-The big news of the day is that the NHL lockout is over (Darren Dreger reports training camps could open as early as Wednesday).  I have to give SensProspects his due for calling it early.  I didn’t think the lockout would happen and then believed it would be short, but in the end the league and players weren’t stupid enough to lose an entire season.  Hopefully the hockey will be entertaining over the truncated schedule.  Mark Parisi worries that the acrimonious relationship between the players and the owners will lead to further problems, but I don’t see it.  The CBA is all about the money.  Pierre LeBrun breaks down the deal while Stu Hackel looks at some of the factors involved in coming to a deal, including:

The threat by the players of disclaiming interest in their union — essentially dissolving it as their bargaining agent in these negotiations. Had they actually done so, it would have removed the legal obstacles preventing them from pursing anti-trust litigation against the owners. Had lawsuits of that nature proceeded, and if a judge ruled in favor of the players, the owners would have been liable for triple the monetary damages being sought. This was a tactic to get the league to bargain more actively when it showed little willingness to compromise on key issues and was only put before the players reluctantly by the NHLPA leadership and rather late in the process; some labor law experts and observers believed the union should have gone this route weeks, if not months, ago. The players first voted to give their executive committee the authority to disclaim interest in late December, with an expiration of Jan. 2, and as that date came closer, progress began to be made. When it expired and there was no agreement, the players detected that the owners changed their approach to bargaining, so they voted again to give the executive that authority and an agreement followed in short order.

A third factor was the removal of owners from the process. At many of the major bargaining sessions, a group of hardline owners sat across the table from the union representatives and players. Those sessions were generally unproductive and, at times, fractious. More progress was made in early December when some less militant owners joined the talks and Bettman and Fehr temporarily excluded themselves. But the hardest of the hardliners, Boston’s Jeremey Jacobs and Calgary’s Murray Edwards, remained involved and those sessions couldn’t finish off the agreement. Talks came crashing to a halt when the players said they wanted Fehr back in the process, that they were not trained in the art of closing the deal, and having their leader present was something they were certainly entitled to do. Edwards reportedly told them that Fehr’s return would be a deal-killer and things ground to a halt. Following that episode, the league wisely decided against active ownership participation.

-Binghamton continued their winning ways with a 3-1 victory over Hershey.  I was unable to watch the game, but Ben Bishop picked up the win (the only goal against came off Eric Gryba‘s skate), while Stephane Da Costa, Mike Hoffman, and Mark Stone (empty-netter) provided the goals.  Here are the highlights and the box score.

-Binghamton faces Albany (12-11-7) this afternoon; the Devils are lead by former B-Sen Bobby Butler (22 points) and backstopped by Keith Kinkaid (9-7-3 2.40 .918).  Binghamton defeated Albany 3-2 in their last meeting.

-Elmira lost 6-4 to Reading last night with Gazley (named as an ECHL all-star), Downing, and Caporusso all earning points in the loss.  The Jackals play Trenton (14-14-5) this afternoon; the Titans are lead by Andy Bohmbach and backstopped by Scott Wedgewood (10-9-2 3.03 .901).

–Don Brennan offers his Sens predictions for this season which seem to have been composed months ago and dusted off with the lockout over.  Brennan speculates Craig Anderson will be traded at some point because…well it’s not really made clear why (I’ll infer that it’s to make room for Robin Lehner).  He speculates that Jakob Silfverberg could one day be a 35-goal scorer (an odd number to choose), but otherwise all his roster guesses are standard (Peter Regin goes unmentioned but presumably fits in as the unnamed player on the third line).

–Ken Warren also looks at the roster and speculates that the Sens may need to make a trade to fill in the void left by Jared Cowen.  He also indulges in Brennan’s Anderson speculation, although I suspect it is much more likely that Ben Bishop would be trade bait if a deal is made this year.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 6, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

-Binghamton defeated Wilkes-Barre 3-1 last night in a game I was able to watch.  The B-Sens had a slow start and were badly outshot in the game (44-15), but were opportunistic and overcame some brutal officiating.  Robin Lehner earned the win while Derek Grant, Mike Hoffman, and Hugh Jessiman provided the goals.  There was an ugly boarding incident as Eric Tangradi ran Mark Borowiecki late in the game–it bodes well for Tangradi‘s future as a Penguin (2:40 in the highlight package).  Here are the highlights and box score.

-Binghamton plays Hershey (16-14-2) tonight.  The Bears are lead by Jeff Taffe (32 points) and backstopped by Braden Holtby (12-10-1 2.15 .932).  Binghamton won their last meeting 2-1 in OT.

-Elmira defeated conference leading Reading 5-3 last night.  Darren Kramer picked up an assist in his return to the lineup (along with two fights), while Jack Downing had a three-point night, Louie Caporusso had two points, and Dustin Gazley scored.  The Jackals play the Royals again tonight.

-I wasn’t able to watch either WJC game, but Canada lost 6-5 to Russia while the Swedes lost 3-1 to the States.  I imagine there will be some soul-searching here, but while I think the coaching for Canada could have been better there’s not much to draw from a single elimination tournament.

-Here’s an update on how Senators players in Europe have performed:
Erik Karlsson (SM-Liiga) 30-9-25-34
Jason Spezza (NLA) 28-9-21-30
Sergei Gonchar (KHL) 35-3-25-28
Milan Michalek (Czech) 20-11-11-22
Kyle Turris (SM-Liiga) 21-7-12-19
Kaspars Daugavins (KHL) 34-5-8-13
Mike Lundin (Allsvenskan) 7-0-4-4
Colin Greening (Denmark) 17-13-12-25
Zack Smith (Denmark) 7-4-6-10
Peter Regin (NLB) 4-2-3-5
Erik Condra (Ger-3/Ger-2) 7-8-11-19/10-10-5-15

As expected all the players (save Daugavins) have dominated their respective leagues.

–Stu Hackel sums up the current state of the CBA negotiations, but I don’t think their bitter nature will interfere with a deal getting done.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 5, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

-Binghamton plays Wilkes-Barre (14-14-3) tonight; the Penguins are lead by Beau Bennett (21 points) and backstopped by Jeff Zatkoff (11-10-0 2.18 .915).  In their last meeting the B-Sens beat Wilkes-Barre 4-3 in a game where they overcame a 3-0 deficit.

–Luke Richardson talked about how the team improved after a rocky start:

I think at the beginning of the year (it was) to really shore up the defensive side of the game. And part of working on the defence is just to get the puck back (up the ice) quicker so you can have it more when you’re fresh to create offence. I know that’s the philosophy they use in Ottawa – to play defense fast. And we just try to copy that and keep it in house in the organization so when players do (get called) up, they’re on the same wavelength; even if we don’t play exactly the same, it’s pretty close as a philosophy. I think as we went, we really worked on creating scoring chances off the rush and being in better spots in the offensive zone on any kind of a forecheck or a rotation. Definitely the power play – they have done a great job and we had to find some units that work better together and players that work better together. They’ve worked really hard at simplifying things, getting pucks to the net and having some courage to stand in front of the net in those tough areas when guys are blasting pucks away at 100 miles an hour. We’ve really created some opportunities for ourselves to score some goals and like you said, goaltending has been our… and our defensive core, especially on the penalty killing side of things have kept goals to a minimal and (scoring) chances to a minimal. Even some nights when shots seem to be a little bit high, they’re all from the outside or most of them are from non-scoring areas; so we’ve taken pride in that and that is everybody on the team. Everybody has done a good job of that, so we’re proud of that. I think the hard work comes in where we’ve really skated and I think we’ve really outskated teams, especially in the third periods, to create those offensive chances to get our goals and that’s where you see us coming back in the third periods from deficits. Or maybe in games that are 1-1 like the other night, and we kind of overtake a team that is tired on the road (St. Johns) and we kind of outskate them in the third and take over control of the game. I think we’ve really evolved into a complete team up to this point and we still want to push and get better. These guys are a really fun group to work with. They seem to really enjoy each other and I think the biggest part of coaching is trying to mesh guys together, enjoy being together and enjoy working hard together. And they’ve done that so that’s a great credit to them.

Nichols (who provides the text above) rightly points out that Richardson’s frequent praise of the team’s defensive work doesn’t jive with the amount of shots they give up (worst in the AHL).  This isn’t to say the B-Sens haven’t improved defensively, but it does mean stellar goaltending is making up for a lot of mistakes.  In fairness to the defense, their two most defensive blueliners have missed significant time (9 games for Eric Gryba and 8 games for Mark Borowiecki) and they were hurt at different times, so only 12 times this season has Binghamton enjoyed its true bulwark on the blueline (the team is 10-1-1 when both are in the lineup).  About the goaltending Richardson said:

I think consistently when you look at it now and you think, ‘Oh, wow, you’ve got Lehner and (Ben Bishop)’ but Robin has been here from the start of training camp and that gives him that extra notch above (Bishop) and he’s been solid all year long. He’s a big guy that has come in good shape and a good frame of mind this year that wants to accomplish something. He looks like he really wants to follow it through all the way to the end of the season and that’s great to see. I’ve said it before, he’s not just a typical quiet goalie on game days. He’s vocal. He’s a leader in the room. He likes to have fun with the guys and talk with the guys whether he’s playing or not. You can’t say enough about him. He has set his mind to something this year and he’s following through. You’ve always got to give young guys credit for that. And then having Ben Bishop here has been great, he’s probably pushing Robin. He’s just a consummate pro. He’s there every day whether he plays or not and he’s a joy to have around. He really makes things calm for our defence when he’s in there because he can play that puck so well. I’m sure that’s a benefit for Robin to see and learn and work with too.

There’s nothing new here, but I’m reminded that no one in the organisation (player or coach) seems to refers to Ben Bishop by his first name; the seeming lack of familiarity has always struck me as odd, although maybe I just don’t remember seeing a quote where he’s just “Ben”.  Richardson then talked about Stephane Da Costa‘s slow start:

Consistency is something that he is probably going to have to work on. He came back from his first stint with injuries at the beginning of the year and I think he was good and bad, and he knew it. He was frustrated and sometimes, as just as an offensive guy, you think you have to take chances and create things when they’re not there and you basically create more problems for yourself and everybody else on the ice by doing that; you end up chasing defensively more than when you have the puck offensively. We talked to him about that and he already knew. Good players already know when you come to talk to them about something that needs to be adjusted. I think his work ethic when he was injured really rose and he really knew. He said, ‘I’ve got to get stronger.’ He really worked hard and he continues to work hard and he is becoming more of a two-way player where he can track (the puck). And when he puts his mind to it, he can… I forget where we were… I think it was Albany, he did a great job on the road in the third period in a tight game using his body, checking in the defensive zone and getting pucks out when we had the lead at the end of the game instead of worrying about making a fancy play or a long neutral zone pass through the middle (of the ice). I think that’s the part of the game where he’s really understanding where and when he has to be that dynamic offensive player and when he just has to play hockey the rest of the time. He’s coming along. He is playing well. He’s playing with Mike Hoffman and Jakob Silfverberg right now and they’re doing a great job of leading us offensively and doing some great stuff on the power play. So we just look for him to consistently go and get better and be that man every night.

