Senators News: May 30th

Bruce Garrioch continues to pump out trade rumours by giving us his top-five Sens likely to be traded:
1. Nick Foligno(RFA), “At times, Foligno has left the Senators wanting more and that’s the message Murray delivered during their post-season meeting: If Foligno is going to be back, the team wants him to a be consistent, top two-line [top-line] player. If Murray decides to deal Foligno, there will be plenty of interest. Teams love his potential.”  All Ottawa would get back for Foligno is another player with the same issues–unrealised potential–so I don’t see him moving unless he was signed and part of a package deal.
2. Sergei Gonchar, “He won’t be shopped, but you can be assured Murray will listen to offers. The Senators were pleased with the way Gonchar finished last season. He was a strong, consistent performer.”  If anyone can figure out how this adds up to being moved they are welcome to explain it to me.
3. Robin Lehner, “The club wasn’t thrilled with the way 20-year-old Lehner developed last season in Binghamton. His work ethic was called into question, but he’s showing signs of maturity and that’s a positive for his career.”  I’m not sure if Garrioch means the organisation called his work ethic into question or not, since only the former is relevant.  Regardless, why give up on a young player when all you would get back is another young player with question marks?  It makes no sense, particularly given the great unknown that is Ben Bishop as an NHL-regular.
4. Zack Smith, “If he’s moved, Smith is simply a victim of depth at centre.”  I get the feeling Garrioch was pulling names out of a hat–or else trying to rationalise how to make room for his Chris Kelly rumours.
5. Bobby Butler, “The Senators will likely try to get something done after Butler scored six goals in 56 games this season, but it would be a tough sell for any team to give him a fresh start with that contract attached.”  The only realistic name on the list (as echoed by Lyle Richardson), I don’t think Butler will be as hard to move as Garrioch thinks, given that Matt Gilroy has already been traded twice based on his college career rather than his NHL achievements.

DaveYoung digs into Nick Foligno‘s numbers to assess if he’s a top-six talent.  He points out that 4 of Foligno‘s 15 goals were of the empty-net variety and that he lead the team in secondary assists ratio.  Dave concludes, “So even in a career year for Nick Foligno, his numbers were skewed by secondary assists and empty net goals. If he doesn’t get those empty netters, and only scores 11 goals on the season, is that what we are looking for from a top-6 player? I don’t think so.”  I also think Foligno is better suited to third-line duty.

Varada suggests fans overvalue their prospects (true) and that a proven commodity like Rick Nash is worth the salary and flatlined production.  In essence, he suggests the ridiculous package Columbus is looking for is worth it.  I understand Varada’s point, but there are three things to keep in mind here: 1) organisations that constantly trade away their prospects (like Columbus) don’t succeed long term or (usually) at all in the post-lockout era, 2) the numbers Varada sites (“even if Nash “only” scores you 25-30 goals for the next few years and never breaks that 70 point barrier again“) are Milan Michalek numbers–I’m not suggesting they are the same player, but if that’s the production you are going to get for 7.8 million you really are better off waiting and hoping for your prospects to pan out, finally 3) there’s no chance Nash will accept a trade to Ottawa.

-Here’s my look at Future Considersations 2012 NHL Draft Guide.

-Radio ratings are largely meaningless (link), but for local sports fans The Team 1200 sits 13th among Ottawa stations with their numbers declining.  A number of personalities were fired in February (Jim Jerome, Phil Melanson, and Mike Sutherland), and while I take no pleasure in anyone losing their jobs both Jerome and Melanson were understandably first in line to be let go.  I haven’t listened to the station regularly in months, largely because most of the personalities are all cut from the same cloth.  While I love hockey talk, debate doesn’t work well when both parties essentially agree (Jason York and Steve Lloyd spring to mind).

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Future Considerations 2012 NHL Draft Guide

Future Considerations 2012 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication:

1). RW Nail Yakupov, Sarnia, OHL, 5-10.5, 189

2). C Alex Galchenyuk, Sarnia, OHL, 6-1, 185

3). D Ryan Murray, Everett, WHL, 6-0.5, 200

4). C Mikhail Grigorenko, Quebec, QMJHL, 6-3, 200

5). LW Filip Forsberg, Leksand, Swe., 6-2, 180

6). D Jacob Trouba, USNTDP U18, USHL, 6-2, 195

7). D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton, WHL, 6-4, 205

8). RW Teuvo Teravainen, Jokerit Jr., Fin Jr., 5-11, 165

9). D Morgan Rielly, Moose Jaw, WHL, 5-11.5, 190

10). D Mathew Dumba, Red Deer, WHL, 5-11.5, 180

11). D Cody Ceci, Ottawa, OHL, 6-2.5, 210

12). RW Sebastian Collberg, Frolunda Jr., Swe Jr., 5-11, 175

13). C Radek Faksa, Kitchener, OHL, 6-3, 200

14). D Derrick Pouliot, Portland, WHL, 5-11, 185

15). D Hampus Lindholm, Rogle Jr., Swe Jr. 6-2, 195

16). RW Colton Sissons, Kelowna, WHL, 6-1, 190

17). LW Nicolas Kerdiles, USNTDP U18, USHL, 6-1.5, 200

18). C Brendan Gaunce, Belleville, OHL, 6-2, 215

19). C Zemgus Girgensons, Dubuque, USHL, 6-1.5, 200

20). C Tomas Hertl, Slavia Praha, Czech Rep, 6-2, 195

21). G Andrei Vasilevski, Ufa, MHL, 6’-3.5”, 205

22). LW Pontus Aberg, Djurgarden, SEL., 5-11, 195

23). D Slater Koekkoek, Peterborough, OHL, 6-2, 185

24). D Ludvig Bystrom, Modo Jr., Swe Jr., 6-1, 205

25). G Oscar Dansk, Brynas Jr., Swe Jr., 6-2.5, 185

26). D Matt Finn, Guelph, OHL, 6-0, 195

27). D Olli Maatta, London, OHL, 6-1.5, 190

28). D Dalton Thrower, Saskatoon, WHL, 5-11.5, 190

29). G Malcolm Subban, Belleville, OHL, 6-1, 188

30). RW Tom Wilson, Plymouth, OHL, 6-4, 205

In FC’s mock draft they have Ottawa selecting Hampus Lindholm in the first round, saying “A nice cupboard full of forward talent from the past three drafts means the semi-rebuild will be a quick one. They need to focus now on acquiring some impact defensemen with their first rounder and possibly their second rounder in this draft. They go back to Sweden where they have experienced success and grab Lindholm with this pick.”  They list Ottawa’s needs as “A couple puck moving defensemen and goaltender depth.”  I agree wholeheartedly about the organisational need, although I expect the Sens will take the best player available.

Unlike the ISS guide there’s no examination of team depth, but they include goaltenders in their general listings (unlike ISS or Central Scouting) and for an inexpensive product Future Considerations is a solid purchase.  In terms of predictive success, last year FC was at the bottom of publications in terms of the percentage of listed players selected (44%, tied with Red Line Report), but was tied for first (again with RLR) for the most specific selections (player X at position X).