Looking Back at Round One of the 2012 NHL Draft

The first round is in the books and it featured a barrage of trades along with the 30 players selected.  Here I’ll take a quick look to see how I (and my sources) did in predicting tonight’s results.  The first round is the easiest one to pick, but precise predictions (player X going at #X) are almost impossible.  In the previous two drafts the best ratio has been Bob McKenzie in 2010 (6/30, I was one behind him that year and tied for first with him in 2011, going a measly 4/30).  This year has produced lower results overall (here I’m considering TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospects), ISS (International Scouting Service), THN (The Hockey News), McK (McKeen’s):
TSN 5/30
HP/FC/ISS/McK 2/30
RLR/Eye on the Sens 1/30

I didn’t include Corey Pronman’s picks from Hockey Prospectus as part of my rankings, but he wound up going 3/30.

The more important thing to look at is how many players selected to be drafted in the first round actually were.  Last year I was tied with TSN for the most selections (25/30), while in 2010 I edged him out by one (26/30).  This year Bob was once again the champ and I dropped down in the pack:
TSN 27/30
McK 26/30
RLR 25/30
Eye on the Sens/THN 24/30
ISS/FC/HP 22/30
Corey Pronman 20/30

There were no truly off-the-board selections in the sense that all players picked were considered first-rounders by at least one source. Tanner Pearson was the lowest ranked player taken, but he was not the only player with only one first-round pick (Jordan Schmaltz being the other).  Henrik Samuelsson had the second least first-round selections with two.

The highest ranked players who were not selected were Matthew Finn (considered a first-rounder by everyone), Sebastien Collberg (only a second-rounder to HP), and Pontus Aberg (only a second-rounder to TSN).  No other players are near their uniformity of ranking.

Here’s the recap of the first round (correct publications in brackets):
1. Edmonton, Nail Yakupov (everyone except HP)
2. Columbus, Ryan Murray (TSN)
3. Montreal, Alex Galchenyuk (n/a)
4. New York Islanders, Griffin Reinhart (HP, TSN)
5. Toronto, Morgan Rielly (n/a)
6. Anaheim, Hampus Lindholm (n/a)
7. Minnesota, Matt Dumba (n/a)
8. Pittsburgh (from Carolina), Derrick Pouliot (n/a)
9. Winnipeg, Jacob Trouba (THN, TSN)
10. Tampa Bay, Slater Koekkoek (n/a)
11. Washington, Filip Forsberg (n/a)
12. Buffalo, Mikhail Grigorenko (TSN, HP)
13. Dallas, Radek Faksa (FC)
14. Buffalo (from Calgary), Zemgus Girgensons (n/a)
15. Ottawa, Cody Ceci (n/a)
16. Washington, Tom Wilson (n/a)
17. San Jose, Thomas Hertl (n/a)
18. Chicago, Teuvo Teravainen (n/a)
19. Tampa Bay, Andrei Vasilevski (n/a)
20. Philadelphia, Scott Laughton (n/a)
21. Calgary (from Buffalo), Mark Jankowski (n/a)
22. Pittsburgh, Olli Maatta (n/a)
23. Florida, Mike Matheson (n/a)
24. Boston, Malcolm Subban (McK)
25. St. Louis, Jordan Schmaltz (n/a)
26. Vancouver, Brendan Gaunce (n/a)
27. Phoenix, Henrik Samuelsson (ISS)
28. New York Rangers, Brady Skjei (n/a)
29. New Jersey, Stefan Matteau (n/a)
30. Los Angeles, Tanner Pearson (n/a)

I’ll have a full recap of the draft tomorrow.

June 22, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Senators News: June 22nd

-This marks the one-year anniversary for Eye on the Sens.  Thanks to all my readers and twitter followers.  I also want to thank Black Aces‘ Jeremy Milks and Jared Crozier at Senshot for including a link to the site, Peter Raaymakers and Amelia L for occasional mentions on The Silver Seven, Owen Bourns who invited me to write for Sens Nation, the moderators at HFboards who let me post links there for awhile, and various other bloggers who have commented here over the past twelve months (Lyle Richardson from Spector’s Hockey, Ian Altenbaugh at Hockey’s Future, and worsteverything at Welcome to Your Karlsson Years).

-As widely reported, Erik Karlsson won the Norris trophy and Daniel Alfredsson won the King Clancy award.  As I’ve said before I don’t really care about the awards themselves, but I’m happy for the two Swedes nonetheless.

-It’s been re-confirmed that the Sens have qualified all their RFA’s except Craig Schira (so including Nikita Filatov despite his KHL contract); this was reported weeks ago, but apparently rumours about Filatov have been floating around since.

–Tim Murray talked about how he expects the three top blueline prospects (Mark Borowiecki, Eric Gryba, and Patrick Wiercioch) to step up next season, “There’s always somebody coming behind you. It’s a cruel game. If your turn comes and you’re not ready for it, somebody else is taking your spot. They’re going to get a turn here shortly and they better grasp it.”  Murray also talked about the draft saying “We’re not convinced this is a great draft. The teams that have 11 or 12 picks say it’s a great draft and if we thought it was a great draft, it wouldn’t be hard to get more picks. We probably aren’t going to do that. I’ve been doing this for 20 years and in my estimation, it’s an average draft. There are some teams that think it’s a decent draft and there are other teams that don’t. So you have potential partners there in the fact that some teams will want picks and some teams will be happy to give up picks (and say) why don’t we wait until next year, when we like that draft a little better. So yeah, I think there could be a little moving and shaking tomorrow.”

–Pierre Dorion just keeps talking about the draft.  There’s not much new, but “You’re right, there’s not the ‘wow’ factor this year but I still feel personally, and I know my group of scouts feel the same way, come Saturday night when we’ve made seven selections, I think we’ll be very happy with the product that we’ve come away with.”  He also talked a little about Daniel Altshuller and Francois Brassard who came to Ottawa, “both good goalies. I would say Daniel is a bit bigger physically. Francois is skinnier. Daniel might be a bit better technically. Francois might be a bit quicker. But they’re both good guys and good goalies and will have a chance to have good NHL careers down the road.”

-Here are my draft predictions for Ottawa.  Speaking of the draft, Brian Costello at THN has borrowed the basic part of my draft analysis approach to produce a top-30 list (I’m sure the cheque is in the mail), although he doesn’t explain exactly how he’s blended the five lists he’s using (THN’s, Bob McKenzie’s, ISS, McKeens, and Future Considerations; or so he implies those are the sources, but it’s not explicitly stated) and come up with this (differences with my list are in brackets):
1 Nail Yakupov, RW
2 Filip Forsberg, RW
3 Ryan Murray, D
4 Alex Galchenyuk, C
5 Mikhail Grigorenko, C (7)
6 Griffin Reinhart, D (5)
7 Matt Dumba, D (6)
8 Morgan Rielly, D
9 Jacob Trouba, D (10)
10 Teuvo Teravainen, LW (9)
11 Cody Ceci, D
12 Radek Faksa, C
13 Hampus Lindholm, D (16)
14 Sebastian Collberg, RW (19)
15 Olli Maatta, D (14)
16 Derrick Pouliot, D (13)
17 Brendan Gaunce, C
18 Zemgus Girgensons, C (15)
19 Matthew Finn, D (20)
20 Slater Koekkkoek, D (18)
21 Thomas Wilson, RW
22 Andrei Vasilevski, G (24)
23 Tomas Hertl, C
24 Pontus Aberg, LW (22)
25 Brady Skjei, D
26 Colton Sissons, RW (27)
27 Scott Laughton, C (26)
28 Malcolm Subban, G (30)
29 Nicolas Kerdiles, LW (35)
30 Stefan Matteau, LW (32)

June 22, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Ottawa 2012 Draft Predictions

Here follows predictions for Ottawa’s selections over the next two days.  Before getting into the specifics it’s worth looking at draft trends under Bryan Murray.  There’s not much to be drawn from the 2007 draft class given when Murray was hired, so I’ve left it out, but the four drafts since then are indicative.  First, a brief look at the picks and where they are now:

2008
1-15 Erik Karlsson (DR, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC) – NHL
2-42 Patrick Wiercioch (DL, USHL, Omaha) – AHL
3-79 Zack Smith (C/LW, WHL, Swift Current) – NHL
4-109 Andre Petersson (RW/LW, SuperElit, HV71; WJC) – AHL
4-119 Derek Grant (C/LW, BCHL, Langley) – AHL
5-139 Mark Borowiecki (DL, CJHL, Smith Falls) – AHL
7-199 Emil Sandin (RW/LW, SuperElit, Brynas) – FA (unsigned)
2009
1-9 Jared Cowen (DL, WHL, Spokane; WHC-17) – NHL
2-39 Jakob Silfverberg (C/W, SuperElit, Brynas; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
2-46 Robin Lehner (G, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC-18) – AHL
4-100 Chris Wideman (DR, NCAA, Miami) – AHL
5-130 Mike Hoffman (C/LW, QMJHL, Drummondville) – AHL
5-146 Jeff Costello (LW, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
6-160 Corey Cowick (LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – AHL
7-190 Brad Peltz (LW, USHS, Avon Old Farms) – NCAA
7-191 Michael Sdao (DL, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA
2010
3-76 Jakub Culek (C/LW, QMJHL, Rimouski; WJC-18) – AHL
4-106 Marcus Sorensen (RW, SuperElit, Sodertalje) – FA (unsigned)
6-178 Mark Stone (RW, WHL, Brandon) – AHL/NHL
7-196 Bryce Aneloski (DR, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
2011
1-6 Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, SEL, Djurgardens; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
1-21 Stefan Noesen (C/RW, OHL, Plymouth) – OHL
1-24 Matt Puempel (LW, OHL, Peterborough) – OHL
2-61 Shane Prince (C/LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – OHL/AHL
4-96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, QMJHL, Gatineau) – QMJHL/AHL
5-126 Fredrik Claesson (DL, SEL, Djurgardens, WJC-18) – AHL
6-156 Darren Kramer (C/LW, WHL, Spokane) – AHL
6-171 Max McCormick (LW, USHL, Sioux City) – NCAA
7-186 Jordan Fransoo (DR, WHL, Brandon) – WHL
7-204 Ryan Dzingel (C/LW, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA

That’s a total of 30 players, with 20 forwards, 9 defencemen, and 1 goaltender; 14 from the Canadian junior systems, 8 from the various US systems, and 8 from Sweden.  As for trends, 8 teams have had two players selected by the Senators (Frolunda, Brynas, Djurgardens, Ottawa 67s, Brandon, Spokane, Lincoln and Cedar Rapids).  In at least a few cases it seems that scouting one player has lead to the selection of another (Brandon Fransoo via Mark Stone and Bryce Aneloski via Jeff Costello—Chris Wideman also played for Cedar Rapids).  The only trend among the Swedes is that most had international experience prior to being drafted and none are from the northern club teams.  Among the USHL selections (6), most have been from the West Division (Lincoln, Omaha, and Sioux City).  Of the Canadian selections 4 players have been from local teams (Mark Borowiecki, Corey Cowick, Shane Prince, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau), but are otherwise fairly spread out.  Thus far the only busts have been undersized Swedes (Emil Sandin and Marcus Sorensen).  I have to wonder if the Swedish flavour will be diminished by the absence of former scout Anders Forsberg.  The other trend is that the Sens try to make trades at the draft (be it the deal that landed Erik Karlsson in 2008, the trade to pick Michael Sdao in 2009, moving the first-rounder to get David Rundblad in 2010, or the deal that landed them Matt Puempel in 2011).

As far as what this means for this year’s draft we’ll have to wait and see, but there’s no reason to doubt that the team will make drafting blueliners and a goaltender a priority.  Ottawa has the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  I think the odds are good that the Sens will try to trade up, likely sacrificing their third-round selections in the hopes of landing a goaltender (I do not believe they will use their first-round pick on a goalie).  However, if they keep all their picks here’s my guess at the players they will select:
1-15 Hampus Lindholm (DL 6’2 SuperElit Rogle) – the Swedish blueliner has been a popular selection in mock drafts for the Sens and there’s little reason to doubt he’s part of their discussions; other players to consider are Olli Maatta (DL 6’1 OHL London) or Derrick Pouliot (DL 6’0 WHL Portland)
3-76 Calle Andersson (DR 6’2 SuperElit Malmo) – a right-handed Swedish blueliner; could also see James Melindy (DR 6’3 QMJHL Moncton), Dylan Blujus (DR 6’3 OHL Brampton), or scoring winger Robbie Baillargeon (RW 6’0 USHL Indiana)
3-82 Esa Lindell (DL 6’2 Fin Jr Jokerit) – Finnish blueliner coming off a solid WJC-18; it could also be any of the players mentioned above or power forward Mitchell Moroz (LW 6’2 WHL Edmonton)
4-106 Erik Karlsson (LW 5’11 SuperElit Frolunda) – Swedish winger; it could also be Moroz (above) or scoring winger Kevin Roy (LW 5’10 USHL Lincoln)
5-136 Daniel Altshuller (G 6’2 OHL Oshawa) – the Sens brought him to Ottawa; could also be Roy (above)
6-166 Carter Rigby (LW 6’0 WHL Kelowna) – power forward; could also be Francois Brassard (G 6’0 QMJHL Quebec), another goalie brought to Ottawa
7-196 Mike McKee (DL 6’4 USHL Lincoln) – rugged blueliner; it could also be Zane Jones (LW 6’0 WHL Victoria) a rugged winger

So, if my analysis and predictions for the draft are 100% correct in terms of who is available when (unlikely), the list looks like this:
Hampus Lindholm (D) – a Swede and a blueliner
James Melindy (D) – would fill the QMJHL quota (one player each of the last three drafts)
Mitchell Moroz – the Sens like power forwards
Erik Karlsson – undersized Swedish forward with skill (and would be another player picked from Frolunda)
Daniel Altshuller (G) – they’ve said repeatedly they will pick a goalie
Carter Rigby – yet another power forward
Mike McKee (D) – tough blueliner in the mould of Michael Sdao (and would be another player from Cedar Rapids)

June 22, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Senators News: June 20th

-As expected Erik Karlsson re-signed with Ottawa yesterday.  It’s a seven year contract with a cap hit of 6.5, which is reasonable for both sides.

–Pierre Dorion was interviewed and had a lot to say.  When asked about Mika Zibanejad he said, “I think we’re okay with his development. I think when we’re realistic about things, I always tell people that it’s not a 100-metre race when you’re developing prospects or putting prospects into your lineup. I think it’s a marathon. Only certain special players can step in at 18 years old and have an impact. We knew with Mika, he played 10 games – he was good for us some games and some games he struggled. We just felt for his development, the best thing would be to go back home. He had a good World Junior. (He) scored the winning goal for Sweden for them to win the gold medal which was something that they hadn’t done in a while. And right now, he’s coming over for our development camp next week. I think he had a much better second half this year for his team and I think we’re going to see him try and play for us next year. Whether he plays or not, whether he goes to the American (Hockey) League, which is an option, is something we’ll look at but I think he’s a prospect that down the road, will contribute again to our team’s success.”  For some reasons Nichols (who transcribed the interview) believes these comments mean he might be traded.  I don’t see it.  Dorion gave the usual speech on Mark Stone, with the most significant part being “I see Mark as a big part of our future.”  He also made a point of bringing up Mark Borowiecki and Zack Smith as players who exceeding expectations based on where they were drafted.  There was nothing new in his comments on Jakob Silfverberg (echoing what’s been said before).  When asked about Ottawa’s draft strategy he said, “We have mentioned to our media and we have mentioned to our people that there are fourteen guys that we like so if Calgary seems to like the same fourteen as us, they’re in a good position. We feel that we’re going to get one of those fourteen guys that we really like. I think there is a certain drop off in the draft. As far as our needs, I know it’s a cliché and our fans don’t really like to hear it, our media don’t really like to hear it, but we’re just going to take the best player available. I know we took three forwards in the first round and our first five picks last year were forwards but you need to fill twelve spots or thirteen spots for your NHL team. Some of our forwards quite a bit older and on defence, we obviously we don’t have the depth in younger prospects. We’d like to add a defenceman but if we feel that a forward is the best possible player, we’d do that. And it could be a goalie also. We have three goalies in our organization and we feel that we have one of the best goalies outside the NHL in Robin Lehner. He won a Calder Cup last year and was the MVP of the Calder Cup at 20 years old, so it might not be a position but he’s the youngest goalie in our organization at 21 years old, so we might feel the need to draft one at a certain point in time in this draft.”  The latter comment should help put to bed Darren Dreger’s rumour that Lehner could be traded.  It seems absurd to give up on a young goalie like that (conversely, I could see the Sens shopping Ben Bishop if the price is high enough).

–Bryan Murray told Renaud P. Lavoie that the Sens are out of the Rich Nash sweepstakes.  I don’t think they were ever really in them, but we can hope that puts an end to the space wasted on speculating about it.

