The Hockey Writers NHL 2013 Draft Collection

The Hockey Writers website provides a smorgasbord of draft information and I thought I would post both their top-30 list (they provide the top-120 on the site), latest mock draft, as well as their attempt to blend Central Scouting‘s four-pronged rankings into a sensible, single list.  I haven’t used THW as part of my draft analysis for the last couple of years after they bombed out on the 2010 draft (ranking as the least accurate predictor for that season), but that doesn’t mean their opinions aren’t worth looking at (and as a free source, it’s handy for draft fans).

In their most recent mock draft Carl Maloney has Ottawa picking Curtis Lazar, writing:

A polished two way product, Lazar is effective in all three zones. He’s also an excellent skater with a high hockey IQ. Thought at one point to be a top ten pick, he brings character and intangibles as well and could eventually be a steal at #17. Projects as a solid, second line centre for the Sens down the road.

Their top-30:

1. Seth Jones
2. Nathan MacKinnon
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Aleksander Barkov
5. Elias Lindholm
6. Sean Monahan
7. Rasmus Ristolainen
8. Nikita Zadorov
9. Hunter Shinkaruk
10. Darnell Nurse
11. Max Domi
12. Frederik Gautheir
13. Alexander Wennberg
14. Bo Horvat
15. Ryan Pulock
16. Josh Morrissey
17. Valeri Nichushkin
18. Anthony Mantha
19. Curtis Lazar
20. Samuel Morin
21. Adam Erne
22. Andre Burakovsky
23. Valentin Zykov
24. Steve Santini
25. Kerby Rychel
26. Ryan Hartman
27. Madison Bowey
28. Mirco Mueller
29. Laurent Dauphin
30. Jacob de la Rose

There are differences between THW’s list and most others (Valeri Nichushkin is far lower than all other lists), although there’s no radical selections included (players with low rankings elsewhere appearing in their top-30).

Finally, Christopher Ralph‘s attempts to create a master list from the four-part mess that is Central Scouting‘s draft rankings.  The effort is laudable, but his methodology could use some work–here it is:

For the two rounds I took TSN’s Bob MacKenzie’s mid-term draft rankings and inserted the player from the European or Goalie rankings where Bob MacKenzie’s ranking suggested. For the remaining rounds, I simply inserted 5 European skaters and 2-3 goalies per round based on the average for the 2011 and 2012 drafts.

MacKenzie is a good source to use for smoothing out the disparate lists (although there’s no way to know how well his opinions mesh with those at CS), but I wish there was more to it than that.  If there’s one thing CS provides that’s a poor indicator of players being picked it’s their European rankings (3 of their top-20 Euro’s were not drafted last year, for instance), but that has no bearing on where they would select a player.  There’s no rhyme or reason for where European players are inserted into the list once Ralph has finished with MacKenzie’s picks, although given what he has to work with it’s likely as good as anyone can do.  Here’s his combined top-30:

1. Seth Jones
2. Nathan MacKinnon
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Aleksander Barkov
5. Valeri Nichushkin
6. Darnell Nurse
7. Elias Lindholm
8. Sean Monahan
9. Hunter Shinkaruk
10. Rasmus Ristolainen
11. Alexander Wennberg
12. Valentin Zykov
13. Frederik Gauthier
14. Andre Burakovsky
15. Mirco Mueller
16. Anthony Mantha
17. Shea Theodore
18. Ryan Pulock
19. Zach Nastasiuk
20. Chris Bigras
21. Bo Horvat
22. Zachary Fucale
23. Ryan Hartman
24. Kerby Rychel
25. William Carrier
26. Jacob de la Rose
27. Max Domi
28. Curtis Lazar
29. Robert Hagg
30. Jimmy Lodge

It’s an interesting list, albeit can’t be definitive until CS finally combines its rankings.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 11, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Assessing NHL Draft Guides

With all the major hockey draft guides out it’s time to compare what they offer versus their cost.  Each guide has two common elements: players listed numerically along with player profiles (sometimes comprehensive, sometimes selective).  The guides may have mock drafts, organisational comments, and/or a look at eligible overage players and European free agents.  Other elements often included are a look at top players for the 2014 and 2015 drafts, but I don’t put much stock in them as I don’t see the value in that information.

I’ve arranged the guides by their cost:

ISS $59.95
Players listed: 220 (divided between skaters and goaltenders)
Player profiles: all
Organisational assessment: yes, but only as a grade and a list of “top prospects”
Mock draft: yes
Overage eligible/European free agents: no

RLR $50.00
Players listed: 315
Player profiles: top-115
Organisational assessment: yes (comprehensive)
Mock draft: yes (two of them)
Overage eligible/European free agents: yes

Hockey Prospects $39.99
Players listed: 210
Player profiles: all (including additional players who do not make their top-210)
Organisational assessment: no
Mock draft: no
Overage eligible/European free agents: no
Other: includes game reports on players

McKeen’s $30.00
Players listed: 120 (plus 32 honourable mentions or sleepers)
Player profiles: all
Organisational assessment: no
Mock draft: no
Overage eligible/European free agents: no

Future Considerations $19.99
Players listed: 210
Player profiles: all
Organisational assessment: no
Mock draft: yes
Overage eligible/European free agents: no

The Hockey News $4.99
Players listed: 100
Player profiles: top-60
Organisational assessment: yes
Mock draft: no
Overage eligible/European free agents: no

Red Line Report lists the most players (315), while The Hockey News has the fewest (100).  Hockey Prospects has the most player profiles (more than ISS’ 220), while THN has the fewest (60).  RLR has the most comprehensive organisational analysis and the most mock drafts (2).  Only RLR looks at eligible overage draft players or European free agents, while only Hockey Prospects includes actual game reports as analysis.  When it comes to pure cost for value Future Considerations is the best bargain while McKeen’s provides the least amount of value for the cost.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 9, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

Hockey Prospect’s 2013 NHL Draft Guide

The Hockey Prospect’s 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s go here and for their accuracy go here):

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Seth Jones
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Valeri Nichushkin
5. Aleksander Barkov
6. Sean Monahan
7. Elisa Lindholm
8. Nikita Zadorov
9. Rasmus Ristolainen
10. Max Domi
11. Bo Horvat
12. Alexander Wennberg
13. Valentin Zykov
14. Zach Fucale
15. Madison Bowey
16. Darnell Nurse
17. Joshua Morrissey
18. Samuel Morin
19. Anthony Mantha
20. Ryan Hartman
21. Curtis Lazar
22. Adam Erne
23. Morgan Klimchuk
24. Hunter Shinkaruk
25. Nicolas Petan
26. Chris Bigras
27. Emile Poirier
28. Kerby Rychel
29. Frederik Gauthier
30. Ryan Pulock

This is the so-called “Black Book” edition from Hockey Prospect‘s (their smaller, less expensive version is sold out–or so I presume, as I never saw it as ‘in stock’ on their website) and it has more girth than any other draft publication (nearly 700 pages).  It does not include any specific organisational material or a mock draft.  The bulk is made up of scouting profiles (for all 210 players listed and more) and lengthy scouting reports from various games and events.  The game reports are the one unique element for the product which is something that will appeal to a small slice of the fandom.  The product is a little more expensive than Future Considerations‘ guide, but cheaper than ISS, so among the full-listing guides it’s the kind of thing that is only going to appeal to hardcore draft fans.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 5, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

McKeen’s 2013 NHL Draft Guide

McKeen’s 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s review go here) [June 7th: McKeen’s has just updated their issue and I’ve included relevant material below]:

1. Seth Jones
2. Nathan MacKinnon
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Elias Lindholm
5. Aleksander Barkov
6. Valeri Nichushkin
7. Nikita Nadorov
8. Darnall Nurse
9. Max Domi
10. Samuel Morin
11. Sean Monahan
12. Curtis Lazar
13. Alexander Wennberg
14. Bo Horvat
15. Ryan Pulock
16. Andre Burakowsky
17. Mirco Mueller
18. Josh Morrissey
19. Robert Hagg
20. Adam Erne
21. Rasmus Ristolainen
22. Hunter Shinkaruk
23. Frederik Gauthier
24. Anthony Mantha
25. Kerby Rychel
26. Emile Poirer
27. Chris Bigras
28. Zachary Fucale
29. Ian McCoshen
30. Tommy Vannelli

There’s no mock draft, no organisational assessments, or anything other than scouting profiles for their 120-player list.  McKeen’s offers less material than most other guides (it’s slightly more than The Hockey News, but nearly seven times the cost), and is considerably more expensive than a more thorough guide like Future Considerations.   This is not something a draft junkie or a casual fan needs to get hold of.  [June 7th additions: 20 honourable mentions (listed alphabetically) along with 12 sleepers (also alphabetically).  Each player is given a scouting report, which is great, but without being organised they are less useful than other sources where players are numerically listed.]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 4, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Future Considerations 2013 NHL Draft Guide

Future Considerations 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings and my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s go here; for their predictive accuracy go here):

1). D Seth Jones, Portland, WHL, 6-4, 205

2). C/RW Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax, QMJHL, 6-0, 180

3). C/LW Jonathan Drouin, Halifax, QMJHL, 5-11, 175

4). C Aleksander Barkov, Tappara, SM-liiga, 6-2, 205

5). RW Valeri Nichushkin, Traktor Chelyabinsk, KHL, 6-4, 200

6). C Elias Lindholm, Brynas, Elitserien, 6-0, 185

7). D Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste. Marie, OHL, 6-5, 195

8). C Sean Monahan, Ottawa, OHL, 6-2, 195

9). LW Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat, WHL, 5-10, 170

10). C/LW Max Domi, London, OHL, 5-10, 195

11). D Nikita Zadorov, London, OHL, 6-5, 225

12). D Rasmus Ristolainen, TPS, SM-Liiga, 6-3, 205

13). LW Alexander Wennberg, Djurgården, Allsvenskan, 6-0, 175

14). D Ryan Pulock, Brandon, WHL, 6-1, 210

15). D Josh Morrissey, Prince Albert, WHL, 6-0, 185

16). C Frederik Gauthier, Rimouski, QMJHL, 6-5, 215

17). C Curtis Lazar, Edmonton, WHL, 6-0, 195

18). LW Anthony Mantha, Val-d ‘Or, QMJHL, 6-3, 200

19). LW Valentin Zykov, Baie-Comeau, QMJHL, 6-0, 210

20). D Shea Theodore, Seattle, WHL, 6-2, 175

21). LW Morgan Klimchuk, Regina, WHL, 5-11, 180

22). RW Ryan Hartman, Plymouth, OHL, 5-11, 185

23). C Bo Horvat, London, OHL, 6-0, 195

24). D Robert Hägg, Modo J20, SuperElit, 6-2, 205

25). LW André Burakovsky, Malmo, Allsvenskan, 6-1, 175

26). LW Kerby Rychel, Windsor, OHL, 6-1, 200

27). C Nic Petan, Portland, WHL, 5-9, 165

28). RW Adam Erne, Quebec, QMJHL, 6-0, 200

29). C J.T. Compher, U-17 USDP, USHL, 6-0, 165

30). C Connor Hurley, Edina, USHS, 6-1, 175

31). D Madison Bowey, Kelowna, WHL, 6-1, 195

In FC‘s mock draft they have Ottawa selecting Samuel Morin, saying:

They need have some talent coming but could boost their defensive pool. Ottawa is the first to go off the board as they take this big kid who has jumped up many lists after a very impressive season of development. They like his size, willingness to use that size and upside, especially in his own zone.

Last year they expected Ottawa to take Hampus Lindholm, but the Swede was no longer on the board when Ottawa made their selection.  The Sens rarely draft for need so expect them to take the best player available.  FC‘s mock draft extends through the second round, but the Sens don’t have a second-rounder to select this year so there’s nothing further to examine.

There’s no assessment of the organisation beyond the above comment, but they do offer a comment about the quality of this year’s draft:

We do not see a generational talent in this current draft crop. We do however project one franchise talent in Portland defenseman in Seth Jones. After Jones, we project upwards of seven ‘elite’ level talents with another forty plus ‘skilled’ prospects. That is where the strength of this class comes from, the depth of skilled talent as well as the amount of elite talent at the top. There is more than few ‘depth’ guys, many with good NHL size too, sprinkled around a bunch of wildcards that ultimately could make this a class to remember.

The guide contains profiles of varying extent for all 210 prospects listed and at less than half the cost of ISS and over 30% cheaper than McKeen’s it’s a worthwhile product to buy for draft enthusiasts.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 1, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

ISS 2013 Draft Guide

The ISS 2013 NHL draft guide has been released and here’s my look at the guide (for last year’s go here).  ISS does not rank goaltenders and skaters together (20 of the former, 200 of the latter), making them the only purchased draft product that fails to make a unified list (Central Scouting separates their lists ever more radically, but it’s a free service).  ISS was dead last in drafting acumen (you can check it out here).  Here is their top-30 (which differs slightly from what they just released).

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Seth Jones
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Valery Nichushkin
5. Sasha Barkov
6. Darnell Nurse
7. Elias Lindholm
8. Nikita Zadorov
9. Sean Monahan
10. Bo Horvat
11. Rasmus Ristolainen
12. Curtis Lazar
13. Hunter Shinkaruk
14. Ryan Pulock
15. Alexander Wennberg
16. Andre Burakowsky
17. Steve Santini
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Valentin Zykov
20. Kerby Rychel
21. Joshua Morrissey
22. Madison Bowey
23. Michael McCarron
24. Anthony Mantha
25. Max Domi
26. J.T. Compher
27. Dillon Heatherington
28. Ian McCoshen
29. Nic Petan
30. Chris Bigras

Zachary Fucale is their top goaltender, followed by Tristan Jarry and Eamon McAdam.

ISS assessed each team’s prospect pool assigning them a grade and here’s how the league looks to them:

A
Edmonton
B+
Ottawa, Philadelphia, Washington, Boston, Winnipeg, St. Louis, Chicago
B
Anaheim, Minnesota, Florida, Montreal, New York Islanders,
B-
Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Buffalo, Phoenix, Nashville, Los Angeles, Colorado
C+
Columbus, Calgary, Detroit, Vancouver, New Jersey, Carolina,
C
Dallas
C-
San Jose

Last year ISS ranked Ottawa’s prospects with a B grade.  They’ve listed Patrick Wiercioch, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jakob Silfverberg, and Ben Blood (of all people) as “on the horizon”.  Unlike last year there’s no list of team needs, but the players selected above match the 2012 list minus Robin Lehner (presumably graduated) and Ben Bishop (now “on the horizon” for Tampa).  In their mock draft they have the Sens picking Andre Burakowsky, saying:

Burakowsky plays the game with a lot of skill. His game seemed to fall off a little this year and he slipped in the rankings according. He could be a steal if he regains his mojo.

This is a very expensive product and isn’t meant for casual draft fans.  It’s a useful guide for serious fantasy/draft fans who want scouting reports for all listed prospects, but that’s the only thing that separates it from inexpensive alternatives like The Hockey News.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 29, 2013
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

The Hockey News 2013 NHL Draft Guide

The Hockey News‘ NHL draft preview is out on the stands for a bit and I thought I would take a look at it (here is my preview of THN last year and here is a look at the success of their prognostication).  For the sake of comparison I’ve bracketed the differences from ISS’ latest rankings (which can be found here, keeping in mind ISS ranks goaltenders separately and NR simply means the player is not in ISS’ top-30).  This is not a comprehensive guide (like Red Line Report), instead being like McKeen’s in offering a top-100 list.

1 – Seth Jones – D – Portland – WHL
2 – Jonathan Drouin – F – Halifax – QMJHL (3)
3 – Nathan MacKinnon – C – Halifax – QMJHL (2)
4 – Elias Lindholm – C – Brynas – SweE (7)
5 – Valery Nichushkin – F – Chelyabinsk Chelmet – RusS (4)
6 – Aleksander Barkov – F – Tappara – FinE (5)
7 – Sean Monahan – C – Ottawa – OHL (9)
8 – Darnell Nurse – D – S.S. Marie – OHL (6)
9 – Lazar, Curtis – C – Edmonton – WHL (12)
10 – Ryan Pulock – D – Brandon – WHL (14)
11 – Alexander Wennberg – C – Djurgarden – SweJr (NR) (15)
12 – Robert Hagg – D – Modo – SweJE (NR)
13 – Adam Erne – LW – Quebec – QMJHL (NR)
14 – Nikita Zadorov – D – London – OHL (8)
15 –Max Domi – C – London – OHL (25)
16 –Bo Horvat – C – London – OHL (NR) (10)
17 – Andre Burakowsky – F – Malmo – SweAl (16)
18 – Mirco Mueller – D – Prince Albert – WHL (NR)
19 – J. T. Morrissey – D – Prince Albert – WHL (21)
20 – Samuel Morin – D – Rimouski – QMJHL (30)
21 – Kerby Rychel – F – Windsor – OHL (20)
22 – Rasmus Ristolainen – D – TPS Turku – FinE (11)
23 – Hunter Shinkaruk – F – Medicine Hat – WHL (13)
24 – Anthony Mantha – LW – QMJHL (23)
25 – Zachary Fucale – G – Halifax – QMJHL (n/a)
26 – Ian McCoshen – D – Waterloo – USHL (NR)
27 – Michael McCarron – RW – USNDP – USHL (28)
28 – Ryan Hartman – RW – OHL (NR)
29 – Jacob de la Rose – C – Leksand – SweAl (NR)
30 – Frederik Gauthier – C – Rimouski – QMJHL (18)

Just like last year Adam Proteau writes an uninspired blurb about the Senators.  After praising the Sens’ system he says they still need scoring forwards and defensemen (I’m not sure who doesn’t, but fair enough), although he calls the Sens blueline “old” which only applies to two members of their blueline (and therefore their blueline isn’t really old).  He also thinks that Eric Gryba is the only right-handed blueliner in the organisation (somehow missing Cody Ceci among others).  The only prospect named that isn’t already on the NHL roster is Mark Stone and Proteau ends the short piece by bringing up Alexandre Daigle as if that has any relevance whatsoever (different era, different GM, different organisation).

There’s a marked difference in prospect assessment by THN, which is interesting, but not compelling in and of itself (it might be if their accuracy was better).  The guide is inexpensive and easily available and offers very brief scouting reports on their top-60 prospects.  It’s a useful product for casual fans, but there’s n0t nearly enough meat or insight for those with a serious interest in the draft.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 23, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: May 16th

-Judging by how the Sens practiced today it seems like Andre Benoit will slide in to replace Eric Gryba.  There was no chance Mike Lundin would play (in my estimation).

–Travis Yost breaks down the Sens lackadaisical powerplay and talks about their poor tendencies.  It’s a very good piece and I highly recommend it.  Travis then makes the case for the Sens to have a chance in the series and I think of the two elements he discusses (goaltending and avoiding penalties) only the former is realistic and it really will rest on the shoulders of Craig Anderson for Ottawa to take the series.  Unfortunately for the Sens goaltender, his sample against Pittsburgh this season is not encouraging.

–Mark Parisi tries to find positives from the Sens loss by comparing it to their opening loss to the Rangers last year.  While there are some surface similarities, the Penguins are not the Rangers so it doesn’t seem particularly apt to me.

-ISS has released its latest 2013 draft rankings (for their previous list go here):

Rank Name Pos. Birthdate Shot H W Team League Last Rank
1 Seth Jones D 10/3/94 R 6.03.5 208 Portland WHL 1
2 Nathan MacKinnon C 9/1/95 R 6.00 182 Halifax QMJHL 3
3 Jonathan Drouin LW 3/27/95 L 5.10.75 185 Halifax QMJHL 4
4 Valeri Nichushkin RW 3/4/95 L 6.04 202 Chelyabinsk Traktor KHL 2
5 Sasha Barkov C 9/2/95 L 6.03 209 Tappara FinE 5
6 Darnell Nurse D 2/4/95 L 6.03.5 189 Sault Ste. Marie OHL 6
7 Elias Lindholm C 12/2/94 R 6.00 192 Brynas SweE 8
8 Nikita Zadorov D 4/15/95 L 6.05.25 230 London OHL 7
9 Sean Monahan C 10/12/94 L 6.02 186 Ottawa OHL 9
10 Bo Horvat C 4/5/95 L 6.00.25 200 London OHL 10
11 Rasmus Ristolainen D 10/27/94 R 6.04 207 TPS Turku FinE 11
12 Curtis Lazar C 2/2/95 R 5.11.75 193 Edmonton WHL 12
13 Hunter Shinkaruk C 10/13/94 L 5.11 175 Medicine Hat WHL 13
14 Ryan Pulock D 10/6/94 R 6.00.5 211 Brandon WHL 14
15 Alexander Wennberg C 9/22/94 L 6.01.5 190 Djurgarden SweJE 15
16 Andre Burakowsky LW 2/9/95 L 6.01.5 178 Malmo SweAl 18
17 Steve Santini D 3/7/95 R 6.01.5 207 USA Under-18 NTDP 22
18 Frederik Gauthier C 4/26/95 L 6.05 210 Rimouski QMJHL 20
19 Valentin Zykov RW 5/15/95 R 6.00 210 Baie-Comeau QMJHL 16
20 Kerby Rychel LW 10/7/94 L 6.01 200 Windsor OHL 17
21 Josh Morrissey D 3/28/95 L 5.11.75 182 Prince Albert WHL 19
22 Madison Bowey D 4/22/95 R 6.00.75 200 Kelowna WHL 27
23 Anthony Mantha LW 9/16/94 L 6.04 190 Val d’Or QMJHL 25
24 JT Compher C 4/8/95 R 5.10.5 184 USA Under-18 NTDP 21
25 Max Domi C 3/2/95 L 5.09.25 193 London OHL 26
26 Nicolas Petan C 3/22/95 L 5.08.5 163 Portland WHL 29
27 Dillon Heatherington D 5/9/95 L 6.03 196 Swift Current WHL 37
28 Michael McCarron RW 3/7/95 R 6.05 228 USA Under-18 NTDP 62
29 Chris Bigras D 2/22/95 L 6.00.5 189 Owen Sound OHL 30
30 Samuel Morin D 7/12/95 L 6.07 200 Rimouski QMJHL 45

Robert Hagg (#23), Jason Dickinson (#24), and Ryan Hartman (#28), fell out of the top-30.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 16, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Senators News: July 18th

-The Sens re-signed Jim O’Brien to a two-year, one-way contract and also re-signed Eric Gryba to a two-year, two-way contract.  Both signings were expected, although I think the Sens did well to lock both up for two years.  Tim Murray talked about Gryba:

He made big strides last year. I thought last year, the second half of the year, on some nights he was our best defenseman in Binghamton. A huge improvement over his rookie season, so we just expect him to get better and better. I think the two years gives us an opportunity to work with him some more. I believe he can come to training camp and compete for a job at the National League level. If he doesn’t make it right out of camp, we expect him to go to Binghamton and be a leader, play hard and at least be a depth guy until he achieves his goal of becoming a full-time National League player. He hope he translates into being a big, shut-down defenseman who’s hard to play against. That’s the type of style that he is playing in Binghamton. He’s got decent skills with the puck, but I think his role will be hard to play against … I think if he’s going to have success at the NHL level, that’s the style he’s going to have to play. And that’s the style we want him to play. That’s the style that he showed us in the second half last year that he can play.

And then O’Brien:

Well, very pleased to get Jimmy signed. His agent and I had a lot of talks, and they were willing to work with us to get the one-way contract, so I think we got a deal done that suits us from a money point of view, gives him two years more in the organization, gives him a little bit of stability in that he got a one-way and gives us money that we like for our young NHL players to have — so a good contract on both sides. Jimmy made huge strides last summer, came in and battled for a job in training camp but wasn’t quite there. But again, he shows our young guys, the rest of our young guys in the organization, that if you work hard and you’re a good citizen and do what we ask you to do in Binghamton, then we certainly will call you up and give you a chance. That’s what happened to Jimmy last year, and when he got up here, he showed he belonged here. He plays a bottom six role, good faceoff guy, very good penalty killer, very good speed up and down the ice and works hard — very good work ethic. So he does have an offensive game. It’s not there yet at the National Hockey League level. But we think that that, with this new contract, gives him the next two years to refine his offensive game and still do the things that our coaching staff likes about him, and that’s do the little things right and check and win draws and very good on the PK. I think, yeah, that helped him, obviously, the championship run. He was an important guy in that run at different times, so learning how to win is never a bad thing. I think the big thing with him was getting stronger. He was a long, even skinny kid if not lean, that you knew would take more time to put on muscle and put on bulk. It has taken time, so it’s just an example of, some guys are ready right out of the draft, some guys need a year or so, and some guys need a little longer. And there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel. But he shows that if you stick to it and work hard, and you get the right direction, you do have a chance. He certainly has put in the time, and hopefully the improvement just continues to go on

Murray is spot in describing both players.  I don’t think O’Brien has enough skill to move out of a fourth-line position, but he’s a useful player for the Sens.  Gryba likely tops out as a six or seventh defenseman assuming he can maintain a consistent level of play.

–Red Line Report‘s issue wrapping up the draft is out and offers reasons why some highly touted players were not selected, with both Anton Slepyshev and Alexei Bereglazov declaring their disinterest in coming to North American in the near future, while Dane Fox apparently has well-documented off-ice issues that scared NHL clubs away.  The issue only discussed the top-eleven teams in terms of a successful draft and Ottawa did not make the list (none of their players appear in the best or worst value pick list either).  I have to infer that they thought it was an average draft for the Sens.

July 18, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Looking at Ottawa’s Draft Success (05-07)

Articles reviewing draft acumen proliferate at this time of year (TSN’s Scott Cullen did one recently) and as engaging as they are I’ve always had problems with the way they are defined and presented.  Examinations of the draft that cover a long period of time fail to account for the changes in the league and the draft itself, so that the comparison isn’t particularly apt.  When articles cover more recent drafts (Hockey Futures does them at five-year intervals) they are forced to make judgements on players whose futures are yet to be defined.  All this preamble is to make two key points: 1) the attitude and approach to the NHL draft changed seismically post-lockout, 2) the typical make-or-break moment for a draft pick varies depending on what league they were drafted from.  To expand on the second point: CHL draftees take about five-years to develop (allowing for two more years of junior and then the full length of their ELC); college-bound players can take six, seven, or even eight years, depending on how much time they spend in college (eg, Ben Blood was drafted in 2007, but won’t start his ELC until the fall of 2012); European players used to be even more varied when teams kept their rights forever, but with the deals signed with the DEL, SEL, and SM-Liiga (where rights are only retained for two years) their usual range is now like the CHL (five years).

Given that, how have the Sens done with their selections?  Not enough time has passed to judge many of the post-lockout drafts, but I think I can make judgements on John Muckler’s last two drafts and give some thoughts about Bryan Murray’s first.  So, without further adieu:

2005
Muckler clearly had a hard-on for international tournaments, as every player except the one still with the Sens played in those tournaments.  Pre-KHL Muckler gambled on taking Russians who slid down the draft, but only one (Zubov) ever suited up for the organisation.  It was not a great draft for the Sens by any standard.  A few stats: there are 54/230 (23.4%) number of regular NHLers from the draft (this is based on 200+ games played and my judgement; you can judge for yourself here).  By round: 1st 19/30, 2nd 10/31, 3rd 5/30, 4th 7/34, 5th 6/36, 6th 2/31, 7th 5/36.  Players who have played over 200 games: 34 (14 1st, 6 2nd, 3 3rd, 5 4th, 2 5th, 1 6th, 3 7th); played 100-199 games: 18 (5 1st, 3 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 4th, 4 5th, 1 6th, 2 7th).  Teams that excelled: Montreal, Nashville, and Columbus each had four players make the grade, while Dallas, Detroit, the Rangers, Pittsburgh, and San Jose had three each.  Calgary, Florida, and the Islanders were the only teams to strike out.

1-9 Brian Lee (DR, US high school/USHL; WJC) – NHL (Tampa Bay); 187 NHL games played; marginal NHLer (5-6 d-man)
An enigmatic player who after five years as a professional has still not defined what kind of player he is.  He’s big, but not physical.  He makes a good first pass, but is unable to produce offensively.  He can play a limited role in the NHL, but does not dominate in the AHL.  His career, for however long it goes, will likely remain on the margins.  Many Sens fans groused about Lee because of the fantastic players taken after him (Anze Kopitar and Marc Staal), but he’s not the worst player taken in the first round (3 never played a game, 6 more played less than 50), and one can argue whether he’s better or worse than Jack Skille who was taken by Chicago at #7.  To me, the pick isn’t a complete failure, but it’s several steps removed from what it could or should have been.
3-70 Vitali Anikeyenko (DR, Russia tier-3; U-18) – deceased (Lokomotiv plane crash); bust
Other than attending one development camp (in 2005), the Sens could got a sniff of Anikeyenko, who spent the bulk of his career playing for Lokomotiv (which tragically cost him his life).  Whether he had NHL potential or not remains an open question, but judging by his KHL numbers I’d suggest he projected at best a bottom-pairing defender.  Naturally there were better picks available, including Conn Smyth winner Jonathan Quick (#72), but between his selection and the Sens next pick, only 3 (of 24) NHL regulars were selected.  The pick has to be viewed as a failure, both for the Sens inability to anticipate the problems of signing Russian players and also for not ascertaining just how interested Anikeyenko was in coming to North America.
4-95 Cody Bass (CR, OHL; U-18) – two-way contract (Columbus); 48 NHL games; AHLer
He spent four years in the Senators organisation where he helped Binghamton win the Calder Cup, but Bass remains a fringe player.  Not productive or durable enough for full-time fourth line duty in the NHL, he’s destined to bounce back and forth between leagues as a “character guy”.  Players like him are good for their organisations.  In terms of who was available between his pick and the Sens next there was depth blueliner Chris Butler (#96) and Chris VandeVelde (#97) could become an NHLer with Edmonton.  In terms of style of play, the Sens would have been better off picking Jared Boll (#101).
4-98 Ilya Zubov (C/LW, Russia tier-2; U-18); – KHL (Moscow); 11 NHL games; AHLer
The most successful of the Russian picks, he spent two years in the organisation where he established himself as a productive AHLer.  Like Bass he probably could have stayed in North America and been an occasional call-up, but he clearly did not have the talent to become a regular NHLer.  There were 5 regular NHL players over the next 17 picks (the best is Keith Yandle at #105), so plenty of better talent was available.
4-115 Janne Kolehmainen (LW, SM-Liiga; WJC) – SM-Liiga (KalPa) – bust
The last Finn selected by the Senators, there’s never been any interest expressed by the Sens to sign the big winger, whose performance flatlined the year after he was drafted.  If there’s any solace in the wasted pick it’s that only 1 NHL regular was selected over the following 21 picks (Darren Helm at #132).
5-136 Tomas Kudelka (DL, Czech junior; U-18) – Czech Elite League (HC Vitkovice) – marginal AHLer
The second-last Czech picked by the Sens (Jakub Culek was the last), he was a solid junior player in the WHL who did not excel in his three years in the AHL.  In a lot of ways he was like a less-talented Brian Lee, as he has good size, but wasn’t overly physical and his offensive game did not translate at a higher level.  There are 5 NHL regulars over the next 50 picks (granting that enforcer Ryan Reaves could stop being regular at virtually any moment), but none of those players match the talent of those missed earlier.
6-186 Dmitri Megalinsky (DL, Russia tier-3; WJC) – KHL (Novokuznetsk) – bust
Here again the Sens can be criticised for not doing their homework, because unlike Anikeyenko (one development camp) or Zubov (two years in the AHL) they never got a sniff of Megalinsky, who became a KHL regular.  There were 2 NHL regulars selected through the next 18 picks and Sergei Kostitsyn (#200) certainly would have been a better role of the dice.  Whether Megalinsky had the chops to play in the NHL remains an unresolved, but doubtful proposition.
7-204 Colin Greening (C/LW, CISAA) – NHL (Ottawa); 106 NHL games – NHL regular (top-9 forward)
The final role of the dice was the only true payoff in the draft.  I suspect Greening is the only player drafted right out of Upper Canada College.  He spent five years developing before joining the organisation and the payoff is more than could have been expected, as Greening will have a long career as a solid top-nine forward.  Two other NHL regulars came after his selection, with the best being the last (Patric Hornqvist at #230).

2006
Muckler’s last draft.  He broke his obsession with international tournament players and Russians, with all North American selections save Daugavins.  In Ottawa terms this is a much better draft with 2-4 regular NHLers coming out of it.  A few stats: there are 43/213 (20.2%) number of regular NHLers from the draft (this is based on 200+ games played and my judgement; you can judge for yourself here).  By round: 1st 19/30, 2nd 11/33, 3rd 5/30, 4th 2/30, 5th 0/30, 6th 3/30, 7th 3/30.  Players who played 200 or more games: 22 (16 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 7th), ; played 100-199 games: 15 (3 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 4th, 3 6th, 1 7th).  Teams that excelled: Toronto and Washington both picked four players, while Columbus and Boston picked three.  Calgary, Dallas, Nashville, New Jersey, and Tampa struck out.

1-28 Nick Foligno (LW, OHL) – NHL (Columbus); 351 NHL games – NHL regular (top-9 forward)
Arguably the second best pick of the draft from that point onward (behind Milan Lucic at #50), he also trumps a number of players taken before him (3 never played in the NHL, 5 have played fewer than 30 NHL games, he’s clearly better than James Sheppard (#9), Jiri Tlusty (#13), Trevor Lewis (#17), and the jury is still out on Michael Frolik (#10), Jonathan Bernier (#11) and Michael Grabner (14)).  Given that, he is a very successful selection despite his inability to firmly nail down a top-six role.
3-68 Eric Gryba (DR, USHL) – RFA (Binghamton) – marginal NHL prospect (5-6 D)
The big blueliner spent four full years in the NCAA before graduating and helping Binghamton to their first Calder Cup.  He was on the horizon for the NHL club coming into last season, but Mark Borowiecki has moved ahead of him on the depth chart.  There’s still NHL-potential for Gryba, but his ceiling isn’t particularly high.  Four regular NHLers were picked over the next 23 selections, with Brad Marchand (#71) the best.
3-91 Kaspars Daugavins (LW, Belarus; WJC)  – RFA (Ottawa); 66 NHL games – marginal NHL prospect (fourth-liner)
It has been a long road for the undersized forward to get to the NHL.  He spent three season in the CHL and then two more in Binghamton before becoming a regular.  His upside is limited and he could make more money in Europe, so I expect his future as a Sen will be shorter than longer.  Only two NHL regulars occur over the next 30 picks (James Reimer at #99 and Matt Beleskey at #112).
4-121 Pierre-Luc Lessard (DL, QMJHL) – CIS (Trois-Rivieres) bust
A high-scoring blueliner from the Q, he was never offered a contract and only had a cup of coffee as a pro (ECHL).  He’s a complete miss as a pick, but none of the next 30 selections have become regular NHLers.
5-151 Ryan Daniels (G, OHL) – CIS (Laurier) – bust
A rare goalie selection for the Sens, he is another player who was not offered a contract, but unlike Lessard didn’t even get that professional cup of coffee.  There are three regular NHLers over the next 30 picks, with Viktor Stalberg (#161) the most prominent.
6-181 Kevin Koopman (DR, KIJHL) – ACHA II (Brown) – bust
A prospect where the scouts did not do their homework, as Koopman retired to become a doctor before the Sens could think about offering him a contract.  Two regular NHLers were selected over the next 30 picks (with Derek Dorsett at #189 clearly the best).
7-211 Erik Condra (RW, NCAA) – NHL (Ottawa); 107 NHL games –  NHL regular (bottom-6 forward)
The third last pick of the draft, he finished up his college career, earned rookie of the year honours in Binghamton before becoming a solid attention to the regular lineup in the NHL.  Even though Condra has limited upside, to get a player this late is clearly a home run.

2007
Muckler was fired two weeks before the draft, so while this is nominally a Bryan Murray draft it’s basically following Muckler’s philosophy.  Not surprisingly, Murray traded away the team’s late round picks so that the next draft could fully follow his direction.  Not enough time has passed to truly assess how many hits and misses this draft had, but it’s a weaker draft for Ottawa (possibly worse than 2005).

1-29 Jim O’Brien (CR, NCAA; U-18) – RFA (Ottawa); 34 NHL games – marginal NHLer (fourth-liner)
After two mediocre years in the WHL and a terrible rookie season in the AHL, many thought O’Brien‘s days were numbered.  However, he turned his game around, won a Calder Cup, and did not look out of place with the Sens when called up this season.  The sample size is small, but it appears as though he can take a regular shift with the big boys, albeit in a supporting role.  Compared to the players taken before him, 6 have never played in the NHL (keeping in mind that Cherepanov tragically died), and 4 have played fewer games thus far.  Three regular NHLers were taken over the next 31 picks, with P. K. Subban (#43) the best of them.
2-60 Ruslan Bashkirov (LW, QMJHL) – VHL (Ryazan) – bust
The last Russian taken by Murray at the draft, Bashkirov is such a bust he can’t even play in the KHL.  This is the definition of a bad pick with Wayne Simmonds taken immediately after him (#61), granting that only one other (out of 30) is a definitive NHLer (Yannick Weber at #73).
3-90 Louie Caporusso (C/LW, OPJHL) – AHL (Binghamton) – potential AHLer
Despite a strong NCAA resume Caporusso struggled at the AHL level this season which is a bad sign for a college graduate.  He may have it in him to become a regular AHLer, but his NHL potential seems non-existent.  Currently there’s only 2 established NHLers taken over the next 30 picks (Alec Martinez at #95 and Matt Halischuk at #117), but 6 more seem likely to have similar status, making the pick look much worse.
4-120 Ben Blood (DL, USUS) – AHL (Binghamton) – potential marginal NHLer
There was a long wait for Blood, as he spent a year in the USHL and then four more at college before turning pro.  He has the potential to be a bruising bottom-pairing NHLer, but without significant pro experience it’s difficult to judge.  As Ottawa’s last pick in the draft he has to be compared to the rest of the selections (91 picks), where at least 6 players are either regular NHLers or on their way (the best being Jamie Benn at #129).  Given that neither Blood nor most of the rest of the players fates are set yet however, it’s hard to judge the pick.

July 2, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

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