It has been a busy week for me that’s interfered with my usual hockey watching, but that said, there lot’s to talk about, so we’ll start with some articles of note (not forgetting that the Sens lost 3-2 to Carolina on Saturday, beat Winnipeg 3-2 on Thursday, and beat Montreal 2-1 on Wednesday since I last posted).

Callum Fraser looks into just how good (or bad) Dave Cameron has been as a coach this year and he sums it up perfectly:

one month in, Cameron hasn’t exactly impressed.

He hasn’t.  As Nichols (and others) surmised at the end of last season, so many of the roster and line changes fans were hoping for truly do seem accidental–the results of fortuitous injuries and suspensions.  Despite enormous evidence to the contrary Cameron continues to dress both Jared Cowen and Mark Borowiecki; he plays Curtis Lazar on scoring lines; he ineffectively uses callups (with the exception of Max McCormick); was clueless about Chris Wideman (it remains uncertain if his goal against Carolina will change that).  Despite his flaws Ottawa has a decent record, although fans need to keep in mind that more often than not they are regularly facing teams backup goalies (which tells you what the league thinks of the team).

The aforementioned Nichols hones in on the blueline, specifically looking at the middling starts of both Cody Ceci and Patrick Wiercioch and proposing that Methot play with the former and Karlsson with the latter (with the obvious scratching of one of the two anchors on the third pairing and adding Wideman).  It’s an interesting read and while I think he’s largely on the money I see no evidence Cameron will go there (he’s more likely to move Cowen up and Wiercioch down in the pairings).

Speaking of Nichols, he and other blogging luminaries were invited to join Ian Mendes for a TSN 1200 show called Advanced Chats.  I haven’t listened to them yet, but intend too.  It’s good on Mendes to reach out to the blogosphere and a good move for radio to try to appeal to a younger fans (for those that don’t know, radio has an elderly and failing audience).

Before I talk about the games, let’s mention the highway robbery Mark Fraser and Zack Stortini are getting with their AHL salaries–I’d say it’s hard to believe, but the long suffering fans in Bingo are used to overpaid AHL vets.  Since both players are “tough in the corners” there are fans who are happy to have them, but I’d rather spend that money (and veteran roster spots) on guys who will help the team win.  Moving on.

The B-Sens lost 3-1 to Rochester on Friday, with some interesting changes to the roster: Ben Harpur and Nick Tuzzolino were scratched on defense, in part because Michael Kostka returned from injury, but also to make room for the recalled Chris Carlisle–overall I liked the move since Binghamton struggles to move the puck from the back end.  However, Eric O’Dell was saddled with the dead weight that Colin Greening is on the first line (Zack Stortini, back from suspension, was happily on the fourth line).  Chris Driedger had the start in goal and here’s a look at the goals:
1. Kostka took a really stupid holding penalty and on the PP a nice cross crease feed results in a goal (no chance for Driedger)
2. the fourth line gets broken down on the cycle and Driedger is beaten from just above the dot
3. Dziurzynski creates a turnover on the PK and a hustling McCormick and Mullen create a 2-on-1 that gets the latter a goal
4. terrible turnover by Fraser in his own zone leads to a big rebound and goal

On Saturday Luke Richardson lost his mind in scratching Tobias Lindberg and Nick Paul, an incredibly stupid decision that resulted in an atrocious 6-1 loss to Toronto that’s not even worth recapping* (Matt O’Connor‘s struggles continued incidentally; Jeff Ulmer offers very brief thoughts on it–I have more on Richardson in a forthcoming post).

[* I decided to take a quick look at the goals at least:
1. Harpur throws the puck away and Nylander beats O’Connor short side with a bullet wrister
2. Robinson loses his stick so can’t defend the high slot where O’Connor is beat through a Greening screen
3. Lepine took an utterly stupid penalty (inexplicably throwing his elbow into the face of the Marlie player) and shortly after the PP Fraser throws the puck away and Panik scores on the 2-on-1
4. O’Dell/Kostka lose the puck battle in the corner and O’Connor somehow gives up a weak backhander right in front
5. Dzingel scores on a sharp angle off a rebound
6. Marlies win the draw and O’Connor is beat cleanly off a weak wrist shot
7. Ewanyk takes a pointless penalty and on the PP O’Connor is beat by the one-timer]

Some sanity returned last night against Leigh Valley as Richardson brought back the two players (randomly scratching Buddy Robison along with the moribund Alex Guptill) and reunited the top line from the start of the season; he also dressed seven defensemen which, given Binghamton’s deficiencies on the blueline, makes some sense.  I was able to watch the bulk of this game, so here are the goals and then a few comments:
1. O’Dell scores off his own rebound on the PP through a screen
2. Really dumb penalties to start the second period (particularly by Travis Ewanyk) lead to the tying goal (a nice cross-crease pass 5-on-3)
3. Stortini has an empty net as Greening beats LaBarbera but hits the underside of the crossbar
4. Dziurzynski wins the draw cleanly and redirects Lepine‘s shot in
5. Stortini scores on the PP as O’Dell‘s pass is redirected to him by a Leigh Valley defenseman
–Stortini knocked out in an opening faceoff fight–he missed about half the first period because of it–I’m a bit lost on why Jeff thought this fight was good for the team
-it wasn’t a great night for Kostka, particularly with some terrible decisions on the PP
–Dzingel saved a goal when it was 1-1 in the 2nd with a hook that prevented a goal into a wide open net

Despite the score Binghamton was outplayed and were fortunate to come out with a win.  As nice as it was for Stortini to pick up a couple of goals, he wasn’t the best player on the ice for Bingo (Driedger was by far) and anyone who expects that production to continue was probably KO’d by Tyrell Goulbourne (Jeff’s reaction is exactly the kind of thing I feared–hockey fans love a tough guy so he can get away with being useless for 10 games so long as he’s okay in just one).  For those who don’t follow the AHL, Leigh Valley is a terrible team but they heavily outplayed Binghamton (both teams were at the end of 3-in-3, so there’s no excuses there).  Binghamton continues to take too many penalties, aren’t very good on the PK, and struggle to move the puck out of their end–I’m happy about the win, but the underlying problems are not being solved.

