Senators News: June 7th

Nichols transcribes Pierre Dorion’s interview on The Team and includes his thoughts.  These echo Dorion’s comments from last year, but a few things stuck out to me.  Talking about how they try to break players from giving just pat answers:

Well, maybe it’ll be a player whose work ethic was questionable and we’ll ask him why his work ethic isn’t really good. And we’ll give specific dates – on specific dates, ‘On this date and this date, we had this scouts here and he questioned why was that? What were you trying to do?’ Or, if it’s someone that’s a scorer that tells us that he’s scored and we’ve seen him 10 times, and he tells us we haven’t seen him score, ‘how come against these teams he didn’t score?’ – a little bit something along those lines.

How they approach the draft:

You never know what could happen – we could move up or we could move down, we’ve done that in the past. I’ve been doing this for quite a long time now, almost 20 years in the NHL, I have a pretty good idea at seventeen, if you give us a range of five or six players, we have a good idea what we’re doing. But, we always have surprises. I think as you mentioned last year, we had Cody Ceci in our top five and we ended up having him at fifteen. Bryan and Tim (Murray) have told me from day one, prepare for any scenario – whether it’s picking one, which I think maybe is not realistic, or picking five or picking whatever, as a group of scouts, we’re always prepared for any scenario. Even though sometimes it doesn’t matter, sometimes we’ll argue… this year we argued on five or six on our list because you never know what can happen and we want to be prepared for it.

His thoughts on mock drafts and trying to guess who other teams will pick:

I think we just do our own homework. I think mock drafts are great for fans and I think it’s great to see what your respective team might get (at their draft spot) but until the draft happens and the first sixteen players are taken, I don’t think the Ottawa Senators are really worried about what other teams are going to do. We have got to be good at what we do. We do do our homework. We have an idea of what players are going to go where through enough of our contacts, so we have a pretty good idea of what’s going on, but we might have a surprise. From that point of view, we might just wait for the first sixteen and then make our selection.

When asked to name the biggest surprises in terms of player development Dorion didn’t mention any surprising names, talking about Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Patrick Wiercioch, Eric Gryba, Mika Zibanejad, and Robin Lehner.

Dmitry Chesnokov reports that Sergei Gonchar is close to signing a KHL deal, but I believe this is largely posturing (Tavis Yost does too).  Everyone knows he could go make a pile of money playing in Russia, but clearly his goal is to play in the NHL.

-Here’s my look at the Senators roster decisions.

-Here are my reviews of McKeen’s and Hockey Prospects‘ 2013 NHL draft guides.

Andy McDonald was forced to announce his retirement due to post-concussion issues.  The NHL continues to not take the issue seriously and I expect that (like the NFL) legal action will ultimately be necessary before the league truly removes head shots (and perhaps fighting) from the game.

Stu Hackel takes a look at Pittsburgh’s struggles against Boston in the playoffs and believes a lack of discipline is a big part of the problem–it’s a characteristic of the Crosby era and clearly puts the Penguins on tilt.

-For those who remember my look at European free agents, one of the players from the previous year (Simon Moser) has been invited to Nashville’s training camp in the fall.  I’ll do a thorough review of my speculation after free agent madness is over.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators Roster Decisions

With the season over it’s time to look at Ottawa’s roster decisions this off-season.  I believe most of the decisions are straightforward, but I’ll list the full contract roster and go through all the RFA’s and UFA’s and then speculate on possible trade bait (next year’s rookies are marked in italics; players I expect to be re-signed are in green and those let go/may be traded are in red):

NHL
Forwards (15)
Daniel Alfredsson (UFA)
Peter Regin (UFA)
Guillaume Latendresse (UFA)
Erik Condra (RFA)
Jason Spezza
Milan Michalek
Kyle Turris
Chris Neil
Zack Smith
Mika Zibanejad
Cory Conacher
Jakob Silfverberg
Colin Greening
Jim O’Brien
Matt Kassian
Defensemen (9)
Sergei Gonchar (UFA)
Andre Benoit (UFA)
Mike Lundin (UFA)
Patrick Wiercioch (RFA)
Erik Karlsson
Chris Phillips
Marc Methot
Jared Cowen
Eric Gryba
Goaltenders (2)
Craig Anderson
Robin Lehner

AHL/ECHL
Forwards (18)
Hugh Jessiman (UFA)
Mike Hoffman (RFA)
Stephane Da Costa (RFA)
Corey Cowick (RFA)
David Dziurzynski (RFA)
Louie Caporusso (RFA)
Buddy Robinson
Stefan Noesen
Matt Puempel
Cole Schneider
Wacey Hamilton
Shane Prince
Mark Stone
Andre Petersson
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Jakub Culek
Derek Grant
Darren Kramer
Defensemen (8)
Mark Borowiecki (RFA)
Cody Ceci
Ben Blood
Troy Rutkowski
Fredrik Claesson
Michael Sdao
Tyler Eckford
Chris Wideman
Goaltenders (2)
Nathan Lawson (UFA)
Andrew Hammond

The easy decisions are letting Regin, Latendresse (the decision has already been made), Lundin, Jessiman, and Caporusso walk (Capgeek has the latter with another year on his deal, but that does not fit their prior listing for him–I don’t know if they were wrong before or are wrong now, but I think it’s the latter).  I don’t expect Lawson to stay–not that the Sens wouldn’t want a solid minor league goalie, but veteran goaltenders in the AHL rarely stay in one place–always looking for a better deal/opportunity.  Benoit might be let go if he insists on a one-way deal.  Da Costa may have run out of rope with the organisation, although he’s young enough that they may be able to trade him.  I believe Gonchar will depart for wherever he can land a two-year deal (I don’t think the Sens will offer him one).  The other UFA’s and RFA’s I expect to stay.

Of the signed players, there’s no need to keep Kassian, but it seems as though the organisation likes him so he may stay.  O’Brien appears to be on the way out the door and if he’s traded I’d expect a draft pick in return.  Hamilton hasn’t impressed in his first two seasons with Binghamton, but doesn’t have any trade value so he may stick around.  There’s going to be a big inject of talent in Binghamton with the arrival of three first round picks (Noesen, Pumpel, and Ceci), but they should easily slip into top positions abandoned by the Sens Swedes once the current NHL season commenced.  I haven’t listed Pageau as part of the NHL roster because I don’t think he’s guaranteed a spot–he’ll have to earn it in training camp.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Hockey Prospect’s 2013 NHL Draft Guide

The Hockey Prospect’s 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s go here and for their accuracy go here):

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Seth Jones
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Valeri Nichushkin
5. Aleksander Barkov
6. Sean Monahan
7. Elisa Lindholm
8. Nikita Zadorov
9. Rasmus Ristolainen
10. Max Domi
11. Bo Horvat
12. Alexander Wennberg
13. Valentin Zykov
14. Zach Fucale
15. Madison Bowey
16. Darnell Nurse
17. Joshua Morrissey
18. Samuel Morin
19. Anthony Mantha
20. Ryan Hartman
21. Curtis Lazar
22. Adam Erne
23. Morgan Klimchuk
24. Hunter Shinkaruk
25. Nicolas Petan
26. Chris Bigras
27. Emile Poirier
28. Kerby Rychel
29. Frederik Gauthier
30. Ryan Pulock

This is the so-called “Black Book” edition from Hockey Prospect‘s (their smaller, less expensive version is sold out–or so I presume, as I never saw it as ‘in stock’ on their website) and it has more girth than any other draft publication (nearly 700 pages).  It does not include any specific organisational material or a mock draft.  The bulk is made up of scouting profiles (for all 210 players listed and more) and lengthy scouting reports from various games and events.  The game reports are the one unique element for the product which is something that will appeal to a small slice of the fandom.  The product is a little more expensive than Future Considerations‘ guide, but cheaper than ISS, so among the full-listing guides it’s the kind of thing that is only going to appeal to hardcore draft fans.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

McKeen’s 2013 NHL Draft Guide

McKeen’s 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s review go here) [June 7th: McKeen’s has just updated their issue and I’ve included relevant material below]:

1. Seth Jones
2. Nathan MacKinnon
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Elias Lindholm
5. Aleksander Barkov
6. Valeri Nichushkin
7. Nikita Nadorov
8. Darnall Nurse
9. Max Domi
10. Samuel Morin
11. Sean Monahan
12. Curtis Lazar
13. Alexander Wennberg
14. Bo Horvat
15. Ryan Pulock
16. Andre Burakowsky
17. Mirco Mueller
18. Josh Morrissey
19. Robert Hagg
20. Adam Erne
21. Rasmus Ristolainen
22. Hunter Shinkaruk
23. Frederik Gauthier
24. Anthony Mantha
25. Kerby Rychel
26. Emile Poirer
27. Chris Bigras
28. Zachary Fucale
29. Ian McCoshen
30. Tommy Vannelli

There’s no mock draft, no organisational assessments, or anything other than scouting profiles for their 120-player list.  McKeen’s offers less material than most other guides (it’s slightly more than The Hockey News, but nearly seven times the cost), and is considerably more expensive than a more thorough guide like Future Considerations.   This is not something a draft junkie or a casual fan needs to get hold of.  [June 7th additions: 20 honourable mentions (listed alphabetically) along with 12 sleepers (also alphabetically).  Each player is given a scouting report, which is great, but without being organised they are less useful than other sources where players are numerically listed.]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 3rd

-The Sens rookie tournament will take place in London this year (playing with the Leafs, Penguins, and Blackhawks).

-Sens prospects Chris Driedger and Francois Brassard were both invited to Hockey Canada’s Program of Excellence goaltending camp.

Nichols indulges in Don Brennan’s speculation that the Sens should pursue Bryan Bickell in free agency, but quickly concludes he’s essentially Colin Greening and there’s not much sense in paying more for a player you already have.  I don’t see the point in the move either–the Sens aren’t in need of grinding forwards.

Nichols also peaks behind ESPN’s pay wall to look at Corey Pronman’s rising and falling prospects.  Cody Ceci is listed as falling:

Ceci was actually named an OHL second-team All-Star and ranked second among OHL defensemen in scoring. Even with that in mind, scouts I talked to came away with mixed feelings about Ceci‘s play this season. While his offensive ability is not at all in question, his play at the other end of the rink left some concerns. “His defense looked very average, if not bad,” one scout said. The defensive-end struggles were more evident during the first half of the OHL season, which may not have coincidentally led to a lack of an invite to Canada’s world juniors camp in his last season of U-20 eligibility. After being dealt from Ottawa to Owen Sound, Ceci‘s play picked up in the 27 games he played with Owen. He’s a dynamic skater who moves the puck well, with a good shot. As he enters his first pro season, it will be interesting to monitor how Ottawa’s staff works with him on his defensive issues.

But there’s some context that Nichols provides to belay that concern.  On the flipside, Pronman see’s Robin Lehner as rising (I’m not sure how he’d be seen any other way):

For years Lehner has been touted as a gifted goaltender but had yet to put it all together in a full season in North America. It all came together during the 2012-13 campaign. Lehner has been a brick wall in the AHL and during brief appearances in the NHL. He’s a big (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) goaltender with the athletic tools of an agile goalie half his size. He recovers quickly, generates a lot of power from his feet and shows good puck-tracking skills. Some small nitpicks with Lehner may be he’s not perfectly refined yet and could learn to be a little more technical. But when you’re stopping 93-94 percent of shots faced, it doesn’t seem to be that much of an issue.

-Sens prospect Jordan Fransoo (7-186/11) was not signed and has become a free agent.  Fransoo never really progressed, so the move comes as no surprise.  Speaking of prospects who are now free agents, although there’s still no official word, I have to assume Bryce Aneloski (7-196/10) is also not in the Sens plans.

Travis Yost wonders if the Sens will move Mika Zibanejad to the wing given their current situation at center and it’s certainly a possibility for next season.  I agree with Travis that ultimately Zibanejad himself may force the Sens to make space for him if he proves a better pivot than a winger.

Adnan thinks the Sens would like to keep Sergei Gonchar, but only on a one-year deal.  I don’t see him staying–if Ottawa won’t give him two years, someone else will.

Ryan Classic looks at Ottawa’s UFA’s and makes sensible guesses except for Mike Lundin (who should be in the “definitely won’t be re-signed” category), Nathan Lawson (veteran AHL-goalies generally don’t stick around in organisations), and Andre Benoit (who, if he insists on a one-way deal, may not be kept).

-Here’s my look back at the Sens regular season.

-Here’s my review of Future Considerations 2013 NHL draft guide.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Ottawa Senators: 2012-2013 Regular Season in Review

The Ottawa Senators finished 14th in the lockout-shortened NHL, with a record of 25-17-6 for 56 points; this represents a pro-rated 3-point (and 1 win) improvement over last season (when they were 16th in the league).  The team was 26th in scoring (dropping from 5th last year), which made them the lowest scoring team in the playoffs.  They were 4th in goals against (up from 24th last season), tied for 10th in goal differential (up from 14th), tied for 20th on the powerplay (down from 11th), had the league’s best penalty killing percentage (up from 20th), were 15th in 5-on-5 goals for/against (down from 11th), first in shots per game (up from 5th), 23rd in shots allowed per game (up from 29th), and 21st in faceoffs (down from 16th).  This was all accomplished with the 25th lowest payroll in the NHL (lower payrolls that made the playoffs: the Islanders (28th) and the Blues (29th)).

Back in January I made my prediction that the Sens would finish 9th and miss the playoffs, likely due to injury problems.  I was correct about the injuries, but not the team’s performance.  As in the previous season, the Sens initial lineup changed significantly throughout the season, this time due to injuries.  Unexpected players became regulars (Eric Gryba and Andre Benoit), while a number of rookies played their first NHL games (the aforementioned Gryba along with Jean-Gabriel Pageau, David Dziurzynski, and Derek Grant).  Ottawa made two trades, sending pending RFA Ben Bishop to Tampa for Cory Conacher, and giving up a 2014 6th round pick for pugilist Matt Kassian (they lost the popular but little-used Kaspars Daugavins via waivers).  None of the deals made much impact, which fits in with Bryan Murray’s mediocre trade track record in Ottawa.  Turris lead the team with a meagre 29 points; Wiercioch, Silfverberg, and Zibanejad were a team best +9, while Smith was a team worst -9.

Throughout the season I posted ten-game segments looking at how the Sens performed, so here’s a brief recap of the season that was:
The first ten games the Sens went 6-3-1 and were lead by Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson, and Milan Michalek; Craig Anderson put up ridiculous numbers, Jason Spezza was lost for the rest of the regular season, and the Mark Borowiecki experiment came and went
The next segment saw the Sens again go 6-3-1, with Colin Greening and Daniel Alfredsson leading the way with a meagre 5-points each; Craig Anderson continued to be excellent until he was injured and then Ben Bishop picked up the ball; Ottawa lost Karlsson, Michalek, the aforementioned Anderson, and the unproductive Peter Regin to injury; this year’s Stephane Da Costa experiment ended, while Gryba and Dziurzynski were added to the lineup
The next segment the Sens went 4-2-4 and were lead by Sergei Gonchar (his best stretch of games as a Sen) and Patrick Wiercioch; Robin Lehner had phenomenal numbers despite losing four games in extra time/shootouts, Marc Methot was somehow -7; Kassian was added to the lineup via trade, while Mark Stone was called up
The next segment saw the Sens go 4-6-0, lead by Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, and Methot; Anderson returned, Bishop was dealt (so Conacher was added) and Daugavins waived, Stone was sent down while Mike Hoffman and Pageau were called up
The final segment the Sens went 5-3-0 and were lead by Turris and Gonchar; Karlsson and Michalek returned to the lineup, Chris Neil was a team worst -4

Here’s a look at how the players performed throughout the season with my analysis and a grade for each player (A=outstanding season, B=above expectations, C=expectations met, D=below expectations, F=well below expectations), for players who played in the minors or other organisations, I’m only looking at how they did with Ottawa (TOI=time on ice, FO%=faceoff percentage, INJ=games missed due to injury, SCR=scratched):

Kyle Turris 48-12-17-29 +6 TOI 19:38 FO% 49.0 Grade C
In the absence of Jason Spezza, Turris demonstrated two things: he isn’t a first line center, but his production isn’t hurt by facing an opposing team’s top checkers.  We learned that Turris is a legitimate NHL-caliber 2nd-line center, but doesn’t have the juice to be more than that.

Sergei Gonchar 45-3-24-27 +4 TOI 23:59 INJ 3 Grade B
In the absence of Karlsson the 39-year old was able to carry enough weight for the team to make the playoffs.  His legs aren’t once what they were and he doesn’t have it in him to shut down the NHL’s elite, but he did more than was expected and the season is a nice send-off for the veteran who I do not expect to be re-signed by Ottawa.

Daniel Alfredsson 47-10-16-26 +1 TOI 19:20 INJ 1 Grade C
It was an unremarkable regular season for the captain, who remains an effective top-six forward, but simply can’t do it all on his own anymore.  While he raised his game to another level in the playoffs and has the juice to play another season of two, he needs people around him to step in and take over some of his offensive production.

Mika Zibanejad 42-7-13-20 +9 TOI 13:33 FO% 46.4 SCR 1 Grade B
Despite a mediocre debut in the AHL, Zibanejad was more productive at the NHL level, only looking overwhelmed when the Sens got into the playoffs.  He has defensive struggles and needs to improve on faceoffs, but as a 2o-year old there’s a lot more to look forward too.

Jakob Silfverberg 48-10-9-19 +9 TOI 16:13 Grade C
He was able to dominate in Binghamton and was close to a pro-rated 20-goal pace in his NHL rookie season.  Solid defensively, if he can add a little quickness he’ll be more productive at this level.

Colin Greening 47-8-11-19 +5 TOI 14:43 SCR 1 Grade C
Responded well after an early season benching.  He can’t produce consistently, but he’s an effective player who is good up and down the lineup.

Patrick Wiercioch 42-5-14-19 +9 TOI 15:41 SCR 6 Grade B
Finally got over the hump in the AHL and showed flashes of the same in the NHL.  Still lacks consistency and could use a little more strength, but there was a lot to like about his first season as a full-time NHLer.

Zack Smith 48-4-11-15 -9 TOI 15:08 Grade D
Despite having the full support of the coaching staff it was not a great year for Smith, who struggled at times on both sides of the puck.  I see it as an off-year rather than a trend.

Chris Phillips 48-5-9-14 -5 TOI 21:02 Grade C
The big rig continues to truck along; when he’s playing protected minutes on the third-pairing he’s very effective, but he when that changes he starts to break down.  I have no idea why he keeps appearing on the Sens powerplay.

Milan Michalek 23-4-10-14 +8 TOI 18:11 INJ 25 Grade D
This season represents what we’ve come to expect from the big Czech winger–missing huge parts of the season because of injury.  Even if healthy I thought there was no chance for him to score like he did in his career season last year.  Can he come back and be productive after yet more surgery?  Time will tell, but you do have to wonder when the penny will drop and his career gets derailed by his body.

Erik Karlsson 17-6-8-14 +8 TOI 27:09 INJ 31 Grade B
He came back too soon from injury, but when healthy he was all-world and would have challenged for the Norris trophy.  The question that remains is what shape will he be in when the season starts?

Chris Neil 48-4-8-12 Even TOI 13:51 Grade C
More of the same from the Sens tough winger; his goal-scoring was a bit low, but offence isn’t really what the team is looking for from him.

Erik Condra 48-4-8-12 +3 TOI 13:10 Grade C
One of the smartest players on the team, I can’t help but wonder how productive he’d be if he had more finish around the net.  A useful player who helps drive puck possession, expect more of the same next season.

Marc Methot 47-2-9-11 +2 TOI 22:13 INJ 1 Grade B
I didn’t know what to expect from the big blueliner when Murray traded for him last summer, but he was better than I expected.  He was excellent when paired with Karlsson and continued to be excellent without him.

Andre Benoit 33-3-7-10 -3 TOI 16:25 SCR 15 Grade B
I’m not sure that Benoit has established himself as an NHLer, but he did a good job filling in while the Sens were short on the blueline.  It’s a little ominous for his future that he was scratched down the stretch run, but there will always be work somewhere for him as long as he stays healthy.

Guillaume Latendresse 27-6-4-10 -2 TOI 14:48 INJ 19 SCR 2 Grade D
My expectations weren’t high for the plodding winger and he managed to slip even under those.  He has good hands, but can’t keep up with the pace and simply doesn’t use his size enough to be truly effective.  As expected, injury cost him a good chunk of the season.

Eric Gryba 33-2-4-6 -3 TOI 20:16 SCR 1 Grade B
Long touted by the organisation as a good depth player, he got more than just a look this year beating out Borowiecki as a full time player on the team.  There were a lot of struggles for him, but Paul MacLean gave him tough minutes which is a sign he believes Gryba can handle it.  One wonders where he fits in with the Sens plans next season.

Jim O’Brien 29-5-1-6 -2 TOI 11:25 FO% 45.7 INJ 4 SCR 15 Grade D
After a hot start O’Brien quickly slipped down the depth chart until he was an afterthought in the pressbox.  No one seems sure what it is that O’Brien did to lose his spot on the roster, but the future is bleak for him going forward.

Jason Spezza 5-2-3-5 +3 TOI 19:10 FO% 57.1 INJ 43 Grade incomplete
Looked dynamic to start the season, but yet another back injury derailed his season.

Cory Conacher 12-2-3-5 +6 TOI 12:50 Grade C
After a hot start with the Lightning the diminutive forward continued mediocre play with the Sens.  There’s a lot to like about his tenacity, but he needs to work on his play without the puck.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau 9-2-2-4 +3 TOI 11:29 FO% 48.8 Grade incomplete
A sensation in the playoffs there was a lot to like about the undersized rookie in his brief debut.  Was it all a flash in the pan?  Can he continue that level of play next season?  He’ll get the opportunity, but time will tell.

Kaspars Daugavins 19-1-2-3 -7 TOI 11:25 SCR 12 Grade F
A popular player, it was not a great season for Daugavins who earned a spot on the bench and then on the waiver wire.  I’m not convinced he’ll ever be an NHL regular, although his positive attitude may see him as a 13th forward for awhile.

Peter Regin 27-0-3-3 -4 TOI 11:31 FO% 43.8 INJ 7 SCR 14 Grade F
I like the Dane, but clearly the injuries have taken too much away from his play for him to be a useful NHL forward.  The offense is gone and he’s too fragile to grind it out.  I expect him to be in Europe next season.

David Dziurzynski 12-2-0-2 -1 TOI 12:32 INJ 6 Grade incomplete
His brief debut included two surprises: goals (he doesn’t produce much in the AHL) and being knocked out in his first NHL fight.  I don’t know that Dizzy has enough talent to ever be an NHL regular, but he played well in his brief time in the league.

Stephane Da Costa 9-1-1-2 -3 TOI 11:51 FO% 60.9 Grade incomplete
This might have been the end of the line for Da Costa who seems to be at the same level that he was last season and is getting surpassed by other players in the organisation.  There’s talent there, but conditioning and defensive play remain his issues.

Mike Lundin 11-0-1-1 -2 TOI 15:30 INJ 23 SCR 14 Grade F
It was an ugly year for the free agent signee, who did absolutely nothing to demonstrate he can still play in the league.

Matt Kassian 15-1-0-1 Even TOI 6:22 SCR 6 Grade incomplete
What can you say about a one-dimensional enforcer?  He dropped the gloves a few times.

Jared Cowen 7-1-0-1 +1 TOI 20:17 INJ 41 Grade incomplete
A wasted year for the big blueliner, who wasn’t himself when he returned from injury.  Watch for him to bounce back next season.

Derek Grant 5-0-0-0 -1 TOI 8:39 FO% 54.8 SCR 1 Grade incomplete
Did not look ready for the big time in his limited debut, but I can see what the Sens are hoping from him (a checking third line center who can score).

Mark Borowiecki 6-0-0-0 TOI 12:59 SCR 4 Grade incomplete
The stage was set for the Borocop to be an NHL regular this year, but instead he lost his roster spot to Gryba.  He has a lot of great intangibles and it will be interesting to see how he does in training camp in the fall.

Mike Hoffman 3-0-0-0 -1 TOI 12:19 INJ 12 Grade incomplete
The idea of Hoffman as a second line forward makes no sense to me, but there might be space for him as a third line player.  He just doesn’t have enough on his resume to be sure, but he has played long enough in the AHL to demonstrate he doesn’t produce enough at that level to score a lot in the NHL.

Mark Stone 4-0-0-0 -1 TOI 10:00 Grade incomplete
Had an up and down year in Binghamton complicated by injury; was decent in limited time with Ottawa, but didn’t show enough of his hands to guarantee himself a spot next season.

Craig Anderson 12-9-5 1.69 .941 INJ 12 Grade A
It was a great season for Andy; fantastic until he was injured.  He was a huge part of the team making the playoffs, his collapse against the Penguins notwithstanding.

Robin Lehner 5-3-4 2.20 .936 Grade B
He’s finally made it as a full time player as the team got rid of Bishop.  There was never any question about his talent, just his conditioning and his mental toughness.  He’ll push Anderson next season and is great security in case of injury.

Ben Bishop 8-5-0 2.45 .922 Grade C
Couldn’t out shine Lehner in the AHL and wasn’t able to do so in the NHL either.  I’m not sure he’s consistent enough to be a starting goaltender, but he may get that chance in Tampa.

The season was a success not just because of the modest gains in the standings (and subsequent playoff run), but because of Ottawa’s resilience in the face of key injuries.  Besides the goaltenders no player truly stood out with an especially strong year, but the sum of the whole proved greater than the parts.  There’s a lot to absorb and a number of conclusions to be made (a full discussion of changes for next season is forthcoming).  Various peripheral pieces of the team played their way off it (some during the season, others now in the off-season), while others have staked their place in the roster going forward.  Looking ahead the Sens will continue to need improvement from within, especially when it comes to scoring.  It was an entertaining year and I think fans are safe in expecting more of them in the future.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Future Considerations 2013 NHL Draft Guide

Future Considerations 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings and my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s go here; for their predictive accuracy go here):

1). D Seth Jones, Portland, WHL, 6-4, 205

2). C/RW Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax, QMJHL, 6-0, 180

3). C/LW Jonathan Drouin, Halifax, QMJHL, 5-11, 175

4). C Aleksander Barkov, Tappara, SM-liiga, 6-2, 205

5). RW Valeri Nichushkin, Traktor Chelyabinsk, KHL, 6-4, 200

6). C Elias Lindholm, Brynas, Elitserien, 6-0, 185

7). D Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste. Marie, OHL, 6-5, 195

8). C Sean Monahan, Ottawa, OHL, 6-2, 195

9). LW Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat, WHL, 5-10, 170

10). C/LW Max Domi, London, OHL, 5-10, 195

11). D Nikita Zadorov, London, OHL, 6-5, 225

12). D Rasmus Ristolainen, TPS, SM-Liiga, 6-3, 205

13). LW Alexander Wennberg, Djurgården, Allsvenskan, 6-0, 175

14). D Ryan Pulock, Brandon, WHL, 6-1, 210

15). D Josh Morrissey, Prince Albert, WHL, 6-0, 185

16). C Frederik Gauthier, Rimouski, QMJHL, 6-5, 215

17). C Curtis Lazar, Edmonton, WHL, 6-0, 195

18). LW Anthony Mantha, Val-d ‘Or, QMJHL, 6-3, 200

19). LW Valentin Zykov, Baie-Comeau, QMJHL, 6-0, 210

20). D Shea Theodore, Seattle, WHL, 6-2, 175

21). LW Morgan Klimchuk, Regina, WHL, 5-11, 180

22). RW Ryan Hartman, Plymouth, OHL, 5-11, 185

23). C Bo Horvat, London, OHL, 6-0, 195

24). D Robert Hägg, Modo J20, SuperElit, 6-2, 205

25). LW André Burakovsky, Malmo, Allsvenskan, 6-1, 175

26). LW Kerby Rychel, Windsor, OHL, 6-1, 200

27). C Nic Petan, Portland, WHL, 5-9, 165

28). RW Adam Erne, Quebec, QMJHL, 6-0, 200

29). C J.T. Compher, U-17 USDP, USHL, 6-0, 165

30). C Connor Hurley, Edina, USHS, 6-1, 175

31). D Madison Bowey, Kelowna, WHL, 6-1, 195

In FC‘s mock draft they have Ottawa selecting Samuel Morin, saying:

They need have some talent coming but could boost their defensive pool. Ottawa is the first to go off the board as they take this big kid who has jumped up many lists after a very impressive season of development. They like his size, willingness to use that size and upside, especially in his own zone.

Last year they expected Ottawa to take Hampus Lindholm, but the Swede was no longer on the board when Ottawa made their selection.  The Sens rarely draft for need so expect them to take the best player available.  FC‘s mock draft extends through the second round, but the Sens don’t have a second-rounder to select this year so there’s nothing further to examine.

There’s no assessment of the organisation beyond the above comment, but they do offer a comment about the quality of this year’s draft:

We do not see a generational talent in this current draft crop. We do however project one franchise talent in Portland defenseman in Seth Jones. After Jones, we project upwards of seven ‘elite’ level talents with another forty plus ‘skilled’ prospects. That is where the strength of this class comes from, the depth of skilled talent as well as the amount of elite talent at the top. There is more than few ‘depth’ guys, many with good NHL size too, sprinkled around a bunch of wildcards that ultimately could make this a class to remember.

The guide contains profiles of varying extent for all 210 prospects listed and at less than half the cost of ISS and over 30% cheaper than McKeen’s it’s a worthwhile product to buy for draft enthusiasts.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: May 30th

-It’s Sens post-mortem time across the blogosphere and Nichols weighs in, providing brilliant context to the season that was which includes this gem:

The fact that management willingly parlayed an asset to acquire Matt Kassian, the realization that this was a bit of a lost season dawned on many of us

After going through all the positives he poses an obvious question:

You have to wonder whether the Senators’ goaltending may have masked the deficiencies this team had

Clearly they did and the open question Nichols’ leaves us with is whether there will be regression or not.  The positive is that the organisation feels confident in both their goaltenders, so if one falters they have a Plan B.  Nichols then wonders if the Sens are truly a contender going into next season:

The Senators are short on elite talent and problematically, each of its best offensive forwards are entering the final years of their respective deals and given their age and health issues, with the exception of Daniel Alfredsson, the  in Ottawa’s best interests to retain Milan Michalek or Jason Spezza.  Compounding the problem is that there is no one internally who can replace an Alfie, a Spezza or even a Michalek. Hell, they probably will have a difficult time replacing Gonchar’s minutes should the veteran defenceman find a better fit (read: one who gives him the money and term he’s looking for) on the free agent market.  In a nutshell, the Senators are left with two options: 1) they can move assets for an already established NHL player who can conceivably help this team for years to come; or 2) they can move a number of pieces in an effort to move up in the draft.

I partially agree with him in the context of next season.  Of the players mentioned Spezza‘s production simply can’t be replaced outside the draft or a monumental trade, while I think Michalek and Gonchar are more easily replaced (the former is rarely healthy and outside of last season his production wasn’t remarkable; I anticipate Patrick Wiercioch will provide a good chunk of offense produced by a declining Gonchar).  Can/should the Sens try to move up in the draft or make a deal?  I’m just not sure the team gets better exchanging one needed asset to acquire another–what do they have in abundance that they can afford to give up?

It’s a great article and I highly recommend it (although Nichols needs to figure out how to keep the ads on his site from blocking the text or his articles).

-Travis Yost examines a pair of playoff performances (here and here), beginning by looking at how much Alfredsson excelled in the Sens loss to Pittsburgh and how awful Jared Cowen was in the playoffs overall.  Yost wonders if Cowen will be ready for top-four duty next season, but admits there’s no other option as things stand.  If he’s healthy I think he’ll be fine, although a lot depends on who he is paired with.

Bryan Murray believes the Sens need a scorer in their prime, but it’s difficult to see how they could land such a player (free agency is not remotely promising).

-It doesn’t seem like news, but Ottawa has told Guillaume Latendresse that he won’t be back next season.  Unable to produce enough, the painfully slow Latendresse will be looking for a new team via free agency.

Don Brennan offers his grades for the season and doesn’t offer any particularly egregious assessments (his grade for Patrick Wierioch is a little low and Chris Neil is too high, but given his normal penchant for outright ridiculousness it’s not bad).

-Here’s my look at the ISS Draft Guide.

Allan Maki talks about the NHL’s relief that Stephen Walkom’s embarrassing performance can be ignored since Chicago ultimately won their game.  This isn’t Walkom’s first horror show and runs with how consistently awful NHL officiating has been (despite empty apologetics from Mark Spector).

Brian Cazeneuve offers a retrospective on John Tortorella’s time as head coach of the Rangers.  There’s not much love in the media for Tortorella, but for entertainment’s sake I’d love to see him back with TSN.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

ISS 2013 Draft Guide

The ISS 2013 NHL draft guide has been released and here’s my look at the guide (for last year’s go here).  ISS does not rank goaltenders and skaters together (20 of the former, 200 of the latter), making them the only purchased draft product that fails to make a unified list (Central Scouting separates their lists ever more radically, but it’s a free service).  ISS was dead last in drafting acumen (you can check it out here).  Here is their top-30 (which differs slightly from what they just released).

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Seth Jones
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Valery Nichushkin
5. Sasha Barkov
6. Darnell Nurse
7. Elias Lindholm
8. Nikita Zadorov
9. Sean Monahan
10. Bo Horvat
11. Rasmus Ristolainen
12. Curtis Lazar
13. Hunter Shinkaruk
14. Ryan Pulock
15. Alexander Wennberg
16. Andre Burakowsky
17. Steve Santini
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Valentin Zykov
20. Kerby Rychel
21. Joshua Morrissey
22. Madison Bowey
23. Michael McCarron
24. Anthony Mantha
25. Max Domi
26. J.T. Compher
27. Dillon Heatherington
28. Ian McCoshen
29. Nic Petan
30. Chris Bigras

Zachary Fucale is their top goaltender, followed by Tristan Jarry and Eamon McAdam.

ISS assessed each team’s prospect pool assigning them a grade and here’s how the league looks to them:

A
Edmonton
B+
Ottawa, Philadelphia, Washington, Boston, Winnipeg, St. Louis, Chicago
B
Anaheim, Minnesota, Florida, Montreal, New York Islanders,
B-
Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Buffalo, Phoenix, Nashville, Los Angeles, Colorado
C+
Columbus, Calgary, Detroit, Vancouver, New Jersey, Carolina,
C
Dallas
C-
San Jose

Last year ISS ranked Ottawa’s prospects with a B grade.  They’ve listed Patrick Wiercioch, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jakob Silfverberg, and Ben Blood (of all people) as “on the horizon”.  Unlike last year there’s no list of team needs, but the players selected above match the 2012 list minus Robin Lehner (presumably graduated) and Ben Bishop (now “on the horizon” for Tampa).  In their mock draft they have the Sens picking Andre Burakowsky, saying:

Burakowsky plays the game with a lot of skill. His game seemed to fall off a little this year and he slipped in the rankings according. He could be a steal if he regains his mojo.

This is a very expensive product and isn’t meant for casual draft fans.  It’s a useful guide for serious fantasy/draft fans who want scouting reports for all listed prospects, but that’s the only thing that separates it from inexpensive alternatives like The Hockey News.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: May 28th

Jason Spezza returned to playoff action with a torn meniscus and will have surgery to repair it in the off-season.

Jakob Silfverberg talked about what he wanted to improve for next season:

I want to score more goals, I guess. You’ve got to take (the puck) to the net, you’ve got to drive the net hard and that’s one thing I’m trying to learn every day. You’ve got to be able to be tough (at the) net and go through some guys and be harder around the net.  You’ve got to go faster, they’re so quick. That’s where we want to be in a couple of years and that’s where I want to be in a couple of years, too.

Mark Parisi comes out swinging in his final Ups & Downs for the final week that was, criticising Craig Anderson after the fact, but even in the criticism he tries to offer excuses.  I don’t know why the blogging community struggles so much with pointing out that Anderson wasn’t good against the Penguins–it doesn’t make him a bad goaltender, it just means he was in the series (and the regular season).  The fact that Andy himself was offering up excuses bothers me a lot more than his performance (has any other Ottawa goaltender gotten away with that?).  Mark’s other arrows are all over the place and I’m not going to go through them all.

Dave Young makes the assumption that because an injury-rattled Sens team couldn’t score in the playoffs against Pittsburgh they need scoring depth (Ken Warren makes the same assumption).  Do they?  I really don’t know–the full team only played five games together and that’s not enough time to mean anything.  Every team could use more goal scorers, but Ottawa won’t land any prime fish in free agency (Warren is smoking something to think the Sens could land David Clarkson) so they are going to have to look within for goals.

-The WTYKY lads got together for a round table of death (no one died) to discuss the season that was for Ottawa.  The fellahs are positive about things going forward.  They debated keeping Sergei Gonchar, but I agree with James that it’s a no-brainer that they let him walk.  James pats himself on the back for predicting Jean-Gabriel Pageau to break out, but his argument that this is definitely different from Bobby Butler, Peter Regin, or the cast of thousands who have looked good over a short period of time isn’t convincing.  I think Pageau will remain a useful player, but the sample size is too small to be certain.

Jeremy Milks offers his roster decisions (let’s recall that Jeremy thought Zenon Konopka and Matt Carkner needed to be retained last season) and decides Jim O’Brien, Guillaume Latendresse, Peter Regin, and Mike Lundin are likely gone (agreed), while (surprise!) he thinks Matt Kassian should be retained.  He’s unsure about Sergei Gonchar (my thoughts above) and Andre Benoit, but with Benoit wanting a one-way deal I suspect he is gone as well.

-Speaking of Benoit, he believes he has proven he’s an everyday NHL player.  That may be true, but I don’t think it will be with the Sens.

Bryce Aneloski‘s Allen Americans won the President’s Cup (the CHL championship), although he never suited up after the first round.

Jordan Fransoo (along with Aneloski) are on the clock for their rights to be reliquished by the Sens.

-ISS has released its latest 2013 draft rankings (for their previous list go here):

Rank Name Pos. Birthdate Shot H W Team League Last Rank
1 Nathan MacKinnon C 9/1/95 R 6.00 182 Halifax QMJHL 2
2 Seth Jones D 10/3/94 R 6.03.5 208 Portland WHL 1
3 Jonathan Drouin LW 3/27/95 L 5.10.75 185 Halifax QMJHL 3
4 Valeri Nichushkin RW 3/4/95 L 6.04 202 Chelyabinsk Traktor KHL 4
5 Sasha Barkov C 9/2/95 L 6.03 209 Tappara FinE 5
6 Darnell Nurse D 2/4/95 L 6.03.5 189 Sault Ste. Marie OHL 6
7 Elias Lindholm C 12/2/94 R 6.00 192 Brynas SweE 7
8 Nikita Zadorov D 4/15/95 L 6.05.25 230 London OHL 8
9 Sean Monahan C 10/12/94 L 6.02 186 Ottawa OHL 9
10 Bo Horvat C 4/5/95 L 6.00.25 200 London OHL 10
11 Rasmus Ristolainen D 10/27/94 R 6.04 207 TPS Turku FinE 11
12 Curtis Lazar C 2/2/95 R 5.11.75 193 Edmonton WHL 12
13 Hunter Shinkaruk C 10/13/94 L 5.11 175 Medicine Hat WHL 13
14 Ryan Pulock D 10/6/94 R 6.00.5 211 Brandon WHL 14
15 Alexander Wennberg C 9/22/94 L 6.01.5 190 Djurgarden SweJE 15
16 Andre Burakowsky LW 2/9/95 L 6.01.5 178 Malmo SweAl 16
17 Steve Santini D 3/7/95 R 6.01.5 207 USA Under-18 NTDP 17
18 Frederik Gauthier C 4/26/95 L 6.05 210 Rimouski QMJHL 18
19 Valentin Zykov RW 5/15/95 R 6.00 210 Baie-Comeau QMJHL 19
20 Kerby Rychel LW 10/7/94 L 6.01 200 Windsor OHL 20
21 Josh Morrissey D 3/28/95 L 5.11.75 182 Prince Albert WHL 21
22 Madison Bowey D 4/22/95 R 6.00.75 200 Kelowna WHL 22
23 Anthony Mantha LW 9/16/94 L 6.04 190 Val d’Or QMJHL 23
24 JT Compher C 4/8/95 R 5.10.5 184 USA Under-18 NTDP 24
25 Max Domi C 3/2/95 L 5.09.25 193 London OHL 25
26 Nicolas Petan C 3/22/95 L 5.08.5 163 Portland WHL 26
27 Dillon Heatherington D 5/9/95 L 6.03 196 Swift Current WHL 27
28 Michael McCarron RW 3/7/95 R 6.05 228 USA Under-18 NTDP 28
29 Chris Bigras D 2/22/95 L 6.00.5 189 Owen Sound OHL 29
30 Samuel Morin D 7/12/95 L 6.07 200 Rimouski QMJHL 30

Almost no positions changed except at the very top.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

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