The season may already be flushed, but we’ll hold out hope as Ian Mendes (understandably) throws in the towel. The picture above doesn’t illustrate my own glee, but rather encapsulates all the warning signs prior to this season. Let us dial back the clock to July, where I was unimpressed with Dorion’s free agent efforts (MacEwen, Hamonic, and Korpisalo), the Debrincat trade (Kubalik is on-pace for the worst season of his career), and the overall drafting record beyond some top picks. It’s no surprise that the results of the Dorion regime are terrible, but the simple solution (firing D. J. Smith) has been allowed to linger like a bad fart, just the same way Dorion was left hanging as a lame duck GM. The results aren’t entirely on Smith (he didn’t pick the roster), but that’s beside the point. Just like in Edmonton, firing the coach is the simplest way to try and change a team’s fate. I’m sure Andlauer wants to wait for the road trip to end and that the writing was already on the wall. I don’t think the Penguin (er, Jacques Martin) will step in to ride out the season (he’s 71 and hasn’t coached since 2011-12), but there’s no need to be concerned with who replaces Smith at this point other than he needs to go. [My guess here was wrong as Martin is taking over–clearly on an interim basis however.]
The fundamental flaws the Sens have are nothing surprising. Their goaltending isn’t good enough; their blueline isn’t good enough; and their depth isn’t good enough. While I’m unsure if Forsberg and Korpisalo can work as an NHL tandem (unlikely), their horrible numbers are at least in part because of what’s in front of them. The top-end of the lineup is fine. People complain about the stars (their defensive play in particular), but that’s not the problem. The bottom of the lineup stinks and is underperforming; because of the cap situation there’s no easy way out of it. The smart move, trading Mathieu Joseph while his value is high, hasn’t occurred yet (and his injury complicates matters). To my mind there are 12 players on the roster who have been fine (all the obvious people you’d think of). Then we get to the horror show: Forwards Kubalik – hasn’t found a home in the lineup and his confidence is shot Kelly – no complaints about the effort, but he can’t drive the play, making him too one-dimensional for the modern NHL Chartier – he’s not an NHL player; people praise the defensive attention, but like Kelly above, that’s not enough MacEwen – there’s been no need for one-dimensional fighters in the NHL for years (as I went over when he was signed) Kastelic – I’ve never been a fan and, as with Chartier and Kelly above, he just isn’t talented enough Defense JBD – people love his compete level, but I don’t see the talent to back it up (and playing over 16 minutes a night?) Brannstrom – why they didn’t move him in the offseason is a mystery (and over 16 minutes a night?) Hamonic – bringing him back was a bad idea, as his game has fallen apart making him look like the player Vancouver dumped on the Sens originally
The time when you could roll out a physical fourth-line and call it a day are long past, but Dorion always had that mindset (and you see it reflected by many people who cover the team or hockey in general). The bigger problem is the blueline, where the drop off between the top-four (or, given Chabot‘s endless injury situation, cf, top-three) is catastrophic.
There’s nothing in the minors to save the team. While prospects remain, most of those with talent can’t play a depth role and aren’t valued enough around the league to make a useful trade. The Sens are also in cap hell, requiring space to sign Pinto (whose price has, at least, dropped), but they desperately need to turnover their depth.
Can they turn it around? With 56-games left in the season (almost 70% of the season) it’s possible, but not without major changes beyond Smith. The problem for Staios is that to make big changes means moving a good player, but the Sens can’t afford to do that as it simply creates new problems. The perfect world is: fire Smith, trade Joseph (to make room for Pinto and for at least one other minor move), dump anyone from the fourth-line for picks or future considerations (Kelly, Chartier, MacEwen, and Kastelic combined: 75-2-5-7), trade either Brannstrom or JBD and then shore up the blueline with a competent #5 blueliner or prospect (Kleven is a work in progress, but at least there’s potential). How easy is this to do? It’s not, although I believe there’s a healthy market for Joseph (moving him would allow Kubalik to slide up the lineup and you might as well find out if he can return to form with top-six minutes), and at least one or two of the pieces above could find homes elsewhere in the NHL.
What I wouldn’t do is make a panicked trade of top players. Ottawa’s elite talent is too thin for a move. The only argument I’d entertained is trading Chabot due to his injury problems, but you can’t make that deal without getting something good in return and that’s unlikely (although Columbus is still in the league, so one never knows). My expectation at this point is Smith will be fired when the team returns to Ottawa, but no other moves will be made at that time (Staios waiting to see how the coaching change impacts results).
How time flies as the BSens are now at the 22-game mark (here are my comments on the first 10; the schedule made another 10-game segment awkward to do). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:
While the BSens winning percentage has barely moved, they’ve technically moved up the standings slightly (although their position via winning percentage is unchanged). The most recent segment: 5-4-3; going 4-2-0 in the division; PP 14.6% (-2.4%); PK 78.7% (-1.8%); GF 39 (+12); GA 42 (+12)–because this covers two extra games we’d expect more goals for/against, but in terms of per-game the team has gone from 2.7 to 3.25 and 3.0 to 3.5 (so both have increased unrelated to the extra games).
Game by Game 2-1 Cleveland (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 4-6 Laval (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango; in Ottawa: Sogaard, Larsson) 2-3 Manitoba (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 1-8 Lehigh (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 3-4 (OT) Hartford (Kleven, Larsson returned; Supryka released from PTO; PTO Orrin Centazzo; injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 2-4 Bridgeport (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 6-3 Utica (Jarventie, Sogaard returned; Merilainen to ECHL; injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 2-3 Rochester (no changes) 4-2 Rochester (no changes) 5-2 Laval (Highmore, Reinhardt, Fizer back; Sogaard injured; Centazzo released; Sebrango loaned to ECHL) 5-2 Grand Rapids (Smejkal to Ottawa; Merilainen recalled) 3-4 (OT) Grand Rapids (Sogaard back from injury)
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.
The biggest surprise are Sokolov‘s struggles. I think he’ll snap out of it as he’s well below his career average (0.79 coming into the season, he’s at just 0.54 right now). The other notable is veteran signee Currie, whose struggles are to the point where I have to assume the team wants to move him (there were signs of a decline when he was in KHL). On the positive side, Crookshank is starting to look like the form he had when he broke into the league and M. Boucher is enjoying the most success he’s had at this level as a pro (although that’s probably not sustainable). One trivial note I want to make is that Betts has tripled his prior production last season with the BSens (however anemic that still remains).
Defense Guenette 12-2-7-9 (22-3-14-17) Thomson 12-2-3-5 (22-3-5-8) *Matinpalo 12-1-2-3 (17-2-2-4) NHL 4-0-0-0 TOI 7:00 @Heatherington 12-1-2-3 (21-2-2-4) *Kleven 6-1-1-2 (10-1-3-4) NHL 5-0-1-1 11:01 @Larsson 9-0-2-2 (18-2-2-4) #MacKinnon 9-0-2-2 (15-0-3-3) JBD 2-0-0-0NHL 18-1-3-4 TOI 16:50 %Supryka 3-0-0-0 (7-0-0-0) [no longer on the roster] Sebrango [ECHL 4-1-1-2]
Guenette has managed to maintain his hot pace and is the primary offensive driver from the blueline. Thomson is gradually moving back to his usual pace production (0.30->0.41, with 0.59 being the norm), but other than perhaps Kleven the team (as predicted) struggles to generate offense from the back end. It also looks like it will be safe to remove JBD from this list next time as he seems locked in Ottawa.
I mentioned prior to the season that Mandolese is consistently inconsistent and this persists. Merilainen experienced his first bumps as an AHL-pro, but that shouldn’t cause concern and in the ECHL he’s been by far the best goaltender. Sogaard has remained excellent and seems to be back on form after an inconsistent 2022-23.
The BSens are still figuring out their powerplay as only Guenette and Sokolov are producing consistently. Special teams in general have been poor and I feel like are among the indicators of coaching impact, but there’s still time for things to solidify and improve.
We’re 10-games into the BSens-season, so it’s a good time to take a snapshot and see how they are performing. It’s worth keeping in mind that this season the BSens added no high end prospects other than Merilainen in net, so we have a few ‘maybes’ (Daoust, Ostapchuk and T. Boucher) along with free agent shots in the dark (Smejkal and Matinpalo). T. Boucher, just like in his amateur seasons, is hurt, so can’t be assessed as a pro yet, while the others have all shown flashes to varying degrees.
There are no streaks (good or bad) as the team is basically treading water behind excellent goaltending. Compared to their conference there are plenty of concerns (special teams and scoring), but they are simply mediocre in their division thus far.
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player
Forwards @Highmore 9-2-5-7 (currently in the NHL) Crookshank 10-2-4-6 (includes empty net goal) Sokolov 10-2-4-6 (leads the team in shots) @Pilon 8-3-2-5 (games missed due to the team being over the veteran limit) Reinhardt 10-2-3-5 *Ostapchuk 10-2-2-4 (has the team’s only shorthanded goal) Jarventie 6-1-2-3 (currently in the NHL; includes empty net assist) @Currie 7-1-2-3 (games missed due to the team being over the veteran limit) *Smejkal 7-1-2-3 (games missed due to injury) @MacEwen 4-2-0-2 (back in the NHL) #Saulnier 9-1-1-2 (game missed due to injury) *Daoust 4-0-2-2 (initially assigned to the ECHL; now injured) [ECHL 5-3-2-5] #McPhee 7-1-0-1 (scratched three times) @Imama 7-0-1-1 (games missed due to the team being over the veteran limit) *#Fizer 8-0-0-0 (games missed due to injury) %M. Boucher 2-0-0-0 [ECHL Trois-Rivieres 8-7-5-12] %Lukosevicius 1-0-0-0 [ECHL South Carolina 8-5-3-8] %Betts 1-0-0-0 [ECHL Utah 5-1-4-5] *T. Boucher (injured)
Of the players under their usual numbers, I don’t make much of it yet–one or two good games would fix it. If there’s a general issue it’s that no one is breaking out–the BSens have struggled to score (an expected issue coming into the season).
Defense Guenette 10-1-7-8 Thomson 10-1-2-3 @Larsson 9-2-0-2 (game missed due to veteran limit) Kleven 4-0-2-2 (currently in the NHL) *Matinpalo 5-1-0-1 (games missed due to being in the NHL) @Heatherington 9-1-0-1 (game missed due to illness) #MacKinnon 6-0-1-1 (scratched four times) %Supryka 4-0-0-0 [ECHL Fort Wayne 3-0-1-1] Bernard-Docker 2-0-0-0 (currently in the NHL) Sebrango (injured*) [ECHL 1-1-0-1] *[Sebrango’s case is a little strange–he was assigned to Allen Oct.22, but is listed as injured by Belleville; I’m unclear if he was assigned after injury recovery and got injured again or was scratched, re-assigned, and then injured]
This has been a great start for Guenette and it will be interesting to see if he can sustain it. As with the forwards above, it’s too early to be concerned with those below par, particularly as the team in general struggles with offense. On the whole I think coach Bell has done well with his ever changing blueline, particularly with so many top players recalled. That said, it remains a work in progress.
Sogaard has been excellent and unfortunately Mandolese‘s erratic play is unchanged from every other season–you simply never know what you’ll get with him and that’s put Merilainen solidly ahead. I do think the team has relied a bit too much on Sogaard and needs to rotate more.
Outside the first three players no one else has established themselves with the man advantage–something that’s heavily contributed to the BSens scoring woes.
I’ve included this just for trivia–it’s not relevant to performance.
The addition of ECHL blueliner Cameron Supryka (DL, 59-5-19-24) is the only added PTO who had not played with Belleville last year. The team brought backMatthew Boucher (passim), Jarid Lukosevicius, and Kyle Betts (cf). Clearly the BSens have a preference for known quantities. I don’t think much of Betts, but as he’s intended to play fourth-line minutes that’s not a big deal. Both M. Boucher and Lukosevicius can score (to some degree) at this level, which is something the BSens need throughout their roster.
On the whole the team has defensive issues that goaltending is patching over and has yet to find its momentum offensively. Whether either can be truly cured without more players being returned from Ottawa remains to be seen. As it stands, I think the immediate results are fine, but I don’t think they are sustainable without progress/changes.
For the first time since he was hired back in 2007, Pierre Dorion finally faced consequences for his actions, losing a first-round pick for botching the Dadonov trade and as a result being fired. Dorion had lost or wasted four-straight first-round picks (2021-23, plus one in 24-26), with at least three in the top-ten. That’s a terrible cost without meaningful benefit. I’m glad ownership pulled the trigger–he could only inflict more damage the longer he was retained (cf, but as we’ll go over). I’ve wanted him gone for a long, long time, well before he became the GM. This move doesn’t guarantee Ottawa will get a good GM (as expected, Steve Staios will serve as the interim manager), but I’d like to think the number of embarrassing mistakes is reduced and the team becomes more professional (cf).
One thing this debacle hints at is that the speculation that the Mann brothers (Trent and Troy) were fired for optics (cf, that is, to avoid the new owner getting honest feedback about him), could very well be true. In my opinion there were practical reasons to let both go (more Trent than Troy), but it’s possible it was purely in order for Pierre to present himself in the best light possible.
There are a lot of ways to assess Dorion, but let’s start with his background. His father had a stellar career as a scout (perhaps why Pierre has a fetish for ‘son-of’ draft/signing/hiring) and he began his career as an amateur scout in Montreal (94-95 to 04-05, under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather). The Sens signed him to be their Director of Amateur Scouting (07-08 to 08-09), then Director of Player Personal (09-10 to 13-14), Assistant GM (mid-season 13-14 to 15-16), to GM (16-17), all under Bryan Murray.
We’ll start with team performance as GM. Dorion played a major hand in the drafting prior to becoming the GM, so in many ways the initial roster is ‘his’ roster, even though Murray built that team, but we’ll get to that later.
NHL 2016-17 44-28-10 12th Boucher Lost Conference Finals 2017-18 28-43-11 30th Boucher 2018-19 29-47-6 31st Boucher/Crawford 2019-20 25-34-12 30th Smith 2020-21 23-28-5 23rd Smith 2021-22 33-42-7 25th Smith 2022-23 39-35-8 21st Smith AHL (Because some Western teams play 68-games, I’m positioning them just vs the East) 2016-17 28-44-4 13th Kleinendorst (final season in Binghamton) 2017-18 29-42-5 14th Kleinendorst 2018-19 37-31-8 t-10th Mann 2019-20 38-20-5 t-2nd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2020-21 18-16-1 3rd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2021-22 40-28-4 6th Mann Lost 1st Round 2022-23 31-31-6 14th Mann/Bell
In Dorion’s tenure the team had a miracle playoff run to start and then went into a painful rebuild it hasn’t fully pulled out of. On the AHL-side, Dorion had helped denude the prospect pool he inherited and was unable to achieve AHL-success since (in part due to Covid in part, but it’s very early for a rebuilding team to be running out of high end prospects).
