Senators News: July 2nd

-The Sens have released their development camp roster:
Goaltenders
Andrew Hammond (FA 2013)
Chris Driedger (3-76/12)
Francois Brassard (6-166/12)
Marcus Hogberg (3-78/13)
Branden Komm (FA NCAA Bentley University)
Defensemen
Troy Rutkowski (FA 2013)
Chris Wideman (4-100/09)
Michael Sdao (7-191/09)
Fredrik Claesson (5-126/11)
Cody Ceci (1-15/12)
Tim Boyle (4-106/12)
Ben Harpur (4-108/13)
Justin DaSilva (FA NCAA Ohio)
Mathieu Gagnon (undrafted)
Jeff Corbett (undrafted)
Macoy Erkamps (undrafted)
Forwards
Buddy Robinson (FA 2013)
Corey Conacher (FA 2013)
Cole Schneider (FA 2012)
Wacey Hamilton (FA 2011)
Derek Grant (4-119/08)
Jeff Costello (5-146/09)
Jakub Culek (3-76/10)
Mark Stone (6-178/10)
Mika Zibanejad (1-6/11)
Stefan Noesen (1-20/11)
Matt Puempel (1-24/11)
Shane Prince (2-61/11)
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4-96/11)
Darren Kramer (6-156/11)
Max McCormick (6-171/11)
Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11)
Jarrod Maidens (3-82/12)
Robert Baillargeon (5-136/12)
Curtis Lazar (1-17/13)
Tobias Lindberg (4-102/13)
Vincent Dunn (5-138/13)
Chris Leblanc (6-161/13)
Quentin Shore (6-168/13)
Jack Berger (FA NCAA Princeton)

-Here’s my review of the Sens 2013 NHL entry draft, including the most comprehensive scouting reports on all the players picked out there along with comments from the organisation about each player.  Allan Muir gives the Sens a B- for their draft, writing:

Another team desperate for offense, the Sens tabbed forward Curtis Lazar (17) in the first round. Scouts raved about his character and wheels, but his scoring potential is up for debate. Marcus Hogberg (78) is a big, rangy goaltender who fills the organizational hole left by the trade of Ben Bishop. Center Quentin Shore (168) was picked up late after being passed over last year. He’s hardly a blue chipper, but he’s a kid whose heart and bloodlines make him worth watching.

How this becomes his grade is not clear–his assessment would be much more useful if he wrote who they should have taken (since, presumably, a B- is a subpar assessment).

-Here’s my look at how all the draft prognosticators did in the draft.

–Amelia L writes about how the Sens approach to development camp changed with the Murray regime.  She sums it up with:

Ottawa’s development camps have evolved from relatively simple, introductory camps to complex multi-purpose events. Originally, camps were held so recent draft picks and prospects could meet coaches and workout as part of an internal evaluation program. Today, the annual development camp is a week-long indoctrination into all aspects of club life. The expanded staffs of recent development camps reflect an organizational push to ensure the methodology employed in the NHL is used in the AHL. Coaches and assistants, video coaches, and the athletic therapist of the Binghamton Senators now attended the camps as well, ensuring a united message is delivered to all prospects. Initiatives such as yoga, biochemistry sessions, nutrition seminars, and healthy cooking classes illustrate an increased concern on players’ overall health, a growing trend in pro sports. Team building exercises and “Champions” presentations help future teammates bond and indoctrinate players about the “Ottawa way” – the club’s expectations on and off the ice. In the future, I wouldn’t be surprised to see organizations such as the “You Can Play Project” take part in this aspect of development camps. Perhaps seminars such as “Acceptable Use of Social Media” will be added to next year’s camp.

–Elliotte Friedman stirs the blogging pot with this:

Can there seriously be an issue between Daniel Alfredsson and the Ottawa Senators? Can you imagine Boston — now in need a right-winger — even being able to bid because this gets to Friday?

I don’t see an issue.  Many sensible bloggers have given this serious consideration due to the perceived financial troubles of Eugene Melnyk (see below), but those issues (even if true) won’t get in the way of signing Alfredsson.

–Travis Yost (who unfortunately is still floating Mika Zibanejad trade rumours because the Sens have “too many centers”) wonders about Melnyk’s financial woes:

questionable finances from Biovail litigation, divorce hearings

Creating an apparently self-imposed 50 million team salary cap (according to Ken Warren) and trying to jive this with Melnyk’s boisterous statements early on in his regime about spending money in order to have success.  I think anything Eugene has ever said needs to be with a grain of salt (certainly his divorce won’t creating the kind of financial distress that will affect the team)–as Travis points out the team tried to land Rick Nash just last year, so what limits are there really?  Travis believes it hurts their efforts in the free agent market, but how many marquee players want to come to Ottawa irrespective of the money they have available?  Not many methinks.

-One thing I’m glad Travis pointed out (in the link above) is how similar The Ottawa Sun and The Ottawa Citizen‘s coverage of the Sens tends to be–sometimes to the point of wondering if there’s a real difference between the two.

-Speaking of Travis, he illustrates that (at least this year) the money spent on goaltending seems to have no correlation to performance (or, at least, save percentage).  I like the idea, although it would have been better if he’d included a similar chart for goaltenders not making top dollar for comparison’s sake.

–Ian Altenbaugh believes the 2013 draft is one of the best ever (Tim Murray described it as average); he doesn’t include Ottawa as either a winner or a loser for their picks.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

July 2, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Reviewing the 2013 NHL Entry Draft

In what was described as an average draft with a consensus on who the top-four players got jumbled as Seth Jones fell to the fourth-overall pick.  As per usual, precise picks (player X at position X) got hammered among the various draft publications (as well as myself), but there was also a dip in the overall percentage of players predicted to be selected in the draft.  Without further ado, here are the numbers.  Acronyms: EOTS (Eye on the Sens), TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), RLR (Red Line Report), THN (The Hockey News), ISS (International Scouting Service), McK (McKeen’s), CP (Corey Pronman), and THW (The Hockey Writers).

First Round
Player X at position X
TSN/HP: 4
EOTS/FC/THW: 3
McK/ISS/RLR/CP: 2
THN: 1
Players picked for the round
EOTS/TSN: 25
McK/HP/FC/THW: 24
CP/THN/ISS/RLR: 22

This is pretty similar to last year, just slightly lower (although I improved).  The biggest surprise pick was Marko Dano (with Emile Poirer the next most).  Adam Erne was the most surprising player to fall out of the round.

Second Round
Exact
TSN: 3
EOTS: 1
All others: 0
Round
TSN: 20
EOTS: 19
McK: 18
THN: 17
RLR/FC/THW: 15
HP: 14
ISS: 12
CP: 9

A solid round (except for CP, who did not have a good draft day), but it was not a sign of things to come.  Given how few exact picks there are, I didn’t continue tracking them beyond this point.   The biggest surprise pick was Tyler Bertuzzi (Remi Elie the next most).

Third Round (minus TSN)
Round
McK: 13
THN/HP: 10
FC: 9
EOTS: 8
ISS/CP: 7
THW: 5
RLR: 3

Overager Mattias Janmark-Nylen was the first unranked player taken in the draft (RLR did suggest he might go), with Kurtis Gabriel quickly following.  Highest rising ranked pick was Keegan Kanzig (Taylor Cammarata takes second in that category).  Oliver Bjorkstrand tumbled down to near the bottom of this round.

Fourth Round (minus THN)
RLR/HP: 7
McK/ISS: 5
CP/THW: 4
FC/EOTS: 3

Felix Gerard, Tobias Lindberg, and Stephon Williams were the unranked players taken.  Highest riser was Ryan Segalla (David Pope was the next highest).  Ryan Fitzgerald was finally taken at the back end of the round.

Fifth Round (minus McK and THW)
RLR: 7
HP: 6
ISS/FC/CP/EOTS: 4

Kristers Gudlevskis, Evan Campbell, Terrance Amorosa, Fabrice Herzog, and Matej Paulovic were unranked players taken.  Highest riser was Tucker Poolman (Blake Heinrich is the next highest).  Eric Roy tumbled down to the middle of this round.

Sixth Round
ISS/HP: 3
FC/CP/EOTS: 2
RLR: 1

A bucket-load of unranked players were taken here (10): Joshua Brown, Ben Storm, Emil Pettersson, Tim Harrison, Chris Leblanc, Merrick Madsen, Alan Quine, Santeri Saari, Mike Williamson, and Anton Blidh.  Highest riser was Zach Leslie (Tommy Veilleux was the next highest).  Blaine Byron fell to the back end of this round.

Seventh Round
FC: 5
RLR: 3
HP/CP: 2
ISS/EOTS: 1

Another pile of unranked players were taken (12): Aleksi Makela, Wade Murphy, Joel Vermin, Brenden Kichton, David Drake, Jedd Soleway, John Gilmour, Hampus Melen, Janne Juvonen, Emil Galimov, Anthony Brodeur, and Mitchell Dempsey.  No real high risers in the seventh round, but Greg Chase came close to falling out of the draft.

All Rounds (I’ve excluded TSN, THN, McK, and THW because they didn’t predict the entire draft)
HP: 66 (31%)
EOTS: 64 (30%)
FC: 62 (29%)
RLR: 58 (27%)
ISS: 54 (25%)
CP: 50 (23%)

Congratulations to HP which (in the four years I’ve done this) has never been ahead in this category (usually middle of the pack).  These are actually good numbers, although the bulk of them (as one would expect) are generated from the first two rounds.  Here’s the listed players taken in the draft irrespective of which round they were taken in (again, only using those who predicted the entire draft):
EOTS/HP: 146/211 (69%)
FC: 145/211 (68%)
RLR: 143/211 (67%)
ISS: 138/211 (65%)
CP: 135/211 (63%)

I managed to keep my streak of being first, albeit tied with HP.  The total represents a 6% drop from last year (but on par with 2011).  Excluding CP (who was not included in creating my raw numbers), ISS lagged behind everyone else for the second year in a row.  So who fell out of the draft?  Here’s a look at the top players who didn’t get picked:

EOTS
89 Lucas Wallmark
97 Stephen Harper
102 Kurt Etchegary

CS NA Forwards
68 Alex Coulombe
72 Kurt Etchegary
76 Spenser Jensen

CS Europe Forwards
16 Lucas Wallmark
27 Victor Ohman
29 Fabio Hogger

CS NA Goaltenders
10 Austin Lotz
11 Michael Giugovaz
15 Shane Starrett

CS Europe Goaltenders
2 Ebbe Sionas
3 Luka Gracnar
5 Ivan Bocharov

RLR
58 Rinat Valiev
67 Sergey Stetsenko
68 Evan Allen

ISS
50 Lucas Wallmark
60 Kayle Doetzel
78 Stephen Harper

FC
65 Viktor Arvidsson
81 Brendan Harms
90 Jamien Yakubowski

HP
53 Pavel Koledov
72 Greg Betzold
79 Juuso Ikonen

CP
46 Juuso Ikonen
55 Viktor Arvidsson
56 Sergei Tolchinsky

McK (152 picks)
80 Amil Krupic
87 Lucas Wallmark
88 Austin Lotz

THW (120 picks)
67 Lucas Wallmark
83 Kurt Etchegary
85 Roberts Lipsbergs

THN (100 picks)
71 Lucas Wallmark
85 Filip Sandberg
89 Kurt Etchegary

All of TSN’s picks were taken, which is no surprise given that only 80 were selected.  The most prominent name not taken is Lucas Wallmark and perhaps the reason he was left behind is his skating (RLR considered him the slowest player in the draft).  Kurt Etchegary also appears regularly above, but injury seems the main reason behind him not being selected.  CS’ European goaltending rankings continue to be largely ignored.  A lot of overage players were picked this year (the most since I’ve been doing this), which is either a comment on the quality of the first-timers or (more likely) that NHL teams prefer a safer bet with later picks.  There was also a significant uptick in the number of unranked/not ranked players taken (32 this year, as opposed to 23 in 2012).  Here’s the range of players picked by nationality (not league):
Canada 96
United States 57
Sweden 23
Finland 11
Russia 8
Czech Republic/Switzerland 4
Austria/Denmark/Slovakia 2
Latvia/Norway 1

In terms of highly ranked players from last year (link above) who went undrafted, Anton Slepyshev (3-88 Edmonton), Patrik Bartosak (5-146 LA), and Henri Ikonen (6-154 TB) were selected this time around (Andrei Makarov was signed by Buffalo as a free agent), while the other 13 players were not.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

July 1, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

Reviewing the Ottawa Senators 2013 NHL Entry Draft

With the draft in the books it’s time to take a look at how the Ottawa Senators did.  Just like the previous three drafts the Sens were unable to land a 2nd round pick.  The normal Murray draft trends continued, as they selected a local kid, a player from the QMJHL (the same as the local in this instance), picked from the WHL, Sweden, US leagues (NCAA and EJHL this year), and picked a player completely off the map (two this time).  I’ve compiled all the scouting reports I can find below.  Here’s who was picked:

1-17 Curtis Lazar (CR/RW, 6’0, DOB 1995, Edmonton (WHL))

3-78 Marcus Hogberg (GL, 6’5, DOB 1994, Linkoping (SuperElit))

4-102 Tobias Lindberg (RW, 6’2, DOB 1995, Djurgarden (SuperElit))

4-108 Ben Harpur (DR, 6’6, DOB 1995, Guelph (OHL))

5-138 Vincent Dunn (CL, 5’11, DOB 1995, Val-d’Or (QMJHL))

6-161 Chris Leblanc (RW, 6’3, DOB 1993, South Shore (EJHL))

6-168 Quentin Shore (CR, 6’2, DOB 1994, Denver (NCAA))

A sum total of five forwards, one defensemen, and one goalie.  Here are the majority of the scouting reports for each player (acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), RLR (Red Line Report), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), McK (Mckeen’s), THN (The Hockey News), CS (Central Scouting), CP (Corey Pronman), and TSN)–I didn’t including THN or TSN’s short blurbs, just their rankings.

Curtis Lazar (WHL 72-38-23-61)
Draft rankings: THN 9, ISS/McK 12, FC 17, TSN 18, CS 20, HP 21, RLR 22, CP 29
Tim Murray: thought getting him at 17 was a steel and see’s him as a future leader (for those who remember his comments prior to the draft it sounds like they had him ranked 13-14).
ISS: lists his shot as excellent, his skating, puck skills, offensive/defensive play, competitiveness, and hockey sense as very good, his physical play as good and his size/strength as average. His strengths are his laser release on his shot, his work ethic, and his ability to rise to the occasion; his weaknesses are his strength and offensive consistency. He’s a very good two-way player with good fire in his game and good offensive capabilities. His potential is as a 2nd/3rd line player with PP potential, could evolve into top line sniper. They compare his style to Dustin Brown. Finally they write: It’s been an up and down season for Lazar in terms of his prospect status. He can be simply dominant and the best player on the ice at times, but he can also fall into long lapses where the offensive potential is nowhere to be found. Even so, he is consistently an effective player, who plays with good determination and high skill. He can grind with players much larger than himself, has very good smooth hands and can shoot the lights out from almost anywhere on the ice. He’s not the biggest kid, but he plays without fear or trepidation. The big knock so far has been in high exposure events (such as CHL TP game and Canada U18 evaluation camp) he has looked very average.
FC: Strengths: Lazar is a defensively strong forward with good speed and goal scoring ability. He possesses good quickness out the gate, has good mobility and turning ability, even at top speed. He’s a dynamic skater who has powerful legs and pretty solid acceleration. Lazar uses a wide balanced stance when protecting the puck and is hard to knock off stride and while he won’t blow the doors off of anyone, is tough to knock off the puck. He gets himself in good position to shoot, finding holes offensively, where he can unleash both a hard wrist or slap shot. He also has a very quick backhand in his shooting arsenal as well as a deadly one-timer. Is a killer from the slot-in with his great release and knows when, where and how to put pucks on net. Lazar isn’t afraid to deke to finish off plays from in close, either. He’s not just a shooter as his puck distribution and vision are superb and makes some excellent passes including quick cross-crease dishes on the backhand in tight to the net, multi-zone stretch passes from his own zone and soft saucer passes to streaking linemates. His passes have good velocity and are usually right on the tape. While he does have pretty good hands, he is not a real flashy puck dangling forward who will try to go end-to-end much if at all. He’s gritty, plays very physical when the situation calls for it and is versatile in that he can play on a skilled line as well as on a line with two very big and physical players. He bangs and crashes regularly along the walls, takes hits to make plays and shows the leadership and smarts that is rare for a player this age. He’s a true hockey player and a leader. He’ll be a glue guy in the NHL and a good guy in the room as a heart and soul player. He shows great inner drive, is a hard worker and displays great character, serving as an assistant captain as a 17-year-old on a veteran team. He will one day do that at the NHL level. Lazar plays with high energy and good intensity each and every shift. He has his head on a swivel each and every shift and his positioning in his own zone and in the neutral zone is fantastic. He is very good at reading the play and taking away lanes with his body and stick. Lazar will be one of the safest bets to make the Show out of this draft class as he is almost a guarantee to make an impression in one way or another. Weaknesses: Lazar is a total defensive first player who does not take risks in the name of offense or to generating a scoring chance. While that is not necessarily a bad thing, it does reflect in his offensive numbers in junior and his perceived NHL offensive upside. He has not really shown much in the way of offensive creativity but instead just taking what he is given to produce opportunities. Is he a very good third line shutdown centre who can play your PK as well as add a little offense to your team or is he a great twoway second line center who can do it all and boost his offensive contributions? Scout’s quote: “Some label Lazar as a great second or third liner, which tends to come with a negative stigma when people think first round talent. But, if by second or third liner, you mean a guy that can score 20-plus goals consistently, be a devastating weapon on the forecheck, and play well in all areas of the ice? Sure, I’ll take him in the first round any day of the week.” NHL Potential: Top Nine Two-Way Forward.
HP: Lazar entered this season with a lot of hype surrounding his game. His play without the puck was very impressive for such a young player, while his offensive game was starting to improve. He has not been able to put up the offensive numbers that usually garner the amount of attention that he is getting now, but there is certainly potential in his game to be an effective 2 way forward in the NHL one day. The best attribute of Lazar’s game is his play without the puck. He is always in such good position in his own end, and is very strong along the boards. He is always out on the ice in crucial defensive situations, and will positively impact the game in some way. He fearlessly blocks shots to help his team win games, and seems to be able to consistently be in the shooting lane. His coverage down low is very good, and displays good anticipation to be able to knock away passes and tie up opponents. Offensively, Lazar has a very impressive wrist shot. He has a nice quick release off the rush in speed. He is not much of a playmaker, and most of his offensive contribution will come in the form of goals and scoring chances. He is able to get into good position in dangerous scoring areas, and make himself available for passes. Lazar has a bit of work to do with his hands around the net, as he could further develop his scoring touch. He has also shown that he is a streaky scorer. He may go a long stretch of not picking up any point, then go on a long streak where he seems to score whenever he is around the net. Lazar will have to be able to consistently put up points to be a more dangerous player as a pro. Lazar is by no means a slow player, but he does have some work to do in terms of his acceleration. It takes him a bit longer to reach his good top end speed, and it inhibits him from being a more dangerous player than he could be. Any team that is looking for a heart and soul, future captain will not have to look further than Curtis Lazar. He may not put up more than 50 points a year in his prime, but he is able to impact the game in more ways than just offensively. He plays the game with such a passion, that it will be contagious within the dressing room. If he can continue to play a 200 ft game while improving his strength and speed and chip in offensively, he will put up a long NHL career.
McK: a responsible and diligent two-way forward .. makes valuable contributions with or without the puck – exploiting sharp hockey sense and good awareness .. powerful, balanced skater when in flight, however, could benefit from additional explosiveness .. hands are more quick and strong rather than finely skilled .. packs a hard shot whose release is both fast and fluid .. dangerous when trailing the rush with speed and firing a one-timer full bore from the slot .. steadily maturing and progressing as a playmaker .. now assesses options before joining the fray and will re-direct pucks to teammates instead of taking low-percentage shots .. should improve his finesse skills and puckhandling in traffic .. can move the puck however as he possesses adept one-touch skills and an ability to execute at a feverish tempo .. can get through defenses with his tenacity – getting key touches on the puck and overwhelming defenders with his speed and persistence .. displays a defensive conscience and positional maturity that belies his age .. neither big nor overtly mean, yet fiercely competitive with deceiving toughness .. continuously engaged both mentally and physically .. comes back deep in strong support positions – and will deliver stiff hits throughout his own zone .. functions most effectively in more of a secondary role – and not front-and-center in the attack.
CP: Lazar is a well-rounded forward, with the benefit of having one of the smallest risk factors in this draft (in terms of probability of becoming an NHL player). He is an above-average skater who can flash plus ability in that area. He covers a lot of ice due to his tremendous work ethic, as he is always moving his feet. He can change gears quickly, and he picks up speed well. Despite being a tad undersized, he is a solid, physical player who is good on the forecheck. He is not afraid to drive the net, either. He is one of the best defensive forwards in this draft, and is very good in that area for a player his age. He takes checks very well, knows how to position himself in his own end, and does not tend to hurt his own team. Similar to the prospects preceding him on this list, there is debate over his offensive ability. I see him as a player with above-average offensive skill, but one scout I talked to said that he is shy in displaying offensive creativity, and that he tends to rely on safe plays. He has solid hands, good instincts, and a very good shot, but his offensive progression will determine what kind of NHL player will be.

Marcus Hogberg (SuperElit 2.41 .917)
Draft rankings: CS 4, McK 71, TSN honourable mention, FC 153, RLR 159, CP 196
Tim Murray: needs coaching, to get stronger, and to mature; believed he was the best goalie in Sweden.
Pierre Dorion: raw but athletic and should be the starting goaltender in the Allsvenskan next season.
FC: Hogberg is a big goaltender who has the size and coverage that NHL teams covet. He will need to improve his lateral quickness as well as his consistency. He does show good upside, but is a project prospect that will need considerable time to round into his game. McK: big, poised goalie with sound technical abilities, plus sharp reflexes .. determined and competitive – yet plays calm and controlled – does not force plays and overcommit .. reads and anticipates the play well .. adopts a progressive Swedish butterfly style .. a massive frame allows him to stay deeper and display a wider stance in order to bait shooters to aim low .. will challenge shooters though, and make saves at the top of his crease depending on the situation – his depth being referred to as ‘non static’.. uses his size to his advantage – stays tall in the butterfly with a straight back in order to optimize net coverage .. proficient at keeping himself square to the puckcarrier .. agile and balanced on his feet – both in stance and moving sideways .. smooth and proficient sliding laterally – or when recovering to skates – maintains a strong seal to the ice .. must guard against over-sliding or excess movements in the down position, which can expose unnecessary space over the shoulders .. shades of Nashville’s Pekka Rinne – in the ‘European’ mold.

Tobias Lindberg (SuperElit 43-9-13-22)
Draft rankings: CS 99
Tim Murray: doesn’t know much about it (hit or miss pick), but the European scouts like his potential.
Pierre Dorion: big winger who has speed and skill; a good project.
Vaclav Burda: He’s a kid who was not selected or ranked very high — he was pretty low — but we feel pretty good about his potential, like Colin Greening in our organization. He’s a big guy who can skate, he drives the net, he’s not high end intelligent with the puck but he drives the net with speed and strength and we see these tools that down the road he could play on the big team. He has already played a few games for the big Djurgarden team which is the second highest Swedish league — the Allsvenskan, but mostly he played in the junior league. Next year he’ll be playing either with the men’s team or a junior team. He’s not (physically) mature, he’s got lots of room to build up and we believe that big body might be hard to play against some day.

Ben Harpur (OHL 67-3-12-15)
Draft rankings: ISS 84, CS 101, FC 111, HP 119, CP 129, RLR 136
Tim Murray: leery on picking defensemen after the second round, but scouts believe he’s a late bloomer.
Pierre Dorion: improved a lot through the second half.
ISS: his size/strength is excellent, puck skills and shot good, while his skating and hockey sense are average.  They add: He is clearly a stay-at-home defenseman Harpur’s size is what first jumps out in his game; he shows incredible raw potential with his continually growing frame. Defensively he possesses an active stick and does well containing the opposition low in his zone. He makes a good first pass to exit the defensive zone and is a decent skater given his size. Definitely needs to get more physical given his size, gives up the offensive zone blueline too quickly and his gap was too much which means he isn’t a confident defenseman right now.
FC [consistently misspelled his name as “Harper”]: Harpur is a gangly shutdown defenseman who skates well for a big man. His stride is long and smooth and his lateral mobility is impressive. His transitions are fluid and he does not lose momentum. He needs to improve on his first step as he develops. His hands are soft and he is confident when he has the puck. He is not overly creative with the puck, but he makes strong consistent plays when he has the puck. He consistently makes crisp tape-to-tape passes breakout passes, which lead to quick transition hockey for his team. He has great vision, and makes high percentage passes rarely giving the puck away. He poses a heavy shot from the point. He is good at finding shooting lanes to get pucks to the net, leading to rebound chances for his teammates. He plays a very physical in your face style of hockey. He finished his checks with enthusiasm, without taking himself out of position, and plays the body hard in his own zone. Harpur plays hard in the corners, and makes life miserable for opposing forwards. He shows a high hockey IQ and makes smart decisions. His defensive game is where he really excels on the ice. He is hard to beat one-on-one, and he drives opposing forwards wide never giving them an easy path to the net. His gap control in off the charts, as he surprises opposing forwards who thing they have time. His anticipation in his own end is good. NHL Potential: Bottom-pairing defensive defenseman.
HP: Ben was selected in the 3rd round of the 2011 OHL Priority Selection Draft by the Guelph Storm out of the Niagara Falls Canucks Minor Midget program. Ben made the Storm as a 16 year old but received limited action due to the depth on the Storm blueline. Harpur had a steady sophomore season for the Storm. He is a big bodied presence on the blue line and is good at using his size to lean on smaller forwards and clear out the front of the net. He needs to work at bringing a consistent physical presence to his game and finish more checks when given the opportunity. He is a good skater despite being such a big guy and has adequate speed to jump into the offensive rush when available. However, he has struggled in one on one situations at times due to a late pivot. He is good at using his long stick to keep opponents to the outside and is effective at getting into passing lanes and intercepting passes. Harpur is sometimes caught standing around in the defensive zone and needs to consistently pressure opposing forwards rather than let the play come to him. He takes good angles when he does pressure forwards and is good at keeping his body to the net so that driving lanes are kept to a minimum. He occasionally steps up and effectively holds the offensive blue line strong but is sometimes slow transitioning from forwards to backwards and would benefit from improved foot speed. Harpur is good at getting his shots on net through traffic but needs to work at walking the line to create better shooting lanes. Ben shows flashes of potential but also needs to further improve and become more comfortable in his size. He will need to become a better skater and play a more tenacious game at his size. He does a variety of things well but nothing that stands out as exceptional. Harpur is a player we see going outside the first few rounds and selected to become a reliable defensive defenseman at the next level. One that doesn’t play huge minutes but can be relied upon in his own end, and to hopefully play a penalty killing role as well.

Vincent Dunn (QMJHL 53-25-27-52)
Draft rankings: THN 87, HP/CP 94, FC 96, McK honourable mention, ISS 122, RLR 130
Tim Murray: likes that he’ll be playing for Gatineau where it’s easy to keep an eye on him and where he has a good coach.
Pierre Dorion: agitator, good skill, needs to work on his skating.
ISS: his skating and hockey sense are very good, his puck skills and shot are good, while his size/strength is average.  They write: Dunn has exploded out of the gates offensively for the Val d’Or Foreurs and has eclipsed his 13 points last year with 25 goals and 27 assists in just 53 games played. Dunn is a blue collar type, defensive forward and agitator. He works hard, has a good forecheck, finishes checks, and is relentless in all three zones. He is never going to be a big offensive contributor at the next level, but he does projects as very good bottom six utility/role player.
FC: Dunn is a shift disturber who has some underrated offensive skill. He moves well with good quickness but just average straight-line speed. He shows decent balance and agility but could use overall improvement to his skating ability. He is reliable in all zones and thinks the game well. He needs to be more consistent shift-to-shift and use his shot more often. His shot has some pop to it but he needs to get it off his stick quicker as it has a painfully slow release. He makes his biggest impact offensively around the crease looking for rebounds and garbage goals. He has limited vision and puck distribution skills. Dunn works the boards well as he has a stocky strength to him, gets position on his opponent, uses leverage and strength to come out with the puck on his stick. He’s often in the right position on the ice to breakup opponents attack by getting himself into passing lanes, and is strong defensively despite his small stature. He’s willing to drop down in front of a point shot. He’s a hard hitter and relentless forechecker who is not afraid to get gritty or even dirty in an attempt to draw penalties. He’s also ready to drop the gloves to back up his game but is not a very strong fighter. Has a Steve Ott kind of two-way in-your-face type of presence. NHL Potential: top-nine center.
HP: Vincent Dunn came into the QMJHL at 16 years old in 2011-2012 and made a name for himself by playing a rarely seen aggressive and intense game, never backing down from anybody. In fact, in his first two season, Dunn has accumulated close to 200 penalty minutes while being a pretty good hockey player. Dunn displays a great level of energy when he is on the ice which makes him very noticeable, rarely taking a shift off. He will try to get under the skin of his opponents, bantering after whistles, starting scrums, giving a little more on the body check and just knocking them off their game. Although he is not the biggest player at 5’11”, Dunn will rarely refuse a fight and he is a proven fighter in that realm. He is a player you don’t like to come up against because of his level of competitiveness and associated intensity will expose a soft player. He doesn’t necessary lay out the big hit often, but will be physical on the forecheck with high energy. He has an above-average top speed and great power in his first few strides to quickly reach max speed. He is not an East-West player by any means, but has quick feet and will use them to gain time and space laterally. He has quick hands and more than a decent skill set that he uses well in tight spaces to get pucks around the net to generate a scoring chance or simply keep the puck in battles. A strong player, Dunn has good puck protection and his tenacity makes him tough to knock off the puck. He will score goals around the net, jumping on rebounds but he also scores some solid goals off the rush. His offensive vision is impressive, finding teammates quickly and executing skilled setups on the rush. He is also effective when delaying the play because of those good passing skills. Defensively, Dunn has never stopped progressing, working hard and supporting his defensemen well. He needs to play a better positional game as he tends to be a little too aggressive at times. Dunn can overreact and be undisciplined also, he needs to have control of his temper. His hits can be dangerous at times. Dunn doesn’t possess a big frame or high end offensive potential for the next level, but his intensity and character mixed with his above-average abilities make him a very interesting pick come draft day.
McK: Surprised with a 25-goal breakout sophomore outburst, although his play regressed over the back half .. hurt the team with costly, undisciplined penalties in the playoffs – and also damaged his stock with a two-game suspension in November for inappropriate comments – deemed by the ref as ‘racial taunts, gestures and slurs’ .. skilled undersized agitator .. plays a pugilistic style aimed at taking opponents off their game .. willing combatant – took six major penalties last season .. aggressive forechecker – finishes checks assertively despite a smaller stature .. packs a good accurate wristshot which he can unload at full flight .. choppy skater – propelled by a short compact stride and busy feet .. sluggish in startup and acceleration – misses a separation gear .. does get the most out of his speed once in motion – pumping his feet frantically to generate power .. agility and balance need improvement .. loses momentum in turns – not that stable on crossovers – which have a running quality .. skilled stickhandler and passer – strong on the puck .. does the little things – like going hard to the net and following up rebounds .. takes hits to make plays and competes defensively – albeit can be guilty of soft checking postures .. also struggles to keep his emotions in check which translates into bad penalties.
CP: Dunn had a productive season from a statistical standpoint, although it must be noted that he played on a loaded offensive squad in Val-d’Or. He is a multi-dimensional player, and he can play center or wing effectively. He also has defensive value, and although he is a little small, he will show a good physical game, with offensive abilities. Dunn has above-average hands, as well as a good offensive hockey sense. He tends to set up his teammates well. He is a solid skater as well. He may not have a powerful stride, but he does have a good first few steps, and he moves his feet quickly. Dunn has a lot of energy to his game. He will drive the net, make quick decisions, and engage when he needs to. Despite these positive qualities, it is questionable what his role projects to be in the NHL. His offensive skill is not overwhelming enough to project as a scorer, and due to his size, he will carry questions about his defensive projection. Despite this, he possesses good qualities, and if his development goes well, he will provide value for an NHL team.

Chris Leblanc (EJHL 44-13-20-33)
Draft rankings: unranked
Tim Murray: late bloomer they think they can develop. Committed to Merrimack (NCAA)
Pierre Dorion: big two-way player.

Quentin Shore (NCAA 39-10-9-19)
Draft rankings: CP 179
Pierre Dorion: smart hockey player, competes, two-way; a gamble.
Here’s the ISS scouting report from last year (2012 draft): A very impressive two-way performance during the U18s was just icing on the cake, Shore has consistently impressed ISS scouts during the season and often in a different manner each game. He has a very well rounded skill set that allows him to fit any mould required of him. His faceoff skills and defensive presence were integral in USA’s run for the Gold during the U18 tournament. More goal scorer than playmaker, decent hands and quick release. A very effective shot-blocker on the PK unit that is adept at getting in the shooting lanes and limiting rebounds. Still working on game to game consistency and is an unpolished long-term project.
Here’s McK’s from last year: Quentin plays a very similar game to his brothers, as he is a smart player who makes valuable plays that help out in all three zones. His hockey sense and shot are arguably his best assets, as his one-timer explodes off his stick and his keen hockey sense allows him to stay in close proximity of the puck. He has the innate ability to turn his body off the puck to make a defenseman go the other way and then executes subtle one-touch passes that help in the transition. Shore needs to work on his skating since he offers little to no explosive power in his stride. He’s a versatile player who meshes well with any set of linemates due to his work ethic and ability to process the game. He is a highly coachable player who is loaded with character and has healthy bloodlines.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

July 1, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 19 Comments

Senators News: June 29th

-Here are my predictions for who the Sens will draft.

-As expected, Daniel Alfredsson has decided to return for another season.  It would have been a surprise if he decided not to come back, so there’s no need to re-assess the Sens depth going into the fall.

–Joe Yerdon believes Chicago’s buyouts of Rostislav Olesz (Jacques Martin’s best contract ever) and Steve Montador mean that Marian Hossa isn’t going anywhere.

-I agree with Lyle Richardson that Bryan Bickell and Pascal Dupuis are likely to be retained by their respective teams.

–Adnan speculates on what defensemen the Sens could target if they decide to add a veteran to the blueline.  He throws out Varada-favourite Grant Clitsome, former Leaf Ian White, former Sabre Jordan Leopold, not-quite-NHL-calibre Adam Pardy, and Edmonton-reject Kurtis Foster.  Adnan sums up his list succinctly:

Not an overly fantastic free agent class this year.

That puts it mildly; I wouldn’t sign any of them.  All of these players are better than Mike Lundin, but that’s not the standard we want to keep.  Adnan prefers Leopold among the group, but if I had to pick I’d go with Clitsome.

–Ryan Kennedy includes comments from scouts on 42 different draft-eligible players and I highly recommend reading them.

–Brian Costello does a less sophisticated, first-round focussed source-blend for a new top-30 for the draft.

–Allan Muir offers his mock draft and has the Sens picking Alexander Wennberg with their pick.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 29, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Ottawa 2013 Draft Predictions

Here are my predictions for Ottawa’s selections–I made rough guesses in my overall look at the draft, but with that leg work completed I’ve had time to take a closer look at who the Sens will take.  Ottawa is a difficult team to predict, regularly taking players who are off the radar (Emil Sandin in 2008, Brad Peltz in 2009, Marcus Sorensen in 2010, Jordan Fransoo in 2011, Tim Boyle in 2012, and so on).  The best fans can do is look at player rankings and pay attention to what the organisation is saying and doing beforehand.  This year the mantra of best-player-available has overwhelmed any notion of a positional preference (although they rarely pick goaltenders).  Last year when I went through this exercise I picked 2 of the 7 players selected–hopefully that can be improved upon, but it’s worth keeping in mind that if you predict 25% of the draft accurately (player X at position X) you’ve done very, very well.

The only firm trend the Sens have had under Bryan Murray is not picking from Europe unless it’s from Sweden.  I don’t think this is an actual “rule”, but clearly their scouting is strong in Sweden and circumstances have worked against Finnish or Czech or any other European league.  We can be assured there will be players from the CHL, US leagues, and Sweden taken, but not preclude other possibilities.

The only serious attempt I’ve seen at picking the entire draft comes from The Hockey Writers who, like I did last year, propose a likely candidate and then alternatives.  I’ll note their predictions as I go through my own.

1-17 – Mock drafts are all over the place for this selection, but we know Adam Erne (RW 6’1  QMJHL) and Kerby Rychel (LW 6’1 OHL) were part of a foursome brought to Ottawa and with the many rumours surrounding Samuel Morin (DL 6’6 QMJHL) I suspect he was part of that group.  At least one of the three should be available when the Sens make their pick (I actually think all three will be), but if all are available who do they like more?  I keep hearing Morin so I have to go with him.  THW offers five possibilities echoing only Erne above; the others are Hunter Shinkaruk, Alexander Wennberg, Frederik Gauthier, and Curtis Lazar.  They prefer Shinkaruk of the bunch, but I don’t think he, Wennberg, or Lazar will drop that far.
3-78 – Niklas Hansson (DR 6’0 Swe Jr), Carl Dahlstrom (DL 6’4 Swe Jr), and Gustav Olofsson (DL 6’2 USHL) are the possibilities for the Sens here by my estimation.  I think puck-mover Hansson is the most likely pick.  THW suggests Myles Bell, Matt Buckle, or Marc-Olivier Roy (preferring Bell).  I don’t think Roy will be available at this point.
4-102 – Kurt Etchegary (CL 5’11 QMJHL), Jared Hauf (DL 6’5 WHL), and J. C. Lipon (RW 6’0 WHL) are my options for this pick.  I think the Sens will go for the speedy Etchegary.  THW suggests Tyler Hill, Will Butcher, or Mason Geertsen.  Hill is the only one I believe will be available this late.
4-108 – Cole Cassels (CR 6’0 OHL), Tyler Lewington (DR 6’1 WHL), and Ben Harpur (DL 6’5 OHL) are my options, with the nod going to the right-handed Lewington.  THW suggests Remi Elie, Gage Ausmus, Viktor Arvidsson, or Greg Chase, but of these I think only Arvidsson will be available.
5-138 – Blaine Byron (CL 6’0 OJHL), Kayle Doetzel (DR 6’2 WHL), and Jaimen Yakubowski (LW 5’9 WHL) are my potentials, with Smiths Falls’ own Bryon being my pick.  THW suggests Brendan Burke, Marcus Hogberg, Evan Cowley, Antoine Bibeau, or Evan Allen.  That’s four goalies and I don’t see the Sens picking one even if they are available, but Allen is an option for that pick.
6-161 – Brody Silk (LW 6’0 OHL), Luke Johnson (LW 5’11 USHL), and Nolan De Jong (DL 6’2 BCHL) are the potential picks, with De Jong getting my pick (the Sens like to pick long-term, college-bound players with later picks).  THW largely throws up their hands for this and the next pick, including some of the names above and adding in Peter Trainor, Jesse Lees, Miro Aaltonen, Steven Harper, Joose Antonen, Scott Oke, Albert Yarullin, Mitchell Theorot, and Brenden Kichton.  This list is so broad and non-specific it doesn’t warrant analysis.
6-168 – Jerret Smith (DR 6’2 WHL), Robin Norell (DL 5’11 SHL), and Jeff Corbett (DR 6’1 OHL) are my options, with Smith getting the nod.

To summate: Samuel Morin, Niklas Hansson, Kurt Etchegary, Tyler Lewington, Blaine Byron, Nolan De Jong, and Jerret Smith are my picks (so three changes from my big draft article, with Morin replacing Morrissey, Lewington replacing Cassels, and De Jong replacing Silk).  If my predictions are correct the Sens would leave the draft with five defensemen and two forwards–a seemingly unlikely combination, but it would shore up a soft spot in their depth.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 28, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Senators News: June 27th

-Today I posted my analysis and predictions for the 2013 NHL draft.  This is a detailed overview of the entire draft.  I will narrow the scope for just the Sens in a separate article, but I do include a preliminary look at who they might draft with each pick.

–The Raaymaker jumps on Elliotte Friedman’s comment yesterday that the Lightning are trying to move Ryan Malone.  He makes a pitch for the Sens to get the 33-year old forward who is coming off a rough, injury-filled season.  Malone has one year left on his deal and if a pick is thrown in I’d be fine with the move.  I do have to wonder if the Lightning will part with him though–with both Lecavalier and Malone off the roster the team will have players like Nate Thompson and B. J. Crombeen on their second line…yikes!

–Jamie Neugebauer believes the Sens will take Ryan Pulock with their first pick.

–Matt Brigidi notes that Columbus is willing to move any or all of its first round selections (14, 19, and 27) via trade, but I’m not sure they pick high enough to interest the Sens.

–Travis Yost takes a look at what stats actually matter in the NHL and he dismisses the traditional ones (raw hit numbers, PK percentage, etc) to say only puck possession really indicate how a team is doing.  He’s right that traditional TV media simply ignores Corsi and Fenwick numbers, either because it doesn’t fit the clichés they grew up with or some other reason.  It’s worth keeping in mind that many commentators aren’t exactly analytical (Hockey Night in Canada and Sportsnet in particular come to mind), and are generally on-screen to provide entertainment rather than insight (ala Don Cherry).

–Larry Brooks writes about how the NHL closed a potential buyout loophole:

The league would deem re-signing a player following a trade and a subsequent amnesty buyout as circumvention, and thus would not register the contract. It is believed the Lightning and Maple Leafs had discussed such a maneuver regarding Vincent Lecavalier [bought out by Tampa today], who has seven years and $45 million remaining on his contract, with the buyout thus worth slightly more than $30 million. The clubs theoretically would have concocted a swap in which Tampa Bay would have sent an asset — perhaps a draft pick — to rolling-in-dough Toronto along with Lecavalier, who would have re-signed a more modest deal with the Lightning after being bought out by the Leafs.

-The Phoenix saga continues and it looks likely that the latest NHL agreement will be rejected by the city, although I’d take comments about Quebec from Bill Daly as simply an attempt to apply pressure ahead of that vote rather than some kind of commitment.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 27, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Analysis and Predictions for the 2013 NHL Entry Draft

With the advent of the NHL salary cap after the 2004-05 lockout, it became paramount for all organisations to invest in their scouting operations and draft well.  Teams could no longer simply buy their way out of trouble or plug holes with expensive free agent talent.  That change has helped drive the cottage industry that is draft prediction, but the wide variety of sources are not created equal and few of those who provide their opinions will reflect on their subsequent accuracy.  It is my purpose here to collate the best sources and provide insight into who will be selected in this year’s upcoming NHL entry draft.

This is my fourth year predicting the draft (beginning with the now defunct Hockey Herald back in 2010).  That year I picked 72% of the entire class (well ahead of other sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (well ahead of my nearest source, which was ISS), and 75% in 2012 (two points up on Red Line Report).  What follows is a continuation of the same analysis.

My method is to take the sum of reliable sources and produce an aggregate number (so player X is ranked 15, 24, and 32, by different sources, those numbers are then averaged).  This gives me a number I can use to compare that player to others.  I then engage in further comparative analysis—for instance, if player X has a higher aggregate score, but player Y has the higher median score, the latter is given the higher position.  Precise predictions (player X at pick #29) are much more difficult (I was 27% last year, which topped my sources).  The first round remains the easiest to predict in terms of who will be picked.

Determining my Sources of Data

While a wide variety of media and bloggers produce draft predictions (especially for the first round), not all are created equal.  My preference is the professional scouting community itself and those sources that they rely on.  For that purpose, The International Scouting Service (ISS), Kyle Woodlief’s Red Line Report (RLR), and Central Scouting (CS) are particularly weighty.  Central Scouting is the NHL’s own scouting service, while ISS and RLR are independent scouting services used within the NHL.  I also give TSN’s Bob McKenzie predictions a lot of weight, as his rankings prove an excellent barometer for draft results.  Unfortunately Bob only focusses on the first two rounds which limits his utility.

Rounding out my sources this year are The Hockey News (THN),  Future Considerations (FC), Hockey Prospects (HP), and McKeen’s (McK).  They provide extensive predictions and are put together by knowledgeable hockey people.  I’ve also looked at Corey Pronman and The Hockey Writers‘ listings as reference points (the reason the latter two aren’t incorporated is that Pronman’s de-emphasis on defensemen and goaltenders isn’t echoed by NHL teams, while the last time I used THW their predictive success lagged well behind everyone else).  These latter sources (along with CS, for reasons explained below) are not used to create the aggregate number (that comes from the other seven sources).

It has to be noted that both ISS and CS have inherent comparative problems.  Central Scouting does not create a master list—players are divided into North American and European skaters, as well as being separated into goalie and skater categories.  ISS separates their goaltenders into a separate ranking (these at least can be loosely incorporated into an aggregate number by using the round they are slotted into).  These drawbacks are part of the reason I load up with the additional data.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there is a difference between assessing who the best player is versus who a team will draft.  Some publications give weight to the latter, while other sources do not.  My purpose here is to slot players where they will be picked rather than assessing who is the best.

Notes

Acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), CS (Central Scouting), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospect), TSN (The Sports Network, specifically Bob McKenzie), THN (The Hockey News), FC (Future Considerations), (McK) McKeen’s , (CP) Corey Pronman, and THW (The Hockey Writers).  I have not designated CS as NA or E, not gone to NAG or EG for goaltenders–those designations apply, but the specifics don’t seem particularly relevant for the purposes of the list.

Ranking depth: CS 385 (210 skaters and 35 goalies in North America along with 130 skaters and 10 goalies in Europe), RLR 315, CP 250, ISS 220 (200 skaters and 20 goaltenders), HP 210, FC 210, McK 120 (plus 32 honourable mentions/sleepers), THN 100, and TSN 75 (plus 5 honourable mentions).  Combined, 379 individual players are considered worthy for selection (so 44% will not be chosen).

The analysis itself: the aggregate is the total score of the player divided by the number of sources ranking that player (this score does not include the CS ranking given the issues detailed above).  When I say a player beats another “head-to-head” or on aggregate I mean that he has a better median score.  This year I’ve also tried to include vagaries like “honorable mentions” and “sleepers” (where they aren’t already part of a numbered list) by slotting them where it seems appropriate (for McKeen’s I put the honourable mentions in the 5th round and the sleepers in the 6th, while I slot Bob McKenzie’s honourables in the 4th round).  I feel this inclusion helps round out the likelihood of players being drafted.

There is an extra 2nd round pick this year as Winnipeg receives a compensatory pick for not signing 2008 1st-round pick Dalton Leveille.  This means the draft (just like last year) will select 211 players.

A final comment: the most obvious struggle for accurate scouting assessment remains players in Europe, who are underrepresented in lists for the obvious reason that it’s more expensive to cover Europe.  A smaller issue is the hard-on some in the scouting community have for players on the US National Development Team.

Ottawa and the Draft

The Sens have the following picks: 1-17, 3-78, 4-102 (acquired in the Ben Bishop trade), 4-108, 5-138, 6-161 (acquired via the Sergei Gonchar deal), and 6-168.  The Sens lost their 2nd round pick when they traded for Bishop, while their 7th round pick was lost in acquiring Rob Klinkhammer.  If there are no trades and the list below is exactly how the draft plays out the Sens would draft: Josh Morrissey, Niklas Hansson, Kurt Etchegary, Cole Cassels, Blaine Byron, Brody Silk, and Jerret Smith.  That would mean four forwards and three defensemen.  The mock drafts from professionals have the Sens picking the following players in the first round: Max Domi (NHL.com), Kerby Rychel (NHL.com), Curtis Lazar (THW), Josh Morrissey (RLR), Alex Wennberg (RLR), Samuel Morin (FC), or Andre Burakowsky (ISS)–with so many names, someone is bound to be right.

First Round

1. Nathan MacKinnon (1.86) – he is not the consensus pick and loses to Jones on aggregate and head-to-head, but given Colorado has said they will not select the blueliner with the first overall pick MacKinnon winds up in first
2. Seth Jones (1.43) – the champ statistically (although only slightly, as 4 out of 7 sources have him first), but with the Avalanche’s public decision he can ascend no higher
3. Jonathan Drouin (2.71) – RLR and THN are the only two sources who see him above this position (no one has him lower); anomalously, CP has him 1st overall
4. Aleksander Barkov (4.71) – despite the close aggregate score with Nichushkin below, he’s ahead by all measures (the Russian factor doesn’t hurt either)
5. Elias Lindholm (5.71) – I am playing the Russian card here as Lindholm loses to Nichushkin on aggregate and head-to-head
6. Valeri Nichushkin (5.00) – Russians typically drop and I’m assuming a slight dip here; he’s the last player whose selections are all in the top-ten
7. Sean Monahan (7.71) – only McK’s (11) has him outside the top-ten and he’s comfortably ahead of Nurse
8. Darnell Nurse (8.86) – only HP (16) has him outside the top-ten
9. Nikita Zadorov (10.71) – solidly slotted here, but the Russian factor has to be kept in mind
10. Max Domi (12.57) – ISS (25) is not a fan of the diminutive forward, but even throwing out that score he falls behind Zadorov
11. Rasmus Ristolainen (13.71) – although he loses out to Wennberg on aggregate he beats him head-to-head; low scores from THN and McK are at odds with my other sources
12. Bo Horvat (13.86) – he also loses out to Wennberg on aggregate, but he has a higher threshold and head-to-head it’s a virtual dead heat; FC lowballs him (23)
13. Alexander Wennberg (13.57) – solid marks across the board with a very tight range (11-19)
14. Hunter Shinkaruk (16.71) – this is a bit of a gut feel because Lazar wins on aggregate and head-to-head, but the more professional sources see him ahead (RLR, CS, TSN, with only ISS putting Lazar just one spot up); FC ranks him in the top-ten (9)
15. Curtis Lazar (15.86) – gets one top-ten nod (THN)
16. Ryan Pulock (17.71) – pretty consistent ratings except for HP’s (30)
17. Josh Morrissey (19.29) – one of the last players to only get first-round selections, his number are hurt by TSN (28)
18. Samuel Morin (21.00) – widely varying scores (10-35), with a pair of second-round slots from ISS and FC; he’s the last player on this list with a top-ten selection (McK)
19. Adam Erne (21.57) – one second-round selection (ISS 37), while RLR puts him just outside the top-ten (11)
20. Anthony Mantha (22.43) – a second-round pick by RLR (33), TSN has him highest (15)
21. Kerby Rychel (23.43) – the last player with only first-round selections, his range is very narrow (20-28)
22. Valentin Zykov (23.57) – despite the close score with Rychel above he loses head-to-head; he does have a higher range (HP is his peak at 13), but he also has two second-round rankings (THN and McK)
23. Zachary Fucale (24.14) – the top-ranked goaltender in the draft, like Zykov above him he has two second-round selections (RLR and FC)
24. Frederik Gauthier (24.29) – a virtual dead heat with Fucale above, he still loses out head-to-head; only one second-round vote for Gauthier (RLR)
25. Andre Burakowsky (26.43) – his score is thrown off by HP (46), he has a pair of #16 picks from ISS and McK; both RLR and HP see him in the second round
26. Ryan Hartman (26.71) – boosted by RLR’s high ranking (14), he has two second-round picks (ISS and McK)
27. Robert Hagg (27.57) – a virtual dead heat with Mueller below. but RLR’s low ranking (49) is a big reason why; THN has him at 12, while ISS, HP, and the aforementioned RLR put him in the second round
28. Mirco Mueller (27.86) – wide divergence of opinions on him (16-40) with TSN, THN, and McK ranking him highly while ISS, FC, and HP have him in the second round
29. Morgan Klimchuk (32.57) – although he loses to Bowey on aggregate he has more first round selections (4) and his number is thrown off by ISS’ low ranking (47); THN and McK also see him as a second-rounder
30. J. T. Compher (34.29) – behind both Bowey and Petan on aggregate, his number is hurt by McK’s low ranking (56) whose elimination puts him ahead of the former, while I think Petan’s size is going to drop him out of the first round; Compher has three first-round rankings (RLR, ISS, and FC

There are 18 players who appear on everyone’s list with a wide divergence thereafter, but none of the potential first rounders are truly off-the-wall (which is as expected).  Honourable mentions: Madison Bowey’s score would normally have included him above.  Here are the other players who also had first round selections (a total of 13 players):
Four (1): Nic Petan (HP, FC, ISS, RLR)
Three (3): Chris Bigras (HP, McK, ISS), Emile Poirer (RLR, McK, HP), Ian McCoshen (THN, ISS, McK)
Two (5): Madison Bowey (HP, ISS), Steve Santini (ISS, RLR), Jacob de la Rose (TSN, THN), Michael McCarron (ISS, THN), Tommy Vannelli (RLR, McK)
One (4): Shea Theodore (FC), Dillon Heatherington (ISS), Connor Hurley (FC), William Carrier (RLR)
Bowey (at 15 from HP) is the highest ranking among the players not included in my first round list.  The biggest outlier among the players is Carrier whose aggregate is well behind the others.  For CP, Pavel Buchnevich and Artturi Lehkonen are also first-rounders, while THW has Laurent Dauphin on their list.

Second Round

31. Madison Bowey (31.57) – has two first-round selections (HP with the high of 15) and handily beats everyone below head-to-head (the low is THN at 44)
32. Nic Petan (33.14) – the pint-sized prospect has four-first round picks (HP has the high of 25), but I think his second round score is correct as smaller players almost always slide in the draft (McK with the low of 46)
33. Chris Bigras (34.71) – handily ahead of the players behind him, has three first-round picks (HP with the high at 26; RLR the low at 48)
34. Emile Poirer (40.71)- his rating is thrown off by ISS (79); he has three-first round rankings (RLR with the high of 21)
35. Jacob de la Rose (36.86) – loses to Santini on aggregate, but beats him head-to-head; TSN and THN have his high (29) while FC has the low (53)
36. Steve Santini (36.71) – well-regarded by ISS (17) he gets a third-round slot from THN (65)
37. Ian McCoshen (43.71) – his score is thrown off by FC’s ranking (84); he’s the last player to receive three first-round picks (THN with the high of 26)
38. Michael McCarron (40.43) – loses to Theodore on aggregate, but his score is thrown by RLR (79); ISS has the high (23)
39. Tommy Vannelli (47.43) – the final player with two first-round selections (RLR with the high at 28), his score suffers from ISS (who puts him in the fourth round at 96)
40. Shea Theodore (38.57) – riding high on FC’s ranking (20), McK’s has the low (49)
41. Jason Dickinson (41.14) – gets a third-round slot from RLR (64), but otherwise comfortably fits in the second round (TSN with the high at 31)
42. Dillon Heatherington (43.14) – score is hurt by RLR (62), ISS puts him in the first round (27)
43. Laurent Dauphin (42.14) – loses on aggregate to Buchnevich, but beats him head-to-head; THN has him in the third round (66), while HP has the high (36)
44. Artturi Lehkonen (46.57) – his score is thrown off by RLR (77); THN has the high (36)
45. Pavel Buchnevich (42.00) – anomalously excluded from THN’s list, he gets a high of 34 (ISS) and a low of 76 (TSN)
46. Connor Hurley (46.86) – gets a first-round nod from FC (30) with a low from TSN (57)
47. Justin Bailey (47.57) – comfortably ahead of everyone who follows; high of 34 (THN), low of 74 (HP)
48. Zach Nastasiuk (57.43) – his score is thrown off by RLR (106); his high is 39 (THN)
49. Linus Arnesson (57.43) – his score is thrown off by FC (97); his high is 38 (McK)
50. Marc-Olivier Roy (58.57) – his number is thrown by HP’s ranking (102); has a high of 39 (RLR)
51. Tristan Jarry (53.43) – loses to Bjorkstrand on aggregate, but ahead in all the most serious sources; high of 36 (RLR), low of 68 (THN)
52. Oliver Bjorkstrand (52.00) – a high of 32 (HP), with a low of 67 (ISS and FC)
53. William Carrier (59.29) – the last player with a first round selection (RLR 25), his score is hurt by ISS (100)
54. Jimmy Lodge (53.86) – a high of 38 (FC) and a low of 68 (McK)
55. Nick Sorensen (54.71) – loses to Comrie on aggregate, but has more second-round picks (5); high of 42 (RLR), low of 71 (FC)
56. Eric Comrie (54.57) – high of 32 (THN), low of 67 (HP)
57. Nick Baptiste (57.86) – high of 45 (FC), low of 74 (TSN)
58. Marko Dano (58.86) – high of 43 (THN and McK), low of 81 (ISS)
59. Keaton Thompson (63.57) – three second-round selections with a high of 33 (FC), low of 85 (McK)
60. Brett Pesce (67.43) – three second-round selections with a high of 52 (THN), with a low of 90 (ISS)
61. Peter Cehlarik (67.80) – not picked by either THN or TSN, and a late selection for RLR (111), but he has three second-round selections (a high of 48 from HP)

Honourable mentions for the round (14): Jordan Subban (ISS, FC, McK), Eric Roy (FC, THN, McK), Zach Sanford (FC, THN, McK), and Jonathan Diaby (THN, McK, TSN), all have three second-round selections, while Ryan Fitzgerald (RLR, FC), John Hayden (ISS, FC), Philippe Desrosiers (RLR, TSN), Anthony Duclair (RLR, THN), Mike Downing (HP, TSN), Adam Tambellini (RLR, HP), Spencer Martin (THN, TSN), Hudson Fasching (ISS, THN), Ryan Kujawinski (RLR, HP), and Jan Kostalek (THN, McK) all have two second-round selections.  Twelve other players received at least one second-round pick.  CP has a number of off-the-wall second-rounders shared by no one else: Viktor Arvidsson, Cole Ully, Juuso Ikonen, Sergei Tolchinsky, Anton Slepyshev, Will Butcher, and Taylor Cammarata.

Third Round

62. Jordan Subban (67.71) – the diminutive brother of Malcolm has three second-round picks with FC having the high (54) and RLR the low (85)
63. Eric Roy (73.29) – three second-round selections, his score is thrown by HP (109), THN provides the high (54)
64. Jonathan-Ismael Diaby (75.86) – three second round slots, but his score is thrown off by RLR (126), McK’s gives the high (45)
65. Zach Sanford (75.33) – ISS does not rank him, but three second-round picks can’t be ignored; McK’s has the high (53) with HP the low (93)
66. Ryan Fitzgerald (66.14) – a high of 52 (RLR), with a low of 83 (McK)
67. Philippe Desrosiers (66.50) – beats Hayden head-to-head; high of 41 (TSN), low of a fourth-round ISS selection; THN did not include him in their list
68. Anthony Duclair (67.14) – beats Hayden head-to-head; high of 43 (RLR), low of 85 (FC)
69. John Hayden (66.29) – loses on both above players head-to-head; high of 43 (ISS), low of 82 (HP)
70. Adam Tambellini (69.57) – despite losing to Downing on aggregate he beats him head-to-head; high of 50 (RLR), low of 93 (ISS)
71. Mike Downing (69.00) – high of 51 (HP), low of 94 (ISS)
72. Spencer Martin (70.00) – high of 55 (TSN), low of 89 (FC)
73. Ryan Kujawinski (71.71) – less erratic rankings than Fasching; 59 (RLR) is his high, while 73 (McK) is his low
74. Hudson Fasching (71.00) – rankings all over the place, from RLR’s (105) to ISS (40)
75. Jan Kostalek (83.71) – the last player with two second-round rankings; high of 59 (THN and McK), low of 110 (HP)
76. Yan-Pavel Laplante (77.00) – among the last players ranked by all sources; high of 59 (ISS), low of 92 (FC)
77. Carl Dahlstrom (90.29) – second last player to appear on all lists, ISS’ ranking (150) throws his number out of whack; highest rating from THN (61)
78. Niklas Hansson (89.67) – ranking is thrown by ISS (128), FC and HP have his high (69); he gets no ranking from TSN
79. Nick Moutrey (82.50) – benefits from a high HP rating (49); McK’s has the low (109); TSN does not rank him
80. Jackson Houck (80.67) – his score is inflated by RLR (40); his low is HP (116) while TSN does not rank him
81. Gustav Olofsson (67.00) – despite the high aggregate score he has no second-round selections; high of 63 (HP, McK, TSN), low of 80 (THN)
82. Remi Elie (98.29) – he beats Paquin-Boudreau head-to-head; HP has the high (45), while FC buries him (173)
83 Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau (95.29) – appears in all sources, but just an “honourable mention” from TSN; wildly varied rankings (high of 61 from RLR, low of 124 from ISS and HP)
84. Matt Buckles (103.33) – his number is thrown off by HP (192); he’s not included by TSN; FC has the high (61)
85. Juuse Saros (96.40) – an undersized goaltender who could fall further (Jean Auren, CSE #4 last year, did not get picked); not selected by THN or TSN; high of 71 (HP), low of the fifth round (ISS)
86. Victor Crus-Rydberg (98.50) – ratings all over the place, from 59 (HP) to 147 (RLR); not part of TSN’s list
87. Wilhelm Westlund (120.40) – RLR doesn’t like him (250), but has three third-round selections (ISS with the high of 63); not picked by TSN or THN
88. Michael Wheaton (108.50) – three third-round selections, but loses to Westlund head-to-head; high of 66 (ISS), low of 139 (RLR); not picked by TSN
89. Lucas Wallmark (113.67) – has a second-round (ISS 50) and two third-round selections; score is hurt by RLR (278); not picked by TSN
90. Rushan Rafikov (113.00) – last player with three third-round selections; high of 81 (THN), a low of 196 (RLR); neither TSN nor THN included him
91. Greg Chase (98.00) – the next player on aggregate; high of 70 (RLR), low of 114 (McK); not picked by THN or TSN

Honourable mentions (12): Mason Geertsen (THN, McK), Sven Andrighetto (HP, THN), Gustav Possler (FC, HP), Anthony Florentino (ISS, FC), Stephen Harper (ISS, THN), Will Butcher (RLR, ISS), and Austin Lotz (ISS, McK) all have two third-round selections, while Carter Verhaeghe (ISS), Eamon McAdam (ISS), Gage Ausmus (ISS), Rinat Valiev (RLR), Kayle Doetzel (ISS), and Pavel Koledov (HP) all have a single second-round selection.  Most of CP’s off the wall second-rounders remain as well.

Fourth Round

[Only one of TSN’s honourable mentions remains to be listed;  THN’s list only goes a little way into the fourth so I haven’t noted when a player was not selected by them.]

92. Mason Geertsen (99.50) – a high of 74 (THN) and a low of 117 (HP)
93. Gage Ausmus (111.50) – rankings all over the place, from a low of 50 (ISS) to a high of 178 (FC)
94. Carter Verhaeghe (102.80) – although lower than Andrighetto on aggregate, for a variety of factors (expressed below) I see him ahead; his high is 52 (ISS) while his low is 112 (RLR and HP)
95. Sven Andrighetto (102.00) – an older, smaller player, he could slide much further; a high of 76 (McK) to a low of 147 (ISS); FC does not list him
96. Anthony Florentino (114.00) – two third-round selections, with the high 77 (ISS) and the low 179 (RLR)
97. Stephen Harper (114.33) – among the few players left picked by six sources, his high is 78 (ISS), his low 166 (RLR)
98. Gustav Possler (111.25) – second last player with two third-round selections, he was not ranked by RLR; high of 82 (FC) and low of 105 (ISS)
99. Will Butcher (119.60) – the undersized American is the second last player with two third-round selections; high of 69 (RLR) to a low of 137 (HP)
100. Anton Cederholm (107.20) – the Swede inexplicably goes unranked by RLR, but appears in five sources nonetheless; high of 89 (HP), low of 134 (FC)
101. J. C. Lipon (103.80) – the overager comes out next on aggregate; high of 91 (ISS), low of 146 (HP)
102. Kurt Etchegary (110.50) – ranked by all six remaining sources, 89 (THN) is his high, 130 (ISS) the low
103. Eamon McAdam (106.20) – among the last player with a second-round placement (ISS), his rankings are all over the place (HP the low at 144)
104. Jared Hauf (110.40) – next on aggregate, high of 86 (ISS), low of 119 (FC)
105. Sean Malone (110.80) – HP is not a fan (160), but his other rankings are very consistent (RLR the high at 92)
106. Vincent Dunn (111.50) – appears in all six sources with a high of 87 (THN) and a low of 130 (RLR)
107. Ben Harpur (112.50) – not ranked by McK, he has a high of 84 (ISS) and a low of 136 (RLR)
108. Cole Cassels (120.83) – one of the last players in all six sources he has a wide range, with an 84 (THN) and a low of 133 (RLR)
109. Bogdan Yakimov (108.20) – hurt by his RLR score (148) and has the Russian factor hanging over him; HP has the high (81)
110. Austin Lotz (131.20) – the last player with two third-round rankings, his high is 88 (ISS and McK), his low 191 (HP)
111. Tyler Lewington (133.33) – second last player in all six sources he also has a wide range of rankings, with a 90 (McK) high to a 179 (ISS) low
112. Brendan Harms (123.40) – the best score among players with a third-round and at least two fourth-round selections; high of 81 (FC), low of 202 (HP); not picked by ISS
113. Avery Peterson (126.20) – also has a third (78 RLR) and two fourths; low of 176 (HP)
114. Jesse Lees (126.75) – as above; his score is thrown off by HP (197), the high is RLR (86); not picked by McK
115. Tyler Bertuzzi (127.20) – the last player with both a third and two fourths, his score takes a hit from RLR (172); high is 87 (ISS)
116. Jeremy Gregoire (128.17) – the final player listed by six sources, THN is the high (92), while RLR is the low (162)
117. Nicholas Paul (116.75) – high of 82 (ISS), low of 142 (RLR); not ranked by McK
118. Jake Guentzel (118.0) – undersized, he gets a high of 74 (FC) and a low of 151 (ISS)
119. Viktor Arvidsson (114.25) – could fall right out of the draft as an overage, undersized forward; high of 65 (FC) and low of 153 (RLR); not ranked by HP
120. Sergey Stetsenko (91.00) – only picked by two sources (RLR 67, ISS 115), but they are the stronger sources; THW has him at 167
121. Colby Cave (127.25) – three fourth-round selections; a high of 112 (ISS), a low of 165 (FC); HP does not list him

Honourable mentions: a large number of single third round selections remain, so rather than list them all I’ll note the three second-round picks still outstanding (Rinat Valiev (RLR), Kayle Doetzel (ISS), and Pavel Koledov (HP)), as well as high aggregate players who have not yet appeared because they are selected by only two sources: Jaimen Yakubowski (RLR, FC), Blaine Byron (RLR, McK), and Atte Makinen (ISS, HP).  Most of CP’s unique second-rounders also still remain.

Fifth Round

[One TSN selection remains along with a handful from THN; McK’s dwindles as well so I haven’t noted their non-selections.]

122. Dylan Labbe (119.25) – beats Brodzinski head-to-head; high of 79 (FC), low of 146 (RLR)
123. Michael Brodzinski (119.00) – RLR is high on him (63), while HP is not (174); ISS and McK’s don’t list him
124. Cole Ully (119.75) – high of 91 (McK), low of 155 (FC); ISS doesn’t list him
125. Matt Murphy (121.75) – high of 72 (RLR), low of 157 (HP)
126. Tyler Motte (130.80) – third round selection for ISS (80) as he is for CP (74); undersized player gets a 177 from HP
127. Myles Bell (122.00) – his third trip through the draft, the converted defensemen gets a high of 102 (ISS) and a low of 147 (FC); HP does not rank him
128. Alexandre Belanger (120.33) – goaltender gets a third-round nod from ISS with a 162 from HP; FC does not rank him
129. Greg Betzold (122.00) – not ranked by RLR, but gets a 72 from HP; 200 from ISS
130. Roberts Lipsbergs (131.00) – overager gets two fourth-round nods; high of 96 (RLR), low of 171 (FC)
131. Martin Reway (131.67) – undersized player also has two fourth-round picks; high of 102 (RLR), low of 175 (HP); FC did not rank him
132. Evan Cowley (134.00) – two fourth-round rankings; high of 112 (McK), low of 183 (HP); RLR does not rank him
133. Fredrik Bergvik (131.67) – two fourth-round picks; McK with the high (117), FC the low (160); ISS and HP don’t rank him
134. Eric Locke (136.00) – another overage player with two-fourth round selections; high of 98 (RLR), low of 200 (HP); ISS does not rank him
135. Jean-Sebastien Dea (136.25) – final player with two fourth-round picks; high of 101 (FC), low of 179 (HP)
136. Rinat Valiev (120.00) – RLR loves him (58), but his other rankings aren’t remarkable (ISS with the low, 159); FC doesn’t rank him
137. Kayle Doetzel (123.60) – ISS is a big fan (60), but all the rest of his numbers are in the fifth round (RLR with the low at 165)
138. Blaine Byron (101.50) – only appears in two sources (RLR gives him 84, McK 119)
139. Jaimen Yakubowski (99.00) – FC likes the overage, undersized player (90), but RLR is the only other source to rank him (108)–that includes CS and CP (but not THW who have him at 158)
140. Marcus Hogberg (123.25) – a third-round pick from McK (71), RLR and FC slot him in the fifth (159 from RLR); ISS does not rank him, but he’s the last player TSN includes
141. Teemu Kivihalme (126.00) – a third-rounder for HP (78), he fits into this round for everyone else (low of 149 from ISS)
142. Calvin Petersen (123.25) – Mck has the high (95), with RLR (140) the low; ISS doesn’t rank him
143. Evan Allen (133.20) – RLR is very high on him (68), but he’s pummelled by HP’s 178
144. Kyle Burroughs (133.00) – RLR has the high (89), with FC the low (142); HP doesn’t rank him
145. Atte Makinen (118.50) – HP slots him at 96, while ISS has him at 141; RLR and FC don’t rank him
146. Nikolai Glukhov (125.00) – both ISS and HP have him at 125, but RLR and FC don’t rank him
147. Ryan Graves (131.67) – universally picked in the fifth round (RLR high at 122, FC the low at 138); HP doesn’t rank him
148. Juuso Ikonen (135.20) – a third-round selection for HP (79), FC has him in the sixth (167)
149. Sergei Tolchinsky (136.40) – undersized player is an RLR favourite (71), while ISS has him at 173
150. Dominik Kubalik (139.00) – ISS has him in the third-round (83), while FC puts him at 197
151. Markus Soberg (147.75) – wildly varied opinions, with ISS (61) at the high end and RLR (238) on the low; HP doesn’t rank him

Honourable mentions: Pavel Koledov (HP) is the only second-round selection still outstanding; Filip Sandberg (THN), Connor Clifton (HP), Robin Norell (ISS), Andrei Mironov (ISS), Anton Slepyshev (RLR), Jeff Corbett (HP), Alexander Henriksson (RLR), Keegan Kanzig (ISS), Joose Antonen (HP), Luke Johnson (ISS), Brian Pinho (HP), Blake Heinrich (FC), and Amil Krupic (McK) are the remaining players with a third-round ranking.

Sixth Round

152. Connor Clifton (139.80) – a high of 86 (HP) with a low of 170 (FC)
153. Andrei Mironov (141.00) – a high of 72 (ISS), a low of 193 (RLR); Russian factor can’t be ignored
154. Connor Rankin (142.50) – generally thought of as a fifth rounder; high of 129 (RLR), low of 166 (HP)
155. Alexander Henriksson (147.50) – wide range, with an 81 from RLR and a 189 from FC (ISS does not rank him)
156. Taylor Cammarata (144.00) – pint-sized forward gets a 115 from HP, but a 176 from ISS
157. Tyler Hill (147.75) – a high of 124 (RLR), low of 164 (HP)
158. Brent Pedersen (152.25) – little-regarded by RLR (185), he tops out with HP (135)
159. Marc McNulty (154.40) – listed by five sources, his high is 99 (McK), to a low of 190 (HP)
160. Luke Johnson (164.40) – suffers from RLR’s 274, his high is 62 (ISS)
161. Brody Silk (167.50) – FC is a fan (128), but RLR is not (203)
162. Nolan De Jong (168.00) – ISS see’s him in the fourth-round (111), but RLR isn’t a fan (198)
163. Spenser Jensen (169.00) – suffers from RLR’s 253; high is ISS’ 92
164. Blake Heinrich (171.00) – RLR isn’t a fan (261), but FC has him in the third-round (FC)
165. Brendan Burke (180.60) – gets a fourth-round nod from ISS, but RLR buries him (264)
166. David Pope (182.80) – high of 103 (McK), low of 294 (RLR); he’s the final five-source player
167. Robin Norell (140.00) – wide range over the three sources who include him; 70 from ISS, 202 from RLR; FC does not rank him; CP has him at 141
168. Jerret Smith (144.00) – from a high of 131 (FC) to a low of 161 (RLR)
169. Jeff Corbett (144.67) – bit of an odd duck, with an 85 from HP, a 92 from McK, but the only other ranking is RLR’s 257
170. Ty Stanton (147.00) – high of 116 (McK), low of 164 (RLR); ISS and FC don’t include him; CS has him at 78
171. Kyle Platzer (150.00) – high of 101 (HP), low of 213 (RLR); FC does not rank him; CP has him at 151
172. Wiley Sherman (151.25) – high of 118 (HP), low of 192 (FC); not ranked by ISS
173. Mackenzie Weegar (153.67) – RLR gives the overager a 95, while ISS puts him at 198; FC does not rank him
174. Trevor Murphy (154.00) – undersized player gets a 97 from THN (one of the last players in their list remaining), while ISS puts him at 191; FC does not rank him
175. Keegan Kanzig (156.50) – from an ISS third-rounder (74) to RLR putting him as the last pick in the draft (211); FC does not rank him
176. Maxime Gravel (163.25) – RLR buries him (258), while ISS has him in the fourth-round (114); HP does not rank him; CP puts him in the fourth round (115)
177. Louis-Philip Guindon (163.33) – an ISS fifth-rounder to RLR’s 180; FC and HP do not rank him
178. Jackson Whistle (163.67) – high of 135 (RLR) to a low of 186 (FC); ISS and HP don’t rank him
179. Macoy Erkamps (173.33) – high of 127 (RLR) to a low of 206 (FC); ISS does not rank him
180. Gabe Guertler (176.33) – undersized prospect gets a 167 from RLR, but a 183 from ISS; HP does not rank him
181. Hunter Garlent (189.25) – pint-sized player is one of the last with three sources putting him in the draft; high of 173 (HP) to a low of 247 (RLR)

Honourable mentions: I focussed on players who had the most selections above, so many players picked by just two sources are on the outside looking in.  The highest ranked are: Filip Sandberg, Ruslan Pedan, Erik Bradford, Eddie Ellis, Anton Slepyshev, Vyacheslav Leschenko, Antoine Bibeau, Emil Djuse, Anthony DiFruscia, Clint Lewis, and Dmitry Yudin.

Seventh Round

[At this stage I’ll just list all sources who rank a player and reference non-aggregate sources for context.]

182. Filip Sandberg (139.00) – listed by THN and HP; THW 210, CP 82, CS 37
183. Emil Djuse (155.00) – listed by RLR, FC, and McK; THW 144, CP 98, CS 22
184. Amil Krupic (188.33) – a third-rounder for McK, RLR has him out of the draft (313); ISS also ranks him; CP 173, CS 102
185. Joose Antonen (163.33) – a third-rounder for HP (90), RLR has him out of the draft (260); ISS also ranks him; THW 151, CP 152, CS 51
186. Erik Bradford (139.50) – listed by HP and RLR; THW 163, CP 203, CS 145
187. Eddie Ellis (141.00) – listed by FC and RLR; CP 208
188. Vyacheslav Leschenko (147.00) – listed by RLR and HP; THW 179, CP 180, CS 32
189. Antoine Bibeau (148.50) – listed by RLR and HP; the overage goaltender is well-liked by CS (9)
190. Anthony DiFruscia (158.00) – listed by RLR and ISS; CS 197
191. Clint Lewis (159.50) – listed by ISS and RLR; CP 182, CS 181
192. Dmitry Yudin (160.50) – listed by HP and ISS; CS 41
193. Ruslan Pedan (139.50) – listed by FC and RLR, but warrants no mention from either CS or CP
194. Brian Pinho (169.33) – third-rounder for HP (80), while RLR has him out of the draft (241); FC also ranks him; THW 124, CS 109
195. Miles Liberati (173.67) – a fourth-rounder for HP (107), RLR has him out of the draft (221); FC also ranks him; THW 183, CP 197, CS 150
196. Tim Bender (185.67) – hurt by RLR (245), he gets a fourth-round nod from HP (105); FC also ranks him; THW 173, CS 108
197. Josh Burnside (169.00) – fourth-round from ISS (117), out of the draft from RLR (254); HP also ranks him; THW 186, CP 181, CS 123
198. Alex Fotinos (203.33) – hurt by RLR (298); fourth-rounder for ISS; FC also ranks him
199. Jordan Maletta (195.67) – like so many he’s hurt by his RLR score (268); FC has him at 126; ISS also ranks him
200. Tobias Liljendahl (197.33) – as above, with RLR (297) and HP (138); ISS also ranks him; CS 101
201. Patrik Bartosak (166.00) – overage goaltender is ranked by HP and RLR; THW has him at 153; CP 221, CS 8
202. Tyler Kelleher (175.00) – ranked by RLR and FC; CP 97
203. Jaedon Descheneau (177.00) – ranked by RLR and FC; CP 154
204. Zach Hall (190.33) – overager hurt by RLR (230), gets a 149 from HP; ISS also ranks him; CP 102, CS 158
205. Parker Reno (167.50) – RLR and ISS rank him; CP 218, CS 140
206. Frederik Tiffels (168.50) – ISS and HP rank him; CP 227
207. Ross Olsson (168.50) – RLR and HP rank him; CP 249, CS 186
208. Vinni Letteri (172.00) – diminutive player is ranked by ISS and FC; CP 237, CS 209
209. Jayden Hart (176.50) – ranked by RLR and FC; THW has him at 166; CS 134
210. Ville Husso (177.00) – goaltender ranked by ISS and FC; THW has him at 201; CS 6
211. Zach Gilenke (187.33) – RLR has him out of the draft (215), but ISS puts him in the sixth round (162); FC also ranks him; CS 160

Honourable mentions: Anton Slepyshev is the highest rated player who does not appear above–I left him out because unless he’s changed his mind about coming to North America he will remain undrafted just like last year.  Tommy Veilleux is the only other player who appears in three sources (all his selections were in the seventh round).  Eight other players had at least two sources that put them in the draft that did not make my cut.  Here are their scores (including the aforementioned pair):
Anton Slepyshev (142.25)
Stephen Nosad (180.50)
Tim McGauley (187.00)
Timotej Sille (188.00)
Tucker Poolman (189.00)
Andrei Sigarev (190.00)
Ryan Segalla (193.50)
Tommy Veilleux (194.33)
Luca Fazzini (199.00)
Michael Giugovaz (213.33)
Here are the highest ranked players excluded from my list (including the non-aggregate sources, excluding the above where applicable):
Ebbe Sionas (2 CS) – no one else ranked the goaltender
Luka Gracnar (3 CS) – as above
Ivan Bocharov (5 CS) – as above
Fabio Hogger (27 CS) – no one else ranked him
Victor Ohman (29 CS) – undersized forward was also ranked 167 HP, 166 CP, and 175 THW
Pavel Koledov (53 HP) – CP was the only other source to rank the Russian defender (228)
Anthony Louis (77 CP) – only THW (187) also has the 5’6 forward on their list
Arturs Kuzmenkovs (81 CP) – no one else has the overage defender ranked
Miro Aaltonen (86 CP) – FC (127) and CS (40) also have the overage forward ranked
Jan Stencel (88 CP) – other than CS (44) no one else ranked the diminutive Czech defender
Ahti Oksanen (92 CP) – no one else ranked the overage NCAA blueliner
Connor Crisp (97 HP) – no one else ranked the big forward
Ty Ganley (98 HP) – CP (206) and CS (166) also ranked the blueliner
Ben Betker (99 THN) – other than CS (147) no one else ranked the rugged blueliner
Daniel Nikandrov (99 HP) – CS (135) and THW (199) were the only other sources to rank the defensively-minded forward
Matt Needham (99 THW) – ISS (123) and RLR (265) are the other sources who rank the diminutive forward
Dean Kukan (100 CP) – no one else has the overage blueliner making the cut
Victor Baldayev (103 ISS) – CS (47) was the only other source to rank the Russian defender
Arvid Lundberg (111 McK) – no one else ranked the Swedish defender
Vladislav Lysenko (116 FC) – no one else had the Russian defender make the cut
Troy Josephs (120 ISS) – no one else had the overager make the cut
Also not included are some older Europeans who are still eligible for the draft (cited by RLR): Viktor Antipin, Mattias Janmark Nylen, and Tomas Nosek.

My list consists of 118 forwards, 74 defensemen, and 19 goaltenders; 121 are from the CHL, 46 from US leagues, and 44 from European leagues.  RLR has the strongest feelings throughout the draft, but these impact the latter rankings the most.  This is not a new trend and predictively they were the best among my sources last year–we’ll see if that continues.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 27, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 14 Comments

Senators News: June 26th

-The Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup, winning the series 4-2 and the game 3-2.  I didn’t have strong feelings over who should win the final, but stylistically I’m glad it was Chicago.

-As expected, RFA Louie Caporusso is the only player the Sens did not qualify.

–Travis Yost talks about Milan Michalek getting the same treatment for his knees that helped NBA star Kobe Bryant.

-Speculation continues over whether Daniel Alfredsson will return for another season or not, but to me it has always seemed like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be back.  Alfie has promised the decision by Friday.

-The names of two prospects invited to Ottawa have come out (Adam Erne and Kerby Rychel), but four were invited.

-A pile of Sens draft-related videos have come out and Nichols has transcribed what interests him and starts with Bryan Murray (discussing bringing in a player via trade or free agency):

(A player) that can come in and play and contribute. Not just fill a spot. Not just be there because he’s a veteran hockey player that has been around. A guy that can come in and play in a definite role with this hockey team and contribute in that role.

Nichols see’s this as Murray finally giving up on cheap or broken down fill-ins, but his track record for the latter is quite long so I’m not so sure.  Next up is Tim Murray who had a lot of interesting things to say, beginning with what the team is looking for:

The same as every year – the best player available. We think we’re pretty deep in most positions. At seventeen, if you look back at past drafts, it’s tough to get an impact defenceman at that point, so I’ll let you guys figure that out. I would say that the percentages says that it will be a forward, but maybe a (defenceman) drops. Every year, a good (defenceman) is dropped, as we’ve seen in the last couple (of drafts), so (we’ll take) the best player available.

Goaltenders are not mentioned, so I don’t think we’ll see one taken with the Sens first pick.  As for the quality of the draft:

I don’t think it’s as deep as I’ve been told by you guys. But in saying that, I think the top end is good. I think the first couple of rounds are decent. I think at the top of the first round is very good, obviously. I think it’s a decent draft. This year, you could say there is the three top guys and then there is another five, and then there is another five and then another six.

So that’s four tiers in the first 19 players (with the Sens near the back of the fourth).  Could the Sens make a deal to move up?

There are teams out there that need NHL players – and they’ve stated it. There are teams out there that are very thin. We feel that we are very, very deep. We feel that we have a lot of young depth that we have drafted, we’ve developed that we like a lot, but we’re not shopping them. But, if that scenario came up, we feel comfortable helping another team out with NHL players.

This is a pretty clear distinction that the organisation is willing to give up roster players but not their top prospects.  Tim also talked about the process of deciding on their list (Nichols does not quote him, but his interview is up on the Sens website) and he said that there’s broad consensus through the first few rounds, but beyond that regional scouts make those decisions.  Next up is Pierre Dorion who talked about how long their list is this year:

This year, it’s 1 to 150, I think. And sometimes there are healthy discussions between 78 and 79 because maybe that’s our third round pick or maybe that’s our fourth round pick and we have to be prepared for that scenario.

–Sylvain St-Laurent wonders if the 17th overall pick really matters since the player won’t be ready for two or three years.  I think that sentiment is pretty common among journalists who cover hockey, but for fans the answer is obvious: of course it matters.  It effects organisational depth and provides a look at what element will be added to the team down the road.

-There are rumours out that the Sens are looking to draft Samuel Morin in the upcoming draft.

–Elliotte Friedman floats the idea that the Sens could pursue Marian Hossa, whose six remaining years on his contract might as well be a NTC (Travis Yost looks at the idea without deciding one way or another, but I just don’t see it happening).

-Speaking of rumours, the Hemsky for Smith deal has been shot down by Bruce Garrioch.

-Here’s my look at Bob McKenzie’s look at the 2013 NHL draft.

–Eric T does an excellent job illustrating how quality of competition and player usage can be derived from the minimal stats (compared to the NHL) that the CHL, KHL, and other leagues provide.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 26, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

Bob McKenzie’s 2013 NHL Draft Rankings

Tonight TSN’s Bob McKenzie has broadcast his list of the top prospects in this year’s draft.  McKenzie has a stellar record for draft predictions (here is last year’s list) and here are his top-30 rankings along with my thoughts.

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Seth Jones
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Aleksander Barkov
5. Elias Lindholm
6. Valeri Nichuskin
7. Sean Monahan
8. Rasmus Ristolainen
9. Darnell Nurse
10. Max Domi
11. Nikita Zadorov
12. Alexander Wennberg
13. Bo Horvat
14. Hunter Shinkaruk
15. Anthony Mantha
16. Mirco Mueller
17. Samuel Morin
18. Curtis Lazar
19. Zachary Fucale
20. Adam Erne
21. Kerby Rychel
22. Frederik Gauthier
23. Ryan Pulock
24. Andre Burakowsky
25. Valentin Zykov
26. Ryan Hartman
27. Robert Hagg
28. Joshua Morrissey
29. Jacob De La Rose
30. Morgan Klimchuk

This year Bob expanded his list to 75 players plus five more “honourable mentions” (given that they weren’t just slotted as #76-#80, I have to assume they are later round selections).  There are no radical selections made as his picks are echoed elsewhere (the closest I can come are Philippe Desrosiers at #41 and Spencer Martin #55, both of which are a little higher than the rest).  When it comes to the first round Bob is an incredibly good barometer of which players will be picked, so while the placement may vary most of the players above will be picked early.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 25, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: June 24th

–Hockey’s Future has yet another new writer for the Sens (Brian Fogarty, apparently replacing the one-and-done Jason Chen) and he offers up a draft preview for the team that isn’t so much a prediction as it is a state-of-the-union for the team beforehand.  He offers a brief overview of the organisation (he makes a minor error saying the Sens haven’t drafted Russians or Czech’s under Murray–I believe he means selecting from their respective leagues, given Jakub Culek and Ruslan Bashkirov are both Czech and Russian).  He provides a list of where the Sens pick this year and says the organisational weaknesses are replacing graduating players and adding skill on the blueline.  Let’s hope that Brian lasts a little longer than his predecessors and I look forward to more in depth pieces to come.

–Varada takes a look at Ottawa’s blueline (in the midst of which he calls Nick Foligno a good top-six forward, which I hope is tongue-in-cheek) and points out that Patrick Wiercioch played some of the softest minutes in the league this season.  He reasons this means Patty can’t handle much more than that, which is an interesting assumption for a young player.  Can he play tougher minutes and have success?  I have no idea, but this season Paul MacLean didn’t trust that he could.  A better question might be how much do the Sens need Wiercioch to play a lot more tough minutes?  Varada transitions his reasoning into the Sens taking a run at free agent Grant Clitsome, who at age 27 (now 28) had his second full season (is a lockout year a full year?) as an NHL-regular.  Clitsome is an undersized defenseman who plays the left side and while he had a decent year with Winnipeg (44-4-12-16 +10; he was 63-4-13-17 -9 in 11/12) I don’t quite follow the reasoning that he can come to Ottawa and play those tough minutes.  This is an NCAA grad who needed three years before he could crack the Columbus Blue Jacket blueline.  It’s all damning with faint praise and I’m not sure one mediocre half-season is enough to entice Bryan Murray to slot him into the lineup in place of someone else.  I will say this though: he is better than Mike Lundin.

–Travis Yost tackles the Ales Hemsky–Zack Smith trade rumours and believes the Sens would throw in another piece to get the Oilers to eat some of Hemsky‘s salary.  He also thinks the trade would hinge on an extension for the Czech winger with Ottawa.  I’d reject the idea behind the trade outright if Murray didn’t have a track record of bringing in broken down veterans.  Hemsky hasn’t played 70+ games since 08-09 and his production has slipped the past two seasons even when healthy.  Senschirp suggests that deal may be part of the puzzle that see’s the Sens grab the Oilers first round draft pick, but until more information comes from more reliable sources it remains entertaining speculation.

-In the same article Yost kicks the tires on the Sens picking up Marc-Andre Bergeron (pass), Jared Spurgeon (Wild would match), and Tom Gilbert (pass), none of which seem realistic or (in the first and third cases) particularly helpful.

–Darren M believes the Sens will take Ryan Pulock as their first round selection.  No draft source I’ve seen has him at that position, but Red Line Report is the closest with him at 18th.  Most of the draft guides (six of eight) have him picked prior to the Sens selection.

–Jared Crozier believes the Sens will pick Robert Hagg with their first round selection.  The only draft guide that comes close to this is McKeen’s, which has him 19th, while only The Hockey News has him that early (picking him 12th); three of the guides consider him second round material.

–Jesse Spector rakes the Leafs over the coals for the Jonathan Bernier trade and really, unless Bernier becomes a great #1 goaltender there’s no question in my mind that it was a bad deal.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 24, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

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