Senators News: July 7th

-Things are getting desperate for Don Brennan as he tries to perform a Jedi mind trick on his limited readership to convince them that he wants the Sens to try and sign Alexander Semin (Varada, via the link below, likes the idea).  Brennan doesn’t like Russian players and there’s no basis for the speculation (all that’s happening is that Semin‘s agent is trying to drum up limited interest by listing Semin‘s demands to play more).  Brennan also throws out the exploded chestnut that the Sens need to hit the cap floor and therefore must spend (I don’t know how many times I and others have to explain that this is wrong, although in fairness to Brennan the idea came to him via blogger speculation, so it’s only indirect ineptitude).

Varada says a number of things in his sign-off to free agency, but the part I enjoyed most was “Ottawa looked at their forward depth (and for our purposes here, I’m using “depth” to mean a very good number one center, a goal scorer with bionic knees, a 40 year old who might not come back, a reclamation project, and a bunch of rookies), and then at their back end, and decided to switch one out for the other.”  He’s referring to the FolignoMethot trade, but it’s his description of the Sens’ forwards that amuses me.

Jared Crozier is still worried that the Sens aren’t tough enough and that their divisional rivals might take their lunch money now that Carkner et al have departed.  He writes “Toronto added size in James Van Riemsdyk, Montreal brought in the leagues leader in fights Brandon Prust as well as Colby Armstrong, Buffalo toughened up through trade acquiring Steve Ott and Free Agency with John Scott and the Boston Bruins are well, the Boston Bruins, who hit the ice every game with beating their opponents up in mind.”  Let’s deconstruct this: if size is what Crozier is concerned with, Marc Methot is also big (so was Filip Kuba for that matter and so am I–maybe I should make a few phone calls), so what’s his point with Van Riemsdyk?  The addition of Prust means the Habs have gone from one fighter to two (Armstrong isn’t much of a fighter), which makes them marginally tougher (but could they have been less physical?).  John Scott played 35 games last year and was only in five fights (all against other regular pugilists), so I guess he’ll get to fight Carkner on the Island along with the usual suspects (when he’s in the lineup), to which I say so what?  Steve Ott is a significant addition, but the Sabres remain a very small team upfront (they traded Paul Gaustad remember).  I just don’t see the big swing in physicality that he does through these personnel changes.

Additionally, Crozier makes the claim that “While Bryan Murray and the Senators decided on going down a different path then the fist fuelled season which led them to the playoffs.”  The suggestion here is that fighting is what propelled the Sens into the playoffs.  That assertion isn’t justified (nor could it be), but just limiting the idea to the players who left (Konopka and Carkner), how does that work when both players combined for a season’s worth of games played?  And what does that say about Crozier’s opinion of the current Sens players who fight?  Chris Neil, Zack Smith, Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Marc Methot, Mark Borowiecki (if he’s on the team), and a number of guys in the minors.  I just don’t see the point he’s trying to make.  The Sens aren’t going to be run out of a rink because Konopka isn’t parked in the pressbox.

Adrian Dater answers some questions from readers and makes a couple of comments worth repeating: he reminds us that Minnesota Wild owner Craig Leipold was complaining about not making money three months before signing Ryan Suter and Zach Parise to their big, long term contracts; he also talks about GM hypocrisy when it comes to players exercising their rights, “GM David Poile went into an extended pout with the media after Suter picked  Minnesota, divulging what were supposed to remain private details of their negotiations. (Isn’t it delicious how NHL GMs can cut players loose any time they want (see: Richards, Mike, in Philadelphia last year), but when a player chooses to employ some hardball on them, well…..that’s just an outrage isn’t it?

-This is very off-topic, but Andrey Osadchenko has an excellent interview with Nail Yakupov.

Senators News: July 6th

Kaspars Daugavins has filed for arbitration and Peter Raaymakers and Nichols have already weighed in.  Both explore the CBA guidelines to the process and it’s clear that Daugavins will not be awarded so much that the Sens can walk away.  They will have to accept his contract one way or another, so the question is will they retain him if he’s given a one-way deal?  My expectation is that they will not.  Daugavins is an undersized fourth-liner who clearly isn’t part of the big picture in Ottawa, so he’ll likely be dealt if the Sens can find any takers (perhaps Bruce Garrioch will attach him to his Bobby Ryan rumours, but see below).  One thing I want to comment on from Raaymakers blog is that he says Zenon Konopka pushed Daugavins from the playoff lineup–I’d also add Mark Stone and Jacob Silfverberg.  No one moved down the lineup faster than Daugavins.

-With the death of the Rick Nash rumours Bruce Garrioch has moved on to Bobby Ryan rumours.  With no word (unofficial or otherwise) of the club talking to Anaheim about making a trade, he says sources claim they would be one of a number of teams interested.  Garrioch suggests the Ducks would want a second-line center as part of the return for Ryan (which Mark Parisi points out comes from Darren Dreger) which he believes could be Mika Zibanejad.  That idea is so absurd I can’t think of a clever way of describing how ridiculous it is.  He also suggests Robin Lehner as part of the deal (he feels the need to include Lehner in every trade rumour), even though the Ducks have no need for a goaltender; he also says the Ducks are looking for a young blueliner to replace Justin Schultz (which may or may not be true).  Finally he throws in that the Sens are below the cap floor (which isn’t a real concern, as I explained Wednesday and now Allen Panzeri has made the same point), but the Ducks are even further from the floor than Ottawa and losing Ryan for prospects would make their situation worse.  So what does this amount too?  Absolutely nothing.  Ryan won’t be a Senator.

-Nick Foligno signed with Columbus (3.05 for three years), earning far more than I would have been comfortable paying him.

Senators News: July 5th

Nichols serves up a transcript of Tim Murray’s appearance on The Team 1200 and he had a lot to say, so I’ll break it down by topic:

Marc Methot, “We’re really happy with the deal. Marc’s been around a long time; played in the OHL. Lots of history with him – not personally … just lots of viewings. You would assume that he would be very happy. No disrespect to where he came from but extremely happy to leave there and come to us for a multitude of reasons, including the one that it is his hometown. (It’s) kind of the same way as Parise went back to (Minnesota). I think it’s a plus. We gave up a good, young player to get him and we were quite willing to do that with our needs and with what we looked at going forward – with what’s in the organization and what’s not in the organization. These trades are made for today but they’re also made for years down the road. He’s excited and we’re excited and everybody hopes it works out obviously. He’s a big body. He skates well. He’s better defensively than he his offensively and obviously with Erik, we want him jumping all of the time. We want him going all the time. We want him taking chances most of the time. Maybe not all the time…but most of the time. We want him to just play his game that just won him the Norris Trophy. If you get a big body like that that can skate and recover and really, and hopefully it’s not often, but has to back Erik up… I like guys that can skate and can defend with their feet and long stick and reach and I think that’s what he is. I’m sure he’s going to get the chance to show that he can play with Erik and then it’s up to him. You can probably say the same thing about Jared Cowen; it’s just that he’s a younger player that’s all and maybe he’s not quite ready for that. Or maybe he is. Training camp will show a lot obviously.”  So there’s no guarantee he’ll play with Karlsson regularly, which is no surprise.  I think in an ideal world Methot is in the 3-4 hole on the blueline, not a 2 (just due to his lack of offensive production), but on the Sens blueline he’ll play elevated minutes.  Murray also makes it clear the Sens had no hesitation in trading Foligno, which indicates their evaluation of his contributions is much lower than some of the fan base’s.

Guillaume Latendresse, “With the concussions, we talk about concussions all the time like we’re all experts and we don’t really know (anything). I personally don’t know everything that Minnesota did with him when he was concussed. You bring him in and you get your doctors to look at him. We have got one of the best in Mark Aubry (sp?) when it comes to concussion problems. Guillaume comes in and he’s excited to come to us and he gets cleared by (the doctors). The contract is a good contract. He’s not the perfect player and we know that. We got him at $1.2 (million) or whatever it is with a $2.0 million cap hit, so there is some incentive there for him to make more money by scoring goals. He’s not far off from scoring 24 or 25 goals a couple of years ago. He has missed a lot of time, you’re right… but that could be a blessing if the head is completely healed. The wear and tear on the body over the last couple of years where the guys are going 100 mph and killing each other (on the ice), he’s kind of missed that a little bit – which is not what he wanted. We hope he’s healthy and we think he’s healthy and we’ve been told he’s healthy but you can never tell what the next hit will do obviously. We think it was a good bet by us to try and get some talent into the lineup that wasn’t part of the silly season. It was the same time of year but wasn’t quite the same kind of contract. We think he’s [Latendresse] a top-six forward. He’s a big body. He’s going to go to the net. He’s going to score goals and get points in different ways than Nick Foligno does. It’s going to be more of a north-south game. It’s going to be take the puck to the net. It’s going to be finishing checks. Now how often he’s going to do that and how consistent he is, we’ll find out. But that’s the type of player he was in Montreal. He played well against Ottawa. In my time here, we did need some size. He’s a little bit different and I have to say because Paul (MacLean)’s been preaching skating and you have to skate, so the one thing that we said to him was, ‘Get working out and being in shape and ready to skate.’ Because he’s not the prettiest skater and he’s not the greatest skater, so we’re going to try to make it fit. He’s a little different kind of player than guys that we’ve been trying to bring into the system. But you’re always going to have players just for different reasons – Mark Stone, who we like a ton, is not a great skater but we think he fits. We can talk about wanting to skate 200’ and skating being very important to the way that Paul coaches the game, but you’re still, I believe, other players, different types of players, can thrive within that system.”  The take away here is how carefully Murray is setting up expectations for him.  The Sens know he’s not a perfect player and are hoping he’ll work hard and produce.  The backhanded comment about Foligno is an interesting one and clearly the Sens wanted Nick to play a more north-south game.

-Losing Matt Carkner, “Well, I think at the end of the day, we might have went two years. We didn’t offer that until he started talking to other teams obviously. Hey, we all like Matt and just to get it out of the way, I don’t begrudge Matt whatsoever. He has worked extremely hard (and spent) a lot of years in the minors. … His chances of winning there are probably are a little less than if he had chosen to go a different route. And that’s fine. He has worked hard. He finally got a pretty big paycheck here and he’s looked after his family here for the foreseeable future for sure… if he’s smart with his money – which I know Matt is. There’s never going to be a bad word said about him. Now do we wish that he stayed with us for a little less money and a little less term? Of course. We’re selfish. We like guys like that but certainly, there are different reasons that scared us off from that.”  I think Nichols is exactly right in that the final comment is about Carkner‘s knees.  I’m thankful the Sens didn’t offer two years and that the Islanders threw crazy money and term at him.  A great guy, but I don’t think there’s much gas left in the tank.

-In regards to media hysteria about team toughness, “I like our team’s toughness and you just named them all (Neil, Borowiecki, Greening, Smith) and I like the different aspects of toughness that those guys bring. Is there a Matt Carkner in that group? No, he’s the nuclear deterrent and that’s what he is. We don’t have that now, so it’s going to have to be more of a team-toughness type of scenario. Maybe Zack is going to have to do a little bit more. Maybe Colin is going to have to do a little bit more. We know that if Borowiecki is on the team, he’s going to be ultra-competitive and really, really hard to play against. And that’s what team toughness comes down to: being hard to play against. If John Scott takes a run at Erik and Matt (Carkner)’s not in the lineup that night or if he’s only playing half the games for us or whatever, I’m not sure that there’s much that you can do about it. In those scenarios, I think you have to let the league take care of that type of thing but I think, just so far as being hard to play against and team toughness, those five or so guys that you named, and I think other guys can step up just a little bit – not fighting fifteen times or whatever but just being hard to play against, it will make us a tougher team.”  The need for a top heavyweight remains one of the most overrated aspects in hockey.  For all the ink spilled about the Ranger series this year people seem to forget that Brian Boyle isn’t a heavyweight–he’s simply big and agitating.  Guys like John Scott and Steve MacIntyre can’t play the game, so any time they dress they are hurting their team on the ice if they aren’t attacking someone.  Incidentally, it’s interesting Eric Gryba wasn’t included in the toughness comments since he can fight, but rarely dropped the gloves this past season in Binghamton (I wonder if that’s part of the reason Borowiecki moved ahead of him on the depth chart).

-On who impressed him at the development camp, “For sure and I’m going to forget names or not mention somebody and they’re going to get an excerpt of this and they’re going to get real mad or whatever. I’m used to that now because I do like to bring up names… but I mean, Borowiecki winning the ‘hardest worker’ again. It’s almost automatic with him. He will never be the most popular guy when he’s a NHL player for us but even on some practice days, he’s not going to be very popular with his own teammates because that’s how he practices. When you go and do a one-on-one drill with him, he is going to put you on your ass; whether you like it or not. It doesn’t matter if you’re the star of the team or not. He’s going to bring that aspect of just never stopping; never taking his foot off that pedal. We know what he is from a skill standpoint but his intangibles, his heart and his courage are off the chart, so we’re looking forward to him obviously. Robin (Lehner) came in (to camp) in a lot better shape with a lot better attitude. He spoke about it. It was very good. It’s easy to talk about (it) so we’ll see how it keeps going here… but real good signs. Some of the younger guys like (Michael) Sdao and Ben Blood and guys like that, they’re big bodies. You’re never quite sure when the mask is on in college versus when the mask comes off. Again, it’s not fighting, when you drill somebody in college, you’re just skating away and looking for the next guy to drill. Well, at our level and in the AHL level, they’re not skating away; they’re coming back for you, so there has to be a little courage there that we’ll find out about. But they’re big guys and they’re strong guys, so we’re excited about some of the bigger guys for sure. And the smaller guys obviously, there is high skill levels with some of these guys. They are top end junior kids, Noesen for one guy, showed a huge maturity in just in his outlook on how to be a pro and how to work out. I mean, I could go on and on but there were a lot of positives from guys that don’t have big expectations but there were a lot of improvements and positives from guys that have been talked about a lot.”  The thing that strikes me is his reference to Sdao, whom fans attending this year’s camp have criticised, but clearly they aren’t seeing what the organisation is.  Sdao was the most feared fighter in the USHL when he was drafted and that intimidation will be expected in Binghamton after he graduates.  He seems to have more offensive upside than Blood who is purely a physically punishing defensive defenseman.

Bruce Garrioch leaps into the Don Brennan sky-is-falling boat as he bemoans the loss of pressbox regulars Matt Carkner and Zenon Konopka.  Of the players The Ottawa Sun loves seemingly only Chris Phillips remains, but fortunately they can drown their sorrows with some of the Big Rig’s brew.  I don’t share the same level of dislike for Garrioch that most Sens bloggers do, but Bruce should be professional enough to separate his emotional ties to players and look at the big picture.  Konopka‘s loss has no impact on the team whatsoever–almost all his fights were staged and his faceoff approach has just been made illegal.  Carkner did stand up for his teammates, but whatever advantage that’s supposed to make had no discernible impact the year before and the deal he signed with the Islanders wasn’t one anyone should have matched.

Jesse Winchester and his 11 goals in 233 games await an offer from an NHL team.  I expect him to sign late with either an AHL deal or in Europe.  I think he’d look good in Binghamton, but there’s probably no room for him there given how many forwards are signed.

Tom Urtz Jr. offers his list of the top-50 prospects following the draft.  On the Sens sides of things he has Mark Stone at #49, Robin Lehner is #19, and Mika Zibanejad is #6.  Urtz doesn’t explain how he created his list, so take it with a grain of salt.

Senators News: July 4th

Darren Kramer writes about his development camp experience and his article is worth reading in full.  It includes an explanation to Robbie Baillargeon‘s mysterious Tweet about rescuing Daniel Alfredsson (“We were very fortunate to have had the opportunity to go to [the RCMP] training site to learn some of the ins and outs of rescuing a hostage in addition to acting out some scenarios. We were split up into four groups – three groups that would enter the house and one group of three snipers that camped out in the forest overlooking the house. All the players put the gear on (coveralls, bulletproof vest, mask etc.) and were given guns that shot small paint pellets. Each group had a leader and we were shown pictures of the house and had to come up with a plan to get the hostage out of the house safely. The suspects were some of the RCMP officers helping out; we had no idea how many ‘suspects’ were inside of the house. Let me tell you, we all knew this was not a real scenario but my heart was sure racing the house not knowing what to expect! Our rescue plot ended up working out and we were able to save the hostage, which was a 160-pound dummy that we had to haul out of the three-story house. After that experience I truly gained that much more respect for our officers that risk their lives everyday to save ours!“).  Kramer also talks about the team’s Canada Day scavenger hunt, “All of the prospects went downtown where we were split up into smaller groups and were sent on a scavenger hunt. We couldn’t believe nobody was lost at the end of the day! We were given a list of places and people to find, and that task was hard enough as it was… now include hundreds of thousands of people into the mix. Thankfully, my group ended up winning, maybe it’s because we had Ottawa native Corey Cowick with us who really knows the city.”  Kramer mentioned that he roomed with future Binghamton teammate Chris Wideman.

DaveYoung worries about the Sens reaching the cap floor (echoed by Varada) and wonders if they will sign players to reach it.  I don’t see it, largely because they aren’t as far away from the floor as Dave indicates (he says 5 million, but that’s not based on a full roster).  When the roster is rounded out with Jakob Silfverberg, Mark Borowiecki, and a re-signed Jim O’Brien the Sens payroll is over 52 million.  In addition, the Sens aren’t required to be cap compliant until the season starts and that won’t happen without a new CBA, so the threshold in essence doesn’t exist.

Shane Prince‘s unofficial contract numbers have been posted on Capgeek (0.876).

Hugh Jessiman‘s contract details are also posted (0.600).

-Here’s my profile of Hugh Jessiman.

-I wonder how much of Ryan Suter‘s new salary with the Wild gets kicked back to Shea Weber?

Player Profile: Hugh Jessiman

The Senators have signed a veteran AHL-forward for Binghamton in the form of Hugh Jessiman.

Hugh Jessiman (RW, 6’6, DOB 1984, 1-12/03 NYR)
2009-10 AHL Milwaukee 78-20-22-42 +9 111pim FM 7 (ppg.0.53 )
2010-11 AHL Rockford/Rochester 50-8-5-13 -8 74pim FM 4 (ppg 0.26)
2010-11 NHL Florida 2-0-0-0 -1 5pim FM 1 (ppg 0.00)
2011-12 AHL Lake Erie/Abbotsford 67-27-17-44 +6 108pim FM 5 (ppg 0.65)

The 2002-03 NCAA Rookie of the Year is a 2003 first-round draft bust by the New York Rangers (apparently the Rangers believed he was the fourth best player in the draft).  With his size it remains surprising he’s only played 2 NHL games, which to me indicates he has other issues that prevent him from being an NHLer (Elite Prospects says he lacks hockey sense).  He’s played over 400 games in the AHL and has bounced around the last four years (09-10 was the only season of the last four where he wasn’t traded).  He doesn’t fight as much as he used too, but he does drop the gloves.  Given how small Binghamton’s forward group is going to be his size is a welcome addition.  Hockey Futures (top link) provided this talent analysis, “His skating is good for a big man and he has good hands. Additionally, over the past year [08-09], he has improved his work ethic and strength on the puck. But he still needs to polish his defensive zone coverage and on-ice decisions; additionally, he is lacking good balance, which has not improved over the last three seasons.”  There’s no question that Jessiman has been signed to help Binghamton, so there’s no need to worry about his possible impact on Ottawa.  I like the signing for the size reasons mentioned earlier (there could be 5-7 undersized forwards in the AHL lineup).  Unlike Peter Raaymakers I don’t expect many more moves to bolster Binghamton (other than a third goalie).  Peter points out, incidentally, that “One thing you’ve got to give Jessiman credit for is his perseverance. He wasn’t signed to a contract at all last season, so he started the season on a professional try-out deal with the Lake Erie.”

Senators News: July 3rd

Scott hooked up with Columbus blogger Matt Wagner to learn more about Marc Methot.  Wagner says “Meth is a good guy in the room and very personable when dealing with the community off the ice. On ice, he’s a great stay at home d-man who knows how to use his body with great on ice vision. I think he’s a bit underrated as a pure defender. He’s not a good offensive player. At times he almost seems afraid to pinch in or join the rush beause he doesn’t want to get caught. His shot is powerful when he does use it, but his accuracy isn’t good. I’d say his penalty killing ability and his mental game [have improved most]. Early on, he took some bad penalties now and then, and he had some major issues with patience (he came to the attention of a lot of fans as a prospect when he went into training camp one year and said he wanted to make the team or get traded before opening day.) He thinks more before he speaks now, and that applies to how he handles his in game responsibilities as well. His injuries were a major factor this year, and most of them were of the 100% bad luck variety. I think it’s possible. I believe he will flourish with a more offensively minded partner, and I can see Meth filling in nicely in the role Kuba had played with Karlsson over the last few seasons.”  This confirms what little I’d seen written about Methot before.

-Scott also included a McKeen’s report from 2010-11 about Guillaume Latendressea smooth, versatile giant with an understated skillset .. good playmaker – boasts a hard, probing shot as well as some slick puckhandling abilities .. nimble for his size and possessing deceiving lateral agility, yet misses an explosive first-step burst as well as elite quickness .. effective when using his superior size and strength to lay out big hits and drive for the net .. still an erratic physical presence who doesn’t always bring the required belligerance or intensity .. oscillates between the extremes sometimes on the same shift .. provided a needed big-body presence in the top six here – created possession down low and making hard plays in the crease .. struggles to sustain his confidence when the goals dry up however.”  I don’t think Latendresse is much of an unknown, given that many fans saw him play for Montreal.  Consistency is going to be the issue with him (that and conditioning).

DarrenM considers the Sens roster set and looks at their hypothetical lineup: Silfverberg-Spezza-Michalek, Latendresse-Turris-Alfredsson, Regin-Smith-Neil, Condra-O’Brien-Greening, Butler; Methot-Karlsson, Cowen-Gonchar, Phillips-Lundin, Borowiecki; Anderson, Bishop.  He thinks the Sens have one of the better bottom six forwards in the league, have improved their defence, and should take less penalties: “For a team that averaged the second-most PIMs per game (14.0), the  Senators shed three regulars who were amongst the team’s worst offenders  in penalties taken per 60 minutes of ice-time (note: Konopka led team with 2.7 penalties per 60. Carkner led the  defencemen with 1.3 penalties per 60 and Foligno was third amongst  forwards with 1.5.)“.  He doesn’t think Ottawa has replaced Kuba‘s offensive contributions, but believes Latendresse and Silfverberg can make up for the loss of Foligno.  “All things considered, Ottawa’s 2012-2013 roster really isn’t all that different from it’s 2011-2012 roster. The young players will be more experienced and a little better, while the losses of Foligno and Kuba appear to be offset by the additions made yesterday and the probable emergence of rookie talent. Ultimately, Ottawa’s roster next season probably puts them in a position to compete again for a playoff spot, but I certainly don’t see them in the mix for home-ice advantage in the postseason. A lot of things went right for Ottawa last season, and many of them are unlikely to be repeated — 78 points for Karlsson, 35 goals for Michalek, and fourth in the league in scoring being three that instantly come to mind. The most intriguing thing about the lineup, really, will be what happens at training camp. As it stands, there appears to be little room for players in Ottawa’s deep prospect pool to find a spot on the team, although you can be sure that Bryan Murray wouldn’t hesitate to make room if any of them turn heads in September.”  I could quibble with the lines, but I agree about the players who will be on the roster on opening night (although Bobby Butler may be gone and replaced by one of the prospects).  I also agree with Darren about the primary loss for the Sens, which is the offensive production from the blueline.  Other than Cowen there’s no real potential for growth among any of the players added to the lineup.

Randy Lee states the obvious, “The more you do here, the less you have to do on July 1. And on July 1 you’ve got to overpay to fill a hole. That’s just the nature of the business. And if we can get our own assets, develop them and make sure they’re good people, sign the right guys, it can put you in a good position.”

Don Brennan, who lost a daily column with Zenon Konopka‘s departure along with two of his favourites (Carkner and Foligno), expresses his anger at the organisation by demonstrating his inability to observe that Tie Domi has attended every Sens development camp for the last few years.  Don also appears to be one of the only people who thought Rick Nash would come to Ottawa.  He writes that the Sens lost a known quantity in Foligno who could be counted on to produce 40 points a season (he’s done it once in four years).  He does include a tiny bit of reporting in the article, “Murray and director of player personnel Pierre Dorion raved about the play of Zibanejad and Hoffman on the final day of development camp.”  It’s easy to pick on Brennan, who isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer, but like most people I wonder when (if) the clock is going to run out on him.

Aaron Portzline indirectly illustrates the point of Columbus talking to Ottawa about Rick Nash–to jack up the price for his preferred destinations.  Unfortunately for Scott Howson and Blue Jacket fans, that doesn’t work when the player is holding all the cards (just ask Dany Heatley and Edmonton).

-Here’s my look at the Sens success in the draft (2005-07).

-And here’s a look at the last three days of the Sens development camp.

Senators Development Camp (days five through seven)

-The Senators development camped has wrapped up and here’s the update from the first part of the camp.

-Here’s Sens TV’s video of day 5, day 7, and the awards (Mark Borowiecki winning the hardest worker yet again).  No video was provided for day 6 (yesterday) or day 3 (the day of the scrimmage).

-The organisation singled out the following players for praise: Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad, Mark Stone, Robin Lehner, and Borowiecki.  No real surprises, but it does not include top picks Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, or Cody Ceci, nor does it include Binghamton vet David Dziurzynski or new pros Cole Schneider, Ben Blood, Darren Kramer, Jakub Culek, or Chris Wideman.  This doesn’t mean those players (and others) didn’t perform well, just that they weren’t among those who stood out among the best.

Rob Brodie writes a development camp wrap focussing on Mika Zibanejad.

Cody Ceci wraps things up with his blog.

-The camps are a ton of fun and I recommend fans attend it when they can.  I think fans take the performances a bit too seriously however, or rather, their own opinions of those performances.  I listen to what the organisation as the indicator of what to expect going forward.

-The three-on-three tourney which ended the camp was won by Team Orange.  These were the lineups:
Team Black
Bryce Aneloski
Cameron Darcy
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Trevor Van Riemsdyk
Mark Stone

Team White
Cody Ceci
David Dziurzynski
Max McCormick
Matt Puempel
Michael Sdao

Team Blue
Ben Blood
Ryan Dzingel
Mike Hoffman
Stefan Noesen
Mikael Wikstrand

Team Grey
Timothy Boyle
Wacey Hamilton
Brad Peltz
Cole Schneider
Chris Wideman

Team Red
Robert Baillargeon
Mark Borowiecki
Fredrik Claesson
Jeff Costello
Jakub Culek

Team Orange
Corey Cowick
Jordan Fransoo
Darren Kramer
Shane Prince
Mika Zibanejad

Goaltenders
François Brassard
Chris Driedger
Robin Lehner

Looking at Ottawa’s Draft Success (05-07)

Articles reviewing draft acumen proliferate at this time of year (TSN’s Scott Cullen did one recently) and as engaging as they are I’ve always had problems with the way they are defined and presented.  Examinations of the draft that cover a long period of time fail to account for the changes in the league and the draft itself, so that the comparison isn’t particularly apt.  When articles cover more recent drafts (Hockey Futures does them at five-year intervals) they are forced to make judgements on players whose futures are yet to be defined.  All this preamble is to make two key points: 1) the attitude and approach to the NHL draft changed seismically post-lockout, 2) the typical make-or-break moment for a draft pick varies depending on what league they were drafted from.  To expand on the second point: CHL draftees take about five-years to develop (allowing for two more years of junior and then the full length of their ELC); college-bound players can take six, seven, or even eight years, depending on how much time they spend in college (eg, Ben Blood was drafted in 2007, but won’t start his ELC until the fall of 2012); European players used to be even more varied when teams kept their rights forever, but with the deals signed with the DEL, SEL, and SM-Liiga (where rights are only retained for two years) their usual range is now like the CHL (five years).

Given that, how have the Sens done with their selections?  Not enough time has passed to judge many of the post-lockout drafts, but I think I can make judgements on John Muckler’s last two drafts and give some thoughts about Bryan Murray’s first.  So, without further adieu:

2005
Muckler clearly had a hard-on for international tournaments, as every player except the one still with the Sens played in those tournaments.  Pre-KHL Muckler gambled on taking Russians who slid down the draft, but only one (Zubov) ever suited up for the organisation.  It was not a great draft for the Sens by any standard.  A few stats: there are 54/230 (23.4%) number of regular NHLers from the draft (this is based on 200+ games played and my judgement; you can judge for yourself here).  By round: 1st 19/30, 2nd 10/31, 3rd 5/30, 4th 7/34, 5th 6/36, 6th 2/31, 7th 5/36.  Players who have played over 200 games: 34 (14 1st, 6 2nd, 3 3rd, 5 4th, 2 5th, 1 6th, 3 7th); played 100-199 games: 18 (5 1st, 3 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 4th, 4 5th, 1 6th, 2 7th).  Teams that excelled: Montreal, Nashville, and Columbus each had four players make the grade, while Dallas, Detroit, the Rangers, Pittsburgh, and San Jose had three each.  Calgary, Florida, and the Islanders were the only teams to strike out.

1-9 Brian Lee (DR, US high school/USHL; WJC) – NHL (Tampa Bay); 187 NHL games played; marginal NHLer (5-6 d-man)
An enigmatic player who after five years as a professional has still not defined what kind of player he is.  He’s big, but not physical.  He makes a good first pass, but is unable to produce offensively.  He can play a limited role in the NHL, but does not dominate in the AHL.  His career, for however long it goes, will likely remain on the margins.  Many Sens fans groused about Lee because of the fantastic players taken after him (Anze Kopitar and Marc Staal), but he’s not the worst player taken in the first round (3 never played a game, 6 more played less than 50), and one can argue whether he’s better or worse than Jack Skille who was taken by Chicago at #7.  To me, the pick isn’t a complete failure, but it’s several steps removed from what it could or should have been.
3-70 Vitali Anikeyenko (DR, Russia tier-3; U-18) – deceased (Lokomotiv plane crash); bust
Other than attending one development camp (in 2005), the Sens could got a sniff of Anikeyenko, who spent the bulk of his career playing for Lokomotiv (which tragically cost him his life).  Whether he had NHL potential or not remains an open question, but judging by his KHL numbers I’d suggest he projected at best a bottom-pairing defender.  Naturally there were better picks available, including Conn Smyth winner Jonathan Quick (#72), but between his selection and the Sens next pick, only 3 (of 24) NHL regulars were selected.  The pick has to be viewed as a failure, both for the Sens inability to anticipate the problems of signing Russian players and also for not ascertaining just how interested Anikeyenko was in coming to North America.
4-95 Cody Bass (CR, OHL; U-18) – two-way contract (Columbus); 48 NHL games; AHLer
He spent four years in the Senators organisation where he helped Binghamton win the Calder Cup, but Bass remains a fringe player.  Not productive or durable enough for full-time fourth line duty in the NHL, he’s destined to bounce back and forth between leagues as a “character guy”.  Players like him are good for their organisations.  In terms of who was available between his pick and the Sens next there was depth blueliner Chris Butler (#96) and Chris VandeVelde (#97) could become an NHLer with Edmonton.  In terms of style of play, the Sens would have been better off picking Jared Boll (#101).
4-98 Ilya Zubov (C/LW, Russia tier-2; U-18); – KHL (Moscow); 11 NHL games; AHLer
The most successful of the Russian picks, he spent two years in the organisation where he established himself as a productive AHLer.  Like Bass he probably could have stayed in North America and been an occasional call-up, but he clearly did not have the talent to become a regular NHLer.  There were 5 regular NHL players over the next 17 picks (the best is Keith Yandle at #105), so plenty of better talent was available.
4-115 Janne Kolehmainen (LW, SM-Liiga; WJC) – SM-Liiga (KalPa) – bust
The last Finn selected by the Senators, there’s never been any interest expressed by the Sens to sign the big winger, whose performance flatlined the year after he was drafted.  If there’s any solace in the wasted pick it’s that only 1 NHL regular was selected over the following 21 picks (Darren Helm at #132).
5-136 Tomas Kudelka (DL, Czech junior; U-18) – Czech Elite League (HC Vitkovice) – marginal AHLer
The second-last Czech picked by the Sens (Jakub Culek was the last), he was a solid junior player in the WHL who did not excel in his three years in the AHL.  In a lot of ways he was like a less-talented Brian Lee, as he has good size, but wasn’t overly physical and his offensive game did not translate at a higher level.  There are 5 NHL regulars over the next 50 picks (granting that enforcer Ryan Reaves could stop being regular at virtually any moment), but none of those players match the talent of those missed earlier.
6-186 Dmitri Megalinsky (DL, Russia tier-3; WJC) – KHL (Novokuznetsk) – bust
Here again the Sens can be criticised for not doing their homework, because unlike Anikeyenko (one development camp) or Zubov (two years in the AHL) they never got a sniff of Megalinsky, who became a KHL regular.  There were 2 NHL regulars selected through the next 18 picks and Sergei Kostitsyn (#200) certainly would have been a better role of the dice.  Whether Megalinsky had the chops to play in the NHL remains an unresolved, but doubtful proposition.
7-204 Colin Greening (C/LW, CISAA) – NHL (Ottawa); 106 NHL games – NHL regular (top-9 forward)
The final role of the dice was the only true payoff in the draft.  I suspect Greening is the only player drafted right out of Upper Canada College.  He spent five years developing before joining the organisation and the payoff is more than could have been expected, as Greening will have a long career as a solid top-nine forward.  Two other NHL regulars came after his selection, with the best being the last (Patric Hornqvist at #230).

2006
Muckler’s last draft.  He broke his obsession with international tournament players and Russians, with all North American selections save Daugavins.  In Ottawa terms this is a much better draft with 2-4 regular NHLers coming out of it.  A few stats: there are 43/213 (20.2%) number of regular NHLers from the draft (this is based on 200+ games played and my judgement; you can judge for yourself here).  By round: 1st 19/30, 2nd 11/33, 3rd 5/30, 4th 2/30, 5th 0/30, 6th 3/30, 7th 3/30.  Players who played 200 or more games: 22 (16 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 7th), ; played 100-199 games: 15 (3 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 4th, 3 6th, 1 7th).  Teams that excelled: Toronto and Washington both picked four players, while Columbus and Boston picked three.  Calgary, Dallas, Nashville, New Jersey, and Tampa struck out.

1-28 Nick Foligno (LW, OHL) – NHL (Columbus); 351 NHL games – NHL regular (top-9 forward)
Arguably the second best pick of the draft from that point onward (behind Milan Lucic at #50), he also trumps a number of players taken before him (3 never played in the NHL, 5 have played fewer than 30 NHL games, he’s clearly better than James Sheppard (#9), Jiri Tlusty (#13), Trevor Lewis (#17), and the jury is still out on Michael Frolik (#10), Jonathan Bernier (#11) and Michael Grabner (14)).  Given that, he is a very successful selection despite his inability to firmly nail down a top-six role.
3-68 Eric Gryba (DR, USHL) – RFA (Binghamton) – marginal NHL prospect (5-6 D)
The big blueliner spent four full years in the NCAA before graduating and helping Binghamton to their first Calder Cup.  He was on the horizon for the NHL club coming into last season, but Mark Borowiecki has moved ahead of him on the depth chart.  There’s still NHL-potential for Gryba, but his ceiling isn’t particularly high.  Four regular NHLers were picked over the next 23 selections, with Brad Marchand (#71) the best.
3-91 Kaspars Daugavins (LW, Belarus; WJC)  – RFA (Ottawa); 66 NHL games – marginal NHL prospect (fourth-liner)
It has been a long road for the undersized forward to get to the NHL.  He spent three season in the CHL and then two more in Binghamton before becoming a regular.  His upside is limited and he could make more money in Europe, so I expect his future as a Sen will be shorter than longer.  Only two NHL regulars occur over the next 30 picks (James Reimer at #99 and Matt Beleskey at #112).
4-121 Pierre-Luc Lessard (DL, QMJHL) – CIS (Trois-Rivieres) bust
A high-scoring blueliner from the Q, he was never offered a contract and only had a cup of coffee as a pro (ECHL).  He’s a complete miss as a pick, but none of the next 30 selections have become regular NHLers.
5-151 Ryan Daniels (G, OHL) – CIS (Laurier) – bust
A rare goalie selection for the Sens, he is another player who was not offered a contract, but unlike Lessard didn’t even get that professional cup of coffee.  There are three regular NHLers over the next 30 picks, with Viktor Stalberg (#161) the most prominent.
6-181 Kevin Koopman (DR, KIJHL) – ACHA II (Brown) – bust
A prospect where the scouts did not do their homework, as Koopman retired to become a doctor before the Sens could think about offering him a contract.  Two regular NHLers were selected over the next 30 picks (with Derek Dorsett at #189 clearly the best).
7-211 Erik Condra (RW, NCAA) – NHL (Ottawa); 107 NHL games –  NHL regular (bottom-6 forward)
The third last pick of the draft, he finished up his college career, earned rookie of the year honours in Binghamton before becoming a solid attention to the regular lineup in the NHL.  Even though Condra has limited upside, to get a player this late is clearly a home run.

2007
Muckler was fired two weeks before the draft, so while this is nominally a Bryan Murray draft it’s basically following Muckler’s philosophy.  Not surprisingly, Murray traded away the team’s late round picks so that the next draft could fully follow his direction.  Not enough time has passed to truly assess how many hits and misses this draft had, but it’s a weaker draft for Ottawa (possibly worse than 2005).

1-29 Jim O’Brien (CR, NCAA; U-18) – RFA (Ottawa); 34 NHL games – marginal NHLer (fourth-liner)
After two mediocre years in the WHL and a terrible rookie season in the AHL, many thought O’Brien‘s days were numbered.  However, he turned his game around, won a Calder Cup, and did not look out of place with the Sens when called up this season.  The sample size is small, but it appears as though he can take a regular shift with the big boys, albeit in a supporting role.  Compared to the players taken before him, 6 have never played in the NHL (keeping in mind that Cherepanov tragically died), and 4 have played fewer games thus far.  Three regular NHLers were taken over the next 31 picks, with P. K. Subban (#43) the best of them.
2-60 Ruslan Bashkirov (LW, QMJHL) – VHL (Ryazan) – bust
The last Russian taken by Murray at the draft, Bashkirov is such a bust he can’t even play in the KHL.  This is the definition of a bad pick with Wayne Simmonds taken immediately after him (#61), granting that only one other (out of 30) is a definitive NHLer (Yannick Weber at #73).
3-90 Louie Caporusso (C/LW, OPJHL) – AHL (Binghamton) – potential AHLer
Despite a strong NCAA resume Caporusso struggled at the AHL level this season which is a bad sign for a college graduate.  He may have it in him to become a regular AHLer, but his NHL potential seems non-existent.  Currently there’s only 2 established NHLers taken over the next 30 picks (Alec Martinez at #95 and Matt Halischuk at #117), but 6 more seem likely to have similar status, making the pick look much worse.
4-120 Ben Blood (DL, USUS) – AHL (Binghamton) – potential marginal NHLer
There was a long wait for Blood, as he spent a year in the USHL and then four more at college before turning pro.  He has the potential to be a bruising bottom-pairing NHLer, but without significant pro experience it’s difficult to judge.  As Ottawa’s last pick in the draft he has to be compared to the rest of the selections (91 picks), where at least 6 players are either regular NHLers or on their way (the best being Jamie Benn at #129).  Given that neither Blood nor most of the rest of the players fates are set yet however, it’s hard to judge the pick.

Senators News: July 2nd

Mark Borowiecki was named the hardest working player at the Sens development camp for the second year in a row.

-The three-on-three finale at the Sens development camp ended with victory for team orange, consisting of Mika Zibanejad, Shane Prince, Corey Cowick, Jordan Fransoo, and Darren Kramer.

-Here are my reactions to Ottawa’s moves yesterday beginning with part one, part two, and a recap.  In terms of moves by other teams rather than truly crazy money what stood out was the term given to players (Jason Garrison for six years?  Sheldon Souray for three?), but on the other hand there were smart acquisitions (Jordan Tootoo was one of a few good signings by Detroit).  The crazy money awaits the Parise decision.

The Hockey News liked the Sens free agent acquisitions.  They assess Guillaume LatendresseIt was only a few years ago Guillaume Latendresse was an up-and-coming left winger who scored at least 25 goals in two straight seasons. Unfortunately for the 25-year-old, health woes – including a concussion that knocked him out of Minnesota’s final 50 games in 2011-12 – limited him to 27 games the past two years and drove down his free agent asking price. So it was no real surprise to see Latendresse sign a one-year, $1.25-million contract – a more than 50 percent drop in salary – with Ottawa. He’s a smart gamble at that price and could give them the scoring depth they’re looking for if he can stay in the lineup.”  And for Mike Lundin, “Expected to lose the services of UFA veteran Filip Kuba, the Senators made a smart, affordable blueline pickup when they signed Mike Lundin to a one-year, $1.15 million contract. The 27-year-old defenseman played just 17 games for Minnesota (after spending the previous four in Tampa Bay) and had sports hernia surgery in March, but he’s a steady-if-unspectacular performer who should fit in well and help Ottawa’s penalty kill.

Mark Parisi weighs in on the Sens moves yesterday, concluding “while the moves may be unpalatable by themselves, what he [Bryan Murray] has done is add players who will help the team transition through the season at a very reasonable cap hit without an appreciable loss of talent with the expectation that the true talent–drafted last year and developed internally–will be ready to step into those roles full-time in the following season. The only player not on a transitory deal, Marc Methot, is highly regarded as a strong defensive defenseman, and addresses a major need in the team’s defensive corps–most of the team’s best defensemen are better known for their offensive talents. Ottawa’s play in its own zone was a liability in 2011-12. Methot will change that.” And “It’s disappointing to think about the players the Senators lost yesterday–they were some fan favorites. It’s equally disappointing to realize the Senators did not get much better yesterday, until you recognize they did not get worse either. Sure, it would have been fun to see Murray go all-in in pursuit of a Stanley Cup, but is it ever practical to abandon a plan the second it starts to show success? Pluck the leaves from a young plant before it has time to take root and it dies.”  I agree that overall the Sens haven’t changed all that much and that improvement will have to come internally.

Jeremy Milks is unhappy with the moves writing “they got worse. Not terminably worse, but they lost a lot of character and toughness and only brought in one player – Methot – to balance out their losses in that area.”  Milks was most hurt by the loss of Carkner, not quite echoing the faction of the fanbase that felt Carkner and Konopka‘s threatening glower from the pressbox intimidated their opponents (for those wondering the record with Carkner in the lineup was 14-12-3 (27-19-7 without), minus Konopka 15-13-2 (26-18-8 with)).  It’s not entirely clear what it is Milks thinks is lost via Carkner other than “it doesn’t feel right” and “intangibles“.  The fact that those intangibles didn’t get the Sens into the playoffs last year, or land any of Konopka‘s previous teams in the post-season, or how neither player moved the Sens to the next round doesn’t factor into things.  Milks is happier with the acquisition of Methot who he see’s as a 4-5 defenseman.  He was unsurprised by the departure of Foligno, “if you’d been watching, you could have seen something like this coming a mile away. Foligno never truly found a role on the Senators and despite having good stats this past season, he was still shuffled around from line to line, often ending up on the fourth unit and being a spare part. It just never happened for Foligno and it wasn’t surprising to see him part of a package to strengthen their weakened back end.”  His comments about Lundin and Latendresse are echoed elsewhere (low risk sums it up).

Varada takes a look at yesterday’s moves and like most of the other bloggers was not shocked when Foligno was traded.  He see’s the trade going either way, “Methot played a career high average of about 17 minutes a night last season, having previously hovered around 16. His CORSI is all over the damn place – Relative CORSI is a terrible -16.3, but QOC was positive (even if it was only 0.920). So he was one of the worst players on a very poor team, basically. He’s also already 27, so he probably doesn’t have much room to grow. There are plenty of questions about how he was used by coach Scott Arniel, so I’ll reserve judgement. But to me, this move seems about what Murray can afford. If the Senators need to be a team close to the cap floor, then maybe he couldn’t afford a new deal for Foligno and the defenseman he needed. Still, I hate to see Foligno go this way. It’s like trading a likeable guy with some upside just as he’s entering his prime for new carpeting in the dressing room.”  I think Varada, like most of the bloggers (including me), doesn’t know what to expect from Methot because we haven’t seen him play much.  The only certainty is that he won’t put up points, but he’ll have better footspeed than Carkner and he’ll have more emotion than Matt Gilroy/Brian Lee.  In that sense, it’s a positive move, but he isn’t meant to replace Kuba.  That missing production will have to come internally.

-The only element that neither I nor any of the bloggers above specifically mentioned was Ottawa’s abysmal penalty kill.  Both Lundin and Methot are considered good players on the PK and that should help improve Ottawa’s special teams play.

Free Agency Day One Recap

-Reactions to the Sens’ moves have been filtering in from the disappointed (Crozier), mixed (Jeremy Milks and the The 6th Sens), yet to be determined (The Silver Seven), and contented (Stefan G:son).  Gone from the roster are Nick Foligno (T- Clb), Filip Kuba (FA – Flo), Matt Carkner (FA – NYI), Zenon Konopka (FA – Min), Matt Gilroy (FA – unsigned), and Jesse Winchester (FA – unsigned).  Only Foligno‘s departure was somewhat unexpected, so most of the reaction is based on who the Sens have brought in.  The four players who weren’t regulars only played 130 games combined last seasonFilip Kuba is on the wrong side of 30 and is unlikely to replicate his success from this year.  Nick Foligno is a tangible asset, but with so many forward prospects in the wings (Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Stone, Noesen, Puempel, etc) I think the clock was ticking on him regardless.  Given that, I don’t think much has been lost.

What about the players added?  Mike Lundin (FA – Min), Guillaume Latendresse (FA – Min), and Marc Methot (T – Clb)?  Ottawa has added between 5.515-6.265 million to their payroll (depending on Latendresse‘s bonuses), while losing 6.85.  Other than Methot there’s no term attached to the contracts, so the team hasn’t made a big commitment to them.  I find it difficult to assess the acquisitions given how little I’ve watched all three players.  Regardless, here are the bare bones (stats) and a few thoughts.

Guillaume Latendresse (RW/LW, 6’2, DOB 1987, 2-45/05)
2009-10 Mtl/Min 78-27-13-40 16pim +3
2010-11 Min 11-3-3-6 8pim +2
2011-12 Min 16-5-4-9 20pim +6

Jonathan Willis is a fan of the signing, saying “He’s young, big, often physical, and more importantly he’s a pretty good possession player who has consistently been a high-percentage goal-scorer over his NHL career (on 568 career shots, Latendresse is a 14.3% shooter; he’s never been below 12.0% in a single NHL season).”  Talking about himself, Latendresse said “It’s going to be a new, fresh start. If I look at top six (forwards), I think that could be a good spot for me. I’m not the coach, so maybe you can ask him, but I think I’m an offensive guy and I can bring that (scoring) for sure. I know what kind of player I am. I know what I can bring to a team. I think Ottawa is a really good fit for me. As far as my injuries go, I’m 100 per cent now. I know I can be the player I was when I first went to Minnesota. I can bring a lot to this team.”  I think management is going to expect Latendresse to be a top-six forward, but the question remains open if he can provide that.

Marc Methot (DL, 6’3, DOB 1985, 6-168/03)
2009-10 Clb 60-2-6-8 51pim -8
2010-11 Clb 74-0-15-15 58pim +2
2011-12 Clb 46-1-6-7 24pim -11

He’s played for Team Canada at the last two World Championships.  Bryan Murray said “We felt that getting a quality guy that everybody in our organization thought a lot of … He’s a big guy, he’s a local guy, he plays really good defence and he’s very happy to get on board with us. There’s a price to be paid when you have to do something like that.”  Bruce Garrioch (via the link) says the Sens tried to get Methot last year, but couldn’t get the deal done.  The general sentiment is that he’s a solid player, but not flashy.  If he can fill top-four minutes then I think the deal to get him is worth it.

Mike Lundin (DL, 6’2, DOB 1984, 4-102/04)
2009-10 TB 49-3-10-13 18pim -4
2010-11 TB 69-1-11-12 12pim -3
2011-12 Min 17-0-2-2 4pim -1

He played for the US World Championship team in 2010 and was one of the NHL’s “young stars” in 2008.  Describing himself, Lundin said “I’m more of a defensive specialist, I’m not real flashy. I’m thrilled, it wasn’t one of the greatest year for me last year with injuries and everything. I’m excited to come and play for a Canadian team, with the potential they have following last season and only looking to get better.”  He’s a low risk acquisition and seems capable of filling a hole in the bottom pairing.

Andre Benoit was signed after a year in the KHL (53-5-12-17) and needs no introduction given his previous stint in 10-11 (73-11-44-55) with the organisation.  He’s a great acquisition for Binghamton.