanley (4-108/23), 18, RD (NCAA 14-1-2-3) – fine for a rookie blueliner
Andonovski (5-140/23), 18, LD (OHL 41-3-17-20) – solid improvement over his prior season
Beckner (7-204/23), 18, CL (USHL 29-8-14-22) – similar to his BCHL production

What’s clear here is that, other than Halliday, there’s nothing coming soon and that it’s unlikely what’s coming is anything other than potential depth. There’s always a chance for a surprise, but none of the numbers suggest it.

As for picks, Dorion has peddled away a great many of them. This is what the Sens have the next year (with me assuming they will get Boston’s first-rounder instead of Detroit’s while keeping their own this year and probably next):
2024: 1st (2; Bos); 2nd, 4th (3; Det/TB), 5th, 6th
2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
2026: 3rd, 5th, 6th 7th
This means the Sens have to be in contention by 2026 because of all the capital jettisoned. Staios has to hit homeruns in this (2024) draft, since there’s nothing else on the board prepared for him. The team also has to go back to drafting for talent rather than focusing on grit. Can he do that with Dorion’s scouting team? I have no idea.

Where does this leave the Sens? They have excellent pieces: arguably a top-four (when healthy) and four top forwards in their prime (along with Giroux)–arguably six if Pinto/Greig continue developing, but we have to be careful with assumptions like that. The strange thing for Staios is that it’s what’s surrounding the talent that’s been neglected. He needs to shore up the bottom-six and bottom-pairing and restock the pool. That doesn’t mean drafting for a fourth-line center, that means drafting talented players who can be put in that role for while pressuring the person above them. That’s success–a team with talent throughout. The good thing about that is none of this requires blockbuster trades. It needs good drafting and smart moves and Staios can do both then the team isn’t far from turning this around–just not in time for this season.

This article was written by Peter Levi

January 13, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

An End to Lunacy?

For the first time since he was hired back in 2007, Pierre Dorion finally faced consequences for his actions, losing a first-round pick for botching the Dadonov trade and as a result being fired. Dorion had lost or wasted four-straight first-round picks (2021-23, plus one in 24-26), with at least three in the top-ten. That’s a terrible cost without meaningful benefit. I’m glad ownership pulled the trigger–he could only inflict more damage the longer he was retained (cf, but as we’ll go over). I’ve wanted him gone for a long, long time, well before he became the GM. This move doesn’t guarantee Ottawa will get a good GM (as expected, Steve Staios will serve as the interim manager), but I’d like to think the number of embarrassing mistakes is reduced and the team becomes more professional (cf).

One thing this debacle hints at is that the speculation that the Mann brothers (Trent and Troy) were fired for optics (cf, that is, to avoid the new owner getting honest feedback about him), could very well be true. In my opinion there were practical reasons to let both go (more Trent than Troy), but it’s possible it was purely in order for Pierre to present himself in the best light possible.

There are a lot of ways to assess Dorion, but let’s start with his background. His father had a stellar career as a scout (perhaps why Pierre has a fetish for ‘son-of’ draft/signing/hiring) and he began his career as an amateur scout in Montreal (94-95 to 04-05, under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather). The Sens signed him to be their Director of Amateur Scouting (07-08 to 08-09), then Director of Player Personal (09-10 to 13-14), Assistant GM (mid-season 13-14 to 15-16), to GM (16-17), all under Bryan Murray.

We’ll start with team performance as GM. Dorion played a major hand in the drafting prior to becoming the GM, so in many ways the initial roster is ‘his’ roster, even though Murray built that team, but we’ll get to that later.

NHL
2016-17 44-28-10 12th Boucher Lost Conference Finals
2017-18 28-43-11 30th Boucher
2018-19 29-47-6 31st Boucher/Crawford
2019-20 25-34-12 30th Smith
2020-21 23-28-5 23rd Smith
2021-22 33-42-7 25th Smith
2022-23 39-35-8 21st Smith
AHL
(Because some Western teams play 68-games, I’m positioning them just vs the East)
2016-17 28-44-4 13th Kleinendorst (final season in Binghamton)
2017-18 29-42-5 14th Kleinendorst
2018-19 37-31-8 t-10th Mann
2019-20 38-20-5 t-2nd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid)
2020-21 18-16-1 3rd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid)
2021-22 40-28-4 6th Mann Lost 1st Round
2022-23 31-31-6 14th Mann/Bell

In Dorion’s tenure the team had a miracle playoff run to start and then went into a painful rebuild it hasn’t fully pulled out of. On the AHL-side, Dorion had helped denude the prospect pool he inherited and was unable to achieve AHL-success since (in part due to Covid in part, but it’s very early for a rebuilding team to be running out of high end prospects).

Dorion deserves a lot of criticism for his trades (his comment was always don’t judge me now; I did then and we can now–you can find a complete list here). There are a lot of deals so we’ll focus on the ones I consider key/indicative. I will put them in red if it’s a fail, green if it’s a win, and orange if it’s yet to be determined.

Trades
2016-17
1st & 3rd for 1st – the Logan Brown trade; the Sens gave up what would be Michael McLeod and Brandon Gignac to move from 12 to 11 at the draft. Brown (son-of) isn’t currently playing, having dressed for only 99 NHL games (99-7-19-26) in his career. McLeod remains a useful Devil (250-20-48-68), still under contract with the team, while Gignac is a productive AHL-player.
Zibanejad for Brassard – top center for a fading veteran, I knew this was a bad move when it was made and we don’t need to dive into the numbers as Z-bad is still an incredibly productive player for the Rangers and Brassard (after his second tour in Ottawa) is retired; there were two picks thrown into the deal, with Ottawa’s (Luke Loheit) a bust and the Rangers (Jonatan Berggren) a useful part of Detroit’s prospect pool
Lazar for Jokipakka – trading Lazar is an automatic win, but putting aside bust Jokipakka, the Sens got a 2nd they used to pick Alex Formenton–his personal problems aside, as a player that’s a huge win in return for an unremarkable fourth-liner like Lazar
2017-18
Duchene for Turris and picks – the team was able to move Hammond and failed 1st-rounder Shane Bowers (still bouncing around the AHL), but gave up the 4th overall pick (Bowen Byram) and a 3rd (Matthew Stienberg; currently struggling in the AHL) without achieving anything
Brassard for Ian Cole and Filip Gustavsson – this is a weird one as it’s mostly swapping around irrelevant spare parts between three teams (Pittsburgh/Vegas; Gustavsson is his own thing below), except that the 1st-round pick Ottawa landed was later wasted (as we’ll get to) and there’s an Ottawa piece that’s still undetermined in goaltender Justus Annunen (in Colorado)
Ian Cole for prospect/pick – I don’t think much of Cole as a player, but he’s still getting regular minutes in the NHL (currently for Vancouver) and the Sens have nothing to show for it; the prospect (Nick Moutrey) is now playing tier-3 in Europe, while the pick (Alex Laferriere) is on LA’s roster
Hoffman for Boedker – another train wreck where the Sens gave up a useful player and have almost nothing left in return (certainly not the same value); Boedker was a bust, as was prospect Julius Bergman; the pick (Philippe Daoust) remains, but his future is uncertain; besides Hoffman the Sens also gave up a pick and that pick (Tyler Tullio) is a viable prospect (now in Edmonton)
1st for a 1st and 2nd – the K’Andre Miller trade, from which the Sens only have JBD remaining (the 2nd, Tychonick, is on an AHL-deal with Toronto)
2018-19
Karlsson for Norris etc – this is the deal that saved Dorion’s career; while the established players he got failed to deliver or remain (Tierney, DeMelo now in Winnipeg, and Balcers now in Europe), but it landed Norris, the pick for Stutzle, Ostapchuk (ceiling TBD), and a pick later traded (Jamieson Rees, on the last year of his ELC with Carolina–see below)
Anders Nilsson for Mike McKenna – this only appears because of the pick the Sens threw in that became goaltending prospect Arturs Silovs (in the Vancouver system)
Duchene for Abramov etc – Columbus didn’t retain Duchene and the established prospects failed out for Ottawa, so this should be a wash, except that the pick that became Lassi Thomson is part of the deal and that could turn the tide in Ottawa’s favour
Dzingel for Duclair – this should be a win for Ottawa, given the way each player’s career went, but the Sens gave up both picks acquired in the deal (two 2nd’s), both of whom are legit prospects (we’ll get to those deals later)
Stone for Brannstrom etc – while the Sens retain both Brannstrom and the pick (Sokolov) from this deal, neither of them are worth Stone and there’s no guarantee either are in the league a few years from now
2nd & 3rd for 2nd – this is the Rees trade mentioned above, where the Sens swapped that pick for Mads Sogaard, so it remains to be seen how this turns out
Brown, Zaitsev for Ceci, Harper – trading Ceci should always be a win, but not when you get Zaitsev back; this is also the trade that moved the Laferriere pick (now in LA)
2019-20
Veronneau for Luchuk – the only reason this irrelevant trade appears is that Dorion landed a pick (Vyacheslav Peksa) he later traded away and that goaltender could turn out
Pageau for 1st – that first turned into Ridley Greig (the Sens gave away the 2nd from this trade) and it remains to be seen how the former’s career goes (unlikely to match Pageau‘s, but possible)
J. Brown for 4th – the 4th didn’t turn out, so why is this here? Because no one in their right mind trades for the signing rights for Josh Brown (an irrelevant player now a spare part in Arizona)
2020-21
Matt Murray for prospect/pick – the ‘tender was (and is) a disaster and while the prospect hasn’t panned out (Gruden) the pick (Joel Blomqvist) could; the deal where Murray was dumped isn’t inherently awful, but the Sens are still paying for him via retained salary (this is the last year of that)
2nd for 2nd & 3rd – the Kleven trade; the Leafs picked up two viable prospects in the deal (Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela), so we’ll have to see who ultimately pans out
Carcone for Magwood – the former has found an NHL career in Arizona while the latter is a bit part in tier-2 Europe
2nd for Stepan – I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want Stepan at that phase of his career; the Sens gave up the pick that became Josh Doan (now in Arizona)
2nd for 2nd/5th – while undetermined, the Sens gave up on Ben Roger (having flipped the other pick) while Francesco Pinelli got an ELC from LA
Dadonov for Holden/pick – on a hockey level this is initially a win, but Holden is gone, the pick moved (Elias Pettersson in Vancouver), and Dorion lied to Vegas and got himself fired
2021-22
Gambrell trade – this is a loss not because of the pick exchanged (who didn’t turn out), but because they played Gambrell in the NHL–why?
Paul for Joseph – there’s always a chance the Sens hit a homerun with the 4th-rounder in 2024, but I doubt it
2022-23
Debricat for picks – I thought this was bad from the start and that’s not in dispute anymore–besides losing the 7th overall in Kevin Korchinski, there’s Paul Ludwinski and a 3rd-rounder this year with the Sens having nothing to show for it
Talbot for Gustavsson – even if Gus implodes with Minnesota this year, his season-to-season comparison with Talbot isn’t close
Zaitsev for picks – we don’t know if Roman Kantserov or the 4th in 2026 will turn out, but this is still a self-inflicted loss of assets
Chychrun for picks – while the Sens gave up Daniil But (12th overall) along with the 2nd they got for Connor Brown and a 2nd in 2026, if Chychrun performs well, stays healthy, and can be retained, it’s worthwhile
Patrick Brown for a pick – why trade for him? I don’t know if Ryan MacPherson will turn out, but what was the point of acquiring Brown for less than 20-games of a lost season?
Debrincat for Kubalik and picks – might as well lose on both trades involving the player; the Sens have to hope they hit a homerun with the 1st or 4th-rounder

Let’s take a tally from the above: 2-18-12. That’s awful (10% on those determined). Dorion lost most of his deals and this is echoed by his free agent signings (below). First let’s go over his draft record. One thing the media in Ottawa has always koomed over was his ability to spot talent. Let’s look shall we? How good was he (something I actually went over recently, but there are changes below)?

Dorion’s Success Rate at the Draft (2008-23)
We have to keep in mind he didn’t have full control of who was picked until 2014 (those totally due to Dorion below are in green); also keep in mind that final judgement can’t be assessed for all (noted by the third number in the assessment below). In terms of generic draft realities, there’s a difference between early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf). I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts (22-23), as it’s far too early to judge–on average at least one pick from each should turn out, but teams do completely miss. The percentage excludes the unknowns ( I’ve also highlighted a couple of ‘successes’ that I have questions about), with ‘success’ being 400 NHL games (or projected to do so), which is about five full seasons–a genuine NHL-caliber player:
1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Mika Zibanejad, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson; Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher)
1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Erik Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot; Matt Puempel, Colin White, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig)
2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Jakob Silfverberg, Shane Pinto; Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie)
2nd (eleven+): 1-4-4 20% (Robin Lehner; Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik, Jonny Tychonick; Alex Formenton, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov)
3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Zack Smith; Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen)
4th: 3-12-0 20% (Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Drake Batherson; Andre Petersson, Chris Wideman, Marcus Sorensen, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Ben Harpur, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin)
5th: 2-7-2 22% (Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman; Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic)
6th: 1-9-2 10% (Mark Stone; Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt)
7th: 1-10-2 9% (Ryan Dzingel; Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)

I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played he fits the criteria of success; I also think Curtis Lazar is a marginal NHL-player who hurts the teams he plays for (passim), but again, 400+ games, so I have to bow to the numbers. These are two players who fail the eye and stat test, but have GMs who believe in them.

Through the 14 drafts considered the Sens have 20 successes (or 1.42 per draft), which would be in the top-half of the league. That said, many of the names above were not when Pierre was holding the trigger. From 2014 and on, when he had the final say, he’s 6 for 8 (since we’re not counting 22-23). There are plenty of prospects who could still turn out and he’d just need 3 to get himself up to the top half of the league, but what’s more concerning to me is how few outside the Goldilocks zone (1st-2nd rounds) have panned out–thus far, just Batherson. To create depth, teams need to find players in later rounds–there simply aren’t enough early picks to carry you through (ask Edmonton). There could be an argument made that Trent Mann has truly run the boards since 2017, but in that case Dorion’s record is abysmal–from 2014-16 his only success is Chabot (1 for 3). That’s Darryl Sutter/Peter Chiarelli levels of failure (cf).

What can we take from his draft success? I’ll be fair to Dorion in saying he’s at least average at the draft. In time we might say slightly above or below, but what he isn’t is the savant we’ve been hearing about for almost two decades. The Sens cupboard was bare prior to the rebuild and it’s close to that now that the team is in its window (early returns for the 21-23 drafts look like a wash, with a ‘maybe’ for each of the first two). Too easily Dorion threw away draft capital to make a splash and that’s never worked out for him (as seen above). The overriding problem with the Sens right now is depth, something the draft is meant to solve.

FA Signings (Not comprehensive)
Tarasenko (2023; 1yr, 5.0) – assessment ongoing, good early returns, but the signing helped create Cap Hell
Korpisalo (2023; 5yrs, 4.0) – the term and cost are difficult to understand
MacEwen (2023; 3yrs, 0.775) – why, and why the term? He’s in the AHL now
Giroux (2022; 3yrs, 6.5) – has turned out very well
Del Zotto (2021; 2yrs, 2.0) – forced to buy him out (still on the books this season)
Dadonov (2020; 3yrs, 5.0) – arrived out of shape & disinterested; also the boondoggle leading to Dorion’s firing
Nilsson (2019; 2yrs, 2.6) – played reasonably well in his 44 appearances; now retired
Thompson (2017; 2yrs, 1.65) – signed after an awful season but an okay playoff; the Sens were forced to jettison him in his first season (by acquiring a bad contract from LA, Gaborik)
Condon (2017; 3yrs, 2.4) – yet another Pittsburgh ‘tender Dorion fell in love with (why three years on such a small sample size?); offloaded him by acquiring a bad contract from Tampa (Callahan)

Re-signed (Not comprehensive)
Zub (2022; 4yrs, 4.6) – was the cost of bringing him back too high? It remains to be seen and we have to wonder how many of his ‘upper body’ injuries in the past were also concussions
Forsberg (2022; 3yrs, 2.75) – again, why the term? An off-year last year, but he could put it back together this season
White (2019; 6yrs, 4.75) – a middling, fragile player, I have no idea what Dorion was smoking; he’s in the AHL now, but the Sens are going to be paying him until 2027-28
Smith (2017; 3yrs, 3.25) – everyone loves him, but his career was already in decline, the team was collapsing, and that’s a high number for a third-line player–traded in the final year of his deal to Chicago (for a bad contract, Anisimov)

I’m not going to try to explain the org’s love affair with Tom Pyatt, as his three pointless years were cheap and there are bigger problems. Dorion does not get the blame for Bobby Ryan‘s buyout–maybe he could have moved him instead (doubtful at that price), but the contract was Bryan Murray’s (even if he likely approved of it). This is the last year where Ryan gets paid.

Cap Hell

The Sens have no reason to be slammed against the Cap, but they are, so let’s look at why:

Removed: Debrincat (trade, 6.4), Talbot (3.666), Hamonic (re-signed, -1.9/1.1), Watson (1.5), Holden (1.3), Gambrell (0.95), Gauthier (0.8), Brown (0.75), Brassard (0.75)=total: 18.01
Added: Tarasenko (FA, 5.0), Zub (re-signed, +2.1/4.6), Korpisalo (FA, 4.0), Kubalik (trade, 2.5), Brannstrom (re-signed, +0.686/2.0), MacEwen (FA, 0.775)=total: 15.06

If you look at that and wonder how the Sens are up against it when they’ve (technically) cut almost three million from their salaries, it’s because Norris is not on LTIR and Stutzle‘s contract (8.35) has kicked in. The Sens also still have almost 3.5 million in dead money owed to buyouts or retention (this would be more than enough to re-sign Pinto if it was off the books). The Sens have to move someone to bring Pinto in, barring a long term injury.

There are a lot of ‘why’s’ with Dorion’s moves above. If you don’t believe in Forsberg, why not move him along with signing Korpisalo? If you aren’t sure about Korpisalo, why the term/money? I am less bothered by the Tarasenko signing since it’s just a one-year commitment and he’s making less than Debrincat (who ostensibly he’s replacing). It’s in net where the cap problems are manifest, with two unproven ‘tenders who have multiple years left on (reasonably) hefty salaries. This entire mess means it’s almost certain that the overpaid Joseph gets moved (there’s no other contract that really works), barring a season-ending injury for someone.

The final thought is how bush league in appears to be that the NHL did not inform the prospective new owner about either the Pinto situation (suspended for sports gambling) or Dadonov‘s. It seems like they withheld the information to keep the price of the club as high as possible and I suspect, when the dust clears, the Sens might get a reprieve on their penalty similar to what happened to New Jersey in respect to the Kovalchuk debacle long ago (time will tell, but there’s no excuse for the NHL to not tell Andlauer, just as there was no excuse for Dorion to not tell Vegas about Dadonov–and I’m not the only person with this belief). All that aside, I’m glad Dorion’s gone and I hope Staios et al can help the team going forward.

This article was written by Peter Levi

November 2, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

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