Dorion deserves a lot of criticism for his trades (his comment was always don’t judge me now; I did then and we can now–you can find a complete list here). There are a lot of deals so we’ll focus on the ones I consider key/indicative. I will put them in red if it’s a fail, green if it’s a win, and orange if it’s yet to be determined.
Trades 2016-17 1st & 3rd for 1st – the Logan Brown trade; the Sens gave up what would be Michael McLeod and Brandon Gignac to move from 12 to 11 at the draft. Brown (son-of) isn’t currently playing, having dressed for only 99 NHL games (99-7-19-26) in his career. McLeod remains a useful Devil (250-20-48-68), still under contract with the team, while Gignac is a productive AHL-player. Zibanejad for Brassard – top center for a fading veteran, I knew this was a bad move when it was made and we don’t need to dive into the numbers as Z-bad is still an incredibly productive player for the Rangers and Brassard (after his second tour in Ottawa) is retired; there were two picks thrown into the deal, with Ottawa’s (Luke Loheit) a bust and the Rangers (Jonatan Berggren) a useful part of Detroit’s prospect pool Lazar for Jokipakka – trading Lazar is an automatic win, but putting aside bust Jokipakka, the Sens got a 2nd they used to pick Alex Formenton–his personal problems aside, as a player that’s a huge win in return for an unremarkable fourth-liner like Lazar 2017-18 Duchene for Turris and picks – the team was able to move Hammond and failed 1st-rounder Shane Bowers (still bouncing around the AHL), but gave up the 4th overall pick (Bowen Byram) and a 3rd (Matthew Stienberg; currently struggling in the AHL) without achieving anything Brassard for Ian Cole and Filip Gustavsson – this is a weird one as it’s mostly swapping around irrelevant spare parts between three teams (Pittsburgh/Vegas; Gustavsson is his own thing below), except that the 1st-round pick Ottawa landed was later wasted (as we’ll get to) and there’s an Ottawa piece that’s still undetermined in goaltender Justus Annunen (in Colorado) Ian Cole for prospect/pick – I don’t think much of Cole as a player, but he’s still getting regular minutes in the NHL (currently for Vancouver) and the Sens have nothing to show for it; the prospect (Nick Moutrey) is now playing tier-3 in Europe, while the pick (Alex Laferriere) is on LA’s roster Hoffman for Boedker – another train wreck where the Sens gave up a useful player and have almost nothing left in return (certainly not the same value); Boedker was a bust, as was prospect Julius Bergman; the pick (Philippe Daoust) remains, but his future is uncertain; besides Hoffman the Sens also gave up a pick and that pick (Tyler Tullio) is a viable prospect (now in Edmonton) 1st for a 1st and 2nd – the K’Andre Miller trade, from which the Sens only have JBD remaining (the 2nd, Tychonick, is on an AHL-deal with Toronto) 2018-19 Karlsson for Norris etc – this is the deal that saved Dorion’s career; while the established players he got failed to deliver or remain (Tierney, DeMelo now in Winnipeg, and Balcers now in Europe), but it landed Norris, the pick for Stutzle, Ostapchuk (ceiling TBD), and a pick later traded (Jamieson Rees, on the last year of his ELC with Carolina–see below) Anders Nilsson for Mike McKenna – this only appears because of the pick the Sens threw in that became goaltending prospect Arturs Silovs (in the Vancouver system) Duchene for Abramov etc – Columbus didn’t retain Duchene and the established prospects failed out for Ottawa, so this should be a wash, except that the pick that became Lassi Thomson is part of the deal and that could turn the tide in Ottawa’s favour Dzingel for Duclair – this should be a win for Ottawa, given the way each player’s career went, but the Sens gave up both picks acquired in the deal (two 2nd’s), both of whom are legit prospects (we’ll get to those deals later) Stone for Brannstrom etc – while the Sens retain both Brannstrom and the pick (Sokolov) from this deal, neither of them are worth Stone and there’s no guarantee either are in the league a few years from now 2nd & 3rd for 2nd – this is the Rees trade mentioned above, where the Sens swapped that pick for Mads Sogaard, so it remains to be seen how this turns out Brown, Zaitsev for Ceci, Harper – trading Ceci should always be a win, but not when you get Zaitsev back; this is also the trade that moved the Laferriere pick (now in LA) 2019-20 Veronneau for Luchuk – the only reason this irrelevant trade appears is that Dorion landed a pick (Vyacheslav Peksa) he later traded away and that goaltender could turn out Pageau for 1st – that first turned into Ridley Greig (the Sens gave away the 2nd from this trade) and it remains to be seen how the former’s career goes (unlikely to match Pageau‘s, but possible) J. Brown for 4th – the 4th didn’t turn out, so why is this here? Because no one in their right mind trades for the signing rights for Josh Brown (an irrelevant player now a spare part in Arizona) 2020-21 Matt Murray for prospect/pick – the ‘tender was (and is) a disaster and while the prospect hasn’t panned out (Gruden) the pick (Joel Blomqvist) could; the deal where Murray was dumped isn’t inherently awful, but the Sens are still paying for him via retained salary (this is the last year of that) 2nd for 2nd & 3rd – the Kleven trade; the Leafs picked up two viable prospects in the deal (Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela), so we’ll have to see who ultimately pans out Carcone for Magwood – the former has found an NHL career in Arizona while the latter is a bit part in tier-2 Europe 2nd for Stepan – I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want Stepan at that phase of his career; the Sens gave up the pick that became Josh Doan (now in Arizona) 2nd for 2nd/5th – while undetermined, the Sens gave up on Ben Roger (having flipped the other pick) while Francesco Pinelli got an ELC from LA Dadonov for Holden/pick – on a hockey level this is initially a win, but Holden is gone, the pick moved (Elias Pettersson in Vancouver), and Dorion lied to Vegas and got himself fired 2021-22 Gambrell trade – this is a loss not because of the pick exchanged (who didn’t turn out), but because they played Gambrell in the NHL–why? Paul for Joseph – there’s always a chance the Sens hit a homerun with the 4th-rounder in 2024, but I doubt it 2022-23 Debricat for picks – I thought this was bad from the start and that’s not in dispute anymore–besides losing the 7th overall in Kevin Korchinski, there’s Paul Ludwinski and a 3rd-rounder this year with the Sens having nothing to show for it Talbot for Gustavsson – even if Gus implodes with Minnesota this year, his season-to-season comparison with Talbot isn’t close Zaitsev for picks – we don’t know if Roman Kantserov or the 4th in 2026 will turn out, but this is still a self-inflicted loss of assets Chychrun for picks – while the Sens gave up Daniil But (12th overall) along with the 2nd they got for Connor Brown and a 2nd in 2026, ifChychrun performs well, stays healthy, and can be retained, it’s worthwhile Patrick Brown for a pick – why trade for him? I don’t know if Ryan MacPherson will turn out, but what was the point of acquiring Brown for less than 20-games of a lost season? Debrincat for Kubalik and picks – might as well lose on both trades involving the player; the Sens have to hope they hit a homerun with the 1st or 4th-rounder
Let’s take a tally from the above: 2-18-12. That’s awful (10% on those determined). Dorion lost most of his deals and this is echoed by his free agent signings (below). First let’s go over his draft record. One thing the media in Ottawa has always koomed over was his ability to spot talent. Let’s look shall we? How good was he (something I actually went over recently, but there are changes below)?
Dorion’s Success Rate at the Draft (2008-23) We have to keep in mind he didn’t have full control of who was picked until 2014 (those totally due to Dorion below are in green); also keep in mind that final judgement can’t be assessed for all (noted by the third number in the assessment below). In terms of generic draft realities, there’s a difference between early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf). I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts (22-23), as it’s far too early to judge–on average at least one pick from each should turn out, but teams do completely miss. The percentage excludes the unknowns ( I’ve also highlighted a couple of ‘successes’ that I have questions about), with ‘success’ being 400 NHL games (or projected to do so), which is about five full seasons–a genuine NHL-caliber player: 1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Mika Zibanejad, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson; Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher) 1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Erik Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot; Matt Puempel, Colin White, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig) 2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Jakob Silfverberg, Shane Pinto; Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie) 2nd (eleven+): 1-4-4 20% (Robin Lehner; Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik, Jonny Tychonick; Alex Formenton, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov) 3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Zack Smith; Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen) 4th: 3-12-0 20% (Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Drake Batherson; Andre Petersson, Chris Wideman, Marcus Sorensen, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Ben Harpur, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin) 5th: 2-7-2 22% (Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman; Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic) 6th: 1-9-2 10% (Mark Stone; Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt) 7th: 1-10-2 9% (Ryan Dzingel; Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)
I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played he fits the criteria of success; I also think Curtis Lazar is a marginal NHL-player who hurts the teams he plays for (passim), but again, 400+ games, so I have to bow to the numbers. These are two players who fail the eye and stat test, but have GMs who believe in them.
Through the 14 drafts considered the Sens have 20 successes (or 1.42 per draft), which would be in the top-half of the league. That said, many of the names above were not when Pierre was holding the trigger. From 2014 and on, when he had the final say, he’s 6 for 8 (since we’re not counting 22-23). There are plenty of prospects who could still turn out and he’d just need 3 to get himself up to the top half of the league, but what’s more concerning to me is how few outside the Goldilocks zone (1st-2nd rounds) have panned out–thus far, just Batherson. To create depth, teams need to find players in later rounds–there simply aren’t enough early picks to carry you through (ask Edmonton). There could be an argument made that Trent Mann has truly run the boards since 2017, but in that case Dorion’s record is abysmal–from 2014-16 his only success is Chabot (1 for 3). That’s Darryl Sutter/Peter Chiarelli levels of failure (cf).
What can we take from his draft success? I’ll be fair to Dorion in saying he’s at least average at the draft. In time we might say slightly above or below, but what he isn’t is the savant we’ve been hearing about for almost two decades. The Sens cupboard was bare prior to the rebuild and it’s close to that now that the team is in its window (early returns for the 21-23 drafts look like a wash, with a ‘maybe’ for each of the first two). Too easily Dorion threw away draft capital to make a splash and that’s never worked out for him (as seen above). The overriding problem with the Sens right now is depth, something the draft is meant to solve.
FA Signings (Not comprehensive) Tarasenko (2023; 1yr, 5.0) – assessment ongoing, good early returns, but the signing helped create Cap Hell Korpisalo (2023; 5yrs, 4.0) – the term and cost are difficult to understand MacEwen (2023; 3yrs, 0.775) – why, and why the term? He’s in the AHL now Giroux (2022; 3yrs, 6.5) – has turned out very well Del Zotto (2021; 2yrs, 2.0) – forced to buy him out (still on the books this season) Dadonov (2020; 3yrs, 5.0) – arrived out of shape & disinterested; also the boondoggle leading to Dorion’s firing Nilsson (2019; 2yrs, 2.6) – played reasonably well in his 44 appearances; now retired Thompson (2017; 2yrs, 1.65) – signed after an awful season but an okay playoff; the Sens were forced to jettison him in his first season (by acquiring a bad contract from LA, Gaborik) Condon (2017; 3yrs, 2.4) – yet another Pittsburgh ‘tender Dorion fell in love with (why three years on such a small sample size?); offloaded him by acquiring a bad contract from Tampa (Callahan)
Re-signed (Not comprehensive) Zub (2022; 4yrs, 4.6) – was the cost of bringing him back too high? It remains to be seen and we have to wonder how many of his ‘upper body’ injuries in the past were also concussions Forsberg (2022; 3yrs, 2.75) – again, why the term? An off-year last year, but he could put it back together this season White (2019; 6yrs, 4.75) – a middling, fragile player, I have no idea what Dorion was smoking; he’s in the AHL now, but the Sens are going to be paying him until 2027-28 Smith (2017; 3yrs, 3.25) – everyone loves him, but his career was already in decline, the team was collapsing, and that’s a high number for a third-line player–traded in the final year of his deal to Chicago (for a bad contract, Anisimov)
I’m not going to try to explain the org’s love affair with Tom Pyatt, as his three pointless years were cheap and there are bigger problems. Dorion does not get the blame for Bobby Ryan‘s buyout–maybe he could have moved him instead (doubtful at that price), but the contract was Bryan Murray’s (even if he likely approved of it). This is the last year where Ryan gets paid.
Cap Hell
The Sens have no reason to be slammed against the Cap, but they are, so let’s look at why:
If you look at that and wonder how the Sens are up against it when they’ve (technically) cut almost three million from their salaries, it’s because Norris is not on LTIR and Stutzle‘s contract (8.35) has kicked in. The Sens also still have almost 3.5 million in dead money owed to buyouts or retention (this would be more than enough to re-sign Pinto if it was off the books). The Sens have to move someone to bring Pinto in, barring a long term injury.
There are a lot of ‘why’s’ with Dorion’s moves above. If you don’t believe in Forsberg, why not move him along with signing Korpisalo? If you aren’t sure about Korpisalo, why the term/money? I am less bothered by the Tarasenko signing since it’s just a one-year commitment and he’s making less than Debrincat (who ostensibly he’s replacing). It’s in net where the cap problems are manifest, with two unproven ‘tenders who have multiple years left on (reasonably) hefty salaries. This entire mess means it’s almost certain that the overpaid Joseph gets moved (there’s no other contract that really works), barring a season-ending injury for someone.
The final thought is how bush league in appears to be that the NHL did not inform the prospective new owner about either the Pinto situation (suspended for sports gambling) or Dadonov‘s. It seems like they withheld the information to keep the price of the club as high as possible and I suspect, when the dust clears, the Sens might get a reprieve on their penalty similar to what happened to New Jersey in respect to the Kovalchuk debacle long ago (time will tell, but there’s no excuse for the NHL to not tell Andlauer, just as there was no excuse for Dorion to not tell Vegas about Dadonov–and I’m not the only person with this belief). All that aside, I’m glad Dorion’s gone and I hope Staios et al can help the team going forward.
The attempt to cap clean to sign Shane Pinto seems to have boiled down to just Mathieu Joseph (according to Bruce Garrioch), as there’s limited interest in Brannstrom (something not helped by Columbus desperately trying to move a defenseman). If that’s true, his play early on this season helps making that move easier (even if the rest of the NHL know they have Dorion over a barrel–only eight teams can currently afford to take him). This entire mess, including Joseph‘s contract, is of Dorion’s own making, so they are once again paying for his inability to properly assess talent.
As for the team itself, it’s an unremarkable 3-3-0. It’s too early to say much of anything other than the early returns on Tarasenko have been good (leads the team in points), Kubalik has been awful (no points), and without their top-four the Sens struggle (both games without Zub have been disasters–giving up 11 goals–collectively Brannstrom, Hamonic, and JBD can’t fill the void). The only surprise for me is Kubalik, but it’s too soon to be worried. November has been the breaking point for D. J. Smith’s seasons, so we have to wait and see.
Waiving MacEwen, whose three-year deal makes him immune to being claimed, only clears out 775k for the Sens in their effort to sign Pinto (he and JBD just aren’t enough combined: 1.58). MacEwen, who scored twice in his debut for the BSens, means Imama sits (since they have the same role but MacEwen is both a better fighter and player). The veteran clog in Belleville remains a problem Dorion created for himself and barring an early, major injury, the team will have to make a deal to get out of it. For now the team has rotated the scratches between Imama, Pilon, and Currie, but that’s not tenable for the whole season.
I’ve watched parts of the BSens last two games (their 5-2 loss to Lehigh Valley and their 5-4 win over Laval), but the entirety of their first game (3-0 over Hershey). I made a few notes/observations and we’ll start broadly: the team had terrible breakouts and structure and were getting killed on faceoffs; the second PP unit looked better than the first (which struggled badly). The team played with seven defensemen and initially JBD got the nod over Thomson, but it was a rough night for JBD so that switched after a bad penalty. Sogaard was excellent. Other specifics: -Ostapchuk got run over by McIlrath -Fizer was stopped on a breakaway (he has great speed) -Reinhardt scored a very nice goal -Guenette struggled being the top D on the pp -Matinpalo had a nice one-timer via Thomson -Great pass by Jarventie to Matinpalo (although he didn’t score) -Pilon breakaway via a Guenette pass (he was stopped) -Sokolov hit a post
The first line of Smejkal–Highmore–Sokolov has not worked (no apparent chemistry), so I expect it to change. I feel like coach Bell has a good sense of the bottom of his roster, but doesn’t know what to do with the top. It’s incredibly early in the season so too soon to judge player or coach performance and I expect juggling to continue for awhile.
Let’s start off with the latest news before we dig into it: Matthew Boucher has returned to the BSens on a PTO. Boucher, who joined the team last year on a PTO (cf), already has an ECHL contract with Trois-Rivieres (Montreal’s affiliate). Last season he was a useful if unspectacular player, but I have no idea where he fits in the team’s crowded lineup (as a PTO, there’s no real commitment to him). In addition to his signing, we have further roster updates, with Toure thankfully loaned back to the OHL (now the third signed blueliner playing in junior, along with Hamara and Donovan) and Merilainen joining Sinclair in the ECHL (with the Allen Americans, who are based in Texas).
The Roster
I’ll go through each player in detail below, but we’ll start with the basics. Because position listings aren’t always accurate, I’ve indicated right/lefthanded and noted centers via the BSens site; I’ve also kept both reassigned goalies on the list just for clarity of depth; veteran contracts are in bold, while AHL/PTO contracts are in italics:
Keep in mind that expected AHLer Chartier (CL) remains in Ottawa and would add another forward to the tally, but with four players on AHL-deals/PTO, the crowding is something of an illusion. The blueline is genuinely congested; despite the numbers, the team has only two (or three, depending on how Kleven pans out) who move the puck. That aside, who are you sitting? It feels like Sebrango is being buried (which was his status in Detroit), but I’m not sure how Matinpalo gets ice time with JBD in Belleville. I assume the Sens will want to move at least one of these players (JBD, waived around the league, is hard to move) to free up roster space.
While I don’t think it’s indicative yet, the scratches for the BSens’ first game: Currie, T. Boucher, Daoust, McPhee, Sebrango, and MacKinnon, with Mandolese backing up [Boucher is injured]. On paper that leaves them 12 forwards and 7 defensemen, so there’s something I’m missing.
Coaching/Management
The major change for the BSens happened in the middle of last season when Troy Mann was fired. His then assistant, former Ottawa 67 David Bell, took over, and was retained after his 14-8-6 record. Bell’s previous head coaching job was in 2016-17 in the OHL, which was only his second, and he’s never lasted more than one season (his coaching career beginning in 04-05, right after he retired). Maybe the 46-year old has been the victim of unfortunate circumstances, maybe not (he’s been on Belleville’s staff since 2019-20). The team’s GM, Ryan Bowness, joined the org last year and was very good at repairing the damage Pierre Dorion inflicted in the off-season. Let’s just briefly lay out his recent career: 2016-17 OHL Niagara 23-35-6 head coach 2017-19 AHL Ontario Reign assistant coach (Mike Stothers) 2019-24 AHL Belleville assistant coach (Troy Mann) 2024 AHL Belleville 14-8-6 head coach Like so many ex-player coaches, Bell was a fighter during his career, although it’s clear that background says nothing about the kind of coach he is. Besides the head coach, assistant coach Sexton is gone and Dennis (head coach in Kitchener last year) and McIver (an assistant in the ECHL last year) joined; one of the three development coaches (Brownrigg) is gone, while ex-Sens Donovan and Winchester remain.
The Players
Rookies are in green, veterans are in red, AHL or PTO players are in italics. I’ve included selective NHL experience (where I think it’s relevant for either context or call-ups) and AHL careers (for context):
Forwards Matthew Highmore LW, DOB 96 (age 27), undrafted QMJHL, signed FA 21-22 NHL 46-5-7-12 0.26 22-23 SPR 68-19-42-61 0.89 AHL career: 165-50-75-125 0.76 NHL experience (Chi/Van):139-12-15-27 0.19 His time as a peripheral NHLer seems to be over and he’ll be looking to repeat as an impactful AHL producer. Egor Sokolov LW, DOB 00 (age 23), 6’3, 2-61/20 21-22 BEL 64-19-31-50 0.78 22-23 BEL 70-21-38-59 0.84 There’s not much more for him to prove at this level so we should expect him to dominate. For the Sens this is either the year where moving him to the big club next year is inevitable or you move him. Roby Jarventie LW, DOB 02 (age 21), 6’2, 2-33/20 21-22 BEL 70-11-22-33 0.47 22-23 BEL 40-16-14-30 0.75 This is his first AHL season where he’s not the youngest player on the team; he should get ample opportunity and I expect him to score at a high level. Rourke Chartier CL, DOB 96 (age 27), 5-149/14 SJ, signed FA 21-22 BEL 33-10-15-25 0.75 22-23 BEL 40-20-8-28 0.70 AHL career: 222-62-73-135 0.61 A productive player when healthy (which isn’t often); I expect him to be sent down as soon as the Pinto situation is resolved. Angus Crookshank LW, DOB 99 (age 24), 5-126/18 21-22 BEL injured 22-23 BEL 71-26-21-47 0.66 Look for a step forward in production; if he can’t do that, it’s going to be hard for him to push his way into the NHL (it’s not that he’s expected to be a top-six player, but as a pest he needs to be an offensive threat given his size). Garrett Pilon CR, DOB 98 (age 25), 3-87/16 Wsh, signed FA 21-22 HER 60-17-25-42 0.70 22-23 HER 53-11-18-29 0.54 AHL career: 259-60-96-156 0.60 Took a step back last season and will be looking to recover; a puzzling signing, although he does fit Dorion’s ‘son-of’ fetish. Cole Reinhardt LW, DOB 00 (age 23), 6’0, 6-181/20 21-22 BEL 70-15-15-30 0.43 22-23 BEL 66-11-23-34 0.52 Has settled into his role as an energy player, but I’m not sure there’s enough talent to be more than that at this level. Brennan Saulnier CL, DOB 93 (age 30), undrafted NCAA, signed FA 21-22 LVP 43-3-3-6 0.14 22-23 BEL 30-6-9-15 0.50 Served as a useful spare part for part of last season, so he’ll look to continue that here (don’t get exited about his production last season, as that was a product of the injury plague the organization went through). Matthew Boucher LW, DOB 97 (age 26), undrafted QMJHL, PTO 21-22 ECHL 21-13-10-23 1.09 22-23 BEL 50-6-10-16 0.32 Consistently inconsistent last year, which is why he wasn’t originally retained; if he stays he’ll need to even out his performance. Bokondji Imama LW, DOB 96 (age 27), 6-180/15 TB, signed FA 21-22 TUC 54-5-7-12 0.22 22-23 TUC 50-5-10-15 0.30 AHL career: 257-26-36-62 0.24 Signed to fight, so that’s what he needs to do. Philippe Daoust CL, DOB 01 (age 22), 6-158/20 21-22 QMJHL 38-24-23-47 1.23 22-23 BEL 9-2-5-7 0.77 We still don’t know what he is at this level, having missed most of last season due to injury. Josh Currie RW, DOB 92 (age 31), undrafted QMJHL, signed FA 21-22 KHL 48-10-16-26 0.54 22-23 KHL 48-3-9-12 0.25 AHL career: 321-113-98-211 0.66 Seems to be on the downside of his career, which made the signing an odd one (feels a bit like the Jayce Hawryluk signing last year); I’m curious if he’s dinged up or being scratched his first game. Graham McPhee LW, DOB 98 (age 25), 5-149/16 Edm, acquired via trade 21-22 BAK 33-5-6-11 0.33 22-23 BAK/BEL 41-1-5-6 0.14 Must be good in the room, because there’s no evidence he’s good on the ice. Jiri Smejkal LW, DOB 96 (age 27), undrafted WHL, signed FA 21-22 Liiga 44-25-20-45 1.02 22-23 SHL 49-23-20-43 0.88 I’m interested to see how he’s used and how he performs at this level, as he hasn’t played hockey in North America in seven years. There’s a lot to like about his potential, but at his age he has to prove himself now. Tarun Fizer CR, DOB 01 (age 22), undrafted WHL, signed FA 21-22 WHL 35-17-34-51 1.45 22-23 ECHL 62-27-23-50 0.80 I don’t know if he can play a depth role, but that’s what’s available for him here. Zack Ostapchuk CL, DOB 03 (age 21), 2-39/21 21-22 WHL 60-26-17-43 0.71 22-23 WHL 55-31-36-67 1.22 I’m expecting some growing pains and a depth role to start, but he’s the kind of player who should be able to handle a third-line role. Tyler Boucher RW, DOB 03 (age 20), 1-10/21 21-22 OHL 24-7-7-14 0.58 22-23 OHL 21-10-7-17 0.81 Can he play at this level, and if so, how effectively?
It’s a weird forward group whose arrangement is not clear to me. Excluding the AHL/PTO players (who would all play at the bottom of the lineup), let’s try to break it down from top-six to bottom six: Top-six: Smejkal, Jarventie, Sokolov, Highmore, Crookshank, Currie, Chartier (still in Ottawa) Bottom-six: Imama, T. Boucher, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt, Daoust, Pilon On paper there’s plenty of talent as the roster, buoyed by an excellent 2020 draft (2021 has arrived, but there’s not much there; 2022 and 2023 may be even worse). I feel like the Sens signed several older players either on the downside of their careers (Currie, Pilon) or whose careers have flatlined (Imama), but time will tell. In theory the prospects should be able to shoulder much of the offensive load this year. [Lines in game one: Smejkal-Highmore-Sokolov; Crookshank-Jarventie-Pilon; Imama-Ostapchuk-Reinhardt; Saulnier, Fizer; Heatherington-Guenette; Larsson-Matinpalo; Kleven-JBD; Thomson]
Defense Lassi Thomson DR, DOB 00 (age 23), 1-19/19 21-22 BEL 44-10-16-26 0.59 22-23 BEL 56-7-36-33 0.59 After a weird week spent in Anaheim after being lost on waivers, I expect him to run the powerplay and he should put up career numbers. Maxence Guenette DR, DOB 01 (age 22), 7-187/19 21-22 BEL 48-6-13-19 0.40 22-23 BEL 72-5-35-40 0.56 His primary roster competition is Thomson, which is a healthy thing. The odds are strong he’ll be another Max Lajoie–good at this level, but not quite able to handle full-time NHL duty Jacob Larsson DL, DOB 97 (age 26), 1-27/15 Ana, signed FA 21-22 SDG 55-2-13-15 0.27 22-23 BEL 55-4-13-17 0.31 AHL career: 191-10-47-57 0.30 NHL experience (Ana/Ott): 172-3-21-24 0.14 Despite his age he’s clearly in the twilight of his North American career–he played his way out of the NHL in Anaheim and he’s an unremarkable AHL player. I have no idea why the Sens brought him back. Dillon Heatherington DL (age 28), DOB 95, 2-50/13 Clb, signed FA 21-22 BEL 45-2-11-13 0.29 22-23 BEL 60-4-11-15 0.25 AHL career: 418-19-98-117 0.28 NHL experience (Dal/Ott): 23-0-2-2 An unremarkable older, defense-first blueliner. How useful is he? Donovan Sebrango, DL, DOB 02 (age 21), 3-63/20 Det, via trade 2021-22 GRG 66-1-6-7 0.10 2022-23 GRG 39-4-3-7 0.18 Only twenty-one, the signs are not positive the Sens have any faith in him. Jacob Bernard-Docker DR, DOB 00 (age 23), 1-26/18 21-22 BEL 58-2-7-9 0.15 22-23 BEL 41-2-4-6 0.15 NHL experience (Ott): 33-0-2-2 0.06 It’s difficult to think of a less impressive player. Being an adequate defender in the AHL is the only positive. Ryan MacKinnon DR, DOB 94 (age 29), undrafted QMJHL, signed FA 2021-22 LVP 25-2-1-3 0.12 2022-23 BRI 20-0-3-3 0.15 Not sure what the thought process was in signing him. Tyler Kleven DL, DOB 02 (age 21), 2-44/20 21-22 NCAA 38-7-3-10 0.26 22-23 NCAA 35-8-10-18 0.51 Highly touted pick will get a chance to show his stuff at this level, which is excellent, as there was no need to force him into the NHL. Nikolas Matinpalo DR, DOB 98 (age 25), undrafted Liiga, signed FA 21-22 Liiga 50-4-4-8 0.16 22-23 Liiga 51-7-9-16 0.31 Has never played in North America and I have no idea what his skill cap is–can he move the puck?
The blueline arrangement seems simple. You’d think Guenette, Thomson, and JBD play the right side with Kleven and veterans Heatherington and Larsson the left. That said, what’s the point of signing Matinpalo in if he’s not going to play? The assumption must be that JBD will be riding the pine as the 7th defensemen in the NHL, so the situation is temporary. Sebrango and MacKinnon are extras, so don’t factor in. Despite the number of bodies, this group is very thin on talent and I suspect the team will struggle transitioning the play out of their own zone.
Goaltenders Mads Sogaard DOB 00 (age 23), 2-37/19 21-22 BEL 19-14-1 .908 22-23 BEL 6-10-2 .893 NHL experience (Ott): 9-7-3 .889 Kevin Mandolese DOB 00 (age 23), 6-157/18 21-22 BEL 9-5-0 .901 22-23 BEL 6-8-3 .890 Leevi Merilainen DOB 02 (age 21), 3-71/20 21-22 OHL 31-16-5 0.891 22-23 Liiga 18-13-7 .917 Mark Sinclair DOB 96 (age 27), undrafted NCAA, signed FA 2021-22 NCAA 0-0-1 .905 2022-23 ECHL 19-7-3 .915
The goaltending situation is very straightforward, with Sogaard the expected starter and his buddy Mandolese the backup. With Merilainen in the system, there’s a quick call should the starting duo struggle or injuries occur (both have been prone to injury). This is a very young group, which is not dissimilar to last season, except the team has more support in case of injuries or poor performance.
With Belleville’s season opening tonight I’ve run out of racetrack to do projections, so we’ll save that for another installment.
The opening roster decisions are nearly complete. As expected, Josh Bailey was released from his PTO (despite the injury to Norris, there was never cap room for him so this was simply an audition for the league), while Max Guenette and Jiri Smejkal were sent to Belleville. The latter’s fate is probably not deserved (albeit expected), but Smejkal was always in a difficult spot because of the cap situation–anecdotally he made a good impression and both the wingers ahead of him on the fourth-line aren’t NHL players, so are easily displaced if the team ever gets out of cap hell. Smejkal was skating with the team as part of the lineup at practice the same day he was re-assigned due to an injury to MacEwen. These changes occurred the day after Roby Jarventie, Mads Sogaard, Dillon Heatherington, and Tarun Fizer (who I guess had only been re-assigned on paper previously) were cut. None of these moves are surprises, although like Smejkal, Jarventie deserved a better fate (albeit, I’ve argued there’s no point in keeping him in the NHL as a depth player).
Speaking of the lineup, if Ottawa sticks with the lines D. J. Smith was rolling yesterday my hopes are dim indeed. His comment that everything changes without two of his top-three centers is reasonable and I don’t expect him to have Joseph on the second line (how could he?). You could argue the Sens are entering the season with three AHL-centers and that just won’t get it done. Dorion’s self-inflicted cap problems are making a mess of what’s supposed to be an exciting opening to the season.
Marc Methot, known for his bold predictions (that he sometimes abandons), has said without Josh Norris this season the Sens don’t make the playoffs. That’s a reasonable opinion to have. For the Sens to thrive without Norris they’d need Pinto and Greig to take a step forward (or a prospect to take a giant leap forward). My theory is that Rourke Chartier escaped AHL-oblivion by serving as a placeholder for Pinto. Along with the gap in the #2 spot, the team also has an embarrassing fourth-line and those wasted minutes do add up.
As expected, the Ducks have put Lassi Thomson on waivers entering the regular season. The question fans will have is: will the Sens claim him back? I would [and four hours after I posted this, so would the Sens], but that aside, I don’t know what the Sens will do. This reminds me of is the Wade Brookbank saga, which goes back a long time (before I was writing about the Sens). Brookbank was a big (6’4), tough, undrafted defensemen signed as a free agent by the Sens in the summer of 2001 (the Marshall Johnston-era). Brookbank, who could only fight, was claimed by Nashville off waivers in 2003; he was traded to Vancouver two months later, claimed back by Ottawa from Vancouver two days after that, and then traded to Florida for nothing less than two weeks later. Brookbank‘s career in the NHL tallies just 127 games over 5 seasons, so in the end it’s much ado about nothing–Thomson is a much more talented player irrespective of what happens to him at this level. The similarities are simply the (possible) back and forth that could occur.
Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentile’s league projections are out with his Ottawa article landing recently (cf). While a number of team reporters at The Athletic thought the projections were too low (Vegas, Seattle, New Jersey, Montreal, LA, Edmonton, Colorado, Carolina, Buffalo; only the Rangers and Chicago reporters thought they were too high), Ian Mendes, along with two-thirds of the others, thought they were spot on (Mendes points out that his model has been correct for Ottawa the last few years). Those projections, 94 points, assume a healthy Josh Norris (currently in question) and a signed Shane Pinto (currently not signed). Here’s how it would look in context if the model was 100% correct (basically an impossibility, but Dom does extremely well): Atlantic Toronto 104 Boston 103 Florida 97 Tampa Bay 95 Ottawa 94 Buffalo 87 Detroit 85 Montreal 71 Rest of the Eastern Conference ahead/near of Ottawa New York Rangers 105 New Jersey 103 Pittsburgh 96 New York Islanders 92
This puts the team right on the bubble (8th place). In terms of the model, the team has done itself a favour dumping JBD (see below), although drags Travis Hamonic, Parker Kelly, Mark Kastelic, and Zack MacEwen remain. Funnily enough, the immediate problems the team is having are not included among the worst case scenarios, meaning there are many ways Ottawa’s season could collapse (as is generally the case for a bubble team).
A few hours after I posted the news came out that Norris is likely to miss the start of the season with no time table for his return. As fans know, issues with his shoulder go back to 2019 and it seems likely both that the Sens will place him on LTIR and that the freed cap space will finally allow them to sign Pinto. The question is: what becomes of Norris and how will the team deal with his absence? Clearly they will try putting Pinto in the #2 spot, but it’s not clear he’s ready for that or that Greig (who would likely be #3) is ready yet either. It throws a lot of chaos into what was a solid top six.
However unrealistic it was, there was a brief hope when JBD was put on waivers that someone would take him (so the opposite sentiment Ian Mendes paints the fans with), but his two year, one-way deal is too much of a poison pill for other GMs. It’s difficult to imagine, but JBD has been as useless in the AHL as he is the NHL (99-4-11-15/32-0-2-2), so he doesn’t help the BSens (who, after losing Thomson for nothing, are desperately short of puck moving defensemen). A shoutout to Bobby Ryan, who (like me) thinks Lassi Thomson was a better option than JBD. The org’s move makes me wonder if Parker Kelly will also be on the bus to Belleville sooner than later (unless an IR Norris clears space for Pinto); you have to wonder if Staios was involved as well, as JBD seems to be a D. J. Smith guy and this would be a visceral reminder of the short rope Smith has this season (I’m just speculating, however). The other waiver player, Sokolov, I was less concerned about. He was always heading to Belleville this year, so waivers were inevitable and while fans here love him other organizations have their own beloved bubble players.
The above were the third batch of players sent to the BSens (I’ll list them out momentarily; a note not all of them were physically sent down, but put through the waiver process to that end). The second batch (in order of ‘most surprising’ to least): Tyler Kleven (I think this is the best thing for him, especially with Thomson gone), Zach Ostapchuk, Nikolas Matinpalo (who made no noise at camp), Cole Reinhardt, and Kevin Mandolese. Other than Kleven, none of these are surprising. The third batch, besides JBD and Sokolov, include the pylon known as Jacob Larsson as well as Matthew Highmore, both AHL-vets whose demotion is no surprise (they also had to clear waivers). There will be one final batch to come after this.
A little follow-up on Sean Tierney: we’ve learned he’s a Steve Staios guy, so was undoubtedly brought in for his sake. I don’t know how much Staios pays attention to analytics, but he’s joined the most Luddite organization in that respect and Dorion will ignore it.
The final BSens member from last season who was without a team heading into this one has landed, as Cole Cassels signed an AHL-deal with San Jose.
In just-Dorion-things: the team lost their most talented AHL-prospect in Lassi Thomson for nothing on waivers (a move that does nothing to help the cap situation). Thomson was the only meaningful remainder from the Matt Duchene trade, which made him the only meaningful return for Bowen Byram. There’s no guarantee the affable 23-year old Finn is going to become a good NHLer–maybe he’s another Christian Wolanin or Max Lajoie (both currently on two-ways in Vancouver and Toronto respectively), but at least the team got something back in those cases (current Vegas Knight Michael Amadio and the scrapheap/two-way Flame known as Clark Bishop). Among pro-blueline prospects, Thomson was the best puck mover in their system (cf), so it’s difficult to express how stupid this was on Dorion’s part. You have to wonder if the Toure signing was made in preparation for putting Thomson on waivers, given that they play the same side (cf), although there’s no comparing their talent (as I said in the link above, I suspect Toure‘s contract will be considered a problem within ~2 years). It’s a suitably botched ending to the last piece of the Duchene deal and a lovely accent on Dorion’s self-created problems.
Dorion has received no criticism from the local media for losing Thomson (Mendes included), but he isgetting pushback on the fact that Shane Pinto remains unsigned (the Sens hilarious recent offer was revealed by Elliotte Friedman and that has finally forced some criticism). While the Mendes article is a mixed bag (Mathieu Joseph‘s contract is the problem), one interesting thing brought up is that there’s a limit to how much you can bury in the AHL (which is probably why so many teams magically get players on IR whenever inconvenienced by the cap): 1.15 million. I had thoughtDel Zotto‘s retirement freed up space, but no one has echoed that so apparently not. You also have to ask yourself what roster player makes that amount of money (or more) that you could bury–the answeris the aforementioned Joseph or Travis Hamonic, neither of whom is likely to get that treatment. It could also be a duo (neither Parker Kelly or Jacob Bernard-Docker are NHL players in my opinion), but is Dorion willing to do that? This is a mess of his own making, so we’ll see.
Pre-season mostly serves to eliminate players rather than reward them, but based on performance and media chatter (as in, the local media that largely serves as Dorion’s mouthpiece, but also including some others) through five of eight games has made a few judgements (excluding the established players). Who stood out? Roby Jarventie and Jiri Smejkal. The former is no surprise and I’ve been a fan of the talented Finn throughout. Smejkal, at his age, should be doing well in pre-season, although how much this really means remains an open question (I don’t think Jarventie is in the NHL barring a trade or injury, as Dorion has too many one-ways to make room for him and more developing wouldn’t hurt). On the opposite side, while he hasn’t been bad, no one is praising PTO Josh Bailey. Without roster moves there was no way for him to make the team anyway so I think his time with the team is simply as a showcase for the league.
As long expected Steve Staios, who has deep ties to Andlauer, has been hired as team president. I see this as the grim reaper knocking on Pierre Dorion’s future. I don’t expect head office moves to be made soon, but a poor start or missing the playoffs will put a merciful end to the Dorion-era.
The Sens have signedTarun Fizer to an AHL-contract, which is a credit to him and the most he could have hoped for from camp. There’s not a lot of room in Belleville (as we’ll get into in my BSens preview), but the talent on the roster has gaps so he has opportunities.
Speaking of the BSens, their camp has opened. Let’s briefly look at the roster, including the extra bodies floating around. ELCs assigned: Crookshank, Currie (vet), Daoust, Fizer (AHL-deal), McPhee (AHL-deal), Pilon (vet), Saulnier (AHL-deal); Heatherington (vet), MacKinnon (AHL-deal), Sebrango, Toure; Merilainen, Sinclair (AHL-deal). The invites: Grant Hebert, CL, DOB 1997, 22-23 ECHL 37-8-18-26 The former NCAA center is looking for an ECHL deal if he doesn’t already have one Mikael Robidoux, RW, DOB 1999, ECHL 42-9-7-16 QMJHLer is a fighter in the ECHL and that’s all he’ll be focused on Ryan Gagnon, DR, DOB 1996, ECHL 72-4-5-9 Canadian University grad played with Hebert and can only play physical Eric Williams, DR, DOB 1995, ECHL 16-2-2-4/AHL 9-0-0-0 Former NCAAer has become a fairly effective ECHL player who has had cups of coffee in the AHL (35 games) These are all older warm bodies to fill out the lineup, as the BSens roster is overflowing with players (cf) and none of the above address a missing need (the primary need is skill, especially on the blueline).
The Athletic are predicting a 10-15 point improvement for the Sens this season (the chart and more detailed analysis is here). I think that’s a fair guess. They see the team as being on the bubble with the potential to be much better or worse depending on the unknowns of the season (which fits a team on the bubble). The Athletic rates their top-six forward group as eighth in the league and rate their blueline 11th (which is a surprise). They warn that the team is overdependent on the powerplay (getting more pp time last season than any other by a wide margin), which is unlikely to repeat itself this year. There are also concerns about the goaltending and Chychrun (who played very protected minutes in Arizona). The thing about Chychrun is he’s on a good contract should things turn sour (the same cannot be said for Korpisalo).
The Sens finally re-signed Sokolov and I wonder what made the negotiations drag. Did the Sens want more term, or did Sokolov? Dorion has a tradition of two-year deals with the second one-way for prospects like Sokolov–was this part of the picture and the Russian rejected it? In the end the affable Russian signed a one-year, two-way deal that will likely see him in Belleville for most of the season (barring roster changes).
Speaking of roster changes, there are rumours that the Sens are trying to get rid of Mathieu Joseph‘s absurd contract (passim), but apparently the asking price is a 1st-round pick (they do have two in 2024). This ridiculous cost would be due to both the Sens not wanting money back and the fact that everyone knows they are in cap hell. All of this due to Dorion’s mismanagement–there was no need to sign Joseph to that deal in the first place (the problem is less the dollar amount than the term). It would be much easier for the team to move Brannstrom, which is what I thought the Sens would do when he was re-signed (Zub is also overpaid/too much term, but there’s less pressure to move him). Joseph is doing them a favour by scoring in the pre-season (something he did not in the regular last year), but like Zaitsev, they will have to over pay to get rid of him.
Both Tomas Hamara (coming off a difficult season in the OHL) and Jorian Donovan (coming off an excellent season in the OHL) have been sent from camp back to junior, as expected.
In just-Dorion-things: the Sens signed 20-year old Djibril Toure to an ELC. The 6’7 blueliner (and occasional clothing model) switched from junior-B to the OHL this past season and was seventh in scoring on his team. This has disaster written all over it (the numbers suggest he’s a lumbering defender with no puck skills). The Sens have gone down this road many times before (see below) and the fact that it never works has had no impact on repeating the effort. His numbers: Djibril Toure (DR), DOB 03 20-21 CCHL 22-2-4-6 21-22 CCHL 23-0-8-8 22-23 OHL 57-5-11-16 I can’t recall anyone with this resume becoming a quality NHLer (I’m not sure any have become quality AHLers), but the org cannot resist big defensemen. There’s no room for him in Belleville, so I assume he’s returning to the OHL. The Sens have a ton of prospects just like him (the abandoned Ben Roger and Chandler Romero from ’21; Filip Nordberg and Theo Wallberg from ’22, and Matthew Andonovski and Nicholas VanTassell from this year), which (again) makes the signing baffling. If I was a betting man he’ll be bundled in a trade or directly jettisoned in ~2 years.
Speaking of jettisoned, former Sens prospects Jonathan Aspirot (who spent four seasons in the minors) has a PTO with Calgary. He’s the second-to-last member of that roster to land somewhere (whether Calgary signs him is an open question). I said a long time ago that he was an unremarkable player who was unlikely to pan out–one could argue he was an adequate AHL blueliner, but that doesn’t necessitate an ELC.
eyeonthesens 