Reviewing the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

[No one has been waiting for an update to this data, but I wanted to incorporate ISS’ into the analysis.  While the scouting organisation does not rank skaters and goalies together, that information is presented in a way that I can be reasonably incorporate it.  In essence, all I’ve done is include the number of goalies per round within the framework and adjusted the skaters accordingly–this gives ISS 220 kicks at the can, but that’s a minor statistical advantage.]

Going into this year’s draft the consensus was that beyond the top-10 there was little difference between the next 40 or so players and that after that, the draft would be something of a crapshoot (each team having its own ideas on the calibre of particular players).  Without a doubt, the conventional wisdom was spot on.  Collective predictions held up fairly well over the first two rounds, but after the third round prognostication crashed and burned.

The Comparison:

First Two Rounds (all sources)
Myself – 47/61
TSN – 43/61
FC – 40/61
HP – 38/61
RLR – 36/61
THN/ISS – 33/61

First Three Rounds (minus TSN because Bob McKenzie’s list is only the top-60)
Myself – 56/90
FC – 47/90
HP – 46/90
RLR – 45/90
ISS – 41/90
THN – 38/90

All Rounds (this excludes TSN and THN)
Myself – 68/210 (32%)
RLR – 58/210 (27%)
FC – 57/210 (27%)
ISS – 56/220 (25%)
HP – 49/210 (23%)

Listed players taken (not necessarily in order, but those listed to be selected in the draft)
Myself – 147/210 (70%)
ISS – 132/220 (60%)
HP – 100/210 (47%)
RLR – 93/210 (44%)
FC – 93/210 (44%)
Overage players selected: 29
Unranked players taken: 10 [Alexander Ruutu (2-51), Tom Nilsson (4-100), Emil Molin (4-105), Yaroslav Kosov (5-124), Nick Seeler (5-131), Sam Jardine (6-169), Mitchell Theoret (7-185), Jordan Fransoo (7-186), Anton Forsberg (7-188), and Michael Schumacher (7-200)]

The numbers are well below last year (with 72% accuracy and 87% of those listed), but still ahead of the sources used.  One trend I noticed with selections in terms of source-assessments: European skaters were both underrated and the least accurately rated.  The most surprising player not drafted was Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall (Myles Bell had better overall rankings, but with his legal troubles it’s not a surprise that he was not selected).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)


Looking Back on Round One of the 2011 NHL Draft

The first round is in the books and it featured a barrage of trades along with the 30 players selected.  Here I’ll take a quick look to see how I (and my sources) did in predicting tonight’s results.

Precise predictions (player X going at #X) are almost impossible.  Last year Bob McKenzie of TSN lead the way with 6/30 (I was one behind him).  This year has produced very similar results:

4/30 – myself, TSN (Bob McKenzie), and FC (Future Considerations)
3/30 – RLR (Red Line Report) and HP (Hockey Prospect)
2/30 – ISS (International Scouting Service)
1/30 – THN (The Hockey News)

The more important thing to look at is how many players selected to be drafted in the first round actually were.  Last year I edged out TSN by one (26/30), but this year there’s a three-way tie for accuracy:

25/30 – myself, TSN, and FC
24/30 – RLR
23/30 – HP
22/30 – ISS
21/30 – THN

Of the truly off-the-board selections, no one had Stefan Noesen (21st, Ottawa) or Phillip Danault (26th, Chicago) as potential first rounders.  Rickard Rakell (30th, Anaheim), and Stuart Percy (25th, Toronto) were only selected by one source as first round selections while Conner Murphy (20th, Phoenix) appeared in only two.

The highest ranked players who were not selected are 5’6 Rocco Grimaldi, Brandon Saad (whose production tailed off in the second half), Ty Rattie, and Tomas Jurco.

The first round is the easiest to predict (although our friends at THN continue to struggle), so tomorrow the test will be tougher.  Last year I managed 126/180 (70%) and I hope to improve on that this time around.