–worsteverything has a meandering article that makes two points (one I agree with, one I don’t): the Sens are better off waiting for their forward prospects to develop than spending on the free agent market.  I agree with him and the comments from the organisation suggests they agree too.  His other suggestion is keeping Matt Carkner (the man with no knees) on the roster, which seems pointless in doing [Correction: worsteverything has reminded me that he thinks the organisation will re-sign them, not offering his opinion on if they should or shouldn’t].

-The NHL has banned players using their hands to win faceoffs, which (as Nichols points out in the above link) takes one of Zenon Konopka‘s two bullets out of his gun.  Staged fighting remains, which is still good enough for Don Brennan.

June 20, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Senators News: June 19th

-My draft preview was launched a little prematurely earlier this morning (by which I mean I accidentally hit “publish” half way through), but other than a few tweaks it is now essentially done and for those interested in where the collective scouting body believes various players will land you can check it out.

–Bruce Garrioch unloads a big article on the draft where he quotes a couple of people who dislike the talent pool in this year’s draft, “It’s (bleeping) terrible. This year’s draft has to be the worst draft in 12 years. There’s all kinds of factors involved here. No. 1 is the Russian factor because they’ve got lots of options with the Kontinental Hockey League offering big money. No. 2 is the lack of depth factor because there isn’t much here. No. 3, this draft is unpredictable. I get the sense that you might see teams go off the board after No. 10. There is a huge dropoff and that’s when teams might decide that they want to take a chance on another player. Not saying it will happen, but it certainly could. There are just a lot of warts on a lot of the players. There’s just not as many slam-dunk guarantees as there normally are right from the top. If you take some of these guys, you wonder what you’re going to get out of them. Some of these guys could be superstars, but there are nights when they’re completely invisible. There’s a lot of guessing going on — and more than there normally is. Any time you’re going in a draft, it’s always a guessing game because you’re dealing with kids, but you really have to roll the dice in this one here.”  For those with the patience to read the entire article towards the bottom you discover that the sun is still shining for other unnamed sources, “It’s not as deep as some previous drafts, but I really do believe that if you do your homework and follow your scouting model that you increase the probability of having a successful draft. The players are there. You’ve got to find them. You’ve got to nurture them. You’ve just got to do your job. I’d say after No. 10 or No. 11, it’s not great. It doesn’t go off the cliff. Depending on your needs, it seems to me there are going to be players there for teams. Sure, not all these players have the high probability to play like many did in other years, but there are still players who are going to be taken after No. 10 or No. 11 that are going to play. You’ve just got to make sure that you go find those guys.”  Garrioch then tries to say that not everyone is sold on Nail Yakupov…accept virtually every reputable scouting agency has him as their #1 overall pick.  That doesn’t mean he’s going to be the first overall selection, but it’s generally accepted that he’s the best talent in the draft.  What’s important for Garrioch is that Yakupov is Russian.  For those of you who missed it, Garrioch wants to make sure you know Russians can’t be relied on or trusted (guys like Slava Voynov don’t win the Cup).  All you can really take from the gigantic article is that the draft is seen as being not particularly strong.  If that perception is widely held than expect a lot of trades as teams dump picks to make moves.

–Sportsnet‘s Ottawa draft preview is posted and they believe the Sens need to add defenseman.  Their mock draft has Ottawa selecting Olli Maatta, which if correct would be the first Finn the Sens have taken since 2005’s bust Janne Kolehmainen.  Ian Mendes suggests that along with blueliners we should expect the Sens to pick a goalie as well.  All in all, there’s no much new.

–Stefan Noesen has been invited to take part in USA Hockey’s summer evaluation camp in advance of the 2013 IIHF world junior championship.

-I’ve deliberately ignored the speculation about Rick Nash coming to Ottawa because I don’t think he has any interest in coming here (the Sens aren’t mentioned in the list of teams who have talked to Columbus).  The only interesting thing to come out of the speculation is the following from TSN’s Darren Dreger, “Bryan Murray is in a position to wheel and deal and he will go to the goal and has made it be known that Robin Lehner and Ben Bishop are available. Now what’s the asking price? That’s hard to say. He paid a second round draft pick for Ben Bishop and (Murray’s) not giving him up for less than that, so Ottawa could be a player this week.”  I agree with Nichols that this makes little sense and I believe there’s no chance that Lehner will be moved.  Perhaps the return to Nashville for Anders Lindback has Murray excited (as Varada discusses).

June 19, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Analysis and Predictions for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft

With the advent of the NHL salary cap after the 2004-05 lockout, it became paramount for all organisations to invest in their scouting operations and draft well.  It has become harder for teams to buy their way out of trouble or plug holes with expensive free agent talent.  Draft prediction has become a cottage industry for many hockey fans, but the wide variety of sources are not created equal and few of those who provide their opinions will reflect on their subsequent accuracy.  It’s my purpose here to collate the best sources and provide insight into who will be selected in this year’s upcoming NHL entry draft.

This is my third year predicting the draft (beginning with the now defunct Hockey Herald back in 2010).  That year I picked 72% of the entire class (well ahead of other sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (still well ahead of my nearest source, which was ISS).  What follows is a continuation of the same analysis.

My method is to take the sum of reliable sources and produce an aggregate number (so player X is ranked 15, 24, and 32, these numbers are averaged).  This gives me a broad overview of where players will be slotted.  I then engage in further comparative analysis—for instance, if player X has a higher aggregate score, but player Y has the higher median score, the latter is given the higher position.  Precise predictions (player X at pick #29) are much more difficult (I was at 32% last year, which topped my sources).  The first round remains the easiest to predict in terms of who will be picked, if not where.

Determining my Sources of Data

While a wide variety of media and bloggers produce draft predictions (especially for the first round), not all are created equal.  My preference is the scouting community itself and those sources that they rely on.  For that purpose, The International Scouting Service (ISS), Kyle Woodlief’s Red Line Report (RLR), and Central Scouting (CS) are particularly weighty.  Central Scouting is the NHL’s scouting service, while ISS and RLR are independent scouting services used extensively within the NHL.  I also give TSN’s Bob McKenzie predictions a lot of weight, as his rankings prove an excellent barometer for draft results.

Rounding out my sources this year are The Hockey News (THN),  Future Considerations (FC), Hockey Prospects (HP), and McKeen’s (McK).  They provide extensive predictions and are put together by knowledgeable hockey people.

It has to be noted that both ISS and CS have inherent comparative problems when it comes to comparison because Central Scouting does not create a master list—players are divided into North American and European skaters, as well as being separated into goalie and skater categories.  ISS separates their goaltenders into a separate ranking (these at least can be loosely incorporated by taking the average number of the round they are slotted into).  Because of these drawbacks I load up with the additional data provided by other sources.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there is a difference between assessing who the best player is versus who a team will draft.  Some publications give weight to the latter, while other sources do not.  My purpose here is to slot players where they will be picked rather than assessing who is the best.

Notes

Acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), CS (Central Scouting), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospect), TSN (The Sports Network), THN (The Hockey News), FC (Future Considerations), and McKeen’s (McK).

Ranking depth: CS 378 (212 skaters and 35 goalies in North America along with 120 skaters and 11 goalies in Europe), RLR 312, ISS 220 (200 skaters and 20 goaltenders), HP 210, FC 210, McK 120, THN 100, and TSN’s Bob McKenzie 60.

The analysis itself: the aggregate is the total score of the player divided by the number of sources ranking that player (this score does not include the CS ranking given the issues detailed above).  When I say a player beats another “head-to-head” or on aggregate I mean that he has a better median score.

A final comment: the most obvious struggle for accurate scouting assessment remains Europeans, who are underrepresented in lists (barely 16% this year) for the obvious reason that it’s more expensive to cover Europe and the great variety of leagues (in terms of level of competition and style of play).  A smaller issue is the hard-on the scouting community has for players on the US National Development Team.  It seems to occur to no one that part of the reason the team performs so well at international events is, unlike their competition, they play together all year.  That advantage inflates opinions about the players and so that you can find virtually every draft eligible player on that team on someone’s list.

Ottawa and the Draft

The Sens have the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  If there are no trades and my list is exactly the same as Ottawa’s  (it won’t be, but play along) the Sens would draft: Zemgus Girgensons, Robbie Baillargeon, Troy Bourke, Seth Griffith, Daniel Altshuller, Dominic Volek and Grant Besse.  That would be 6 forwards and a goalie, which is a very unlikely situation.  The vast majority of mock drafts have the Sens picking Hampus Lindholm (who  at #16 would be available following my analysis) or Olli Maatta (who would not be available going at #14).  The Sens also brought Andrei Vasilevski (#24), Malcolm Subban (#30), Daniel Altshuller (#136), and Francois Brassard (#176) to Ottawa and they could select any of the goaltenders as things play out below.

First Round

1. Nail Yakupov (1.14) – the consensus #1 pick with only HP ranking him anywhere else (at #2)
2. Filip Forsberg (3.28) – in a statistical tie with Ryan Murray, but beats him head-to-head
3. Ryan Murray (D) (3.28) – only Bob McKenzie see’s him higher than this slot (at #2)
4. Alex Galchenyuk (5.14) – the only other player to get a #1 ranking (HP); ISS thinks the least of him ranking him #14
5. Griffin Reinhart (D) (6.42) – ranked as high as #4 (HP/TSN) and as low (RLR) as #9
6. Matt Dumba (D) (7.42) – in a statistical tie with Grigorenko and loses on aggregate, but I think the Russian factor tilts in his favour
7. Mikhail Grigorenko (7.42) – ranked as high as #3 (THN) or as low (TSN/HP) as #12
8. Morgan Rielly (D) (7.57) – ranked between #6 (RLR/THN) and #9 (FC/HP)
9. Teuvo Teravainen (8.00) – placed as high as #5 (McK) and as low as #12 (THN); he just edges out Trouba on aggregate as well as overall score
10. Jacob Trouba (D) (8.14) – he’s as high as #5 (ISS) and as low as #11 (RLR)
11. Cody Ceci (D) (12.71) – a big drop off in score from the top-ten players, no one has him listed higher than #10 (ISS/THN); RLR has the low score (#19)
12. Radek Faksa (14.00) – has a narrow range with the high #11 (TSN/THN) and the low #16 (RLR/ISS/McK)
13. Derrick Pouliot (D) (15.00) – rated quite low by ISS (#22), HP has his high at #10
14. Olli Maatta (D) (17.29) – the better sources have him higher (#10 TSN), but HP (#26) and FC (#27) push his score lower; when throwing out Girgensons outlier (HP) Maatta beats him easily on aggregate
15. Zemgus Girgensons (16.00) – his score is boosted by HP’s ridiculous ranking (#5!); ISS has the low at #24
16. Hampus Lindholm (D) (19.57) – his score hurt by an absurd rating from HP (#44), he easily beats Gaunce and Koekkoek head-to-head (the high is McK at #11)
17. Brendan Gaunce (19.14) – the first player with a second round placement (RLR #34), ISS has him highest at #11
18. Slater Koekkoek (D) (19.57) – despite a wide range (#11 for ISS, #23 for THN), all sources have him selected in the first round
19. Sebastien Collberg (21.00) – has a lower score than Finn, but he beats him on aggregate; highest at #12 (FC) and lowest from another bizarre HP ranking (#43)
20. Matthew Finn (D) (20.29) – highest rank at #14 (RLR) while his lowest is #26 (FC)
21. Thomas Wilson (22.14) – ranges from #17 (ISS) to #30 (FC); he is the last player to receive only first round selections from all sources
22. Pontus Aberg (23.14) – hurt by TSN’s #37; RLR has him highest at #15
23. Tomas Hertl (24.00) – ranges from TSN’s #19 to ISS’ #32
24. Andrei Vasilevski (G) (24.42) – by far the highest ranked goaltender, only ISS see’s him picked in the second round (RLR ranks him highest at #10)
25. Brady Skjei (D) (26.14) – FC pushes him into the second round (#37), but most have him as a first-rounder with #21 the high (McK)
26. Scott Laughton (29.43) – RLR is a fan (#17), but several sources have him in the second round (#42 is the low with THN)
27. Colton Sissons (30.14) – ranges from FC’s #16 to THN’s #40
28. Phillip Di Giuseppe (30.29) – HP loves him (#17), but five see him as an early second rounder (#36 from FC is the low)
29. Dalton Thrower (D) (31.43) – ranges from #23 (HP) to #39 (TSN)
30. Malcolm Subban (G) (38.28) – he does not have the next best overall score, but he’s hurt badly by RLR (#69) which masks his four first round selections, the highest #24 (McK)

Honourable mentions: six players had better overall scores than Subban (Stefan Matteau, Oscar Dansk, Ludvig Bystrom, Nicholas Kerdiles, Henrik Samuelsson, and Martin Frk).  Given the disinclination for teams to draft goaltenders in the first round, it’s entirely possible one of these players may go before Subban.  In terms of the number of players who also had first round selections they go in this order (a total of 15 players):
Three (3): Bystrom (ISS, FC, THN), Matteau (McK, THN, TSN), Mike Matheson (McK, THN, TSN)
Two (2): Samuelsson (RLR, ISS), Kerdiles (ISS, FC)
One (10): Dansk (FC), Jordan Schmaltz (RLR), Ville Pokka (THN), Tim Bozon (HP), Scott Kosmachuk (RLR), Tanner Pearson (TSN), Patrick Sieloff (HP), Damon Severson (RLR), Adam Pelech (ISS), and anomalously Jake Dotchin (HP with another odd decision)

Second Round

31. Ludvig Bystrom (D) (34.43) – it’s very close between he and Matteau (who has a better overall score), but he wins the head-to-head comparison; THN has him highest (#19) and HP the lowest (#52)
32. Stefan Matteau (32.57) – a very narrow range beginning at #23 (TSN) other than an RLR ‘s ranking (#48)
33. Oscar Dansk (G) (35.57) – only FC (#25) has him in the first round (THN has the low of #44)
34. Henrik Samuelsson (36.29) – ranks behind Kerdiles on overall score, but beats him head-to-head; RLR has him highest (#22) while THN has him in the back half of the second round (#50)
35. Nicholas Kerdiles (35.00) – boosted by a very high scores from ISS (#15) and FC (#17); HP has the low at #50
36. Mike Matheson (D) (37.86) – the last player with three first round selections (lead by TSN’s #26); HP has the low at #56
37. Martin Frk (37.00) – the highest ranked player without a first round placement (HP has the high at #31, THN the low at #45)
38. Jordan Schmaltz (D) (37.86) – a statistical tie with Matheson, he’s much closer in comparison to Jankowski below; RLR loves him (#23) while FC has the low (#47)
39. Mark Jankowski (D) (39.29) – tied with Pokka below, the difference between he, Pokka, and Schmaltz is negligible; RLR gives him the high (#28) while ISS provides the low (#55)
40. Ville Pokka (D) (39.29) – given that Europeans are often misranked it’s tempting to put him ahead of Schmaltz, but based on the comparison he slots here; THN has the high (#28) while FC has the low (#55)
41. Tim Bozon (40.14) – HP has him as a first-rounder (#21), but he’s strongly slotted in the second (TSN with the low at #50)
42. Scott Kosmachuk (43.00) – RLR puts him in the first round (#25), but colour him a second-rounder (FC with the low at #57)
43. Tanner Pearson (45.57) – the first player with a third-round ranking (ISS at #88), he easily wins out over those ranked below (TSN has the high with #29)
44. Patrick Sieloff (D) (47.14) – who would have thought two assists in 24-games would earn you a ranking this high?  Sieloff gets a first round nod from HP (#24), but RLR has him mid-third round (#75)
45. Damon Severson (48.86) – while RLR has him in the first round (#30), most see him later in the second; THN slots him in the third at #65
46. Daniil Zharkov (50.00) – one suspects the Russian factor has made his rankings erratic, with FC putting him at #32 while HP has him at #75
47. Brady Vail (52.00) – the final player to be ranked in the second round by all sources; the high is #40 (McK), the low #60 (TSN)
48. Adam Pelech (D) (52.29) – the second last player to get a first round ranking (#30 from ISS), both RLR and FC have him in the third (#73 FC)
49. Mike Winther (57.14) – his score is off because of HP’s ranking (#97), but he easily beats both Slepyshev and Sutter on aggregate; THN has the high at #35
50. Anton Slepyshev (53.5) – the first player not ranked by all sources (TSN doesn’t list him), none of the players below him truly compare to his rankings; ISS has him highest (#36), while HP puts him lowest (#78)
51. Lukas Sutter (55.14) – despite his number he isn’t that far ahead of Maidens; RLR has the high (#37), while ISS has the low (#68)
52. Jarrod Maidens (58.14) – suffers from RLR’s score (#81); THN provides the high (#38)
53. Brian Hart (59.43) – ranges from #46 (TSN/FC) to #95 (HP)
54. Cristoval Nieves (62.29) – not the next highest by score, but is easily the next highest on aggregate; TSN has the high (#51), while RLR has the low (#93)
55. Nikolai Prokhorkin (62.5) – like Nieves he’s not the next highest, but wins head-to-head; ranges from #51 (ISS) to #77 (McK)
56. Jake McCabe (66.86) – along with the previous two players, the aggregate puts him ahead; ranges from #35 (FC) to #98 (HP)
57. Dane Fox (64.83) – ranges from #45 (RLR) to #94 (FC)
58. Chandler Stephenson (64.83) – statistical tie with Fox, but loses head-to-head; RLR has the high (#53), while FC has the low (#85)
59. Matt Murray (G) (65.28) – the final player with four second round selections; ranges from #41 (FC) to #119 (RLR)
60. Mikko Vainonen (D) (73.17) – tied with Gemel Smith as the last player with three second round selections, but he wins on aggregate; HP has the high (#39) while RLR has a low (#122)

Honourable mentions: Gemel Smith is the final player with three second round selections (ISS/HP/THN); eight other players were selected twice (Joonas Korpisalo (FC/McK), Devin Shore (RLR/TSN), Tanner Richard (RLR/HP), Andreas Athanasiou (ISS/THN), Calle Andersson (ISS/FC), Nick Ebert (RLR/THN), Tomas Hyka (ISS/THN), and Trevor Carrick (ISS/McK)).  I’ll also mention Dominic Toninato who has a very high score, but was only picked by two publications (RLR/HP) which isn’t enough for his placement to reflect that score.

Third Round

61. Gemel Smith (66.33) – the last player with three second round selections; ranges from #46 (THN) to #83 (RLR/McK)
62. Joonas Korpisalo (G) (70.2) – CS’ third ranked European goaltender has a wide range, from #51 (McK) to the fourth round (ISS)
63. Emil Lundberg (60.33) – a wild card as only three publications list him (ISS, FC, and THN), he’s well-regarded by those sources (#52 from THN to #66 from ISS)
64. Devin Shore (66.00) – a couple of players have better scores, but he’s by far the best aggregate of all the players who follow; his range is #46 (RLR) to #90 (McK)
65. Brett Kulak (D) (62.67) – highly regarded by HP (#32); FC and ISS share his low score (#71)
66. Branden Troock (73.17) – hammered by RLR (#116), THN has him in the second round (#54)
67. Calle Andersson (D) (76.33) – a wide range for the Swede, with a #39 from FC and a #144 from RLR
68. Brandon Whitney (G) (72.6) – CS’ second ranked North American goaltender, ISS has him in the fourth round while he’s at #53 for HP
69. Andreas Athanasiou (73.67) – widely divergent opinions with THN putting him at #32 and McKeens at #106
70. Tomas Hyka (80.17) – another player who could go early or late, both ISS and THN still have him at #39 while RLR ranks him at #124
71. Nick Ebert (D) (79.83) – no one’s stock fell from greater heights than Ebert’s; RLR still has him at #54, while McKeens ranks him at #111
72. Matia Marcantuoni (81.29) – the last player ranked by all sources, he ranges from #58 (TSN) to #110 (RLR)
73. Trevor Carrick (D) (85.83) – suffers from RLR’s ranking (#155), McKeens thinks highly of him (#49)
74. Tanner Richard (73.5) – either a second or fourth rounder, #43 (RLR) to #105 (FC)
75. Dylan Blujus (D) (80.83) – HP isn’t a fan (#115), but THN has him in the second round (#57)
76. Robbie Baillargeon (79.2) – loses to Blujus on aggregate, ranges from #69 (ISS) to #107 (FC)
77. Esa Lindell (D) (96.67) – suffers from RLR’s #187, HP puts him in the second round (#41)
78. Sam Kurker (83.83) – one of TSN’s last selections, he beats Bluegar on aggregate; high of #55 (TSN), low of #117 (RLR)
79. Teddy Bluegar (80.2) – ranges from #58 (McK) to #116 (FC)
80. James Melindy (D) (83.00) – next best on aggregate, ranging from #60 (FC) to #114 (HP)
81. Dillon Fournier (D) (85.17) – all over the map with HP’s #37 and ISS’ #132
82. Troy Bourke (93.4) – his score is blown up by HP’s #180; RLR puts him in the second round (#51)
83. Zach Stepan (94.17) – the last player with four third-round selections, HP has the high (#70), while RLR has the low (#164)
84. Raphael Bussieres (89.33) – wins the aggregate battle over Stolarz; ranges from #76 (McK) to #104 (RLR)
85. Anthony Stolarz (G) (86.8) – CS’ fourth ranked North American goaltender is a second-rounder for HP (#54); FC has the low (#108)
86. Steven Hodges (90.00) – is evenly placed in the third and fourth round, ranging from #77 (THN) to #99 (FC)
87. Charles Hudon (93.17) – a high of #52 (FC) to a low of #129 (HP)
88. Coda Gordon (94.67) – all over the map, suffering from HP’s ranking (#136), FC has him in the second round (#54)
89. Gianluca Curcuruto (D) (92.00) – ranges from #70 (RLR) to #128 (HP)
90. Nikita Gusev (109.2) – a huge range from #49 (ISS) to #218 (RLR)

Honourable mention: Toninato (mentioned above) remains out for the same reason why Jacob Slavin (he on the back of a high HP rating).  Jon Gillies, Erik Karlsson, Nicholas Walters, and Joe Paterson had three selections in the third (or second) round, while the following 17 players had at least two third round (or a second and third round) selections: Andrei Makarov, MacKenzie MacEachern, Mitchell Moroz, Brian Cooper, Cody Corbett, Logan Nelson, Josh Anderson, Ben Johnson, Samuel Fejes, Jesse Graham, Ryan Culkin, John Draegar, Marcus McIvor, Collin Olson, Mikael Wikstrand, Valeri Vasiliev, and Brock McGinn.

91. Jake Paterson (G) (98.4) – ranges from #59 (McK) to #175 (RLR)
92. Jon Gillies (G) (104.4) – beats Karlsson on aggregate, ranging from #61 (McK) to #200 (HP)
93. Erik Karlsson (103.4) – he’s all over the map from #46 (McK) to #170 (RLR)
94. Nicholas Walters (D) (112.00) – the last player with three selections in the second or third round, he ranges from #57 (HP) to #126 (RLR)
95. Jacob Slavin (D) (92.33) – only listed by three sources, his high is #65 (HP), the low #112 (FC)
96. Dominic Toninato (51.00) – only listed by two sources, but both rank him highly (#36 from RLR, #66 from HP)
97. Mitchell Moroz (101.00) – the second last player ranked by TSN (#56), he wins the aggregate battle against those with higher scores; his low is ISS’ #170
98. Brian Cooper (D) (102.5) – another aggregate winner, he ranges from #79 (THN) to #160 (HP)
99. Brendan Leipsic (96.8) – in a statistical tie with Tikkinen, but wins head-to-head; high of #57 (RLR) and low of #135 (HP)
100. Niklas Tikkinen (D) (96.8) – range of #43 (ISS) to #134 (FC)
101. Ben Johnson (111.8) – rankings all over the place with a #56 from ISS and a #186 from HP; he beats out those with higher scores on aggregate
102. Cody Corbett (D) (104.2) – the next aggregate champ, his high is #66 (FC) and his low is #143 (RLR)
103. Josh Anderson (106.00) – I’ve seen his first name spelt Joshua as well; the next head-t0-head champ; he ranges from #68 (HP) to #177 (RLR)
104. Mackenzie MacEachern (99.5) – not ranked by ISS, his high is #73 (RLR), his low #141 (FC)
105. Riley Barber (108.2) – an aggregate champ, he ranges from #82 (RLR) to #139 (FC)
106. Seth Griffith (101.3) – ranges from #52 (RLR) to #144 (ISS)
107. Andrei Makarov (G) (115.6) – ahead on aggregate, he’s all over the place, from #44 (RLR) to a 7th rounder (ISS)
108. Jake Dotchin (D) (100.5) – an HP favourite (#30), his low is #154 (FC)
109. Francois Tremblay (G) (110.8) – ranges from #71 (McK) to a 5th rounder (ISS)
110. Logan Nelson (105.8) – behind Tremblay head-to-head, he ranges from #66 (McK) to #142 (FC)
111. Chris Calnan (110.4) – big range between McKeen’s #78 and ISS’ #157
112. Henri Ikonen (148.2) – his score is massively inflated by RLR’s #301 which is far above all his other rankings (McKeen’s has him at #75)
113. Mikael Wikstrand (D) (128.2) – hammered by RLR’s #191, ISS and THN rank him at #85
114. Samuel Fejes (113.00) – suffers from RLR’s #181, FC puts him in the second round (#59)
115. Chris Tierney (113.8) – beats Vatrano head-to-head, ranges from #87 (RLR) to #177 (FC)
116. Frankie Vatrano (113.3) – beats Vesey on aggregate, his high is #97 (THN) and his low is #144 (HP)
117. Jim Vesey (112.8) – ranges from #85 (RLR) to #152 (HP)
118. Valeri Vasiliev (D) (132.8) – all over the place, but one of the last players with a second round ranking (#57); RLR puts him out of the draft (#243)
119. Brock McGinn (138.00) – the last player ranked by TSN (#59), he’s not well-regarded by ISS (#164)
120. Jesse Graham (D) (114.3) – ranges from #65 (ISS) to #181 (FC)

Honourable mention: Culkin, Draegar, McIvor, and Olson remain with two third round selections; a large number of players remain with at least one third round placement; Connor Brown remains as the only player left with a second round ranking (another radical HP selection).  Justin Kea has the highest remaining score, but was only picked by two sources (ISS and McKeen’s), and Michael Clarke leads the way with four fourth-round selections (ISS, HP, McK, and THN).

Fifth Round

121. Ryan Culkin (D) (117.00) – the next aggregate champ, a high of #67 (ISS) and a low of #182 (RLR)
122. Marcus McIvor (D) (123.6) – hurt by HP’s ranking (#205); ISS has him at #78
123. Michael Clarke (117.8) – more fourth round selections than anyone else; ranges from #94 (McK) to #159 (FC)
124. Collin Olson (G) (124.3) – hurt by HP’s ranking (#199); FC puts him at #84
125. John Draegar (D) (122.00) – the last player with two third round selections; ranges from #81 (McK) to #157 (FC)
126. Artur Gavrus (120.6) – third round consideration from RLR (#72), he bottoms out with FC (#167)
127. Kevin Roy (117.8) – a wide range, from #80 (McK) to #156 (RLR)
128. Matthew DeBlouw (119.5) – hurt by FC’s ranking (#170); ISS has him at #87
129. Connor Carrick (D) (125.00) – next on aggregate; his high is #85 (HP) and his low is #162 (ISS)
130. Christian Djoos (D) (132.8) – hurt by RLR’s #196, FC picks him for the third round (#83)
131. Max Iafrate (D) (114.5) – ranges from #80 (ISS) to #150 (HP)
132. Justin Hache (D) (125.8) – next on aggregate, ranging from #88 (THN) to #188 (HP)
133. Zack Leslie (D) (124.5) – ranges from #81 (THN) to #159 (ISS)
134. Tyrel Seaman (127.00) – wins head-to-head; #91 (THN) to #161 (HP)
135. Cedric Paquette (126.00) – only three sources list him with ISS providing the low (#168) and RLR the high (#94)
136. Daniel Altshuller (G) (128.5) – all over the place, with an #95 (FC) to a sixth round from ISS
137. Chris Marchese (126.00) – ranges from #106 (HP) to #152 (FC)
138. Jujhar Khaira (128.8) – a high of #108 (RLR) to a low of #149 (FC)
139. Jordan Martinook (125.00) – hurt by RLR’s #190, HP has him in the third round (#72)
140. Dan O’Regan (129.5) – ranges from #113 (RLR) to #145 (FC)
141. Justin Kea (111.5) – only ranked by two sources (#105 ISS and #118 McK)
142. Francis Beauvillier (145.00) – aggregate champ, he ranges from #95 (McK) to #210 (HP)
143. Travis Brown (D) (120.3) – ranges from #96 (RLR) to #135 (FC)
144. Anton Zlobin (145.5) – all over the place from #91 (RLR) to #203 (HP)
145. Petteri Lindbohm (D) (121.5) – only picked by two sources (#118 ISS and #125 FC)
146. Kenton Helgesen (D) (122.5) – also only picked by two sources (#96 ISS and #149 RLR)
147. Devin Tringale (119.00) only picked by two sources (#106 ISS and #132 FC)
148. Christophe Lalancette (136.00) – next on aggregate, he ranges from #109 (FC) to #189 (ISS)
149. Viacheslav Osnovin (146.5) – his score is thrown by RLR’s #248; ISS puts him in the third round (#77)
150. Chris Driedger (G) (136.00) – aggregate winner, ISS has him as a third rounder while HP ranks him at #185

Honourable mentions: Brown still remains (the last second round pick), as do 8 players who received a third round selection (Rhett Holland, Ryan Rupert, Judd Peterson, Jaynen Rissling, Jake Montgomery, Ludvig Nilsson, Matthew Lane, and Mike McKee).

Sixth Round

151. Brandon Magee (130.00) – only listed by two sources (#123 ISS, #137 RLR)
152. Kristoff Kontos (133.7) – ranges from #105 (HP) to #171 (FC)
153. Ludvig Nilsson (161.2) – very mixed opinions on him, with THN ranking him at #67 and RLR dropping him out of the draft at #249
154. Matej Beran (134.7) – aggregate champ, ranges from #93 (ISS) to #180 (FC)
155. Mikko Lehtonen (D) (142.3) – hurt by RLR (#193), HP puts him in the fourth round (#113)
156. Troy Donnay (D) (148.00) – his score is thrown by RLR (#250); ISS ranks him at #92
157. Gustav Rydahl (137.3) – drops due to aggregate, he ranges from #103 (FC) to #161 (ISS)
158. Alexandre Mallet (138.7) – thrown by his ISS score (#198), HP ranks him at #107
159. Cameron Darcy (163.8) – head-to-head leader, his high score is #113 (ISS), his low #251 (RLR)
160. Reece Wilcox (D) (148.00) – next on aggregate, ranging from #101 (McK) to #194 (FC)
161. Quentin Shore (155.3) – scores are all over the place, from #104 (McK) to #233 (RLR)
162. Thomas Di Pauli (169.3) – buried by RLR (#255), HP has him at #117
163. Alexei Filippov (172.5) – also buried by RLR (#235), ISS has him at #127
164. Matthew Campagna (140.00) – best score among players with three or more sources; from #101 RLR to #173 HP
165. Jaynen Rissling (D) (150.5) – highest ranked player with four sources; from #64 RLR to #204 HP
166. Dominic Volek (151.8) – wide variety of opinion, from #99 (THN) to #180 (ISS)
167. Ashton Sautner (D) (168.00) – ranges from #130 ISS to #203 RLR
168. Jake Montgomery (160.5) – his score is hurt by RLR (#215); FC puts him in the third round (#86)
169. Rhett Holland (D) (145.00) – the highest ranked three-source player remaining; RLR #68, ISS #199
170. Ryan Rupert (147.3) – ranges from #74 (RLR) to #200 (ISS)
171. Graham Black (154.3) – rankings from #114 (RLR) to #177 (HP)
172. Joey Laleggia (D) (154.7) – ranges from #112 (HP) to #177 (ISS)
173. Matthew Beattie (155.7) – best three-sourcer on aggregate; #144 FC to #166 RLR
174. A. J. Michaelson (169.00) – his score is hurt by HP (#198), ISS with the high at #133
175. Adam Gilmour (177.8) – RLR throws his score with a #234; FC has the high at #137
176. Francois Brassard (G) (148.6) – ranges from #120 (RLR) to #191 (HP)
177. Carter Rigby (158.7) – high of #138 (RLR) to a low of #173 (ISS)
178. Matthew Lane (180.3) – ranges from #89 (ISS) to #239 (RLR)
179. Logan McVeigh (158.00) – hurt by his RLR ranking (#209); high of #120 (FC)
180. Austin Wuthrich (134.00) – only ranked by McKeens and HP

Honourable mention: Brown remains with his second round selection; Peterson and McKee are the only players left with a third round selection.  Reid Gow and Andrew Ryan are the only players remaining picked to be drafted by four sources.  There are some highly ranked players from CS that are either not considered by any other source or only by one.