After the IceMen’s 3-0 loss (see below) they traded Joe Zarbo for former IceMan star Nathan Moon.  A former Pittsburgh draft pick (4-102/08), Moon has been a productive forward in the ECHL for years now and should help the talent-thin team going forward.  Besides his acquisition Jordan Sims (son of the coach) entered the lineup now that he’s recovered from injury.

On Wednesday a largely lifeless Evansville lost 3-0 to Indy–Bengtsberg took the loss–a quick look at the goals:
1. A nice tip in front
2. Noreau gets turned into a pylon and Bengtsberg gets deked for the goal
3. PP goal off a rebound (poor defensive coverage in front, particularly by Trebish)

On Friday the IceMen had their revenge with a 4-2 win.  Bengtsberg played again (with Greenham taking the week off for a probable groin pull in his last start; Dieude-Fauvel was also hurt in that game).  A look at the goals:
1. Strandberg creates a turnover and his pass to the point is ripped in by Rutkowski for the first Evansville goal in the first period this year
2. After back-to-back saves on the PK Bengtsberg can’t stop the third while on his belly
3. No one picks up Ben Marshall who walks into the slot and rifles the puck passed Bengtsberg
4. Penny springs Fawcett all alone who makes a great move for the goal
5. Strandberg makes a nice little pass to Leveille in the slot who dekes for the goal
6. 2-on-1 Wideman keeps and scores with a knuckleball

On Saturday Evansville lost 2-1 Cincinnati (Noreau was scratched in favour of Rumble).  A look at the goals:
1. Bengstberg beat far side on a 2-on-1
2. 3-on-2 shot through a screen beats Bengtsberg far side
3. Leveille scores a powerplay goal all alone in front with just 17 seconds left

The problem of scoring remains for Evansville and it’s difficult to see how that can be remedied except internally (Moon is a better player than Zarbo, but I’m not sure there are many other bullets in the trade gun for the team).  Evansville’s blueline is awful and it’s their goaltending that’s kept so many of these games close.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 9, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

This post is a little late as I’ve been away in Mass Effect space for the first time (I blame all errors and spelling mistakes on BioWare).  Anyway, Max McCormick has been returned to Binghamton after Ottawa’s 5-3 loss to Detroit (not a Rembrandt by the Sens, as Callum Fraser discusses).  It’s a sensible move as McCormick is going to have more opportunities to develop in the AHL than limited minutes on Ottawa’s fourth line.  Mark Stone being suspended for two games…I don’t have a strong reaction to it.  I’m fine with players being suspended for hits to the head regardless of intent, but I understand the frustration of the NHL’s lack of consistency–what can you expect from an organisation that puts Chris Pronger as the face of discipline?

Luke P offers some pity observations about stats–basic stuff, but good for those either unfamiliar or struggling with what its all about.  Ary M provides a list of stats websites, incidentally (although he’s using stats in the broadest of possible senses–ie, those that include simply basic things like goals, assists, etc).

I watched Binghamton’s 7-5 loss to Utica on Friday.  The score belies Matt O’Connor‘s continuing struggles in goal.  Here are specific observations:
-first goal: deflection beats O’Connor
–Guptill hit the post from the goal line
-fantastic backhand goal by Lindberg on a great feed from Dzingel
–Harpur turned into a pylon by Grenier (he does not score, however)
-Utica’s goaltender gaves the puck to Dzingel who pots it into the empty net
–Jones ties it on a 3-on-1 with a straight up shot
-needless and dangerous hit by Hobbs (distance from the board)
–O’Connor beaten clean from the point on the 5-on-3 PP
-knuckleball beats O’Connor from top of the circle
-turnover at the blueline leads to a great pass from Robinson to Dziurzynski who scores with a redirect
–O’Dell giveaway with Shinkaruk all alone in front for the goal
-with Greening hurt the PP lines got scrambled; Ewanyk‘s feed to Dzingel off an rebound makes it 5-4
–Lindberg sprung by Dzingel again and scores with the exact same backhand move
–O’Connor has a puck just go through him
-missplay by Mullen ultimately leads to the empty net goal

For those paying attention the best Binghamton line all season has been whichever one Tobias Lindberg is playing on–he’s a fantastic possession player with great hands.  O’Connor has given up at least one weak goal with every start and I’m starting to think the team would be better off having him back up Driedger for now rather than simply playing every other game.  Incidentally, after this game Alex Wideman was finally sent down to Evansville–something I expected at the start of the season and is long overdue.

I watched Evansville’s 3-2 win over Greenville.  The lineup had changed once again (Zay-Leveille-Fawcett; Zarbo-Hussey-Strandberg; Penny-Lukin-MacDonald/Dunn; Dieude-Fauvel/Carlsson; Rumble-Rutkowski; Himelson-Humphries; Greenham in net).  The goals:
-a missed defensive assignment (man in front) by Himelson leads to first goal
-poor backcheck by MacDonald leads to the second
–Dunn‘s pass deflects in off a defenseman’s skate
–Zay wide open in the slot and ties it
–Penny gets the winning goal on a nice 3-on-2 play
During the game Hussey went head first into the boards (he didn’t miss a shift) and Leveille was hurt when he was boarded (played very limited shifts afterwards).  Evansville continued to give up a ton of grade A scoring opportunities and Greenham was fantastic.

I didn’t get to watch Evansville’s 5-2 loss to South Carolina, but I have seen the highlights so here are the goals (this was Bengtsberg‘s first start for the team; the only other lineup change was Noreau replacing Dieude-Fauvel on the blueline):
–Humphries easily loses a puck battle behind the net and Himelson doesn’t have his man covered in front of the net
–Rumble gets walked around resulting from a short breakaway
-no one on the PK picked up the player sneaking down the back who banged in a rebound
–Stranberg (who doesn’t picked up an assist on the play) turns the puck over in the offensive zone and Leveille scores with a simple wrist shot from the top of the slot
-5-on-3 goal where South Carolina pounces on a rebound in front with superior numbers
–Zarbo shoots from the boards and it goes over Komm who went down early
-empty-netter

Scrolling through the game I can add that Noreau looked awful (again), Carlsson looked good, Evansville continued to give up a ton of grade A chances, and poor Bengtsberg played better than his numbers indicate.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 3, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

I caught parts of Ottawa’s 5-4 shootout win against Calgary last night (the Raaymaker offers a full review), with nothing occurring to change my opinions on players (although Erik Karlsson was struggling at times–perhaps putting too much pressure on himself to do too much).  It’s nice for the team to get the win, but there were no signs that we’re going to see an overall improvement in their play.

I try to avoid listening to TSN 1200, but I caught part of the pre-show before last night’s game where Dean Brown not only took Bryan Murray’s stance on Mikael Wikstrand using spurious arguments (it’s not how he or people he knows would behave–for those scoring at home, that’s a logical fallacy–anecdotal in this case), but adding in unsubstantiated rumours to bolster them–that’s beneath him.  Clearly it’s in Brown’s interest to support the choices of the organisation, but adding in unsubstantiated rumours is stooping pretty low.

it’s hard not to think about the man-bun any time Ottawa plays (Raaymaker above has comments, incidentally), and I have to wonder how much of Jared Cowen‘s supposed upside was derived from playing with Jared Spurgeon back in Spokane.  While I think many of us believe that Bryan Murray will never give up on the guy, Murray can be very funny about how he feels about a player–if he ever turns on Cowen he’ll shit all over him and attempt to move him ASAP–I just don’t know what it will take for him to get there.  GMs have a hard time swallowing their egos when it comes to their own first-round picks.

Ray Ferraro (around the 19 minute mark) gives his description and rationale over why puck possession (ergo advanced stats) matter:

To get the puck on net, to go get it, to control it, and to play defense in the other team’s end.  That’s puck possession.  I think initially when people first heard puck possession the image came you know of a big strong forward that cycled the puck in the corner and just kind of held it over there, but I guess that’s one way of possessing the puck.  The other way is to shoot it on the goalie and go get it and keep it in their zone so that by the time the other team gets it they’re so tired they get to the red line and just chip it into your zone and you come right back at them.  That’s puck possession. … My view of the people that don’t acknowledge what some of the advanced metrics might look like–I think they believe in them anyway, they just don’t want to read a chart or a graph about them.

He goes on to talk about Patrick Roy and Todd McLellen’s comments about analytics and it follows the same line.  It’s funny to think that he could be completely spot on that people are simply intimidated or annoyed by the presentation of the facts (either in form or by who presents them).

I watched Binghamton’s 4-3 lose to Wilkes-Barre in an entertaining game they could have won.  The lineup was shook up by roster moves and Richardson scrambled all of his lines (Greening-O’Dell-Schneider, Lindberg-Dzingel-Robinson, Wideman-Paul-Dziurzynski, Guptill-Ewanyk-Hobbs; Fraser-Mullen, Claesson-Carlisle, Harpur-Tuzzolino).  Here are the highlights:
-poor defensive coverage by Alex Wideman leads to the Penguins first goal
-terrible coverage by Tuzzolino nearly costs another
-Richardson put the fourth line on one of the powerplays and the only moment of note was nearly giving up a shorthanded goal
–Mark Fraser made an ill-advised hit attempt that lead to a 3-on-1 and the Penguins second goal
–Danny Hobbs lost his defensive assignment that lead to a wide open chance in front of the net
–Nick Paul missed a wide open net off a rebound
–Chris Carlisle made it 2-1 on the powerplay with a one-timer top-shelf
-a terrible line change and a slow Tuzzolino made it 3-1
–Cole Schneider roofed it off a face-off win on the powerplay
-BSens tied it on a late second period powerplay as the Penguins own-goaled off Schneider‘s centering feed
–Patrick Mullen made a great pass to Alex Guptill in traffic to give him a mini-breakaway (nothing came of it)
–Tuzzolino made a good defensive play during a trainwreck in front of the net
-Pens score on a shot off the rush simply beating Chris Driedger
–Wideman had a great chance off the rush, but couldn’t handle a bouncing puck
-BSens didn’t generate much of anything in the final 90 seconds with the goaltender pulled

General observations: Carlisle played very sparingly, as Richardson mostly rotated the other five defensemen; I can see why the smallish defenseman wasn’t drafted despite good offensive numbers–he doesn’t have great speed; the usual players were the best for the BSens again–I can’t emphasize enough how good Tobias Lindberg‘s hands are (great game for Ryan Dzingel as well–lot’s of chances); Greening should not be on a scoring line (I’d rather see Paul in his place); Robinson also shouldn’t be on a scoring line–he seems to have only a binary function: shoot or throw the puck into the corner.  It’s amazing how competitive the BSens have been with weak depth at forward (icing essentially a full ECHL fourth line) and a talent-starved blueline–if there are any key injuries or more callups the team is going to crash and burn.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 29, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

The Sens recalled Matt Puempel due to various injuries; his addition makes more sense than Max McCormick, but he’s still not the most deserving BSen to be recalled (so much for the organisations vaunted claim of rewarding their best players in the minors).  Binghamton has also recalled Chris Carlisle–perhaps the gong show that is Tuzzolino will end.  I think Troy Rutkowski was more deserving, but Carlisle is an adequate pick.

Ross A makes the case (and he’s preaching to the choir here) that Shane Prince deserves some top-six consideration–or at least freedom from the lead weights that are Chris Neil and Zack Smith.  At least for tonight it appears as though Cameron agrees, although he’s scratching Chris Wideman and giving us the gruesome Cowen-Borowiecki combination again (perhaps Calgary is bad enough to get away with it–we shall see)–granted some believe he has little choice here with the directives coming from on high.

We finally know the real Mikael Wikstrand story both for why he left the team and why he wanted to stay in Sweden.  In an interview he revealed his brother is suffering from leukemia and also talked about the situation with Ottawa (this is via Google translate):

Why did you not tell me anything about this earlier in the conversation you had with Ottawa?

“I do not know … It’s really bad of me. It’s me terribly sorry that I did not. I should have taken it up in a prettier way and told me why I wanted to play at home. But I’m a guy that keeps a lot of things for myself, keep it in the family. My agent did not know about it before.”

Do you regret that choice in retrospect?

“It’s done. I should have said it to the agent, Ottawa and Farjestad how it is – and why I wanted to play closer to home. There is a big factor.”

It’s very easy to wag one’s finger at Wikstrand and tell him he could and should have handled things better, but to my mind it’s pretty understandable that larger concerns made him lose sight of the proper way to handle it (I certainly echo Nichols points on the matter).  My hope is this allows some rapprochement between he and the organisation.

I missed watching Binghamton’s 4-1 loss live and haven’t had the time to pour over the game in detail, but I have a few observations to supplement Jeff Ulmer‘s recap:
-the BSens lone (powerplay) goal came off a terrible line change by the Devils with Puempel banging in Nick Paul‘s rebound
-prior to that, Puempel took a selfish double minor
–Zack Stortini‘s boarding penalty was less malevolence and more his own stupidity (which is still no excuse)
-the first goal on O’Connor was a stinker as the 6’5 goaltender was deep in his net and beat five-hole at a terrible angle
-the second Devils goal rests on the shoulders of Mike Kostka who was caught watching the play
-the third goal was much the same as Travis Ewanyk had no idea there was a player behind him in the slot
-I have no idea why Eric O’Dell felt the need to instigate a fight after the hit on Tobias Lindberg–it was a bit low, but not particularly dirty (low to the hip, not at the knees)
-the fourth goal was a rocket one-timer, so no chance for O’Connor
-Jeff points out that the powerplay has been awful and the key problem (as I’ve said continually) is putting Stortini on it (he has the #1 and #2 powerplays reversed in his post on special teams–he also missed PK regular Cole Schneider, who has one of Binghamton’s two shorthanded goals; I agree with him on who has been the better goaltender thus far–Driedger)

The league has done the BSens a favour by suspending Stortini for a couple of games.  A quick additional note: Buddy Robinson is healthy again and will join the lineup tonight.

EA NHL hockey simmed the NHL season just prior too (not very meaningful, but for those curious, they had the Sens just squeaking into the playoffs).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 28, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

I didn’t watch the Sens 4-1 loss to Arizona, but Ary M provides a blow-by-blow recap.  I’m curious to see who (if anyone) the Sens recall to replace Curtis Lazar (I’d guess Matt Puempel, although he isn’t the most de serving).  Bryan Murray is overly fond of meat & potatoes players (ergo the Max McCormick recall), but at some point he needs players who can put the puck in the net.

The BSens beat Toronto 5-1 last night.  There were two lineup changes from their previous game, as Chris Driedger got the start and Alex Wideman replaced the recalled McCormick (Greening took the latter’s spot on the third line while Wideman played on the fourth).  Prior to the game Luke Richardson praised Tuzzolino‘s performance which is appalling.  As for the game itself (Jeff Ulmer also offers a breakdown), here’s a quick look at the goals and a few other moments of note: the scoring opened with Cole Schneider giving Matt Puempel a tap-in on a 2-on-1; David Dziurzynki made it 2-0 when his shot simply sailed through Garret Sparks from just inside the blueline; Tobias Lindberg made a great pass to Eric O’Dell to make it 3-0; right after Mark Fraser fought Richard Clune as payback for a hit on Ryan Dzingel, the Marlies scored as Josh Leivo fired through a screen; Schneider scored with a backhand move on a breakaway; there was a nice give & go between Puempel and Schneider (latter with the goal).  Other items of note: Nick Paul missed on a first period breakaway; the aforementioned Tuzzolino fell asleep in front of his own net early in the second and nearly gave up a goal; Lepine almost managed an own-goal in front of his net (2nd); Lindberg made a great pickoff in his own zone leading to a 2-on-1; Fraser took a needless penalty (2nd); Lindberg missed high backhand on a breakaway (3rd).  Despite the final score the Marlies dominated in the early 2nd period when the score was 2-0 and 3-0 (where the poor defensive plays and bad penalty above are mentioned).  The first-line was again the best, with the second continuing to improve.  [A look at the goals:
1. Shortly after Mullen saved a goal in front with a timely stick check with a Marlie all alone in front, Schneider creates the turn over and he feeds Puempel for the empty net on a 2-on-1
2. Dziurzynski scores with an innocent wrist shot from a long way out
3. Nice little pass by Lindberg who creates the turnover and O’Dell makes no mistake from in close
4. Hobbs turns it over and Ewanyk loses his check so Leivo is all alone in the slot to shoot through a crowd
5. Puempel springs Schneider on a breakaway and he makes no mistake with a deke
6. Paul gets the puck out of danger and Puempel gives Schneider the empty net on a 2-on-1]

I agree with Jeff that Wideman was invisible; I think the porous Marlies defense Jeff mentioned occurred when they got far behind and defensemen were gambling; Jeff agrees with me that Zack Storini doesn’t work on the powerplay–he can’t stake, he can’t pass, and he can’t shoot–his stats last year were an aberration (with that said, I don’t expect Richardson to remove him); a lot of BSens fans are praising Fraser, particularly for defending his teammate, but I’m still on the fence about him–in the first five games of the season he’s taken selfish penalties in two of them (tonight and against Albany), along with being guilty of an atrocious turnover leading to a goal (the first game against Saint John).  The latter will happen to any blueliner at some point, but there’s no excuse for the dumb penalties.  Fraser has no offensive upside, so he has to be excellent in all other facets of the game and he needs to police himself better.

The IceMen played their second game of the season last night against last year’s Kelly Cup champs Toledo, with a similar result to game one (a 2-1 loss).  The lineup changes were Swede Sebastien Strandberg replacing Mark Anthoine and he was a big improvement; Samuel Noreau replaced Dieude-Fauvel which didn’t help the team at all.  The individual play continued, being particularly bad from veterans Matt Hussey and Daultan Leveille.  The first goal against Scott Greenham was due to poor defensive coverage and on the second Noreau screened him; Evansville’s lone goal was a Fawcett tip off a point shot.  Zarbo played well again; Troy Rutkowski had a strong game (as did Greenham).  Most of the game Toledo dominated and was clearly more talented, but the IceMen did put on great pressure after their goal (so the final half of the third period).  It’s just two games in, but a lack of talent may be the downfall of Evansville.

I’m puzzled by fans (and professionals) who simply reject analytics.  Hockey people like Patrick Roy, John Tortorella, the Sens organisation, and others express dismissive views despite showing little to no understanding of the material.  This kind of rejection isn’t unique to hockey–there are many instances where conventional wisdom is used as “evidence” to reject actual evidence.  In the case of the NHL I don’t believe there’s any perniciousness here, instead I think those trying to break down the game into usable data are fighting two separate problems: 1) the struggle to understand analytics (and what their numbers mean), and 2) the weight of decades of hyperbole and conventional wisdom that’s accumulated from the era before analytics.  The issues are interrelated, because the media has done a poor to non-existent job in addressing it–part of that, surely, is because accepting the importance of the data would promptly unemploy a huge swath of TV and radio personalities.  Secondly, while the proof that analytics is legitimate continues to pour in, it’s new enough that challenges to it can still be seen as reasonable–despite the fact most of them boil down to ‘hockey can’t be understood purely by numbers.’  It’s basically a battle of faith at this point (people believe something is true to the point that they are not open to it being wrong).  Once the media (and NHL) fully embrace analytics that opposition will vanish, but it may be another ten years or so before we see that happen.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 25, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 12 Comments

The Sens lost an entertaining game 5-4 shootout loss to New Jersey last night (losing despite being up 4-2).  Andrew Hammond wasn’t sharp, but I’d put the loss firmly on the shoulders of Dave Cameron and the odious play of Jared Cowen and Mark Borowiecki (why are they ever on the ice in the last minute of a period?).  Ross A provides a blow-by-blow breakdown while he also reminds us of how bad the two aforementioned defensemen are.

Travis Yost talked about the worst contracts in the league and one thing I wanted to pull from that is this:

Philadelphia and Toronto ignored innumerable warning signs and abysmal underlying statistics, and paid a dear price.  This, of course, is not hindsight. And it’s probably not a coincidence that three of the most out-spoken critics of these signings (including Cam Charron, Tyler Dellow, and Eric Tulsky) are all now gainfully employed by NHL teams.

I bring this up in an Ottawa context because, despite having an analytics consultant, there’s no strong evidence the organisation pays any attention to it.  This is exactly the reason why the Sens consistently bring in broken down, over valued veterans and overvalue terrible but physical defensemen.

I watched the BSens 3-2 loss to St. John’s on Wednesday (the second of their back-to-back with the IceCaps).  The only lineup changes were O’Connor in net and Tuzzolino on the blueline (replacing the injured Ben Harpur).  The game was less entertaining and eventful than Tuesday’s OT win.  The BSens got down 3-0 early, as O’Connor gave up two bad goals and an unlucky one (all in the first period).  Once again it was the top line (O’Dell-Lindberg-Dzingel) that brought the team back, with O’Dell cashing in after Lindberg missed a half-open net.  Max McCormick made it 3-2 by banging in a loose puck, but that was it for the scoring.  McCormick also took a really dumb, selfish roughing penalty in the second, but it didn’t wind up hurting the team.  Binghamton had very little sustained pressure, although with the goalie pulled they had a couple of great chances.  I liked the team’s resilience, but I’m still not happy with some of Richardson’s choices.  Tuzzolino, incidentally, was not very good and really belongs in the ECHL. [A look at the goals:
1. O’Connor is simply beat by the shot from the point
2. O’Connor gives out a huge rebound and puts the puck in his own the net
3. A weak shot goes in off Tuzzolino
4. Just after failing to score on a double minor Lindberg misses an empty net, but a backwards between the legs pass to O’Dell right in front gets banged in
5. McCormick is left alone at the side of the net and bangs in a rebound]

I was listening to the Evansville podcast the other day and while I enjoyed it I have no idea what made them think Tyson Fawcett played well in the team’s opener–he did nothing useful.  Speaking of the IceMen, P. J. Fenton (claimed on waivers) has signed with Sonderjysk in Norway so he won’t be suiting up in the ECHL any time soon.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 23, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Along with discussing the news that Clarke MacArthur and Marc Methot are both suffering from concussions, Nichols brings up Mikael Wikstrand‘s situation in which Bryan Murray said this:

Well, supposedly his brother is sick and he’d like to be closer to home, but I think the team he hopes to play for is three hours away. We’re about eight hours away on an airplane, so I don’t think there’s that big of a difference in the impact that he might have. But I do understand if there’s an illness. I understand that part of it. The point being that he made a commitment to play here. We signed him to a contract and paid him accordingly to our obligations and we’re asking him to honour that contract at this point in time.

Why Murray included “supposedly” here is beyond me.  Nichols believes the Sens would be better off allowing him to play in Sweden, but for me I’d only indulge him on that point if he signs a favourable extension that precludes him from playing anywhere else (with bonuses due only after he’s reported and started playing).  There’s really no point in letting an asset disappear and that’s entirely possible if they leave him buried in Sweden all year long.  Time will tell if Murray’s hardline stance works or not.

The NHL is remarkably resistant to change and the newly hired John Tortorella illustrates one of the reasons why:

There are so many red flags going on with analytics. … we were 10th in puck possession [in Vancouver] and finished 25th.  Last year LA was fifth and didn’t make it.

Those isolated examples do not refute the theory–the fact that Torts doesn’t understand that is incredibly.  Incidentally (and amusingly), he offered different numbers on the exact same point when asked about it on Prime Time Sports back in September.  I liked Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen as a scout, but it’s clear he’s large lost in his current position.

Incidentally, on the PDOcast (episode 8) they reference the difference between dump and chase hockey versus entering the zone with possession, with the latter creating twice as many scoring chances.

I watched Binghamton’s 5-4 OT win over Saint John’s yesterday.  There were no lineup changes other than Chris Driedger getting the start in net.  Lamentably Zack Stortini continued to be used on the powerplay, although his dumb penalty of the night (offensive zone hold) was not with the man advantage.  The BSens dominated the first period, but were on their heels in the second.  Colin Greening opened the scoring on a bad angled shot; Mark Fraser‘s terrible turnover beside his own net tied the game, while a missed defensive assignment from Ben Harpur gave Saint John a 2-1 lead.  The third IceCap goal was via a weird bounce off the boards.  The BSens scored late on a defensive turnover (O’Dell), before Saint John made it 4-2 on a harmless point shot in the third that went straight through Driedger.  The BSens stormed back with a great shot from Matt Puempel and then tied is via a Travis Ewanyk (!) deflection.  Offensive maestro Fredrik Claesson won the game in OT with a wrap around effort.  Once again the O’Dell line was by far the best.  God knows what Greening is supposed to do with his linemates–I’d prefer Stortini play with Ewanyk and Hobbs while the aforementioned two-million dollar man lines up with Dziurzynski and McCormick.  At any rate, it was a fun game to watch. [A look at the goals:
1. Greening blocks a shot after an unforced turnover by Fraser and scores off Mullen‘s rebound SH
2. A soft call on O’Dell–when he lifted the stick the St. John’s player let go and it flew through the air–and on the PP 3 BSens lose a puck battle against one player, Fraser takes the man and not the puck leaving Holloway alone to score
3. Claesson turns it over and Driedger is beat cleanly on the bad-angle shot
4. Harpur‘s clear around the boards is deflected out to Dumont alone in front who makes no mistake
5. Dzingel creates the turnover, Lindberg sends O’Dell in all alone who makes no mistake
6. Harpur passes to the wrong team and a tip off the point shot goes in
7. Puempel scores from a shot from the dot on the PP
8. Ewanyk tips in Mullen‘s point shot
9. Claesson scores banging in his own rebound after a wrap around in OT]

SHL
Andreas Englund (Djurgardens) – 10-0-0-0
Filip Ahl (HV71) – 7-0-0-0 (SuperElit 7-9-5-14)
Marcus Hogberg (Linkoping) – 1.93 .921
Mikael Wikstrand – suspended

Allsvenskan
Christian Jaros (Asploven) – 9-1-1-2

CHL
Francis Perron (Rouyn-Noranda) – 10-9-10-19
Filip Chlapik (Charlottetown) – 10-3-7-10
Thomas Chabot (Saint John) – 7-1-2-3
Gabriel Gagne (Victoriaville) – has not played

USHL
Joel Daccord (Muskegon) – 4.02 .842

NCAA
Colin White (Boston College) – 3-2-0-2
Robbie Baillargeon (Boston U) – 2-0-0-0
Quentin Shore (Denver) – 4-2-0-2
Chris Leblanc (Merrimack) – 2-1-0-1
Shane Eiserman (New Hampshire) – 3-0-2-2
Kelly Summers (Clarkson) – 4-0-2-2
Miles Gendron (Connecticut) – 2-1-0-1
Christian Wolanin (North Dakota) – 2-0-0-0

Josh Weissbock takes a look at the success of NCAA defensemen in the NHL in reference to when they leave college.  He makes the somewhat obvious point that those who leave earlier are the more highly prized players by NHL teams and therefore have a greater chance to succeed.  I wish he hadn’t included Dead Puck Era data, but presumably to get a decent enough sample size he felt he had no choice.  Anyway, interesting reading.

Ross A offers up a beginners breakdown of analytics (Torts take note), so for those looking to get their feet wet and learn what Corsi and Fenwick are all about, check it out!

The Statstrack app is something being offered by former NHLer Drake Berehowsky and while the utility is targeted at coaches and managers its an interesting development.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 21, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

I didn’t catch much of the Sens 4-3 shootout loss to Nashville, but you can read Michaela Schreiter‘s breakdown that includes the highlights.  I did see enough to know that Ottawa’s lamentable two defensemen continued to make bad decisions, but I’m not sure what’s left to say about that at this point.

Nichols believes that in the absence of Clarke MacArthur that the HST line needs to be broken up to solidify the second line.  I agree with him wholeheartedly that Alex Chaisson (or Curtis Lazar or Milan Michalek) aren’t the answer, so perhaps that’s one way to go, but I’m uncertain about Cameron’s ability to make good choices at this point.

The Binghamton lineup for their 2-1 loss to Syracuse was unchanged from the previous game except that Matt O’Connor was in goal.  As for the game itself, Luke Richardson’s addiction to putting Zach Stortini on the powerplay came back to haunt him as the lumbering enforcer took two stupid penalties with the man-advantage, the second resulting in Syracuse’s winning goal.  I hope Richardson will change how he’s using him, but I doubt it.  On the whole I thought the Crunch held the edge in play, particularly dominating the first period.  As for the BSens, they had another strong performance from the first line (Lindberg–O’Dell–Dzingel); it was also Nick Paul‘s best game thus far (and Matt Puempel‘s). [A look at the goals:
1. Fraser makes an inexplicable check attempt in the offensive zone leading to a 2-on-1 where Tambellini keeps and beats O’Connor short side
2. Schneider picks the pocket of Richard and score SH on the deke
3. Just after a PP had expired Tambellini scores off a weak one-timer through O’Connor‘s legs]

It was Evansville’s opening game of the season last night (a 3-1 loss to Indy) and they proceeded with the following lines (with Scott Greenham in goal):
Hussey-Leveille-Zarbo
Penny-Zay-MacDonald
Dunn-Lukin-Fawcett / Anthoine (extra forward)
Dieude-Fauvel-Carlsson
Carlisle-Rutkowski
Himelson-Humphries

I watched the game (broadcast in better quality than the AHL), and it featured a lot of individual play and lack of structure by the IceMen–clearly linemates need to develop chemistry.  In general they seemed to be less talented lineup than Indy, although one game isn’t enough to be sure about that conclusion.  As for players on AHL contracts or ELC’s, Joe Zarbo performed the best (although he didn’t stand out); Chris Carlisle, in contrast, was pretty bad (despite getting an assist on the only goal). [goals: 1. Zay turns it over creating a 2-on-1, 2. On the PP Greenham is beaten high short side, 3. On the PP Zarbo walks out front and scores high with the backhand, 4. Dunn turns it over leading to an empty-net goal.]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 18, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

The Sens 7-3 win over Columbus was a lot closer than the score suggests.  I echo Trevor Shackles sentiments about the lamentable Jared Cowen-Mark Borowiecki pairing, which continues to be awful.  At this point you have to question Cameron’s ability to assess his players–lending some credence to Nichols concern that Cameron’s enlightened player usage last season was simply fortuitous circumstances.  As a side note, the bad Karma from signing Mark Fraser had its ripples in the game as Clarke MacArthur was out of the lineup after an innocuous fall to the ice.

There’s not much to say about the Sens lifeless 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh (Callum Fraser reminds us that the dreaded pairing is still awful–Trevor providing the numbers for both).  The players who have performed well thus far this season continue to do so, and those that haven’t still aren’t.  It was nice to see Shane Prince dressed, but other than brief moments when he wasn’t buried on the fourth line he wasn’t that visible.  Incidentally, Nichols recaps the team’s first three games and a lot of what he says involves line and lineup changes (all the ones you’d expect).

Matt O’Connor was returned to Binghamton now that Andrew Hammond is healthy, resulting in Scott Greenham being sent to Evansville (expect both to start tonight for their respective teams).  Tony Androckitis offers a preview of the North Division, but it’s largely just a list of the prospects who will play.

Roster changes continue as the team released Branden Komm, Donnie Harris, and Stephen Pierog (only the former is surprising).  The IceMen claimed P. J. Fenton off waivers from Fort Wayne (30-year old spent the last two season in tier-2 Germany), but he’s not signed so may never play; they also traded for goaltender Keegan Asmundson (from Orlando; he’s a rookie NCAA grad out of Canisius); and acquired the ECHL rights to Samuel Noreau (a failing Rangers prospect).  The final roster posted by the team will likely continue to change, but it’s how the team will open (12 forwards, including one on IR, 9 defensemen, and 3 goaltenders).

Pension Plan Puppets gave a lukewarm review of Rob Vollman‘s latest Hockey Abstract volume.  According to PPP if you are already firmly into analytics there’s nothing new, but it’s newbie friendly.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 17, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Sens beat the Leafs 5-4 in a shootout on Saturday.  I caught some of the game (Callum Fraser has a full recap), and as expected Jared Cowen and Mark Borowiecki continued their Keystone Cops routine from the pre-season.  I missed the Sunday night game (inexplicably the NHL does not schedule around my gaming night), but Ross A provides a summary of their 3-1 loss.  Trevor Shackles worries the team is too reliant on its top line and besides arguing that players should be shifted brings up that Shane Prince should be inserted and Chris Neil deleted–whatever else happens, I’d love to see that.  I also think that playing Curtis Lazar in a top-six role makes little sense.

Micah Blake McCurdy has an interesting prediction model for the season, with a preview that’s worth looking at–keeping in mind the following shortcomings:

Roster changes for skaters are not considered. To do so would require a much more sophisticated model that estimated team talent from estimates of individual player talent. New players, such as McDavid and Eichel, are not included for this reason. Similarly, aging effects are not considered. Coaching effects and in-game dynamics are obviously not considered, so things like relative sensitivity to score effects are not included. Penalty drawing and taking are not included.

Those are big issues, but it’s interesting to look through.  He has Ottawa just squeaking into the playoffs.

For those following the Mike Richards case I think James Mirtle does a great job summarizing the worrying elements that have come out of it.  Particularly egregious, in my mind, is the behaviour of King’s GM Dean Lombardi:

There’s no indication – and certainly not after the arrest – that the Kings tried to help Richards with his problem. And had he been performing at a higher level, on a more reasonable contract, it’s unlikely the team would have been so quick to nullify his deal. (Especially given there was talk this summer that the Kings were considering welcoming defenceman Slava Voynov – who pleaded no contest to domestic assault in July – back into the fold had he not returned to Russia amid immigration issues related to his jail time.)

The piece is well worth reading in full.

Binghamton announced its opening roster (already changed as Ryan Penny has subsequently been sent down to Evansville), which includes two extra defensemen and four (now three) extra forwards.  Part of the logjam exists because of the injuries to Buddy Robinson (back sometime in November), Alex Guptill (I believe it’s short-term), and Michael Sdao (out long term), as well as the demotion of Colin Greening.  The team named Zack Stortini as captain, which fits Luke Richardson’s love for veterans.  I think the captaincy is overvalued by fans, so I’m not sure how much that matters.

I watched Binghamton’s opener against Albany and largely agree with Jeff Ulmer‘s summary.  It’s worth noting that the supposed fourth line actually received third line minutes (and vice versa).  Among the prospects playing Tobias Lindberg was by far the most impressive–I’m not sure if his talent will translate at the next level, but my own concerns that his numbers were inflated by teammates in Oshawa have largely melted away.  A few other notes: Mark Fraser took a really dumb/selfish unsportsmanlike penalty that could have caused Binghamton all kinds of trouble (they spent most of the first half of the second period in the box); Ben Harpur launched a few grenades up ice from his own zone; Stortini was better than I expected, but doesn’t have enough speed for the powerplay and Richardson took an unnecessary risk putting him there (resulting in a number of shorthanded opportunities against) when the score was 3-1 (he also embarrassed himself in a non-fight with Raman Hrabarenka); Chris Driedger was excellent; the blueline (with the exceptions of Mike Kostka and Patrick Mullen) struggled to move the puck up the ice.
[Specific look at the goals:
1. Greening tips in Mullen‘s shot on the PP
2. O’Dell takes a dumb penalty and on the PP which is compounded when Greening gets a soft boarding call and on the 5-on-3 Blandisi‘s pass bounces in off a defenseman
3. Lindberg passes on the 2-on-1 and O’Dell makes no mistake
4. Great pass by Kostka finds Dziurzynski by himself in the slot
5. Behind the back pass by Lindberg to O’Dell gives him an open net]

As mentioned above Ryan Penny has been added to the IceMen’s lineup (he did not participate in Binghamton’s opener), but he’s only one part of a number of transactions for the team: Matt Harlow, Radoslav Illo, J. P. Labardo, and Robin Soudek were all released, while 36-year old Matt Hussey (who didn’t play last year after spending six seasons in the DEL) was signed.  The decision to sign Hussey and release Soudek puzzles me and I’m curious what the explanation for each will be.

Tidying up a few details from Evansville’s FHL affiliate the Berlin River Drivers: much of their roster (12) is made up of players from defunct FHL teams (the Watertown Wolves, the Dayton Demonz, and the Berkshire Battalion).  Besides those players, they’ve signed last year’s FHL MVP Cody Dion (who comes via the SPHL/CHL), Russian goaltender Dmitri Ryazhinov (who failed out of the MHL and is coming from the Kazakhstan league), veteran LNAH goon Neil Posillico, and veteran Czech player Andre Niec (the 33-year old has bounced around European tier-2 and tier-3 leagues most of his career).  Interestingly, goaltender Dustin Carlson participated in Columbus’ training camp, which is a compliment to the 29-year old who has spent most of his career in the SPHL.  I’ve heard of Nicolas Matejovsky before, as I think he was briefly ranked when he was draft eligible (he’s a rookie coming out of tier-2 college), but outside possible fill-ins for Evansville’s roster, none of these players are going to show up in Binghamton.

The NWHL is enjoying its inaugural season (with four teams in Boston, Buffalo, New York, and I think Hartford–they’re called Connecticut so it seems like a safe guess).  While unrelated to the previous NWHL (99-07), it seems like its spiritual successor.  The salaries, with a few exceptions, won’t be living wages, but it’s a start for women’s professional hockey.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)1

October 13, 2015
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments