So many hilarious things came out of the town halls held by Eugene Melnyk and Pierre Dorion that I felt compelled to go through at least a some of them. Let’s preface this with a few reminders:
-Melnyk left his company Biovail in 2007 due to SEC legal action for fraud where “Biovail actively misled investors and analysts about the reasons for the company’s poor performance”
-then in 2011 he was banned for five years from senior roles at public companies in Canada by the OSC in relation to the same issues

This is not someone with shinning integrity and his unintentionally hilarious visits to Toronto radio just add to the perception of him being completely clueless.

Town Hall Highlights

As Beata Elliott points out (link above) it’s more than a little odd that the org attempted to limit coverage of their town hall when the goal was to communicate with the fans. However, the brain trust is very old fashioned and I think they have a hard time understanding how modern media works and, ergo, how easily recordings of the event would slip out

The comments about Erik Karlsson, however inconsistent, illustrate that it’s gotten through Melnyk’s head that trading him might be a financial debacle in terms of season tickets; I don’t mean that they won’t eventually trade EK, but it might be delayed until the trade deadline next season hoping fan outrage will have died down by then

Melnyk’s struggle to apologize for his own comments were fantastic–not that he struggled, but that the simple act of an apology was so difficult for him that he had to fabricate false reporting when his comments are readily available for anyone to check and see that he did say what was reported

It’s no surprise the org believes in “fake news” and think the media is attempting to distort things; Ottawa’s media is among the tamest imaginable (which is why I almost never cite it anymore)–the tactic of blaming the media is meant to deflect blame, which is a strong part of how both Melnyk and Dorion operate, but there’s also bitterness on Melnyk’s part for his various foibles being exposed (see below)

I think Melnyk’s comment about “bloggers” is, if not simply generic, aimed at Travis Yost from his days on Hockybuzz (in 2013 specifically)–not that others (like Nichols) haven’t written hard-hitting pieces on the team, but in terms of impact on the team I suspect his pieces from back in the day on Melnyk’s financial struggles did not sit with equanimity (I seriously doubt Melnyk/Dorion read blogs as a normal part of their routine)

I’ve rarely discussed the Lebreton Flats arena because I thought it unlikely to ever happen–no mayor wants to take a bath on a second arena and then have to deal with an empty one in Kanata. Back in 2014 I thought the team was simply looking to leverage further concessions at Scotia Bank Place, and when I realized the move was something desperately desired that the threat to leave was leverage for that purpose. His promise to keep the team in Ottawa is irrelevant since I think it’s the NHL that’s insisting the team stay

It’s funny how far he had to reach to find ancillary things to blame and the picked something that’s been within his power to change the entire time (parking)

The comments from Dorion were more disheartening (if not surprising), saying he feels a smaller hockey ops staff has a stronger say (which is simply ridiculous), and while “numbers doesn’t equal quality” is sometimes true the corollary of that isn’t ‘less is more’

In terms of the budget there was no suggestion they will spend more where they need it (scouting, pro and amateur, in particular), with comments only about how great pre-existing facilities are and Dorion spending money on players (I know we all feel better with Tom Pyatt and Alex Burrows on the roster).

Is any of this surprising? For the most part I think the answer is no, although I am surprised they are backtracking on moving Karlsson (at least with their rhetoric), which must indicate how much that’s impacting season ticket sales.

I’ve had this bit of news floating around for quite awhile, but didn’t have any particular place to put it. The Sens talking about the media is the excuse I’m using. Back in late November Postmedia shut down a bunch of community newspapers after acquiring them from Torstar (21 of the 22)–the latter also shut down 11 papers it received in the deal. This story resonated with me because of the research I did about a year ago over newspaper circulation and ownership (at the time talking about how Postmedia’s Paul Godfrey injected his conservative opinions into the papers he ran and the potential impact that had on their sports coverage). While I think newspapers are like the dinosaurs waiting for their Chiczulub Crater it’s sad to see hard working journalists lose their jobs.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 12, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Three more games are in the books for the BSens and, with Kleinendorst forced to play prospects, the team’s results are improving (4-4-0 in their last eight). The coach’s erratic decisions still impact special teams, but with his fate sealed one way or another (I think Randy Lee will let him go to provide a scapegoat for yet another year of incompetence in the AHL) there’s less need for Kurt to ram underperforming vets down our collective throats (for those who missed it, incidentally, check out my March report on the team). Here’s a look at the games:

Belleville 1 Springfield 2
Boxscore
Shots: 34-26
PP: 0-7 (including a short 5-on-3)
PK: 3-5
Scoring chances: 15
Key saves: 4
The Goals
1. Springfield PP – top-shelf through a crowd
2. Springfield PP – shot floats between Gustavsson’s arm and body
3. Gagne bangs in a loose puck in front with the goalie pulled

Notable plays: Formention driving the net to draw a penalty (first); Sieloff can’t make a pass so Formenton misses the opportunity for a breakaway; Rodewald takes a puck to the face and goes down (second; stays in the game); Springfield hits the post (second); Paul hits the post (great feed from Formenton; third)

Belleville 5 Rochester 1
Boxscore
Shots: 29-33
PP: 2-6
PK: 4-5
Scoring chances: 9
Key saves: 12
The Goals
1. Rochester PP – through the legs from the slot
2. Kelly scores on a breakaway shorthanded
3. Leier tips in a one-timer from the point
4. Paul bangs in a loose puck in front
5. PP Rodewald scores from the slot
6. PP Paul scores short side top-shelf from the dot

Notable plays: Formenton injured (first); Sturtz pulled down on a partial breakaway (second); Amerks hit the crossbar (second); Ciampini boarded (second; he was okay); Leier can’t make the pass on a 2-on-1 (third)

Belleville 3 Laval 2 (OT)
Boxscore
Shots: 33-45
PP: 0-2
PK: 3-3
Scoring chances: 9
Key saves: 9
The Goals
1. Leier scores using the D as a screen
2. Lajoie’s floater bounces in off two Laval D
3. Laval with a tip in front
4. Laval off a draw (wrister through traffic)
Rodewald with the shootout winner (deke)

Notable plays: Laval hits the crossbar (second); great pass by Paul to Moutrey who can’t connect his stick to the puck (second); terrible turnover by Selleck requires a great save from Gustavsson (third); Rodewald hits the post (third); Sturtz accidentally clips Moutrey with his stick (third)

Shootout
Gustavsson stops deke
Leier loses control of the puck on the deke
Gustavsson stops deke
Gagne stopped on slapper
Gustavsson stops a shot for the five hole
Paul loses control on the deke
Gustavsson stops deke
Dziurzynski stopped on a wrister
Gustavsson stops a shot high far side
Rodewald scores on a deke

Thoughts: both goaltenders played well (Gustavsson didn’t have much to do in the loss, but was very good in his win; Hogberg had his best start since shutting out Rochester way back in February). Since Mike Blunden‘s injury the forward groupings on the PK have been incredibly varied and that’s become the case both on the powerplay and with the defense on the PK as the pressure to play younger players continues.

Individual notes:
–Ryan Scarfo continues not to impress (12-0-1-1) despite a ton of opportunity
–Boston Leier, who I was iffy on to start with, was rounding into form offensively (8-4-2-6) when the team released him so he could finish school; definitely needs work defensively, but there’s more potential there than I thought initially
-Four periods of Alex Formenton left me wanting more–the BSens are a slow team and his speed made a big difference
-I’ve been happy with Parker Kelly thus far–hard to judge a guy whose center is Dizzy, but good speed and hands in the limited viewing thus far
–Andrew Sturtz looked good playing with Formenton, but since has been largely invisible
–Daniel Ciampini has been playing regularly down the stretch and done his future prospects in the AHL no favours as he’s slumped horribly (no points in eight games)
-Speaking of disasters, you can see why Columbus was eager to dump Nick Moutrey (13-1-1-2), who despite all sorts of opportunities has no offensive ability whatsoever
-Org favourite Tyler Randell was happily out of the lineup for four games, but re-emerged to do nothing against Laval (he was, at least, kept off the PK)
–Eric Selleck continues to play like Eric Selleck (15-2-1-3) and for a supposed enforcer has remained invisible when other teams take shots at his teammates (most notably in the game that cost Ben Sexton the rest of the season)–he’s still getting PK time for reasons unknown
-I thought Macoy Erkamps had been banished from the lineup forever, but inexplicably he played against Laval after being scratched the last nine games (he can’t skate and has no hands, so I’m not sure why they bothered)
-I was happy to see Max Lajoie finally get a goal–well deserved in game 53 for a guy with talent who has been jerked around much of the season
-Poor Christian Jaros–he was on for both powerplay goals the team scored against Rochester, but then barely played on the PP vs Laval
-I mentioned when the team acquired David Dziurzynski that he doesn’t really move the needle and despite an ocean of ice time he’s had just one assist in his last five games
–Nick Paul continues to lobby for a future contract as his hot streak continues (24-11-7-18)–I’m not convinced that’s enough for us to ignore his horrendous first half
-Kleinendorst appears to be working hard to help Jack Rodewald out by giving him a ton of ice time which has him finally pulling in slightly better numbers (16-6-2-8)
–Andreas Englund‘s recall made no sense, but didn’t impact the team

Just three games remain in the season and the questions about what will happen going forward abound. My guess is that we’ll be stuck with Randy Lee for yet more terrible GMing at this level, but with what coach is (I think) an open question. Randy is only happy with coaches who share his outdated notions however, so I’m not anticipating an enlightened hire.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 9, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The last full month of games is in the books for the dundering BSens. I mentioned in my last review just how delightfully incompetent GM Randy Lee has been and let’s keep that fresh in our minds (I shed some tears realizing the ebullient Kevin Lee hasn’t been reading):
2014-15 34-34-8 .500 (Richardson)
2015-16 31-38-7 .454 (Richardson)
2016-17 28-44-4 .395 (Kleinendorst)
2017-18 26-39-5 .407 (Kleinendorst)
The org has that magic talent of combining a clueless GM with a clueless coach (don’t be distracted by Richardson’s “better” performance, as he had more talented rosters). Prospects are, to a large extent, a product of amateur scouting, but the horrific pro signings and play time are down to the org and they fail harder than most.

As for the month itself, the team was 5-6-1, which is identical to their January record and on par with most of the months this year (December and February are the months that dragged the team well below the .500 mark). As for the underlying numbers: some continued to improve (as they did in February), with the team giving up the fewest goals in a month this season (3.08) along with the lowest goal differential (-3) and the most shots-per-game since December (27.3). The team would have also had its smallest shot deficit in any month were it not for the disastrous game against Toronto March 4th where they were outshot 51-16. Special teams are a different story, with the moribund PK dropping back down to its usual efficiency (77.08%) while the PP crashed down to 10.63% due to a mix of injuries/call-ups and Kleinendorst’s erratic decisions.

The Roster

Kyle Flanagan and Francis Perron missed the entire month due to injury (the former has only managed to play 17-games all season); Mike Blunden’s injury is one of the few that actually benefits the team (3-3-0 without him in March and 12-11-2 all season)–he’s one of several veterans Kleinendorst can’t help but overplay despite his many deficiencies. Gabriel Gagne and Christian Jaros were the only other significant players who missed a lot of time. Unlike Blunden, Jaros’ absence has hurt the team (9-21-2; with him 17-18-3). On the call-up side of things, Max McCormick and Ben Harpur spent the entire month in Ottawa, while Jim O’Brien (!), Filip Chlapik, and Eric Burgdoerfer (!) spent significant time there.

Additions to the lineup included former BSen David Dziruzynski (who had failed out of Utica). The team also added ATO’s Boston Leier and Ryan Scarfo. In the former case Leier is yet another Canadian University product (ala Jordan Murray)–his cousin Taylor is a Flyer draft pick. It’s not common for University products to pan out in the AHL much less the NHL, but at least offense is the reason he was taken (he finished second on his team in points and points-per-game). As for Scarfo, who played most of the month, he arrives after a career senior year at Union College where he lead his team in scoring. Neither player has been particularly impressive (despite oceans of TOI), although Leier has (statistically) showed more.

Finally we get to the five-headed monster in goal thought we were getting. Andrew Hammond, who hadn’t started since January 10th, was sent down to Colorado’s affiliate towards the end of the month, removing him from the situation. Chris Driedger, who hasn’t dressed since February 24th, has been banished down to Brampton in the ECHL and regular starts have slowly chipped away at what were incredible numbers. Filip Gustavsson, who arrived after Lulea’s season ended, was then simply the third head of a three-headed monster. While Kleinendorst would clearly like to start Danny Taylor every game the org has mandated he play the rookies such that Taylor was actually called up to Ottawa to make some space (Marcus Hogberg has been shuttling between Belleville and Brampton all season). Gustavsson has had a solid start, but Hogberg remains incredibly fragile and clearly needs the summer to clear his head (something reflected in him bombing out in his last three starts in Brampton).

It’s worth noting that both O’Brien and Sexton had season-ending injuries in the final game in March. Sexton’s absence can’t really be replaced, while O’Brien’s was always a mixed bag (a great penalty killer at this level, but Kleinendorst couldn’t help but overplay him).

Stats (arranged by points-per-game; ELC’s in green, ATO’s in blue)

Filip Chlapik 7-2-5-7 1.00
Colin White 9-3-4-7 0.77
Ben Sexton 11-3-4-7 0.63
Nick Paul 8-1-4-5 0.62
Boston Leier 5-2-1-3 0.60
Ville Pokka 12-3-4-7 0.58
Jack Rodewald 12-5-1-6 0.50
Max Reinhart 12-2-4-6 0.50
David Dziurzynski 4-1-1-2 0.50
Ethan Werek 9-1-3-4 0.44
Daniel Ciampini 12-2-3-5 0.41
Max Lajoie 12-0-5-5 0.41
Gabriel Gagne 6-2-0-2 0.33
Jordan Murray 12-2-2-4 0.33
Christian Jaros 7-1-1-2 0.28
Erik Burgdoerfer 7-0-2-2 0.28
Eric Selleck 11-2-1-3 0.27
Tyler Randell 10-0-2-2 0.20
Jim O’Brien 5-0-1-1 0.20
Macoy Erkamps 5-0-1-1 0.20 (ECHL 1-0-0-0)
Pat Sieloff 12-0-2-2 0.16
Mike Blunden 6-0-1-1 0.16
Andreas Englund 7-1-0-1 0.14
Nick Moutrey 9-1-0-1 0.11
Ryan Scarfo 9-0-1-1 0.11
Cody Donaghey ECHL 12-3-2-5

Danny Taylor 3-1-1 .929 2.59
Filip Gustavsson 1-1-0 .923 2.61
Marcus Hogberg 1-4-0 .878 3.48 (ECHL 1-2-0 .877 4.09)
Chris Driedger ECHL 4-5-1 .909 3.01

Chlapik had just enough time to surpass O’Brien as the team’s scoring leader as well as become second on the team in points-per-game (behind Sexton) before being brought up to the NHL. Ciampini’s five-points are the most he’s had any month this season. Sieloff broke a 32-game pointless streak, Englund a 59-game goalless streak (the entire season), and Werek a 20-game pointless streak. Both Gustavsson and Taylor had similar numbers in goal, while Hogberg’s declined slightly (not being that different than his numbers in January).

Special Teams

Powerplay 10.63%
The worst percentage of the season is coming off the heels of the best in February. The major change precipitating the fall was Chlapik being recalled to Ottawa and being replaced by Murray on the point. The second unit continues to struggle, although it did break a 21-game goalless streak thanks to Kleinendorst demoting Pokka to it for two games.
Forward Usage Frequency: Sexton, Chlapik, White, O’Brien, Paul, Gagne/Blunden
Defense Usage: Pokka, Murray, Lajoie, Jaros
On-ice for Goals Scored
Forwards: White, Chlapik, Paul, Sexton/O’Brien
Defense: Pokka/Jaros, Murray

Looking at the results we can see the specter Blunden’s unfortunate regularity on the PP matched by his inability to produce on it. O’Brien’s small sample size mean his numbers can’t be taken at face value.

Penalty Kill 77.08%
Forward Usage: Sexton, Blunden, White, O’Brien, Paul
Defense Usage: Burgdoerfer, Sieloff, Englund, Lajoie
On-ice for Goals Scored
Forwards: Sexton, Paul, O’Brien, Moutrey, White
Defense: Lajoie, Burgdoerfer, Sieloff, Englund

The Blunden addiction continues to be illustrated above (usage vs performance). Kleinendorst’s very narrow deployment on the blueline (with one pairing playing all or most of a penalty) makes it more difficult to parse the numbers. Englund proved to be an enormous drag on Sieloff’s normally reliable numbers and while Burgdoerfer is an improvement neither is as effective on longer shifts. Lajoie’s sprinkling has been sporadic and limited.

5-on-5

The bizarre forward lines continue, although slowly Kleinendorst has been assembling either a competent first or second line. After putting lumbering goon Selleck on the first or second line in four of his first five games (beginning in February) he’s been banished to the bottom-six since (the pressbox is where he belongs, but this is a Randy Lee team, so useless players need to play); leading scorer Chlapik only spent half the time on the third-line (ahem); Sexton and White, at least, were consistently on the top lines. This mild improvement, however erratic (Scarfo had four games on the first-line?), is one of the reasons the team’s overall numbers (shots, goals) improved. On defense there’s still far too much Burgdoerfer, Sieloff, and Englund, but at least Lajoie and Jaros are getting more ice time (Lajoie in particular). Kleinendorst has also considerably cut back on Murray’s TOI, which contributed to a lot of the chaos defensively. Just to highlight some of the goofy lines in March:
(2nd) Selleck (0.13)-Reinhart (0.35)-Blunden (0.36) March 3rd/4th (both losses, no goals)
(2nd/1st) Moutrey (0.21)-O’Brien (0.48)-Rodewald (0.40) March 23rd-25th/30th (2-2, but no goals)
It’s not just the players on the lines, but who isn’t that’s always puzzling (Chlapik was on the third line, for example, while Selleck was playing on the second on what must have been the slowest line in the AHL).

The arrival of various prospects for the final few games of the season will be a breath of fresh air for the team, but it’s difficult to get excited about next season since: 1) Randy Lee will be in place, 2) even if Kleinendorst is let go they’ll likely hire someone just as bad, 3) good prospects will be rushed to Ottawa. Regardless, there’s no harm in hoping for positive change.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 5, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

It was been a busy weekend for me so I caught both of these games on replay. Blurry vision in Syracuse below (screen capture of “best quality”).

Boxscore
Shots: 28-30
PP: 0-5
PK: 3-3
Scoring chances: 5
Key saves: 7
The Goals
1. Leier with a move right in front
2. Syracuse – 2-on-1 scores with a move to the backhand
3. Syracuse – one-timer from the top of the slot
4. Syracuse – off a won faceoff a wrist shot from the slot goes in high short side
5. Syracuse – cross-ice one-timer from the faceoff dot
Notable plays: Selleck misses the net from two-feet in front (second); Paul stopped on a penalty shot (third)

Boxscore
Shots: 29-23
PP: 0-2
PK: 2-3
Scoring chances: 7
Key saves: 3/0
The Goals
1. LV – 2-on-1 keeps and scores low far side through Hogberg
2. LV PP – dribbler goes through Hogberg’s legs (a really bad goal to give up)
3. LV – 2-on-1 keeps and scores low far side
4. Murray scores on a 4-on-2 while Sexton is down from a blind hit to the head
5. Rodewald bangs in his own rebound
6. LV – empty-netter

Notable plays: Sexton gets drilled with a hard hit and struggles to get up (first); Burgdoerfer gets away with boarding a Phantom (second); O’Brien hit in the corner and slow to get up (third); Sexton takes a hit to the head and has to be helped off the ice (third); needing a goal with the net empty Kleinendorst puts on…Sieloff (again!)

Hogberg was pulled for the fourth time this season, having given up one really bad goal and another that was iffy. Gustavsson, who relieved him, didn’t have much to do in the third, but was (to my mind) better in the game he lost to Syracuse than his opening win over Toronto. The hit to the head on Ben Sexton was hard to watch and you worry more about his long term health than anything hockey related.

Things of note:
-Kleinendorst’s cluelessness on the powerplay continues as PP dud Jordan Murray has put the breaks to the first unit’s efficiency; there’s also a collection of underperforming forwards making the second unit a joke
-I mentioned on Twitter that it’s clear that Marcus Hogberg has lost his confidence; it’s difficult to say exactly why (you can point to a lot of reasons), but he should be better than he has been. My feeling is either you give him a clean slate next season (preferably with a new coach and as part of the regular AHL-rotation) or you move him on
–Jim O’Brien‘s return has been met with the usual mountain of TOI resulting in…basically nothing for the first-line center (5-0-1-1)
–Nick Paul has been valiantly using the garbage end of the season to impress someone (21-9-6-15), but I’m not buying the production as a sign that anything has fundamentally changed yet
-The misplaced praising of Burgdoerfer never does stand-up to scrutiny and despite an ocean of playing time since his return he’s as lackluster as ever (7-0-2-2)–do yourself a favour and do not play the Burgdoerfer-turnover drinking game
–Max Lajoie quietly had his most productive month of the season (12-0-5-5), largely aided by increased playing time
-The BSens weird losing streak when they are tied or lead in shots continues (0-4-1); prior to it they were 7-4-0 when in that situation (well above their normal winning percentage)
-Acquisition dud Eric Selleck continues to clog up the lineup–beyond not serving his supposed role of intimidating teams into not running his teammates, he’s 13-2-1-3 and the team’s record with him in the lineup is a horrendous 4-8-1 (the one game he missed was their 4-2 win over Toronto)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 2, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Just like the BSens recent set of games this post is a 3-in-3. I was able to catch the first game live, but the other two were caught on replay. Like a lot of bad teams the BSens are on a bit of a streak (for them), going 5-4-1 through March, which ties the most points in any month this season (January) with two games in hand. While the org is likely telling itself this is a sign that the ship is righting, it’s simply an expected consequence of playing meaningless games late in the season.

Speaking of the org, its love affair with bringing back former members of the roster (Chris Kelly, Joe Corvo, etc) continues, as they picked up Utica castoff David Dziurzynski–Dizzy failed out of the DEL last year (50-11-6-17) and after struggling with Florida in the ECHL (19-2-1-3) he spent almost a third of the season accomplishing just as little with the Comets (27-3-3-6). I like Dizzy, but just like Eric Selleck he doesn’t move the needle in terms of helping the team. Speaking of the roster, it’s worth noting Andrew Hammond was re-assigned by Colorado to their affiliate (San Antonio) rather than to Belleville, and Filip Gustavsson (who started against Laval on Sunday) has taken his old number, so he won’t be back. The four-headed monster in goal remains unchanged.

Boxscore
Shots: 27-33
PP: 0-2
PK: 2-3
Scoring chances: 10
Key saves: 6
The Goals
1. Werek intercepts the puck at the blueline and scores with a low wrist-shot
2. Toronto – bang in a rebound (Leier and Murray slow on coverage)
3. Toronto PP – great passing (Selleck asleep on coverage)
4. Toronto – 3-on-2 against (Reinhart lazy on the backcheck) with the high man scoring through traffic
5. Toronto – bang in their own rebound (fourth line embarrassingly running around ineffectively)
6. White bangs in Pokka’s rebound

Notable plays: Sieloff gets crushed resulting in a fight (Marlie knocked out; first); Werek scores after the whistle (second)

Belleville 4, Toronto 2

Boxscore
Shots: 31-33
PP: 0-5
PK: 4-4
Scoring chances: 10
Key saves: 5
The Goals
1. Murray scores from the top of the slot (defenseman tipping his shot)
2. Reinhart scores in the slot
3. Toronto – Leier doesn’t collapse down low leaving a Marlie open to bang in a pass from behind the net
4. Toronto – score on a 5-on-2 rush
5. Moutrey scores from a terrible angle
6. White with a shorthanded empty-netter

Notable plays: O’Brien misses the net on a 2-on-1 (first); Murray down in pain after a hit (stayed in the game; first)

Belleville 8, Laval 2

Boxscore
Shots: 32-39
PP: 2-4
PK: 3-4
Scoring chances: 15
Key saves: 5
The Goals
1. Laval – Lajoie turns it over and Laval scores through Burgdoerfer
2. White SH deke on a breakaway
3. Pokka PP – Reinhart misses an empty-net but Pokka bangs in the missed shot
4. Pokka PP – after a 5-on-3 expires he scores with a low shot from the top of the circle
5. Laval PP – Sieloff is slow to get into position leaving his check wide open to deflect in a point shot (Burgdoerfer’s check was also open in front, but the shot didn’t go to that side)
6. Jaros – just as the powerplay expires he scores on a low one-timer
7. Dziurzynski – bangs in a rebound
8. Leier is gifted an empty net by White on a 3-on-1
9. Selleck scores off a Pokka rebound
10. Pokka with the hat-trick as his point shot trickles in

Notable plays: Randell fumbles the puck in front of the net and can’t get a shot (first); Selleck jumps a guy (Gregoire) and a bruha breaks out (third)

Three different goaltenders played in what were three similar games. Each ‘tender made a similar number of key saves and the goals they gave up were also quite similar (results of bad coverage), so what was the difference? The game Hogberg lost was also the game the BSens lost the special teams battle–it’s also the game they had the fewest shots, fewest powerplays, and fewest goals. I feel like I need to dig deeper on Hogberg than I did in my prospect review because while he was giving up some bad goals earlier in the season it seems like he’s also been quite unlucky–I need to do the digging before I can be definitive about it (maybe it is as simple as he’s struggling to adapt to the smaller ice or he’s not as good against the game that’s played on it).

As for the newly minted Filip Gustavsson: he really didn’t have much to do in the Laval game. The Rocket fired a lot of shots, but didn’t have many great chances. The most noticeable thing was he was calmer in net than Hogberg, but it’s one game, so I’d take that assessment with a grain of salt.

The eight-goal outburst against the hapless Rocket is the biggest output of the season for Belleville (two more than the previous high, their 6-2 win over Leigh Valley in November). It’s one of those games where virtually everyone was racking up points so the notable performances were: Ville Pokka‘s (whom resident genius Kurt Kleinendorst banished to the second unit PP the previous game despite him improving the team’s lackluster powerplay) and Colin White. The first-rounder has been enormously inconsistent offensively this season, although some of that can be blamed on bizarre usage. As for Pokka, the points are an important part of him getting a new contract (with Ottawa or someone else).

A number of streaks were broken:
-the second unit PP scored for the first time since January (thanks to Pokka), a streak lasting a mindboggling 22-games
-Pokka’s first goal (goals) as a BSen (16 games in)
-Lajoie’s first PP point since December
-Murray’s first PP point since January (he broke a 13-game pointless streak in the win over Toronto)
-Jaros broke an 11-game goalless drought
-Werek had his first assist (assists) since January (as well as his first multi-point game)
-Moutrey had his first point since being acquired (taking him 8-games)
-the team scored multiple PP-goals for the first time since February 19th (5-4 loss to Utica)
-the scoring chances in the Laval game were the most since February 9th (7-4 loss to Toronto)

A successful weekend of sorts, although all the annoying idiosyncrasies of the season. It’s interesting that Kleinendorst has been ramming Ryan Scarfo down the throat of the lineup given his general reluctance with talented prospects (pressure from above perhaps?). I haven’t been impressed with the bulk of the additions (old or new), but it has been nice to have Christian Jaros back, albeit with limited ice time.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 26, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Interest in the Sens AHL affiliate has always been limited, but the dumpster fire in Belleville’s inaugural season makes that indifference even stronger as fans want the few talented players up in Ottawa. I’d rather have development occur in the AHL (with the exception of a player like Thomas Chabot who doesn’t need it), albeit with the current coaching staffs (staves? rummodlic gamol Englisc) it’s not likely either environment is the best for development.

I’ve limited this exploration to players on ELCs–I don’t think there are hidden depths to explore in the current crop of four-year players like McCormick or Driedger. What I’ll specifically look at, along with the obvious numbers, is their performance through the vagaries of the lineup along with special teams (certain players, like Filip Chlapik, have been jerked around all season). The players are arranged by position (forward, defense, goaltender) and then points-per-game (PPG); I’ve detailed their performance by line or pairing, along with how the team has performed with them on the powerplay (including their relative usage on first or second units), along with their performance on the penalty kill where applicable. Any stat that is a team-high I’ve highlighted in bold.

Team numbers to keep in mind: Belleville is a low scoring team and this depresses offensive totals. On special teams they’ve had 36 PPG’s this season through 456 shifts, or 7.8% per shift; the first unit has scored 31 of those goals in 264 shifts (11.7%), while the second unit has just 5 goals in 192 shifts (2.6%); the team has given up 64 PPG’s vs 701 forward shifts (or 90.8% per shift), with 64 vs 540 defense-pairing shifts (88.1%)–the difference between forward/defense shifts on the PP is negligible.

Filip Chlapik (20, C/L) 50-10-20–30 PPP 12 0.60 93 shots
Lines (only 5-on-5 points included)
1 3-0-0-0 0.00
2 22-2-7-9 0.41
3 18-2-3-5 0.27
4 7-3-1-4 0.57
Special Teams (on-ice for goals for PP or against for PK)
PP 9.7% (spent 78.9% on the first unit; further breakdown below)

Jerked around by the coaching staff all season (for reasons known only to themselves), his relatively consistent production has allowed him to slowly claw his way to the top of the scoring pile (although he still trails Sexton in PPG).  Ottawa’s merciful removal of Jim O’Brien and Max McCormick have provided him the ice time he’s needed to start to flourish. His overall PP percentage seems a bit low, but when you breakdown his unit time he’s on the high end for both (5.1% on the second unit and 14.9% on the first). Oddly enough what’s allowed him to get top PP time since February is Kleinendorst moving him to the point–prior to that other players were slotted in the center or leftwing position he’d otherwise occupy.

Colin White (21, C/R) 44-8-14-22 PPP 8 0.50 82 shots
Lines
1 11-0-2-2 0.18
2 19-4-4-8 0.42
3 13-2-2-4 0.30
4 1-0-0-0 0.00
Special Teams
PP 12.9% (spent 98.5% on the first unit)
PK 92.2%

With higher pedigree Kleinendorst hasn’t messed around with him as much as Chlapik, although his numbers at this level are a bit lower than expected. Coming into March he was the best penalty killer on the team, but Sexton has now passed him (not that #2 is a bad sign). The only complaint you can make about him is the aforementioned production.

Nick Paul (23, C/LW) 47-11-10-21 PPP 10 0.44 94 shots
Lines
1 19-1-6-7 0.36
2 25-4-0-4 0.16
3 2-0-0-0 0.00
Special Teams
PP 10.0% (spent 76.7% on the first unit)
PK 91.8%

As a third-year pro he should be better than this. Paul has enjoyed the most consistent top-six ice time among the prospects, but the numbers just aren’t there. What’s become clear is when surrounded with talented linemates he can produce at a certain level in the AHL, but that’s just not going to cut in the NHL. Like Chlapik he hasn’t consistently been on the first PP unit, but his production here is just as hinged to linemates (he’s just 2.7% on the second unit vs 17.6% on the first). His penalty killing has been solid, but for whatever reason Kleinendorst has used him there inconsistently (preferring talentless grinders like Tyler Randall or the newly acquired Eric Selleck). What this season has said to me is that he’s not an NHL-talent, but he can be a useful AHL forward.

Jack Rodewald (24, RW) 51-11-11-22 PPP 1 0.43 84 shots
Lines
1 15-2-2-4 0.26
2 27-7-7-14 0.51
3 7-1-1-2 0.28
4 2-0-1-1 0.50
Special Teams
PP 5.4% (spent 28.1% on the first unit)
PK 85.4% 48-7

The Sens had him on a safe, multi-year AHL-contract and threw it all away after he had a hot start to the season. Rodewald went cold and with the season near its end the 24-year old isn’t any better than he was previously. Unlike the rookies above, however, he’s enjoyed vastly favourable 5-on-5 usage (where he has more points than everyone else, but that’s impacted by the increased TOI to do so). Even more so than Nick Paul above, he cannot produce without talented linemates (think of Colin Greening–good size, good speed, decent shot, but unable to generate anything on his own). His lackluster PP production can be linked (in part) to usage, although with so many reps on the second unit he is clearly part of the issue (12.9% on the first, 2.5% on the second). On the PK he’s been an absolute disaster and Kleinendorst moved away from using him there fairly early in the season.

Gabriel Gagne (21, C/W) 60-18-5-23 PPP 4 0.38 153 shots
Lines
1 28-6-4-10 0.35
2 7-2-0-2 0.28
3 16-2-1-3 0.18
4 9-4-0-4 0.44
Special Teams
PP 6.3% (spent 29.7% on the first unit)

I thought he might be a bust last season, but he’s shown signs of life this year even though his numbers aren’t overwhelming. He’s bounced around the lineup and despite a lot of use on the top line that was mostly with the underwhelming O’Brien–McCormick combination. His PP numbers look unimpressive, although he’s actually produced as much on the second unit than anyone else (his percentage is still low at 3.0%); he’s 16.6% in his limited first unit time. He’s got deceptive speed, is good one-on-one, and has a great shot. I’m not clear on how good a passer he is, but it feels like there’s a lot more depth to explore (and he still hasn’t filled out his 6’5 frame).

Francis Perron (21, C/L) 44-4-11-15 PPP 3 0.34 61 shots
Lines
1 2-0-0-0 0.00
2 6-1-4-5 0.83
3 24-2-4-6 0.25
4 12-1-0-1 0.08
Special Teams
PP 4.8% (spent 31.7% on the first unit)
PK 87.6%

His season is currently derailed by injury, but prior to that the coaching staff was happily derailing it with usage. He barely played in the top-six 5-on-5, but that limited sample is encouraging. With lackluster linemates he struggled to produce, but he’s not that far off the numbers of other prospects when marooned in the bottom-six. His PP numbers aren’t great (1.7% on the second unit, 11.5% on the first), although they drift towards the average in limited first unit use. He struggled on the PK and while I think the org believes he’s another Pageau I’m not sure that’s the role that really suits him. I consider this a lost season and the next will really tell us who he is (assuming there’s a decent coach in charge).

Christian Jaros (21, RD) 33-2-10-12 PPP 5 0.36 65 shots
Pairings
Englund 27-0-6-6 0.22
Lajoie 4-0-1-1 0.25
Murray 1-0-0-0 0.00
Chabot 1-0-0-0 0.00
Special Teams
PP 6.8% (spent 35.2% on the first pairing)
PK 83.9%

Has missed a lot of time due to injury–that and the usual bizarre coaching decisions have played havoc with his season. One Kleinendorstian oddity is wrapping Englund around him like an anchor–the underwhelming Swede (see below) has caused the Slovak all kinds of trouble. He’s been reasonably effective on the second unit PP (4.5%), but was much better on the first (11.1%) in his limited time there. On the PK he’s struggled a great deal, but he was improving in January when taken away from Englund. When he came over from the SHL I was worried about his offensive chops, but at least at the AHL level he’s got what he needs (good speed, a great shot, and decent hands).

Maxime Lajoie (20, DL) 45-0-11-11 PPP 4 0.24 39 shots
Pairings
Murray 16-0-2-2 0.12
Englund 8-0-2-2 0.25
Burgdoerfer 6-0-2-2 0.33
Erkamps 6-0-0-0 0.00
Jaros 4-0-0-0 0.00
Pokka 2-0-1-1 0.50
Sieloff 1-0-0-0 0.00
Melancon 1-0-0-0 0.00
7th D 1-0-0-0 0.00
Special Teams
PP 3.9% (spent 8.6% on the first unit)
PK 96.0% (small sample size)

I was a bit puzzled at the alacrity with which the Sens signed him two years ago and while that excitement still seems out of proportion, I at least understand their interest now that I’ve seen him play. Much like Perron he’s been jerked around by the coaching staff all season and often paired with players who don’t suit him. Despite those problems his puckmoving ability has shone through. His PP time hasn’t been that productive (no points since December, with a second unit tally of 1.7% and a rarely used first at 18.1%). He and Jordan Murray have no chemistry whatsoever and the pair have spent much of the year as a duo on the second unit (I like him with Jaros, as I’ve mentioned in the past). The last two months he’s seen very limited duty on the PK and has done well, but it’s a limited sample size so it’s not something I’d trust yet.

Andreas Englund (22, DL) 64-1-9-10 0.15 49 shots
Pairings
Jaros 27-0-5-5 0.18
Burgdoerfer 13-0-2-2 0.15
Lajoie 8-1-0-1 0.12
Chabot 4-0-1-1 0.25
Sieloff 4-0-0-0 0.00
Erkamps 3-0-1-1 0.33
Murray 2-0-0-0 0.00
Pokka 1-0-0-0 0.00
Corrin 1-0-0-0 0.00
Special Teams
PK 86.3% 263-36

The Swedish pylon continues his underwhelming adventures in the AHL. While the team loves his size and physicality, he really does nothing else and shown no tangible improvement over last season. He can’t move the puck and while he doesn’t produce turnovers at the breakneck speed of Burgdoerfer he can’t really move the puck up the ice. He’s struggled on the PK, especially since January when Kleinendorst started playing his D-pairings for most of or the entire length of a penalty. The org would be better off trading him away, but it’s unlikely since Randy Lee loves his big bruisers.

Marcus Hogberg (23, GL) .892 3.51 4-10-0 (ECHL 7-7-1 2.96 .919)
Goal support: 2.28 (-0.15)
Average shots allowed: 32.4/60 min (-0.4)

He’s had a wildly inconsistent rookie season where he didn’t get his first AHL start until late December due to the four-goalie clusterfuck in Belleville (which is now five thanks to Filip Gustavsoon, granting that it appears neither Andrew Hammond nor Chris Driedger will ever play again). On the one hand I expected him to be better, but on the other I was expecting him to arrive in sane circumstances and be part of the regular rotation. Comparing apples to apples his numbers are better than Driedger‘s (.885; in the AHL at least) and not that far behind either Danny Taylor (.899) nor Hammond (.900), which indicates just how bad the blueline is. It’s his erratic performances that make me wonder how much is the goalie coach and the situation (his errors are technical, as in not being set properly and being small in the net–this was troubling Taylor as well during the first half of the season). He isn’t, in my opinion, as much of a dud as Matt O’Connor was when he arrived from the NCAA (now plying his trade in the ECHL, incidentally), but he could be like Driedger where flashes of brilliance are plagued by inconsistency. The Belleville situation is a mess and he’s still young enough as a goaltender that I wouldn’t panic about him yet.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 20, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

I Caught this on replay. Prior to the game the Sens signed Union College grad Ryan Scarfo (C/L) to an ATO; the center had a career year (38-20-16-36) as a senior, leading the team in scoring (tied in PPG’s with the undrafted Brett Supinksi, but very close to undrafted Cole Maier). The BSens have a lousy track record with ATOs (anyone remember Nick Craven?), so I don’t expect much, but they are really short at forward right now so could use the bodies.

Boxscore
Shots: 29-36
PP: 1-5
PK: 4-5
Scoring chances: 13
Key saves: 12
The Goals
1. Toronto – Hogberg throws the puck up the boards which is picked off and he can’t get set as the Marlie walks in all alone
2. Toronto PP – low wrister from the top of the circle
3. PP – Sexton scores through a crowd
4. Toronto – an unpressured Blunden throws the puck up the middle of the ice and the Marlies one-time it from the dot

Notable plays: Reinhart misses an empty net (first); Blunden runs a Marlie from behind (first); Blunden crashes awkwardly into the boards (second; stayed in the game); Werek takes a dumb penalty and Marlies keep possession for 1:20 afterwards (third); Reinhart makes an offside pass on a 3-on-2 (third).

It was a great game for Hogberg who stood on his head the first two periods when the BSens were outshot 32-18. Kleinendorst’s frustratingly stupid decisions continued–why continue to put Selleck on the PK? Why play Moutrey? Why not put Chlapik on the White-Sexton line when you need a goal? Why does Blunden continue to get an enormous amount of minutes? So many questions. Christian Jaros, who returned from injury after missing 20 games (the team was 4-14-2 without him), didn’t play much.

Streaks of note:
-Werek’s pointless streak hit 19 games
-Blunden’s goalless streak hit 20 games (still getting regular PP time, however)
-The second unit PP has now been without a goal in 19 games

A question: Kleinendorst has been using just two defensemen to kill penalties fairly frequently the last couple of months–I can’t think of any other pro team that does this, but if someone can correct me please do. On the face of it I can’t see how it helps.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 17, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The BSens wrapped up their last trip to Laval going 1-0-1, blowing a 3-1 lead in the first game and losing in overtime, while winning the second game after trailing 3-0. I believe the latter game is the first comeback with Hogberg in the net that we’ve seen, but it was a costly victory as both Nick Paul and Colin White left with injuries. Eric Selleck has played more minutes in his seven games in Belleville than his 30+ in the Ranger organization prior to the trade (at least it feels like it).

Boxscore
Shots: 31-30
PP: 1-4
PK: 4-6
Scoring chances: 11
Key saves: 3
The Goals
1. Gagne bangs in his own rebound
2. Laval – Taylor beat by a one-timer from the blueline
3. PP Sexton with a rocket top shelf
4. Rodewald after a great passing play via Sexton and Chlapik
5. Laval PP – Taylor beat by another slapper from the point
6. Laval – one-timer
7. Laval PP – Taylor beat short side

Notable plays: Chlapik unintentionally pushes a Laval player into the boards head first–Sexton scores while the ref is calling the penalty (second); bunch of fights after a big hit on Gagne which results in him fighting and subsequently being hurt (for the first time this season; third); Paul passes to no one on a 2-on-1 (OT)

Not a great game for Taylor, who in general has been playing more at his expected level, but hasn’t been able to completely get his game in shape.

Boxscore
Shots: 22-24
PP: 0-4
PK: 3-3
Key saves: 9
Scoring chances: 11
The Goals
1. Laval – rebound through a crowd
2. Laval – deke on an odd-man rush
3. Laval – great one-timer five-hole in the slot (White unable to tie up the stick or keep up)
4. Rodwald on a breakaway
5. Selleck cleans up Lajoie’s sneaky shot
6. Sexton bounces the puck off of Rodewald
7. Ciampini scores from the top of the circle
8. Reinhart hits the empty net after missing it moments before

Notable plays: Paul hurt on a hit (looked like his shoulder)–returned for a few shifts but was eventually out of the game (first); Randell takes a butt end to the face that isn’t called (first); White hurts his ankle or leg as he awkwardly falls–like Paul plays a few shifts before being taken out (first); Blunden can’t pull the trigger in the slot (second)

Some streaks of note:
-Hogberg broke a personal five-game losing streak
-Sieloff broke a 32-game pointless streak (!)
-Werek has gone 18 games without a point
-Blunden has gone 19 games without a goal
-Reinhart had his first goal in 13 games (albeit vs an empty net)
-Rodewald had his first multi-point game since November (40 games ago); it was also his first multi-goal game this season
-The second PP unit’s goalless streak has reached 18 games (the first unit has scored 11 goals over the same timeframe)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 13, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

I’m a bit late on my review this week, but all-in-all those of you who didn’t watch this trio of games didn’t miss much. The BSens scored first in all three of their three-in-three, but won only the first in what was a relatively dull set when it comes to entertainment value.

Belleville 1, Utica 0
Boxscore
Shots: 28-32
PP: 0-5
PK: 4-4
Scoring chances: 6
Key saves: 6
The Goal
1. Gagne scores short side on the rush

Notable plays: Reinhart misses the net from two feet out (second); great pass by Chlapik from behind the net to Moutrey who can’t handle it (second); White hits the crossbar (second); weird play off the opening faceoff on the powerplay at center ice–both Pokka and Chlapik (playing the points) raced forward when the puck was dropped (third); Moutrey hits Chlapik shooting from the slot (third); Chlapikd great cross-ice pass to Moutrey who missed the net (third); Sieloff misses the empty net (third)

Belleville 2, Bridgeport 4
Boxscore
PP: 1-6
PK: 1-3
Scoring chances: 6
Key saves: 6
The Goals
1. Sexton tips in Erkamps’ one-timer
2. PP Paul with a wrister from the slot
3. Bridgeport PP – score off a rebound
4. Bridgeport – point shot goes in high
5. PP Bridgeport – Selleck turns it over at the blueline and the point shot goes through five-hole
6. Bridgeport – Chlapik’s pass is deflected and they score on the empty-net

Notable plays: Blunden misses the net all alone in the slot (first); Chlapik great pass to Englund through traffic (first); Selleck accidentally takes out the ref (first); Colin White was injured (upper body) this game.

Belleville 1, Toronto 4
Boxscore
PP: 0-2
PK: 3-5
Scoring chances: 7
Key saves: 10
The Goals
1. Englund with a nice backhander all alone in front
2. Toronto PP – Sieloff gets puck watching and can’t block the pass in front
3. Toronto – deflection in front
4. Toronto PP – one-timer from the top of the circle
5. Toronto – Moutrey turns it over and the Marlie walks into the slot and scores

Notable plays: Gagne with a great effort to get a partial breakaway (first); Sieloff makes an ill-advised pinch leading to a 3-on-1 (first); Englund stupidly pushes a player into Taylor (first); Moutrey can’t get a shot all alone in front (first); reat pass by Chlapik to Rodewald for a scoring chance (first); Lajoie with a great pass to Moutrey (second)

Selleck played a ton of this game for some reason and the Marlies ate him for breakfast. Englund’s goal was his first of the season (in game #60!).

With the BSens playing no meaningful games at this point Kleinendorst continues to favour his veterans to no meaningful effect. Selleck, who isn’t really an AHL-player, has been on the first or second line in four of his five games; Blunden and Reinhart, who have both been awful all season long, are anchoring the second line; Moutrey, who doesn’t have offensive skills, has spent half his time on the first line. Chlapik, one of the most talented players on the roster, has been buried in the third line for the last six games and seen his point totals dry up accordingly.

The conservatism has seen the coach attempt to have just two defensemen play entire penalty kills (contributing to the recent 8-13 PK run) and the second unit powerplay has now gone 16 games without a goal (the one constant on it is Blunden).

Current Streaks of Note
Sieloff: no points in 31 games
Blunden: 17 game goalless streak
Werek: 16 game pointless streak
Murray: 9 game pointless streak
Reinhart: 8 game pointless streak
Gagne: 1 point in his last 9
Rodewald: 1 point in his last 8
Sexton: point-per-game pace his last fourteen

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 6, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment