I haven’t written a profile since Pius Suter was in Ottawa’s camp last August, so we’re overdue. Summers isn’t signed yet, but I’m assuming he will be. He was drafted way back in 2014 and that was a very different time–Jason Spezza and Robin Lehner were still part of the team; Jared Cowen and Patrick Wiercioch were still part of the future; Matt Kassian and a returning Joe Corvo were providing…laughter? Bryan Murray was the GM, Paul MacLean the coach, and trades were being made for a non-existent playoff run (alas Rob Vollman picked the team to win the President’s Trophy). When the season was over we were assured next season would be different. On my end of things I was making prescient analysis of prospects in Binghamton; Nichols wanted more two-way players; Jeremy Milks was still writing about the team; and Travis Yost was still at Hockeybuzz.
Kelly Summers DOB 1996 DR 6’2 7-189/14
CCHL Carleton Place 56-17-43-60 1.07 1st/5th in scoring (played with Andrew Sturtz)
NCAA Clarkson 33-6-4-10 0.30 2nd/10th
NCAA Clarkson 37-3-11-14 0.37 3rd/8th
NCAA Clarkson 39-3-14-17 0.43 2nd/9th (played with Nico Sturm)
NCAA Clarkson 40-6-24-30 0.75 1st/4th (ibid)
Local boy when drafted was projected as either a bottom or second-pairing two-way defenseman. While at Clarkson he was behind Detroit pick James de Haas (6-170/12, see below) and, sometimes, Flyer pick Terrance Amorosa (5-132/13), both of whom are left-hand shots. Summers‘ numbers aren’t overwhelming and he only lead the blueline in scoring his senior year, but they did steadily improve.
When looking at projections, who can we compare him too? Not many players drafted from tier-2 Canadian junior spend four years in college with steadily improving numbers (his senior year he was tied for 22nd in blueline scoring in the NCAA). In going through players drafted the five years before him (2009-2013) virtually no one has that exact trajectory:
2009: Kyle Bigos, Curtis Gedig, Jeremy Price
2010: Julian Melchiori, Benjamin Gallacher, Isaac Macleod
2011: Michael Paliotta, Josh Manson, Sam Jardine, Brennan Serville
2012: Reece Wilcox, Rhett Holland, James de Haas, Matthew Benning, Ben Hutton
2013: Carson Soucy, Dane Birks, Mike Williamson, Nolan De Jong
One free agent college player (Brady Lamb) also fit the same general profile
Virtually all of these players can easily be dismissed with just these two exceptions: Ben Hutton and teammate James de Haas. Why these two? Hutton is the simplest, as he was also drafted from the CCHL; his college numbers don’t track out the same way, but we’ll get back to that. De Haas was a BCHL grad and had the same four full years in college with steadily increasing numbers (including a final high as a senior). Let’s look at their numbers from the year they were drafted until they turned pro:
Ben Hutton: CCHL 0.75 NCAA 0.44 0.82 0.53
James de Haas: BCHL 0.45 NCAA 0.34 0.41 0.44 0.78
In both cases Summers had better junior numbers–indeed, his CCHL totals are generally better than all the above players listed–but his college numbers are lower then our two comparables (if ever so slightly from de Haas). Hutton‘s NCAA totals are very different–he was at Maine for three years where he lead the blueline in scoring every time (the team’s leading scorer was Dallas draft pick Devin Shore–no relation to the Sens draft pick Quentin). De Haas, on the other hand, spent four years at Clarkson (playing with Summers for two, as well as current BSen Ben Sexton as a freshman). Other than his first year he was the top scoring blueliner each season.
Hutton, whose comparison isn’t as apt, went straight to the NHL, so there are no AHL numbers to look at. De Haas, on the other hand, who is a much better match, spent half a season with Lehigh Valley this year (33-1-10-11, or 0.33), and I think those numbers–projecting to 25 points–are reasonable to expect for Summers (if a little lower, with variation depending on how he’s deployed). As an NHL prospect those scouting impressions when he was drafted haven’t changed, albeit he’s likely going to fit the lower projections, so a bottom-pairing player.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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