Seventh Round

181. Dakota Mermis (D) (139.00) – only ranked by ISS and FC
182. Jake Bischoff (D) (140.5) – only ranked by RLR and FC
183. Connor Brown (156.7) – loved by HP (#58), RLR has the low at #238
184. Joel Wigle (163.7) – ahead on aggregate, ranging from #108 (HP) to #246 (RLR)
185. Marek Langhammer (G) (150.00) – ranked by FC and RLR, CS ranks him as the 5th best European goaltender
186. Tobias Tornkvist (152.00) –  along with FC and RLR, CS ranks him as 29th among European skaters
187. Erik Thorell (n/a) – ranked #111 by ISS, CS lists him as the 19th best European skater
188. Jeremy Boyce Rotevall (n/a) – ranked #120 by ISS, CS lists him as the 24th best European skater
189. Reid Gow (D) (176.3) – the second last player picked by four sources to be drafted; ranges from #162 (HP) to #190 (FC)
190. Andrew Ryan (187.8) – the last player picked by four sources to be drafted; ranges from #162 (RLR) to #205 (FC)
191. Denis Kamaev (192.3) – his score is thrown by RLR (#296); ISS has him at #138
192. Brandon Devlin (D) (185.00) – the last player to appear in four sources; ranges from #147 (ISS) to #254 (RLR)
193. Patrik Bartosak (G) (175.6) – ranges from #158 (FC) to #204 (RLR)
194. Cain Franson (174.00) – a high of #142 (ISS), a low of #202 (RLR)
195. Cliff Watson (D) (178.3) – ranges from #165 (HP) to #188 (RLR)
196. Grant Besse (180.00) – the last player picked by three sources to be drafted; ranges from #139 (RLR) to #207 (FC)
197. Zane Jones (145.5) – only ranked by RLR and ISS
198. Colin Smith (152.5) – only ranked by RLR and FC
199. Nathan Pancel (154.5) – only ranked by RLR and HP
200. Matt Rupert (158.5) – only ranked by RLR and HP
201. Christoph Bertschy (168.5) – gets the nod by being CS’ 35th ranked European skater (also ranked by RLR and HP)
202. Nathan Walker (172.00) – CS’ 25th ranked European skater (also ranked by ISS and RLR)
203. Alexei Bereglazov (D) (n/a) – ranked #95 by RLR, CS lists him as the 54th best European skater
204. Thomas Spelling (n/a) – ranked #115 by RLR, CS lists him as the 90th best European skater
205. Vladislav Shalimov (201.7) – ranges from #155 (ISS) to #281 (RLR)
206. Alexander Kerfoot (203.3) – ranges from #146 (FC) to #257 (RLR)
207. Alex Gudbranson (D) (162.5) – the top remaining two-source player (ranked by ISS and HP)
208. Liam O’Brien (163.00) – ranked by ISS and HP
209. Zack Mitchell (166.00) – ranked by ISS and HP
210. Simon Fernholm (D) (204.5) – ranked by FC and RLR, CS has him among the best in Europe (#32)

Honourable mentions: Judd Peterson (HP) and Mike McKee (RLR) who were ranked as third-rounders; 12 players were picked twice to be drafted (Cody Payne, James De Haas, Taylor Leier, Michael Houser, Michal Plutnar, Egor Malenkikh, Warren Steele, Brendan Collier, Taylor Burke, Mackenzie Weegar, Myles Bell, and Etienne Marcoux).  Three Europeans ranked by CS in their top-30 were not listed by any other source (Evgeni Krutikov, Erik Nemec, Otso Rantakari, and Jean Auren, the fourth ranking European goaltender).  Adam Johnson was CS’ top-listed North American who does not appear above (#82 on their list).  Other notables (picked in the fourth round): Christopher Clapperton (FC), Malte Stromwall (McK), Brett Foy (HP), Alex Basso (HP), Eric Locke (RLR), and Lukas Balmelli (ISS).  I did not use Corey Pronman’s list in my analysis and two of his second round picks (Austin Cangelosi and Austin Czarnik) do not appear (along with five of his third round selections).  For the scores of those above:
Judd Peterson (150.00)
Cody Payne (168.00)
James De Haas (170.5)
Taylor Leier (171.5)
Michael Houser (173.00)
Michal Plutnar (176.5)
Egor Malenkikh (177.00)
Warren Steele (178.00)
Brendan Collier (180.5)
Taylor Burke (187.00)
Christopher Clapperton (193.5)
Mackenzie Weegar (197.5)
Myles Bell (200.00)
Malte Stromwall (210.00)
Etienne Marcoux (220.00)

Overall the list includes 129 forwards, 64 defensemen, and 17 goaltenders, with 39 players coming fom Europe and 171 coming from North American leagues.

There are strong streaks of dissonance from HP’s rankings in the draft (mostly early) and RLR (generally later).  It will be interesting to see how much success each has once the draft is over.

June 19, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 9 Comments

Bob McKenzie’s 2012 NHL Draft Rankings

Tonight TSN’s Bob McKenzie has broadcast his list of the top players in the draft.  McKenzie has a stellar record for draft predictions and here are his top-30 rankings along with my thoughts.

1. Nail Yakupov
2. Ryan Murray
3. Filip Forsberg
4. Griffin Reinhart
5. Alex Galchenyuk
6. Matt Dumba
7. Teuvo Teravainen
8. Morgan Rielly
9. Jacob Trouba
10. Olli Maatta
11. Radek Faksa
12. Mikhail Grigorenko
13. Zemgus Girgensons
14. Cody Ceci
15. Hampus Lindholm
16. Slater Koekkoek
17. Derrick Pouliot
18. Thomas Wilson
19. Tomas Hertl
20. Brandan Gaunce
21. Matthew Finn
22. Brady Skjei
23. Stefan Matteau
24. Andrei Vasilevski
25. Malcolm Subban
26. Michael Matheson
27. Sebastien Collberg
28. Scott Laughton
29. Tanner Pearson
30. Phillip Di Giuseppe

There’s nothing radically different about McKenzie’s list as compared to other publications, although he has the two top goaltenders rated higher than most along with a few other idiosyncrasies.  With this list out my own draft predictions are right around the corner.

June 18, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

Senators News: June 16th

–Bryan Murray continues to beat the trade drums, “There are people on this team that we’re not really interested in trading. But it may well happen that we would try to do something to either add a player or a higher pick. We’re very open-minded. So if it gets out there that other managers would like to call, I’d be very open to that. We want to be competitive, obviously, and there will be a little more pressure on our team to do better, or at least the same type of thing next year. I’m not adverse to try and hurry it up. If there’s something we could do to make that happen, we’d love to make it happen. But we’re going to also protect as many of our assets as we can, knowing and thinking we have people very close to being NHL players that will compete this year.”

-In the same article, Pierre Dorion confirmed that “We will draft a goalie in this draft. Whether it’s in the first round or seventh round, we don’t know what’s going to happen.”  The lack of goaltending depth has troubled the franchise for quite some time, but I don’t think the Sens will spend a first round pick to select one.

–Nichols transcribes Bryan Murray’s interview with The Team 1200 which is worth reading in full albeit there’s not much new.  The one anecdote I found interesting was regarding Murray’s talks with Islander GM Garth Snow last year, “Garth Snow last year when I talked to him, he was picking I think one spot or two spots ahead of me, and I tried to flip with him to move up a couple of spots and his demand was ‘Tell me who you’re going to pick,’ and I wouldn’t do that, so he wouldn’t move. But if he says no to you, then he takes your guy because there may be some indecision on their part and with our history, our drafting has been good so they can use you as a lever sometimes.”  You have to wonder what Snow was thinking.

–Senschirp points out that the Sens have brought four draft-eligible goalies to Ottawa to have a look at them.  Malcolm Subban‘s visit was well-publicized, but the Sens have also taken a look at Russian Andrei Vasilevski, OHLer Daniel Altshuller and QMJHLer Francois Brassard.  While Subban and Vasilevski are two of the highest ranked goaltenders in the draft (tops in North America and Europe, respectively), the latter two are mid to late round prospects.  I seriously doubt the Sens will pick Vasilevski given their disinclination to draft Russians.

–TSN takes a lengthy look at the Senators prior to the draft and some interesting things to say.  “Since it was supposed to be a re-building year, the Senators’ prospect cupboard is quite well-stocked.  The Sens may be well-served trading their first-round pick for another big veteran voice in the locker room. The good news is that if they choose to keep the pick, Ottawa has the opportunity to select the best available player at the 15 slot and are not boxed in by any pressing immediate needs. Unfortunately, few teams allowed as many goals as the Senators as well. They appear to be set in [net] for both the present and the future, but the defence corps could use an added injection of youth. Since the 2012 draft class appears to be quite deep on the blue line, there is no time like the present to begin the re-stocking process.”  Scott Cullen runs down their prospects and highlights most of the notables.  It’s a good article and worth reading fully.

–John Henkelman previews the draft from an Ottawa perspective.  First he assesses the team and see’s Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, Andre Petersson, Mark Borowiecki, Patrick Wiercioch (calling him a “two-way defenseman”), and Eric Gryba as having the best chance to crack the NHL lineup.  He writes “GM Bryan Murray and his team will target puck-moving defensemen and scoring forwards with size and preferably some tenacity at both of these positions. Their philosophy is to opt for the best player available and will likely angle towards a defenseman over a forward this draft all things being equal. In the past the Senators have targeted specific players based on recommendations and they will continue to do so. The organization does place a high value on character and maturity when looking at potential new additions. The Senators did choose forwards with eight out of their 10 picks in the 2011 draft in order to replenish that position in their system. Look for them to emphasize defense more with this time around.”  I agree with Altenbaugh in terms of how the team will pick.  In Hockey Futures‘ mock draft Ottawa selected Olli Maata.

–Varada argues that there’s no point in picking a goalie in the first round and that it’s better to leave blueliners until late as well (based on an article by Cam Charron).  Both articles are worth reading, with Charron pointing out the low percentage of success for teams who pick goaltenders and blueliners in the first round.  To play devil’s advocate with the idea, Ottawa selected Erik Karlsson with the 15th overall pick and that’s a primary reason their rebuild is ahead of schedule, so is the issue completely tied to position?  What I take away from the analysis is that scouts have a harder time projecting blueliners, so ultimately what NHL teams need is better scouting.

June 16, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Senators News: June 15th

–Bryan Murray is putting the Sens first round pick (#15) up for grabs.  “There are people on this team who we are not really interested in trading. But it may well happen that we would try to do something to either add a player or a higher pick. We’re very open minded. So if it gets out there that other managers would like to call, I’d be very open with that. There aren’t a lot of contracts I’m trying to dump. I think the people that have them, have a chance to play on our hockey team. During the training camp process, or after that, if some young player steps up and is really showing that he is ready to play now, I have to try to look after that at the time.  It’s always been my theory that you pick the best player … at that time. And if you have to move him to get what you need later on, you probably can do that.”  This isn’t an unusual or unexpected sentiment for Murray, who has made trades every single draft as Ottawa’s GM.  Mind you, it’s one thing to be ready to deal and it’s another to find a dance partner.

–Pierre Dorion is also talking about the draft, “With the way the 2010-11 season ended, with us trading away a lot of assets, we approached last year as a very big draft. I think we go into this draft with a different mindset in that we know we’re not going to pick as often as we did last year. But we still go into it with the mindset that you never know what’s going to happen. We’re dealing from a position of power now when it comes to the quality prospects we have. A number of these players won the Calder Cup (in 2011), and a number of them played and contributed on our team this year. I think at every position we have what I would call blue-chip prospects. Some are playing right now, some will be playing down the road. There are some bigger names at the top [of the draft], but I see quite a few good players. Whether they make it next year, or whether it will take them one year or three years to make it will depend on their learning curves, physically and mentally. If you get caught up in drafting by position, you’re not drafting the best asset.”  To me these comments compliment Murray’s desire for wheeling and dealing quite well.

-Not surprisingly Murray doesn’t expect to be very busy when it comes to free agency.  There’s a need to fill a hole on the blueline, but otherwise nothing is certain.

–Alan Panzeri offers the names of six players the Sens might be eyeing for the draft: Sebastien Collberg, Hampus Lindholm, Pontus Aberg, Ollie Maata, Cody Ceci, and Radek Faksa.  It’s an interesting list, but Panzeri doesn’t indicate whether it comes from his best guess or from talking to the organisation, so take it with a grain of salt.

–Sportsnet provides their list of top-five players rising in the draft: Tom Wilson, Derrick Pouliot, Teuvo Teravainen, Cody Ceci, and Lukas Sutter.  The only nonsensical member of this list is Ceci, who was highly regarded at the beginning of the season.

-Mock drafts abound and THN see’s Ottawa selecting Hampus Lindholm.  The NHL website has three mock drafts posted.  Mike G. Morreale has Ottawa picking Matt Finn, Adam Kimelman see’s Ottawa picking Cody Ceci, and Steven Hoffner follows the trend of Ottawa picking Hampus Lindholm.

-The Sens have posted video of their amateur scouting meeting.  The best part of this to me is watching Vaclav Burda’s expressions.

-For those of you who want a refresher on the various draft resources that I’ve looked at, here are the links:
International Scouting Service (ISS)
Red Line Report
Future Considerations
Hockey Prospects
Mckeen’s
The Hockey News
Hockey Prospectus

June 15, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Hockey Prospectus’ 2012 NHL Draft Rankings

Hockey Prospectus’ Corey Pronman has a list of his top-125 2012 NHL draft rankings, so here’s a look at his top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about his reasoning.

1.  Nail Yakupov, Left Wing, Sarnia-OHL
2.  Mikhail Grigorenko, Center, Quebec-QMJHL
3.  Alexander Galchenyuk, Center, Sarnia-OHL
4.  Filip Forsberg, Right Wing, Leksands-Allsvenskan
5. Teuvo Teravainen, Left Wing, Jokerit-SM-Liiga
6.  Matt Dumba, Defense, Red Deer-WHL
7. Morgan Rielly, Defense, Moose Jaw-WHL
8. Ryan Murray, Defense, Everett-WHL
9. Pontus Aberg, Left Wing, Djurgarden-SEL
10. Radek Faksa, Center, Kitchener-OHL
11. Sebastian Collberg, Right Wing, Frolunda-SEL
12. Jacob Trouba, Defense, USA Under-18 National Team-USHL
13. Cody Ceci, Defense, Ottawa-OHL
14. Zemgus Girgensons, Center, Dubuque-USHL
15. Griffin Reinhart, Defense, Edmonton-WHL
16. Hampus Lindholm, Defense, Rogle-Allsvenskan
17. Anton Slepyshev, Left Wing, Novokuznetsk-KHL
18. Tomas Hertl, Center, HC Slavia Praha-Czech Extraliga
19. Matt Finn, Defense, Guelph-OHL
20. Ludvig Bystrom, Defense, MODO-SEL
21. Olli Maatta, Defense, London-OHL
22. Nikolai Prokhorkin, Center, CSKA-MHL
23. Slater Koekkoek, Defense, Peterborough-OHL
24. Derrick Pouliot, Defense, Portland-WHL
25. Brendan Gaunce, Center, Belleville-OHL
26. Tim Bozon, Left Wing, Kamloops-WHL
27. Nicolas Kerdiles, Left Wing, USA Under-18 National Team-USHL
28. Daniil Zharkov, Right Wing, Belleville-OHL
29. Ville Pokka, Defense, Karpat-SM-Liiga
30. Scott Laughton, Center, Oshawa-OHL

Pronman talks about his process of ranking the players, “these reports are not based on the work of an independent scouting service. While the reports are based somewhat on my personal viewings of most of the prospects profiled of whom I have seen most play at least once, predominantly though video scouting, a significant portion of my notes come from talking to scouts and NHL execs and accumulating a lot of information from different sources throughout the year. The way I feel I can do my job at its peak is to accumulate as much information as I can, and then use that information to independently assess the value of players. The information I use to assess players does come from sources aside from my own eyes, but the ranking process has zero influence from others. I am a fan of something I’ve borrowed from the baseball scouting world and have adapted to hockey scouting called the 20-80 scale. In short, it is a distinct scouting language, derived originally from using standard deviations to assess talent distributions. To avoid confusing readers, I do not use number grades at all due to the lack of popularity of the scale in hockey circles, however the language I use throughout my reports have a rhyme and reason to which you should be informed about. Here is how I use the 20-80 scale with certain words that you will see in all of my reports: 40 is fringe/replacement level 45 is below average 50 grade is NHL average/average/pro-level/decent 55 is above average 60 is plus/top tier 70 is amongst the NHL’s elite/plus-plus 80 is a generational talent but it is never used in this draft preview.”

I don’t think the 20-80 scale is any clearer than any other numerical or alphabetical system.  Pronman “Together, Fenwick/Corsi and Luck account for around 3/4 of team winning percentage.  What’s the remainder?  Goaltending talent – which Tom Awad estimates at about 5% – and special teams, along with a very small sliver that’s due to shooting talent and the oft-mentioned “shot quality.”  So I don’t think there’s a false dichotomy here – there are five factors in this model, all of which are given credence in proportion to their predictive power.”  He also puts a large emphasis on possession (puck-control).

Because (or despite) Pronman’s approach his rankings are largely in line with other publications except for his shuffling of goaltenders down the rankings.  His first-round selections all match at least one other draft source except for Slepyshev, Prokhorkin and Zharkov.  It’s worthwhile checking Pronman out–there’s no cost and it’s yet another resource for draft fans.

June 14, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

« Previous Page — Previous page Next page — Next Page »