Needless to say, anyone who gets to play with Silfverberg looks like a better player (Pat Cannone hasn’t been the same since he was taken off his line).  Finally, Richardson pointed to Derek Grant as someone who has surprised him this year:

If you look at his play and his numbers are probably impressive, especially the shorthanded goal department, but if you watched him play now and you watched him play last year… just taking charge as a big centerman, getting physical and being able to play against the top line on the other team every night  and do a great job. And he’s got the dynamic part where he can check them so well that when they turn the puck over, he’s dangerous offensively. The other night again, it was a 2-1 game and him and David Dziurzynski in the neutral zone just intercepted pucks and disrupted their whole power play. (They) ended up creating a breakaway chance and put the game away for us with a nice shorthanded goal. I think it’s about his fourth or fifth goal shorthanded; he leads the league in that department. Just taking charge all over the ice, it’s great to see. He’s a NHL body and he’s got a NHL stride and now he’s starting to show the other intangibles that go along with it – where he’s a name that has really jumped up not just in the AHL but also in the depth chart of the Ottawa Senators.

Grant isn’t a completely off-the-radar player, but has lacked the hype other prospects have received.  Before he was drafted a scout said:

He’s got so much potential ahead of him that he might be better than (Camrose center Joe) Colborne.

Whatever you think of Joe Colborne he was highly touted when drafted.  TSN’s Shane Malloy chimmed in after Grant decided to turn pro:

Perhaps the best sleeper pick in the 2008 NHL draft was Derek Grant, who has played in relative obscurity with the Langley Chiefs in the BCHL. The 6-foot-3, 190 pound pivot has pretty decent overall hockey sense and dominated his peer group at that level. Over the past two seasons Grant posted 123 points in 92 games, scoring 49 goals and five game winners. His pucks skills are also good and he showed the ability to play in traffic while stickhandling or passing the puck. When it comes to skating, Grant gets off the mark pretty quickly and has the agility to maneuver around defenders. He could use some extra power in his stride and that will come once he adds strength to his core. His defensive game is slowly improving when it comes to protecting the puck along the wall and working well with his linemates. He still needs to make sure he keeps his feet moving while using his wingspan and stick to disrupt passing lanes. Grant is not a bang and crash style of player but he gets involved and will go to the dirty areas to score goals. Next season, Grant will attend Michigan State. Expect Ottawa to be patient with his development.

The Sens have to be pleased that Grant has been able to transition from scorer to defensive specialist.  It will be interesting to watch his development continue.

-One of my readers has pointed to an Almtuna Tweet that indicates Mike Lundin was injured a few days ago; the injury requires surgery and the defensman is expected to miss a few weeks.

-Elmira plays Reading (23-7-2) tonight; the Royals are lead by former B-Sen Yannick Tifu (31 points) and backstopped by Philipp Grubauer (18-4-1 2.28 .912).

–Elliotte Friedman provides a sensible recap of the different bargaining positions between the NHL and NHLPA, but I’m curious why he thinks fans etc will “never forget” the lockout.  Presumably he means that in a tangible way, but he provides no reasoning behind it–does he anticipate it will hurt the league long term?  I have no idea and I wish he’d expand on the comment.

–Luke Fox wastes an enormous amount of energy complaining about a possible expansion of the playoff system in the NHL (from 16 teams to 20) without once referencing the fact that the current near 50-50 split is very recent.  Fans care about the playoffs and adding a few more teams is only going to help (as it has with MLB).  I grew up in the 21-team era and despite occasional absurdities it remains one of the most exciting eras in NHL history–there’s no shame it making a tiny nod back to that time.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 4, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

-I watched this morning’s disappointing Canada-US WJC game (5-1 for the States), featuring a tentative Canadian team that created virtually no offensive pressure.  Would I have pulled Malcolm Subban after the third goal?  I would have pulled him after the second or at least after the first period–it’s something that might have changed the momentum of the game.  At 4-0 the game was already over and there’s nothing Jordan Binnington can do about.  I don’t blame Subban for the result–in a single game elimination anything can happen and I think the time off hurt Canada–they will be much better in the bronze medal game.  The final is set-up very well for the Americans who are coming off two easy wins and will face a Swedish team which just finished winning a tough extra frame game against Russia.

-The Sweden-Russia (3-2 Swedes) game saw the Swedes on top of the hosts at the start (it took 25 minutes of game play for Russia to get a shot on goal), although the Russians received much stronger goaltending from Vasilevski than Canada did against the States.  Like most Sens fans I have a soft spot for the Swedes and they were absolutely dynamite mid-way through.  I thought the Russians played with whole tournament with poor structure, relying on skill, and that lack of structure hurt them early.  Unlike Canada, the Russians were able to claw their way back into the game and take it to OT where the Swedes struggled with the 4-on-4 in OT, but were able to hold on to win in the shootout.

-The game was my first viewing of prospect Mikael Wikstrand (Vikstrand) outside a development camp context.  Plays that stood out: he did a great job defensively one-on-one against Yakupov in the first period, along with a nice pass intercept on the PK in the second, but got stripped by Yakupov for a scoring chance late in the second and then burned by him on a deke late in the third.  There was a final nice defensive strip of Slepyshev late in the game.  He failed to score in the shootout.

-I decided to find out what happened to Elmira’s first cuts from this season:
Players without a team include Yegor Bezugly (forward),  Tim D’Orazio (forward), Charles Vaillancourt (forward), Jon Vaillancourt (forward), Ivan Lyaskevich (blueliner), Kyle Pelke (blueliner), Nicolas Lareau (goaltender retired after being cut)
Players with a team:
Matt Harrington – forward has played both for the Bluefins (FHL) and the Mississippi Riverkings (SPHL)
Luke Frey – blueliner is playing for the New York Bluefins in the FHL
Artem Gumenyuk – defenseman is also playing for the Bluefins in the FHL
Jeremy Narducci – blueliner is on the Bluefins (FHL) roster

-Does anyone remember the hype surrounding Luca Caputi when the Leafs traded for him in 2010?  Today he was sent back to Fort Wayne in the ECHL as he struggles to stick with Norfolk.  I bring this up just to show how easy it is for organisations to over evaluate (and over hype) talent.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 3, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

–James Gordon writes briefly about Luke Richardson’s selection to coach in the AHL all-star game and rightly points out the rookie bench boss is benefiting from fantastic goaltending (particularly from Robin Lehner).

-Speaking of goaltending, ECHL ‘tender Marc Cheverie has fallen on hard times since being named the ECHL goaltender of the month for October.  He’s since gone 5-8-1 and seen his GAA go from 1.52 to 2.75 and his save percentage drop from .953 to .912.  His overall numbers aren’t terrible (he’s 16th in the league for GAA), but I wonder if he’s done enough to push the moribund Nathan Lawson if the lockout ends.

–SensProspects is Tweeting that a deal is eminent between the NHL and NHLPA (no later than the 7th apparently), which either makes him a genius or foolish depending on what happens.  I, with the rest of you, will take a wait-and-see approach.

-I watched the very entertaining WJC Russia-Switzerland game (won by Russia 4-3 in a shootout).  It featured a little of everything, including poor officiating, lead changes, and late game dramatics.  When I don’t have a vested interest in the outcome of a game I cheer for the underdog, so it’s too bad the Swiss couldn’t shut the door in the third with a 3-2 lead.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 2, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-Binghamton rang in the new year with a 4-1 win over the IceCaps.  Ben Bishop made 29-saves for the win while Mike Hoffman (off a fantastic pass from Silfverberg), Shane Prince (great pass from Schneider), Derek Grant (another short-handed goal!), and Mark Stone (empty-netter) provided the offence.  Here’s the box score and the highlights.

-The B-Sens currently lead the AHL in winning percentage (.707), although they remain 2nd place in their conference.  Their performance has earned an AHL all-star spot for coach Luke Richardson.

-Both Daniel New and Darren Kramer have been loaned back to Elmira; neither player suited up for Binghamton while on the roster.

-The long-injured Mika Zibanejad has begun skating again.  This news not only puts to bed all the fuss about Zibanejad not playing in the WJC, but presumably signals the ticking of the clock for his return (which may still be a long way away).  Zibanejad last played November 24th.

-Elmira defeated Wheeling 3-2 last night with Jack Downing picking up a couple of goals while Louie Caporusso and Dustin Gazley had a point each.

-The Canada-Russia game yesterday did not match the epic contests we’ve become accustomed too.  The game was over when Canada made it 3-1, but even prior to that the Russians struggled offensively.

–Nichols looks at how the NHL’s latest CBA proposal would affect the Senators and other than agreeing that Bryan Murray is in an excellent position when a deal is struck I wanted to applaud the idea of a weighted draft lottery for all non-playoff teams as well as remind us all of:

At issue was a story last week in The Ottawa Citizen written by columnist Roy MacGregor. The article contended that after the Senators’ final game of the season—a 4-2 loss to the Boston Bruins on April 14 that allowed Ottawa to finish with one victory fewer than the San Jose Sharks and thus clinch the right to draft first—Firestone had cryptically mentioned to MacGregor a secret plan to assure that the Senators would pick No. 1. MacGregor further contended that on June 26, in an off-the-record bull session with four other reporters in a Quebec City nightclub following the draft, he had asked Firestone to elaborate on his remark of 10 weeks earlier. According to MacGregor, Firestone said that the Senators were prepared to pull their goalie to make sure Boston won; that it had been difficult “keeping the restraints” on Bowness over the final weeks of the season; and that Firestone himself had had a plan to guarantee four players roster spots for next season if those players helped assure a loss to the Bruins. “It is no coincidence,” MacGregor said Firestone told him, “that those four players will be back with the team next season.” None of the other reporters in attendance that night have publicly challenged the gist of MacGregor’s account.

-I missed last week’s prospect update during the hubbub of the Christmas season, but here is the latest (for players with more than 10 games played I’ve indicated where they are in scoring; for blueliners they are compared to other defensemen on the team):

CHL
Cody Ceci (OHL Ottawa) 38-10-27-37 (1st)
Matt Puempel (OHL Kitchener) 26-21-7-28 (1st) (injured)
Stefan Noesen (OHL Plymouth) 26-17-9-26 (6th) (suspended)
Jordan Fransoo (WHL Victoria) 30-2-7-9 (t-2nd)
Jakub Culek (QMJHL Cape Breton) 8-4-3-7 (9th) (injured)
Jarrod Maidens (OHL Owen Sound) (injured)
Chris Driedger (WHL Calgary) 19-7-3 2.23 .923
Francois Brassard (QMJHL Quebec) 18-10-3 2.66 .907

Allsvenskan (Swe)
Mikael Wikstrand (Mora) 29-9-9-18 (1st) WJC 4-0-4-4 (1st)

KHL
Nikita Filatov (Salavat) 33-8-11-19 (t-2nd)

NCAA
Ryan Dzingel (Ohio) – 20-9-8-17 (1st)
Jeff Costello (Notre Dame) – 15-5-9-14 (4th) (injured)
Bryce Aneloski (Nebraska-Omaha) – 20-3-11-14 (1st)
Max McCormick (Ohio) – 20-6-4-10 (3rd)
Michael Sdao (Princeton) – 14-4-4-8 (1st)
Tim Boyle (Union) – 9-0-2-2

USHL
Robbie Baillargeon (Indiana/Omaha) – 29-10-11-21 (t-1st)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 1, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-Binghamton faces the St. John’s Ice Caps (15-17-1) tonight; St. John’s is lead by Derek Meech (with only 17 points) and backstopped by Eddie Pasquale (8-11-1 2.57 .919).

-Elmira plays Wheeling (13-11-6) this afternoon; the Nailers are lead by Paul Crowder (24 points) and backstopped by Scott Darling (6-5-1 2.89 .884).  This will be Ben Blood‘s last chance to get a professional point in 2012.

-Everyone is going to be watching the Russia-Canada WJC game this morning–enjoy!  I will have to see it after the fact and I hope it’s a good one.

-Various journalists are providing a 2012 year in a review, but I don’t think the calendar year works well in a hockey context.  There were six months of (mostly) exciting action leading to the Stanley Cup, which was followed by months of tedious CBA negotiations.  For me, in terms of the blog, the most fun I had was researching my NHL success story articles (like this).  It’s the kind of information that has always interested me, but been hard to find.

–The 6th Sens‘ Scott sent me some feedback on my comment yesterday about the NHL in the era before the shootout in relation to ties.  He pointed to a Phil Birnbaum blog from 2007 (using Phil’s own research), updated mid-season in 2010 (based on a Gabriel Desjardins article), that shows more games going into OT since the NHL began to award the loser point.  Here’s Birnbaum’s case:

When an NHL team loses a game in overtime or in a shootout, it still gets a point in the standings. That means that, for overtime games, three points are divided between the two teams. But for non-overtime games, only two points are divided. So teams have an incentive to allow more games to go into overtime.

Desjardins makes the argument more vociferously:

Teams seem to have figured out that dragging 10 games to the shootout is as good as winning five more games in regulation and can vault a team into the playoffs. Therefore, the weaker team on any given night has an incentive to first get the game to overtime, where it is guaranteed at least a point. Then, in the five-minute extra period, the team tries to reach a shootout, where it can nab another point.

It’s an interesting sentiment which may be perfectly valid, but I wish there was better data used for the argument.  Birnbaum only has stats for two seasons (97-99) prior to points awarded in OT.  This is much too small a sample to use as a basis for comparison (this isn’t necessarily Birnbaum’s fault, as he couldn’t find the numbers, but it causes problems and I’m not sure why he couldn’t simply look at the standings year-by-year and do the math).  There’s no explanation offered for the significant uptick in games going into OT in the 02-03/03-04 seasons which the post-lockout era hasn’t come close to approaching (presumably the incentive noted above should see a steady increase).  Birnbaum’s and Desjardins’ numbers (where they overlap) have slight differences (.229 and .230 to .228 and .228) which I assume is due to how they rounded the numbers.  Desjardins’ “dramatic increase” is still well below the 02-03 peak in ties (.252), a fact which deserves some explanation given that his thesis is that the shootout is the cause for the upswing.

I think there’s some substance to the argument, although I’m not sure teams rolling the dice on OT and shootout is enough of a factor to explain the (apparent) increase in ties.  I’d like to see numbers that go much further back (into the 80s at least) in order to get a sense of what is going on.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 31, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

-Binghamton won again last night with a 2-1 effort over Rochester.  Robin Lehner made 26-saves for the win while Derek Grant and Corey Cowick provided the offence.  Chris Wideman (playing in place of Fredrik Claesson) earned his first AHL point in his fifteenth game.  Here are the highlights.

-Elmira lost 6-5 to Fort Wayne last night with Marc Cheverie earning the loss and both Dustin Gazley and Louie Caporusso picking up single points.

–Ian C. McLaren writes about Jakob Silfverberg, but like his previous articles there’s nothing new here (you can sum it up with “he’s doing well and should be a pretty good NHL player”).

–Adrian Dater offers up predictions for 2013, some of which I’ll comment on:
2. The NHL will expand by two teams, suggesting Quebec and Seattle
I think this is possible, although it is just as likely that two existing teams will relocate
3. New rule changes will be made to add excitement to the game
This seems a virtual certainty, although I don’t share Dater’s enthusiasm for eliminating the trapezoid nor the loser point in OT; the latter was installed as much to prevent teams playing for ties (leading to boring defensive hockey), while the trapezoid helps teams forecheck effectively.  A full two-minute powerplay (Dater’s other suggestion) is something I like
10. The fans will come back
I don’t doubt this at all–the hardcore fans will never leave, while casual fans will continue to flock to winners just like they always do

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 30, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

-Binghamton plays Rochester (15-11-3) tonight.  The Amerks are lead by T. J. Brennan (29 points) and backstopped by David Leggio (14-8-1 3.12 .904).  The B-Sens beat Rochester 5-1 in their last meeting.

-Here are highlights from Binghamton’s win over Albany last night.

–Nichols wonders if Binghamton can keep up their winning ways:

Despite being outshot in 17 of their 27 games by a shot differential of -118 and owning the league’s worst shots allowed per game (36.4 shots/game) mark in the league, somehow the Senators have managed to outscore the opposition 90-70. They are three shots per game worse than 29th ranked Norfolk (33.4). The team they are in spitting distance of for the division and conference lead, Syracause, is giving up only 24.8…or 11.6 shots per game fewer than the B-Sens.

Operating at an 87.7% success rate, Bingo has the second best penalty killing unit in the league and it leads the AHL with 8 shorthanded goals for. Nonetheless, the fact that the team is so heavily reliant on the Silfverberg line to score goals and on Robin Lehner (11-4-1-1, 1.93 GAA, .943 SV%) and Ben Bishop (6-3-1-0, 2.89 GAA, .926 SV%) to bail them out has to disconcerting. It’s an old maxim for a reason — ‘show me a good coach and I’ll show you a good goalie’.

Binghamton does give up an enormous number of shots, but the goaltending really is that good.  If an NHL season is salvaged and Ben Bishop plays in Ottawa that will put more pressure on Robin Lehner, but he seems up to the task this year.  Nichols also offers his opinion on Mark Stone (attributing his modest offensive numbers to playing on a checking line, which I think is correct), as well as offering up more words from Luke Richardson about Jakob Silfverberg:

I don’t know if they have any goals of his on Youtube or that… this guy can shoot a puck. I don’t understand how someone can get this much on their (shot)… It’s a heavy, heavy shot and the release is scary. He loves (going) glove and I can say it because it doesn’t matter. He scored two goals the other night in Rochester – one on a half-breakaway and the other one was in a shootout which is really a breakaway. The goaltender, I don’t care, he can know that he’s going over his glove or he can put his glove there and (Silfverberg) still beats him. (His shot) is that hard and that fast. It’s wicked. He’s finding it for sure in probably the last month. I talked to him the other day a little bit after practice, I knew he was finding it and he is finding it a lot more comfortable out there and even the physicality, this guy is a competitor. He is not afraid of anything. Not to compare him to Daniel Alfredsson, but he reminds me of him; very shy off the ice but when he gets revved up on the bench, he’ll come off just like anybody else – yelling and screaming and mad when things don’t work out. And if someone takes a run at him, he’ll go back out there and he’ll get right in that guy’s space and give him a little bit of a shot. He’s a big guy and strong but he can really take over a game. He’s smart. Defensively, he’s a real key to our penalty killing unit. We’ve got him now playing with Mike Hoffman and (Stephane) Da Costa, so it’s a pretty potent offensive line… He’s going to be a guy that when the lockout ends, unfortunately he won’t be in the (AHL) long for me, but to his credit, he’s a world class player and he deserves to be in the best league when it gets going.

The comments about Silfverberg‘s shot echo what Pierre Dorion (and others) in the Sens organisation have said before.

-Elmira defeated Evansville 6-3 last night, with Jack Downing enjoying a three point night, Dustin Gazley picking up two points, and Louie Caporusso adding a goal.  Elmira plays the Fort Wayne Komets (15-13-2) tonight; the Komets are lead by Brandon Marino (36 points) and backstopped by Ken Reiter (8-6-1 2.90 .911).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 29, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment